Poll: 2008 Oscar Hopefuls

Fierce chart you guys devised here. All the more impressive when you consider that these are the results of a poll we took on Feb 27th, three days after this year’s awards (when you were all hung over on whiskey and SunnyD). Pulled this out of the archives when I read Jason Darby’s fine article a few days ago, to see how his five Best Picture choices synced up with what we were thinking 6 months ago. Jason’s five choices match up with the poll’s top six (He places Milk over Doubt), with the only omission being The Dark Knight. Blame me for that, for not having the imagination to include it in the poll. (Though we made up for the neglect 3 days later, with another poll called Blockbusters with the Best Buzz where TDK topped the list.

We know a lot more now than we did in February, and a few things have changed (we probably won’t see The Reader this year.). A good time to take another measure of our gut feelings? I think so. For the purpose of this fresh poll, here’s how I’d like to phrase the question: “Which five movies will come away with the highest total number of Oscar nominations?” Don’t think exclusively about Best Picture for this survey, ok? Make your choices in terms of which films will carry the biggest bundle of nominations across the board, in any category.

To save space on the main page, the actual poll is waiting after the cut. Vote for 5 titles, but please restrict your selections to no more than 5. Which five films will score the greatest number of noms? In the comments, you can be more specific if you like. Itemize or let us know your predicted tallies. (i.e., Revolutionary Road – 9, The Dark Knight – 8, Australia – 7, etc.)



  • http://www.oscarnazi.blogspot.com The Oscar Nazi

    Curious Case of Banjamin Button – 11
    Revolutionary Road – 8
    WALL-E – 6
    Changeling – 5
    Frost/Nixon – 5
    The Dark Knight – 5
    Defiance – 5
    Doubt – 5

  • Scott

    what’s with the mccain banner?

  • The Natural





    Really not so sure about the next one, but I went with MILK for whatever reason.

  • The Natural

    Actually now that I think about it WALL-E will probably get 6, so I guess that would be next.

  • http://runslikeagay.blogspot.com/ BJT

    Thinking logically there are 3 types of films which get high nomination points:

    The Acting showcases (Revolutionary Road, Doubt etc)

    The Sweeping Epics (Benjamin Button, Australia etc)

    The technical breakthroughs (by which I mean films that would generally only get tech nods but breakthrough into over categories) (Dark Knight, Wall-E etc)

    From those 6 I’ve dropped doubt due to my doubts (sorry) about the director.

  • chrisw

    Benjamin Button-11
    The Dark Knight-10
    The Changeling-8
    Miracle at St.Anna-7

  • jennybee

    I think The Dark Knight will have the most nominations, just because it’s a strong contender or shoe-in for ALL the technicals, plus Heath will get nommed and it’s making a strong case for many of the other majors, bound to get noms in more categories than it misses.

    For films that aren’t as tech-heavy, the Acad seems to be doing a lot more splitting the loot amongst a bunch of films of late, so I predict we’ll see once again see many feature films with 1-4 nominations, a few with 5 or six and just a couple or so with 8 or more.

  • dc

    Gran Torino – 7

  • http://www.insidethegold.com Dorothy Porker

    The Dark Knight – 9
    Revolutionary Road – 7
    Australia – 6
    The Curious Case – 5
    Milk – 5

  • Daniel

    This is tough…
    I do think Appaloosa will surprise us yet, so I went ahead and added a vote to it for the heck of it.
    Also voted for Australia, Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight and Changeling, though I can’t say how many noms they’ll each get….its all so up in the air at this point. I also wanted to include Doubt, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon.

  • Habsburg

    Ben Button – 9
    The Dark Knight – 9
    Australia – 8
    Revolutionary Road – 7
    The Miracle at Saint Anna – 6

  • Xavi Rodriguez

    Nominees for Best Picture:
    Ben Button – 11
    The Dark Knight – 9
    Changeling – 6
    Milk – (I’m not sure) 5/6
    The Road – 7

  • Tim

    Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight
    Revolutionary Road

  • Casey F.

    Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 10-12
    The Dark Knight – 8-10
    Revolutionary Road – 7-9
    Australia – 7-9
    Wall-E – 5-7

  • James W.

    Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight
    Gran Torino
    Revolutionary Road

  • Matheus H.

    Right now, at this state of the race, I think the two movies that have most chances to be nominated for various categories are Benjamin Button and Dark Knight. Australia will be nominated to many technical categories, and if it ends up being an epic much like …Gone with the wind, it can wind up with 10+ nominations. Milk and Revolutionary Road will have the top honors (acting, directing, etc.)

    Ben Button- 11 noms (Picture, Dir, Actor, Supporting Actress, Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup, Art Direction, Editing, Costume Design)

    Dark Knight- 9 noms (Picture, Dir, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Art Direction)

    Australia- 8 noms (Picture, Dir, Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Art Direction, Makeup, Sound Mixing)

    Milk- 7 noms (Picture, Dir, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Art Direction, Editing)

    Revolutionary Road- 7 noms (Picture, Dir, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Soundtrack)

  • RichardA

    Revolutionary Road leads the nominations.

  • The Natural

    Lol, all THE DARK KNIGHT delusion is saddening.

    Bold Statement: THE DARK KNIGHT will receive only 3 nominations, for Heath Ledger and both sounds.

    Picture? Lol.
    Director? Lol.
    Cinematography? Doesn’t stand out in the least.
    Art Direction? WHERE? For building Chicago? LOL.
    Makeup: Okay, maybe.

    Not happenin’ folks.

  • tom

    I don’t think Ben Button will get many nominations.
    If it cah get many nominations, Tim Burton should have gotten many nominations.

  • XanderLJ

    You’re a fucking MORON, Mr. Silicone (aka Natural).

    Just because douches like you can’t comprehend a brilliant film that happens to be a superhero summer movie doesn’t mean it’s not an Oscar front-runner. It most definitely IS. It will NOT only get three nods. Makeup is also a lock, art direction probably, and, yes, it has a very strong chance for Picture and Director nominations.

    I’m making a list on the computer of all you knuckleheads who are mocking the pundits (pundits with much more experience than any of you trouser-stains) saying DK will be a mayor Oscar player, just so I can mock and bash your collective stupidity in January.


  • http://www.incontention.com Guy Lodge

    Some of my the following tallies don’t feel quite right to me, but that’s how it all added up when I did my predictions: http://www.incontention.com/?page_id=446

    Revolutionary Road: 11
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: 10
    Australia: 8
    The Road: 8
    Happy-Go-Lucky: 5

    Oh, and five for WALL-E too – just no Picture nod.

  • http://www.berserkertheplay.com Paul Outlaw

    Appaloosa: 7
    Changeling: 7
    The Dark Knight: 9
    Revolutionary Road: 12
    The Soloist: 7

  • http://nhmehta.blogspot.com Neel Mehta

    This is a much easier question than asking for the five Best Picture nominees, because there are always those films that seem destined to make the Picture shortlist but end up with 4-6 noms total. This year those would include Frost/Nixon, Doubt, and maybe Milk.

    To get 6 or more nominations requires an inroads into the tech categories, and that’s where films like Australia, The Dark Knight, Benjamin Button, and Revolutionary Road will do well.

    I see some love here for the Clint Eastwood films, but history doesn’t necessarily back you up. (For these purposes, a “tech” nomination is one NOT in acting, writing, producing, or directing.)

    Letters from Iwo Jima: 4 noms (0 acting, 1 tech)
    Flags of Our Fathers: 2 noms (0 acting, 2 tech)
    Million Dollar Baby: 7 noms (3 acting, 1 tech)
    Mystic River: 6 noms (3 acting, 0 tech)
    Unforgiven: 9 noms (2 acting, 4 tech)

    Of these, only Unforgiven led the field in its year, and it was tied with Howards End. Mystic River did about as well as a film can do without a tech nomination.

    That’s not to say Changeling and/or Gran Torino are incapable of doing well, but both lack the across-the-board star power of Eastwood’s more successful movies. I don’t really see either film getting more than 5 noms.

  • Alfredo

    I think many of us are underestimating Appaloosa and The Road. I’m just saying. No real reason, just a gut feeling.

  • KB

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 12
    Australia – 9
    Revolutionary Road – 8
    Doubt – 7
    Milk – 6

  • Bernardo S

    Australia – 8
    Benjamin Button – 8 (but not BP)
    Rev Road – 8
    The Dark Knight – 7 (not BP)
    Defiance – 7
    WALL-E – 7(not BP)

    Highly unlikely but that’s how my predictions look right now. And yes, 7 for WALlE is perfectly plausible: Screenplay, Song, Score, Sound Edit, Sound Mix, Animated and my personal favourite crazy idea… Visual FX

  • The Natural

    To the guy who responded to me:

    Excellent work responding to me constructively without any hint of patronization, rudeness, or any other form of downright disrespect. It was very considerate of you.

    The fact you even DID respond so rudely proves to me you’re not worth listening to. You can go on and on about how I’m “wrong” and how I know nothing because I’m not an “Oscar pundit,” and you can keep calling me childish names for your own sick, arrogant satisfaction because anyone disagreeing with you weakens your already shaky self-confidence, but you know what? It’s ALL speculation at this point! No one knows more than anyone else! How’s about that, Sherlock? And it is MY bold opinion and MY view that THE DARK KNIGHT is being MUCH overestimated and will receive hardly the immense amount of nominations you guys think it will (and should).

    Not everyone’s going to agree with you, kiddo, gotta wake up and smell the flowers. THE DARK KNIGHT isn’t happening at the Oscars this year. My opinion, and we’ll see who’s right come January.

  • the_movie_guy

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Revolutionary Road
    Miracle at St. Anna
    The Dark Knight

    Christopher Nolan (dir. The Dark Knight)
    Sam Mendes (dir. Revolutionary Road)
    Baz Lurman (dir. Australia)
    David Fincher (dir. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
    Spike Lee (dir. Miracle at St. Anna)

  • Cliff

    The Dark Knight – 8
    Revolutionary Road – 7
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 6
    The Road – 6
    Milk – 5

    All estimtes on the low end, but I can’t help seeing Ben Button and Revolutionary Road as this year’s Sweeney Todd/Charlie Wilsons War. Still, I’d have to be crazy to write them off. But I could see another diffuse, low nomination-count year like we’ve often seen recently.

  • Joaquin

    Australia – 8 (Picture, Director, Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Score)

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 12 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Score, Makeup)

    The Dark Knight – 6 (Director, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

    Revolutionary Road – 7 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Art Direction, Costume Design)

    Wall-E – 6 (Animated Film, Original Screenplay, Score, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

    Best Picture
    -The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    -Revolutionary Road

    Best Director
    -Australia (Baz Luhrmann)
    -Changeling/The Exchange (Clint Eastwood)
    -The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher)
    -The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
    -Revolutionary Road (Sam Mendes)

  • thomas bishop

    i try to pick the oscar bait every year. as strong as ben. button is, as well as rev. road, my pick is still TDK. with the fact that it is as gritty as heat, as engrossing as the french connection, and as fast paced as any other crime movie, i think the academy will see it for all this, and it will get nods in the major catagories. will it take best picture? was return of the king the strongest of the three LOTR movies? no. was peter jackson the best director that year? no. but it was so large and so overwhelming over all other movies. same with titanic. they both took the top prize. now, i’m just speaking from my own opinion, and i’m no expert, but i see it as a very strong movie, and that is what the academy looks for. the STRONGEST movie of the year. the departed and NCFOM were the strongest that year. TDK has as good a chance as any other movie this year.

  • Michael Lewis

    The Dark Knight – 12

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 11

    Australia – 10

    Wall-E – 7

    Milk – 6

  • The Natural

    You guys are too funny. DARK KNIGHT won’t make it big! Let’s face it.

  • Friedl

    I’m gonna risk my early hide and stand behind Gran Torino.
    Even more than Changeling, although I see room for both.

    I also predict Mr Eastwood’s 3rd BA nom. yes really. this early. I’m telling you. Changeling’s gonna build heat & then this movie’s gonna sneak up on us.
    (although if I already see it coming, its possibly not a sneak, but I think I’m still in the minority, possibly.)

  • Friedl

    The Natural – YOU’re funny – forget BP & BD. Think of all the tech noms TDK is up for. The tech quality of the film is excellent.

    A movie like Juno can land BP nom with only 4noms, but even if TDK misses BP (& it won’t), its pretty solid.

    – Supp Actor
    – Cinematography
    – Editing
    – Sound
    – Effects
    – Sound Editing
    – BD
    – BP
    – Another possible, if very unlikely, Supp nom in Gary Oldman
    – Adapted Screenplay
    – even Set?

    That leaves it 11 possible, at least 5 / 6 likely.

    Maybe we’re a bit naive. Maybe. Maybe not.

  • sepehr

    Best Picture-Body Of Lies

    Revolutionary Road
    The Road

    Best Director-Ron Haward-Frost/Nixon
    Ridley Scott-Body Of Lies
    Clint Eastwood-Changeling
    Sam Mendes-Revolutionary Road
    Baz Luhrmann-Australia

    Best Actor-Frank Langella-Frost/Nixon
    Viggo Mortensen-The Road
    Leonardo Dicaprio-Revolutionary Road
    Hugh Jackman-Australia
    Sean Penn-Milk

    Best Supporting Actor-Russell Crowe-Body Of Lies
    John Malkovich-Changeling
    Edd Harris-Appaloosa
    Heath Ledger-The Dark Knight
    Robert Duvall-The Road

  • Bill M

    The Five Best Picture Nominees:

    (In order of Most Nom’s)

    The Dark Knight (9) – Picture, Director, S. Actor, Cinematography, Art Dir, S. Ef Editing, S. Mixing, Visual Effects, Makeup

    Revolutionary Road (8) – Picture, Director, L. Actor, L. Actress, Ad. Screenplay, Editing, Cost. Des, Or. Score

    Changeling (8) – Picture, Director, Ad. Screenplay, L. Actress, S. Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Or. Score

    Australia (7) – Picture, Director, Cinematography, S. Mixing, Art Dir, Cost. Des, Or. Score

    Doubt (5) Picture, Ad. Screenplay, L. Actor, L. Actress, S. Actress

    The two other most nominated films:

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (7) – Director, L. Actor, S. Actress – Cate Blanchett, Editing, Visual Effects, Or. Score, Cost. Des

    Wall-E (5) – Sound Mixing, S. Effects Editing, Or. Score, Or. Song, Or. Screenplay

  • http://www.theroadrumors.com Laurie Mann

    I haven’t been overly impressed by the movies I’ve seen this year. While “The Dark Knight” has the geek vote here, it’s really not a very good movie. It’s the sort of thing that’ll get a pile of technical Oscar nominations, but may win Best Special Effects and some of the sound awards.

    I love the trailer for “Burn After Reading,” and I think that’ll get the “comedy” slot for Best Picture.

    For the serious flicks, I think “Revolutionary Road” and “Frost/Nixon.” I’m just not sure about that fifth slot. Part of me is rooting for “The Road,” but there was a fair amount of grousing about small, depressing movies winning so many Oscars this year. Still, “The Road” was written by Cormac McCarthy, and the script (we understand) sticks to the book very closely.

    For Best Actor, I think Viggo Mortensen is the most likely actor to be on the ballot, but it’s not clear which movie he’ll be nominated for. “Good” sounds like it may still have some distribution problems. “Appaloosa” looks OK, but I just don’t see it as this year’s surprise Oscar nominee (like, say like “Unforgiven”). Best Oscar nominees tend to go to people who either play a public figure well (like Langella playing Nixon), or someone who suffers a lot (like Mortensen in “The Road”). The buzz from people who’ve seen Kodi Smit-McKee, who plays the boy in “The Road,” is pretty high, but if he gets a nomination, it’ll probably be for Best Supporting Actor.

    I have to admit that my handicapping the Oscars hasn’t been very good since 2005. Last year, I was rooting for “Michael Clayton;” my favorite flick, “Thank-you for Smoking,” was not nominated for anything. (Frankly, I’d like to see Aaron Eckhart be Oscar-nominated (as supporting actor) for “The Dark Knight,” but if anyone gets an acting nomination for that movie, we know who it will be)

  • Ivan

    ensemble/ TDK, REV ROAD, W., MILK, DEFIANCE


    supp actress/ CRUZ, TOMEI, BANKS, DAVIS, TARAJI P

  • william rezende

    the dark knight-the best film of year?well,for me is impossible.but,if is nominee to oscar,wall-e too.this animation film is the best of the pixar.is so beautiful,is i´m cry.

    são josé dos campos-sp-brazil

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