by Daniel Kenealy
I have been quietly observing this years Oscar race unfold, watching from afar in a semi-detached way certain stocks rise, certain stocks falls and we are faced with the genuine possibility of a comic book movie scoring a Best Picture nomination for the first time in the history of the Academy Awards. The voters of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who hand out the Golden Globes annually, had their ballot deadline yesterday and in a week filled with announcements – the Critics Choice Awards, the Los Angeles Film Critics – it is still the Globes that hold most sway this week.
Nathanial Rogers, over at ‘The Film Experience‘, correctly (in my opinion) calls them the pre-Oscar nomination biggie that blend a semi-history of Oscar prognostication with a ‘We Don’t Care’ streak that makes them prepared to stray from the supposed path once in a while. Personally, I hope that this year they confine themselves to five or six nominations per category – last years’ 7 nominations for best drama was a little ridiculous. The reality that you can’t please all the people, all of the time, seemed temporarily lost on the members of the HFPA.
This years Globe nominations promise to be highly interesting for several reasons. It will be intriguing to see if they rubber-stamp the five apparent frontrunners for Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. A consensus seems to be forming, albeit a weak and premature one, around ‘Benjamin Button’, ‘Milk’, ‘Slumdog’, ‘Frost/Nixon’, and ‘The Dark Knight’. But the Globes are likely to throw in a more daring choice in the top category of best drama motion picture – will it be ‘Rachel Getting Married’? ‘The Wrestler’? ‘The Reader’?
It will also be interesting to see how they cope with a musical or comedy eligibility list that, for the first time in many years, does not include a cluster of ‘light-dramas’. In previous years the Globes would be ready to announce a musical or comedy shortlist that included ‘Iron Man’, ‘Rachel Getting Married’, and ‘W.’ but all three have been categorized as dramatic. Without further adieu here are my predictions for Thursday’s Golden Globe nominations …
In the top drama category the five movies mentioned above could well comprise a very predictable shortlist. However, my feeling is that one of them will slip up. My bet is on ‘Frost/Nixon’ because I feel that possesses the lowest ‘wow’ factor. The commercial success of ‘The Dark Knight’, the critical acclaim for ‘Milk’ and ‘Slumdog’ and ‘Button”s status as the big movie of the season make them highly likely nominations. For the fifth slot I am predicting a nomination for ‘The Wrestler’ although ‘Rachel Getting Married’, ‘The Reader’, ‘Revolutionary Road’ and ‘Doubt’ are all serious contenders. In the musical or comedy category most prognosticators have a list populated by the classy Woody Allen comedy ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’; the smash hit ‘Mamma Mia!’; Mike Leigh’s ‘Happy Go-Lucky’; and a movie that I simply did not get, ‘Tropic Thunder’. The Coen brothers’ ‘Burn After Reading’ may be a little quirky for the HFPA’s tastes and, if it is, the voters have plenty of more mainstream options including ‘Sex and the City: The Movie’ (they always were fond of the TV show); ‘Last Chance Harvey’ that features two brilliant performances from respected stars, Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson; if they skew younger they might opt for ‘High School Musical 3: Senior Year’ or ‘Forgetting Sarah Marshall’. But my prediction is ‘Cadillac Records’ which has opened to solid reviews and is the sort of big musical offering that the HFPA often embrace.
The drama acting categories are chock full of contenders and it is to be regretted that some genuinely deserving performances will be snubbed, assuming the HFPA do not stack seven nominees in each category! For best actor it seems that two towering performances, from Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, are stone cold locks. There are then seven legitimate challengers for just three (possibly four) slots. Despite my prediction that ‘Frost/Nixon’ may miss a best picture nomination I fully expect Frank Langella to score a nomination for his portrayal of Richard Nixon although it seems unlikely that his co-star Michael Sheen – who actually delivers the better performance as David Frost – will join him. Despite the brilliance and subtleties of Richard Jenkins’ performance in ‘The Visitor’ he may be crowded out by bigger names in flashier performances, for example Brad Pitt, Clint Eastwood, and Leonardo DiCaprio (although he arguably lacks the flash in ‘Revolutionary Road’). It is strange that Pitt seems to be gathering momentum not as a possible Oscar nominee but as a likely Oscar snub, especially given that the movie he headlines is on almost everybody’s best picture shortlist. The Globes may well give him a break as such a big name star. Who they choose to snub out of Eastwood and DiCaprio is anybody’s guess and of course they may opt to include both of them. My bet is that DiCaprio may be left out given the subtle nature of his performance. More outlandish possibilities include Josh Brolin whose turn as George W. Bush was another in a long line of fine performances. And Robert Downey, Jr. – who has had a tremendous year – has also been lumped into the drama category for ‘Iron Man’ although a nomination seems a tremendous long shot.
In the actress category we can expect to see Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet for ‘Revolutionary Road’ and Anne Hathaway. The uneven reception afforded to ‘Australia’ suggests that Nicole Kidman will not find her way back into contention this year. Likewise, I feel that Melissa Leo’s performance in ‘Frozen River’ – despite its absolute brilliance (I’ve been a huge fan of Leo since her turn as Kay Howard on ‘Homicide: Life on the Street’) – will be snubbed. The film is simply too small and too bleak. Angelina Jolie, despite losing ground in the Oscar race, is almost certain for a nomination here in my opinion. She has made a strong comeback this year and truly delivers in ‘Changeling’, carrying a serious drama on her shoulders. The Globes are sure to love the comeback story and Jolie’s tremendous star power. The final place is between Cate Blanchett’s borderline lead/supporting role in ‘Benjamin Button’ and Kristin Scott Thomas’ sensational French-language performance in ‘I’ve Loved You So Long’. This is another category where the HFPA could easily stretch to six but my chips are stacked behind Scott Thomas on both merit and the Globes’ track record of favoring international stars in roles possessing an international flavor.
In the corresponding musical or comedy categories thinks are equally murkier thanks to the aforementioned lack of ‘light dramas’ in contention. I expect the actor category to feature Dustin Hoffman (the likely winner and a serious Oscar contender for ‘Last Chance Harvey’); Ricky Gervais who is tremendously popular with almost all awards’ voters for ‘Ghost Town’; and George Clooney for his quirky and hilarious turn in ‘Burn After Reading’. Star names such as Ben Stiller (‘Tropic Thunder’), Pierce Brosnan (‘Mamma Mia!’), and Colin Farrell (‘In Bruges’) are all in the mix but I don’t seem the making the cut. More likely are Adrian Brody for the musical ‘Cadillac Records’ and Javier Bardem for ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’ although, by my reckoning, both are vulnerable. The hilariously awkward Michael Cera is surely knocking on the doors of a major film award nomination and he has ‘Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist’ in contention, whilst Jason Segal could sneak in for ‘Forgetting Sarah Marshall’. In the actress category we can expect Meryl Streep to collect a second nomination for ‘Mamma Mia!’ and we should expect Brits’ Sally Hawkins and Emma Thompson to feature for ‘Happy Go-Lucky’ and ‘Last Chance Harvey’. I have included two TV stars for the final two positions; Tina Fey in ‘Baby Mama’ and Sarah Jessica Parker in ‘Sex and the City’. But Kristen Bell, Kat Dennings and Katharine Heigl are all knocking on the door with ‘Forgetting Sarah Marshall’, ‘Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist’, and ’27 Dresses’ respectively.
The supporting actor categories seem likely to feature two leading performances masquerading in the supporting categories; Philip Seymour Hoffman in ‘Doubt’ and Kate Winslet in ‘The Reader’. In the supporting actor category, Heath Ledger and Josh Brolin are almost certain to join Hoffman whilst Robert Downey, Jr. will probably get his reward here for ‘Tropic Thunder’. My final prediction is Dev Patel’s for ‘Slumdog’ although if ‘Milk’ is a particularly strong player then a double nomination is possible, with James Franco joining co-star Brolin. Michael Shannon and Ralph Fiennes are also contenders. In the supporting actress category I expect Winslet to be joined by Penelope Cruz, Rosemarie DeWitt and Viola Davis for a tremendous five minute scene in ‘Doubt’. Davis could be joined by her co-star Amy Adams who has a larger role but less impact. Similarly, if the Globes are feeling particularly ‘starry’ this year then Beyonce Knowles could rack up another nomination for ‘Cadillac Records’. But my bet is on a double nomination for ‘Rachel Getting Married’, with Debra Winger joining DeWitt. If the category stretches to six – the supporting categories often do – then Marisa Tomei could find herself shortlisted for ‘The Wrestler’ or Taraji P. Henson could find herself nominated for ‘Benjamin Button’.
As far as the directors are concerned I fully expect to see David Fincher, Gus Van Sant, and Christopher Nolan shortlisted for ‘Benjamin Button, ‘Milk’, and ‘The Dark Knight’ respectively. Danny Boyle is more of a question mark for me, I feel as though he will be shortlisted but something is telling me he is more vulnerable than the aforementioned three. Contenders to round out the list are plenty. Baz Luhrmann realized a beautiful epic in ‘Australia’ although the movie left much to be desired. John Patrick Shanley, Stephen Daldry, Sam Mendes, and Jonathan Demme all offered intimate character dramas and could find themselves rewarded (Daldry and Mendes are probably the most likely). Or, if the Academy is feeling sentimental and star-struck then Clint Eastwood could be rewarded for his double-whammy this year with a nomination in the form of ‘Gran Torino’. And none of that is to discount Darren Aronofsky’s direction of ‘The Wrestler’, which if the film goes over well, should find reward.
Finally, the screenplay category is as ever tough to predict given the combination of original and adapted offerings. I feel that ‘Milk’, ‘Rachel Getting Married’, ‘Slumdog’, and ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’ are strong bets. For the fifth prediction I suggest the classy adaptation of ‘Revolutionary Road’ although this category is really a toss-up. ‘The Reader’, ‘Happy Go-Lucky’, ‘Doubt’, ‘Benjamin Button’, ‘Frost/Nixon’ are all possibilities.
So, here are my predictions listed fully with a 6th place alternate offering just in case they ‘expand’:
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’
‘The Dark Knight’
‘Milk’
‘Slumdog Millionaire’
‘The Wrestler’
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‘Frost/Nixon’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Clint Eastwood in ‘Gran Torino’
Frank Langella in ‘Frost/Nixon’
Sean Penn in ‘Milk’
Brad Pitt in ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’
Mickey Rourke in ‘The Wrestler’
____________________
Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘Revolutionary Road’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Anne Hathaway in ‘Rachel Getting Married’
Angelina Jolie in ‘Changeling’
Kristin Scott Thomas in ‘I’ve Loved You So Long’
Meryl Streep in ‘Doubt’
Kate Winslet in ‘Revolutionary Road’
____________________
Cate Blanchett in ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL or COMEDY
‘Cadillac Records’
‘Happy Go-Lucky’
‘Mamma Mia!’
‘Tropic Thunder’
‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
____________________
‘Burn After Reading’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL or COMEDY
Javier Bardem in ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
Adrien Brody in ‘Cadillac Records’
George Clooney in ‘Burn After Reading’
Ricky Gervais in ‘Ghost Town’
Dustin Hoffman in ‘Last Chance Harvey’
____________________
Michael Cera in ‘Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL or COMEDY
Tina Fey in ‘Baby Mama’
Sally Hawkins in ‘Happy Go-Lucky’
Sarah Jessica Parker in ‘Sex and the City: The Movie’
Meryl Streep in ‘Mamma Mia!’
Emma Thompson in ‘Last Chance Harvey’
____________________
Kat Dennings in ‘Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A SUPPORTING ROLE – MOTION PICTURE
Josh Brolin in ‘Milk’
Robert Downey, Jr. in ‘Tropic Thunder’
Philip Seymour Hoffman in ‘Doubt’
Heath Ledger in ‘The Dark Knight’
Dev Patel in ‘Slumdog Millionaire’
____________________
James Franco in ‘Milk’
BEST PERFORMANCE BY A SUPPORTING ACTRESS – MOTION PICTURE
Penelope Cruz in ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
Viola Davis in ‘Doubt’
Rosemarie DeWitt in ‘Rachel Getting Married’
Debra Winger in ‘Rachel Getting Married’
Kate Winslet in ‘The Reader’
____________________
Marisa Tomei in ‘The Wrestler’
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, directed by David Fincher
‘The Dark Knight’, directed by Christopher Nolan
‘Milk’, directed by Gus Van Sant
‘Slumdog Millionaire’, directed by Danny Boyle
‘The Wrestler’, directed by Darren Aronofsky
____________________
‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’, directed by Woody Allen
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
‘Milk’
‘Rachel Getting Married’
‘Revolutionary Road’
‘Slumdog Millionaire’
‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’
____________________
‘Frost/Nixon’
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE MOTION PICTURE
‘The Class’ (France)
‘Gomorrah’ (Italy)
‘Let the Right One In’ (Sweden)
‘The Mermaid’ (Russia)
‘Waltz With Bashir’ (Israel)
____________________
‘I’ve Loved You So Long’ (France)
BEST ANIMATED MOTION PICTURE
‘Bolt’
‘Kung Fu Panda’
‘Wall-E’
____________________
‘The Tale of Despereaux’
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
‘A Night to Remember’ from High School Musical 3: Senior Year’
‘Another Way to Die’ from Quantum of Solace
‘All Dressed in Love’ from Sex and the City: The Movie
‘Down to Earth’ from Wall-E
‘The Wrestler’ from The Wrestler
____________________
‘Once in a Lifetime’ from Cadillac Records
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
‘Australia’, music by David Hirschfelder
‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, music by Alexandre Desplat
‘Milk’, music by Danny Elfman
‘Revolutionary Road’, music by Thomas Newman
‘Wall-E’, music by Thomas Newman
____________________
‘Changeling’, music by Clint Eastwood
NOMINATION TALLY
Milk – 6
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 4
Rachel Getting Married – 4
Slumdog Millionaire – 4
Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 4
The Wrestler – 4
The Dark Knight – 3
Doubt – 3
Revolutionary Road – 3
Wall-E – 3
Cadillac Records – 2
Happy Go-Lucky – 2
Last Chance Harvey – 2
Mamma Mia – 2
Sex and the City: The Movie – 2
Tropic Thunder – 2
As far as the Best Picture lineup at the Critics Choice goes they have shortlisted ten films and the five Oscar nominees will probably be drawn from this long-list. The nominations further cement the status of ‘Milk’, ‘Benjamin Button’ and ‘Slumdog’ as the frontrunners for Oscar nominations in the top category. Tier 2 candidates – those likely but not locked – are ‘The Dark Knight, ‘Frost/Nixon’, ‘The Reader’, and ‘Doubt’. Those sitting in tier 3 include ‘Changeling’ (a long-shot for a Best Picture nomination and slightly surprising by its inclusion), ‘The Wrestler’ (will have a solid core of fans I’m sure), and ‘Wall-E’ (a deserving movie that will struggle to overcome the anti-animation bias). Based on these nominations I see no reason to alter my current Oscar Best Picture predictions: ‘Milk’, ‘Benjamin Button’, ‘Slumdog’, ‘Frost/Nixon’, and ‘The Dark Knight’. Incidentally, these five movies are those shortlisted by the BFCA for best director.
Some are beginning to waver over the prospects of ‘Frost/Nixon’ but I am encouraged by its presence in the picture, director, and screenplay lineups at the BFCA. Ron Howard is the master of delivering solid, inoffensive movies that feature solid acting, strong production values and capture either a compelling story or a historical moment (in this case, both). The over 50’s crowd will surely adore this re-telling of a seminal moment in American history and the performances by Langella and Sheen are so compelling as to provide a sort of ‘reverse coattail’ effect for the movie.
The Critics Choice shortlist for best actor threw up no surprises, with the possible exception of Brad Pitt’s inclusion over Leonardo DiCaprio. The question becomes which of the six shortlisted contenders will be dropped from the Oscar roster. My bet is that Brad will miss out through some combination of resentment for his smoldering looks, a feeling that he is not a serious actor (shocking when one considers his filmography), and that he is acting underneath visual effects and makeup. The remaining five nominees – Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke, Frank Langella, Clint Eastwood, and Richard Jenkins – constitute my current Oscar predictions. Of them, Jenkins is probably on the loosest footing on account of his lesser name status, the early release of ‘The Visitor’, and the relative subtleness of his performance. Superstars Pitt and DiCaprio are waiting to pounce!
In the best actress category the already referenced surprise is the omission of Kate Winslet. This throws up an interesting scenario as far the Oscars are concerned. If ‘Revolutionary Road’ fails to ignite then voters may start to consider ‘The Reader’ as the heavyweight Winslet role this season and might question whether she should be placed in the lead actress category. But my bet is that Kate scores a double nomination at the Globes on Thursday and that’ll put her back on track for a ‘Revolutionary Road’ nomination come Oscar morning. The BFCA nominations for Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Angelina Jolie are likely to be repeated at both the Globes and the Oscars. My fifth Oscar prediction – Kristin Scott Thomas – is conspicuous by her absence from the Critics Choice lineup. However, ‘I’ve Loved You So Long’ is a small, independent offering and if it was going to be absent anywhere, it was likely to be here. I still think that Kristin will score at the Globes and go on to collect an Oscar nomination for a beautiful performance. The inclusion of Melissa Leo, Cate Blanchett, and Kate Beckinsale certainly makes the best actress category a tad more competitive. Of this trio it is fair to say that Blanchett represents the biggest threat to the Oscar shortlist (she would likely replace Scott Thomas or possibly Winslet if ‘RR’ stays dormant). Leo, whilst delivering a terrific performance, is starring in a small and bleak film that may not be able to keep pace with the big guns. Beckinsale represents the longest shot of the three for a movie that has nearly zero buzz.
The best supporting actor lineup could quite easily be replicated come Oscar morning although I still cannot understand what people are seeing in Downey, Jr.’s performance in ‘Tropic Thunder’. Certainly Heath Ledger, Josh Brolin, and Philip Seymour Hoffman are looking safe. James Franco could make it a ‘Milk’ double at the Oscars if the movie goes over ‘huge’ – and it may well do just that. Still, my hunch is that Franco will be kept out and that Downey, Jr., despite the love for his performance is just too silly for the Academy. I am sticking with Michael Shannon (‘Revolutionary Road’) and Dev Patel (‘Slumdog Millionaire’) for Oscar nominations. In the best supporting actress category a semi-shakeup has happened that has been coming for a long time. Of the six contenders shortlisted Vera Farmigia looks the weakest (I don’t quite understand where ‘Nothing But the Truth’ came from at the BFCA). Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei, and Kate Winslet are all very strong bets. But I still feel the Academy will find space for Rosemarie DeWitt’s turn as the title character in ‘Rachel Getting Married’. Perhaps if Winslet moves up to lead with the death of ‘Revolutionary Road’ then a slot opens up. Even if that does not happen Henson, Tomei or Winslet could all potentially be bumped off the Oscar shortlist.
It’s all starting to simmer nicely.