The Hollywood Stock Exchange features stocks in how the Oscar may turn out. The general consensus right now is probably:
Picture: Slumdog
Director: Boyle
Actor: Penn (Rourke as potential upset)
Actress: Kate Winslet (Streep as potential upset)
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (Downey, Jr. as potential upset, right?)
Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz (Viola Davis as potential upset)
The Hollywood Stock Exchange has Mickey Rourke way out in front of Penn. And actually has Supporting Actress as a showdown between Cruz and Marisa Tomei. Heath Ledger is way, way, WAY out front. Original Screenplay seems to favor Milk, and adapted to Slumdog, of course.