All These Wonderful Things AJ Schnack feels, in talking to those pesky doc voters, that Man on Wire will, in fact, be the doc to beat:
Over the past week, I’ve talked to more than a dozen folks who either have or will be voting in the Doc Feature race (you must see all five films to be able to vote) as well as folks who talk to a bunch of Oscar voters and not one, not a single one, felt that MAN ON WIRE was rife for an upset.
Now, sure, other films had their partisans. And, like me, people could imagine scenarios wherein another film would win, but they were nearly evenly split as to which film was on deck, a sign that folks have not coalesced around another title.