Can Melissa Leo Save the Oscars?
The Guardian pokes some fun at the predictable season by begging voters to go for Melissa Leo and some other less known nominees:
The Globes are over and the Baftas been and gone. We have, almost imperceptibly, swung into the final stretch of this year’s awards season – rattling towards the crowning Academy Awards a week on Sunday. The trophies have been polished; the seating plans finalised. Only Melissa Leo can save us now.
And speaking of Leo, she talks to Little Gold Men and pronounces a shocking revelation: she isn’t a movie watcher and has never seen Thelma and Louise. [Meet the Nominees]
Dominik says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 7:55am
I predict Melissa Leo is the one that can grab the Oscar out of Kate Winslet´s hands, not Meryl Streep.
The argument that probably not enough members have seen Frozen River is inaccurate, cause the movie was the first to be sent to all members, early back in September.
A surprise win is possible, although I still think Winslet might get it.
A.J says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 8:00am
Predictable season? There is only one true lock for an Acting award, I don’t call that predictable. This isn’t 2006.
Matt Mazur says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 8:20am
I think Frozen River is a brilliant achievement and the great thing that will come out of it is that we get to see what Courtney Hunt and Melissa Leo will be able to do next…
Her Bette Davis-Joan Crawford project, as well as her Audrey Munson film, could be very interesting. I hope her nomination gives her the autonomy to do more excellent work!
And I hope against all hope that she wins the Oscar!
Faux says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 8:46am
NEXT STOP: ‘INDIE’ SPIRIT AWARDS (February 21st)
Probably you think Indie Spirit Awards are consolation prize for independent small films. May be. Some of this independent films have won so far great recognition and many awards at Oscars et al (see Platoon, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Sideways, Fargo, Pulp Fiction, Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Lost in Translation etc). But this time we can analyze the acting categories to see this year is very strong.
Spirit Awards has no (big) tradition in predict Oscar winners from their beginning in 1986. This year, only 6 of 20 Oscar nominees have a chance to win this award. No one in supporting actor; only Penélope Cruz as nominee in supporting actress; Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo for leading actress AND –the most interesting bunch- Richard Jenkins, Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke (yet another round) in leading actor. We should go back to 2006 to see a very strong group of nominees for leading actor, when Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) won over Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain), David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck) and Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow).
Here are some facts about Spirit Awards matching Oscars:
AMPAS ‘and’ SPIRIT WINNERS
Leading Actor (1)
2006: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Leading Actress (4)
1986: Geraldine Page (The Trip to Bountiful)
1997: Frances McDormand (Fargo)
2000: Hilary Swank (Boys Don’t Cry)
2004: Charlize Theron (Monster)
Supporting Actor (1)
2007: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Supporting Actress (1)
1995: Dianne Wiest (Bullets over Broadway)
AMPAS WINNERS but ‘only’ SPIRIT NOMINEES
Leading Actor (1)
1996: Nicolas Cage (Leaving Las Vegas) lost Spirit Award to Sean Penn (Dead Man Walking)
Leading Actress (0)
-
Supporting Actor (1)
1999: James Coburn (Affliction) lost Spirit Award to Bill Murray (Rushmore), not nominated for Oscar
Supporting Actress (1)
2001: Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock) lost Spirit Award to Ziyi Zhang (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon), not nominated for Oscar
SPIRIT WINNERS but ‘only’ AMPAS NOMINEES
Leading Actor (12, or 10 if you consider Jackson and Macy)
1987: James Woods (Salvador)
1989: Edward James Olmos (Stand and Deliver)
1995: Samuel L. Jackson (Pulp Fiction) nominated for Supp. Actor at Oscar
1996: Sean Penn (Dead Man Walking)
1997: William H. Macy (Fargo) nominated for Supporting at Oscar
1998: Robert Duvall (The Apostle)
1999: Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters)
2000: Richard Farnsworth (The Straight Story)
2001: Javier Bardem (Before Night Falls)
2002: Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom)
2004: Bill Murray (Lost in Translation)
2007: Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Leading Actress (10)
1988: Sally Kirkland (Anna)
1991: Anjelica Huston (The Grifters)
1996: Elisabeth Shue (Leaving Las Vegas)
1998: Julie Christie (Afterglow)
2001: Ellen Burstyn (Requiem for a Dream)
2002: Sissy Spacek (In the Bedroom)
2003: Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven)
2005: Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)
2006: Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
2008: Ellen Page (Juno)
Supporting Actor (7, or 9 if you consider also Jackson and Macy)
1988: Morgan Freeman (Street Smart)
1991: Bruce Davison (Longtime Companion)
1995: Chazz Palminteri (Bullets over Broadway)
2001: Willem Dafoe (Shadow of the Vampire)
2004: Djimon Hounsou (In America)
2005: Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)
2006: Matt Dillon (Crash)
Supporting Actress (7)
1992: Dianne Ladd (Rambling Rose)
1999: Lynn Redgrave (Gods and Monsters)
2000: Chloë Sevigny (Boys Don’t Cry)
2004: Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog)
2005: Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
2006: Amy Adams (Junebug)
2008: Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
AMPAS and SPIRIT ‘only’ NOMINEES
Leading Actor (7, or 6 if you discount Dafoe)
1987: Willem Dafoe (Platoon), nominated in Supporting at Oscar
1988: Peter Fonda (Ulee’s Gold)
1999: Nick Nolte (Affliction)
2004: Ben Kingsley (House of Sand and Fog)
2006: Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
2006: David Strathairn (Good Night, and Good Luck)
2006: Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Leading Actress (5)
1991: Joanne Woodard (Mr & Mrs. Bridge)
2000: Janet McTeer (Tumbleweeds)
2001: Joan Allen (The Contender)
2001: Laura Linney (You Can Count on Me)
2004: Samantha Morton (In America)
Supporting Actor (0, or 1 if you count Dafoe because in 1986 and 1987 did not exist Supporting categories at ‘Indies’)
-
Supporting Actress (3)
1988: Ann Sothern (The Whales of August), lost Spirit Award to Anjelica Huston (The Dead), not nominated for Oscar
2004: Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April)
2006: Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)
FINALLY: If we consider from 1986 to 2008, we have only 2 Leading Actor Oscar winners, 4 Leading Actress Oscar winners, 2 Supporting Actor Oscar winners and also 2 Supporting Actress Oscar winners. BUT (here is the curiosity): these 10 Oscar winners won in 10 different years (‘86, ‘95, ‘96, ‘97, ‘99, ‘00, ‘01, ‘04, ‘06 & ’07). By the way Spirit Awards have never awarded more than one future Oscar winner in the same year (Or, we have to say, Spirit never matches with Oscar more than once in a year). Do you think this year will be different? Do you think Jenkins/Penn/Rourke and/or Hathaway/Leo and/or Cruz can repeat, two or three of them, at Oscars?
BurmaShave says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 8:47am
My vote is for Best Actor and Best Actress to go to Richard Jenkins and Melissa Leo, and then immediately have then go on a national tour of FRANKIE AND JOHNNY IN THE CLAIRE DE LUNE.
Student of World says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 9:26am
In my humble opinion, if anyone is going to upset it’s Hathaway. She fits the mold of the last couple Best Actress winners. I hope she doesn’t because it might hurt her career.
Alex says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 11:03am
I just watched Frozen River last night and have to say that Melissa Leo was pitch perfect. Not a false note in the entire performance. I really think she deserves the Oscar.
Thanks to Sasha for, yet again, pointing out a smaller film to me that I might have overlooked!
Alex says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 11:09am
Too late to edit my reponse, but I really think that Misty Upham deserved a best supporting nod. Such a natural performance.
daveylow says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 12:06pm
I am a Leo fan but I don’t want her to win the Oscar. Nor do I think she can.
Dan K says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 1:07pm
God I would scream up and down in joy if Leo won it. It would truly be one of the smartest, more redeeming moves of the Academy in the past few years. Leo’s nuanced, subtle performance speaks volumes over Kate and Meryl’s Oscar mugging (which isn’t to say their performances aren’t stellar).
All of this best actress debating really made me think, what do us viewers want in a Best Actress? Somebody in a past post mentioned the difference in Technique vs. Heart. I was really taken with this differentiation. Of course not all actresses fall into such black and white categories, but there is certainly a difference between actresses who go into a role with their gut, and an actress who meticulously studies and prepares for her role.
To illustrate my example, here are leading actress nominees and winners of past Oscar years.
Technique
Meryl Streep
Annette Bening
Cate Blanchett
Glenn Close
Miranda Richardson
Helen Mirren
Judi Dench
Imelda Staunton
Heart
Hilary Swank
Michelle Pfeiffer
Jodie Foster
Naomi Watts
Diane Lane
Helen Hunt
Kathy Bates
Sally Field
Tim H says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 1:49pm
I saw FROZEN RIVER last night and thought it was excellent. Leo deserves her nomination as does Hunt. And I agree wit Alex, above, re: Misty Upham’s wonderful, natural performance.
Can Leo actually pull of a surprise win, though? I just don’t think so. I’m sticking with Winslet, but we’ve all got to admit that this has been an exceptional year for the Best Actress sweeps. I don’t think I’ll throw anything at my tv if any of the five names are announced.
And this year, in addition to the five nominees, there was also:
Sally Hawkins
Kristin Scott Thomas
Michelle Williams
and the best thing about TCCOBB: Cate Blanchett
Pauley says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 2:03pm
It would be a sad day indeed for the Academy If Winslet doesn’t get the Oscar this year.
Afrika says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 2:13pm
Sorry this is out of topic, but Speaking of best actresses I just watched Transamerica today and all I have to say is why didn’t Felicity Huffman win best actress at the Oscars? good lord! what a powerful performance.
ok, back to LEO…
Faux says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 2:20pm
“Sorry this is out of topic, but Speaking of best actresses I just watched Transamerica today and all I have to say is why didn’t Felicity Huffman win best actress at the Oscars? good lord! what a powerful performance.”
Because she is not “a beautiful” woman and Reese Witherspoon is it?
Just kidding. I’m with you in this. Huffman was absolutely TERRIFIC.
Nicolas Mancuso says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 2:56pm
As huge a fan as I am of Kate Winslet, I am rooting for Melissa Leo. I don’t think it’ll happen, though.
JR says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 3:01pm
It would be a great surprise if Melissa Leo wins. I feel one of the indie performances should win Best Actress. Hathaway would be a great surprise too. INDIE FILMS ALL THE WAY!
Afrika says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 3:07pm
Faux
haha! that was a good one. I literally fell off my seat. I was actually thinking of going off on a “beauty” rant about Reese and Felicity when I wrote that but I reconsidered (thank god).
JR
Who in their right mind will want Hathaway to win over Winslet? I just don’t get it. I’m all for respecting personal opinions (I’m sounding like a hypocrite, yes I know!) but this particular opinion never ceases to startle me. I’m scratching my head right now. Anne Hathaway over Kate Winslet? wow just wow.
Zach says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 4:43pm
Oh, please, she has no chance. They’re not gonna do it.
Stephanie says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 5:45pm
I have already voted , made up my mind after the BAFTAS.
Let us analyze the 5 :
Best Actress
Kate Winslet, The Reader
The time is now , but it is a good , not great role.
She’s a dedicated , hard working actress who is due , that is why she may win ., not because she was the best .
Meryl Streep, Doubt
My least favourite of the 5 .
Not the best of the 5 , by any stretch of the imagination.
Meryl is a legend , but this was not one of her best performances , and she has already won Oscars for better roles .
Meryl should be used to clapping for the winner , and it will be the same this year .
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Dark Horse.
If the entire academy watches FROZEN RIVER , she will win easily.
And she has a LOT of friends in the acting branch who will vote for her , a Meryl – Kate split could see her sneak through .
She and Anne are the 2 best performances , by a mile.
My heart votes for her , but very unlikely for her to win.
No Globe , no Bafta usually means No Oscar either .
It’s a pity the best of the 5 will go home empty handed.
Well , life’s not fair sometimes.
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
The youngest , very good performance , easily her best role to date.
She would be a worthy winner , but her movie was not received very well.
She was the early front-runner , but somehow has lost momentum .
She should be the winner , but i’ll say there are too many factors going around to prevent that.
Unfortunately , she will lose.
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Solid performance.
But , she has already won an Oscar , and there is no other major nomination for her film .
So , she has almost no chance of winning an Oscar this year.
All things considered , I voted for Anne Hathaway in my ballot .
She won’t win , in all likelihood , but sometimes , you vote with your heart .
Winner : Kate Winslet .
Most of my British Friends are voting for one of their own , and she has a lot of across – the – board support , which should be enough .
The support is soft though , so there is a slim chance for Leo.
JR says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 6:36pm
Hathaway’s performance was superd and deeply layered. She gave the best out of the five imo, but I’m fully except the fact that she will lose. Unfortunately.
If we are talking about Melissa Leo’s possibilities of grabbing the Oscar here, than my opinion about Hathaway shouldn’t shock you that much Afrika. Just be relieved I didn’t say Angelina Jolie was more deserving than Winslet.
Say NO To Ben Button! says:
Thursday, February 12, 2009 at 6:38pm
Stephanie you know, the only other Academy member that I’ve read on these boards also voted for Hathaway…interesting.
Curious, why did you vote for Hathaway if you say that Leo was better?
Brainsworth says:
Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:42am
Just how do u get to be an Academy member?
I shudder to think a member could be so shallow & amateurish in one’s analysis !
Leo’s performance is no way more powerful than Winslet – her court scene alone is worth the Oscar!
It’s given that a single-mother-who-struggles-for-her-kids roles have always been heart-warming.
But don’t confuse that with greatness!