Daniel’s Final Predictions
I have just reminded myself of the British Academy Film Award winners and, if you exclude the foreign, documentary and short categories, then the smart money might be one a virtually perfect match with the Academy. The only BAFTA winner that jars is ‘In Bruges’ which has scant chance of collecting the Oscar for best original screenplay on Sunday night. Otherwise everything looks on the money including the technical categories. Surely, something’s got to give right?
Attention has turned, in the closing days, to just how many Oscars ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ will win. Barring an unforeseen tie in the original song category the movie is eligible for nine wins, can it sweep all 9? It’s certainly possible but I remain sceptical. I doubt any sane prognosticator would take issue with me saying the movie is an incredibly safe bet in the following categories: Picture, director, adapted screenplay, film editing and original score. I will refrain from wasting any further space commenting of these categories because I feel they are genuinely settled.
As for the other four categories in which the film is short-listed it ranges from a probable winner (cinematography, original song) to an improbable and indeed atypical one (sound editing). The movie has unquestionably become the sensation of the season and, unlike ‘No Country for Old Men’, it has genuine passion behind it. People simply love this movie. For some that seems to be enough to make them pencil it in for 9 Oscars. Nathanial Rogers, over at The Film Experience is predicting the complete sweep for the film. Both he and Guy Lodge (writing for In Contention) correctly identify the key bellwether categories as sound editing and sound mixing. These are not categories where you would expect a film like ‘Slumdog’ to prevail. Those pointing to its victory at the Cinema Audio Society awards recently would do well, however, to recall that ‘No Country for Old Men’ won the same award a year ago and promptly lost both sound Oscars to the more typical ‘Bourne Ultimatum’. My feeling is that this year will be similar and that ‘Slumdog’ – despite is fervent support – will fail to win either sound category. I would add two caveats however. First, ‘Slumdog’ has more momentum (a non-scientific assertion but, I think, a fair one) than ‘No Country for Old Men’ ever did. Actually, make that more passionate support. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the sound in ‘Slumdog’ is actually very ‘present’ by which I mean noticeable. The music punctuates this film along with the editing and I vividly remember sitting in the theatre thinking how impressive the sound mixing was.
As for original song the argument contra ‘Slumdog’ seems to be its potential to split its own support. But I don’t buy this because the song ‘Jaiho’ is, in my opinion, infinitely more memorable and catchy. In recent years the original song category has shifted to the firm left of field and I imagine the streak will continue this year.
Best sound editing and best sound mixing
These two categories are ‘head-scratchers’ for the reasons alluded to above. An interesting bit of trivia discovered by Guy Lodge tells us the following, and I quote him from In Contention:
In the 27 years that Best Sound Editing has been a competitive category (they previously had an on-off Sound Effects award), they have never split the two awards between two films nominated in both races — which is the case for all three films [meaning ‘Wall-E’, ‘The Dark Knight’ and ‘Slumdog’]. I’m fairly sure that whichever film wins one is also taking the other home.
This year four films are represented in both sound categories. Each category thus has an odd one out: ‘Iron Man’ for sound editing and ‘Benjamin Button’ for sound mixing. Neither are contenders. The remaining four films are ‘Wanted’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘Wall-E’ and ‘Slumdog’. I am going to go against the trend of history and predict, for the first time, that the sound awards will be split between two movies that are nominated in both categories. ‘The Dark Knight’’s explosions, car chases, aerial rescue sequences and so forth seem a likely bet for sound mixing and could well end up winning both categories. But I think that ‘Wall-E’’s sound editing was so noticeable, this was an incredibly aural movie, will carry it to victory. That is, of course, unless ‘Slumdog’ does a clean sweep.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button?
Despite the seemingly slight support for ‘Benjamin Button’ I sincerely doubt it will go home empty handed. Thirteen nominations is an impressive tally and as I stated in my previous article sumptuous epics that miss out to smaller movies with heart can often become default winners in the tech categories. So how many will it take? My guess is four. First, makeup seems a slam-dunk to me. I appreciate that The Joker is an iconic character and that a significant part of the iconography is the makeup, especially the scars. But the makeup was almost a character in ‘Benjamin Button’; it permeated the fabric of the movie and the legendary Greg Cannom remains my prediction. I also expect a victory for the movie in the art direction category where its set-piece constructions – the old folks home, the empty hotel – should wow the voters. Of its rivals ‘The Duchess’ and ‘Changeling’ seem the most likely challengers. The former might get more attention for its costumes however and the latter’s chicken ranch might not be quite enough to challenge Donald Graham Burt’s designs that span several eras. ‘Revolutionary Road’ is beautiful in its own right but less obvious/more subtle and ‘The Dark Knight’ will probably suffer from feeling too contemporary and dark (which is a shame). Finally, I look to ‘Benjamin Button’ to win visual effects although I think ‘Iron Man’ is a stronger contender here than some people anticipate. ‘Button’’s visuals were stunning and took my breath away but ‘Iron Man’ is more bombastic, fun and ultimately less subtle. It’s a tight race and ‘The Dark Knight’ cannot be discounted either.
‘Slumdog’’s win at the American Society of Cinematographer’s was telling but the fact does remain that it jars with the traditional winners in a category where what you photograph counts almost as much as how you photograph it. ‘Slumdog’ was visually arresting and Anthony Dod Mantle captured the Mumbai slums with brilliant colours and compositions; but consider recent winners in this category – ‘There Will Be Blood, ‘Pan’s Labyrinth’, ‘Memoirs of a Geisha’, ‘The Aviator’, ‘Master and Commander’, ‘Road to Perdition’, ‘The Fellowship of the Ring’, ‘Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’. All have photographed beautiful sets or costumes. Most have been period or fantasy films. Of the other nominees this year ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ seems the closest fit with its sumptuous production and costume designs and its digital photography. Of the other nominees it is probably safe (though perhaps unfortunate) to say that Tom Stern has his reward in the nomination afforded him for ‘Changeling’. I feel that Wally Pfister’s work on ‘The Dark Knight’ was outstanding but the abundance of night-time and interior based work might scupper his prospects here. Finally, despite their status as legends I doubt the ability of Chris Menges and Roger Deakins to win this prize for ‘The Reader’. The photography is very artistic and beautifully composed and lit but ultimately may feel both a little small and a little detached. That leaves Claudio Miranda as the only genuine challenger to ‘Slumdog’ in my humble opinion. And I’m predicting it to win because I simply refuse to believe that the guilds and BAFTA will line-up with AMPAS so perfectly.
Costume design
With ‘Slumdog’ predicted for cinematography, editing, score and song; ‘The Dark Knight’ for sound editing and sound mixing; and ‘Benjamin Button’ for art direction, makeup and visual effects that leaves costume design in the air.
‘The Duchess’ has collected the guild award and the BAFTA and the costumes are sumptuous and incredibly intricate. It’s the favourite in my opinion. ‘Milk’’s costumes did tremendously well to break the 1970s taboo but a win is out of the question. Similarly, and despite his legendary status, Albert Wolsky’s work on ‘Revolutionary Road’ is perfect but perhaps too subtle for a category that likes costumes to almost be a character. ‘Australia’ and ‘Benjamin Button’ are definite contenders. Catherine Martin’s designs are brilliantly evocative of the 1930s and she has to do rugged exterior costumes and classy evening wear. Meanwhile Jacqueline West designs costumes spanning multiple decades in a visually stunning film. That being said O’Connor’s work has the wow factor and I think the costumes are simply too noticeable to lose.
The acting categories
Actress in a leading role is being labelled as a heavyweight showdown between Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet. As much as I’d love to believe that I am sceptical and have held firmly to my belief that Mrs Winslet will win this Oscar. The evidence seems almost overwhelming: she does an accent; she ages; she plays an incredibly unsympathetic character and yet makes you sympathise; she is considered due; she leads a Best Picture nominee that defied expectations on nomination morning; she has Harvey Weinstein behind her; she gets naked. It’s all there! Not to mention that each time her name has appeared on a major industry awards ballot this season for this performance, she has won.
Yes Meryl is a legend. Yes she won the SAG (but Kate was in the supporting category there). Yes she is on a twelve nomination losing streak. Yes her SAG speech was infectious and adorable. But with ‘Revolutionary Road’ out there in the ether as well this just feels like Kate’s year. And sometimes that’s all it takes.
The real titanic duel is in the actor in a leading role category. Anybody confidently predicting a win for either Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke is out of their minds. They may be proven right but their conviction is misplaced. This could go either way. I have already written extensively on this in a previous article and have come down on the side of Mickey Rourke. It’s just too sensational and heart-warming a moment for the voters to pass up I think.
Pity any actor who is announced as winning best supporting actor in place of Heath Ledger. I think it would make for perhaps the most awkward on-stage moment in Oscar history. I sincerely doubt it will happen. Heath’s performance as The Joker needs no additional praise from me. It was simply breathtaking. An actor of Heath’s stature need not be aggrandized in death beyond that which he was in life and it is in that spirit that he must win this award. Not because of some notion of sentiment but because he managed to tread so carefully with this performance. He is not present for large sections of ‘The Dark Knight’ but his presence hovers over proceedings and his physical presence jolts the movie into another realm each and every time. It would have been easy to fall prey to either blending in with this incredible cast (Freeman, Caine, Oldman, and yes Bale) or chewing the scenery to such an extent as to distract from the story. That Heath was able to tread that narrow path so brilliantly is the reason why he simply must, and will, win this Oscar.
Finally, actress in a supporting role. Penelope Cruz seems to have the inside track here following her success at BAFTA. A plum and fun role in a Woody Allen movie has historically been Oscar gold. But that formula broke down in 1995. What Cruz has going for her, apart from the performance itself, is that she brings some fun to an otherwise very serious list of acting contenders (Penn, Rourke, Winslet, Streep and Ledger). But there are alternatives and I am suspicious that BAFTA can match up for a third consecutive year. Amy Adams is the long-shot and Marisa Tomei, despite baring all and having a typical Oscar role probably is not going to collect a second statuette, even on Mickey’s coat-tails. But Viola Davis or Taraji P. Henson could definitely be called to the podium. Ultimately though I am sticking with Cruz on the assumption that Davis’ role might be a little too small (at 12 minutes) although I know smaller performances have won in the past. Similarly, I assume that ‘Benjamin Button’ does not have the legs to generate a ‘focal win’ a la Tilda Swinton last year. Henson was the heart of ‘Benjamin Button’ but when you’re talking about a film that, in my opinion, lacked heart that’s not the best argument in her favour. Cruz is an international superstar, delivering a fun performance in a critically admired film and I think that’s a great recipe for Oscar.
Those pesky short and documentary categories
The documentary and short film categories are the bane of most Oscar prognosticators lives. Only small sections of the Academy get to vote on them so it’s incredibly difficult to gauge the outcome.
The documentary feature category seems preordained for ‘Man on Wire’, a movie that has been primed for awards seemingly since its release. But a smaller pool of Oscar voters may buck the trend. We should take very seriously two alternatives. First, ‘The Betrayal’ – which tells the story of a Laotian family in the aftermath of U.S. bombings during Vietnam – is an incredibly moving portrait and has established cinematographer Ellen Kuras behind it. She lensed ‘Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’ and, as Nathanial Rogers points out, has been working on this project for over twenty years. It marks her directorial debut at the age of 49. Given her years of service to the industry and the number of actors and directors with whom she has worked I imagine her ‘story’ is better known in AMPAS circles than it is across the blog-o-sphere. Her film should be seriously considered. Second is ‘Trouble the Water’, an outstanding documentary focusing on a married couple from the 9th ward that was so battered by Hurricane Katrina. The tag line for the movie – ‘It’s not about a hurricane. It’s about America.’ – captures the essence of the movie and the depth of emotion explored. It was my favourite documentary of the year and it is a serious challenger.
In the short documentary category ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’ screams Oscar winner to me. A half hour documentary about a photographer who captured images of the victims of the Khmer Rouge is sure to pull the emotional heartstrings. That being said the other contenders all have a claim to that dealing as they do with Martin Luther King’s assassination, efforts to eradicate Polio and the social ostracism suffered by a young girl with a cleft pallet.
As for the shorts well the animated category features that remarkable and wonderful offering that preceded the screenings of ‘Wall-E’ (at least in the UK). I am talking about Doug Sweetland’s 5 minute short ‘Presto’ about a magician’s assistant (a rabbit) who causes havoc for his master. I fell in love with this short when I saw it and have re-watched it numerous times on DVD. The question is to what extent backlash against Pixar factors in here? If it does, even in a small way, look for an alternative winner because the voting pool for this category will likely be quite small. My hunch (that’s really all it is) is that ‘Lavatory – Lovestory’ and ‘Oktapodi’ will struggle here. The former possesses neither impact nor gloss and the latter is incredibly short even by the standards of this category clocking in at 3 minutes and may stray a little too close to ‘bizarre’. That leaves ‘This Way Up’ and ‘La Maison en Petits Cubes’. The former is a marvellous British offering about two morticians – father and son – who have terrible trouble getting to a burial. The animation is quite original but the movie is a little dark compared to traditional fare. ‘La Maison’ is the longest offering and, unlike the other two ‘contenders’ is a traditional animation (‘Presto’ and ‘This Way Up’ are both CG). The Japanese offering it tells a story about recaptured memories in a nearly submerged house and strikes a nice balance between quirky/original and accessible/loveable. It’s a tough call …
In the live action short category all five offerings will likely have some support. We have a Holocaust movie in the midst – ‘Toyland’ – that tells of a young boy deceived to believe that his Jewish neighbours are going to Toyland. But to predict the movie just because of its subject matter might be a little simplistic. Nathanial Rogers is correct when he says that a Holocaust theme might help you towards a win but it doesn’t guarantee it. I am betting that ‘The Pig’ may be a little controversial and that ‘On the Line’ may be a little raw. My prediction is a small Irish film called ‘New Boy’ about an African boy who has left his homeland struggling in an Irish school.
I think we all known ‘Wall-E’ will collect the animated feature film Oscar but will fellow animation ‘Waltz with Bashir’ be so successful in the foreign language film category? My prediction is, no. I am sticking with ‘The Class’, a movie that I feel is far more traditional, less controversial and perhaps ultimately more inspiring than Ari Folman’s troubling vision.
And what of Milk?
No I don’t think it is going home empty handed. It escapes that fate by virtue of Dustin Lance Black’s screenplay. Those who are predicting ‘Wall-E’ for this award have a case but I suspect ‘Milk’ has quite a following and that screenplay will appeal to the more conservative tastes of the Academy, many of whom might facilely conclude that the long stretches of silence in ‘Wall-E’ mean it has a minimal, or partial screenplay.
So there you have it, my considered and humble predictions for Sunday night. I will round with a summary and my own personal ballot for the season. Happy Oscar night!
Summary
Actor in a leading role – Mickey Rourke (‘The Wrestler’).
Actor in a supporting role – Heath Ledger (‘The Dark Knight’).
Actress in a leading role – Kate Winslet (‘The Reader’).
Actress in a supporting role – Penelope Cruz (‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’)
Animated feature film – ‘Wall-E’ (Andrew Stanton).
Art direction – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Donald Graham Burt; Victor J. Zolfo).
Cinematography – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Claudio Miranda).
Costume design – ‘The Duchess’ (Michael O’Connor).
Directing – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (Danny Boyle).
Documentary (Feature) – ‘Man on Wire’ (James Marsh; Simon Chinn).
Documentary (Short) – ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’ (Steven Okazaki).
Film editing – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (Chris Dickens).
Foreign language film – ‘The Class’ (France) directed by Laurent Chantet.
Makeup – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Greg Cannom).
Music (Score) – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (A.R. Rahman).
Music (Song) – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (‘Jai Ho’) music by A.R. Rahman; lyric by Gulzar.
Short film (Animated) – ‘This Way Up’ (Alan Smith; Adam Foukes).
Short film (Live action) – ‘New Boy’ (Steph Green; Tamara Anghie).
Sound editing – ‘Wall-E’ (Ben Burtt; Matthew Wood).
Sound mixing – ‘The Dark Knight’ (Lora Hirschberg; Gary Rizzo; Ed Novick).
Visual effects – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Eric Barba; Steve Preeg; Burt Dalton; Craig Barron).
Writing (Adapted screenplay) – ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (Simon Beaufoy).
Writing (Original screenplay) – ‘Milk’ (Dustin Lance Black).
‘Slumdog Millionaire’ – 6
‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ – 4
‘The Dark Knight’ – 2
‘Wall-E’ – 2
‘The Class’, ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’, ‘The Duchess’, ‘Man on Wire’, ‘Milk’, ‘New Boy’, ‘The Reader’, ‘This Way Up’, ‘Vicky Cristina Barcelona’, ‘The Wrestler’ – 1
And my personal awards ballot for the season
Picture – ‘Wendy and Lucy’.
Achievement in directing – ‘Paranoid Park’ (Gus Van Sant).
Actor in a leading role – Sean Penn (‘Milk’).
Actor in a supporting role – Heath Ledger (‘The Dark Knight’).
Actress in a leading role – Michelle Williams (‘Wendy and Lucy’).
Actress in a supporting role – Samantha Morton (‘Synecdoche, New York’).
Animated feature – ‘Waltz with Bashir’ (Ari Folman).
Art direction – ‘Synecdoche, New York’ (Mark Friedberg).
British film – ‘In Bruges’.
Cinematography – ‘Flight of the Red Balloon’ (Pin Bing Lee).
Costume design – ‘Australia’ (Catherine Martin).
Documentary feature – ‘Trouble the Water’ (Tia Lessin; Carl Deal).
Documentary short – ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’ (Steven Okazaki).
Film editing – ‘Burn After Reading’ (Roderick Jaynes).
Foreign language film – ‘Waltz with Bashir’ (Ari Folman).
Makeup – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Greg Cannom).
Music (Score) – ‘Wall-E’ (Thomas Newman).
Music (Song) – ‘The Wrestler’ (The Wrestler) by Bruce Springsteen.
Short film (animated) – ‘Presto’ (Doug Sweetland).
Short film (live action) – ‘Love You More’ (Adrian Sturges; Sam Taylor Wood; Patrick Marber).
Sound editing – ‘Wall-E’ (Ben Burtt; Matthew Wood).
Sound mixing – ‘The Dark Knight’ (Lora Hirschberg; Gary Rizzo; Ed Novick).
Visual effects – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’ (Eric Barba; Steve Preeg; Burt Dalton; Craig Barron).
Writing (Adaptation) – ‘Revolutionary Road’ (Justin Haythe).
Writing (Original) – ‘In Bruges’ (Martin McDonaugh).
2 – ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’, ‘The Dark Knight’, ‘In Bruges’, ‘Synecdoche, New York’, ‘Wall-E’, ‘Waltz with Bashir’, ‘Wendy and Lucy’, ‘The Wrestler’.
1 – ‘Australia’, ‘Burn After Reading’, ‘The Conscience of Nhem En’, ‘Flight of the Red Balloon’, ‘Man on Wire’, ‘Milk’, ‘New Boy’, ‘Paranoid Park’, ‘Presto’, ‘Revolutionary Road’.
Paddy M says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 12:12pm
Oh Daniel, how you write. How you write indeed. Thank you thank you thank you.
HBK says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 12:22pm
Pretty solid predictions .
Agree with most , but I think :
Slumdog will win Cinematography .
Sean Penn will break our hearts by winning , even though he does not want to .
The short categories seem incorrect , other films will win there .
Penelope Cruz could easily lose .
Say NO To Ben Button! says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 12:43pm
Slumdog is definitely taking cinematography. I think Ben Button really might take 0. 3 is most likely, I´d be happy if it were limited to two, and they could give the Oscars to Angelina Jolie and my dog for all I care if Ben Button walks away empty handed. I´d be ecstatic.
red_wine says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 12:53pm
I applaud your own personal choices. I would write which categories I agree with but I think all of them are really great and deserving choices.
Especially Wendy & Lucy, a film that many people will watch years later and be astonished at the level of naturalism it achieves. Also nice to see absolutely no Slumdog.
But I disagree with your Screenplay choices. I thought Rev Road was partially ruined because of its screenplay. It seemed specially misjudged and badly written in the beginning but improved in quality towards the end. The dialogue was hammy in many places. Amongst the nominees I like the adaptations of Slumdog and Reader.
Derek says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:01pm
Funny article on improving Oscars.
http://www.latina.com/blogs/vivo-por-tivo/6-ways-oscars-can-become-watchable-tv-again
Glenn says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:04pm
Yeah I too agree with most but I suspect Slumdog will come away winning a minimum of 7 …. I think you have cinematography wrong. I think the important question is where the BIG shocks will be!!!
William says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:22pm
Paranoid Park sucks.
DBibby says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:52pm
These predictions and potential match-ups/spoliers are mostly on the money IMO. Outside of the shorts my predix match 18/21 (yes, I too think Slumdog will win cinematography)
Afrika says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:55pm
Langella/ Jenkins upset is in full effect.
David says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 1:59pm
Couldn’t agree more with Samantha Morton.
Paul Outlaw says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 2:05pm
I’m glad that there are only a handful of nominees whose win would “upset” me, otherwise I’d be a miserable wretch. In any case, Benjamin Button will take home at least two and I hope Milk gets at least one.
Zach says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 2:33pm
Your boldest predictions are very tempting, from cinematography to foreign film. But I think you overlook in the Sound Mixing category the fact that Slumdog already won the CAS *and* the BAFTA. No Country lost the BAFTA to The Bourne Ultimatum, FWIW. However, I will most likely predict whichever film wins the Sound Editors Guild to take both awards, as I see a split unlikely since most people don’t know the difference between the two categories, and the Sound Editors Guild is more accurate.
loving_KATE_WINSLET says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 2:46pm
last minute indicator for a win in BEST ACTRESS is the DRESS that they are wearing…for the last ten year every BA winner has worn gorgeous/iconic/some controversial dress..
98- GWYNETH-gorgeous pink gown
99-HILARY-best dress among the nominees that year
00-JULIA-iconic black and white dress
01-HALLE-who could forget that dress…
02-NICOLE-boring one..
03-CHARLIZE-old hollywood glamour
04-HILARY-knockout backless dress
05-REESE-i think keira has a better dress that year
06-HELEN-even her can wear a lowcut neckline
07-MARION-controversial mermaidlike dress
KATE better wear a gorgeous gown this SUNDAY…she has worn boring dresses for the last 5 times she has been nominated
Georgie says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 2:50pm
I personally love your mention of Revolutionary Road for Adapted Screenplay, because I feel like Haythe did a wonderful and faithful job with the source material. I actually disagree that it improved towards the end, I felt like the ending was rushed and was disappointed that he [or maybe it was Mendes, I don't know] cut out the note left by April. Which for me wrapped up the Wheelers story much better than a shot of Frank watching his kids.
In your personal awards you listed The Wrestler as winning two awards but I only see it winning one…
Hella Good says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 3:02pm
These are predictions even a man on the street could throw at you. Be a little more personal honey, or the readers will just read the first two or more sentences and just click away to find something more exciting and interesting. Bleeh.
Aaron Leggo says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 3:04pm
A fantastic list of predictions. I agree with lots of it myself. After seeing Slumdog (a while before the noms were announced), I predicted that the movie would win Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, and Score. That seems pretty clear now, since the editing and score are exactly what appeals to AMPAS voters in those categories and the first three are tightly sewn up. But I made that prediction back when I assumed that Springsteen would win for Song. With him out of the race, I guess that Slumdog will win that one, too. So I think Daniel’s prediction of 6 Oscars for Slumdog is dead on.
I also agree about the Sound categories. I don’t expect Slumdog to take either (especially not Sound Editing) and I think there’s a good chance that The Dark Knight takes both. But all those Wall-E sounds will be tough to pass up in the Sound Editing category, so my final prediction is for that to win.
And regarding cinematography, I think it could well go to Claudio Miranda, but I’m sticking to my crazy prediction that Tom Stern will take it for Changeling. The voters seemed to like that movie a little more than was expected, so I think they might hand it that award.
Finally, I’m amazed that everyone is predicting Benjamin Button for Makeup. Maybe I’m on crack or something, but I am very confident that Hellboy II will win that award. AMPAS turns their back on a lot of genre fare in a lot of places, but not in this category. So I’m sticking with that prediction, too.
Either way, we’re getting close. I can’t wait for Sunday!!!
JR says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 3:09pm
I’m also looking out for Hellboy II for Best Make-up. I also want The Witness from the Balcony of of Room 306 to win Documentary short. It will be much deserved.
GO MICKEY ROURKE!!!!
Hans says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 4:15pm
So why MUST Milk win one? There have been movies with worse no-win streaks (Gangs of New York, Color Purple)
Eduardo Gigante says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 4:36pm
I’m sorry, but didn’t “Pearl Harbor” win sound editing but lose sound mixing to “Black Hawk Down”?
(honestly, I didn’t understand the sound stat)
The Filmatelist says:
Thursday, February 19, 2009 at 4:38pm
“An interesting bit of trivia discovered by Guy Lodge…” (re: Sound Mixing/Editing splits).
Uh, discovered? I’ve been sounding that drum for weeks: http://www.awardsdailyforums.com/showpost.php?p=550175&postcount=16
Denton says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 12:25am
I think Henson might just steal the BSA trophy so TCCBB will win some of the awards and I would be very pleased she was my favourite character and performance in that movie which i found quite dull
Daniel Kenealy says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 6:52am
The Filmatelist – many apologies if I missed posts on the forums, I don’t have time to keep up to date with them all. It’s possible that Guy Lodge similarly missed it. Kudos for discovering it because it’s a very interesting stat indeed.
Hella Good – I am trying to make the most accurate predictions possible. So, although I appreciate your feedback, I am not going to sex up my predictions simply to make them more ‘readable’. I hope the way that I write makes the article readable, if not then I have work to do! But the point is to accurately predict and call upsets when I genuinely sense one, not to be controversial for the sake of it.
Hans – Milk does not necessarily have to win an Oscar. I agree it’s feasible if could go 0 for 8. My statement was that I don’t think it’s going home empty handed by virtue of an original screenplay win. I did not state that some higher power has pre-ordained at least one trophy for it.
Eduardo Gigante – the sound stat means that they have never split the two sound awards between two films that were both nominated in both categories. Of course the two sound awards have been split in the past. For instance just two years ago ‘Dreamgirls’ won sound mixing and ‘Iwo Jima’ won sound editing but neither of the films were nominated for BOTH sound awards.
This stat would suggest that barring victories in sound categories this year by Iron Man or CCOBB (unlikely) that one movie (Slumdog, Wall-E, TDK, Wanted) will win BOTH sound awards. If they split them it’ll be a first!
They have split the awards between one film that was nominated in both categories and one film that was not, for example:
2004 – The Incredibles won sound editing and was nominated for sound mixing, where it lost to Ray (which was not nominated for sound editing)
2003 – Master and Commander won sound editing and was nominated for sound mixing, where it lost to Return of the King (which was not nominated for sound editing)
2002 – The Two Towers won sound editing and was nominated for sound mixing, where it lost to Chicago (which was not nominated for sound editing)
Georgie – error of counting! Yes The Wrestler wins just one of my personal awards.
Chris Price says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 12:03pm
Very good predix, Daniel. We differ on a few occasions, but not much. I, like you, predict The Class in Foreign Film, but am also predicting a surprise win for Anne Hathaway, for example. Another place we differ is in the Editing category. I expect The Dark Knight to win this award, going off the example of The Bourne Ultimatum winning it previously. Hope I’m right about that one. Here’s my personal ballot for 2008.
BEST PICTURE
The Dark Knight
BEST DIRECTOR
Ari Folman, Waltz With Bashir
BEST ACTOR
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Synecdoche, New York
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST EDITING
The Dark Knight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
BEST ART DIRECTION
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Dark Knight
BEST MAKEUP
The Dark Knight
BEST SCORE
WALL-E
BEST SONG
“The Wrestler”
BEST SOUND EDITING
WALL-E
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Dark Knight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
WALL-E
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Man On Wire
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Waltz With Bashir
BEST UK FILM
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Presto
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Didn’t see any this year (most years, really)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience Of Nhem Eh (actually saw this one!)
The Dark Knight – 6
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, WALL-E – 3
Waltz With Bashir, Rachel Getting Married, Slumdog Millionaire, The Wrestler – 2
Synecdoche, New York, Man On Wire, Presto, The Conscience Of Nhem Eh – 1
On a side note, I’ve already seen one of the best movies of 2009, and one of the worst movies of the year! They would be, respectively, The Brothers Bloom and Amelia. Bloom really knocked me out and I would like to submit Rachel Weisz as an early candidate for Supporting Actress. I’d also like to submit Mira Nair’s Amelia for every Razzie it is eligible for. What a piece of shit.
The Filmatelist says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 12:18pm
:sniff: Thanks for noticing, man.
There’s not much I can take issue with among your picks, though I think all the shorts will go to other films (though in one case, I know the nominee personally, so it’s hard for me to be completely objective).
I also know a few of the sound nominees personally, too, so the Wish/Believe split can be tough. Ultimately, I’m also predicting TDK for Mixing and the Pixar for Editing, not because I think it’ll pan out that way, but because I think one of those two will win both, but I can’t be sure which so I’m hedging my bets by splitting the difference!
Thanks for the write-up.
Daniel Kenealy says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 3:56pm
The Filmatelist: pass on best wishes and good luck to all the nominees that you know!
As for hedging in the sound categories I guess I’m sort of doing that as well. Probably what’ll happen is that they’ll split them the opposite way I predicted!
Claire-Anne says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 5:37pm
If Penelope Cruz wins on Sunday, I will throw up. Its not that she is bad, she is just undeserving for that role. Yuck!!! And people’s stupid f-ing excuse that they want to see her lover Javier Bardem hand her the Oscar because they think it would be sweet. THAT is the dumbest damn thing ever. Who the f. cares who hands her the Oscar? It could be Ruth Buzzi or Julia Roberts, that don’t matter!!!! Give it to Viola. Or Amy. Maybe Taraji. Even give Marisa a 2nd one. Just not Penelope!!!!
Paul Outlaw says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 5:47pm
Ruth Buzzi presenting Best Supporting Actress to Penélope Cruz would make up for a lot of the tedium in some of the last ten Oscar broadcasts.
Claire-Anne says:
Friday, February 20, 2009 at 6:02pm
To be perfectly honest, I would rather see Ruth Buzzi at the Oscars instead of that f-ing idiot Jennifer Lopez. Why should she be allowed at the Oscars? She should just barely be allowed to even watch the Oscars at her house. She keeps making crappy films that do nothing for the form. I hate her azz.