49 Comments

1. 1
   

   JR says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:41pm

   Seems about right. No matter what, it’s a fight between Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker. Glad to see those two at the top.
2. 2
   

   the other mike says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:46pm

   how is Up In The Air the number 1 when it aint won anything and was snubbed somewhat at the SAG’s? what do these professional Oscar wathchers know that we dont? are they married to Oscar voters or best riends with them? i’d have thought The Hurt Locker as clear number 1.
3. 3
   

   DCIJB says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:48pm

   I hope all the people who said that in a five best picture nominee year, Avatar wouldn’t even be in the discussion take a look at this chart.
4. 4
   

   George says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:48pm

   Wait, The Lovely Bones and The Blind Side at #11 and #12!?
   Crazy Heart and Where the Wild Things Are have a much better shot than those two.
5. 5
   

   sirio11 says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:54pm

   I think the race is gonna be between Avatar and Up in the Air, to be honest, I can’t see an scenario with The Hurt Locker winning Oscar best picture
6. 6
   

   JR says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 2:59pm

   I don’t see how this is a race between Avatar and Up in the Air. The Hurt Locker has more going for it than Avatar. The fact that The Hurt Locker came out so early in the year and still managed to hold on to that praise is remarkable. Just shows how much support the film has.
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   Kyle says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:03pm

   I saw Up in the Air last night, was extremely underwhelmed…it was boring, predictable, and save for the nude backside of Vera Farmiga there was really nothing for me to get excited about.

   Going to see Avatar tonight.
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   Stephen Holt says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:11pm

   Interesting that only 1 vote separates Meryl and Carey…

   And yes, these people actually KNOW Oscar voters, BTW.
9. 9
   

   Gregoire says:
   Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:13pm

   I still think 500 Days of Summer and The Messenger have a chance, more than The Blind Side and The Lovely Bones, certainly. I also think Invictus is not as strong as people think.

   Oh and why did Pete Hammond put Sandra Bullock as Best Supporting Actress?
10. 10
    

    Olin says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:18pm

    Well, Colin has some major catching up/ass kissing to do.
11. 11
    

    Ryan says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:19pm

    Haha only one person didn’t list Mo’Nique as first in Best Supporting Actress. Oddly enough, he placed her as 4th? Really?
12. 12
    

    Joao Garcia says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:19pm

    AVATAR WON’T WIN BEST PICTURE! ALMOST NONE OF THE FOREIGNERS OF THE ACADEMY WILL VOTE FOR IT!

    IT’S UP IN THE AIR X THE HURT LOCKER X INGLORIOUS BASTERDS. PERIOD.

    P.S.: Don’t discard Inglorious Basterds – it has the money, the foreigners and a storyline the Academy loves (remember The Reader)
13. 13
    

    Mark F. says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:22pm

    I think “Nine” drops off the list soon. “Up In The Air” looks like the winner at this point, with “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” having an outside chance. The low B.O. of “The Hurt Locker” worries me. And no, “Basterds” ain’t gonna be the surprise winner, but it is a lock for a nom.
14. 14
    

    Nel says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:29pm

    @ Stephen – Don’t you mean points? Meryl has 9 nos 1 rankings but Mulligan has more 1 and 2 rankings.
    I think it is a close race at the moment but the Globes and SAG will probably tell us more.
    I personally think Sidibe could still win.
15. 15
    

    Bastoche says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:33pm

    So, since In the Loop is eligible after all (no OnDemand disqualification: http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/reminderlist2009.pdf ), can we start a grassroots campaign here for Peter Capaldi?
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    A says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 3:45pm

    Can we please pick our own AD nominees like we did last year?! That was so much fun
17. 17
    

    unlikelyhood says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 4:02pm

    Strong chart. It’s hard to imagine a 10-film slate without that Top 8. I think the other two will be “chick films,” meaning NOT the Coens, but two from this list: An Education, Lovely Bones, Julie & Julia, It’s Complicated…and/or *maybe* The Blind Side.
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    dlen says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 4:48pm

    I hate to keep saying it but It’s Complicated deserves no awards consideration at all. None.
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    red_wine says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 4:50pm

    I dunno if this has been posted but here are the New York Post critics

    Lou Lumenick

    1. UP IN THE AIR
    2. UP
    3. A SERIOUS MAN
    4. INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
    5. AVATAR
    6. INVICTUS
    7. PRECIOUS
    8. FANTASTIC MR. FOX
    9. IN THE LOOP
    10.PONYO

    Kyle Smith

    1. INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
    2. UP
    3. FANTASTIC MR. FOX
    4. WATCHMEN
    5. FUNNY PEOPLE
    6. UP IN THE AIR
    7. AN EDUCATION
    8. IN THE LOOP
    9. OF TIME AND THE CITY
    10.SHALL WE KISS?

    Overlap: Up, Inglorious Basterds, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Up In the Air, In The Loop
20. 20
    

    Vermicious Knid says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 4:56pm

    Awesome to see In the Loop on both lists.
    Also, so interesting that we all thought Original Screenplay would be weak, and Adapted would be strong, when it’s soooooo much the other way around, now.
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    Corey Bloom says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 4:56pm

    ^those two lists are probably the closest to my own so far
22. 22
    

    HaroldsMaude says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 5:21pm

    I would adore a Bridges/Streep/Waltz acting threesome take (I haven’t seen Precious so I can’t speak for Mo’nique. However I haven’t seen Crazy Heart and I’ll still speak for Jeff Bridges. Hell I’ve been waiting for him to get recognized for years).

    And great to see (500) Days make it onto another screenplay top 5. It’d be great to see those guys make it to The Show come Oscar Night.
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    Hunter says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 5:25pm

    Why is Precious in the top five when it has won no best picture or director precursors? Ridiculous.
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    Chris says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 5:31pm

    Up in the Air will win. Not because its the best film of the year but because its a well made topical american movie. Any other year it wouldn’t but the same can be said of a lot of oscar winners. Including last years Slumdog.
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    Benjers says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 5:54pm

    The oscars should just have American voters, the Brits have thier own awards so why do they still get to vote in the oscars, and get to put crap like The Reader and Frost/Nixon in the BP race.
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    Hunter says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 5:58pm

    It will be interesting to see how Precious does in England where there is no white liberal guilt about once owning negro slaves to help it get nominated for major awards.
27. 27
    

    Clayton says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 6:00pm

    I don’t understand why (500) Days of Summer never makes it onto these predictions lists. It’s been getting quite a few honors and made a number of Top 10s. It seems like it has a good chance at a nomination.
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    A-Dog says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 6:00pm

    Must say I’m a little surprised to see Christian McKay so low on the list. I felt like he’d been picking up serious buzz.
29. 29
    

    Blake says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 6:14pm

    The Oscars aren’t REALLY about the best movie each year. They’re a reflection of current attitudes. That’s why Slumdog won last year. Yeah it was a pretty good movie (I’d give it an A-) but very few people, if any, genuinely think it was the best movie of 2008. The economy had just taken a dive and everyone was depressed and a feel-good, inspirational, triumph-of-the-human-spirit type movie was just what the doctor ordered. That’s why Slumdog won. And that’s why Up in the Air will win. It’s all about the zeitgeist.
30. 30
    

    Hunter says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 6:22pm

    @ Benjens

    Because those Brits directed Gladiator, Lawrence of Arabia, Slumdog Millionaire, American Beauty, Shakespeare in Love, The English Patient, Gandhi, Chariots of Fire, Midnight Cowboy, Oliver and Tom Jones, all of which won Best Picture.
31. 31
    

    Pablo (Col) says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 6:53pm

    All but A Serious Man. That one does not feel right. I know the Academy is very tricky but i would rather vote for Star Trek and Coraline.
32. 32
    

    j says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:13pm

    That’s a sad T10. Mostly because it’s been mine for over 3 months, except that Bones was there instead of Basterds. If that’s the T10, that’s just soo predictable and boring. If it were up to me, without being able to touch the T5, I’d replace:
    A Serious Man: A Single Man
    An Education: Bright Star
    Invictus: Crazy Heart
    Nine: Julie & Julia

    Avatar has the 2nd-most #1′s.
    T5 votes: Air/Locker 15, Avatar 14, Precious 13, Basterds 7, Invictus 4, Up 3, Nine/Education 2

    Reitman has the 2nd-most #1′s. Good to see that some aren’t predicting Tarantino.
    Good to see that Cornish has support still. Sidibe has more #1′s than Mulligan; hmm.
    I would’ve thought Clooney would be bigger.
    One person dissents from the consensus of the supporting players. Tucci & Kendrick capture the majority of the runner-up vote.
    Good to see everyone has Moore as a nominee.
    I was hoping Up would finally win an animated film a screenplay Oscar.
33. 33
    

    Dylan says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:22pm

    I think Fantastic Mr. Fox has a better chance at a screenplay win than Up.
34. 34
    

    Afrikkka live from Miami b*tches says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:34pm

    what is The Lovely Bones doing on that list? and why is Invictus so high up? Up in the Air is number 1? what a joke
35. 35
    

    Johan says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:45pm

    How come two Tomatometer fortysomething percent films (Nine and TLB) are still considered likely Best Picture nomination candidates?
36. 36
    

    Craig says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:55pm

    How is Precious that far ahead of Inglourious Basterds? They’re neck and neck at best.
37. 37
    

    Diane says:
    Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 8:27pm

    I’m surprised that Nine is on there considering the bad early reviews.
38. 38
    

    Benjers says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 12:09am

    @30

    Yes but Americans can not join the British Academy and American films have won their picture prize before. The Academy should only let Americans join, the same way that BAFTA only lets Brits join.
39. 39
    

    Benjers says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 12:14am

    BTW what will win at BAFTA this year, Brtish Films have done poorly in Picture category this season, all the BD nods will pry all be Americans, I can’t see Precious or UITA winning BAFTA’s picture prize and THL hasn’t had nearly as warm as a reception with foreign voters.
40. 40
    

    Ryan Adams says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 12:34am

    “BTW what will win at BAFTA this year…”

    Maybe BAFTA will be smarter than any group thus far and finally give Bright Star the recognition it deserves. Failing that, An Education FTW.
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    Give Meryl Oscar #3 says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 1:37am

    The Academy is not American only because it isn’t the American Academy. It is THE Academy. That’s why the BAFTAs are a precursor and the Oscars are the big event.
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    Give Meryl Oscar #3 says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 1:50am

    As for Carey vs. Meryl, we won’t have a good idea unless one wins both SAG and BAFTA. They are in different categories at the globes. I don’t think Gabby has a shot in this one, but I definitely could be wrong.
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    Stephen Holt says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 7:54am

    Watch “An Education” win Best Ensemble and throw everything into a *cough*cough* cocked hat.
44. 44
    

    alexg says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 8:13am

    No guts, no glory: Abbie Cornish is IN for an Oscar Nomination. Forget the Globe and SAG snubs–she was tremendous.
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    Adamd says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 10:29am

    Benjers,
    Around a fifth, maybe even a quarter, of Bafta’s voting membership is based in America. Many are expat Brits, but many are actually American. And incidentally, loads of Americans working in the UK film industry are also in Bafta. I believe there are also about 500 Ampas members based in Britain – mostly proper filmmakers who’ve won or been nominated for Oscars.
    This is why the studios regard Bafta as an important bellwether for the Oscars. Because there is a significant crossover between the Bafta and Ampas constituencies.
    It’s a bit of a beef for some Brits, who think that indie Brit films don’t get a fair crack at the Baftas as a result of the transatlantic bias.
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    Inglorious basterds says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 1:41pm

    Just seen and i think it has a better chance to win best picture then a movie like Precious which for some reason has all of a sudden drop out of the box office. I even think it has the best chance to win best picture. It is critically aclaim, did well at the box office, for the oscars it is considered hip and the most important the movie is about killing Nazis and everyone knows how much the academy likes movies about the Holocaust. I haven’t seen much movies this year but so far it was the best.
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    J. Taylor says:
    Sunday, December 20, 2009 at 2:25pm

    Hunter is a racist.
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    the other mike says:
    Monday, December 21, 2009 at 12:34am

    so thats why so many brits win oscars, they have a huge constituency within the academy and keep voting 4 themseleves, a damn shame, i cant remember the last time an american won an acting oscar.
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    the other mike says:
    Monday, December 21, 2009 at 12:35am

    i like hunter, leave him alone, he isnt racist, just isnt politically correct. plus he is funny, and that is why i put him way above jeffrey wells, who just seems sleazy with his.