The State of the Race: Best Picture is Anyone’s Game
It has been said that the only really exciting Oscar races are those with a wide open Best Picture race. For two years in a row, we had fairly open and shut Best Picture contenders. This year, there are several vying for the top spot. While Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker are the two strongest heading into the guild awards phase, there are others threatening to upset, namely, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Avatar, none of which are “Oscar movies.”
You often hear people say “that is a good movie but it isn’t an Oscars movie.” And that probably used to be true, even though the tastes of the Academy have been evolving. Generally speaking, there are genres that are still considered off limits. Broad comedy is one, sci-fi is another, and fantasy. Perhaps we can cross fantasy off the list since Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings kicked it down. Still, not just any fantasy movie can be considered — it has to reach the same ambitious heights and achieve as much success as the Jackson trilogy; that is no easy feat. Having grand ambition to that degree has become scarce. It costs too much. There is too much risk involved. Why bother making big movies when smaller movies can make just as money and do just as well in the Oscars race.
But boy, have times changed. At the end of the Making of Gone With the Wind they showed the Oscar ceremony for 1939. It was short and sweet and each Oscar completely deserved. But Gone with the Wind was a mess – a big, lumbering, costly, risky, ambitious mess. Somehow, after all was said and done, perhaps due to some arrogant but intelligent producer David O. Selznick, it became a great success. It might not be considered, by critics, to be the best film of all time but there is no denying its ambition and its subsequent success. It feels like we don’t see that kind of risk anymore. But this year we did. Three of the frontrunners in this race are audacious, risky endeavors — Inglourious Basterds, Avatar and Precious. They are wildly different but each is its own unique vision, completely off the charts but still very good films. But we’re talking about what it takes to win Best Picture, not what it takes to get nominated, not what it takes to make a lasting impact on the future of cinema, which all of three of those films do.
An “Oscars movie” is generally a period drama featuring a strong leading male performance, and/or a love story (“and a bit with a dog”). But when it isn’t that, it is a film that celebrates the height of a director’s achievement, a career pinnacle that celebrates the winning film and all of the films unrecognized that came before it, because it’s finally time: Schindler’s List, The Departed, No Country for Old Men. Actors-turned-directors who make great leaps forward are often winners of the year’s Best Picture: Ordinary People, Dances with Wolves, Unforgiven, A Beautiful Mind. And then every so often, it’s just the movie, stupid. And it wins with no explanation necessary, because there are no other movies that can beat it: Gladiator, Shakespeare in Love, The Silence of the Lambs, Slumdog Millionaire, Chicago. And there are those movies that win either because two bigger films split up the vote or because the film that was supposed to win just didn’t sit well with the group: Chariots of Fire, Crash. Many of the success of Oscar’s Best Picture had to do with the public’s love for the film. That part of it has kind of changed, as the critics’ angle strengthened.
And so we come to 2009. It’s become clear that if there were only five slots for Best Picture you’d be looking at: The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air in the two prime spots. The Hurt Locker because it’s a great film and it’s the right time to finally recognize this director, and Up in the Air because it’s the movie, stupid. Giving them some heat is Inglourious Basterds, which has been doing a lot better than anyone expected and is also the work of a director who has yet to be rewarded with Best Picture, and is also one that could be considered a career pinnacle, and maybe even the movie, stupid, Precious and Avatar. So your Best Picture five right now would be: The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Avatar. Open it up to five more slots and you have Invictus, Nine, Up, An Education, and perhaps a wild card slot for a movie no one is expecting to pop up – something like A Serious Man, District 9, The Messenger, It’s Complicated, The Blind Side. That tenth slot is probably going to be a surprise. Or we hope so anyway. Also, the strongest five could suddenly shift if another movie suddenly becomes favored – like An Education, for instance. It showed up in the SAG ensemble, though the supporting players were not represented in the other categories.
So what makes an “Oscars movie”? It used to be that the movie had to make money to be considered a Best Picture winner. That has changed over the last few years rendering that rule mostly null. On the other hand, with the economy being what it is, and the Oscars spiraling down in terms of relevancy and ratings, it has seemed logical that money would somehow play a part in Oscars 2009. Now that we are here in the last act, money seems to be once again out of the equation.
The Movies
The Hurt Locker
LA Film Critics – Winner
New York Film Critics – Winner
Austin Film Critics – Winner
Boston Film Critics – Winner
Gotham Awards – Winner
DC Film Critics – Winner
Houston Film Critics – Winner
Las Vegas Film Critics – Winner
San Francisco Film Critics – Winner
Alliance of Women Film Journalists – Winner
Chicago Film Critics – Nominee
Critics Choice – Nominee
Golden Globes – Nominee
SAG Ensemble – Nominee
Strengths: right film at the right time, Kathryn Bigelow’s crowning achievement, the chance to finally reward a female director. It is a movie about men, led by a strong male performance in Jeremy Renner. It is a good movie, one that stays with you long after the first viewing. It is also one that has that thing about that makes you want to watch it again. It is fascinating from beginning to end. Without judgment, The Hurt Locker does not necessarily sell us on the idea that the Iraq war was wrong, but rather that war is hell. One part of the story of the soldiers who have been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan is not talked about much – that they often kill themselves upon returning home or that it is almost impossible to live in our world after that kind of daily trauma. The Hurt Locker shows us some of what it must be like to go out, day after day, and feel like death is waiting around the corner. The Hurt Locker is a flawless film, and there aren’t many out this year you can say that about.
Weaknesses: The money. Despite the critical acclaim and solid reviews and advocacy, the movie only made $12 million. I’ve heard it’s opening again theaters – maybe now people will go see it. Funnily enough, Jeff Wells at Hollywood-Elsewhere.com blames the lack of turn out on young “Eloi women” who would rather file their nails than see this movie. But come on, since when did women drive box office receipts?
Up in the Air
National Board of Review – Winner
Southeastern Film Critics – Winner
Utah Film Critics – Winner
Dallas Fort Worth – Winner
Indiana Film Critics – Winner
Golden Globes – Nominee
Critics Choice – Nominee
Strengths: it’s the movie, stupid. George Clooney is the Jack Nicholson of this era and his work in this film is said to be his best. The writing, directing and acting are tight. Its box office strategy is going for slow and steady wins the race but there is no doubt Up in the Air should edge towards $100 mil before all is said and done. It is a film beloved by both men and women. It isn’t divisive in any way, not political particularly, and has been named by prominent journalists as films that reveal the wounds the American people are feeling since the economy went into the toilet. Reitman, funnily enough, is one of the few who has delivered interesting female characters in the Oscar race so far.
Weaknesses: That SAG ensemble loss hurt. It seemed an easy get for them, even though the movies chosen are certainly more ensemble pieces, and even though there was a snafu with the screeners being sent out, and even though they gave the film three nominations. It’s just a plain fact that it’s only happened once in SAG’s history that the Best Picture winner (Braveheart) hadn’t been nominated for the SAG ensemble.
Either way, though, neither Up in the Air nor Avatar were nominated for it, that means that anyone predicting either to win are doing so without that crucial SAG ensemble nomination. It’s possible, for sure, it just made Up in the Air slightly less of a sure thing than it was previously, when the awards race was being determined by films that hadn’t been released to the public. In fact, it was being determined by a handful of people who had seen the film at festivals. That buzz is vital to keeping a movie like that afloat but it is also a risky play. I would have preferred to see Up in the Air open in the summer, gain momentum with its stellar box office, lodge itself firmly in the hearts of audiences before it started the awards race. There is an aspect to human nature that wants to take down anything that is doing well. Easy to heap love on The Hurt Locker when it has always felt like the underdog heading into the race.
Up in the Air will hit every other major marker, no doubt, including the PGA, the DGA, and the WGA (where it will win). If it starts winning any of the major awards, like the Globe or the Critics Choice it will come into the race much stronger. It is still the movie most people like best. And that is not nothing. By that, I mean it follows the Oscar rule: you can sit anyone down in front of it and they will get it if not love it. Anyone, grandma, the kids, the weird uncle, the checkout clerk…anyone.
Those are your two frontrunners. Now let’s look at the possible sneak attacks. Inglourious Basterds is one to fear, though I’m shocked to hear myself saying it, or feel myself typing it. At one point I felt like it was in the “lucky to be nominated” group. Why? Because it never felt like an Oscars movie. But, as we’ve just discovered, an Oscars movie can mean lots of different things and with Inglourious Basterds you have Quentin Tarantino, one of the few American auteurs who has made a really entertaining movie. That’s the funny thing about Basterds is how watchable it is. What will drive Inglourious Basterds, one suspects, are the actors. They liked it enough to give Diane Kruger a nomination. So if Inglourious wins ensemble it suddenly becomes an even bigger threat. It’s hard to imagine the Academy going for Basterds but that would make it more imaginable.
Incidentally, while watching the Making of Gone with the Wind the other night, apparently the first time they screened the film to an audience they did it at an old theater out here in California. The crowd thought they were seeing a different movie but when they sat down an announcement came on that they were about to see a movie no one had seen, etc. They said if you want to leave, leave now. And then they locked the doors and the patrons saw Gone with the Wind. This reminded me so much of Basterds in a way and it made me appreciate Tarantino all over again for his extensive knowledge of film history. Hard to imagine anyone locking the doors of a movie theater in this day and age.
Also throwing down some serious heat is Precious, Lee Daniels’ moving and disturbing, but ultimately uplifting saga of an abused woman righting her life. Unfortunately for all involved, the chatter has turned away from the subject of the film to the things that don’t matter about the film, namely the involvement of Oprah (because she’s so successful already, no one wants to see her get any more success), and the behavior of Mo’Nique.
At what cost ass kissing? How many actors have won one and it’s changed their career? Maybe a few. On the other hand, it does extend your life, so even if everyone hates you and you can’t get arrested you can always glance over and look at that statue and think, I accomplished enough ass kissing to win that gold statue.
So what exactly does ass kissing mean in the awards race? It means showing up, smiling, working the line, acting grateful for the accolades. No one, and I mean no one, is above that. The slightest whiff of entitlement or arrogance and it’s over. One must go belly-up before the leaders of the pack. And probably now more than ever since there are so many shows leading up to the Oscars. And we already know that just because one is winning something the whole way down doesn’t necessarily mean they will win the Oscar. Even Sean Penn had to put on a suit and walk the line. He didn’t like it but Clint Eastwood made him do it for Mystic River and what do you know, he won. Last year, he was so good at it he didn’t have very far to go to win that second Oscar.
Very few, if any, actors have ever won on the work alone.
I’ve seen screenwriters do it. I’ve seen the odd nominee here or there – maybe the songwriters of Once. Tilda Swinton didn’t have to do much, it appears, to get her Oscar for Michael Clayton – they just liked the movie and wanted to reward it.
The black women who have won Oscars lately have been of the non angry variety. Halle Berry is half-white and as Hollywood as they come. Jennifer Hudson was walking the line in a big way — I do remember the few times she stepped out of line she was reprimanded for it and there was some fear that she might say something to ruin her chances. Horrifying to look back and remember it that way, and yet, that’s the way it was.
Even white actors can’t really get away with a whole lot of back talk so you can imagine that intensified with black women. So here we have Mo’Nique in the Oscar race. Loud mouth, plain spoken, honest to her audience, tellin’ it like it is Mo’Nique. There is no argument that her performance is the best in the category. No one who is in the process of complaining about Precious has ever had the cajones to do that. The praise for her work has been unanimous. Therefore the only thing they have to complain about is that she’s not keeping her trap shut. She’s tellin’ it like it is.
So of course the conversation turned away from “wow, Mo’Nique was amazing in that part” to “wow, Mo’Nique, what an uppity bitch. All she cares about is money.” But it’s too late, isn’t it? You can’t put that genie back in the bottle because god forbid a non-Hollywood actor type doesn’t play the game as dictated by the five white guys in a room who decide this stuff. God forbid the rules of the game be exposed. God forbid anyone ever ask “what’s in it for me?”
The Oscar game isn’t pretty. It’s extremely competitive and there is always someone ready to take your spot if you step out of it. There is always someone ready to work the line, ready to stand up on stage and give their heartfelt, tearful speech that makes all of the voters kvell with pride that they picked the right one for their award.
I’m not saying Mo’Nique deserves to win for Precious. But I am saying, if she deserves to win because she gave the best performance but people aren’t going to vote for her for any other reason? Shame on them.
And finally, Avatar. Because we’ve already spilled much ink on Avatar, I will just try to keep the discussion on its Oscar chances. Avatar will clean up the technical awards. Just which of the techs will embrace it is yet to be seen – will the art directors? Will the cinematographers? There is still a lot of prejudice around motion-capture, and 3-D. People think that Avatar will leave a lot of Academy members shaking their head because all they really want is “love and a bit with a dog.” Since actors and writers are a big part of the voting Academy, it’s hard to imagine that they will go for Avatar. The reviews, the success, the ambition all amount to an Oscar for a movie that was about anything other than motion-captured animation. Also, they might feel that Jim Cameron has already had his big success so why reward him further? They might also feel that Avatar is a technical achievement and nothing more, thus it will win where it’s appropriate like all good sci-fi movies have done for the past few decades.
However, it’s worth noting that for once, Nancy Allen once shrieked in Carrie, “This isn’t over! This isn’t over by a LONG shot!” These will be a very interesting next few weeks.
the other mike says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:19am
Mo’nique will get Eddie Murphied. She will turn up to the Oscars thinkings its hers, then someone else will win and she will be left embarrased.
A.J says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:20am
“Inglourious Basterds, which has been doing a lot better than anyone expected”
Tom O’Neil called it a while ago
Ryan Adams says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:24am
“Tom O’Neil called it a while ago…”
Then he should have had a certified public accountant stamp it with a seal, because “a while ago” won’t hold up in court. Awards Daily has had Inglourious Basterds in the BP sidebar for months — way back when there were only 2 or 3 titles present there.
Jose says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:24am
I’ve seen 4 of those first 5 movies,
not seen Inglorious Basterds yet- not sure if I will.
The second group of 5,
I’ve not seen Invictus, or Nine which hasn’t released.
And I don’t think Up deserves to be there, (nor Precious in the first group for that matter).
The wild card I hope goes to Star Trek or Where the Wild Things Are- (haven’t seen District 9, this Tue I will).
Still, I am happy this race is anyone’s game, makes it all the more interesting.
’07 I hoped for Atonement, though I knew No Country would get it. (NCFOM was overrated imo)
’08 I hoped for Benjamin Button, though I knew Slumdog would get it. (SM was a worthy winner)
Hunter says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:25am
If you act like an entitled jerk you’re not winning the Oscar. Russell Crowe found that out the hard way the year he should have won his second Oscar, and shortly so will Mo’nique. As for Precious, no way is it in the top five; it’s won bugger all precursers and its director isn’t getting nominated. It’s just wishful thinking from you, Sasha, with no basis in fact. You can’t force people to watch a movie that they don’t want to see. That’s what happened with Brokeback Mountain and it’s what will deep six Precious.
Simon Warrasch says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:32am
Precious
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air
Nine
The Hurt Locker
An Education
Avator
Runner up:
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
A Serious Man
The Messenger
Up
Loyal says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:42am
I’m quite certain it’s Up in the Air vs Avatar vs The Hurt Locker for Best Picture.
Up in the Air is really good, great even in some parts. But the films third act is troubling and its a cold film. It’s hard to love.
Avatar is excellent despite its screenplay. Let’s be real for a minute, Avatar by way of The New World wouldn’t have worked. The film needed cheese, as much as Oz, Kong, and Star Wars needed it.
The Hurt Locker is the critical darling but no one else has seen it. It’s winning Best Director (though a strong argument could be made for Cameron) so the question is can it win both despite being such an underperformer financially.
Everything else is out of contention for Best Picture. It’s going to be long road to March 7th.
Dylan says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:45am
Golden Globes: Hurt Locker
SAGs: Inglourious Basterds
Oscars: Up in the Air
A.J says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:45am
Really Mr. Adams? Really? You’ve had Inglourious Basterds in the sidebar for months? Ok… now what exactly is your point? As Sasha said in this article “I felt like it was in the “lucky to be nominated” group” just because you had it in the sidebar does not mean you thought it was definitely going to be nominated nor does it mean you thought it was going to win. Here is the article where Tom O’Neil predicts Inglourious Basterds will win best picture just a day over a month ago. I think this is when someone might say “checkmate.”
http://goldderby.latimes.com/awards_goldderby/2009/11/oscars-prediction-inglourious-basterds-will-win-best-picture.html
Gravitas says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:47am
I think you made some very good points. When you look at the awards that each has received so far, Hurt Locker is definately in the lead. Up in the Air has only really won critical acclaim from places like Utah and Indiana. How many Oscar voters live there? Are those well-known critics awards? Not really.
I think “gravitas” will play a role in which picture wins best picture. Comedies and tongue-in-cheek films will still have a really hard time. As talented as Tarantino is as a director, it’s just not his year for that reason. Also his film is not his best film. It’s good, but it is flawed. Oddly it is flawed in the one thing that Tarantino usually excels at, casting and script. Sure he has Waltz and Laurent who are good, but he also has some razzie performances too. We won’t name names.
Nick K. says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:47am
Here’s what I think of the race so far:
Locks:
1. Up in the Air (as locked as you could get)
2. The Hurt Locker (same as UITA, only released earlier in the year)
3. Precious (say what you will haters, but it is indeed locked)
Solid:
4. Avatar (if there’s only one sci-fi film that gets in, this will be it)
5. Inglourious Basterds (Tarantino love in the Academy will propel him to the list of 10)
6. Invictus (Everybody loves Clint. Well, at least Oscar does)
Then there are those that could potentially drop out:
7. A Serious Man (Coens won recently. Dark movie even for them)
8. An Education (Mulligan love, but otherwise quiet)
9. Up (has it’s own category to win. Could split votes with “Fantastic Mr. Fox”. Maybe)
As for the #10 spot, I think it will really come down to (500) Days of Summer, A Single Man, and Where the Wild Things Are. Any one of these movies can potentially make a surprise visit. (500) has the precursors, Single has the Weinsteins, and Wild Things has the fanbase. The darkest of Dark Horses is The Messenger, which will need all the help it can get at this point. It’s been praised, but reviews don’t seal a nomination. All I can say is that this race is far more exciting than last year. I’m enjoying it greatly so far.
I remain confident that Nine, Julie & Julia, It’s Complicated and The Last Station will not get in. Reviews are either too weak or they’ll just go for Meryl in the BA category.
Jason says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:48am
thanks for not over doing avatar haha…i think it will sweep the tech awards, for sure.
the thing about mo’nique is that the performance IS that brilliant and i think if she doesn’t win the academy will look pretty bad because people will know she didn’t win because she didn’t kiss ass.
at this point her biggest threat is anna kendrick and i really don’t see her winning the oscar for her first major role (and yes that happened to j hud but that was a unique situation that had people clapping in the aisles)
Ryan Adams says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:49am
I think this is when someone might say “checkmate.”
No, A.J., you get to say “checkmate” when the last moves are all played out. Relax for 3 months; the game’s not over. Hope you didn’t lose a lot of money betting on Dreamgirls with O’Neil.
dannyboy555 says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 10:54am
I’m gonna call it:
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Avatar
An Education
Invictus
A Serious Man
Up
Where the Wild Things Are
Precious
Those are my final predictions…Nine is gonna get shut out I think.
A.J says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:00am
Checkmate for me being correct about Tom O’Neil foreseeing the power of Inglourious Basterds before anyone else, it won’t win best picture.
Robert says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:02am
AJ:
You’re acting like Inglourious Basterds has already won Best Picture. Nominations haven’t even come out yet, much less the winners announced.
For the record, at around this time back in 2006, didn’t Tom O’Neil predict Dreamgirls would win BP? Then in 2007, he predicted Sweeney Todd because there was no way a bleak film like “No Country for Old Men” would win BP.
Are you sure you want to hitch your wagon to O’Neil’s predictions?
Sasha Stone says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:07am
AJ, trust me, I reluctantly put basterds up and it was at Ryan’s urging. He calls things earlier than me sometimes and I am grateful when he persuades me in the right direction.
Ibad says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:09am
People can complain of being thrown the “racist” card at for going so far as to criticize the work of a black artist. But if the closest comparison you can get with someone like Mo’Nique’s groundbreaking triumph is Eddie Murphy or Jennifer Hudson, then no one is throwing anything at you. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
DaneM says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:11am
Reading your article makes me really wish the Academy would not have opened the door to 10 nominees. I think the five you mentioned would be the five nominees under the old Oscar format and I think those are the perfect five to summarize this year in fine cinema. At this point I have only seen three of them (Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, and Avatar), with Basterds being my favorite of the bunch. I expect to really enjoy The Hurt Locker and Precious too. Will the Academy vote as they’ve always done or will they vote to make sure a bankable film like Avatar is given the prize? I’m intrigued. I just hope we don’t wind up with another middling film like Slumdog sweeping 8 Awards.
Matt says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:16am
Here’s hoping that Avatar goes the way of Jackson’s King Kong: a couple of technical awards and nothing else. The two seem somewhat similar – good critical reception (83 vs. 81 on metacritic), obsessive love on this site, and I’m betting similar box office results – good, but not as good as expected. In a five best picture nominee year, it’s not even in the discussion.
Sasha Stone says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:17am
“The two seem somewhat similar.” How wrong can one person be. Sorry pal, you’re going to have to eat your words on that one. AD isn’t the only site loving Avatar – look beyond.
Jesus Alonso says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:18am
If there’s a movie that came out from nowhere, breaking all expectations and even jumping over a mixed reaction at its world release in Cannes, is Inglorious Basterds. We’re now talking that it is “safe” for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay noms. That Waltz is the clear frontrunner for Supporting Actor. That even Kruger may be nom’d. I think it is a big triumph for Quentin to have made a movie like this, and reach such an universal acclaim.
I’ve got my own list of movies that deserved to be up there and won’t be: Camino, In the Loop, Il Divo… any of these three actually would easily beat 80% of all time Best Picture winners.
Inglorious Basterds surprising everyone and winning Best Picture would certainly mark a before and an after, but I think this is The Hurt Locker to lose.
George says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:18am
I still think Where the Wild Things Are will get the tenth spot.
Pierre de Plume says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:20am
There’s logic to what Dylan (#8) says:
Golden Globes: Hurt Locker
SAGs: Inglourious Basterds
Oscars: Up in the Air
Precious is doing better than another Winfrey-promoted film (Beloved); the central performances help. But I think critics are treating this film with kid gloves. It may make the final 10, but I don’t think it’ll go the distance.
My assessment is that opening up the best picture category to 10 is primarily motivated by economics — and that the winner will be the film with the broadest popular appeal: Up in the Air.
rodrigo jp says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:21am
Up in the air
The hurt locker
precious
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
The White Ribbon
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Invictus
A Serious Man
Alper says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:22am
I think The Hurt Locker will win best picture Oscar like Crash.
Good cast, good director and good story = Oscar
steve real says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:24am
Once A Nigger Always A Nigger
I saw Avatar yesterday and
I can’t help to notice the subtle racists overtones.
You can clearly see the West
subjectgating and terrorizing the primitive
peoples of the world.
Right down to the Afrikaner look,
language and music.
The natives should all be white people
dressed up in black face to hammer this point home.
I don’t think this is totally conscious on
James Cameron’s part
but it left a bad taste in my mouth.
The so-called “White Man” is superior
right to the end
of the movie and the natives reminded me
of Isaac Asimov’s Gaea planet
in the Foundation trilogy.
(of which I am recently rereading)
Tell me I’m wrong fellas, but it’s a clear
apology for 19th century colonialism in my opinion.
That’s not to say I didn’t like the movie.
I thought it had some redeeming qualities outside
of his clearly anti-Western opinions and racists views.
But Jim, come on man! What the fuck?
Right down to the native customs of Afrikaners?
(Hair extensions? Are you kidding me Jim or what?)
It reminds one Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness.
You know fellas? The white man
has to keep those niggers down
even in early 21st century Hollywood film making.
Once a nigger always a nigger.
Stephen Holt says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:26am
The only person who could legitmately upset Mo’Nique is Julianne Moore, IF she is nominated. She’s been nominated in the past something like four times. Same as Bridges.
But the SAGS, the actors, went for Diane Kruger!!! She was a German actress, playing a German. Whereas Moore was a American actress playing British. Maybe they didn’t like that.
However, Oscar has a different history with Julianne Moore. They do love her and want to reward her.
Why the SAGs nominated Kruger over her, I have no idea.
But Up in the Air not getting the SAG ensemble was SHOCKING!!!
Everyone I speak to at the Academy is still raving about “Hurt Locker” and they don’t care about the money.
And Jeremy Renner stands a much better chance with the Acad now that the SAGs have validated him.
There’s always a rank and file member lately popping up unexpectedly in Best Actor. Last year it was the surprise of Daniel Jenkins for a very small movie. And ditto Ryan Gosling the year before. Maybe this year in the Best Actor race, we’ll see Renner get his due.
Alvin and the Chipdouglas says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:29am
Afrikaner doesn’t mean what you think it means.
Remy says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:29am
As it stands, I would also say “The Hurt Locker” vs. “Up in the Air” vs. “Avatar”. Although, as much as I love “Up in the Air”, and also was mesmerized by the other two, it would be equally great to see an “Inglourious Basterds” upset happen. I’m very happy to have seen it pick up so much steam in the last couple of weeks, after a long time of fearing it might be shut out of the race.
The line-up of likely nominees looks exceptionally good, in my opinion. The only exception is “Precious” – after seeing it a few months ago, I was afraid it would pull a “No Country” and “Slumdog”, and be the undisputed frontrunner throughout the whole season. I really think it stands out as a weak film, especially in this group, and I’m relieved that better movies have won the critics’ awards so far. I don’t even particularly admire Mo’Nique’s performance, and it would be fantastic to see someone more deserving win in that category, although I agree that it would be better to see it happen for the right reasons.
I’m worried that “Nine” won’t make it, mainly because I seem to be the only person on the planet who loves it – really, REALLY loves it. It’s a mystery to me how the critics can praise “Hairspray” and “Dreamgirls”, but then rip a movie as thoughtful, engrossing and well-made as “Nine” apart, and call it shallow. I have a feeling that it was nominated for so many Golden Globes mainly because they have categories specifically for comedies and musicals, and for the SAG Ensemble award because it has so many big stars sharing screen time, making it thoroughly an ensemble piece.
There’s still the BFCA nomination, though, so here’s hoping it can pull through.
By the way, I disagree that “Avatar” will sweep the technical categories. It’s certainly the most technically impressive movie of the year, or decade, or all time, and a lock for visual effects and the sound categories. But I would think that Academy members would (not unreasonably) hesitate to give things like costume, production design, cinematography and maybe even editing to such a CGI-driven movie?
Nick K. says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:31am
As good as The White Ribbon might be (I’ll find out over the break), there’s no way it’s getting into Best Picture. It’s best shots are foreign language film, Cinematography and *maybe* Original Screenplay, but that’s it. Michael “Funny Games” Haneke is just too dark for the Academy no matter how good his movies are.
Matt says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:33am
Sasha, I said the King Kong and Avatar are somewhat similar in that they had a similar critical reception and obsessive love on this site. I don’t think either statement is an incorrect assessment. As far as box office goes, we’ll just have to wait and see, but I’ll happily admit it if I’m wrong on that one point.
Bernard says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:41am
Sasha, good article, but one thought – I really don’t think Shakespeare in Love belongs in the ‘it won because simply nothing else could beat it category.’ I assuredly can’t be the only one that read that and felt a pang of sadness that Saving Private Ryan (the odds-on favorite that year) didn’t take it home…
I’d also argue that The Hurt Locker is far from the first movie in recent years to address the trauma of soldiers coming home from Middle Eastern wars and having trouble adjusting to society. With varying degrees of success look to Jarhead, Home of the Brave and Stop-Loss among others.
Sasha Stone says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:42am
“obsessive love on this site.” As I recall, my site was alone in that regard on King Kong. A more apt comparison for King Kong would be Benjamin Button probably. Not Avatar, which is getting love in a great many places, except of course with a tiny fanboy faction. Avatar will be huge; King Kong was not. Avatar is original; King Kong was not. Avatar took ten years to make; King Kong did not. The only similarity they have is the mo-cap from WETA. I obsessively love a lot of films — sorry readers.
Ryan Adams says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:43am
I’m worried that “Nine” won’t make it, mainly because I seem to be the only person on the planet who loves it – really, REALLY loves it.
We can now be friends again, Remy.
Sasha Stone says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:46am
“I assuredly can’t be the only one that read that and felt a pang of sadness that Saving Private Ryan (the odds-on favorite that year) didn’t take it home…”
I’m sorry — I knew that writing that would bring up the age-old argument. However, I am not nor have never been in the Saving Private Ryan camp. It is a great movie in its first 1/3 and then devolves into truly unbearable sap. And I say this as a Spielberg fan. Shakespeare in Love is a perfect film from beginning to end. That was far and away the right choice, imo. I know it’s not internet-popular but I’ve always felt this way.
1eyedjoker says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:49am
“But come on, since when did women drive box office receipts?”
Hmmm…
Paddy M says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:53am
steve real, I don’t think you quite ‘got’ Avatar…It wasn’t racist, nor was it an apology. It was an idictment of colonialism and brute military force and racism. To depict racism on screen effectively, you have to give us the oppressors or abusers and you have to depict their racist attitudes in some detail. That’s what Cameron is doing, complete with an enviromental slant to boot.
Mo’Nique, at this stage, doesn’t really have a legitimate contender. She’s sweeping the critics groups. As you say, Jason, they won’t give Anna Kendrick the award. And yes, Stephen Holt is quite right. The only person who has much likelihood of upsetting in Supporting Actress is Julianne Moore, and she doesn’t have an SAG nom. You can say what you like about Marcia Gay Harden here, but I don’t think this is the same.
Tufas says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:53am
I find it amazing that people don’t think Up and Precious are not worthy of a nomination or, in the latter case, the top 5 slot. Or even Inglorious Basterds, my favorite of these Bes Picture contenders. It IS a Masterpiece. Flawless.
I know, the political correct thing to say is everyone is entitled to an opinion. But I’m calling it right now: some people just have bad taste. Shame on them and here’s hoping they shut the hell up.
Oh, and btw, again: this The Hurt Locker sweep mania is turning it from good to hugely overrated film overnight.
T.
PS: Saving Private Ryan was a masterpiece till about the one hour mark. After that is was a mess. I get the Director oscar, but Picture? Eeeek.
Ryan Adams says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:55am
The so-called “White Man” is superior right to the end
What movie did you see? Did you not hear Neytiri spell it out for Jake: “You have a strong heart — no fear. But stupid. Ignorant like a child.”
“His clearly anti-Western opinions and racists views.”
get real, steve real. First of all, on my map of the universe, the Earth is not west of the Andromeda galaxy. And Cameron showed nothing but the utmost respect for the indigenous culture of the Na’vi. The only thing “superior” about the “white man” was his firepower. The mercenary earthlings were the barbarians.
Paddy M says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:57am
Now, now, Tufas. Some people just don’t see in certain films what you see. I, for instance, thought Inglourious Basterds to be overrated. I gave it 6/10 on IMDb. But I don’t think you have bad taste, just different taste. And, similarly, I didn’t love Up. I thought it was very good, but no more tbh. Shutting the hell up if you have a different opinion reminds me of The White Ribbon, in an unflattering way.
John says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 11:58am
I know that UP got amazing reviews and did veyr well $$. But a lot of people think it’s far inferior to some of Pixar’s ‘greats’.
Any chance that voters DON’T put this in Top 10; even when it seems to be a make-up for the WALL-E/DARK KNIGHT snub?
I can’t see a lot of support for it getting in; especially since Coraline & The Fantastic Mr. Fox is stealing some of it’s thunder in the ANIMATED category.
Eddi says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:00pm
I think it really comes down to Up in the Air and the hurt locker. And Up in the air will the the top prize. It’s not necessarily the best film of the crop (although it is my favorite), it is definitely a more likable film. The way they count votes in this year’s best movie, the best film doesn’t necessarily win. A film with 30% #1 votes 20% #2 and a film with 20% #1 votes and 40% #2 votes, the movie with 20% #1 votes win. Up in the air is a lighter film, in-divisive, and played by one of the most likable actor in the industry; it is simply more likable than The Hurt Locker (I do think The Hurt Locker is a better film, but I still like Up in the Air better).
Bernard says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:02pm
“I’m sorry — I knew that writing that would bring up the age-old argument. However, I am not nor have never been in the Saving Private Ryan camp. It is a great movie in its first 1/3 and then devolves into truly unbearable sap. And I say this as a Spielberg fan. Shakespeare in Love is a perfect film from beginning to end. That was far and away the right choice, imo. I know it’s not internet-popular but I’ve always felt this way.”
I wasn’t really trying to pick the which one is better argument (and I certainly agree that Shakespeare is a damn fine movie, Dench’s performance, in particular, is one of my all time favorites) – just that I don’t think Shakespeare in Love fits into the same sort of ‘must-win’ category as Slumdog etc. Saving Private Ryan had a ton of support leading into the Oscars (incl the GG, the DGA, NYFCC, PGA, SAG, WGA and a variety of regional wins) and seemed like a sure-fire winner. I think Shakespeare in Love fits into the category of an artistically strong #2 seed pulling an upset on the #1.
Sasha Stone says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:05pm
Sorry Bernard, I mis-read! I think you’re absolutely right.
Remy says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:08pm
“We can now be friends again, Remy.”
There’s someone else in the world who loves “Nine”? I’m speechless.
lovespike says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:14pm
Great take on the state of things. It is very true when you are someone like Mo’nique you have to tread lightly. It’s shocking to a lot of people that she doesn’t have the I’m so happy to be here suh mentality. But she really has done her share of promotiin for the movie it is not like she went into hiding, she is just letting her husband, her kids and her job take precedence over oscar campaigning, novel idea. The bottom line is with her being a darkskinned big black woman she can’t be sassy she has to be contrite and homely, mammy-like other wise she is just another mad black woman. It is like that in real life as well, I know that I kind of have to play down my anger at my school and just make sure I try not to wear dark hoodies and tims so much it just sometimes what u have to do to get by. It is unfortunate, but Mo will still be good I say it is down to her or Julianne Moore
Will says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:17pm
Honestly, I kind of thing this is all kind of talk now. I can’t see Best Picture going anywhere but to Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker. Other than Best Actress which has a little room for shock, I think we already have our big 6 locked up.
DCIJB says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:22pm
“In a five best picture nominee year, it’s not even in the discussion.” Really? Let’s see what the gurus think: http://moviecitynews.com/awards/index_gurus.html
Gregoire says:
Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 12:23pm
The tenth slot is going to be such a shocking choice that most of us will be scratching our heads in wonderment.