I’ve said it too many times to be funny anymore –we are entering the fertile period, ovulation, if you will – the moment that ballots go out and contenders make their target is sum and total of an entire year of Oscar watching and campaigning. December 28th, Oscar ballots are mailed. January 23 they are due back.
Once those ballots go out, I’ve heard, most Academy members fill out their ballots right away. At least, they used to. Now, maybe they wait a bit, especially with almost a whole month to watch and ruminate. Since the date has shifted ever so slightly to allow a longer awards season, we might see some interesting twists and turns.
A few stragglers hang on to the last possible second, either because they didn’t have any time to see anything, or because the depressing slate of films made them not want to “go there” at all.¬† Or maybe they are all waiting to see Avatar in all of its glory. Gone with the Wind played on TCM last night, followed by The Making of Gone with the Wind, and if there is any filmmaker who resembles David O. Selznick it’s Jim Cameron. Cameron, for all of his new fangled technology, is very much like an old studio god.
It is said that the most powerful force in the Academy is the acting branch. Three times larger than the next largest branch in the Academy, the actors have a pretty big say when it comes to Best Picture, as that is the only category nominated by the entire voting body. Tomorrow morning at early O’clock (6am I think, Pacific), the SAG nominations will be revealed. The SAGs are always good for a surprise or two and they are not shy about nominating “little” movies over big ones.
If you wonder whether a film can make Best Pic, one sometimes looks to the SAG ensemble vote. David Carr (former Carpetbagger) said that once the SAG ensemble went to Slumdog, the awards race was over last year. And he was right; it was. It will be interesting to see what the SAG do with Avatar. Much of the press around the movie has focused on how these are “real actors,” not animation. The actors, though, are probably not going to go for that – to them, it’s like rewarding body doubles or stunt doubles. In my personal (essentially worthless) opinion, the actors ought to think about embracing this new technology as it ain’t going anywhere any time soon and once they accept it as a new form of acting the better their own careers will fare in this new arena. But that’s just me. Actors are very actory. My guess is that Avatar is out for ensemble.
The SAG Awards are the first major guild award — they are a gigantic union but they only use a small portion to vote on the nominations. This helps them stay more in line with Oscar somehow. The entire guild then votes on the winners. There are usually a few mismatches with Oscar here or there but nonetheless, like the Globes and the Critics Choice, they are televised and those speeches and appearances are like auditions for the Big Show in March.
Don’t let anyone fool you; unlike last year, this race is wide open. And it is wide open for several competing reasons. One is the opening up of ten slots for Best Picture. The other is the wide array of voices chiming in on the race, coupled with the access to this news. That makes it possible for any name to sneak in at this juncture. Names that fly under the radar right now could pop up at the SAGs for sure – like Maya Rudolph, for instance, or Emily Blunt, etc.
But let’s take a look at how we think it might go tomorrow.
Ensemble:
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Precious
Nine
Inglourious Basterds
What seems right up their alley is The Messenger and It’s Complicated and Julie & Julia — so if It’s Complicated gets in, what does it bump?¬† I’ll go with those five for now but I won’t be surprised if any of those other films are mentioned.
Best Actor:
George Clooney, Up the Air
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Also thinking: Viggo Mortensen for The Road or Ben Foster for The Messenger
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Also thinking: the wonderful Abbie Cornish for Bright Star
For Supporting Actor:
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christian McKay, Me & Orson Welles
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus
Also thinking: Alec Baldwin, It’s Complicated (Oscar will likely go for him)
Best Supporting Actress:
Mo’Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
And here are a few comparison charts for the last few years. To go all the way back (although I’m still cleaning up the page a bit, click here).
Screen Actors Guild
Comparison Charts
Won SAG | Won Oscar
| Actor | 2008 |
| Sean Penn, Milk | Sean Penn, Milk |
| Frank langella, Frost/Nixon | Frank langella, Frost/Nixon |
| Richard Jenkins, The Visitor | Richard Jenkins, The Visitor |
| Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler | Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler |
| Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button | Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button |
| Actress | |
| Meryl Streep Doubt | Meryl Streep, Doubt |
| Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road | Kate Winslet, The Reader |
| Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married | Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting marries |
| Melissa Leo, Frozen River | Melissa Leo, Frozen River |
| Angelina Jolie, Changeling | Angelina Jolie, Changeling |
| Supporting Actor | |
| Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder | Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder |
| Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight | Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight |
| Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire | Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road |
| Josh Brolin, Milk | Josh Brolin, Milk |
| Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt |
| Supporting Actress | |
| Kate Winslet, The Reader | Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler |
| Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona |
| Viola Davis, Doubt | Viola Davis, Doubt |
| Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button | Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button |
| Amy Adams, Doubt | Amy Adams, Doubt |
| Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
| Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
| Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
| Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
| Milk | Milk |
| Doubt | The Reader |
| Actor | 2007 |
| Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood | Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood |
| Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl | Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd |
| Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises | Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises |
| George Clooney, Michael Clayton | George Clooney, Michael Clayton |
| Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild | Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah |
| Actress | |
| Marion Cotillard, La Vie on Rose | Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose |
| Julie Christie, Away from Her | Julie Christie, Away from Her |
| Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth | Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth |
| Ellen Page, Juno | Ellen Page, Juno |
| Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart | Laura Linney, The Savages |
| Supporting Actor | |
| Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men | Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men |
| Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild | Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild |
| Casey Affleck, Jesse James | Casey Affleck, Jesse James |
| Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton | Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton |
| Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men | Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War |
| Supporting Actress | |
| Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There | Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There |
| Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone | Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone |
| Ruby Dee, American Gangster | Ruby Dee, American Gangster |
| Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton | Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton |
| Catherine Keener, Into the Wild | Saoirse Ronan, Atonement |
| Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
| No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
| 3:10 to Yuma | Atonement |
| Into the Wild | Michael Clayton |
| Hairspray | Juno |
| American Gangster | There Will Be Blood |
2006
| Actor | 2006 |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) | Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond) |
| Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) | Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson) |
| Peter O’Toole (Venus) | Peter O’Toole (Venus) |
| Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) | Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness) |
| Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) | Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland) |
| Actress | |
| Penelope Cruz (Volver) | Penelope Cruz (Volver) |
| Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) | Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal) |
| Helen Mirren (The Queen) | Helen Mirren (The Queen) |
| Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) | Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) |
| Kate Winslet (Little Children) | Kate Winslet (Little Children) |
| Supporting Actor | |
| Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) | Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine) |
| Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) | Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children) |
| Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) | Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond) |
| Eddie Murphy | Eddie Murphy |
| Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed) | Mark Wahlberg (The Departed) |
| Supporting Actress | |
| Adriana Barraza, Babel | Adriana Barraza, Babel |
| Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal | Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal |
| Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine | Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine |
| Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls | Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls |
| Rinko Kikuchi, Babel | Rinko Kikuchi, Babel |
| Best Picture – Ensemble Acting | |
| Babel | Babel |
| Bobby | Letters From Iwo Jima |
| The Departed | The Departed |
| Dreamgirls | Dreamgirls |
| Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
Comment Policy
Comments are welcome as long as they are not abusive. We do not moderate but we will delete and ban your IP. We really don't tolerate any bad behavior and we watch the comments closely. Moreover, you should think twice anyway before you say something nasty to anyone on any blog. While it might feel good for a couple of seconds it only reveals you as a coward, sorry to say. Please don't ruin it for everyone else.