I told David Poland I didn’t want to participate in the Gurus of Gold this week because he was doing percentages. My experience awards watching has taught me that even when something is a sure bet, there are large groups of people who have a different contender in mind. I know this by the pre-Oscar interviews. And anyway, it’s just the nature of human beings: we don’t all think alike. The one with the most average votes wins (unless we’re talking about Best Pic). That is why my percentages here were so close — it isn’t that I think Mo’Nique or Christoph Waltz are weak contenders at all; I don’t. It’s that the Oscar race is almost never about the one person (unless it’s someone like Heath Ledger last year). Anyway, I seem to be the only one of the Gurus of Gold who felt this way, as everyone else is doing the 90% thing. Except me. Of course. I’m so bad at math.
Keep in mind that we don’t even know the nominees yet. And the nominees could change everything. I kind of like Dave Karger’s 50/50 scenarios. It’s a safe and effective way of guessing. I wish I had thought of that. But, alas.
Meanwhile, Inglourious Basterds appears to have some real momentum here. Could it be this becomes a three-way race?