Karger’s Precursor Tally – Hurt Locker Leads
Dave Karger has worked it out, and posted the tally to EW:
6: The Hurt Locker (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Inglourious Basterds (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Precious (AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Up in the Air (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, PGA)
4: An Education (NBR, BFCA, SAG, PGA) ineligible for AFI
4: Up (NBR, AFI, BFCA, PGA) ineligible for GG Best Picture
3: Avatar (BFCA, GG, PGA)
3: Invictus (NBR, BFCA, PGA)
3: Nine (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3: A Serious Man (NBR, AFI, BFCA)
2: (500) Days of Summer (NBR, GG)
2: The Hangover (AFI, GG)
2: The Messenger (NBR, AFI)
2: Star Trek (NBR, PGA)
1: Coraline (AFI)
1: District 9 (PGA)
1: It’s Complicated (GG)
1: Julie & Julia (GG)
1: A Single Man (AFI)
1: Sugar (AFI)
It’s a minor note, but Up in the Air actually won the NBR – and it wasn’t a nominee. So, among those mentioned here, so far Up in the Air is the only winner of anything. I took it a step further and worked it out from last year – since Dave is doing it now, pre-DGA and pre-BAFTA, I figured I’d add those in well – however.
Two things I noticed. 1. The lineup that the Critics Choice had looked like a good representation of what ten Best Pic nominees might have looked like last year, give or take (I have put them in blue). Maybe Changeling would have been dumped. 2. BAFTA was the only precursor to match Oscar’s Best Pic five for five:
Slumdog Millionaire (10-NBR+, AFI, BFCA+, GG+, SAG+, PGA+, WGA+, DGA+, BAFTA+, Oscar+)
Benjamin Button (9-NBR,WGA, DGA, GG,SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Frost/Nixon (9-NBR,WGA, DGA, GG,SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Milk (8-NBR, WGA+, DGA, SAG, PGA, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
The Dark Knight (5-NBR,WGA, DGA, PGA, BFCA,)
The Reader (4-GG, BFCA, BAFTA, Oscar)
Doubt (3-WGA, SAG, BFCA)
The Wrestler (3-GG, WGA, BFCA)
Wall-E (2-NBR, BFCA)
Changeling (1-BFCA)
Gregoire says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 8:53am
The top 10 of this list do look like the preemptive top 10 Oscar nominees:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
An Education
Up
Avatar
Invictus
Nine
A Serious Man
However, with the fortunes of Nine plunging rapidly, maybe that makes room for number 11 to slip into the top 10 — i.e. (500) Days of Summer.
See how easily I keep Summer’s Oscar chances alive with every other post?!
Other Ryan says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 8:59am
Gregoire, I’m hoping there’s room for both 500 Days and District 9. I doubt it, but a boy can dream.
Antoinette says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:03am
It’s seemed fairly obvious that THL was out in front but I guess we needed Dave Karger to tell us it was okay to think so. I’m beginning to think Clooney has implanted chips into everyone’s heads that force people to follow him like mindless groupies.
Rafael says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:11am
Sasha, I have just watched The Lovely Bones and I don´t get why people said the movie was so bad. I think people got it all wrong. I hope people discover this film in the future and embrace it the way it deserves. I don´t think it is perfect, but it is so unique and special.
A.J says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:15am
NBR and AFI didn’t screen Avatar before they announced their awards…
Gregoire says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:43am
Other Ryan, if Oscar ignored Invictus and Nine and inserted 500 Days of Summer and District 9, I would be a very, very happy camper.
A.J says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:43am
As a side note I love the Star Trek online ads where it doesn’t even pretend it would have a shot in a year of five and proclaims it’s what the bigger best picture race is for. I also love the online Anvil! ads for Best Picture.
Kevin Klawitter says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:49am
I’ve been tallying the precursors, too:
http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000005/thread/153361998?d=153361998
Bob Burns says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 10:07am
AJ, I agree about the ST ad. I watched it a couple of times on transatlantic flights, thought it played better on repeat viewings, even on a tiny screen… very emotional.
I wonder if the Academy voters are going to feel their choices are narrowed down before they vote. seems like the larger field should give them more freedom, but precursors tend the other way.
Wish the DGA had gone to ten.
James (Cinemaniac86) says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 10:25am
Sasha, you forgot to blue Milk.
….
Heh heh…”I’m afraid I just blue myself.”…heh heh.
Craig says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 10:51am
Why the hell would anyone vote for Invictus? That movie is like, mediocrity at it’s finest.
unlikelyhood says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 10:59am
Rafael – Lovely Bones wasn’t terrible, but it was very What-Dreams-May-Come-like. Lotta touchy-feely, not a lotta make-us-care. Radical changes from the book didn’t help.
Gregoire and Other Ryan – I’m with you. It’s too much to ask for both 500 Days and District 9, but at this point there’s just enough possibility that it may disappoint a bit if one of them doesn’t happen.
Chris Price says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 11:31am
***SPOILER ALERT***
unlikelyhood,
I agree with you on the Lovely Bones. Saw it last night finally. There’s plenty to connect with in the movie, particularly the tense sequence when the sister breaks into Harvey’s house. But unfortunately the afterlife sequences all felt disjointed and sloppy. Jackson seemed to take the concept of “show, don’t tell” about 10 notches overboard to the point where I think only he knows what the hell was going on most of the time in the “in-between”. And when the quirky Asian girl shows up to basically be Cuba Gooding in “What Dreams May Come” the film almost completely lost me. Sure, the real reason why the girl was there was tragic and it turned out to be relevant to the story (she’s another one of Harvey’s victims), but you don’t know that when she shows up. At first she’s just another cuddly tour guide in heaven. Also when all the young victims show up to greet Suzie at the end it had no impact on me whatsoever and it was confusing as to why it impacted Suzie. NONE of these girls had any connection to her at all and you had never met them in the movie up to that point (save for a few creepy shots of their anonymous corpses). So when they have what is essentially staged as a reunion it rings false and hollow. Tucci was VERY powerful and his performance will haunt me, Ronan did a great job as usual and I was glad to see Mark Wahlberg back in fighting shape as an actor here after a string of terrible choices. But what ultimately weighed the movie down was, I’m sad to say, the choices of the director whom I admire very much. This film needed a lighter, less CG-oriented touch. Should’ve put a cap on the Robin Williams meter as well because this film was in the red several times.
Free says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 11:54am
I have the same chart, except I don’t think AFI is all that important.
Ricky says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 12:48pm
Don’t forget that The Dark Knight had a DGA nomination so that makes 5
Herman says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 5:30pm
A nice reminder of the Slumdog domination last year.
Ezekiel says:
Wednesday, January 6, 2010 at 9:38pm
Okay first off A.J i too LOVE the star trek side bars where they make it very obvious they are going for spot6-10. They never expect to win they just want an invitation to the party.
Okay and Chris Price whilst I agree with some of your comments regarding TLB (show, don’t tell) the connection that Suzie has to those girls is they were all killed by the same man. What more could any people have in common? They all left the Earth in horrible, violent circumstances. Just thought i would throw that out there considering that was one of the few parts of the film that i could really connect with and understand.
But yeah as for that film…overall when i read the book i thought the story was mainly about the lovely bones that grew around her death, you know the way the people closest to her moved on with their lives and how the smallest flower of good can come from the biggest tragedy you could imagine. I think Jackson missed the boat on that somewhat and made what could have been a masterpiece into simply a good movie.
GO WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE!!!!!!