Since Oscar changed its date back in the early 2000s, it threw an already established awards pattern out of whack. I often think of the awards race like migrating herds. If the climate changes, it throws off their rhythm and they must readjust. A great readjustment took place before, and now it’s happening again. Usually, the Sundance Film Fest happens right around the same time of the Oscar nominations.
Usually the Oscar nominations take place before the SAG Awards (even if by just a little bit) just enough so that it would usually turn out that the Oscar nominee had the best shot of winning the SAG by default.
With ballots already turned in by the time of the SAG telecast, we can’t know if any of the SAG winners will be nominated for certain or not. More often than not, the SAG winners are in line to win the Oscar automatically.
But how will it turn out this year? As far as actors go, there is only one big show left before the Oscars — the BAFTAs, which take place right in the fertile season of Oscar voting, February 21. Final polls close on March 2.¬†¬† That puts the BAFTAs arguably in the best possible position in the precursor run. No one plans these thing this way, but this is how it turned out this year.
The Oscars used to be held in late March — so this date change isn’t quite that dramatic, but one can see the subtle ways the date change has shifted this race, the SAG awards being held after Oscar ballots had already been turned in, for instance.
But, at this point, there is no reason to assume that all four of these actors will then go on to win the Oscar. Throwing a slight kink in the works is the small fact that Sandra Bullock was not nominated for the BAFTA because The Blind Side was not eligible for those awards. That means that another actress (maybe Meryl Streep, maybe Carey Mulligan) could be put in her place on Oscar ballots, even with the SAG vote so influential.  Still, at this point, we should put our money on Bullock.
But let’s take a look at the history of the actor race up to the BAFTAs. Here are winners charts for the Globes/SAG/Oscar. Generally, winning both the Globe and the SAG results in winning the Oscar, but not always. The Globes and the Critics Choice matched the acting categories 100% this year so you can figure them into the mix as well.
Usually, with men, winning both the Globe and the SAG has almost always resulted in an Oscar win. In fact, the only actor to do it was Denzel Washington for Training Day. Other forces were at work with that vote. Russell Crowe had been caught behaving badly. He had already won a Lead Actor Oscar for Gladiator and would have won for A Beautiful Mind if there hadn’t been that poetry debacle at the BAFTAs. Or something. Denzel Washington, by contrast, had never won a Lead Oscar before, had a lot of supporters within the industry supporting his win, and he was caught up in the excitement that Halle Berry would become the first black actress to ever win in the lead category.
Globes – SAG – Oscar
2009
| Jeff Bridges/Robert Downey, Jr. |
Jeff Bridges |
|
| Sandra Bullock/Meryl Streep |
Sandra Bullock |
|
| Mo’Nique |
Mo’Nique |
|
| Christoph Waltz |
Christoph Waltz |
|
2008
| Mickey Rourke/Colin Farrell |
Sean Penn |
Sean Penn |
| Kate Winslet/Sally Hawkins |
Meryl Streep |
Kate Winslet |
| Kate Winslet |
Kate Winslet |
Penelope Cruz |
| Heath Ledger |
Heath Ledger |
Heath Ledger |
2007
| Daniel Day Lewis |
Daniel Day Lewis |
Daniel Day Lewis |
| Julie Christie/Marion Cotillard |
Julie Christie |
Marion Cotillard |
| Javier Bardem |
Javier Bardem |
Javier Bardem |
| Cate Blanchett |
Ruby Dee |
Tilda Swinton |
2006
| Forest Whitaker |
Forest Whitaker |
Forest Whitaker |
| Helen Mirren |
Helen Mirren |
Helen Mirren |
| Jennifer Hudson |
Jennifer Hudson |
Jennifer Hudson |
| Eddie Murphy |
Eddie Murphy |
Alan Arkin |
| Babel/Dreamgirls |
Little Miss Sunshine |
The Departed |
2005
| Philip Seymour Hoffman/Joaquin Phoenix |
Philip Seymour Hoffman |
Philip Seymour Hoffman |
| Reese Witherspoon/Felicity Huffman |
Reese Witherspoon |
Reese Witherspoon |
| Rachel Weisz |
Rachel Weisz |
Rachel Weisz |
| George Clooney |
Paul Giamatti |
George Clooney |
| Brokeback/Walk the Line |
Crash |
Crash |
2004
| Leonardo DiCap/Jamie Foxx |
Jamie Foxx |
Jamie Fox |
| Hilary Swank |
Hilary Swank |
Hilary Swank |
| Natalie Portman |
Cate Blanchett |
Cate Blanchett |
| Clive Owen |
Morgan Freeman |
Morgan Freeman |
| Aviator/Sideways |
Sideways |
MDB |
2003
| Sean Penn |
Johnny Depp |
Sean Penn |
| Charlize Theron |
Charlize Theron |
Charlize Theron |
| Renee Zellweger |
Renee Zellweger |
Renee Zellweger |
| Tim Robbins |
Tim Robbins |
Tim Robbins |
| ROTK |
ROTK |
ROTK |
2002
| Jack Nicholson |
Daniel Day Lewis |
Adrien Brody |
| Nicole Kidman/Zellweger |
Renee Zellweger |
Nicole Kidman |
| Meryl Streep |
Catherine Zeta-Jones |
Catherine Zeta-Jones |
| Chris Cooper |
Chris Walken |
Chris Cooper |
| The Hours/Chicago |
Chicago |
Chicago |
2001
| Russell Crowe |
Russell Crowe |
Denzel Washington |
| Sissy Spacek |
Halle Berry |
Halle Berry |
| Jennifer Connelly |
Helen Mirren |
Jennifer Connelly |
| Jim Broadbent |
Ian McKellen |
Jim Broadbent |
| A Beautiful Mind (Moulin Rouge) |
Gosford Park (ensemble) |
A Beautiful Mind |
2000
| Tom Hanks |
Benicio Del Toro |
Russell Crowe |
| Julia Roberts |
Julia Roberts |
Julia Roberts |
| Kate Hudson |
Judi Dench |
Marcia Gay Harden |
| Benicio Del Toro |
Albert Finney |
Benicio Del Toro |
| Gladiator (Almost Famous) |
Traffic |
Gladiator |
1999
| Denzel Washington |
Kevin Spacey |
Kevin Spacey |
| Hilary Swank |
Annette Bening |
Hilary Swank |
| Angelina Jolie |
Angelina Jolie |
Angelina Jolie |
| Tom Cruise |
Michael Caine |
Michael Caine |
| American Beauty |
American Beauty |
American Beauty |
1998
| Jim Carrey (Michael Caine) |
Roberto Benigni |
Roberto Benigni |
| Gwyneth Paltrow (Cate Blanchett) |
Gwyneth Paltrow |
Gwyneth Paltrow |
| Lynn Redgrave |
Kathy Bates |
Judi Dench |
| Ed Harris |
Robert Duvall |
James Coburn |
| Shakespeare in Love |
Shakespeare in Love |
Shakespeare in Love |
1997
| Jack Nicholson (Peter Fonda) |
Jack Nicholson |
Jack Nicholson |
| Helen Hunt (Judi Dench) |
Helen Hunt |
Helen Hunt |
| Kim Basinger |
Kim Basinger (and Gloria Stewart) |
Kim Basinger |
| Burt Reynolds |
Robin Williams |
Robin Williams |
| Titanic |
The Full Monty |
Titanic |
1996
| Geoffrey Rush (Tom Cruise) |
Geoffrey Rush |
Geoffrey Rush |
| Brenda Blethyn (Madonna) |
Frances McDormand |
Frances McDormand |
| Lauren Bacall |
Lauren Bacall |
Juliette Binoche |
| Ed Norton |
Cuba Gooding, Jr. |
Cuba Gooding, Jr. |
| The English Patient (Evita) |
The Birdcage |
The English Patient |
1995
| Nicolas Cage (John Travolta) |
Nicolas Cage |
Nicolas Cage |
| Sharon Stone (Nicole Kidman) |
Susan Sarandon |
Susan Sarandon |
| Mira Sorvino |
Kate Winslet |
Mira Sorvino |
| Brad Pitt |
Ed Harris |
Kevin Spacey |
| Sense & Sensibility (Babe) |
Apollo 13 |
Braveheart |
1994
| Tom Hanks (Hugh Grant) |
Tom Hanks |
Tom Hanks |
| Jessica Lange (Jamie Lee Curtis) |
Jodie Foster |
Jessica Lange |
| Dianne Wiest |
Diane Wiest |
Dianne Wiest |
| Martin Landau |
Ed Harris |
Martin Landau |
| Forrest Gump |
|
Forrest Gump |
1993
Globes —> Oscar only
| Tom Hanks |
Tom Hanks |
| Holly Hunter |
Holly Hunter |
| Winona Ryder |
Anna Paquin |
| Tommy Lee Jones |
Tommy Lee Jones |
| Schindler’s List |
Schindler’s List |
1992
| Al Pacino |
Al Pacino |
| Emma Thompson |
Emma Thompson |
| Joan Plowright |
Marisa Tomei |
| Gene Hackman |
Gene Hackman |
| Scent of a Woman |
Unforgiven |
1991
| Nick Nolte |
Anthony Hopkins |
| Jodie Foster |
Jodie Foster |
| Mercedes Ruehl |
Mercedes Ruehl |
| Jack Palance |
Jack Palance |
| Bugsy |
Silence of the Lambs |
1990
| Jeremy Irons |
Jeremy Irons |
| Kathy Bates |
Kathy Bates |
| Whoopi Goldberg |
Whoopi Goldberg |
| Bruce Davidson |
Joe Pesci |
| Dances with Wolves |
Dances with Wolves |
1989
| Tom Cruise |
Daniel Day Lewis |
| Jessica Tandy m/c |
Jessica Tandy |
| Julia Roberts |
Brenda Fricker |
| Denzel Washington |
Denzel Washington |
| Born 4th July – Driving Miss Daisy m/c |
Driving Miss Daisy |
1988
| Tom Cruise |
Dustin Hoffman |
| Jodie Foster/Shirley MacLaine/Sigourney Weaver |
Jodie Foster |
| Sigourney Weaver |
Geena Davis |
| Martin Landau |
Kevin Kline |
| Rain Man |
Rain Man |
1987
| Michael Douglas |
Michael Douglas |
| Cher (comedy) |
Cher |
| Olympia Dukakis |
Olympia Dukakis |
| Sean Connery |
Sean Connery |
| The Last Emperor |
The Last Emperor |
1986
| Bob Hoskins |
Paul Nemwan |
| Marlee Matlin/Sissy Spacek (comedy) |
Marlee Matlin |
| Maggie Smith |
Dianne Wiest |
| Bob Hoskins |
Michael Caine |
| Platoon |
Platoon |
1985
| Jon Voight (Jack Nicholson) |
William Hurt |
| Whoopi Goldberg (Kathleen Turner) |
Geraldine Page |
| Meg Tilly |
Anjelica Huston |
| Klaus Maria Brandauer |
Don Amiche |
| Out of Africa (Prizzi’s Honor) |
Out of Africa |
1984
| F. Murray Abraham |
F. Murray Abraham |
| Sally Field |
Sally Field |
| Peggy Ashcroft |
Peggy Ashcroft |
| Haing S. Ngor |
Haing S. Ngor |
| Amadeus |
Amadeus |
1983
| Tom Courtenay /Robert Duvall (tie) (Michael Caine) |
Robert Duvall |
| Shirley MacLaine |
Shirley MacLaine |
| Cher |
Linda Hunt |
| Jack Nicholson |
Jack Nicholson |
| Terms of Endearment/Yentyl |
Terms of Endearment/Yentyl |
1982
| Ben Kingsley (Dustin Hoffman) |
Ben Kingsley |
| Meryl Streep |
Meryl Streep |
| Jessica Lange |
Jessica Lange |
| Louis Gossett |
Louis Gossett |
| E.T./Tootsie |
Gandhi |
1981
| Henry Fonda |
Henry Fonda |
| Meryl Streep |
Katharine Hepburn |
| Joan Hackett |
Maureen Stapleton |
| John Gielgud |
John Gielgud |
| On Golden Pond |
Chariots of Fire |
1980
| Robert De Niro |
Robert De Niro |
| Mary Tyler Moore (Sissy Spacek) |
Sissy Spacek |
| Mary Steenburgen |
Mary Steenburgen |
| Timothy Hutton |
Timothy Hutton |
| Ordinary People |
Ordinary People |
1979
| Dustin Hoffman (Peter Sellers) |
Dustin Hoffman |
| Sally Field (Bette Midler) |
Sally Field |
| Meryl Streep |
Meryl Streep |
| Melvin Douglas/Robert Duvall (tie) |
Melvin Douglas |
| Kramer vs. Kramer (Breaking Away) |
Kramer Vs. Kramer |
1978
| Jon Voight (Warren Beatty) |
Jon Voight |
| Jane Fonda (Ellen Burstyn/Maggie Smith tie) |
Jane Fonda |
| Dyan Cannon |
Maggie Smith |
| John Hurt |
Christopher Walken |
| Midnight Express (Heaven Can Wait) |
The Deer Hunter |
1977
| Richard Burton (Richard Dreyfuss) |
Richard Dreyfuss |
| Jane Fonda (Diane Keaton/Marsha Mason) |
Diane Keaton |
| Vanessa Redgrave |
Vanessa Redgrave |
| Peter Firth |
Jason Robards |
| The Turning Point (Goodbye Girl) |
Annie Hall |
1976
| Peter Finch (Kris Kristofferson) |
Peter Finch |
| Faye Dunaway (Barbra Streisand) |
Faye Dunaway |
| Katherine Ross |
Beatrice Straight |
| Lawrence Olivier |
Jason Robards |
| Rocky (A Star is Born) |
Rocky |
1975
| Jack Nicholson |
Jack Nicholson |
| Louise Fletcher |
Louise Fletcher |
| Brenda Vacarro |
Lee Grant |
| Richard Benjamin |
George Burns |
| One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest |
One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest |
1974
| James Caan (Art Carney) |
Art Carney |
| Gena Rowlands |
Ellen Burstyn |
| Karen Black |
Ingrid Bergman |
| Fred Astaire |
Robert De Niro |
| Chinatown |
Godfather II |
1973
| Al Pacino (George Segal) |
Jack Lemmon |
| Marsha Mason (Glenda Jackson) |
Glenda Jackson |
| Linda Blair |
Tatum O’Neal |
| John Houseman |
John Houseman |
| The Exorcist |
The Sting |
1972
| Marlon Brando |
Marlon Brando |
| Liv Ullman (Liza Minnelli) |
Liza Minnelli |
| Shelly Winters |
Eileen Heckart |
| Joel Grey |
Joel Grey |
| The Godfather (Cabaret) |
The Godfather |
1971
| Gene Hackman |
Gene Hackman |
| Jane Fonda |
Jane Fonda |
| Ann-Margret |
Cloris Leachman |
| Ben Johnson |
Ben Johnson |
| The French Connection |
French Connection |
1970
| George C. Scott |
George C. Scott |
| Ali MacGraw |
Glenda Jackson |
| Karen Black/Maureen Stapleton (tie) |
Helen Hayes |
| John Mills |
John Mills |
| Love Story |
Patton |
|
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