The Actors – Mostly Locked Redux
The four acting categories feel locked for various reasons. If a weakness is to be found it’s not with the contenders themselves, but with bored Oscar pundits who have nothing to do for the next few weeks except look for holes where there aren’t any. Even still, for all of that, I have seen upsets. When Adrien Brody won, or Halle Berry AND Denzel Washington, or Marion Cotillard – it was the “lock” that was misleading. That makes us wonder, are all four really locked locked? Or do we fool ourselves into thinking they are based on the awards that have gone down thus far? I have watched Oscar through both kinds of seasons – the ones where there are upsets, and the ones where the acting categories were matched 4/4 every time. So what kind of year will this be?
There are two forces at work, as I keep repeating. The first is that there are now ten best picture nominees and not five. The second is that they stretched out the date more. Whether or not either of these have an impact will be answered in about one month from now. What I do know is that when I looked back at the ten year span when Oscar did have ten Best Picture contenders, the Best Actor winner was from one of the ten films. Not a single actor was in the film that won, but they all had their film nominated. That is a pattern that may or may hold this year.
But let’s take a look at the acting categories and see if we can figure out where we are.
Best Actor — Jeff Bridges is the Frontrunner
Crazy Heart was a film that had a hard time finding a distributor out of Toronto. It was seen by a few bloggers and critics who promptly announced that Best Actor was Jeff Bridges’ to lose. It was loudly declared from all corners of the web that at last Jeff Bridges had given his finest work to date. Bridges is an actor who has been kicking around Hollywood for decades. The son of Lloyd Bridges and the brother of Beau Bridges, Jeff Bridges was always sort of a dreamboat matinee idol before he started proving himself a serious actor. Once he did make the crossover, it felt like the Academy rarely took notice. It was like he was suffering from the same things actors like Warren Beatty and Robert Redford suffered from: they were too good looking to win. Bridges just kept on keeping on, turning in one reliable performance after another. He became a cult icon with The Big Lebowski (still my own personal favorite performance of his), but he was brilliant in The Contender, Fearless, Starman, The Fisher King, the Fabulous Baker Boys, to name a few. He’s also been in many, many turkeys. Some of the worst films ever made have starred Jeff Bridges. It is crazy that this is only his second lead actor Oscar – all of the other nominations, a total of five, have been supporting. Two leads, three supporting.
In Crazy Heart, Bridges gives yet another subtle performance, but the difference with this character is that Bridges almost completely disappears. He has a different voice, a different walk – he even sings. There is a hardness to him that we’ve never seen. And he breaks down more intensely than he ever has. So far, so good, right? The only tiny problem seems to be that his film is not nominated for Best Picture. Given everything else, that probably seems like nothing. But I’ll tell you this. If there was an Adrien Brody lurking in the wood pile, stealing Jeff Bridges’ thunder would not be hard. It isn’t that Bridges isn’t great, it’s just that he’s a subtle actor – he’s not a scenery chewer. And, as we’ve seen year after year after year, the scenery chewers prevail.
Jeremy Renner –I have three favorite male performances this year – Viggo Mortensen, Jeremy Renner and Colin Firth. Only two of those managed to get nominations. Renner is so good in The Hurt Locker he is impossible to ignore. Every time he’s on screen he is like a magnetic presence. His performance is a lot more difficult than it looks. All three of the men in the film have to expend a good deal of energy keeping up a facade of toughness. We have the chance to see just how good they are when the facade is removed, usually when they are all alone. Renner has so many great scenes but the one that stands out to me is the sequence where he has to remove the body bomb of a kid he thinks he knows. There are so many things going on at once, and all of it happening between us, the viewers, and Renner’s character; he can’t ever let anyone else know what is going on with him. He can’t really win, probably, unless there is so much good will directed at the film that it sweeps – in which case, like Silence of the Lambs or other films that took hold completely, The Hurt Locker will win Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Editing, Score. I believe strongly that Renner is the only one who could upset Bridges.
George Clooney has given his best performance to date with his Ryan Bingham in Up in the Air. It is moving, charming, sad — and Clooney is more emotionally exposed than he ever has been before. If Up in the Air were currently the Best Picture frontrunner, this would be Clooney’s to take, as it felt like it was earlier in the year. Clooney’s biggest problem is that he’s already won an Oscar. When you’re up against someone who has never won one, like Bridges, that fact comes into play. Not only has Clooney won already, but it seems like Clooney is the new Jack. He’s always there now. He doesn’t have to do much at all to get a film he’s involved in, if it’s serious enough, into the Oscar race. It doesn’t feel like he has enough votes – and he would have won the Globe if he was going to win anywhere, and since he didn’t that immediately changed our perceptions of how the Best Actor race was going to go down – thus bringing true the blogger’s prophecy that “Jeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Crazy Heart.”
Colin Firth, A Single Man — it’s heartbreaking to see such a great performance not get its proper due. Firth easily gives his own best performance to date — complex, conflicted – so many things going on at once with him. The film is all about the grief he is experiencing that he must do completely on his own, living at a time when it wasn’t socially acceptable to mourn one’s lover. I was so moved by his performance I had to immediately watch the film over again to see just how intricately it was done. It is a day-in-the-life but it is also a decision about his own mortality. Firth is always good, and seems to fly under the radar. The great thing about A Single Man is that he’s finally been given the opportunity to show what he really is capable of as an actor. It is remarkable.
Morgan Freeman is lovely in Invictus, and is really one of the main reasons, along with Matt Damon, that the film is as good at it is. It doesn’t have the right kind of buzz right now and a lot of that, I think, has to do with The Blind Side also being a sports movie and kind of stealing its place in the race. Also, I feel like much of what drove Invictus was the desire for good will between conflicting political parties, and/or black versus white – and our country is not in the right place to sell that message – our President is under siege from both sides. Half of a year ago, Invictus would have been an easier sell. Mostly, though, there was a feeling of “MEH” when it came down to the wire. I feel like the movie is a lot better than the Oscar race has deemed it to be. That is not surprising; it happens every year.
Best Actress – Sandra Bullock for the win.
Bullock was so well liked in The Blind Side that she managed to get that film a Best Pic nomination. In short, nothing and no one can derail her. She has all of the momentum, she’s the $200 million woman and she is well liked by everyone across the board – actors she’s worked with, crew she’s worked with, fans, etc. Bullock will win for many reasons, the least of which is her performance in the film.
Bullock burst onto the scene kind of a Julie Lite. She was considered someone whose career was going to follow in Roberts’ footsteps. But at some point, Julia stopped doing the big blockbusters and Sandra kept on doing them, fitting in an art movie every once in a while. But Bullock is usually more in her element with comedy than she is with drama. She usually plays a version of herself. In Crash she didn’t. She played a horrible bitch and the critics took notice. It hasn’t been until The Blind Side, though, that she went full Erin Brockovich. The hair, the clothes, the accent, the no-nonsense straight-talking tough babe. It worked for Julia and it will probably work for Sandra, given that the Blind Side managed to slide into the top ten on Bullock’s performance, and on sentiment alone. According to the NY Times, the Blind Side team specifically avoided what they called the “tastemakers” and tried to go straight to the people and to the Academy voters (who really are people too, don’t forget). That means, they didn’t need anyone’s approval and the reviews weren’t going to matter a lick. People liked the film and that would be that. It was a true story, one that appeared on ABC news and in newspapers everywhere. The Blind Side is still so popular, in fact, that it’s edging up to $300 million. There are things about it not to like, of course, particularly for those who have discerning tastes. But even those with discerning tastes have been known to say that they fell for the movie.
Maybe The Blind Side can’t win (no director, screenwriter, editing nod) for Picture but it can and probably will win for Actress.
The other thing about Bullock, as we’ve said many times before, is that she has worked with almost the entire SAG membership at one point another, which means she’s probably worked with many of those in the Academy as well. People like her. She is hard-working and unpretentious. She gives to charity. She lives out in Austin with her motorcycle husband. Her mother died recently. No one had ever said a bad word about the girl. This win isn’t going to be about “Sandra Bullock is such a good actress.” It’s going to be about how much they like her the actress, and how much admiration they have for the real-life character.
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia – Streep started out way ahead of the game. Like Sissy Spacek and Julie Christie (both also previous Oscar winners who lost to first-timers), Streep has won many of the critics’ awards. She and Sandra have both won the Globes and tied the Critics Choice. But when it came time for the SAG Sandra won there. Meryl Streep had won the previous year and no actor has ever managed to win the SAG twice in a row (in the leading categories). It was a no-brainer that Bullock would win the SAG. But winning that gave Bullock the momentum.
Streep’s Julia is a revelation. It is so good, in fact, that it is almost worth sitting through that movie again. But there is one glaring problem. Amy Adams is so unbearable as Julie that the only possible way to get through the film at all is to skip forwards to the Julia parts. Honestly, if it had just been a movie about Julia Child, Streep would probably be more in line to actually win. As it is, she is in the movie only half, at best. Nicole Kidman won for The Hours for a smaller part, but Kidman had never won before and she really really REALLY wanted that Oscar. Streep doesn’t seem to care if she wins another one. She already holds the record for the most nominations and seems to be enjoying her very successful career on its own.
Oscar wins are often about one-offs. Actors get in there, win their Oscar, and are never heard from again. Those who are reliable enough that they continually get nominated again and again don’t seem to have the same urgency to pull off multiple wins these days. In the past, that wasn’t the case. There is no doubt in my mind that Meryl Streep gave the best female performance this year as Julia Child. But that isn’t really saying much because Streep almost always gives the best performance of any actress any year she’s in the race: she is a master of the craft. A genius like no other. What she doesn’t have this year, nor any year in recent memory, is momentum.
Gabby Sidibe – Precious. If we’re talking upsets, though, there is one actress who can possibly upset the Sandra Bullock train and it’s not Meryl Streep – it’s Gabby Sidibe. She is much more like the type of actress who can come from nowhere and win. The studio has done everything right with Gabby. She has been on all of the talk shows, speaking from the hear when she’s had the opportunity, and basically acting like a seasoned pro through the whole thing. She has been everywhere.
Despite the many decades it took for a black (or half-black) Best Actress to win, no other actress of color has won in the leading category. Halle Berry probably thought she was making history, and she was in a way. But since then? White, white, white, white, white. What’s interesting about Bullock versus Sidibe is that both films sort of deal with race. They both deal with forgotten and/or abused black kids in the ghetto. Two different stories, two different approaches. Two very different actresses. If there is any sort of resentment at all for the way “whitey” came to the rescue, it could be played out with a Gabby win. Also, Gabby’s film has more nominations than the Blind Side. Do we really think that Precious is going to walk away with only one Oscar for Mo’Nique and not win anywhere else?
Carey Mulligan – An Education. There is a slight chance that Carey Mulligan could pull off an upset. She is a darling girl in the film, the “it” girl, really. At some point, though, Sony pulled back the campaign for her, which I personally felt was the right move. Mulligan seemed too sensitive and “real” for the punishing awards season ahead of her. She seems genuinely frightened by all of the flashbulbs and the dumb questions being thrown at her. She is a class act, this girl. And bravo to her for maintaining her dignity throughout. She started out the year as the frontrunner. But the Oscar race is dirty business. All of that said, there could be a shocker when that envelope is read and it’s Carey Mulligan whose name is called. Sorry to be crass here, folks, but someone has got to say it so it might as well be me. Forgive me, Ms. Mulligan and all involved in your life and career, but the simple fact of the matter is that Mulligan is the one fine piece of tail Academy members are most going to want to fuck. It’s crude and horrible, but it is a reality that actresses are often offered up at the Oscars as the freshest cut of meat. These men like them young and hot. They just do. And none of these five actresses have the hot factor except Mulligan.
Think about it – it’s thousand of voters, most of whom are straight, white men. It isn’t a leap to think they would vote for the one they’d most like to bone. It isn’t always the case, of course, but just saying. In case it happens, you heard it here first.
Helen Mirren – The Last Station. No shot. She’s already won, the film has not so great reviews — the truth is, as much as I love the woman, another actress should have had this spot, like Abbie Cornish, for instance, or Tilda Swinton.
Supporting actor and Actress – Mo’Nique and Christoph Waltz feel completely locked to me. Both star in popular best pictures with multiple nominations, including editing. Mo’Nique has no competition. People keep saying Maggie Gyllenhaal but I’d have to disagree with that, based on the lack of overall nominations for Crazy Heart, and the lightness of her performance. Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga are going to cancel themselves out, which is what can often happen if there are two nominees from the same film in the supporting category — not always — but sometimes. Penelope Cruz just won, so she it out of the picture. Mo’Nique has sealed the deal of her continual wins her magnificent acceptance speeches. She is the kind of person voters want to see take the stage. Supporting actress tends to go to a performance that is practically a lead. Sometimes, this category can offer the biggest shockers of the night. Usually, though, when there is an upset in this category it is because the actress represents the film (Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton) or when their performance was really a lead, and therefore way too stunning to ignore (Marcia Gay Harden). Mo’Nique’s is the most talked about performance of the year, so she comes into the race with the heft of having won so many critics awards, and the Globe and the Critics Choice, and the SAG — but she also comes into the race the most deserving. That is an undeniable combination.
The silly piffle that hit some of the websites about Mo’Nique snubbing the press, and most notoriously, the New York Film Critics who were kind enough to award her, seems to have had zero impact on her wins so far. She has been nothing but gracious at the podium and has been sincere and humble in her speeches.
Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds - when I think about why I loved Inglourious Basterds, one of the true masterpieces of 2009, and the most unique of all of the Best Picture nominees, it is to do with Tarantino’s voracious directing, and Christoph Waltz’ performance. Waltz is mesmerizing as Hans Landa. He describes who and what he is in the opening scene. He is able to hunt the Jews because he can think like a Jew. He plays with his victims, using his Nazi uniform to completely obliterate their nerve. He knows that, just by wearing that uniform, anyone standing near him might as well be standing next to a hand grenade. So he’s nice and he’s gracious to his host, with the business of the milk and the pipe – but then he threatens the farmer before ordering the killing of all of the Jews hiding under the house. This same kind of charm is used every time he has someone in his grip. The only problem with Waltz is that he’s not known by the majority of Hollywood insiders. We know that they like to reward their own much of the time and aren’t friendly to outsiders. But Inglourious Basterds’ 8 nominations ensure a Waltz victory more than anything else; they loved that movie across the board.
Stanley Tucci – in The Lovely Bones - Stanley Tucci benefits from having two performances this year that were both magnificent. As Julia Child’s husband in Julie & Julia, and as the freaky serial killer in The Lovely Bones. Tucci is unrecognizable and horrid in The Lovely Bones and if the Academy had loved that movie even just a little bit, Tucci would be the frontrunner here. When good guys go bad it usually ends up with an Oscar win, and if he did manage to upset Waltz, it would be a well deserved win. Tucci is another one who is almost in the overdue category.
Woody Harrelson in The Messenger - Woody is another who could potentially upset the apple cart. There are two reasons for this – the first is that he really has more of a lead performance than a supporting one (actually, one could say the same thing about Waltz and Tucci). The other is that Harrelson is incredibly well liked by the industry at large. He has a lot of friends. The Messenger is one of those films that keeps surprising. A lot of people loved it and I would bet that it almost made Best Picture. Matt Damon is great in Invictus and there was a time when it seemed like this was going to be Damon’s year, what with The Informant! and Invictus. If Invictus had a Best Pic nod, Damon would be more of a threat.
Christopher Plummer in The Last Station could potentially turn up as the surprise winner on his veteran status alone. So many great performances, such a distinguished career. But, think about this way. They didn’t give their award to Peter O’Toole, Lauren Bacall and Hal Holbrook when they came down the pike – what makes anyone so sure they would do the same for Plummer? One never knows, of course.
Kelly says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:30am
Really? Sandra Bullock a lock? I mean, ok I guess, but I even think it’s crazy to count Meryl out as well… she’s so overdue that she’s looped back into the “never won one” category.
Silencio says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:31am
You know, it could be Sidibe actually. It seems that goodwill for Precious is subtly reappearing lately, now that it isn’t the frontrunner folks were branding it months ago. It could very well steal a big win or two (besides Mo’Nique, who isn’t a ‘steal’ at all).
David says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:34am
Just a thought that was prompted by your stating voters could not like the fact that he’s playing a Nazi:
Have you noticed that Waltz would make the third straight year that the Supporting Actor went to a villain?
2007: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2008: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
2009: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
JTag says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:35am
Sasha, although Sandra is pretty much a lock, I think you are absolutely right about Gabby being the upset person, not Meryl (though Meryl wouldn’t really be called an upset). DId you see Carl Reiner’s comment in the WSJ’s Bigelow/Cameron story:
As for Reiner, however, he’s not rooting for either party. “I didn’t even know they were married until I went backstage after the show,” he said. “But neither film really moved me. I always go for pictures that have to do with the human spirit, and while ‘The Hurt Locker’ is an amazing film, my taste goes to pictures that are more about the human condition, like Sandra Bullock’s movie, ‘The Blind Side,’ or ‘Precious.’
Does anyone know what the line on Juliette Binoche was when she upset Lauren Bacall? I remember hearing the gasp in the audience when her name was called.
m1 says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:36am
I think that Streep will win best actress. Think about it:
Sandra Bullock’s blond wig will get tangled in her chair.
Helen Mirren will be too busy texting Christopher Plummer.
Gabourey Sidibe will be on the verge of a teary breakdown.
And Carey Mulligan would probably faint at the calling of her name.
It’s a simple formula, people!
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:37am
As for Reiner, however, he’s not rooting for either party. “I didn’t even know they were married until I went backstage after the show,” he said. “But neither film really moved me. I always go for pictures that have to do with the human spirit, and while ‘The Hurt Locker’ is an amazing film, my taste goes to pictures that are more about the human condition, like Sandra Bullock’s movie, ‘The Blind Side,’ or ‘Precious.’
That’s really interesting. I do feel some sort of Precious upset somewhere – I just can’t figure out where and it’s possible it could happen in Actress, maybe Picture. No one saw it coming, perhaps, but the editing nom is key. Then again, there is the pesky actors branch.
Eric says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:38am
“It’s funny because all of the acting frontrunners are in best pic nominated films”
Crazy Heart wasn’t nominated…
maurier says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:39am
Nice analysis, I totally agree – if any actress prevents Bullock from winning Oscar, it’ll be Gabourey Sidibe. And what a wonderful shock that would be!
Jonas says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:46am
If there is anyone who can make an upset its George Clooney, simply because he is George Clooney. The amount of friends he has should not be underrated. I still think that Jeff Bridges is going to win, but Clooney is his closest rival.
adrian2nano says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:47am
Get over it people. SANDRA FOR THE WIN! (sorry Meryl, I love you but you will win one next time around because you deserve it not because you’re overdue)
chief says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:53am
“Bullock will win for many reasons, the least of which is her performance in the film.”
This actually sounds so sad. I hope the actors branch are currently envying her a bit, because she is suddenly having all that attention, and decide to vote for Sidibe or Mulligan instead
Gleek says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:54am
@adrian2nano How long are you willing to wait for a Meryl win? Another 27 years?
filmboymichael says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:56am
Sasha,
even though i started a facebook page in support of streep – i would LOVE it if Sidibe won – it was an auspicious film debut….and we all know that the academy loves them….what a giddy, unaffected speech we could expect….
however, i feel that if anyone were to upset – and i think it could be supporting actor – it would be christopher plummer….much the same as james coburn for affliction way back when….just a feeling….i would be somewhat upset (but not minding) if plummer trumped waltz…
Craig says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 9:59am
Waltz isn’t losing. His is the best performance in the category by miles, and whether they know him or not, or whether Tucci and Harrelson have “friends in the academy” won’t matter because Waltz is flawless. Even if Basterds loses everything else, it’ll still get that.
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:01am
Christopher Plummer: the movie is too bad. Upsets come when either the supporting performance is really a lead performance or when it is swept up with general love for the film (that usually has lots of nods). Precious could really do some damage if the studio upped the advertising, which it doesn’t look they are going to do.
Someone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:01am
If Bullock wins this would be the worst Academy’s decision since Berry (or even Paltrow) so I’m completely against this possibility (and I still have hope that Streep will win).
Alper says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:04am
Sandra will win the best actress Oscar.It’s her time !!
Dorothy Sayers says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:05am
[deleted for being yet another creep - poor Meryl, her fans are nuts]
Patrick says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:05am
Bullock is a lock like “Avatar” was a lock for the PGA.
No one knows anything. No one can speak in absolutes.
What a story. Everything but the bloodhounds snapping at her rear.
Simon Warrasch says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:07am
I think the winners will be:
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique – Precious
I would give the Oscar – if i had to choose of the nominees:
Colin Firth (RU: Jeremy Renner)
Gabby Sidibe (RU: Sandra Bullock)
Christoph Waltz (RU: Woddy Harrelson)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (RU: Mo’Nique)
menyc says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:07am
I don’t see a chart. I think it’s all locked and it’s quickly becoming a very, very dull season. I like the spread-of-wealth, but am already getting sleepy.
Linet says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:12am
[edited for being a dick - good luck with your delusions.]
Simon Warrasch says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:13am
Avatar wasn’t a lock for the PGA! The clear Front runner was: The Hurt Locker!
Awards:
Avatar (Golden Globe, and nothing more)
The Hurt Locker (Golden Satellite, Critics Choice, and the PGA and most of the critics)
xixi says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:17am
the longer lead time to the Oscars definitely changes the dynamics of the race — it allows people to second guess their choices.
pundits tend to tie things up too neatly based on precursors etc. things are never quite what they seem.
wouldn’t life and the oscars be very dull if everything turns out as predicted?
bambi says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:19am
Waltz, Mo and Birdges are locked and loaded. Triple win.
Sandra is the frontrunner but not locked for the win yet. Blind Side nomination shows big support but this nom has just stirred a backlash. If Meryl bounces back with BAFTA than the race is on again only because her name will be back in the headlines. That would be a big sell-out on BAFTA part, though, cause I can`t imagine Brits really give a shit about Julia Child or even Americana like HL. If they win than it`s a bandwaggon. They have a chance to push their obvious preference Education and stir the pot in actress race a bit but I think they`ll sell out and go for usual suspects that topline oscar list.
Sonja says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:22am
I’ll accept a Bullock win, if her name is really spelled out of the envelop, and NOT a single second earlier.
Team Butter is still here and Meryl does not NEED to win, she DESERVES it.^^
J says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:22am
I agree that it’s the supporting categories that I could see upsets in: Maggie over Mon’Nique and Stanley or Woody over Christoph–Waltz has to be annoying people with those annoying acceptance speeches he insists on giving. The leads are locked…Jeff and Sandra continue to gain strength.
Marble_Plum says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:24am
I’m not sure how I feel about this article, to be honest. I feel like there should be more in-depth analyis for the four acting races. Kris Tapley is doing that over at In Contention; he did a great article about the Best Supporting Actresses, even though he’s sure that’s a lock.
Why are we discounting Meryl’s BFCA and Golden Globe wins? She’s given some charming speeches too, and has won more awards than Sidibe. The same goes for Mulligan. She was runner-up for the L.A. Critics award, and her film has been embraced by BAFTA.
And what does race have to do with anything? I mean, if you’re going to bring that up, why not talk about Morgan Freeman being nominated? He’s won Supporting Actor, but not Actor, and would have a similar trek like Denzel if he did win. He’s also one of the most nominated black actors in history. I know he has no chance of winning, but if we’re going by sentiment….
I just feel like this could be way more balanced. You don’t even go into why Tucci could win based on his performance, and I REALLY want him to win.
I don’t mean to offend you, Sasha, but I definitely think this could be a more thorough article.
Eric says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:25am
Best Actor and Supporting Actor is definately locked with Jeff Bridges and Christoph Waltz, Monique will steal all the light for Prescious so Gabby is not going to win too… Best actress is a toss up between Meryl and Sandra… Both good performances both good actresses…
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:33am
I’m not sure how I feel about this article, to be honest. I feel like there should be more in-depth analyis for the four acting races. Kris Tapley is doing that over at In Contention; he did a great article about the Best Supporting Actresses, even though he’s sure that’s a lock.
Great, go on over there then and have yourself a good time. It’s your choice to come here or not, to read what I write or not. And of course you meant to offend me. For all of the supportive readers I have, this year has really brought out the haters. So, anyone who doesn’t like the content here is free to go elsewhere.
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:35am
Okay – I’m seriously thinking of closing comments on this thread. Keep the discussion civil and I won’t have to.
FrankieJ says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:35am
Agreed on everything but Best Actress. I think charts, etc…cannot begin to tell the Streep story and the fact that it’s been 28 years since she won her second Oscar. And while I agree Bullock has become the one to beat in the last few weeks, it’s Streep who could upset her. When voters sit down and actually decide which performance was BEST (and crazy, pollyanna me still believes some actually do that). Combine that with the fact the it’s time for Streep to be rewarded a 3rd time.
And I’m not saying this because I feel Streep was better than Bullock (of course she was, but…)…I’m saying Bullock is he front-runner but if Streep wants it bad enough, we may just see her on a few talk shows in the coming weeks.
BTW, if Renner wins, I will be the happiest person on the planet that night. Bullocks to Best Actress!
One Source Talent says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:36am
I agree with your picks. But I believe Sandra will win, it is very uncommon for a newbie to win an Oscar, but there are always some surprises. It seems when I put my picks together, sometimes the actors I’m sure are going to win or who have one the Globe are passed up.
Candice Frederick says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:40am
i wouljd love to see gabby sidibe steal this form the less deserving bullock.
cinemaniax7 says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:41am
Best Actress is still a two-horse race, and one of those two horses is Meryl Streep, not Gabby Sidibe. In recent history, the closest correlation I see to a prior race is from last year when comeback kid and first-time nominee Mickey Rourke faced off against veteran-acting-powerhouse-who-already-won-one-of-these-things Sean Penn. In the end, the Academy went for the seemingly effortless work by the wily veteran who, in fact, gave the better performance. This year, that’s Streep. As for the SAG win, former TV series performer Bullock benefited from the broader guild constituency that votes for the SAGs, and the TV people love to see one of their own win the big prize (witness Ron Howard and Steven Spielberg winning DGA awards in years they weren’t even nominated for the Oscar). As further evidence, I offer SAG wins by Eddie Murphy and Johnny Depp.
Christopher says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:41am
Aragom75-I want Meryl to win as well, but I don’t see how you think Sasha is pushing Sandra? In her statement she said the least of the reasons she will win is “because of her performance.”
I still hold out hope that Meryl will take home the award, but lets be civil! LOL.
That said, it is understandable that Meryl fans are raging, because once again, despite giving the best performance of the year-she is going to lose. It is very difficult to stomach yet again.
To be fair, the Sandra fans are also getting a tad out of hand with the Meryl-bashing.
In the immortal words of Rodney King, “Why can’t we all just get along??” LOL.
xixi says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:41am
i think Sasha has raised a fair point about Sidibe being a dark horse.
this is reflected in the online polls and comments on blog posts that discuss the Best Actress Race.
In this Huffington Post Poll on Who Should Win Best Actress: Streep comes in #1, Sidibe is in second place and Bullock 3rd.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/06/best-actress-oscar-2010-w_n_451200.html
Also look at the comments on the post about Sandra’s proclamation that “she is so not winning the oscar’. Once again, Sidibe’s name comes up as an alternative winner. ( To be fair, Streep’s and Mulligan’s names are mentioned too)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/07/sandra-bullock-im-so-not-_n_452601.html
Ross says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:45am
@ Sasha,
first of all – I am a Meryl fan and I don’t think I’m calling people names etc. This was kind of insulting.
I don’t think that I will cross a line if I say that I dislike the way you make things always about Bullock. You’ve always promoted Bullock and if anybody sees your posts over the season, it’s obvious.
And to everyone out there: it’s really funny how you call Bullock’s performance ‘deserving’. Or ‘Meryl will win the next time’. When is the next time? if they find an alternative, they go with it. it was Meryl’s year until January when they decided it’s Bullock because of b.o.
And actually, critics for example, think it’s Meryl who delivered the best performance.
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:46am
Right, not all Meryl Streep fans but many of them play so rough and so dirty that it’s really hard to fathom such a group could really be true fans of Ms. Streep (I myself am and have always been a big fan).
med says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:49am
It is the media (and pundits like Sasha) that have decided that Bullock will/should win BA. Hopefully, the Academy will ignore the media and reward the better performance of Streep.
cnk says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:49am
Arghh! I hate all of this talk of Sandra being a lock. I just don’t buy the “it’s her time” argument. Quite frankly, she hasn’t earned it looking at her body of work. The talk of it being Winslet’s “time” last year at least made more sense because of the consistently good to great performances preceding last year (5 previous nominations before the age of 35!) Even the Best Actor lock, Jeff Bridges, earned his “it’s his time” stripes with a history of recognized performances and nominations. Bridges has always been well liked by his fellow actors, much the same way that people talk of Bullock being liked in the industry yet the Academy waits until Bridges is in 60′s for it the “his time” to win. We all think that the Academy is so ready and in a rush to put Bullock, at 45, in the same league? I don’t know if I’m completely convinced. The votes aren’t in yet, it’s not a done deal, folks! Where is the rally for Meryl being due, especially after last year? Or the rally for Gabby or Carey? All of this talk of Sandra being a “lock” only feeds that beast and serves to make it so.
Craig says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:49am
The only one of these that isn’t over and done with is Actress. People need to stop pretending someone is going to upset Mo’nique or that they’re not going to vote for Waltz because they don’t like his speeches. As Kris Tapley said a few days ago, “sometimes it really does come down to the best performance”.
Franc says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:52am
I wouldn’t mind Sandra Bullock winning but i guess this is a popularity contest and Meryl has won before, not to mention holds the record for nominations. However, based on the performance Meryl as Julia Child was a far greater achievement. I guess you could say Meryl should win but Sandra will win…
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:54am
It is the media (and pundits like Sasha) that have decided that Bullock will/should win BA. Hopefully, the Academy will ignore the media and reward the better performance of Streep.
Right, because the SAG award win means nothing.
JTag says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:54am
Sasha wrote: “For all of the supportive readers I have, this year has really brought out the haters.”
So this begs the question – is this how Cameron influences the Oscars? Big ratings for TV and big explosions on blogs?
patrick@jhu says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:56am
Good Article Sasha. I can see with Gabby could pull an upset. I actually think she delivers the best performance of this year – not Streep, not Bullock.
If Bullock wins, I’d be happy too. You’ve demonstrated your insight into the Oscars. The race is hardly always only about “the performance.” The debate is old. Poster named Ross should have understood this reality already.
In funny that over at incontention.com, Kris came out and said he couldn’t take the ugliness toward this film (THS) and this actress (Bullock) anymore. I think Meryl fans (or the anti-Bullock fans if you may call) are not doing any good but causing back backlashes.
I believe there are good sensible Meryl fans out there and it has been my privilege to have exchanged comments with them. However, the really bad ones are real dicks and bitches. I feel for you.
Sasha Stone says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 10:58am
So this begs the question – is this how Cameron influences the Oscars? Big ratings for TV and big explosions on blogs?
It’s hard to know. Usually I ignore the commenters because it always gets ugly this time of year but for some reason, the really mean people have showed up in the Bullock versus Streep war. Many of the Bullock fans have been just as bad as the Streep fans but I will not be bullied by readers. Not ever. Threatening and name calling is really not the way to win arguments. As it happens, I have no favorite this year in the actress category but I won’t lead along an illusion that I think Streep can win when I don’t see how it’s possible. The Blind Side got a best picture nomination, Julie & Julia did not. The Julie part of Julie and Julia ruins the whole film. Finally, if Streep had never won, she could possibly win for this but to win she really has to top Sophie’s Choice, which she hasn’t done yet.
cerva says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 11:03am
If we take a GOOD OSCARWORTHY ACTING into consideration and that’s what the Academy should think about giving the Award, there is no doubt that the best woman’s performance of 2009 was the one of MERYL STREEP’s. That should be as easy as that! No question about it.
xixi says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 11:04am
Sasha,
I agree with all your points except for Streep has to top Sophie’s Choice to win a 3rd.
Jack Nicholson won his 3rd Oscar for a light film, “As Good As It Gets”, he did not top his iconic performance in “One Flew Over a Cuckoo’s Nest.
Your point about not being in a Best Picture nominee is more salient.
FrankieJ says:
Sunday, February 7, 2010 at 11:08am
‘Right, because the SAG award win means nothing.’
Didn’t mean much to Rourke and Streep last year, in terms of their Oscar chances…Christie and Ruby Dee the year before…Murphy the year before that…
We can cite this and that to back up our arguments, the bottom line is…no one really knows…