Indiewire Polls and Various Others Take the Temperature
Peter Knegt at Indiewire polled 28 bloggers and critics in the what will win/what should win. I am kind of a stickler for pairing Picture and Director because I think if you like the movie enough to want it to win Best Pic then you should also reward the Director. To me it’s throwing the dog a bone if you don’t do it that way – but maybe that’s just me. You will find, though, that public polls are split. The ones with a more film-geek centric audience will always go for Basterds as their favorite. But the polls that hit the general public go for Avatar all of the way. The funny thing is that The Hurt Locker has a 94 Metacritic rating and yet the critics have, in these last months, wrapped their love around Basterds, oddly enough. Kind of makes you wonder why Basterds didn’t have a higher Metacritic rating.
Best Picture
Who Will Win: The “Avatar” or “The Hurt Locker” question got a clear answer from those polled: “The Hurt Locker” took 77% of the vote, while “Avatar” too 23%.Who Should Win: It was much more spread out when it came to who folks thought deserved the big prize, with 30% saying “Inglourious Basterds”, 26% of the vote going to both “The Hurt Locker” and “A Serious Man,” and “Up,” “Up In The Air,” “Avatar,” “District 9” and “Precious” eaching taking a lone shout out.
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Actor: Bridges
Actress: Bullock/Gabby Sidibe
Supporting Actor: Waltz
Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Screenplay: The Hurt Locker/Basterds and A Serious Man
Animated: Up/Fantastic Mr. Fox
Foreign: The White Ribbon/A Prophet
Cinematography: Avatar/White Ribbon and Basterds
Art Direction: Avatar/Avatar
Meanwhile, over at the Hollywood Stock Exchange, it look like The Hurt Locker has finally pulled ahead of Avatar in the final days leading up to the Oscars. It’s close, though. The rest are the usual suspects — Basters is ahead in Screenplay.
Meanwhile, over at IMDb, the poll results are very different.
Best Picture: Avatar with 33% of the votes, Basterds in second place with 22%, and The Hurt Locker in third, with 21%
Best Director: James Cameron with 35% of the vote, Bigelow with 32%
Actress: Sandra Bullock way ahead with 44% of the vote.
Actor: Jeff Bridges with 39% of the vote.
Supporting: Waltz, Mo’Nique
Foreign: The White Ribbon
Original Screenplay: Basterds way ahead with 55%
Adapted: District 9 way ahead with 41%
Animated: Up
I’m guessing the IMDb readers don’t read Oscar sites. We’ll see how they do when the Oscars are announced.
The Yahoo Movies poll results are:
Best Picture: Avatar with 42% of the vote
Best Director: Jim Cameron with 51% of the vote
Actor: Jeff Bridges
Actress: Sandra Bullock way ahead with 73% of the vote
Supporting: Christoph Waltz, Mo’Nique
What I find interesting about the public sentiment and the possibility of The Hurt Locker actually winning Best Picture is that this will undoubtedly be the year where the gap between the public and the Academy would have been at its widest. Maybe it was also this way in 1977 when Annie Hall beat Star Wars. I know there is going to be disappointment either way. There is no winning this race. No matter what film wins, it will feel like it deserve to win.
I do feel a surge for Avatar here in the final moments, this idea of it’s just too big to ignore coming full circle. I am only predicting The Hurt Locker because I plan to go down with the ship. But honestly, how can Avatar lose?
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Jeff says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:35am
Its disappointing to me that Inglorious Basterds is not the front runner as it should be — as it is the most satisfying, well done and BEST movie of the year — even other awards daily members agree who took part in your vote. So I still hold out hope that the Avatar and hurt locker will split and we will see an Inglorious sweep, I can dream. the hurt locker is good, but Basterds is a classic — a movie that reminds you why you love going to the movies in the first place.
Lars says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:38am
But honestly, how can Avatar lose?
Oh c’mon. Don’t be ridiculous. THL has won pretty much every guild, and you are asking this question?
Stop pretending THL is an underdog. It isn’t working.
Ken says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:38am
“But honestly, how can Avatar lose?”
lol! Come on, are you serious? Very easily: it hasn’t won a significant precursor & it doesn’t have screenplay/acting nominations. When they poll Oscar voters, THL is way in front. I don’t understand the need to cling to this silly notion that Avatar is too big to ignore. Since when did box office determine the winner? I mean flashback to 13 months ago: TDK shut out of BD & BP. And TDK had precursors & critics on its side even more than Avatar!
This race isn’t going to be close.
Shannon says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:39am
Generally I’d agree with your point about director/picture, Sasha. Not always, but generally. Unfortunately, with 10 BP nominees and only five Director nominees, for me, there is a disconnect. For best picture, I would select A SERIOUS MAN. If the Coens were nominated I would pick them, too. Since they aren’t, I favor Bigelow.
Actually, come to think of it, there are two directors whose films I liked better than THL, but I still prefer Bigelow. So maybe I do see directing as something distinct from BP. I’ll have to think on that some more.
Jesus Alonso says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:39am
While we’re thinking “Up in the Air” is going to walk away with Adapted, I agree somewhat with IMDB’s poll… it’s is really possible and likely that a movie AS loved as District 9 upsets there so Neil Blomkamp is awarded with an Oscar as reward. It’s easier to leave out of your ballot a more conventional movie as Up in the Air than to completely remove District 9 at everything.
Not saying it will, but that would be a serious contender for a NGNG prediction.
Ibad says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:40am
I do believe the IMDb poll is who people want to win. Anyways, I just don’t see Avatar having the numbers to win. It might have fans in the Sound Editing branch? Visual effects? It doesn’t have many guild awards to gloat, nor is any major category besides Picture in contention for it (Bigelow’s a lock, let’s be real). Actor’s haven’t really gone for the motion capture, writers don’t seem all that impressed with it, and it lost the PGA and DGA. Its strengths were supposed to be in its techs yet it couldn’t manage nominations in the double digits, tying with the opposite in scope Hurt Locker. I just don’t think it has enough votes.
GMJ says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:42am
I wonder if the results from sites like Yahoo Movies or IMDb would be different if users were asked to rank the Best Picture nominees from one to ten? I suspect that it would be a logistical nightmare for the person or persons setting up the polls.
Ken says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:48am
Many of those voting in the IMDb/AOL/Yahoo polls are probably not old enough to watch R-rated movies.
Chung Fang says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:49am
” TDK shut out of BD & BP. And TDK had precursors & critics on its side even more than Avatar!”
TDK had more precursor nominations that Avatar?? Avatar got PGA/DGA/WGA nominations, and won Golden Globe for best picture drama and director. TDK, got PGA/DGA/WGA nods, but no BAFTA, no Golden Globes, not even won any critic choice awards, it just further proves that you could be loved(nominated) by those three guilds and still failed to be loved(nominated)by AMPAS. Just like you could win all three guilds and still fail to have enough votes to win best picture(Brokeback Mountain, BM would have still lost to Crash even if it won ACE in my opinion)
I should say if TDK got so much support from those guilds, wouldn’t it have been a guaranteed shoo in for best picture/director/writing nominations??? Nah. That is why we will never find out how close the race is by just judging precursors this year. I am sadly predicting THL to win, but I think there is still a chance of Avatar or Inglorious Basterds winning. All these analyses and studying do not really mean much about the real results on Sunday.
Pierre de Plume says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:49am
Despite the precursors working against it, Avatar is indeed a phenomenon and could establish a modern-day precedent. In a way, its fortunes aren’t that different from those of Sandra Bullock.
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:50am
Stop pretending THL is an underdog. It isn’t working.
Cynical much? If you talked to any of my close friends you would hear the same thing — why on earth would I be pretending? I have no reason to now – ballots are closed. Oh maybe to curry favor with the haters? Nope, wouldn’t waste my time. I have never seen such a huge gap between public polls and Academy Best Pic winners is all. I really feel like Avatar will win. I’m just afraid to predict it because of my own personal love of THL. The thing is, when it was The Departed — the public polls all favored that film but the pundits didn’t think it could win (they eventually came around). With ten best pics in the running, Basterds to pull votes from THL, the film’s sheer popularity and the fact that the Academy might not want to fall into step with everyone else all points to an Avatar spoiler for BP. How do you not see that? Oh, I guess it’s more fun to try to ridicule and humiliate your host, huh? Is it really that fun, though?
Chung Fang says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:03am
“Despite the precursors working against it, Avatar is indeed a phenomenon and could establish a modern-day precedent. In a way, its fortunes aren’t that different from those of Sandra Bullock.”
Exactly my point. This year has a lot of new variables that we have not seen before, that is why it makes it hard to predict the best picture. Yes, traditionally, it should be THL all the way, but like even Sasha has been suggesting. Maybe Avatar or IB will just unprecedentedly break this if-you-have-PGA/DGA/WGA’s endorsement,you-can’t-lose kind of pattern due to its various new variables and circumstances. After all, I have said it many times, it has happened to BM, and it might happen again, but the safe bet is of course, The Hurt Locker, that is what I told myself in 2005, the safe bet was Brokeback Mountain. Yeah,than this whole BM’s not winning ACE, thus there is no way that THL could lose is all pure speculation, this theory history has now become a justification for THL fans to justify that THL can not repeat BM history because it has won ACE/CAS/ADG?? I don’t think it is that cut and dry. Anyhow, we will see about Sunday. I want it to be over already, this Oscar race is just getting too long and exhausting.
Bob Burns says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:07am
Crash was metacritic 69 but ended up as the #6 or #8(coc) film on the end of year lists.
scoring a film stand alone during the year is very different from ranking a film at years end.
Ken says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:11am
Have you talked to voters and gotten the sense that Avatar is going to win or is this just a theory? As I am aware, Avatar is sorta popular but not anywhere close to as popular as THL amongst voters.
If you predict Avatar is going to win, you’re kinda relying on a secret bloc of Avatar supporters out there that nobody knows about. Seems far-fetched.
“Basterds to pull votes from THL.” In the context of Avatar vs THL, that can’t happen. And plus who do you think the IB voters have ranked higher: Avatar or THL? Sort of a no brainer. In the incredibly unlikely scenario where THL is behind Avatar with IB or Up in the Air still left to eliminate, THL is going to get a majority of those votes. Logic, simulations, and talking to voters about their preferences have all born this out.
If this really is Avatar vs The Hurt Locker and they’re running a lap to win Best Picture…the Hurt Locker has about a 30 foot head start, and it gets faster as it goes along (preferential ballot).
The only hiccup in this race, in my opinion, is if Inglourious passes Avatar. When Avatar is eliminated, can it give IB enough of a boost to pass THL? Remote, but possible.
Chung Fang says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:16am
“Have you talked to voters and gotten the sense that Avatar is going to win or is this just a theory? As I am aware, Avatar is sorta popular but not anywhere close to as popular as THL amongst voters.”
How do you really know?? The point is nobody knows unless we do an exit polling of all the 5700 members.
B-Square says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:20am
Seriously.
People who vote James Cameron for Best Director knows absolutely nothing about the Oscar race.
What a shame.
Jeremie says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:22am
The funny thing is that The Hurt Locker has a 94 Metacritic rating and yet the critics have, in these last months, wrapped their love around Basterds, oddly enough. Kind of makes you wonder why Basterds didn’t have a higher Metacritic rating.
I was thinking about that as well. It is rather odd because some critics were pretty harsh with it and yet the film ended up on almost every critics top ten. It could be that you might need time and several viewings to appreciate the film, but I think it is more likely due to the fact that most of the critics saw the first version of the film in Cannes which was apparently pretty bad, longer and weirdly arranged. Tarantino re-edit the film afterwards and came up with a complete different cut for its theatrical release. It could explain the progressive change of mind…
leeinchicago says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:26am
@ Jeremie 18: “…but I think it is more likely due to the fact that most of the critics saw the first version of the film in Cannes which was apparently pretty bad, longer and weirdly conceived. Tarantino re-edit the film afterwards and came up with a complete different cut for its release. It could explain the progressive change of mind…”
No, not at all. All critics in every market had press screenings of the theatrical cut. A slim number of critics go to Cannes, and anything that premieres there is later screened for press in en masse prior to release date.
Michael C. says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:27am
“But honestly, how can Avatar lose?” I hope you’re being facetious here.
Brian says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:28am
Telling….
Vegas now has THL favored to win best picture.
A few weeks back they had Avatar favored.
Now, the smart money is on THL.
I’m just looking forward to next year.
I need a year when I actually like the movie favored to win best picture.
Two years in a row I’ve failed to connect with the frontrunner, Slumdog and now Hurt Locker.
Oh well…
peace
Jeremie says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:30am
Oh right Lee, it seems quite logical, but I know, at least in France and in UK, that you can still find the Cannes reviews on most of the Newspapers online edition, and you will also have the ones when the film was released (and it sometimes ends up with two complete opposite reviews).
drew roddy says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:35am
Why do certain bloggers come onto the message boards and attack well analyzed predictions with a “you don’t know anything” attitude? We get it, we’re not oscar robots programmed to predict the future. These new “circumstances” also aren’t that hard to decode. The preferential ballot weighs heavily against avatar winning. IB MAY upset but otherwise, this is Hurt Locker’s year.
Patryk says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:39am
I have to say that in the end, the Academy will do the right thing: give “The Hurt Locker” Best Picture and Best Director. Jeff Bridges will take Best Actor and Meryl Streep will take Best Actress.
Too much attention has been given to the populist notion that “Avatar” and Sandra Bullock are going to take this. The notion that “Avatar” is too big simply won’t pan out. “Star Wars” was too big. “Jaws” was too big. “Raiders of the Lost Ark” was too big. These hugely popular films couldn’t win and they all had critical support. And if you factor in inflation or number of tickets sold, “Avatar” does not seem all that earth-shattering.
And as for Bullock, think of someone like Doris Day. A perfectly well-liked movie star and box office draw, nominated for a bon-bon like “Pillow Talk,” but she lost the Oscar to art-house darling Simone Signoret. The difference today is the media hype and all the reporters who think popularity and quality are married. Not so. I must believe the Academy will be a bit more discerning than The Golden Globes or the People’s Choice Awards.
HOPE.
ryan - the original lower case "r" says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:44am
I think the metacritic rating for Inglourious Basterds is misleading, because I think that’s a film that got more appreciation after multiple viewings.
B-Square says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:54am
“Too much attention has been given to the populist notion that “Avatar” and Sandra Bullock are going to take this. The notion that “Avatar” is too big simply won’t pan out. “Star Wars” was too big. “Jaws” was too big. “Raiders of the Lost Ark” was too big. These hugely popular films couldn’t win and they all had critical support. And if you factor in inflation or number of tickets sold, “Avatar” does not seem all that earth-shattering.”
THIS.
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 11:26am
“But honestly, how can Avatar lose?” I hope you’re being facetious here.
I’m not. And besides, someone I know who is really good at predicting just called it for Basterds for the Big Win. Couldn’t believe it. We’ll see if it turns out to be true!!
John Oliver says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 11:35am
Funny,
Ive heard a few Academy members and they say they either like Inglorious Basterds or Precious.
Another Patrick says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 12:15pm
“… how can Avatar lose?” You’re way too emotionally invested to see it is all. Back away a bit and think a bit like the Academy and it is patently obvious: Avatar can’t win. Maybe with old-style voting it could, but with preferential voting there is simply no way Avatar is, on average, going to rank higher on Academy ballots than BOTH Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. Simple as that. (I believe it has long been between these two anyway; once Avatar only tied for most noms, its chances were over imho.)
Sertan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:32pm
CNN.com has some crazy (!) Oscar poll results (total votes 232,660). I wonder who those voters are and where they live:)
Best picture: winner: Avatar (31%), runner up is UP (15%), Hurt Locker only has (6%)
Best Actor: shocking winner: Jeremy Renner (34%), Jeff Bridges (5th spot with 15%)
Best Actress: winner tie between Meryl and Carey Mulligan (29% each), Sandra Bullock (5th spot 12%)
Best Supporting Actor: winner: C. Plummer (22%), C. Waltz(5th spot 19%)
Best Supporting Actress: winner: Vera Farmiga (31%), runner up M.Gyllanhall (30%;), Monique (3rd spot 16%)
Best Director: winner tie between Bigelow and Cameron (34% each)
It is quite a big pool of voters.but totally interesting choices!!!! Farmiga? Plummer? Renner?
Again i repeat the same question: who are those voters? where do they live?
Chris Price says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:36pm
There’s a very simple reason why all these audience polls are so different from the critics and presumably the Academy. NOBODY saw The Hurt Locker compared to how many folks saw Avatar. Its winning the polls because its the only movie everyone knows. The Hurt Locker has grossed 27 million dollars worldwide INCLUDING DVD SALES. Just to be clear, more people saw the remake of The Stepfather in theaters than have seen The Hurt Locker ever. I don’t think its fair to say opinion is sharply divided, because the public has no opinion on The Hurt Locker. IMDB’s poll might be in Avatar’s favor, but you’ll notice that The Hurt Locker still garnered 21% of the vote and trailed second place (and much more well known IB) by 1%. The vast majority folks who have seen it are clearly on board for a Hurt Locker victory, I wouldn’t say the majority of people who’ve seen Avatar are down with that winning.
Michael C. says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:40pm
Sasha, I hope that good predictor is right! Still, I don’t think it’s really a matter of “How can Avatar lose” so much as “How can anything beyond Avatar, Hurt Locker or Basterds win?”
Sertan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:45pm
Chris Price,
I agree about best picture. But then how can we explain Jeremy Renner winning best actor? Do you think those voters voted for Jeremy Renner by looking at his cute picture only on cnn.com???
Ryan Adams says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:41pm
I wouldn’t say the majority of people who’ve seen Avatar are down with that winning.
all due respect to the global movie-going populace, but I wouldn’t say most people who’ve seen Avatar are even aware the Oscars are happening Sunday night.
Ryan Adams says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 3:09pm
And besides, someone I know who is really good at predicting just called it for Basterds for the Big Win. Couldn’t believe it. We’ll see if it turns out to be true!!
Honestly, Sasha, I’m feeling so numbed out and flat-lined from the extended campaign season, I’m gonna need a couple of good upsets as CPR Sunday night. At this point, I don’t care what it takes to defibrillate me.
These are like the friggen Tantric Oscars, aren’t they? Happy ending, weepy ending, humiliating ending — serve it up! I’m so ready to get off already.
G says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 3:10pm
I am sure you know already Sasha but the envelope website totally edited some of your comments and said you were pulling for Avatar for best picture. I knew it was’nt true and I can’t believe they posted that!
Brian lutz says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 3:31pm
All due respect, you guys represent the elitist pricks that make us liberals look bad.
Chung Fang says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 3:36pm
“I agree about best picture. But then how can we explain Jeremy Renner winning best actor?”
Exactly. Anything that is in favor of Avatar doesn’t mean anything for THL supporters. IMDB, Box Officemojo, CNN, and of course, the meaningless Golden Globes. Renner’s winning the best actor poll proves that THL has also been seen by the people who voted CNN online Oscar polls. On IMDB, Cameron wins too, but Bigelow is just 1 or 2 percent behind Cameron, so those people who voted for for the online polls are all useless teenagers who do not follow the Oscars at all just like many hardcore THL supporter suggest?? LOL,I don’t think so, It is clear that the public is in favor of Avatar winning. The reason Avatar did not win PGA/DGA/WGA is strictly political and a reflection of those guilds’ sentiment and jealously towards Cameron. Why award him? He has been awarded with 2.5 billion dollars. I hope the nearly 5800 AMPAS members came to their senses and voted fairly. Maybe the public’s tendency of favoring Avatar has extended to the AMPAS, I hope. I am sadly predicting THL to win, but I won’t give up on the idea of Avatar winning or even IB winning until Sunday evening.
Paul says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 4:00pm
50-21% for Cameron as Best Director at Yahoo.
The gap between public and Academy *will be at its widest* since 1977, you may have meant to write. The one consolation I do feel is that the high-up Academy brass realize this. When Hurt Locker wins, they know it’s going to do long-term damage to their credibility with the public, and they may struggle next year to get ratings on par with the Miss America pageant. You’ve gotta go back to >1954< to find a lower-earning BP winner. Not exactly the kind of history I want to be making. Hurt Locker had its chance, and struck out in its theatrical release. And $712 million later, Avatar hit it out of the park. People must've liked the acting, the story, the visuals, or else they wouldn't have kept coming back to the theater to see it again and again. Quality and popularity did mix here.
That said, it will take a miracle for Avatar to win BP. That's really the only big card in play, possibly, right now. Miracle as in Villanova-Georgetown 1985 NCAA men's hoops title game, as in the loaves and fishes, as in the Miracle on Ice 30 years ago.
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 4:46pm
When Hurt Locker wins, they know it’s going to do long-term damage to their credibility with the public, and they may struggle next year to get ratings on par with the Miss America pageant.
Bullshit. Who cares what the American public think. They have terrible taste. Look at the popularity of The Bachelor. Hopefully the Academy has better taste and can tune into the “American public” to the films that really matter. If we keep dumbing things down to the level of the lowest common denominator, things are going to get very crappy very soon. Next thing you know we will be considering Michael Bay’s films for Best Picture. Best Picture should be BEST picture, not “favorite of the American public.”
Dazed/Confused says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 5:04pm
Inglorious Basterds winning would be the best solution to make (almost) everyone satisfied.
It was a pretty big hit,especially on DVD where it outsold a movie like District 9 2:1,it received a pretty big critical backing at the end of the year and it’s Tarantino who is a big fan/cult favorite and whose movies have never won the big prize unlike Cameroon.
It’s the middle point between the movie everyone saw and the movie no one did.
Ryan Adams says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 5:19pm
All due respect, you guys represent the elitist pricks that make us liberals look bad.
All due respect, liberals who think elite is a dirty word are part of the reason the rest of us liberals have to waste so much time pandering to the masses when we could be getting all sorts of cool elite shit accomplished.
Patryk says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 5:53pm
Right on Sasha @40
Right on Ryan @42
Shannon says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 5:55pm
I’m not really getting the whole criticism of the Oscars going to movies that aren’t mainstream or the big blockbusters. I was talking to a friend of mine earlier this week. She’s not a movie person at all, at least not outside the standard fare. I’m pretty sure THE BLIND SIDE was her favorite movie last year. I love her, and she’s really quite intelligent, she just isn’t into movies. And her favorite kind are of the inspirational variety, like THE BLIND SIDE.
Anyway…I guess she was glad that THE BLIND SIDE was nominated for BP. But she didn’t think it would win. Moreover, she didn’t even think it SHOULD win, even though she probably didn’t see a movie she liked better. This is because she knows there are probably better movies out there, even if she hasn’t seen them and really has no interest in seeing them.
Oh, and she saw AVATAR and didn’t really like it. I liked AVATAR 1000x more than she did. FWIW.
Paul says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:48pm
B-Square: “Seriously.
People who vote James Cameron for Best Director knows absolutely nothing about the Oscar race.
What a shame.”
I would respectfully say, who had more to lose in the end? Cameron or Bigelow? Hell, her last feature film was K-1 The Widowmaker seven years ago. Would anyone have noticed if HL didn’t get nominated for Oscars and precursor awards like it has? Cameron’s last feature – the most popular film in history. When you’re handed a budget of $350 million so much can go wrong. It could have been a flop of mythic proportion. But read the words of Philadelphia Daily News movie critic Gary Thompson, who is a HL fan, BTW:
“Avatar” is a great movie to have around, because it reminds us what a true hit looks like.
“It opened big, and stayed big – retaining 80 percent of its audience week to week in an age when most schlockbusters drop 50-70 percent in week two, then fizzle to nothing in no time.
“Avatar” is proof to Hollywood that it can still reach masses of people, still compete with video games or YouTube.com – and win.”
It won’t win Sunday, but I believe still that a rising tide helps lift all boats. Even those in arthouse places like Sundance and Toronto and Venice.
Mary B. says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 10:01pm
Ryan Adams
March 5th, 2010 at 5:19 pm 42
All due respect, liberals who think elite is a dirty word are part of the reason the rest of us liberals have to waste so much time pandering to the masses when we could be getting all sorts of cool elite shit accomplished.
=================================
I love you, Ryan. And I plan to shamelessly steal your quote.
Reichdome says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 10:58pm
Sasha i vehemently disagree with you as many others wold on that occassion you seem to be equating ‘avatar’ as representing the negative blockbuster- all about money- there are blockbusters with qualityand i woudl nto doubt that and i wouldn’t attack the public on what good they give film a purpose to exist- and without not all the opublic have bad taste otgerwise why is it the critically aclaimed benchmark clearing ‘avatar’ has become the most popular film of all time?
explain that one. I think some stuff done to the public is trash trasnformers has NOT BEARING OR WEIGHT ON THIS DEBATE HOWEVER
Equating a blokcbuster like transformers to a film like ;’avatar’ is chalk and cheese for a few reasons:
1. ‘avatar’ is pushing the boundary of cinema and a landmark moment and everyone knows it ‘trasnformers’ is still an awesome film but pushed effectes as visual effects mcuh mroe limited than ‘avatar’
2. ‘Avatar’ is critically acclaimed and ‘trasnformers esp the 2nd one was trashed or lukewarm reviews at best
3. ‘avatar’ gets oscar nominations trasnformers get a sound editing and i not sure vfx nomination at best
4. one is thought provoking and intelligently made the other trasnformers is pure entertainment.
May B. whilst it is true SOME of what Ryan and Sasha say is conservatist at times it is compeltely untrue and unfair on them in defense of them which i proud to do to dub them as a conservatist site. if yo look at the bigger picture of what Ryan and Sasha tlerate- they tolerate me for one and sumtiems i let my passions fdly and other sites clearly much mroe conservative than this one take a swipe at me cos of my unique approach but i been welcome here and considering i see myself as mroe progressive than conservcative id appreciate you retract that simplified comment and antyone else who seeks to put this great forum in the box of conservatism.
This forum more than others this site strikes a balance of both conservative and progressive views more than any other one that why i forgive them for not agreeing with me a lot and vice versa.
I dont believe it right anymroe if ryan and sasha dont mind me speaking on behalf pf tjhem both as a fierce advocate and supporter of a balanced approach- which this forum delivers and this site time and again and never ceases to amaze me, that to attack the people who devote their time and energy in making this so accesible to the broader public does it an insult to suggest that ryan and sasha’s site is hijacked by conservatives itr is morally and ehtically wrong to judge.
At least if i let fly i do so only with criticizing peoples opinions not the person.
I think it important you be areful about that.
Apologies sasha and dryan i hope you dont mind me standing up for you both i know you can sntand up for yourself…but i dont think attacking you guys is right anymore i rather more covberage on the smear campaign insitgated by chartier or more mixzed opinion by other columnist stuff to debate even if i sorta tired of it cos i still think locker will win than people attacking you guys it just wrong you both deserve better you always have my respect- even if other people may brtand me as suckng up but it about what i believe and i make no apologies to standing up to what i believe agianst those who attakc you
The Dude says:
Sunday, March 7, 2010 at 9:25am
Frankly, this “how can Avatar lose” thing because you don’t want to “jinx” the movie is ridiculous, Sasha. Makes you look like an 11 year old or something. Avatar is losing because it lost from the PGA and DGA to TECHNICAL guilds, where it was supposed to rule, has no screenplay and acting nominees, is too divisive and won’t get many #2 and #3 votes, etc, actors don’t like it, people think Cameron is a SOB, etc. But you know all that already.
And #45:
“When you’re handed a budget of $350 million so much can go wrong”
Well, if you have a budget 35 TIMES SMALLER, a lot of things can go much more wrong. Avatar was as sure to be a hit as any film released in the last decade.