The State of the Race: Let the Right One In
A reader asked why there is so much predictions wall-paper that reflect exactly the same choices in exactly the same categories, except for one or two risky picks here or there. They wanted to know how predictors came to these decisions. I can’t really tell you why people all tend to think alike except that, perhaps, it is in our nature to want to be like-minded to avoid ridicule.
There are five kinds of Oscar predictors. The first is the over-confident type. Those who are new on the scene and cocky because they are certain that A) it’s easy, and B) they know everything. Those are people who will get knocked down pretty quickly with a really off prediction. But this will be a good lesson. The cockiness will fade and in its place, hesitancy.
The second kind is the self-doubter. This is also a troublesome role to play. I consider myself one of these. You can second guess every choice, and talk yourself into anyone winning. When you are too close to the race, and too involved in it, you don’t see the forest for the trees; what should be obvious isn’t.
The third kind is wishful thinking type. You pick those you hope will win, or think SHOULD win instead of those you truly believe have the best chance of winning.
The fourth and most common kind, the type who plays by the rules, uses the stats and precursor methods and the “consensus.” This will always land you with a decent score, but you will get the really high scores without taking risks.
And the fifth kind is very rare. This is the person who is keyed into the tastes of the Academy. Not the people who say stuff like “they always go for Holocaust movies.” But those who have either spent a lot of time with members, or they’ve figured out how to separate their own preferences from the preferences of the average voter: Kris Tapley, Pete Hammond, Steve Pond, Damien Bona, Dave Karger.
Needless to say, the fifth is usually the most successful, but not always. Just because the scenario turns out the way you think it will one year doesn’t mean those same tricks will work the following year. For instance, having the heart involved, or wishful thinking involved can sometimes help to predict an upset – like Marion Cotillard. But the next year it might not, like Mickey Rourke. Wanting it to be so doesn’t always make it so.
Anatomy of an Oscar Predictor
When I first started Oscarwatch back in 1999, the objective was to start watching the race early, follow it throughout the year and try to figure out why certain movies were considered “Oscar movies,” and to predict how the Oscars would go. Back then, there were a few of us, and we all valued the same things. We were opposed to what we called “wishful thinking,” which leads you to believe something that is impossible could actually happen, and we were opposed to advocating. Now, in 2010, both of those things have mostly kicked the bucket. Advocacy is part of the game now, whether it’s being invited to see a movie early at a festival and heralding it the Best Picture of the year so far, or whether it’s pushing hard for a film you loved. Sometimes you get lucky and that film is recognized, other times your desires fall on deaf ears. The truth is, no amount of advocating can make the Academy vote a certain way. Trust me. I know this to be true. They vote for what they like, for what moved them, or projects that either star their friends or were produced by their friends, etc.
Of course, there are many out there who don’t advocate directly – they do indirectly instead by posting negative items about a film they don’t want to win, or by continuously focusing on one film’s strengths while ignoring another. They would never come out and say they had a preference but it is kind of obvious from their coverage. I don’t even bother hiding my preferences anymore because the readers are just too smart for that. You’re popular if you like a movie the readers like; you’re reviled if you like a movie they don’t. And so it goes.
Meanwhile, we Oscar predictors all kind of evolved together, balancing the next year after the previous year’s embarrassment. I remember thinking I was bold in choosing Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon because I really thought, in the end, that Ang Lee’s masterpiece would prevail. I was wrong and I looked stupid. I loved that movie, though. Tom O’Neil has famously made the wrong choices for Best Picture (Moulin Rouge!), and Scott Feinberg chose Juno to win Best Picture. Kris Tapley chose Letters from Iwo Jima. These are moments in Oscar predicting one learns from. Conversely, there have been some wild card predictions that did come true – Jeff Wells, David Carr and Ebert all predicted Crash to win. I had heard that it was possible Crash would upset and even wrote a few posts about it – the uproar was unmatched by anything since.
It is rare that the story doesn’t go as expected. Most of the time, the simplest explanation is the one that is carried through.
Except when it isn’t. We also all remember Crash, and Marcia Gay Harden, and Alan Arkin. And Marion Cotillard and Adrien Brody. My most proud moment as a predictor was when Halle Berry and Denzel Washington won the same year. I predicted it (along with a few others, like Ebert). The only other surprise pick I got right out of those I just mentioned was Marion Cotillard. Every single other one I got wrong. I am not someone who brags about how right I am all of the time. There are many out there who do – but I’m a self-doubter all the way down the line. Moreover, anyone who brags about being a good predictor is headed for a pie-in-the-face. Nobody knows anything.
Many fans use this theory to justify why they think the film they loved so much might win. There is always a possibility, especially this year with the preferential ballot and the ten nominees. We are all in the dark on Best Picture. It makes me nervous when people say it’s an easy call. It is most certainly NOT an easy call. Of course, we’ll never know how close the votes were since the Academy doesn’t release their voting information. And if Avatar wins we’ll never know whether it was going to win anyway, or if the LA Times’ smear campaign against The Hurt Locker actually ended up working. If it’s a surprise vote, like Inglourious Basterds or Precious, we’ll never know if the Chartier thing came into play or if these films were ahead all of the time.
We can’t know; we can only guess.
I spoke with Tapley last night about his thoughts on Oscar predicting and what he said was that he doesn’t necessarily look at history (although those things do come into play; the unprecedented amount of love for The Hurt Locker in the precursors cannot be denied – the DGA rule mostly holds) so much as he has developed, over the years, a clearer understanding of the tastes of the voters. This is mostly how he makes his picks. He doesn’t say “it’s the best so it will win.” He says stuff like “that has too much violence and traditionally they don’t vote for violent films in the foreign category.” He says, “it’s foreign and so most of them won’t seen it and they don’t usually pick black and white movies to win cinematography, or gritty war dramas to win either.”
But he isn’t cocky about it. Maybe he was at one time but he’s learned his lesson, as has Scott Feinberg that even if you think you have it all sewn up and that you’ve cracked the code and have predicted everything exactly right – you will fail in the 11th hour when surprises occur.
I rarely score higher than anyone in the game, not since my first year out of the gate. I am just too close to the race and too passionately involved in the films. Ahem. Nonetheless, my love for Pan’s Labyrinth (which was my Hurt Locker that year) helped me choose that film to win cinematography. I feel lucky when I get one of those right. It was a long shot call that paid off. It turned out that, despite what everyone thought about Pan’s, it was actually very popular within the Academy. Of course, it didn’t win foreign film because of the Lives of Others did, proving Tapley’s theory about their preference for traditional dramas in that category.
So, back to the question as to why we all predict the same -part of it is that no one wants to be left with their ass hanging out to dry. But also, there are certain “rules” that do always prove true — and sometimes it is just an obvious choice. Jeff Bridges won the Globe, then the Critics Choice, then the SAG. He only lost the BAFTA. He got standing ovations every time he won. He’s been everywhere, one of the campaign stars of the year and every time someone sticks a mic in his face he says something funny. How can he lose?
Sandra Bullock is the one who feels vulnerable for an upset to me, not because I don’t think she’ll win — from what I know about the race so far, she seems most likely. But because of the schadenfreude. The readers who are so invested in her not winning they will be happy that Meryl Streep won, but they will be attacking me for not knowing anything. And here I am saying it, and I’ve been saying it for ten years, NOBODY knows anything. We just make our best guesses based on history, on Academy tastes and on what everyone else is predicting. There is no magic formula for getting a perfect score.
I love nothing more than Academy upsets. I feel that there are upsets coming (but I always say that and they rarely do). We’ll just have to wait and see. But remember, if people are wrong it is probably better not to tease them about it, as some are inclined to do. You never know what year you’re going to be one with your ass hanging out. Of course, if you go consensus all the way down the line you will never be that person.
Hoyohoyo says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 6:59am
Alright, I’ll go by the stuff like “they always go for Holocaust movies”… “they always don’t award Meryl Streep”, and so Meryl Streep will lose. She did not really campaign for the Oscar, makes you think that she’s gracefully handing the Oscar trophy to Sandra Bullock, and that will only make her more likeable…
So why bother to shout for Meryl Streep?
David says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:10am
I definitely used to be #3, but have since kind of landed myself in a hopeless combination of #2 and #4 — using statistics to convince myself that any one of the nominees could come through. Talk about a mess, sometimes.
I do find that every now and then I can key into something that the Academy is feeling. This is usually when I get the opportunity to see almost all of the nominees. For instance, I predicted Alan Arkin and Marion Cotillard (admittedly, I didn’t see the Gay Harden one coming), but those two just seemed so right to me. I can’t explain how I predicted it, other than to say quite vaugely: “I had a feeling.”
I do tend to play the odds in most categories, but every now and then, I spring for a gut feeling if I can convince myself it is plausible. Sometimes it works out (Arkin, Cotillard), and sometimes it doesn’t (Aviator for Picture). That’s just how it goes, I guess.
alphajay says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:15am
Nice article, Sasha. I’m definitely the fourth kind, as I don’t watch movies as much as I used to. Of the ten BP nominees, I’ve seen only two (and they are not Avatar, THL, nor IB). So my predict for BP is The Hurt Locker. If Avatar wins, for me it’s an indication that BAFTA is less relevant as a precursor as much as the GGs have increased.
B-Square says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:25am
“So why bother to shout for Meryl Streep?”
Because she gave one of the best performance of the year? Something which Sandra Bullock did not?
Linkinfan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:31am
I’m really excited to see the show. This year has been brutal, so many things have happened. It felt like a war zone. After what has felt like an eternity, I’m ready to see who triumphs in the end!
adriana says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:33am
“Because she gave one of the best performance of the year? Something which Sandra Bullock did not?”
Did you skip this brilliant article? Guess you are a #3.
Clayton says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:45am
I’m a mix between #3 and #4. I can’t help championing The Last Tenants and Logorama, and predicting them, even though I think The Door and A Matter of Loaf and Death have a better chance of winning.
Jeremie says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:45am
I love this article. Very nostalgic and touching.
I don’t know if it is relevant here, but I just read Tapley’s note on late submissions ballots (apparently the biggest final day in history of Oscar), and I’m starting to think that some upsets might actually happen. I’m not a THL fan but I thought it would win film, director, editing, cinematography (and probably screenplay and sound mixing). I was convinced of that, I really was, I’d have bet on it, even if I was not really happy with it personnally. But after I read this Tapley’s article I’m all confused again. Did this ridiculous emailgate story really have any influence on voters? Is this late voting going to benefit Avatar ?
And then I also saw this report on the very aggressive late campaign for IB, with extra ads published on Tuesday and giving members PWC address and telling them they could deliver their ballot in person… There’s not doubt that Weinstein is trying desperately hard (especially with the new David star which has replaced now the Nazi sign in the title) but is that going to work? O’Neill is also saying that every member he talked to said that they ranked IB in one of their top three slots but, as he is predicting IB to win, I guess there is probably a lot of self-reassurance in that report.
It seems like the nobody knows anything motto has never been more true than this year. I can’t wait for Sunday night.
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:49am
Because she gave one of the best performance of the year? Something which Sandra Bullock did not?
I agree with you. I guess after all of these years and cheerleading to no avail I have become a bit cynical about it all. I do think Meryl not only gave the best performance this year, but to me she always gives the best performance.
Dude says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:49am
Is Bullock getting some norbit effect from the “All About Steve” Razzie Nod? If so, oh well, you all remember:).
Gregoire says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:55am
There will be ONE upset, guaranteed this year. If not, I will eat my great collection of hats. (I’ll keep on empty stomach that night just in case.)
– Neither Hurt Locker or Avatar win (most likely this means Inglourious Basterds wins)
– Colin Firth beats Jeff Bridges. Seems unlikely, but I can visualise it.
– Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock lose to either Carrie or Gabourey, ala Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day Lewis to Adrien Brody. This scenario would be all but guaranteed if it were just Carrie or Gabourey. They both may split the ‘fresh new talent’ vote and revert this to a Meryl/Sandra competition.
Dude says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:59am
@ Gregoire
Hell, I hope all three come through. The more upsets and shockers the better, I say. The movies awarded and nominated are not going change because of the award, so why not add a little spice and make it all upsets from top to bottom:). That would make my day.
Michael Parsons says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 7:59am
Great article Sasha.
I agree, it would be great to have a few upsets in the race on Sunday, but pleasing ones. A Gabby/Carey win would be a win for performance over popularity (which seems to be what the race between Bullock/Streep is).
Predicting these awards is always next to impossible (at least scoring a perfect 100%). I still remember the year where I saw EVERYTHING (including the shorts) and I failed miserably. Sometimes a little distance helps.
Douglas says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:00am
I guess I fall in the #3. I’ve been second guessing myself with quite a few if my picks. I’ve pegged Basterds for BP and Meryl Streep for BA, among others picks.
Bill S. says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:07am
It’s been a while since I took Statistics, but if you take the AD voting as a typical sample then Best Picture will probably come down to which film initially has the most Number 1′s. Through all the ballot trimming it remained IB-Hurt Locker-Avatar, with the spreads between them not changing much.
Of course, the trick is figuring out which one that will be!
unlikelyhood says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:12am
Nice piece. I hope I can stop thinking about Marion Cotillard on Sunday night if Sandra wins. Because the win 2 years ago was such vindication for us Oscar fans that are none of these five groups that you mention, us fans that just hope that the best performance of the year will be honored. Two years ago the Best Actress category proved that the Academy was paying attention, proved that they didn’t just go for the big hit (Page in Juno) or the sentimental (Christie in Away From Her).
Gahhh, I hate to see them throw that away this Sunday. I like Sandra as a person, I saw two of her movies this year in theatres. But there is just no f-ing way that’s the best perf of the year. People will say “It’s not about that” but it usually is about that and certainly was two years ago – I think you could make a case for every Best Actress win of the last 10 years being the best perf except of course Reese Witherspoon over Felicity Huffmann, that was ridiculous. I used to root for Meryl, now I am just rooting for anyone but Bullock. This isn’t hate for her, this is love for the Academy’s relative integrity.
Anessa says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:15am
I think I’m # 2 and 3 since I doubt myself alot and hope the underdog wins
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:23am
Michael, that’s so true. I find when I watch them I get way too involved in them. Like doc short. Now that I’ve seen all but The Truck, China’s Unnatural Disaster is the one I would have to predict because I thought it was so good. Aye, but there’s the rub.
Marble_Plum says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:24am
BAFTA’s still really relevant to me. They picked Alan Arkin! Marion Cotillard! Tilda Swinton! That’s why I still have a bit of faith for Carey Mulligan. Jeff Bridges is way too loved and overlooked to lose, but Sandra is about 65-70% safe. I do think someone raised a good point about Carey and Gabby splitting the newbie vote, but Carey could have more of an edge since BAFTA was presented at a crucial time and people may’ve paid more attention to her. I honestly don’t know.
I wouldn’t be surprised by an IB upset either. Sometimes the actor’s votes can do serious damage (Crash). Plus it’s Harvey.
Jesus Alonso says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:32am
If there are surprises, in my opinion…
- Basterds winning Picture, Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Supp. Actor. That could really happen.
- Gabby defeating BOTH Streep and Bullock. The Piano, all over again.
- Israel winning Foreign. The cathegory is always messed, and always expect a surprise by the movie everyone thinks in advance is the least likely ’cause it had the less precursor buzz… but somehow it manages to sneak in, it’s a movie every voter has to see, and therefore is the one that has the best chance to make impact on the viewer, as it probably surpases any initial expectation with ease. Last year it happened with “Departures”, remember?
Dominik says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:33am
I always like it when somebody takes a risk and predicts some surprises, no matter if he really believes it will happen or if he wants it to happen.
My experience in following the Oscar-race (since 1991) is that almost in every year there are happening surprises, but rarely in the top categories.
A “Crash”-shocker (or Juliette Binoche, or Roman Polanski – just to name the real BIG ones) is very seldom, especially in the top category.
So it doesn´t really make sense to go out on a limb and predict shockers just to feel original. Especially since this year feels to me like one of the easiest and most locked races in the past two decades.
The only category I strongly believe the main consensus is wrong (in the eight mayor categories), that´s the Best Actress-race. I´m not a huge Meryl Streep-fan, nor anti-Bullock, but I feel that Streep will win and that the consensus for a Bullock-win is falsy based on her SAG-prevail (Streep only lost that one because she won alreadey last year).
But I could be wrong, of course. It´s just a gut feeling!
Sasha Stone says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:34am
BAFTA’s still really relevant to me. They picked Alan Arkin! Marion Cotillard! Tilda Swinton! That’s why I still have a bit of faith for Carey Mulligan.
Interesting. Wonder if it will come true.
B-Square says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:39am
Sasha, I guess the fact that she always give the best performance is also a double-edge sword. The AMPAS will probably think that she will turn in many more great performances, and they will have another chance to award her for the 3rd time.
I presume that’s the consensus floating around the AMPAS Camp for the last decade. It’s plain wrong if you ask me, they should award the best performance of the year regardless, but I guess that’s just not the world we live in.
Jesse says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:44am
I believe that the only way a front runner like sandra bullock who has one every major precursor award can lose is if they don’t like you — and I don’t see, other than bloggers on here, who have worked with her and don’t like her — like say Eddie Murphy (or Lauren Bacall)– who notoriously lost for dreamgirls to alan arkin.
Academy members like to pick the younger actress for best actress and the older actor for best actor — but I don’t see an Oscar winning performance in Carey Mulligan — i do in the future, but not for An education, which was a major disappointment and with all the praise heaped up on her — it’s like == why again was she nominated?
It’s disappointing that as much love as they have the hurt locker, that jeremy renner is not gonna win best actor, I hope he does — he is the reason to love the hurt locker — say what you will about the movie but the movie does not work without him in the lead.
I wonder if Academy voters are not interested in awarding a female for best director. I have to wonder if she was kinda not beautiful if she would still win. Not to take away from her talents, but there is a bias there against female directors.
Bruce says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 8:45am
If there is a steal in the acting categoris I have a very strage feeling (not saying she deserves it) but Maggie pulling a Marcia Gay Harden/Tilda Swinton for Best Supporting Actress!
Alfred says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:02am
Basically I’m type 3, except when there’s a film I really want to win, then i’m type 3. But I really wanna be type 5, though those people sometimes opt for rare choices just for he sake of it, to be risky and get sthing right that no one else did. Sometimes it works. It is very tempting to predict IB for best picture now to claim a victory in the end. It felt so good for me when I called Crash. This year I’m type 2 and 3 and go with THL. If it wins we can all say that it was easy. It’s never easy. An Avatar win would piss me off right now.
Shannon says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:12am
I’m definitely somewhere between two and four. In fact, I will probably have to tune out on all the chatter from the next few days so that I don’t end up changing all my picks again. Even the ones that seem like sure things I start to doubt, and say “what if…” And it’s worse this year that I’ve followed the race so closely.
Still, I’ve never been very emotionally invested in the outcome, and it’s no different this year. I like what I like, and if the Academy doesn’t, I shrug and move on. Every once in a while something will come along and I think, “How can they not recognize that?” But in the end, everyone likes different things and I have no trouble accepting that, so while I might be disappointed, I don’t really get worked up about it. And I never let it interfere with my predictions.
No, I just like to be right, so all the stress of Oscar predicting comes from the fact that I might guess wrong. Since I can’t be right about what’s “best” – it’s all a matter of opinion, or there would be such passionate debates about the films and their relative merits – I desperately crave to be right about who and what will win.
Yeah, I’m really competitive and a very sore loser.
Edited to add: I WISH I could be type five, but that will never happen. I might think I have a sense of what the Academy will like or not, but it’s really just a sense. It’s not based on anything other than intuition – which is sometimes helpful but often is not – unlike those names you mention, who back it up with substance and knowledge. I have some knowledge, but I certainly don’t have the pulse of the Academy, because I don’t know anyone in the Academy.
Pierre de Plume says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:23am
Sasha, I’m glad you’ve taken the time to characterize the various basic types of predictors. People so often become confused when others present arguments for why a particular nominee will win as opposed to should win.
We’ve become accustomed to viewing the Academy’s collective taste in a stereotypical way (e.g., “They always vote for the holocaust film”) yet Academy membership is increasingly assuming the characteristics of an international body. That said, the more things change the more they stay the same.
One person I know always has always seemed to get the most predictions correct. He’s a guy who whose interest in filmgoing is quite superficial. Ten minutes before the Oscarcast begins, he sits down, with a drink in his hand, and marks his ballot choices with a flourish, each time providing rationale in 10 words or less from his assumed perspective of a “typical” voter. Without fail, each year he gets most of them right — without having seen most of the films.
The best bet remains to be following the precursors. Beyond that, I like to make at least one atypical choice each year. This year that choice is cinematography for The White Ribbon — just because it’s fun to go out on a limb.
Cameron says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:26am
“The Oscars are a Drug”
’nuff said
Dan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:34am
Oh for crying out loud, for a second I thought AMPAS had slapped itself, decided it was ridiculous for not Let(ting) the Right One In, yet another superb film it entirely ignored, and had come up with some way to mention it. But it was just you. Argh.
ML says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:35am
I don’t know when Kris Tapley earned Great Predictor status. Last year he correctly predicted Departures, and that was an excellent call. I think he also got Marion Cotillard right, and Tilda but I’m not sure.
But I also remember him predicting Letters from Iwo Jima to win Best Picture, and had The Departed at #4. It was a really close race, but everyone knew The Departed would be at least in the top 3. And it ended up winning. He also said at the beginning of the 2007 that it was the year people would stop paying attention to critics… And which films ended up dominating the Oscars? No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood.
My point is that every year has its own tendencies and it’s hard for pundits to keep perfect scores each year… I guess Karger is really really good. But Kris, just like Sasha and Nathaniel and many others, have made good calls and bad calls. I guess the only “pundit” I don’t really like is Tom O’Neil who each year predicts upsets just for the sake of it…
enochemery says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:38am
Thanks for this, Sasha. There is no doubt that Oscar prognosticating has gotten more sophisticated over the past ten years. I can remember when 14 out of 24 would win an Oscar party — now it takes 18, 19, 20, or more.
My personal frustration with the “prediction industry” is that pundits tend to forget that, in most pools, all categories are equally important. I wish we had more analysis of the shorts and other “minor” categories. Nowadays you tend to win by nailing these. More attention to those categories is probably the only direction left for prognosticators as we all get more sophisticated.
Jeremie says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 9:50am
I guess the only “pundit” I don’t really like is Tom O’Neil who each year predicts upsets just for the sake of it…
O’Neil predicted 21 out of 24 last year (best score of the Oscar Pundits, with Tapley. He missed Doc, sound mixing, and Best short doc), and 39 out of 45 nominations for the main 8 categories this year. Not too bad IMO.
filmboymichael says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 10:01am
sigh…I’m a number 3 – I suppose if i were a cartoon character, I’d be Eyore….
sigh….
Bob Burns says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 11:12am
Foreign Language is going to be the category where everyone loses points this year…. as usual I guess.
A Director/BP split would be fine with me. It should be more common as far as I am concerned…. otherwise just fold the categories together…. make room for an ensemble or stunt award.
Calling a stand alone Director Oscar to Bigelow a consolation prize does her no favors…. in fact, it does not do anything worthwhile for anyone.
Glenn says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 11:36am
I too see BAFTA as the big precursor – although there is a slight difference this year in that Sandra was not eligible, so the Brits had no opportunity to even consider her. I do think if there is an upset it could be Actor …. I know Bridges has the sentimental flow but he really wasn’t on the radar during “critics season” ….. so wouldn’t be surprised for an upset there. But then neither was Sandra.
Great article Sasha. Think it was me asking earlier in the week where you guys got your information and heat from – YAY!!!! I tend to rely on a few bloggers on the net to feel the heat – but your new chart gives an overwhelming sense of what probably is going to happen!
Glenn says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 12:19pm
Sasha wrote – I do think Meryl not only gave the best performance this year, but to me she always gives the best performance.
And I think this is where exactly she comes unstuck. She is always at the top of the game and people simply think “surely we can’t give her another, we need to spread the wealth”. And the Academy do embrace spreading the wealth.
Sonja says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 12:28pm
Glenn, I agree, but then the academy needs to spread the wealth to Sidibe, not to Bullock. *sigh*
Why do they nominate Meryl every time? Because it’s some kind of “cool”?
Shell says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:07pm
I go through different phases in predicting too. And I’m someone who did predict Marisa Tomei the year she won, and Marion and Tilda’s wins. On the other hand, I missed the Shakespeare In Love and Crash upsets, which I just didn’t see. Other upsets I had a feeling about, but self-doubt didn’t let me pick them. This year is new territory with 10 Best Picture nominees and the preferential ballot.
Everything would seem to say The Hurt Locker will win, but I still have a nagging doubt. I think the academy could go for a compromise pick with a little more box office, not Avatar.
I also think Sandra Bullock is vunerable. I have a strong feeling about Gabby, we’ll see.
MichaelP says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:08pm
Same thing every year. Seldom do the Oscars pick who really deserves the award. “Can’t give it to her she already has two…this one has never been nominated..etc”
I wish Oscar people would truly pick winners based on the work.
Example: All 4 actress with Bullock are all so deserving before her. She was good..but to win over the other 4 performances..that is my point.
Afrika says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:43pm
Meryl is going to win. She has more support among AMPAS voters than the public realizes.
Afrika says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:44pm
Does everyone have the same problem of retyping their name and e-mail everytime they want to post a comment? or is it just me?
GFH says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:46pm
No Afrika, I had the same problem earlier today.
Sertan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 1:53pm
Afrika,
I am having the same problem…I need to retype my name and email everytime
Afrika says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:08pm
Sertan and GFH
Thanks guys, I thought I was the only one having that problem. I was worried my laptop might have crashed again haha.
Ryan Adams says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:33pm
I am having the same problem…I need to retype my name and email everytime
I’m going to try changing a setting.
somebody tell me if it’s better or worse.
Ryan Adams says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:43pm
“Can’t give it to her she already has two…this one has never been nominated..etc”
I wish Oscar people would truly pick winners based on the work.
exactly, MichaelP. Thank you.
What if the Academy adhered to the “only two” rule for Edith Head and Walt Disney. Best is best is best.
Sertan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:55pm
Ryan,
I think you solved the problem! at least for me..Thanks
Sertan says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 2:59pm
This is what Tom Charity predicts on CNN.com (I dont know who he is but they let him write a full page on cnn.com)
“No offense to Bullock, who’s irresistible if you like that kind of thing, but if the Academy sends Streep away empty-handed for the 12th time straight (she hasn’t won since 1982′s “Sophie’s Choice”), next time, she’s going to show up with a firearm under her robe.”
Shell says:
Friday, March 5, 2010 at 3:02pm
What if the Academy adhered to the “only two” rule for Edith Head and Walt Disney. Best is best is best.
ITA!
And the problems seems to be solved for me too.