Winter’s Bone is a film that is coming on very strong here in the critics phase. I like how Guy Lodge is the only one predicting it to win the LA Film Critics over at Gold Derby. I think that is a spot-on prediction, and if I wasn’t already married to the idea that Toy Story 3 would win that prize I’d switch it to Winter’s Bone.¬† You can check them out for yourself. What I wonder is how much predictions themselves can influence a vote. I’ve always wondered that. If someone said to you they knew you would vote for The Social Network as the best film of 2010, would you want to prove them wrong? Or would you agree that, yes, you can’t deny that plain fact and cast your vote accordingly. Do you vote for what you love even if it’s so far off the charts it will ultimately count as a throw-away vote? Or do you cast your vote for a film you know has a good chance of winning? Ah, the nature of we humans and how we vote. I do not know the answer to this one. But I do know that no one likes being a foregone conclusion; no one particularly likes being predictable.
We are all eagerly awaiting the left and right coasts ringing in, along with the National Society. We will be running our own predictions some time today, or tomorrow. But so far, here is how many a folk believe the Best Picture races will go down:
LOS ANGELES FILM CRITICS ASSN.
BEST PICTURE
“The Social Network” ‚Äì Davis, Feinberg, Rogers, Simanton, Tapley, Walton, Wloszczyna
“Toy Story 3” ‚Äì Hammond, Musto, O’Neil, Stone
“Black Swan” or “Social Network” ‚Äì Wells
“Winter’s Bone” — Lodge
NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE
BEST PICTURE
“Black Swan” — Simanton
“The King’s Speech” ‚Äì Wloszczyna
“The Social Network” ‚Äì Davis, Feinberg, Hammond, Lodge, Musto, O’Neil, Rogers, Stone, Tapley, Walton
“The Social Network” or “Black Swan” ‚Äì Wells
Head on over to Gold Derby for the rest.