The Social Network will get its first real challenge with the preferential ballot at Saturday night’s PGA awards. Up until now, it has not lost a single major award it has been up for. Inception has won a few critics awards, Black Swan won Austin, but other than that, The Social Network is to this year’s Oscar race what Secretariat was to the Belmont Stakes the year he not only won the Triple Crown, but finished by 25 lengths in the final race.
If the Oscars were a horse race, that is, which they aren’t.
Last year, the Producers Guild went 8 for 10 with the Oscars for identical Best Picture nominations. Last year, we assumed at the time that the preferential balloting was the reason for this and that Avatar would have won in a weighted ballot scenario. Will that logic work against The Social Network this year? Would a weighted ballot give The Social Network a better chance at a win? Or can it still win under the preferential balloting? If it’s mildly close at all, as in – The Social Network does not come in at number one for the first round, another film could win. Black Swan, or maybe Inception, or maybe The Fighter. It’s hard to say — we still don’t know if we’re looking at an out and out sweep (like Slumdog) or a mix n’ match, like Crash v. Brokeback.
The PGA, according to their website, has around 4,000 members. That’s a fairly good amount. The DGA has around 13,000 by contrast. The AMPAS has around 6,000. They’re right between the PGA and the DGA. The SAG is gigantic by comparison to these, with 139,200 members.
With 4,000 ballots, ten nominees and a preferential ballot, you get as close as anyone to the Oscar scenario. The main difference being that the AMPAS are a slightly more exclusive group (“Exclusivity, right?”). The PGA is probably a tad more rebellious, one might think. Nonetheless, I think you’d have to be willing to bet on the long shot that any other film can win this except The Social Network. It’s possible, of course. Always.
Craig Hamilton has done some research and provides some useful stats about the PGA:
The PGA and the Academy have matched 15 out of the 21 years that the PGA has been in existence. That is a 71% match rate for wins. That’s really not that great, but it can still tell us a lot. For the last 3 years, the PGA and Oscar winners have matched exactly, but the 3 years before that, they did not match.
Indeed, there is just never any telling how things will go until you’re in the thick of it. It looks like The Social Network can’t be stopped but things can always turn on a dime with the Oscar race. Going for it, of course, is that it is produced by, among others, Scott Rudin. Not only has Rudin ushered in both True Grit and The Social Network but he’s also being honored with the David O. Selznick award that same evening. So, it’s possible Rudin will not win — and that another film will take it. Safe money, though, is on The Social Network.
If The Social Network does NOT win, I can’t see any movie other than Black Swan taking it. Maybe The Fighter.
For animated feature – Toy Story wins it in a walk. For documentary, one might think it’s between Inside Job and Waiting for Superman, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say The Tillman Story wins here. The producers aren’t as snobby as the AMPAS members when it comes to doc, so I’m going to bet that their heart gets involved and Tillman wins in a shocker. But the safe money is on Superman or Inside Job.
Here are this year’s nominees:
127 HOURS
Producers: Danny Boyle, Christian Colson
BLACK SWAN
Producers: Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver
INCEPTION
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas
THE FIGHTER
Producers: David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Producers: Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray
THE KING’S SPEECH
Producers: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Producers: Dana Brunetti, Ce√°n Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin
THE TOWN
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Graham King
TOY STORY 3
Producer: Darla K. Anderson
TRUE GRIT
Producers: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
DESPICABLE ME
Producers: John Cohen, Janet Healy, Christopher Meledandri
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
Producer: Bonnie Arnold
TOY STORY 3
Producer: Darla K. Anderson
Special Note: The PGA already announced the nominations for the Award for
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures on December 2010;
the list below includes producer credits.
The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:
CLIENT 9: THE RISE AND FALL OF ELIOT SPITZER
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination
EARTH MADE OF GLASS
Producers: Reid Carolin, Deborah Scranton
INSIDE JOB
Producers: Charles Ferguson, Audrey Marrs
SMASH HIS CAMERA
Producers: Linda Saffire, Adam Schlesinger
THE TILLMAN STORY
Producer: John Battsek
WAITING FOR ‘SUPERMAN’
Producer: Lesley Chilcott
And the charts…
Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar
2009
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
Avatar | Avatar |
District 9 | District 9 |
Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds |
Invictus | A Serious Man |
Precious | Precious |
Star Trek | The Blind Side |
Up | Up |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air |
2008
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
Milk | Milk |
The Dark Knight | The Reader |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
2007
There Will Be Blood | There Will Be Blood |
Juno | Juno |
Diving Bell and Butterfly | Atonement |
No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
Michael Clayton | Michael Clayton |
2006
Babel | Babel |
The Departed | The Departed |
Dreamgirls | Letters from Iwo Jima |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
The Queen | The Queen |
2005
Crash | Crash |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain |
Capote | Capote |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night, and Good Luck |
Walk the Line | Munich |
2004
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
The Aviator | The Aviator |
Sideways | Sideways |
The Incredibles | Ray |
2003
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit |
Mystic River | Mystic River |
Master and Commander | Master and Commander |
ROTK | ROTK |
The Last Samurai | Lost in Translation |
Cold Mountain |
2002
Adaptation | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York |
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | The Hours |
Road to Perdition |
2001
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings | The Lord of the Rings |
Harry Potter | Gosford Park |
Moulin Rouge | Moulin Rouge |
Shrek | In the Bedroom |
2000
Gladiator | Gladiator |
Almost Famous | Traffic |
Erin Brockovich* | Erin Brockovich |
Billy Elliot | Chocolat |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
1999
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules |
American Beauty | American Beauty |
The Insider | The Insider |
Being John Malkovich | The Green Mile |
The Hurricane | The Sixth Sense |
1998
Life Is Beautiful | Life Is Beautiful |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakespeare In Love |
Gods and Monsters | The Thin Red Line |
Waking Ned Devine | Elizabeth |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan |
1997
Titanic | Titanic |
Amistad | The Full Monty |
L. A. Confidential | L. A. Confidential |
As Good As It Gets | As Good as it Gets |
for Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting |
1996
Fargo | Fargo |
Shine | Shine |
Hamlet | Secrets & Lies |
The People vs. Larry Flynt | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient |
1995
Leaving Las Vegas | Babe |
Dead Man Walking | Braveheart |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility |
Il Postino | Il Postino |
The Bridges of Madison County | |
The American President |
1994
EXACT MATCH
Four Weddings and a Funeral | Four Weddings and a Funeral |
Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
Quiz Show | Quiz Show |
Pulp Fiction | Pulp Fiction |
The Shawshank Redemption | The Shawshank Redemption |
1993
EXACT MATCH
The Fugitive | The Fugitive |
Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
The Remains Of the Day | The Remains Of the Day |
The Piano | The Piano |
In the Name Of the Father | In the Name Of the Father |
1992
A Few Good Men | A Few Good Men |
The Crying Game | The Crying Game |
Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
Scent Of a Woman | Scent Of a Woman |
Howards End | Howards End |
1991
The Silence Of the Lambs |
The Silence Of the Lambs |
1990
Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves |
1989
Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy |