As we head into the heat of Oscar season, it’s time to take the temperature of what’s happening in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories. As usual, the Big Oscar Movies are all male driven stories with themes, central characters and actors. There are a few female performances, though, that stand out amid all of the testosterone. In the indie world, there are many more female driven films though, as we know, they usually hit the Spirit Awards more than the Oscars. But here is a semi sloppy rundown of the names currently on my radar. I’m sure there are many more lurking out there that we haven’t yet heard of. Most of the ones listed here, except a few, haven’t even been seen – so it’s spitballing at its most pointless. Nonetheless, we forge ahead, don’t we. Herewith, AwardsDaily’s 25 performances to watch in 2011.
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
16 Oscar nominations, 2 wins. If there could be a template for what the Academy responds to it’s the work done by Meryl Streep. Her natural curiosity about people, intelligence, education, sense of humor and willingness to maintain her natural age (helped by great bone structure) all contribute to her status as reigning queen. Since she hasn’t won an Oscar since 1983, focus is often paid to her being overdue. Because she’s so consistently good, there rarely seems to be an urgent need to reward her. Besides which, how do you top Sophie’s Choice? Streep has to be better than her best performance to win. Either that, or have starred in the year’s best picture. Streep has not starred in a Best Pic winner since Kramer vs. Kramer. It is an easy guess, though, to expect her to be every bit the actress she’s always been in The Iron Lady.
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Talk about your overdue actress – only a couple of times has Close been seriously considered for an Oscar win – Fatal Attraction – she lost to Cher for Moonstruck. Cher was fine and all but it was more about who she was, how weird she was, how she dressed and how different she looked in the film compared to real life. But Glenn Close deserved to win for that part. Okay, so maybe she wasn’t “pretty” in the part but homegirl got down and dirty and went for it, creating one of the best characters ever put to screen. She came close again for Dangerous Liaisons, lost to Jodie Foster for The Accused. It’s difficult to argue with that choice. Close wasn’t even nominated for her absolutely unforgettable performance in Reversal of Fortune – one of the dumbest moves the Academy has ever made. You can see the Oscar machine in motion that year, as Close wasn’t recognized by of the critics groups either. The supporting actresses that year were Whoopi Goldberg for Ghost (the winner), Annette Bening for The Grifters (who should have won), Lorraine Bracco for Goodfellas (who should have been lead), Diane Ladd for Wild at Heart, Mary McDonnell for Dances with Wolves. I probably would have dumped Ladd (who was pretty great) for Close. Either way, Glenn Close seemed destined to never win an Oscar, like Michelle Pfeiffer. Or else win one finally in her golden years. But Albert Nobbs could be that movie that finally puts her over the top.
Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Jessica Chastain, Emma Stone in The Help
As usual, most of the films heading into the race are male-driven stories. But The Help is one of the few that revolves around women. The film is being talked about in good and bad ways, but many women are talking about how good it is. The only one of these women who is overdue is Viola Davis. No one yet knows if she will be lead or supporting. Put her in lead and she won’t win. But she might win in Supporting.
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk about Kevin
What a turn by Swinton in this movie. Will it be too ugly and difficult for Oscar voters? They clearly love Swinton as they gave her an undeserved win for Michael Clayton.
And the rest:
Keira Knightley in A Dangerous Method
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn, Take This Waltz
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud/Incredible Close
Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in Carnage
Rooney Mara, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Macy May Marlene
Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
Andrea Riseborough/Abbie Cornish in W.E.
Rebecca Hall, The Awakening
Rachel Weisz, The Whistleblower and The Deep Blue Sea
Carey Mulligan in Drive
Jane Fonda, Peace, Love and Misunderstanding
Nicole Kidman in Trespass
Mira Sorvino, Tammy Blanchard in Union Square
If I had to spitball five contenders right now (mostly an impossible and futile exercise), I’d go with:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams (my week with Marilyn)
Viola Davis if she goes lead, or Rooney Mara if she doesn’t.
One to watch: Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Macy May Marlene – it’s a really strange film but her beauty mixed with her being an Olsen sister mixed with her performance could be enough to push her into contention.
Supporting – a tougher category to call at the moment, but I’d say:
Viola Davis for The Help (for the win, if she’s nominated in this category)
Octavia Spencer for The Help
Sandra Bullock for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Carey Mulligan in Drive
Andrea Riseborough in W.E.
I’m sure these are way, way off and that you all will have a much better idea of the whos, the whats and the wheres. But this should get the ball rolling.