The ongoing and ever-increasing fascination with the Oscar race has shifted the way movies are consumed, appreciated, written about and remembered. I started Oscar watching 13 years ago. The game was played then almost exactly as it’s played now. The only thing that has changed is the level of interest. Even now, for those of us in the business of this trying to explain it to the outside world will attract those telltale looks of pity and mild confusion. But if you see any movie with a crowd you’ll often hear those very same people saying things like “he’ll win the Oscar.” We still see the Oscars as the gold standard, for better or worse. We who study them year in and year out know that there is a disconnect between how the Oscars are perceived and how they actually go down. After all, they are simply given a ballot and told to vote for what they like. Critics are the ones responsible for how films really go down in history; not the Academy. Nonetheless, when an Oscar nominee or winner dies, that is usually the first thing on their obit. Unless that person is Al Gore. Who didn’t technically win an Oscar anyway. But who’s counting.
Back in the early days there were two major film festivals: Cannes and Toronto. No one really thought much about the others in terms of how they might influence the Oscars. The Palme d’Or held some weight in and of itself – it still does. But Cannes was disregarded as being too lofty, too auteur-focused, not commercial enough for the American Oscar race.
Toronto, though, it had a foothold on Oscar early on. There was a brief moment there when it was all about Toronto. A movie could be launched there and the buzz would last clear on through Oscar season. But something shifted. Bloggers happened. Movies that did well there might not have enough stuff to last. Moreover, a film could be taken out of the race completely, which is what what happened last year to Clint Eastwood’s Hereafter, and what has happened this year with Madonna’s W.E. (which got the boot in Venice).
To that end, for the heavy hitters, running the festival circuit becomes more and more risky, what with Twitter and instablogging where the requirement is insta-opinion. There is no time to ruminate on anything – it’s just good/bad, thumbs up/thumbs down, winner/loser, Oscar contender/non-Oscar contender – and all that really means in the end is that the film or actor will do well with the 6,000 or so who vote at the end of the year. It means nothing beyond that. The Oscars are and will always be a moment in time captured, with little regard to how well that win will sit over time. The Oscars are not about Ms. Right, but about Ms. Right Now.
In the early days, a critic would get credentialed to cover the fests. You’d maybe see one or two early reviews of a film but mostly you’d read them when the movie was about to open. This, for two reasons – the first was that the author of the review, and the outlet, might not have had much interest in a movie that wasn’t going to open for months. The second reason was that the studios simply had more control then.
Now, though, any film that plays at a festival is subject to reviews by bloggers and critics. Even a film that has an embargo set can see that embargoed broken with a terrible review months before it opens to the public. Now, unless you have Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, or The Artist you can’t, in all good conscience, take that risk, not for the Oscar race, not if you hope to profit from your film’s opening weekend.
The festivals work better for smaller films looking for a boost. This worked very well with Steve McQueen’s Shame, which would have gotten buried had it skipped the festivals. It also worked well for Alexander Payne and The Descendants, which made the wise choice to debut in Telluride where there is a much smaller pool of bloggers and therefore a situation that’s slightly easier to control. Toronto, by now, is unwieldy – there are simply too many people covering things there. But Telluride still gives a film a chance to break through. Of course, this can be good and bad.
When I was at Telluride, word got out that maybe Jason Reitman was there. Would he be bringing Young Adult, everyone wondered? The answer was a resounding no. Even though Reitman had brought every one one of his films to Telluride to preem, he had been soured on the whole experience, so it goes, once Up in the Air hit the skids winning zero Oscars. It seemed a personal and painful loss to have won all of the writing awards up to the Oscars but then losing, in the final act, to Geoffrey Fletcher for Precious. It was one of the most surprising Oscar defeats in recent memory and there were a few reasons for it but at the top of the list was the film’s peaking way too soon. By the time Up in the Air finally hit theaters it had already been talked about and talked about – there was nothing left.
And so, it is with this paradigm that the race –despite the success of The King’s Speech at Telluride and Toronto last year — is holding all of its biggest players until the post-fest season. One can’t argue with this decision in the least bit. You don’t go to the fests to build buzz unless you have to or you might find yourself selected out before the race even begins. And damnit, you can’t put that genie back in the bottle.
It is a beast you can’t tame, this internet thing. Publicists and studios now proceed with caution. Oscar strategists have had to make friendly with the beast because otherwise, forget it. There is a strategy of skipping the blogs entirely, going right to audiences and/or mainstream press. That works for films that don’t need the chatter to push them — movies like The Blind Side and The Help. But for the most part, this is the new normal, this whole internet thing. And it ain’t going away any time soon. So, what’s an Oscar campaign to do? We wait, we wait.
The next thing that’s going to happen is that the films will start to roll out. A select few will be chosen to screen these films in most cases — I’ll probably get an invite or two if I’m lucky. This will test the waters. A few first impressions will give the studio an idea where the film is headed, internet support-wise. That won’t necessarily help with the mainstream critics, who sit way outside the blog/studio relationship, but if the film is outright bad, they’ll know.
I personally think Hereafter would have done a lot better last year had it skipped Toronto where it bombed out and gone directly through the blogs in November-ish. There is a moment there where buzz can propel a film forth, even if it’s not been seen yet by the majority – Gangs of New York is one example. But the case could made for Benjamin Button, which was pushed blog-heavy before it started getting reviewed. Avatar and True Grit, I do believe, followed a similar pattern. I am not smart enough to know if any of this was intentional or if it worked as planned. What I do know is that if your movie grinds to a halt in Toronto you have nowhere to go from there.
Reitman’s decision not to put Young Adult through its film festival paces only to see it flatline come Oscar time seems to have been a good choice. Clint Eastwood’s decision to hold off on the festivals for J. Edgar also seems like a good choice, and War Horse and Extremely Loud and We Bought a Zoo and all of the other movies we’re all waiting to see. But it does put we Oscar predictors in an uncomfortable place: we’re now taking a wild guess as to which movies will advance to dominate the race. When it comes to picking movies no one has seen the game is at its most risky.
So you might wonder where’s the harm? Predicting winners and nominees sight unseen does two things. The first thing it does is set the film up for unrealistically high expectations. Not only does it have to be good but it has to be better than everything else. The second thing it does is make Oscar predicting seem totally pointless, which it may be anyway. Where is the skill in predicting something based on pedigree, subject matter and studio? Anyone can spit in the wind and get lucky.
The two films that are in the hot seat sight unseen are Clint Eastwood’s J Edgar, Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo, and Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close.
Until these films are seen, my friends, no one can accurately or reliably predict the Oscar race. Up until that point it is just like throwing dice. Even the films that have been seen but haven’t yet been released or screened for the Academy are not sure bets. Don’t be fooled by the overly confident Oscar bloggers making predictions left and right – this is still very much an open table where any movie can break in if it’s got enough number 1 votes.
Right now, as we keep saying, the playing field looks pretty good for:
The Artist
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Help
And then the second tier of hopefuls
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Drive
Moneyball
Shame
Totally off the charts but not writing them off:
Attack the Block
Tree of Life
We Need to Talk About Kevin
And the ones everyone has high hopes for sight unseen:
J Edgar
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
War Horse
We Bought a Zoo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I realize I am alone in many of these. We like to play this game, many of us, as if there is some cold, calculating logic to what amounts to matters of the heart. We play the game anyway, despite it all. To my mind, thinking conventionally is about the most boring thing you can do where art is concerned. So I tend to stir the pot continually. I hope you won’t mind too much.
What I’ll be looking for this year are what kinds of currents run through the popular Oscar movies because that is often how our time and place is reflected back at us. The Oscar race is at its most compelling when it celebrates films that say something new, that thrill us and move us in unexpected ways, no matter what genre they’re in or how much money they made. And when they do that we, in turn, celebrate them.
Harry Potter and the bla bla bla Part 2? As best picture? Seriously? It was no better and no worse than the previous three lackluster episodes. And no, it doesn’t fit in the LOTR slot. None of the previous films were nommmed for pic, both initial LOTR films were. Potter is out and not coming back in.
Only way that will happen is if 250+ academy members worked on the film and were contractually obligated to vote for it. … Hmmm… Considering there’s about a billion people on the credits that might actually happen… Damn…
Harry Potter and the bla bla bla Part 2? As best picture? Seriously? It was no better and no worse than the previous three lackluster episodes. And no, it doesn’t fit in the LOTR slot. None of the previous films were nommmed for pic, both initial LOTR films were. Potter is out and not coming back in.
Only way that will happen is if 250+ academy members worked on the film and were contractually obligated to vote for it. … Hmmm… Considering there’s about a billion people on the credits that might actually happen… Damn…
Even though it’s a very Oscar-type film, I don’t see The Help getting nominated. It’s not had outstanding reviews and by the time the Oscars comes around it’s gonna be behind alot of other films as far as buzz goes.
At the moment I like Moneyball, The Artist, The Descendants and Shame for oscar nominations. With Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Young Adult, War Horse(puke) and maybe J Edgar as the potentials to come.
What do I know though. I only correctly predicted the exact 10 last year on this very comment section 😛
No, but seriously I did lol
Even though it’s a very Oscar-type film, I don’t see The Help getting nominated. It’s not had outstanding reviews and by the time the Oscars comes around it’s gonna be behind alot of other films as far as buzz goes.
At the moment I like Moneyball, The Artist, The Descendants and Shame for oscar nominations. With Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Young Adult, War Horse(puke) and maybe J Edgar as the potentials to come.
What do I know though. I only correctly predicted the exact 10 last year on this very comment section 😛
No, but seriously I did lol
We’re doubting Midnight in Paris because
1. Early release
2. Relatively lightweight
3. It’s essentially a romantic comedy. Woody Allen or not, Oscar doesn’t nominate them for Best Picture anymore.
The box office would mean something if it grossed 100mil+
But it didn’t, so it means very little.
We’re doubting Midnight in Paris because
1. Early release
2. Relatively lightweight
3. It’s essentially a romantic comedy. Woody Allen or not, Oscar doesn’t nominate them for Best Picture anymore.
The box office would mean something if it grossed 100mil+
But it didn’t, so it means very little.
Why are we all trying to shortchange Midnight In Paris? It’s a lock at this point, for all the reasons Sasha just commented on: 1.) It’s Woody Allen’s highest grossing film EVER, and 2.) It’s the best movie he’s made since Everybody Says I Love You. He’s in.
Why are we all trying to shortchange Midnight In Paris? It’s a lock at this point, for all the reasons Sasha just commented on: 1.) It’s Woody Allen’s highest grossing film EVER, and 2.) It’s the best movie he’s made since Everybody Says I Love You. He’s in.
For the moment (with many unseen):
1. J Edgar
2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. The Descendants
4. War Horse
5. The Help
6. The Iron Lady
7. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
8. A Dangerous Method
9. MoneyBall (Columbia Sony)
Possiblities: The Artist, Young Adult, The Ides of March, Midnight in Paris, Carnage,
Shame, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, We Bought a Zoo
I’m sad that with its poor box office, at the moment Warrior seems to have as many chances as Bucky Larson to get nominated 🙁 I hope the great word of mouth helps it pick up some momentum…
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
7. The Artist
8. Moneyball
9. We Bought a Zoo
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
For the moment (with many unseen):
1. J Edgar
2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. The Descendants
4. War Horse
5. The Help
6. The Iron Lady
7. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
8. A Dangerous Method
9. MoneyBall (Columbia Sony)
Possiblities: The Artist, Young Adult, The Ides of March, Midnight in Paris, Carnage,
Shame, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, We Bought a Zoo
I’m sad that with its poor box office, at the moment Warrior seems to have as many chances as Bucky Larson to get nominated 🙁 I hope the great word of mouth helps it pick up some momentum…
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
7. The Artist
8. Moneyball
9. We Bought a Zoo
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
count me in, anyways to the ones that think Attack the Block has a better chance than Midnight in Paris and Super 8, combined, to make the cut for BP. And still won’t make it (even thought I’d love it).
count me in, anyways to the ones that think Attack the Block has a better chance than Midnight in Paris and Super 8, combined, to make the cut for BP. And still won’t make it (even thought I’d love it).
I’m not going to gainsay the overall wisdom that “if your movie grinds to a halt in Toronto you have nowhere to go from there,” but I do want to throw Crash into the conversation at least a little bit. I realize that 2004 was ages ago in terms of the internet, but that was still an instance of a film that didn’t light up the boards when it came to Toronto, but that was reset with an off-season release and a patient Oscar campaign. The Hurt Locker, too, was a film that was well-regarded in Venice, but not the talk of the festival, yet which also gained a second life when the film’s handlers held it back a grade.
It seems as though some (not all) films can counter or ignore an unfavorable festival reaction, if they’re willing to play the waiting game. Maybe for a super high-profile film this isn’t an option, but I think it’s worth noting that two of our most recent festival-debuting Best Picture winners were emphatically NOT anointed as Oscar frontrunners in the festival circuit.
I’m not going to gainsay the overall wisdom that “if your movie grinds to a halt in Toronto you have nowhere to go from there,” but I do want to throw Crash into the conversation at least a little bit. I realize that 2004 was ages ago in terms of the internet, but that was still an instance of a film that didn’t light up the boards when it came to Toronto, but that was reset with an off-season release and a patient Oscar campaign. The Hurt Locker, too, was a film that was well-regarded in Venice, but not the talk of the festival, yet which also gained a second life when the film’s handlers held it back a grade.
It seems as though some (not all) films can counter or ignore an unfavorable festival reaction, if they’re willing to play the waiting game. Maybe for a super high-profile film this isn’t an option, but I think it’s worth noting that two of our most recent festival-debuting Best Picture winners were emphatically NOT anointed as Oscar frontrunners in the festival circuit.
I agree with Antoinette. “Warrior” is fantastic and in a just world would be buzzed about in all the
top Oscar categories. It features two wonderful lead actor performances and a great supporting turn from Nick Nolte. I consider it one of the very best films of the year so far. I loved the look of the film, the lack of a heart-tugging cliche score (no big “Rocky” music in this film!) and the way each fight was full of suspense even though we know how 90% of them will turn out. There were grown men sobbing in the theatre when I saw “Warrior” and I was one of them.
I agree with Antoinette. “Warrior” is fantastic and in a just world would be buzzed about in all the
top Oscar categories. It features two wonderful lead actor performances and a great supporting turn from Nick Nolte. I consider it one of the very best films of the year so far. I loved the look of the film, the lack of a heart-tugging cliche score (no big “Rocky” music in this film!) and the way each fight was full of suspense even though we know how 90% of them will turn out. There were grown men sobbing in the theatre when I saw “Warrior” and I was one of them.
With an indeterminable number of Best Picture nominees, I really don’t see The Help or Midnight in Paris making it. To me they’re the sort of “filler” the new rule is meaning to circumvent.
With an indeterminable number of Best Picture nominees, I really don’t see The Help or Midnight in Paris making it. To me they’re the sort of “filler” the new rule is meaning to circumvent.
You are not mentioning Young Adult and most importantly ‘The Ides of March’ in any of the categories. Shouldn’t the latter be under the ‘ second tier of hopefuls’ and the former along the ones everyone has high hopes for sight unseen?
You are not mentioning Young Adult and most importantly ‘The Ides of March’ in any of the categories. Shouldn’t the latter be under the ‘ second tier of hopefuls’ and the former along the ones everyone has high hopes for sight unseen?
The Help? –groan–
The Help? –groan–
Sam – That’s interesting, because I haven’t been looking forward to War Horse at all, yet when I saw the trailer I teared up immediately. Maybe it’s just my love of horses. But I was well able to resist any big emotional response to Secretariat, so… I dunno. Your questions about the PR for the film intrigue me. Maybe it’s a strategy to avoid peaking too soon with the high expectations? Or maybe they don’t want to waste money on Sept. campaigning. I guess we’ll find out in the next few months if this movie is the real deal. I certainly wouldn’t count Spielberg out this early. Maybe Sasha or Ryan can solve the conundrum.
Sam – That’s interesting, because I haven’t been looking forward to War Horse at all, yet when I saw the trailer I teared up immediately. Maybe it’s just my love of horses. But I was well able to resist any big emotional response to Secretariat, so… I dunno. Your questions about the PR for the film intrigue me. Maybe it’s a strategy to avoid peaking too soon with the high expectations? Or maybe they don’t want to waste money on Sept. campaigning. I guess we’ll find out in the next few months if this movie is the real deal. I certainly wouldn’t count Spielberg out this early. Maybe Sasha or Ryan can solve the conundrum.
I’m telling you guys, Young Adult. It’s coming and it will be a player. I’m amazed at how little people talk about it (I’m aware you devote a bit of time to it in this article, but then you pass over it in your predictions).
Jason Reitman is 2 for 3 with BP/BD/Best Screenplay (he didn’t write Juno, of course, but it’s a film he made so I’m counting it) and Acting nominations. He’s 3 for 3 for just generally great movies. This film sees him reunited with Diablo Cody.
I think it will definitely be a player.
I’m telling you guys, Young Adult. It’s coming and it will be a player. I’m amazed at how little people talk about it (I’m aware you devote a bit of time to it in this article, but then you pass over it in your predictions).
Jason Reitman is 2 for 3 with BP/BD/Best Screenplay (he didn’t write Juno, of course, but it’s a film he made so I’m counting it) and Acting nominations. He’s 3 for 3 for just generally great movies. This film sees him reunited with Diablo Cody.
I think it will definitely be a player.
I’m a War Horse watcher here in the UK and am fascinated by the lack of publicity for it – do you know what the reason for that might be? Normally Spielberg is tight as thieves with Empire magazine (he guest edited it a while back) and they run any number of drooling articles on his films. For a movie that was entirely shot in the UK, the silence has been bizarre – no on-set interviews, no behind-the-scenes pieces like they normally run, months in advance; in fact, nary a mention. Hardly any interviews with any of the stars, like they have all had to sign a vow of silence. And then there’s the War Horse official website. It consists of the trailer, the synopsis, and two photos. That’s it. Distinctly underwhelming, especially as to my knowledge, about 15 official on-set photos have been released. Yet they haven’t even put them all on the official site. And then there’s the trailer itself. Not exactly the most rivetting thing I’ve ever seen, and given that the source material regularly reduces people to tears, curiously unemotional – when emotion is the heart of the story. No festival appearances for it, either. So Sasha, do you have any idea what DreamWorks is playing at? Why the low, low-key approach? What strategy are they using? And do you think it’ll work?
I’m a War Horse watcher here in the UK and am fascinated by the lack of publicity for it – do you know what the reason for that might be? Normally Spielberg is tight as thieves with Empire magazine (he guest edited it a while back) and they run any number of drooling articles on his films. For a movie that was entirely shot in the UK, the silence has been bizarre – no on-set interviews, no behind-the-scenes pieces like they normally run, months in advance; in fact, nary a mention. Hardly any interviews with any of the stars, like they have all had to sign a vow of silence. And then there’s the War Horse official website. It consists of the trailer, the synopsis, and two photos. That’s it. Distinctly underwhelming, especially as to my knowledge, about 15 official on-set photos have been released. Yet they haven’t even put them all on the official site. And then there’s the trailer itself. Not exactly the most rivetting thing I’ve ever seen, and given that the source material regularly reduces people to tears, curiously unemotional – when emotion is the heart of the story. No festival appearances for it, either. So Sasha, do you have any idea what DreamWorks is playing at? Why the low, low-key approach? What strategy are they using? And do you think it’ll work?
And how fast was Harry Potter forgotten? It really came and went. It went straight from “IT’S GETTING IN – IT’S THE LAST INSTALLMENT AT THE BEST-REVIEWED BIG FILM OF THE YEAR” to “OH, RIGHT, HARRY POTTER WAS T-H-I-S YEAR… HMMM…”
And how fast was Harry Potter forgotten? It really came and went. It went straight from “IT’S GETTING IN – IT’S THE LAST INSTALLMENT AT THE BEST-REVIEWED BIG FILM OF THE YEAR” to “OH, RIGHT, HARRY POTTER WAS T-H-I-S YEAR… HMMM…”
And it’s still a mystery to me how Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a frontrunner for the Original Screenplay win (and winner of Best Picture at the Globes) didn’t even get a screenplay nomination by the Academy! Maybe Woody isn’t really that loved anymore…
And it’s still a mystery to me how Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a frontrunner for the Original Screenplay win (and winner of Best Picture at the Globes) didn’t even get a screenplay nomination by the Academy! Maybe Woody isn’t really that loved anymore…
To get a Best Picture nomination this year, it’s all about getting the no. 1 votes.
And as good as MIDNIGHT IN PARIS has been received, I just can’t believe that 250 (or so) Academy members will put it down as the Best Film Of The Year. I sounds like a very solid Top 5 vote, but it NEEDS no. 1 votes to get in.
Am I the only one who thinks MIDNIGHT is a lot shakier. Had the voting rules from the last two years continued, sure it would be in. But now?
Sasha, do you think it could get that many no. 1 votes at the end of the day? Come January it could be VERY old news. Even putting it at no. 3 won’t get it in. No. 2 either, unless thousands of them put it at no. 2, and a lot of them putting up a no. 1 that doesn’t make the cut. People really like/love it, but do they love it with a PASSION?
To get a Best Picture nomination this year, it’s all about getting the no. 1 votes.
And as good as MIDNIGHT IN PARIS has been received, I just can’t believe that 250 (or so) Academy members will put it down as the Best Film Of The Year. I sounds like a very solid Top 5 vote, but it NEEDS no. 1 votes to get in.
Am I the only one who thinks MIDNIGHT is a lot shakier. Had the voting rules from the last two years continued, sure it would be in. But now?
Sasha, do you think it could get that many no. 1 votes at the end of the day? Come January it could be VERY old news. Even putting it at no. 3 won’t get it in. No. 2 either, unless thousands of them put it at no. 2, and a lot of them putting up a no. 1 that doesn’t make the cut. People really like/love it, but do they love it with a PASSION?
Texas Killing Fields is directed by Amy Mann, who is Michael Mann’s daughter. Michael Mann is producing.
Jessica Chastain (who was awesome in The Debt), Chloe Moretz and Sam Worthington headline the cast.
Texas Killing Fields is directed by Amy Mann, who is Michael Mann’s daughter. Michael Mann is producing.
Jessica Chastain (who was awesome in The Debt), Chloe Moretz and Sam Worthington headline the cast.
My favorite movie so far of 2011
– I Saw The Devil
Movies I’m looking forward too…
– Shame
– Drive
– Moneyball
– 50/50
– Paranormal Activity 3
– Texas Killing Fields
– Dirty Girl
– J.Edgar
– Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
– The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
– In The Land of Blood and Honey
– My Week with Marilyn
My favorite movie so far of 2011
– I Saw The Devil
Movies I’m looking forward too…
– Shame
– Drive
– Moneyball
– 50/50
– Paranormal Activity 3
– Texas Killing Fields
– Dirty Girl
– J.Edgar
– Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
– The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
– In The Land of Blood and Honey
– My Week with Marilyn
I’ve seen ‘We Bought A Zoo’. While I enjoyed the film, I wouldn’t say it’s Oscar material. It will be compared to ‘The Descendants’ I’m sure, mainly because both leading men deal with the same issue (loss of wife and raising children). I could see ‘Zoo’ being a huge hit. Many people were bawling in the theater. It gets off to a rocky start and there’s one character that’s really weird/annoying and totally out of place but overall I left smiling. Oscar… Nah.
I’ve seen ‘We Bought A Zoo’. While I enjoyed the film, I wouldn’t say it’s Oscar material. It will be compared to ‘The Descendants’ I’m sure, mainly because both leading men deal with the same issue (loss of wife and raising children). I could see ‘Zoo’ being a huge hit. Many people were bawling in the theater. It gets off to a rocky start and there’s one character that’s really weird/annoying and totally out of place but overall I left smiling. Oscar… Nah.
-The Artist
-The Descendants(lock)
-Harry Potter(big blockbuster)
-The Help(The blind side)
-J. Edgar(Welcome back!)
-Midnight in Paris
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy(lock)
-War Horse
-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-Moneyball
-The Artist
-The Descendants(lock)
-Harry Potter(big blockbuster)
-The Help(The blind side)
-J. Edgar(Welcome back!)
-Midnight in Paris
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy(lock)
-War Horse
-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
-Moneyball
The question is: Will Woody Allen pick up his fourth Oscar in the Best Original Screenplay category?
Right now, not only he seems locked in for a writing nomination but a frontrunner to win. Anybody feeling it?
Now, about that Best Pic nomination… wish I could be as certain as Sasha. Fingers crossed on that one. He has the B.O plus the critics/audience love. The Academy should embrace it.
The question is: Will Woody Allen pick up his fourth Oscar in the Best Original Screenplay category?
Right now, not only he seems locked in for a writing nomination but a frontrunner to win. Anybody feeling it?
Now, about that Best Pic nomination… wish I could be as certain as Sasha. Fingers crossed on that one. He has the B.O plus the critics/audience love. The Academy should embrace it.
Here is the thing. Sasha likes to place her chips on longshots early on, so she has bragging rights later. Midnight in Paris is one of those……….
Here is the thing. Sasha likes to place her chips on longshots early on, so she has bragging rights later. Midnight in Paris is one of those……….
Wonderful piece, Sasha. The Oscar-in-the-obit thing always makes me think of the first time I heard somebody say that his Academy Award would be mentioned in the first line of his obituary: It was Walter Matthau, being interviewed on some TV special on the Oscars in the early ’70s, when I was in high school. The thing is it’s always true; heck, it even worked for Cliff Robertson. (One reason that following the Oscars has become unexpectedly comforting as I’ve gotten older is that lots of things change, but certain things about the Oscars do not change–including the kinds of films that tend to win, and, ultimately, the prestige of having won.)
Speaking of which, The Help will be on the Best Picture list because it’s in that category that Pauline Kael disdainfully called “Pictures the Industry Can Be Proud Of,” depressing as it may be that such a retrograde film would still qualify. Also, Midnight in Paris represents the kind of comeback story the voters can’t resist. Who knows? It could end up in the Gladiator/Crash/Hurt Locker category of early-year films with surprising staying power, but, as another poster says, a lot depends on how late-year releases turn out. If War Horse, J. Edgar, and We Bought a Zoo are all terrific, Woody could be in some trouble. But if one or more of those titles fizzle out, who knows how far Midnight in Pairs could go? But I do think that The Tree of Life carries the stigma of over-artiness (Think Eyes Wide Shut or I’m Not There–two great ones, if you ask me, but movies that proved kisses of death where the Academy voters were concerned). It will have to win big at the NBR or the LAFC, and that seems very, very unlikely.
Of the unseen films, the one I find the most intriguing is J. Edgar. Hoover seems apter subject matter for Scorsese or even Spielberg. Eastwood taking on such explosive material, with a script by Dustin Black and starring DiCaprio–it’s an unpredictable combination. Nobody can say that Clint doesn’t continue to challenge himself. As a longtime Eastwood watcher, I think it’s likely to pay off big. As far as this being DiCaprio’s year, with 2012 promising Gatsby as well as Django Unchained, if Leo doesn’t win for one of those three, then I will be surprised.
Also, Sasha, you’re very wise (and wised up) about the folly of clearing off mantel space for Oscars to movies nobody (outside their production team) has seen. Just think of those Best Picture winners, The Green Mile, Munich, and Dreamgirls (but Green Mile and Munich were able to grab BP nominations perhaps because enough voters who hadn’t gotten around to seeing everything yet remembered hearing that they couldn’t lose!). And the Oscar buzz for a few of these unseen films this year will probably evaporate as soon as someone sees them.
Wonderful piece, Sasha. The Oscar-in-the-obit thing always makes me think of the first time I heard somebody say that his Academy Award would be mentioned in the first line of his obituary: It was Walter Matthau, being interviewed on some TV special on the Oscars in the early ’70s, when I was in high school. The thing is it’s always true; heck, it even worked for Cliff Robertson. (One reason that following the Oscars has become unexpectedly comforting as I’ve gotten older is that lots of things change, but certain things about the Oscars do not change–including the kinds of films that tend to win, and, ultimately, the prestige of having won.)
Speaking of which, The Help will be on the Best Picture list because it’s in that category that Pauline Kael disdainfully called “Pictures the Industry Can Be Proud Of,” depressing as it may be that such a retrograde film would still qualify. Also, Midnight in Paris represents the kind of comeback story the voters can’t resist. Who knows? It could end up in the Gladiator/Crash/Hurt Locker category of early-year films with surprising staying power, but, as another poster says, a lot depends on how late-year releases turn out. If War Horse, J. Edgar, and We Bought a Zoo are all terrific, Woody could be in some trouble. But if one or more of those titles fizzle out, who knows how far Midnight in Pairs could go? But I do think that The Tree of Life carries the stigma of over-artiness (Think Eyes Wide Shut or I’m Not There–two great ones, if you ask me, but movies that proved kisses of death where the Academy voters were concerned). It will have to win big at the NBR or the LAFC, and that seems very, very unlikely.
Of the unseen films, the one I find the most intriguing is J. Edgar. Hoover seems apter subject matter for Scorsese or even Spielberg. Eastwood taking on such explosive material, with a script by Dustin Black and starring DiCaprio–it’s an unpredictable combination. Nobody can say that Clint doesn’t continue to challenge himself. As a longtime Eastwood watcher, I think it’s likely to pay off big. As far as this being DiCaprio’s year, with 2012 promising Gatsby as well as Django Unchained, if Leo doesn’t win for one of those three, then I will be surprised.
Also, Sasha, you’re very wise (and wised up) about the folly of clearing off mantel space for Oscars to movies nobody (outside their production team) has seen. Just think of those Best Picture winners, The Green Mile, Munich, and Dreamgirls (but Green Mile and Munich were able to grab BP nominations perhaps because enough voters who hadn’t gotten around to seeing everything yet remembered hearing that they couldn’t lose!). And the Oscar buzz for a few of these unseen films this year will probably evaporate as soon as someone sees them.
Rivalry for Oscar recognition resembles academic rivalry more and more; the smaller the stakes the more intense the infighting.
Online commentary, present company excluded, is toxic.
Rivalry for Oscar recognition resembles academic rivalry more and more; the smaller the stakes the more intense the infighting.
Online commentary, present company excluded, is toxic.
Thanks Sasha, great perspective. I completely agree about the festivals, especially Toronto, which can make or break movies. As I recall, The Departed was shown there to a select group rather than openly at the festival itself. Word started to seep out after the fest and it was great. It’s interesting that Eastwood decided not to show J. Edgar at any of the fests but not surprising given Hereafter’s reception. I think he also wants to keep his cards close to his chest on this one for whatever reasons. He probably figures it’s smart to let a lot of other films get out in the open first — to let them percolate in the consciousness a little. He waited almost until the last possible minute to show Million Dollar Baby and it ended up blowing everything else out of the water. He knows the academy well. They tend to like surprises, especially if they’re good ones.
Thanks Sasha, great perspective. I completely agree about the festivals, especially Toronto, which can make or break movies. As I recall, The Departed was shown there to a select group rather than openly at the festival itself. Word started to seep out after the fest and it was great. It’s interesting that Eastwood decided not to show J. Edgar at any of the fests but not surprising given Hereafter’s reception. I think he also wants to keep his cards close to his chest on this one for whatever reasons. He probably figures it’s smart to let a lot of other films get out in the open first — to let them percolate in the consciousness a little. He waited almost until the last possible minute to show Million Dollar Baby and it ended up blowing everything else out of the water. He knows the academy well. They tend to like surprises, especially if they’re good ones.
The Help will get in because of the Viola Davis. I’d say Blind Side-esque, but The Help is a much better film and Davis’s performance is much better than Sandra’s.
I adore Attack the Block to no end, but I still scoff seeing it in the same tier as ToL. I know it’s not as widely adored as it needs to be [or probably should be] but people who love Tol LOVE it. It will definitely get number one votes where movies like The Help will not.
Same goes for Harry Potter. Much higher chance of getting number ones than, say, Drive. And I can only hold out hope for Super 8. I know it has no chance, but god it’s so good.
The Help will get in because of the Viola Davis. I’d say Blind Side-esque, but The Help is a much better film and Davis’s performance is much better than Sandra’s.
I adore Attack the Block to no end, but I still scoff seeing it in the same tier as ToL. I know it’s not as widely adored as it needs to be [or probably should be] but people who love Tol LOVE it. It will definitely get number one votes where movies like The Help will not.
Same goes for Harry Potter. Much higher chance of getting number ones than, say, Drive. And I can only hold out hope for Super 8. I know it has no chance, but god it’s so good.
Best Pic nom will be
Shame
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
J.Edgar
The Descendants
The Artist
Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy
Best Pic nom will be
Shame
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
J.Edgar
The Descendants
The Artist
Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy
I hoped District 9 would get in, but I doubted it. I was ecstatic when it did. 😀
Going by your article I think everything falling away at the festivals is a boost for Midnight in Paris. It’s scooting by in the left lane while everyone else winds up in a pile up. It’s kind of a shame though, imo, because I was disappointed with it. I love Woody Allen but I didn’t think this was up to snuff. If it’s not just me, and it very well may be me, it’s possible people who will see it in the heart of awards season will also be disappointed. When I saw it I had just seen Warrior hours before and imo, Warrior was the far better film. I’m sad to see that it’s falling away with the disappointing box office. I’m still going to hold out hope that it finds a way to hang in there, because it’s the kind of movie that wins if it’s nominated. But it has to be nominated. And they didn’t release it right. Sad panda.
I’m really at a loss on how to judge what’s going to be nominated. With this new system who knows what wacky things the Academy might do? It might just be best to go with the IMDb scores of the movies this year because only peoples “favorites” are going to get nominated.
If it was a normal year, I’d be putting all my money on War Horse and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier. Spy
I hoped District 9 would get in, but I doubted it. I was ecstatic when it did. 😀
Going by your article I think everything falling away at the festivals is a boost for Midnight in Paris. It’s scooting by in the left lane while everyone else winds up in a pile up. It’s kind of a shame though, imo, because I was disappointed with it. I love Woody Allen but I didn’t think this was up to snuff. If it’s not just me, and it very well may be me, it’s possible people who will see it in the heart of awards season will also be disappointed. When I saw it I had just seen Warrior hours before and imo, Warrior was the far better film. I’m sad to see that it’s falling away with the disappointing box office. I’m still going to hold out hope that it finds a way to hang in there, because it’s the kind of movie that wins if it’s nominated. But it has to be nominated. And they didn’t release it right. Sad panda.
I’m really at a loss on how to judge what’s going to be nominated. With this new system who knows what wacky things the Academy might do? It might just be best to go with the IMDb scores of the movies this year because only peoples “favorites” are going to get nominated.
If it was a normal year, I’d be putting all my money on War Horse and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier. Spy
Sasha, frankly, I’d rather have a full 10 nominees if it means Attack the Block, or something that beyond the center, gets in there. It would definitely make it more interesting.
My friend asked me the other day why I’m already telling her about potential oscar nominees. It’s my sports. My superbowl. I know the oscar doesn’t mean the best really wins, but I know it connotes a certain level of achievement within and outside the industry, for better or worst, as you say. I love movies. Just about more than anything. So I root for those films, actors, artists whom I love. They become dear to me in a way. That sounds romantic, but I’ve always been a romantic when it comes to movies, books, music, art I love. So here I am. Rooting for my favorites already (even those I haven’t seen, as wacked out as that is), even if I know they have no chance.
Sasha, frankly, I’d rather have a full 10 nominees if it means Attack the Block, or something that beyond the center, gets in there. It would definitely make it more interesting.
My friend asked me the other day why I’m already telling her about potential oscar nominees. It’s my sports. My superbowl. I know the oscar doesn’t mean the best really wins, but I know it connotes a certain level of achievement within and outside the industry, for better or worst, as you say. I love movies. Just about more than anything. So I root for those films, actors, artists whom I love. They become dear to me in a way. That sounds romantic, but I’ve always been a romantic when it comes to movies, books, music, art I love. So here I am. Rooting for my favorites already (even those I haven’t seen, as wacked out as that is), even if I know they have no chance.
I should clarify, Harris’ piece was linked at In Contention. He didn’t write it for the site.
I should clarify, Harris’ piece was linked at In Contention. He didn’t write it for the site.
Great piece, Sasha. Makes a nice counterpoint to Mark Harris’ article I read over at In Contention. Frankly as much as I enjoy the guessing game this early, even all year long, I’m glad some films won’t be coming out for a while. That would make for a dull fall movies season and overall awards season. And I do think there is something to Harris’ assertion that it’s a little loony to sink films before they even hit American shores. Granted, we do it and will keep doing it. But I’m glad not all films get their fates decided so early and by so few.
Great piece, Sasha. Makes a nice counterpoint to Mark Harris’ article I read over at In Contention. Frankly as much as I enjoy the guessing game this early, even all year long, I’m glad some films won’t be coming out for a while. That would make for a dull fall movies season and overall awards season. And I do think there is something to Harris’ assertion that it’s a little loony to sink films before they even hit American shores. Granted, we do it and will keep doing it. But I’m glad not all films get their fates decided so early and by so few.
The Help, Drive, and Shame will not be Best Pic nods…..i’ll bet anyone!
The Help, Drive, and Shame will not be Best Pic nods…..i’ll bet anyone!
Your best post in quite a while, Sasha!
I think Midnight In Paris will be in trouble IF all of the “sight unseen” major films get a good reception. With a movie like The Help looking set to securing this years’ “Blind Side”-spot and assuming that The Descendants, The Artist and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy are in as well, it looks difficult for dear old Woody to sneak his way in (not that he cares much, probably).
I personally have a sneaky feeling that Extremely Loud…if just merely good is going to trump all other competition aside. I don’t hope it’s turning out that way cause I’ve got so much higher hopes for the merits of The Descendants, The Artist and Tinker, Tailor….!
Your best post in quite a while, Sasha!
I think Midnight In Paris will be in trouble IF all of the “sight unseen” major films get a good reception. With a movie like The Help looking set to securing this years’ “Blind Side”-spot and assuming that The Descendants, The Artist and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy are in as well, it looks difficult for dear old Woody to sneak his way in (not that he cares much, probably).
I personally have a sneaky feeling that Extremely Loud…if just merely good is going to trump all other competition aside. I don’t hope it’s turning out that way cause I’ve got so much higher hopes for the merits of The Descendants, The Artist and Tinker, Tailor….!
looks like this is the year Dicaprio wil finally win golden guy
Why Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt Are the Frontrunners in Oscar’s Best Actor Race (Analysis)
Of all the films that had their world premieres at this year’s Toronto International Film Festival, the one that got the biggest awards boost, by far, is Bennett Miller’s Moneyball, which stars Brad Pitt (pictured). The film experienced plenty of turbulence on its way to the big screen — two years ago, its original director, Steven Soderbergh, left the production over creative differences just days before shooting was to commence, and Aaron Sorkin was brought on to re-work Steven Zaillian’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’ best-selling book about Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane — but it was well worth the wait. Critics and the public have cheered it as not just another “baseball movie,” but one with a more universal appeal. Which brings us to the Academy…
As I see it, Oscar nominations are certainly possible for picture, director, adapted screenplay and even score, but the film’s biggest threat to do some awards damage — and indeed the heart and soul of the film itself — is Pitt. I don’t see how he doesn’t get nominated (playing a real, likable, noble character very well checks off a lot of boxes), and, having now seen almost
looks like this is the year Dicaprio wil finally win golden guy
Why Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt Are the Frontrunners in Oscar’s Best Actor Race (Analysis)
Of all the films that had their world premieres at this year’s Toronto International Film Festival, the one that got the biggest awards boost, by far, is Bennett Miller’s Moneyball, which stars Brad Pitt (pictured). The film experienced plenty of turbulence on its way to the big screen — two years ago, its original director, Steven Soderbergh, left the production over creative differences just days before shooting was to commence, and Aaron Sorkin was brought on to re-work Steven Zaillian’s adaptation of Michael Lewis’ best-selling book about Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane — but it was well worth the wait. Critics and the public have cheered it as not just another “baseball movie,” but one with a more universal appeal. Which brings us to the Academy…
As I see it, Oscar nominations are certainly possible for picture, director, adapted screenplay and even score, but the film’s biggest threat to do some awards damage — and indeed the heart and soul of the film itself — is Pitt. I don’t see how he doesn’t get nominated (playing a real, likable, noble character very well checks off a lot of boxes), and, having now seen almost
am still crossing my fingers that a tiny unknown indepenednt film will do great
am still crossing my fingers that a tiny unknown indepenednt film will do great
thanks for sharing your top 10 sasha! i’m very excited for some of these, glad to see you have tree of life (wish it was higher) in there and contagion… also, puncture wasn’t even on my radar…. I’m so glad i asked!
thanks for sharing your top 10 sasha! i’m very excited for some of these, glad to see you have tree of life (wish it was higher) in there and contagion… also, puncture wasn’t even on my radar…. I’m so glad i asked!
To your point the Oscars are the awards people remember, that is obviously true. I think it is fair to say if one guaged the roster of films and performances the New York Film Critics have honored over the decades their choices are generally right on the mark, with some exceptions, and have held up well. They are the first awards I pay attention to each season. I think second to an Oscar this is the award most actors and filmmakers would covet, notwithstanding the guild awards.
To your point the Oscars are the awards people remember, that is obviously true. I think it is fair to say if one guaged the roster of films and performances the New York Film Critics have honored over the decades their choices are generally right on the mark, with some exceptions, and have held up well. They are the first awards I pay attention to each season. I think second to an Oscar this is the award most actors and filmmakers would covet, notwithstanding the guild awards.
What about The Ides of March? Early reviews certainly aren’t rapturous, but I don’t think it should be completely written off.
What about The Ides of March? Early reviews certainly aren’t rapturous, but I don’t think it should be completely written off.
almost all the characters are lower class, some of them even black.
Gasp! Even black? Have they no shame?
almost all the characters are lower class, some of them even black.
Gasp! Even black? Have they no shame?
“The two films that are in the hot seat sight unseen are Clint Eastwood’s J Edgar, Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo, and Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close.”
You mean, four, right?
And ATTACK THE BLOCK? Seriously? Even as a off-the-charts prediction? Do you really think AMPAS voters watched/will watch that and place it as #1 in their ballots?
“The two films that are in the hot seat sight unseen are Clint Eastwood’s J Edgar, Steven Spielberg’s War Horse, Cameron Crowe’s We Bought a Zoo, and Stephen Daldry’s Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close.”
You mean, four, right?
And ATTACK THE BLOCK? Seriously? Even as a off-the-charts prediction? Do you really think AMPAS voters watched/will watch that and place it as #1 in their ballots?
Sasha,
If you don’t mind, I will be quoting you abundantly (and hopefully accurately).
Sasha,
If you don’t mind, I will be quoting you abundantly (and hopefully accurately).
Alas, Attack the Block is a great film, but not at ALL an Academy film. And it’s not because it’s campy, but because it’s an obscure British sci-fi film with a cast of unknowns, and almost all the characters are lower class, some of them even black. The Academy likes its British films to be about white, upper class people, or even better, royalty. Also, the distributor handling Attack the Block was fucking idiotic in how it handled the film. A smart company could have made it a breakout hit.
For all of the peeps who underestimate Attack the Block – no one thought District 9 was an “Academy movie” either. But I hear what you’re saying. I just like to toss things out there because it makes it more interesting to me.
Alas, Attack the Block is a great film, but not at ALL an Academy film. And it’s not because it’s campy, but because it’s an obscure British sci-fi film with a cast of unknowns, and almost all the characters are lower class, some of them even black. The Academy likes its British films to be about white, upper class people, or even better, royalty. Also, the distributor handling Attack the Block was fucking idiotic in how it handled the film. A smart company could have made it a breakout hit.
For all of the peeps who underestimate Attack the Block – no one thought District 9 was an “Academy movie” either. But I hear what you’re saying. I just like to toss things out there because it makes it more interesting to me.
About A Dangerous Method there is a wonderful interview with Keira Knightley by Scott Feinberg about her career and ADM, worth to watch (except Jeremie). Here is the link: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/toronto-video-interview-dangerous-method-234599
About A Dangerous Method there is a wonderful interview with Keira Knightley by Scott Feinberg about her career and ADM, worth to watch (except Jeremie). Here is the link: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/toronto-video-interview-dangerous-method-234599
Sasha, that’s so far from wacky. That’s a great list in fact, varied in terms of genre, style and audience.
I don’t think Attack the Block has anywhere near as much of a chance as the other films you’ve mentioned though. I’d put The Tree of Life significantly above it, and would say that We Need to Talk About Kevin also has a much better chance, and even it is a total outsider. How come you think Attack the Block has a better chance than Harry Potter, A Dangerous Method, Wuthering Heights, Like Crazy, Super 8? All that said, I approve of your decision to have faith in it. If enough influential voices keep mentioning it like you’re doing here, it may just have the kind of outside shot that so many evidently want it to.
Sasha, that’s so far from wacky. That’s a great list in fact, varied in terms of genre, style and audience.
I don’t think Attack the Block has anywhere near as much of a chance as the other films you’ve mentioned though. I’d put The Tree of Life significantly above it, and would say that We Need to Talk About Kevin also has a much better chance, and even it is a total outsider. How come you think Attack the Block has a better chance than Harry Potter, A Dangerous Method, Wuthering Heights, Like Crazy, Super 8? All that said, I approve of your decision to have faith in it. If enough influential voices keep mentioning it like you’re doing here, it may just have the kind of outside shot that so many evidently want it to.
Sasha,
You’ve seen a ton of 2011 movies… what would you pick if the 10 best pic slots were up to you? instead of what you think they “will” be. I know this is a novel concept… but i sometimes worry we talk about what “will happen” instead of actually talking about the good films and what “should” happen. I understand the name of the website is awardsdaily but still.
You’ve seen a ton of 2011 movies… what would you pick if the 10 best pic slots were up to you? instead of what you think they “will” be. I know this is a novel concept… but i sometimes worry we talk about what “will happen” instead of actually talking about the good films and what “should” happen. I understand the name of the website is awardsdaily but still.
Well sure – I will do a piece on the films I think are best so far but they’re kind of wacky. To pick 10 right now I’d go:
1. Shame
2. The Artist
3. The Descendants
4. We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
6. Tree of Life
7. Le Havre
8. Contagion
9. Midnight in Paris
10. Puncture
Those are my faves but you know, BP is never gonna look like that.
Sasha,
That’s not a wacky list at all, considering that you’re not indulging in guesswork and only naming movies you’ve seen with your own eyes over the past 8+ months.
I’d be pretty thrilled if those were the actual 10 nominees — except for the fact that means every other movie for the rest of the year would have to go down in flames. So, I suppose that’s not what we want :-/
Sasha,
You’ve seen a ton of 2011 movies… what would you pick if the 10 best pic slots were up to you? instead of what you think they “will” be. I know this is a novel concept… but i sometimes worry we talk about what “will happen” instead of actually talking about the good films and what “should” happen. I understand the name of the website is awardsdaily but still.
You’ve seen a ton of 2011 movies… what would you pick if the 10 best pic slots were up to you? instead of what you think they “will” be. I know this is a novel concept… but i sometimes worry we talk about what “will happen” instead of actually talking about the good films and what “should” happen. I understand the name of the website is awardsdaily but still.
Well sure – I will do a piece on the films I think are best so far but they’re kind of wacky. To pick 10 right now I’d go:
1. Shame
2. The Artist
3. The Descendants
4. We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
6. Tree of Life
7. Le Havre
8. Contagion
9. Midnight in Paris
10. Puncture
Those are my faves but you know, BP is never gonna look like that.
Sasha,
That’s not a wacky list at all, considering that you’re not indulging in guesswork and only naming movies you’ve seen with your own eyes over the past 8+ months.
I’d be pretty thrilled if those were the actual 10 nominees — except for the fact that means every other movie for the rest of the year would have to go down in flames. So, I suppose that’s not what we want :-/
I have 8 titles:
-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Drive
-The Help
-J. Edgar
-Midnight in Paris
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-War Horse
I have 8 titles:
-The Artist
-The Descendants
-Drive
-The Help
-J. Edgar
-Midnight in Paris
-Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
-War Horse
I’d dare to say right now…
1. War Horse
2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. The Help
4. J. Edgar
5. The Descendants
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
7. The Artist
8. Moneyball
9. We Bought a Zoo
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (basically, ’cause Fincher feels “owed” and is in a luck streak)
I’d dare to say right now…
1. War Horse
2. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. The Help
4. J. Edgar
5. The Descendants
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
7. The Artist
8. Moneyball
9. We Bought a Zoo
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (basically, ’cause Fincher feels “owed” and is in a luck streak)
Great piece and completely agree. I think the Sundance darlings “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Like Crazy” will be competing for one spot in the end.
Great piece and completely agree. I think the Sundance darlings “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Like Crazy” will be competing for one spot in the end.
At least you finally dropped Super 8 from the count, still resist to put Harry Potter but now replace Super 8 with Attack the Block? (it would be lovely, though to see Attack the Block nom’d)
(!)
Midnight in Paris, next in line to fall, out of any charts. If it was a late release, it would be in, but I don’t really see how Allen is going to steal the auteur spot from Mallick or Almodovar, to put just a couple of examples. The compulsory original screenplay nom, and thanks.
At least you finally dropped Super 8 from the count, still resist to put Harry Potter but now replace Super 8 with Attack the Block? (it would be lovely, though to see Attack the Block nom’d)
(!)
Midnight in Paris, next in line to fall, out of any charts. If it was a late release, it would be in, but I don’t really see how Allen is going to steal the auteur spot from Mallick or Almodovar, to put just a couple of examples. The compulsory original screenplay nom, and thanks.
Terrific article. But i was wondering if you consider “We Need to Talk About Kevin” out of the race, might that kill Tilda Swinton’s chances over in Best Actress? I haven’t seen the film yet, but I would hate to see such a talented actress keep on getting the short end of the stick when it comes to these awards. Yes, she has an Oscar, but that she’s been snubbed completely for work even better than that winning performance just goes down like a bitter pill.
I haven’t been thinking of “Midnight in Paris” in the context of the Oscars, but i would be elated if it got some nominations (Original Screenplay is a given at this point, a Best Actor nod for Wilson would be amazing).
I haven’t been thinking of “Midnight in Paris” in the context of the Oscars, but i would be elated if it got some nominations (Original Screenplay is a given at this point, a Best Actor nod for Wilson would be amazing).
The key is that it’s the most profitable Woody Allen movie ever and it’s Woody Allen’s best in years.
Terrific article. But i was wondering if you consider “We Need to Talk About Kevin” out of the race, might that kill Tilda Swinton’s chances over in Best Actress? I haven’t seen the film yet, but I would hate to see such a talented actress keep on getting the short end of the stick when it comes to these awards. Yes, she has an Oscar, but that she’s been snubbed completely for work even better than that winning performance just goes down like a bitter pill.
I haven’t been thinking of “Midnight in Paris” in the context of the Oscars, but i would be elated if it got some nominations (Original Screenplay is a given at this point, a Best Actor nod for Wilson would be amazing).
I haven’t been thinking of “Midnight in Paris” in the context of the Oscars, but i would be elated if it got some nominations (Original Screenplay is a given at this point, a Best Actor nod for Wilson would be amazing).
The key is that it’s the most profitable Woody Allen movie ever and it’s Woody Allen’s best in years.
extremely loud is so gettin in with OSCAR WINNER sandra bullock gettin her second nomination is supporting..
extremely loud is so gettin in with OSCAR WINNER sandra bullock gettin her second nomination is supporting..
what if “tree of life” wins the moviecitynews compiled year-end top 10 lists by critics like social network did last year? i know just because the critics love it doesn’t mean the academy will but you can’t tell me if its that much of a critical darling (so far it is, lots to see still in the next 3-4 months yet) that TOL won’t get the minimum 5% of first place votes.
i personally think (and very much hope) it has a better chance at best pic nom than the lesser work (much much much lesser) “the help” which i just can’t see getting anywhere near the 5% minimum of 1st place votes.
what if “tree of life” wins the moviecitynews compiled year-end top 10 lists by critics like social network did last year? i know just because the critics love it doesn’t mean the academy will but you can’t tell me if its that much of a critical darling (so far it is, lots to see still in the next 3-4 months yet) that TOL won’t get the minimum 5% of first place votes.
i personally think (and very much hope) it has a better chance at best pic nom than the lesser work (much much much lesser) “the help” which i just can’t see getting anywhere near the 5% minimum of 1st place votes.
Love the post. Agree with a lot. But there is absolutely no way Attack the Block gets a BP nom. I enjoyed it a lot, but there is no chance the Oscar voters go for it. Too campy.
Love the post. Agree with a lot. But there is absolutely no way Attack the Block gets a BP nom. I enjoyed it a lot, but there is no chance the Oscar voters go for it. Too campy.
What a great perspective on the impacts of social media and Oscar’s race and how we can it could impact film presentation on festivals. Kudos to you for a well thought & written piece.
What a great perspective on the impacts of social media and Oscar’s race and how we can it could impact film presentation on festivals. Kudos to you for a well thought & written piece.