Why does it seem like the beginning of October is already too late to push through an Oscar contender? If you’re a big star in a big movie you’re already on the radar of those who write about Oscar buzz, a thing that increasingly has no there to it. But if you’ve just given the performance of your life in a movie nobody has seen how does your publicist get enough people to see your performance to find a spot for you in the already crowded acting or Best Picture categories?
This moment in the Oscar race is what I always think of as the Million Dollar Baby zone. Clint Eastwood brought that film in at a time when there were less media outlets focused on the race, as many of them are now, and when those of us who were focused on the race – it was like me, David Poland, Tom O’Neil and Kris Tapley and a few others – had our radars tuned to The Aviator, which seemed, at the time, like it might finally be Martin Scorsese’s big Oscar win (he would later go on to win big with The Departed, nothing less than one of the best films ever to win the award). But then people saw Million Dollar Baby. I’ll never forget reading Poland’s site the day after that screening — there was simply no question what movie was going to win and win big.
What I now wonder looking back at those seemingly innocent times, with all of the chatter we have now, so many hunters stalking Oscar prey, where the demand far exceeds the supply, would we have already been well aware that Million Dollar Baby would have been the big Oscar winner? Would it be showing up on Oscar charts as the de facto frontrunner? So much has changed since then.
Either way, and for whatever reason, after Toronto it always feels like the window of opportunity to break through gets smaller and smaller as the days go by. If you’re not considered a major contender already, by October, your chances are slim. But they’re not zero. Late entries can sometimes shake up the race, like The Reader did when it bumped The Dark Knight, altering Oscar history while doing so.
On today’s Off the Carpet column, Kris Tapley looks at the Best Actor race, but specifically at those performances that could be overlooked. I had no idea he was writing this, and I was writing a similar piece at the same time (great minds…) only mine covers Best Picture and Actress too (albeit not as thoroughly as Kris…). So you want to head over there to In Contention to read that piece.
Oscar buzz is now and has always been something undefinable – it’s like sexual attraction: you know it when you feel it.
It isn’t anything you can really control. You can try, certainly. You can have every Oscar blogger and journalist on the beat saying your film will be nominated and will win but that doesn’t really mean that it’s real Oscar buzz. Oscar buzz is what you felt last year with The King’s Speech. It buzzes through the industry and it buzzes on the streets – it is organic, natural excitement for something that is just plain good. It’s different from the kind of buzz you feel from a magnificent breakthrough, or a masterpiece — that you felt with The Social Network last year, or perhaps Drive this year. Drive is a movie people can’t stop talking about, but is also a movie that lives on a different island from The King’s Speech.
As we already know, sometimes these two different forms of buzz overlap and the Best Picture winner IS the film people are buzzing about as this year’s masterpiece: No Country for Old Men, for instance.
Right now, the films that are making money and people are talking about them, recommending them to their friends and are considered hits would include The Help, Midnight in Paris, and now, Moneyball. The other films hovering in the background are being written about and praised — Drive, Attack the Block, Tree of Life – but they have yet to pierce the membrane of the general public’s consciousness to any significant degree.
But here are a few names and titles of those who could slip through the cracks — because to find a place for one you have to bump another. And how do you do that? If you think of actor and actress as being mostly locked:
Actor
George Clooney-probably locked
Brad Pitt-probably locked
Jean DuJardin-probably locked
Leonardo DiCaprio-mostly locked
Gary Oldman-mostly locked
But if so, then what of: Ryan Gosling (Drive or Ides), Woody Harrelson (Rampart), Tom Hardy (Warrior), Michael Fassbender (Shame),Demián Bichir in A Better Life, Joseph Gordon Levitt, Chris Evans (Puncture), Gerard Butler (Machine Gun Preacher), and then unseen Matt Damon in We Bought a Zoo, Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, either of the unknown actors in War Horse or Extremely Loud, etc.
Actress
Viola Davis-mostly locked (will they put her in supporting)
Glenn Close-probably locked
Meryl Streep-mostly locked (no one has seen Iron Lady)
Tilda Swinton-mostly locked (depends if the violence is too off-putting for Acad. members)
Rooney Mara, Michelle Williams (some good buzz coming out of NY Film Fest for her perf), Elizabeth Olsen, Keira Knightley, Charlize Theron for Young Adult, Felicity Jones for Like Crazy, Emma Stone for The Help, Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia, Vera Farmiga for Higher Ground, Emily Watson for Oranges and Sunshine.
And there is the totally out of nowhere performance of someone like Adepero Oduye in Pariah. The film received a standing ovation in Sundance. Read more about it here. Most likely you’re looking at a Spirit Award nomination here, and possibly a win. But nonetheless, these names can sometimes cross over. Yes, the Oscar race is about celebrity but it’s also about discovering, occasionally, new talent, and plucking them from obscurity and into the spotlight. It happens. Not nearly often enough, but it happens.
To that end, I’d like to personally spotlight a few films and performances I fear are going to be mostly forgotten come Oscar time.
The general consensus, give or take, seems to be shaping up like:
War Horse
The Descendants
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
J Edgar
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Artist
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
A tenth slot maybe open — The Ides of March, Tree of Life, Drive, Hugo, We Bought a Zoo, My Week with Marilyn, Iron Lady, Take Shelter, Shame, Warrior, etc.
Top Five For Your Consideration – Best Picture
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes – Yes, it is a prequel, yes, it is a cheesy concept, yes, it isn’t going to make you look respectable dressed up in your tux at an Oscar party if you pick it on your ballot. No, it doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being nominated, but there is no doubt in my mind that it is one of the best films of 2011, yes, even still. Was a time when Oscar wasn’t so highbrow (lowbrow pretending to be highbrow but still…) that they would elect to nominate movies that are outside of the box, beyond the way of thinking because they were successful, they were well made, and they captured the zeitgeist in a given year. If Oscar movies are to represent the best in a given year, they should not discriminate because those films aren’t perioddramasfeaturingpeoplewithdisabilities-fightingnazisduringeitherworldwar-preferablybritishandmakegrownmencry. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is just a good movie. Doubtful any Academy member is going to sacrifice his/her one and only number 1 vote for this one but hey, as Blondie says, dreaming is free.
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – no, I haven’t understood a Harry Potter movie beyond the Prisoner of Azbakan, but even I can recognize the giant-ness, the overall success, the phenomenal contribution to the economy of Hollywood and the imaginations of whole generations. Even I can appreciate the series of films for what they are. Not a one has been nominated for Best Picture and now, finally, with the last – which currently is the best reviewed mainstream film of the year (it shares its metacritic score with Moneyball), it seemed as though it might have had a shot at a nomination finally.
Addition note to Oscar voters: nominate Harry Potter for Best Picture and watch your Neilsen ratings become fully engorged.
3. Drive – of all of these, Drive still has the best chance. Yes, it got sliced and diced by the critics who count: AO Scott of the NY Times and Kenneth Turan of the LA Times, which diminishes its chances significantly, simply because if they didn’t go for it how are the old timers in the Academy going to go for it? Nonetheless, it has a chance because it, like Tree of Life, isn’t a movie you go, eh, I liked it okay. It’s a movie you either loved or didn’t like at all. That leads me to believe there will be enough number one votes for Drive, the most talked about film of the year so far, to make it to number one. It only needs something like 180 or so to make it to the first cut and then it will depend on number 2 and 3 votes. So you got to figure, if a voter has a movie at their number one that doesn’t make the first cut it’s probably going to be something obscure. And if it’s something obscure (like Melancholia, for instance), the number 2 might be Drive.
4. We Need to Talk About Kevin – only a really daring and subversive Academy would pick Lynn Ramsay’s unforgettable, haunting, brilliant film as a Best Picture contender. Unfortunately, now that they’ve changed up their rules we really have to deal front and center with their mostly mainstream taste. When they had ten slots to fill, hope sprang eternal that “little movies” could still make the cut. But now, alas. There is no hope for that. So only movies Academy members LOVED have a hope of getting in. And beware the movie Academy members LOVED. It probably ain’t going to be Kevin, despite how good it is. Ramsay, if she were a guy, would probably be a serious contender for Best Director, but since she’s a female she has to also overcome not being that celebrated wunderkind – because women rarely are. It happens, just not that often.
5. Attack the Block – I know it has no shot in hell, but what a great movie. It’s clever, surprisingly moving, and funny. It’s a bare bones B movie sci-fi but, despite that, it’s got a pretty great message all in all. I wish a movie like this could ever be conceived and made here in America. The closest we have to that is Super 8, another movie that should be considered as a likely BP contender, even if people think the buzz for it has died. I prefer to think about good movies, rather than genre movies, being chosen. But — the Oscars don’t work that way, as we now know.
Finally – just as many hoped The Hangover would have been nominated, a special mention should be made for Bridesmaids, which gets extra points for being written by and starring women. Two films this year have made over $100 million starring women that weren’t about women having sex with men. They were about thinking women – The Help and Bridesmaids. So, you know, wouldn’t it be nice if they could be rewarded for that.
For Your Consideration, Best Actor
Michael Fassbender in Shame
If I had to pick one Best Actor contender who should push through (although, whom to bump?) it would be Fassbender, who turned in two great performances this year – in A Dangerous Method, but in Shame he takes it to a whole different level. Fassbender’s brilliance can be seen specifically in one scene — it’s not the dramatic purging that we witness once his character begins to plummet, but it’s the inner conflict he’s experiencing when trying to decide which path in life to take that drove it home — his is, to my mind thus far, the performance of the year.
Here is what Darren Aronofsky, the jury head at Venice said about him:
“We were blown away by Shame and the cinematic power of it – the hard part is the many films deserved awards. Shame was an incredible journey…I want to say his (Fassbender’s) orgasm in the film is like the closing shots of [Fellini’s 1957] Nights of Cabiria. His collaboration with the director was inspiring and you can see the result of trust. Here is an actor who is fully, fully out there in every way and a filmmaker supporting it. It was a bravo performance.”
I’m also going to include this from Kris Tapley’s Off the Carpet column:
Demián Bichir‘s work in Christ Weitz’s “A Better Life” is still one of the finest pieces of work from a lead this year. Summit is serious about pushing the film and already has screeners out there.
For Your Consideration, Best Actress
Olivia Colman in Tyrannosaur
Championed mainly by Jeff Wells at HE, but looking to be forgotten unless people really do put Tyrannosaur into their DVD players, here is an actress worth paying attention to in a performance that deserves attention. Some of her early notices:
“But it’s not quite as dreamy as it sounds. Hannah, the female lead in Considine’s first feature, Tyrannosaur, is possibly the most humiliated woman in the history of cinema. A good Samaritan who runs a local charity shop, she is verbally eviscerated by the raging stranger who bullies his way into her life. He berates her goody-goody Christianity and cozy values, while the reality is that at home her husband horrendously abuses her. Astonishingly, Colman manages to bring a sense of hope, transcendence even, to this unremittingly bleak world. It’s a devastating performance.” – The Guardian
“Approach Considine’s brilliant directorial debut with caution. It’s a pitiless, fearsome beast that will hammer you in the gut, hard. And Olivia Colman will blow you away,” Tyrannosaur review | TotalFilm.com
One of the reasons why darker material is often overlooked by Oscar, I think, is that when they nominate a performance or a film it’s seen as an endorsement by the general public, and therefore, the Academy has to answer politically for what statements made by the film they’ve endorsed. This is why, I think, they often go so vanilla. Either way, these two performances in these two difficult films are well worth their attention.
And how about you, Oscar watchers? Are there any films or performances you’d like to see remembered?
FYC, Best Actor: Michael Parks in Red State. His performance is nothing short of brilliant. He is frighteningly warm and charismatic as Fred Phelps-esque preacher Abin Cooper; he makes the most horrific hate speech sound like poetry. There’s a chilling earnestness and steady manner he brings to the role of hatemongering fanatic — a role that, in less capable hands, could easily have crossed over into cartoon villain territory — that makes him all the more believable, and thereby simultaneously more horrifying and enthralling. It’s a shame the Academy isn’t interested in challenging, morally skewed performances like this anymore (the fact that Red State never had a proper theatrical release or marketing campaign is also unfortunate).
FYC, Best Actor: Michael Parks in Red State. His performance is nothing short of brilliant. He is frighteningly warm and charismatic as Fred Phelps-esque preacher Abin Cooper; he makes the most horrific hate speech sound like poetry. There’s a chilling earnestness and steady manner he brings to the role of hatemongering fanatic — a role that, in less capable hands, could easily have crossed over into cartoon villain territory — that makes him all the more believable, and thereby simultaneously more horrifying and enthralling. It’s a shame the Academy isn’t interested in challenging, morally skewed performances like this anymore (the fact that Red State never had a proper theatrical release or marketing campaign is also unfortunate).
Warrior got mixed reviews and was merely “well-done crap?” Only on an awards blog website are such delusions accepted as reality.
Warrior got mixed reviews and was merely “well-done crap?” Only on an awards blog website are such delusions accepted as reality.
My FYCs:
Martha Marcy May Marlene for Picture, Actress, Sup. Actor (Hawkes), screenplay
Tree of Life for Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sup. Actor (Pitt), Sup. Actress (Chastain)
A Dangerous Method for Picture, Director, Sup. Actor (Mortensen), Art Direction, Costumes
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus for Sup. Actress
My FYCs:
Martha Marcy May Marlene for Picture, Actress, Sup. Actor (Hawkes), screenplay
Tree of Life for Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sup. Actor (Pitt), Sup. Actress (Chastain)
A Dangerous Method for Picture, Director, Sup. Actor (Mortensen), Art Direction, Costumes
Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus for Sup. Actress
Too soon. Just too soon.
Too soon. Just too soon.
Colin, yeah, you’re probably right. Darn. And she’s playing a man. The actors will love that. She’ll probably get the BAFTA for it as well, Albert Noobs being a British Film. I thought for sure Oliva Colman would have that one in the bag but now I’m not so sure. Here’s hoping that BAFTA and Academy members will let Oliva Colman pull off a Mo’Nique.
Colin, yeah, you’re probably right. Darn. And she’s playing a man. The actors will love that. She’ll probably get the BAFTA for it as well, Albert Noobs being a British Film. I thought for sure Oliva Colman would have that one in the bag but now I’m not so sure. Here’s hoping that BAFTA and Academy members will let Oliva Colman pull off a Mo’Nique.
If anyone will reap the benefit of the “I’m Due” card wouldn’t it be Glenn Close?
If anyone will reap the benefit of the “I’m Due” card wouldn’t it be Glenn Close?
If academy members see Paddy Considine’s Tyrannosaur, I guarantee that Olivia Colman will get nominated and will win Best Actress unless Streep plays the “I’m due” card. It is the best performance this year by a long shot. Thanks for mentioning it. Hopefully others will begin to push the film. It was my favourite at TIFF this year, just ahead of The Artist.
If academy members see Paddy Considine’s Tyrannosaur, I guarantee that Olivia Colman will get nominated and will win Best Actress unless Streep plays the “I’m due” card. It is the best performance this year by a long shot. Thanks for mentioning it. Hopefully others will begin to push the film. It was my favourite at TIFF this year, just ahead of The Artist.
I never was on board with the love for Apes. I was pleasantly surprised and thought it was one of the better popcorn flicks of the summer, but certainly didn’t find it to be the level of the Star Trek reboot, District 9, or other summer box office hits that got some serious consideration.
I’m all for pushing Drive. I think it’s a dark horse that might have enough #1 voters. While many aren’t buying it (including the public at large), I think it has potential. The Reader got in when there were only five nominees, and while most seemed to hate it (I actually loved it), besides the Weinstein factor, I think it got in because it had enough strong supporters that rated it highly. That said, the X-Factor here is how Film District is going to be able to push it. Albert Brooks is certainly doing his best, but I wonder if the love is going to stop there. Meanwhile, my second favorite film so far this year, Moneyball, I think is getting close to a lock, especially with its strong box office. Though, September is still an early release date for such a film.
The Help seems close to a lock, but, then again, is it really anyone’s first choice? Maybe so, the AMPAS does love a heartwarming box office champ.
The Tree of Life is ditto of Drive…enough #1’s, maybe, if the love is passionate enough from those select few. Otherwise, I don’t see much potential for most films out already. A Better Life just seems to small and forgotten, Win Win doesn’t seem to have the attention of The Visitor or Station Agent… I’d think Plummer is still a go for Beginners if Focus pushes it properly.
Harry, as deserved as it is, seems to be slim.
On that note, my personal FYC’s from films already out:
– Hanna – Best Score (The Chemical Brothers)
– Drive – Best Picture, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director
– The Help – Best Supporting Actress (Chastain)
– Moneyball – Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor
– Contagion – Best Cinematography, Best Editing
I never was on board with the love for Apes. I was pleasantly surprised and thought it was one of the better popcorn flicks of the summer, but certainly didn’t find it to be the level of the Star Trek reboot, District 9, or other summer box office hits that got some serious consideration.
I’m all for pushing Drive. I think it’s a dark horse that might have enough #1 voters. While many aren’t buying it (including the public at large), I think it has potential. The Reader got in when there were only five nominees, and while most seemed to hate it (I actually loved it), besides the Weinstein factor, I think it got in because it had enough strong supporters that rated it highly. That said, the X-Factor here is how Film District is going to be able to push it. Albert Brooks is certainly doing his best, but I wonder if the love is going to stop there. Meanwhile, my second favorite film so far this year, Moneyball, I think is getting close to a lock, especially with its strong box office. Though, September is still an early release date for such a film.
The Help seems close to a lock, but, then again, is it really anyone’s first choice? Maybe so, the AMPAS does love a heartwarming box office champ.
The Tree of Life is ditto of Drive…enough #1’s, maybe, if the love is passionate enough from those select few. Otherwise, I don’t see much potential for most films out already. A Better Life just seems to small and forgotten, Win Win doesn’t seem to have the attention of The Visitor or Station Agent… I’d think Plummer is still a go for Beginners if Focus pushes it properly.
Harry, as deserved as it is, seems to be slim.
On that note, my personal FYC’s from films already out:
– Hanna – Best Score (The Chemical Brothers)
– Drive – Best Picture, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director
– The Help – Best Supporting Actress (Chastain)
– Moneyball – Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor
– Contagion – Best Cinematography, Best Editing
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Wiig/Bridesmaids
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, BEST ACTOR
Woody Harrelson/Rampart
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Wiig/Bridesmaids
FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, BEST ACTOR
Woody Harrelson/Rampart
@Evelyn
Seriously, if Fassbender doesn’t get a nomination I think I’ll personally play frisbee with my copy of The Piano.
@Evelyn
Seriously, if Fassbender doesn’t get a nomination I think I’ll personally play frisbee with my copy of The Piano.
Like your style re TYRANNOSAUR, Sasha. But if people do watch it, there’s surely no way PETER MULLAN can be ignored. The film is very much about Mullan AND Colman – they are equally brilliant, and equally worthy of consideration.
Like your style re TYRANNOSAUR, Sasha. But if people do watch it, there’s surely no way PETER MULLAN can be ignored. The film is very much about Mullan AND Colman – they are equally brilliant, and equally worthy of consideration.
I’m gonna keep on pushing for Kristen Wiig (Best Actress) and
“Warrior” (Best Picture). Both are deserving of nominations IMO.
I’m gonna keep on pushing for Kristen Wiig (Best Actress) and
“Warrior” (Best Picture). Both are deserving of nominations IMO.
Great comments, Phantom, on Fassbender nomination chances. Funny dig at the underwhelming Mr. Brody. Fassbender is here to stay!
Great comments, Phantom, on Fassbender nomination chances. Funny dig at the underwhelming Mr. Brody. Fassbender is here to stay!
I saw Win Win this past weekend and I think that it is the best of the year so far (haven’t seen Moneyball yet). Does anyone think it has a shot at a Best Picture nomination?
I saw Win Win this past weekend and I think that it is the best of the year so far (haven’t seen Moneyball yet). Does anyone think it has a shot at a Best Picture nomination?
Thomas Horn gives a very good performance in a very difficult role (the only real lead) in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (they have held early screenings). Arguably better than Jamie Bell’s in Billy Elliot (and I wanted Jamie to get nominated at the time). If it were not already such a crowded field of high profile adult males I’d say he might have a chance at a nomination. In a cast of many famous adults in supporting roles, Viola Davis stands out in a small but pivotal role. Only two scenes, but she is so extraordinarily good in them that that should only help her bid for The Help. Maximilian Shell may be the most likely contender for supporting, male or female. Everyone else is quite good.
Thomas Horn gives a very good performance in a very difficult role (the only real lead) in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (they have held early screenings). Arguably better than Jamie Bell’s in Billy Elliot (and I wanted Jamie to get nominated at the time). If it were not already such a crowded field of high profile adult males I’d say he might have a chance at a nomination. In a cast of many famous adults in supporting roles, Viola Davis stands out in a small but pivotal role. Only two scenes, but she is so extraordinarily good in them that that should only help her bid for The Help. Maximilian Shell may be the most likely contender for supporting, male or female. Everyone else is quite good.
Thank you for mentioning Olivia Colman in TYRANNOSAUR and bringing the well-deserved attention back to her absolutely brilliant and devastating performance. I’m nervous she’s going to be forgotten in the mad campaign frenzy from other big name studios pushing other undeserving performances. If I were a member of the AMPAS I’d be putting her on my top 5 ballot for Best Actress.
Demian Birchir is also someone who I’m afraid will be lost in the shuffle. Thrilled to know the screeners of A BETTER LIFE have been sent out to remind the academy of one of best male leading performances of the year. If Oscar chooses to ignore him he had better damn well win the Indie Spirit for Best Male Lead.
Thank you for mentioning Olivia Colman in TYRANNOSAUR and bringing the well-deserved attention back to her absolutely brilliant and devastating performance. I’m nervous she’s going to be forgotten in the mad campaign frenzy from other big name studios pushing other undeserving performances. If I were a member of the AMPAS I’d be putting her on my top 5 ballot for Best Actress.
Demian Birchir is also someone who I’m afraid will be lost in the shuffle. Thrilled to know the screeners of A BETTER LIFE have been sent out to remind the academy of one of best male leading performances of the year. If Oscar chooses to ignore him he had better damn well win the Indie Spirit for Best Male Lead.
@alan of montreal I also thought that the film’s box office may have suffered from fight fatigue, but I still hope it’s Oscar chances don’t suffer as well. The fact is Academy members are going to be watching most of these films on DVD if they watch them. Maybe Warrior will get lost in the pile when other films have more buzz later in the year. But there’s always the chance that Hardy will be on their radar for TTSS and they’ll pop it in because of that. Or maybe some of Nolte’s fans will want to watch it. Or maybe they’ll remember the good word of mouth even if it didn’t have the numbers. I’m going to hold out hope anyway. 🙂
@alan of montreal I also thought that the film’s box office may have suffered from fight fatigue, but I still hope it’s Oscar chances don’t suffer as well. The fact is Academy members are going to be watching most of these films on DVD if they watch them. Maybe Warrior will get lost in the pile when other films have more buzz later in the year. But there’s always the chance that Hardy will be on their radar for TTSS and they’ll pop it in because of that. Or maybe some of Nolte’s fans will want to watch it. Or maybe they’ll remember the good word of mouth even if it didn’t have the numbers. I’m going to hold out hope anyway. 🙂
thanks m1. As much as that film is NOT for me, I absolutely think Viola Davis deserves to win best SUPPORTING actress. I felt like she was in the film and not, in a good way.
alan of m: It’s just that The Hardy is so good in everything and so ready for it. But you are correct. I’m being patient. btw: the movie was well done crap but both actors shined. As happens often.
thanks m1. As much as that film is NOT for me, I absolutely think Viola Davis deserves to win best SUPPORTING actress. I felt like she was in the film and not, in a good way.
alan of m: It’s just that The Hardy is so good in everything and so ready for it. But you are correct. I’m being patient. btw: the movie was well done crap but both actors shined. As happens often.
I choked up/teared up for Joey and Albert as soon as I saw their silhouette in that glorious still. Glad we won’t see it until late in the season.
I choked up/teared up for Joey and Albert as soon as I saw their silhouette in that glorious still. Glad we won’t see it until late in the season.
Who’s Corey Stoll? The guy from Law & Order LA?
I haven’t seen The Help because I’m really done with race movies. Is it really that good? Or is it just that popular? I’ll see it if I have to, meaning when it gets nominated.
Who’s Corey Stoll? The guy from Law & Order LA?
I haven’t seen The Help because I’m really done with race movies. Is it really that good? Or is it just that popular? I’ll see it if I have to, meaning when it gets nominated.
The only choices I completely disagree with is Tom Hardy for Warrior and the film itself. It tanked at the box office, no one really seems to be talking about it, the reviews for the film were mixed, and with The Fighter getting so much attention last year, I think voters might be a little fight-fatigued. It’s too bad The Lady got such lousy reviews–the story (and Michelle Yeoh) deserves much better treatment than a hack such as Luc Besson could ever give it.
The only choices I completely disagree with is Tom Hardy for Warrior and the film itself. It tanked at the box office, no one really seems to be talking about it, the reviews for the film were mixed, and with The Fighter getting so much attention last year, I think voters might be a little fight-fatigued. It’s too bad The Lady got such lousy reviews–the story (and Michelle Yeoh) deserves much better treatment than a hack such as Luc Besson could ever give it.
“Have to add, seriously who would vote The Help at #1? Really?”
Thank you! I have been saying the same thing for days now. I find it ridiculous that people think that it is a strong contender in that category. That movie will get acting nods at most.
“Have to add, seriously who would vote The Help at #1? Really?”
Thank you! I have been saying the same thing for days now. I find it ridiculous that people think that it is a strong contender in that category. That movie will get acting nods at most.
A performance people shouldn’t forget in the Best Supporting Actor Category:
COREY STOLL, “MIDNIGHT IN PARIS”
That’s all.
A performance people shouldn’t forget in the Best Supporting Actor Category:
COREY STOLL, “MIDNIGHT IN PARIS”
That’s all.
Sasha, you can Garnette that anytime you include a tag or picture from Rise Apes, I’ll be reading your post.
Sasha, you can Garnette that anytime you include a tag or picture from Rise Apes, I’ll be reading your post.
Not to mention that i believe Drive (my favorite movie of the year so far) should definitely be nominated for best picture.
Not to mention that i believe Drive (my favorite movie of the year so far) should definitely be nominated for best picture.
After being snubbed hard last year i really hope that Ryan Gosling can make the shortlist this year. I don’t know about Ides, but he was fantastic in Drive.
After being snubbed hard last year i really hope that Ryan Gosling can make the shortlist this year. I don’t know about Ides, but he was fantastic in Drive.
@Phantom I absolutely agree. Fassbender has stunned me with his talent since Hunger. I think he really wants this and is pulling out all the stops to campaign for a film (and director) he believes in.
@Phantom I absolutely agree. Fassbender has stunned me with his talent since Hunger. I think he really wants this and is pulling out all the stops to campaign for a film (and director) he believes in.
Have to add, seriously who would vote The Help at #1? Really?
Have to add, seriously who would vote The Help at #1? Really?
This year is looking so fascinating. All the indie/difficult sells v. big star turns and legends. I think more than the past couple of years there can be some real passionate voting and the new BP system could bring that out in a big way. Of course the day before Oscar (independent spirit) could be the more gratifying and heated that weekend.
This year is looking so fascinating. All the indie/difficult sells v. big star turns and legends. I think more than the past couple of years there can be some real passionate voting and the new BP system could bring that out in a big way. Of course the day before Oscar (independent spirit) could be the more gratifying and heated that weekend.
Mark
I would love to see Fassbender receiving his very first nomination and considering how brilliant year he is having, I think it would be very fitting. He had me at Jane Eyre, then proved his star quality as the baddie in the surprisingly good X-Men:First Class, and now two MORE critically acclaimed performances in ‘A Dangerous Method’ and more prominently, ‘Shame’. People get Best Actor OSCARS, let alone nominations for careers that have only one, maybe two good to great performances (coughcough Adrien Brody) and Fassbender already has 6 : his four 2011-roles + Fish Tank AND Hunger…and he came out of NOWHERE only 3 years ago…now THAT is impressive.
Mark
I would love to see Fassbender receiving his very first nomination and considering how brilliant year he is having, I think it would be very fitting. He had me at Jane Eyre, then proved his star quality as the baddie in the surprisingly good X-Men:First Class, and now two MORE critically acclaimed performances in ‘A Dangerous Method’ and more prominently, ‘Shame’. People get Best Actor OSCARS, let alone nominations for careers that have only one, maybe two good to great performances (coughcough Adrien Brody) and Fassbender already has 6 : his four 2011-roles + Fish Tank AND Hunger…and he came out of NOWHERE only 3 years ago…now THAT is impressive.
Well shit, Weinstein will get that taken care of for Dujardin. As for the FOX Searchlight, you know they will campaign hard for Clooney to win (who is the slam-dunk front-runner, IMHO). I agree that Fassbender’s fate really rests in the hands of the critics, and his own determination to make the promo rounds for the film. (It appears he’s taken the rest of 2011 off to do so; he’s very charming in interviews and it could work in his favor.)
Well shit, Weinstein will get that taken care of for Dujardin. As for the FOX Searchlight, you know they will campaign hard for Clooney to win (who is the slam-dunk front-runner, IMHO). I agree that Fassbender’s fate really rests in the hands of the critics, and his own determination to make the promo rounds for the film. (It appears he’s taken the rest of 2011 off to do so; he’s very charming in interviews and it could work in his favor.)
Great article sasha… and even though i hope some of your predictions come true… knowing the academy, i can almost bet none of the five best pictures contenders will make the final cut for a best picture nomination (the help probable will but it is not on the list, i know you forgot about that one).
I am getting pretty excited about this year though… i have no fucking clue what movie will be the obvious choice or what movie will surprise the shit out of everyone yet… and that to me is exciting.
Great article sasha… and even though i hope some of your predictions come true… knowing the academy, i can almost bet none of the five best pictures contenders will make the final cut for a best picture nomination (the help probable will but it is not on the list, i know you forgot about that one).
I am getting pretty excited about this year though… i have no fucking clue what movie will be the obvious choice or what movie will surprise the shit out of everyone yet… and that to me is exciting.
@Mark
AMPAS voters don’t give a shit about European festival awards, and Shame is so graphic and disturbing that it’s a guarantee the prudes will turn off that film within the first 15 minutes. The only way Fassbender’s getting a nomination is if the press continues lauding him for the next few months as a Day-Lewis successor. Only then will it be a can’t miss, can’t overlook performance.
@Mark
AMPAS voters don’t give a shit about European festival awards, and Shame is so graphic and disturbing that it’s a guarantee the prudes will turn off that film within the first 15 minutes. The only way Fassbender’s getting a nomination is if the press continues lauding him for the next few months as a Day-Lewis successor. Only then will it be a can’t miss, can’t overlook performance.
Mark
The problem is Fox Searchlight doesn’t only have ONE serious Best Actor contender, it has two…and the other is George Clooney and I guess I don’t have tell you who they will pick if it comes down to these two. If Clooney becomes the frontrunner, they might not want to waste money/time/enthusiasm for Fassbender, who could ultimately weaken their potential frontrunner. I truly hope the, studio will secure a nod for Fassbender – he is having a FANTASTIC year – but it’s pointless to deny that he will be a tough sell with all the NC17-stuff the Academy usually loathes, compared to the All-American loveable movie star playing an endearing character in a potential best picture frontrunner. I hope Fox Searchlight is better than The Weinstein Company who basically threw Gosling under the bus last year in favor of their Best Actor frontrunner.
Meanwhile Jean Dujardin has The Weinstein Company in his corner, the very same company that WON last year’s Oscar race including Best Actor, and unlike Fox Searchlight, they have only ONE serious BA-contender to support (Ralph Fienens might emerge as another, but for now, it’s only Dujardin).
Mark
The problem is Fox Searchlight doesn’t only have ONE serious Best Actor contender, it has two…and the other is George Clooney and I guess I don’t have tell you who they will pick if it comes down to these two. If Clooney becomes the frontrunner, they might not want to waste money/time/enthusiasm for Fassbender, who could ultimately weaken their potential frontrunner. I truly hope the, studio will secure a nod for Fassbender – he is having a FANTASTIC year – but it’s pointless to deny that he will be a tough sell with all the NC17-stuff the Academy usually loathes, compared to the All-American loveable movie star playing an endearing character in a potential best picture frontrunner. I hope Fox Searchlight is better than The Weinstein Company who basically threw Gosling under the bus last year in favor of their Best Actor frontrunner.
Meanwhile Jean Dujardin has The Weinstein Company in his corner, the very same company that WON last year’s Oscar race including Best Actor, and unlike Fox Searchlight, they have only ONE serious BA-contender to support (Ralph Fienens might emerge as another, but for now, it’s only Dujardin).
Antoinette
In the case of Harry Potter I think it should be emphasized that it is still in the discussion because it covers a lot of ‘groups’ in the Academy :
– it probably has the British-vote, it’s basically their movie
– it probably has the Actors-vote considering the stunning ensemble
– it probably has the Technical-branches, it IS a visual extravaganza after all
It needs around 300 votes to have the crucial 5% No1, and considering all mentioned above, I think it has a better-than-expected shot at pulling off that crucal 5%…the fact that it is the highest grossing AND one of the best-reviewed films of 2011 should help, too…
Antoinette
In the case of Harry Potter I think it should be emphasized that it is still in the discussion because it covers a lot of ‘groups’ in the Academy :
– it probably has the British-vote, it’s basically their movie
– it probably has the Actors-vote considering the stunning ensemble
– it probably has the Technical-branches, it IS a visual extravaganza after all
It needs around 300 votes to have the crucial 5% No1, and considering all mentioned above, I think it has a better-than-expected shot at pulling off that crucal 5%…the fact that it is the highest grossing AND one of the best-reviewed films of 2011 should help, too…
Mark: You asked who is distributing The Artist, and will they push? One simple word for you to chew on:
Harvey
Mark: You asked who is distributing The Artist, and will they push? One simple word for you to chew on:
Harvey
What on earth makes Dujardin mostly a lock over Fassbender? Are his reviews that spectacular? Surely Fassbender’s Volpi counts for something. Or is it simply the subject matter of “Shame” that gives you pause?
I think it will all come down to campaigning, and a large part of FOX Searchlight’s distribution deal was contingent upon a major campaign for Fassbender. Who is the US distributor of “The Artist”, and will they push as hard for Dujardin? That is the ultimate question in the race between these two “newcomers” (and I believe that the 5th spot will ultimately come down to a race between them).
What on earth makes Dujardin mostly a lock over Fassbender? Are his reviews that spectacular? Surely Fassbender’s Volpi counts for something. Or is it simply the subject matter of “Shame” that gives you pause?
I think it will all come down to campaigning, and a large part of FOX Searchlight’s distribution deal was contingent upon a major campaign for Fassbender. Who is the US distributor of “The Artist”, and will they push as hard for Dujardin? That is the ultimate question in the race between these two “newcomers” (and I believe that the 5th spot will ultimately come down to a race between them).
Sasha, do you think a newcomer can knock out one of the Best Actor sextet (=Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin, DiCaprio, Oldman, Fassbender) ? I know it’s tough to pin down considering nobody has seen the films of the three most likely candidates (Horn, Irwine, Butterfield), but I think Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) OR Jeremy Irwine (War Horse) could surprise us all. Both are newcomers, but Horn was cast by the same director who directed probably THE most iconic kid performance of the last decade (Billy Elliot) and Spielberg is also good with finding young talent (Christian Bale – Empire of the Sun). Thoughts ?
Phantom I do – but it’s just hard to count your chickens (War Horse) before they hatch….
Sasha, do you think a newcomer can knock out one of the Best Actor sextet (=Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin, DiCaprio, Oldman, Fassbender) ? I know it’s tough to pin down considering nobody has seen the films of the three most likely candidates (Horn, Irwine, Butterfield), but I think Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close) OR Jeremy Irwine (War Horse) could surprise us all. Both are newcomers, but Horn was cast by the same director who directed probably THE most iconic kid performance of the last decade (Billy Elliot) and Spielberg is also good with finding young talent (Christian Bale – Empire of the Sun). Thoughts ?
Phantom I do – but it’s just hard to count your chickens (War Horse) before they hatch….
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is my third favorite movie this year (I’m super behind tho) and as much as I enjoyed it, I wouldn’t nominate it. Deathly Hallows doesn’t belong at all. Sorry. Yates never got it right. Neither of those are going to have enough #1s. And even in a normal year, no way.
As far as people or movies being locked, it’s too early this year. Most of the films are unseen. Even Moneyball has only had one weekend. I think we need another month before locks start happening. The only movie that’s been around long enough to be a lock is Midnight in Paris but I don’t know if it is.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is my third favorite movie this year (I’m super behind tho) and as much as I enjoyed it, I wouldn’t nominate it. Deathly Hallows doesn’t belong at all. Sorry. Yates never got it right. Neither of those are going to have enough #1s. And even in a normal year, no way.
As far as people or movies being locked, it’s too early this year. Most of the films are unseen. Even Moneyball has only had one weekend. I think we need another month before locks start happening. The only movie that’s been around long enough to be a lock is Midnight in Paris but I don’t know if it is.
Great article.
Matt: ask not what Thin Red Line did in 1998, ask what The New World did in 2005. Look at Thin Red Line’s competition: Affliction? Gods and Monsters? Primary Colors? I loved Out of Sight and A Simple Plan but I realize why they don’t scream Best Picture. I think The Truman Show was the odd-man out here, the predicted finalist that didn’t make it. What can I say, the Academy hates Jim Carrey, perhaps because he does Jerry Lewis better than Jerry ever did, who knows. Also that nom was: Welcome Back Terry After 20 Years.
I loved loved loved Tree of Life. But I have a sinking feeling it’s not getting in to the BP circle.
My list is shorter than Sasha’s. I’d say:
The Help
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
We Need to Talk About Kevin
That’s it so far. These should get the year-end awards that matter. And even if they don’t, the last four are about kids, and I think sentimental prestige melodrama centered around kids tends to do well, like Atonement and The Blind Side and Winter’s Bone (Lovely Bones notwithstanding; that was a weird film). Two of the other ones are about artists in the 1920s, and that also seems like their cup of tea. (J Edgar sorta is too, but I have a feeling it’s going to underwhelm, and win nothing from major Critics Groups.) The last one is The Help. $200-million-earning race-relations historical melodrama? Its nomination is a stronger lock than that nerd’s mansion in Despicable Me.
Great article.
Matt: ask not what Thin Red Line did in 1998, ask what The New World did in 2005. Look at Thin Red Line’s competition: Affliction? Gods and Monsters? Primary Colors? I loved Out of Sight and A Simple Plan but I realize why they don’t scream Best Picture. I think The Truman Show was the odd-man out here, the predicted finalist that didn’t make it. What can I say, the Academy hates Jim Carrey, perhaps because he does Jerry Lewis better than Jerry ever did, who knows. Also that nom was: Welcome Back Terry After 20 Years.
I loved loved loved Tree of Life. But I have a sinking feeling it’s not getting in to the BP circle.
My list is shorter than Sasha’s. I’d say:
The Help
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
We Need to Talk About Kevin
That’s it so far. These should get the year-end awards that matter. And even if they don’t, the last four are about kids, and I think sentimental prestige melodrama centered around kids tends to do well, like Atonement and The Blind Side and Winter’s Bone (Lovely Bones notwithstanding; that was a weird film). Two of the other ones are about artists in the 1920s, and that also seems like their cup of tea. (J Edgar sorta is too, but I have a feeling it’s going to underwhelm, and win nothing from major Critics Groups.) The last one is The Help. $200-million-earning race-relations historical melodrama? Its nomination is a stronger lock than that nerd’s mansion in Despicable Me.
I consider ‘The Help’ a strong contender but definitely not a lock for the best picture nomination, simply because there are already SEVERAL inspirational/feel-good films WITH BETTER REVIEWS, so after (probably) voting for the „Loud-Artist-Horse-Paris-Moneyball” quintet, the Academy might be done with the “feelgoodfactor”.
Sure, The Help’s Box Office is outstanding, people clearly LOVE it, but critics only liked it and an August release usually NEEDS raves to survive the longlonglong Awards-season. Iknow, The Blind Side had mediocre reviews, as well…but The Blind Side was a November release in the old 10-slot best picture system, two luxuries ‘The Help’ doesn’t have.
I consider ‘The Help’ a strong contender but definitely not a lock for the best picture nomination, simply because there are already SEVERAL inspirational/feel-good films WITH BETTER REVIEWS, so after (probably) voting for the „Loud-Artist-Horse-Paris-Moneyball” quintet, the Academy might be done with the “feelgoodfactor”.
Sure, The Help’s Box Office is outstanding, people clearly LOVE it, but critics only liked it and an August release usually NEEDS raves to survive the longlonglong Awards-season. Iknow, The Blind Side had mediocre reviews, as well…but The Blind Side was a November release in the old 10-slot best picture system, two luxuries ‘The Help’ doesn’t have.
no keira knightley? even in supporting?
no keira knightley? even in supporting?
+1 Sasha 😉
you know my opinion on The Departed (great but not BP deserving) but there’s no need of having this “argument” continuously… it’s frustrating, repetitive and frankly boring… for everyone. That’s why a thing called “archives” exists in the world 😉
(and yes, I did see “Red State” already and damn I love that movie, I don’t care what the reviewers are saying… it’s damn good)
Meanwhile I ended up putting “probably” in front of the locked just to not jinx the potential nominees….
+1 Sasha 😉
you know my opinion on The Departed (great but not BP deserving) but there’s no need of having this “argument” continuously… it’s frustrating, repetitive and frankly boring… for everyone. That’s why a thing called “archives” exists in the world 😉
(and yes, I did see “Red State” already and damn I love that movie, I don’t care what the reviewers are saying… it’s damn good)
Meanwhile I ended up putting “probably” in front of the locked just to not jinx the potential nominees….
FYC:
Alan Rickman, Harry Potter, Supporting
Michael Parks, Lead Actor, Red State
John Goodman, Supp. Actor, Red State
Melissa Leo, Supp. Actress, Red State
Belen Rueda, Lead Actress, Julia’s Eyes
Picture: Harry Potter & Red State
Director: Kevin Smith, Red State
Original Screenplay: Red State
Adapted Screenplay: Harry Potter
FYC:
Alan Rickman, Harry Potter, Supporting
Michael Parks, Lead Actor, Red State
John Goodman, Supp. Actor, Red State
Melissa Leo, Supp. Actress, Red State
Belen Rueda, Lead Actress, Julia’s Eyes
Picture: Harry Potter & Red State
Director: Kevin Smith, Red State
Original Screenplay: Red State
Adapted Screenplay: Harry Potter
Sasha’s recent articles???
I am not sure if I should trust her work.
Sasha’s recent articles???
I am not sure if I should trust her work.
By all means don’t trust my work. To tell you the truth, I don’t care either way.
Sasha’s recent articles???
I am not sure if I should trust her work.
Sasha’s recent articles???
I am not sure if I should trust her work.
By all means don’t trust my work. To tell you the truth, I don’t care either way.
I think Sasha knows the game enough by now to know a lock when she sees it. as unpredictable as the game is, it’s pretty predictable.
I don’t see Drive being a majr contender, but I could see Nicolas Winding Refn in the director list
I think Sasha knows the game enough by now to know a lock when she sees it. as unpredictable as the game is, it’s pretty predictable.
I don’t see Drive being a majr contender, but I could see Nicolas Winding Refn in the director list
I have been wrong before, but at this point I believe that it is fair to say that The Help is pretty much a lock for Best Picture nomination. Uplifting films already have an added bonus with Academy members (King’s Speech anyone?), and although it technically a ‘unisex’ movie, I could easily imagine that plenty of female Academy members will place this movie at the top of their list, hence guaranteeing it the required number of number 1 votes.
Same goes for Viola Davis in the Best Actress category, because if Sandra Bullock could swagger her way to a win, a nomination for Davis should hardly be a big deal given that it is a better reviewed performance.
In contrast, I believe that although many people believe that the system will favor niche films such as Drive, I highly doubt that they will have such an impact if they go unnoticed in the precursors.
I have been wrong before, but at this point I believe that it is fair to say that The Help is pretty much a lock for Best Picture nomination. Uplifting films already have an added bonus with Academy members (King’s Speech anyone?), and although it technically a ‘unisex’ movie, I could easily imagine that plenty of female Academy members will place this movie at the top of their list, hence guaranteeing it the required number of number 1 votes.
Same goes for Viola Davis in the Best Actress category, because if Sandra Bullock could swagger her way to a win, a nomination for Davis should hardly be a big deal given that it is a better reviewed performance.
In contrast, I believe that although many people believe that the system will favor niche films such as Drive, I highly doubt that they will have such an impact if they go unnoticed in the precursors.
I wonder why people are underestimating Daniel Craig? I think that he has a fair shot at getting a nomination.
I wonder why people are underestimating Daniel Craig? I think that he has a fair shot at getting a nomination.
With suck a laughable statement in this article as “(he would later go on to win big with The Departed, nothing less than one of the best films ever to win the award).” I almost didn’t finish your article. The Departed was good…. it is not Scorcese’s best work by any means, much less among the best of the best picture winners. But I went ahead with the rest of the article reading it for the entertainment purposes for which it as obviously written. You seem to have a lot of locks consider it it still September.
Yo, Bud, I didn’t say it was Scorsese’s best film did I? I said it was one of Oscar’s best decisions for Best Picture, dude. Calm yourself. I’ve been doing this for 13 years and yeah, I get sick of having to have this argument with newbies every year.
With suck a laughable statement in this article as “(he would later go on to win big with The Departed, nothing less than one of the best films ever to win the award).” I almost didn’t finish your article. The Departed was good…. it is not Scorcese’s best work by any means, much less among the best of the best picture winners. But I went ahead with the rest of the article reading it for the entertainment purposes for which it as obviously written. You seem to have a lot of locks consider it it still September.
Yo, Bud, I didn’t say it was Scorsese’s best film did I? I said it was one of Oscar’s best decisions for Best Picture, dude. Calm yourself. I’ve been doing this for 13 years and yeah, I get sick of having to have this argument with newbies every year.
The Help will definitely be nominated. I think HP7 will to. Still haven’t seen it…
This year I’m all Tree of Life. There are others I like, but it’s just so amazing… And
Thin Red Line can’t get nominated with 5 and not Tree with 10?!?! Though yeah, Thin Red Line
was a war movie, so there’s that.
The Help will definitely be nominated. I think HP7 will to. Still haven’t seen it…
This year I’m all Tree of Life. There are others I like, but it’s just so amazing… And
Thin Red Line can’t get nominated with 5 and not Tree with 10?!?! Though yeah, Thin Red Line
was a war movie, so there’s that.
Harry Potter was so well done. It closed a whole series with different directors to make it feel organic. As it was always going to go that direction.
Plus, Alan Rickman deserves his nomination.
Harry Potter was so well done. It closed a whole series with different directors to make it feel organic. As it was always going to go that direction.
Plus, Alan Rickman deserves his nomination.
I think Viola Davis will be placed in lead actress. I’m not so sure Oldman is a lock.
Vera Farmiga’s film, while good, is more of a Spirit Award phenom.
Oh god, Vera Farmiga. Forgot another one!
I think Viola Davis will be placed in lead actress. I’m not so sure Oldman is a lock.
Vera Farmiga’s film, while good, is more of a Spirit Award phenom.
Oh god, Vera Farmiga. Forgot another one!
Sasha, I am absolutely dying to know the logic behind so many people backing up Midnight In Paris, The Help, and The Artist. And I have no negative biases – I have yet to see The Help or The Artist, and I absolutely loved Midnight In Paris. I just could not disagree more – and I could be completely wrong, I’d take your opinion over my own – that either of these 3 have even a remote shot at best picture. To be nominated you have to have a pretty solid number of number 1 votes right? What I don’t understand is how so many Oscar prognosticators think that that many people will really put down these movies (and I’m speaking mainly for The Help and Midnight In Paris) as their NUMBER ONE movie of the year. If we were back to doing things the normal way, I could easily see these two sliding in in people’s later rankings, but number 1? I feel like these movies are very small and inconsequential and will not triumph over bigger movies that more people are likely to remember. Again, I could be totally wrong, I’m just dying to know why the Oscar experts are pushing so hard for these. Much like with Moneyball, I feel like people are ignoring the new rules and trying to guess on the Oscar race based on the old rules. I have a strong feeling that we all might be surprised to see the nominations look more like Drive, The Tree of Life, and The Descendents, because while lots of people aren’t as into them, there are way more people that would put them at number 1 than The Help or Midnight In Paris.
Could you maybe explain the thinking to me? I am really curious.
Sure, Felix. The way it works is this. 6,000 Academy members are going to turn in ballots for Best Picture. The first round of counting, they take only those films that got number one votes. The second round of counting, they take those number ones and they find a magic number. Let’s say it’s around 185 (I’m pretty sure this is the first magic number). THey throw out those movies that got number one votes but not enough. So imagine which films 6,000 people from all walks of life – actors, writers, animators, designers, executives, old people, young people, mostly men but some women — would put as their favorite film of the year. They then take the remaining ballots that didn’t have their number one films picked and they take their number 2s if their number 2 already has a pile of number 1s. If their number 2 is not already represented, they then take their number 3 and so on until they find a film on that ballot — that total outsider freak’s ballot – that is represented in the number 1 piles. There’s a pretty good chance wildly popular films like The Help, Midnight and especially The Artist will hit at number 1. But it’s even more likely that they will reside in a voter’s top 3.
It’s not for sure, of course, but it’s pretty likely. From there, they start counting the piles — and then there’s a new magic number, something like 350 or so. Finally, they arrive at their nominees and supposedly it will be between 6 and 8. It doesn’t have to be ten. Like if they don’t get enough number ones to have ten nominees, they won’t. They could have only five, theoretically.
I think it’s a stupid way to pick best picture of the year but whatever. Rolling with it.
So then I go and I look at how the general public are responding to various films because that is where you are going to find more in common with Oscar voters than what the critics think – as we learned very painfully last year. The King’s Speech had a solid A on yahoo movies with something like 14,000 people voting. The only movie in Oscar contention right now with that kind of grade? The Help. It should have no problem sailing into a BP nom. Midnight in Paris has an A- with 1400 ratings. Popular, loved, Woody Allen. Hard to imagine it not getting the first round of 160 votes (although it’s possible – it seems like the toughest sell to me for some reason – but I have to figure it IS one of the best films of the year so it’s in). Finally, The Artist. This is the easiest call of the three because if there was one movie people were talking about Cannes, talking about at Telluride, talking about at Toronto and will be talking about during the Oscars it’s The Artist. It’s a no-brainer. It will be beloved, especially by Academy members.
By the way, in Telluride I asked Joe Morgenstern, film critic of the Wall St. Journal what his favorite movie of the year was and he said Midnight in Paris.
Almost everyone else I asked said The Artist.
Hope that answers it.
Sasha, I am absolutely dying to know the logic behind so many people backing up Midnight In Paris, The Help, and The Artist. And I have no negative biases – I have yet to see The Help or The Artist, and I absolutely loved Midnight In Paris. I just could not disagree more – and I could be completely wrong, I’d take your opinion over my own – that either of these 3 have even a remote shot at best picture. To be nominated you have to have a pretty solid number of number 1 votes right? What I don’t understand is how so many Oscar prognosticators think that that many people will really put down these movies (and I’m speaking mainly for The Help and Midnight In Paris) as their NUMBER ONE movie of the year. If we were back to doing things the normal way, I could easily see these two sliding in in people’s later rankings, but number 1? I feel like these movies are very small and inconsequential and will not triumph over bigger movies that more people are likely to remember. Again, I could be totally wrong, I’m just dying to know why the Oscar experts are pushing so hard for these. Much like with Moneyball, I feel like people are ignoring the new rules and trying to guess on the Oscar race based on the old rules. I have a strong feeling that we all might be surprised to see the nominations look more like Drive, The Tree of Life, and The Descendents, because while lots of people aren’t as into them, there are way more people that would put them at number 1 than The Help or Midnight In Paris.
Could you maybe explain the thinking to me? I am really curious.
Sure, Felix. The way it works is this. 6,000 Academy members are going to turn in ballots for Best Picture. The first round of counting, they take only those films that got number one votes. The second round of counting, they take those number ones and they find a magic number. Let’s say it’s around 185 (I’m pretty sure this is the first magic number). THey throw out those movies that got number one votes but not enough. So imagine which films 6,000 people from all walks of life – actors, writers, animators, designers, executives, old people, young people, mostly men but some women — would put as their favorite film of the year. They then take the remaining ballots that didn’t have their number one films picked and they take their number 2s if their number 2 already has a pile of number 1s. If their number 2 is not already represented, they then take their number 3 and so on until they find a film on that ballot — that total outsider freak’s ballot – that is represented in the number 1 piles. There’s a pretty good chance wildly popular films like The Help, Midnight and especially The Artist will hit at number 1. But it’s even more likely that they will reside in a voter’s top 3.
It’s not for sure, of course, but it’s pretty likely. From there, they start counting the piles — and then there’s a new magic number, something like 350 or so. Finally, they arrive at their nominees and supposedly it will be between 6 and 8. It doesn’t have to be ten. Like if they don’t get enough number ones to have ten nominees, they won’t. They could have only five, theoretically.
I think it’s a stupid way to pick best picture of the year but whatever. Rolling with it.
So then I go and I look at how the general public are responding to various films because that is where you are going to find more in common with Oscar voters than what the critics think – as we learned very painfully last year. The King’s Speech had a solid A on yahoo movies with something like 14,000 people voting. The only movie in Oscar contention right now with that kind of grade? The Help. It should have no problem sailing into a BP nom. Midnight in Paris has an A- with 1400 ratings. Popular, loved, Woody Allen. Hard to imagine it not getting the first round of 160 votes (although it’s possible – it seems like the toughest sell to me for some reason – but I have to figure it IS one of the best films of the year so it’s in). Finally, The Artist. This is the easiest call of the three because if there was one movie people were talking about Cannes, talking about at Telluride, talking about at Toronto and will be talking about during the Oscars it’s The Artist. It’s a no-brainer. It will be beloved, especially by Academy members.
By the way, in Telluride I asked Joe Morgenstern, film critic of the Wall St. Journal what his favorite movie of the year was and he said Midnight in Paris.
Almost everyone else I asked said The Artist.
Hope that answers it.
Argh… I always cringe when I remember The Reader is a Best Picture nominee when films like Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Dark Knight aren’t.
Dujardin is locked? I can see a lot of dissent coming up soon. Inevitably some prognosticators will say he’s only doing half the work of the other leading men.
Argh… I always cringe when I remember The Reader is a Best Picture nominee when films like Doubt, The Wrestler, and The Dark Knight aren’t.
Dujardin is locked? I can see a lot of dissent coming up soon. Inevitably some prognosticators will say he’s only doing half the work of the other leading men.
Keira Knightly for Dangerous Method! But will she go support?
Keira Knightly for Dangerous Method! But will she go support?
WOW, Sasha we agreed mostly, 9 out of 10, I predicted Deathly Hallows instead of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy :
http://awardscorner.blogspot.com/2011/09/2011-best-picture-iii.html
WOW, Sasha we agreed mostly, 9 out of 10, I predicted Deathly Hallows instead of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy :
http://awardscorner.blogspot.com/2011/09/2011-best-picture-iii.html
I think you tend to overestimate who or what is “locked” at this point. IF for example J Edgar is mediocre, why should it automatically propel Leo to a secure nomination? I don’t quite think it works that way (even though it DID work that way for Morgan Freeman in Invictus). IF Charlize Theron delivers the goods in Young Adult of course she can push some of the other competitors aside – and IF Streep is overacting The Iron Lady (where it is all about Streep and not too much about Thatcher) and the film is bad as well, I firmly believe that not even Streep is a lock. It is still about quality. Otherwise we can pretty much dispense with this whole thing. You said it yourself recently, Sasha, about the best picture race: at this point in the race it is about the quality of the movie. I believe it boils down to the same essentials when we consider performances.
If there was room for Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine last year, for Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson some years ago, and for Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom, of course a good campaign and critical recognition can prove to enough as well for the likes of Fassbender, Olsen or Bechir. At least, I hope so. Predictability is a bore (besides being the greatest danger for the whole Oscar enterprise)
I think you tend to overestimate who or what is “locked” at this point. IF for example J Edgar is mediocre, why should it automatically propel Leo to a secure nomination? I don’t quite think it works that way (even though it DID work that way for Morgan Freeman in Invictus). IF Charlize Theron delivers the goods in Young Adult of course she can push some of the other competitors aside – and IF Streep is overacting The Iron Lady (where it is all about Streep and not too much about Thatcher) and the film is bad as well, I firmly believe that not even Streep is a lock. It is still about quality. Otherwise we can pretty much dispense with this whole thing. You said it yourself recently, Sasha, about the best picture race: at this point in the race it is about the quality of the movie. I believe it boils down to the same essentials when we consider performances.
If there was room for Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine last year, for Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson some years ago, and for Jacki Weaver last year for Animal Kingdom, of course a good campaign and critical recognition can prove to enough as well for the likes of Fassbender, Olsen or Bechir. At least, I hope so. Predictability is a bore (besides being the greatest danger for the whole Oscar enterprise)
I’m pretty sure you forgot The Help on the best picture list. No way it isn’t a big contender.
Thanks Mike – I did forget it. Of course you all know that I think it’s a contender….
I’m pretty sure you forgot The Help on the best picture list. No way it isn’t a big contender.
Thanks Mike – I did forget it. Of course you all know that I think it’s a contender….
My recollection of the M$B situation was that WB wasn’t going to release the film until 2005, but after test screenings of Alexander were a disaster, the studio quickly set up screenings of M$B and the rest is history. I remember reading about Alexander the week of November 14th and M$B the next week.
My recollection of the M$B situation was that WB wasn’t going to release the film until 2005, but after test screenings of Alexander were a disaster, the studio quickly set up screenings of M$B and the rest is history. I remember reading about Alexander the week of November 14th and M$B the next week.
I wish there was a way Higher Ground, and Vera Farmiga, would be a part of the conversation. But quiet reflections on faith aren’t exactly Oscar bait I guess. She should have thrown some plates and had some more scenery chewing meltdowns.
I wish there was a way Higher Ground, and Vera Farmiga, would be a part of the conversation. But quiet reflections on faith aren’t exactly Oscar bait I guess. She should have thrown some plates and had some more scenery chewing meltdowns.
Sasha again no Elizabth Olsen or Keira Knightley in the Best Actress race but you list Emma Stone, Kristen Dunst and Emily Watson? I am pretty confused. And since you said few days ago that it was too early to talk about sure predictions how is it that now many of these actors/actresses are locked or mostly locked? I am not even sure about how many movies will be nominated.
Thanks, AD. I forgot Olsen….Knightley – not sure. But I should put her down I suppose.
Sasha again no Elizabth Olsen or Keira Knightley in the Best Actress race but you list Emma Stone, Kristen Dunst and Emily Watson? I am pretty confused. And since you said few days ago that it was too early to talk about sure predictions how is it that now many of these actors/actresses are locked or mostly locked? I am not even sure about how many movies will be nominated.
Thanks, AD. I forgot Olsen….Knightley – not sure. But I should put her down I suppose.
Sasha, I’m surprised at you. There are no locks at this time of year, never. There are films which seem like locks, and eventually turn out to be locks, but it’s much too early to make these claims yet, I think, and I don’t see your reasoning behind claiming that Tilda Swinton is ‘mostly locked’. And there’s no way in hell Chris Evans will be nominated – Puncture hasn’t made much of a splash at the box office this weekend. Also, don’t forget about Keira Knightley – you didn’t mention her above.
Well Paddy M they are as locked as they’re going to be but yeah you’re right. This time last year I had all Best Picture nominees correct except one. Black Swan. My point with this piece is that the ball gets rolling pretty early for Oscar. There are surprises along the way but they are usually wishful thinking and few and far between. It’s almost October anyway — but yeah some things could shift. I think Pitt and Clooney are locks.
Sasha, I’m surprised at you. There are no locks at this time of year, never. There are films which seem like locks, and eventually turn out to be locks, but it’s much too early to make these claims yet, I think, and I don’t see your reasoning behind claiming that Tilda Swinton is ‘mostly locked’. And there’s no way in hell Chris Evans will be nominated – Puncture hasn’t made much of a splash at the box office this weekend. Also, don’t forget about Keira Knightley – you didn’t mention her above.
Well Paddy M they are as locked as they’re going to be but yeah you’re right. This time last year I had all Best Picture nominees correct except one. Black Swan. My point with this piece is that the ball gets rolling pretty early for Oscar. There are surprises along the way but they are usually wishful thinking and few and far between. It’s almost October anyway — but yeah some things could shift. I think Pitt and Clooney are locks.
I thought that THE HELP was pretty much a lock for Best Picture?
I thought that THE HELP was pretty much a lock for Best Picture?
i really don’t feel like brad pitt is a lock. He’s BRAD PITT, but the performance was not memorably, and i don’t know if many will remember it by the end of the year.
i really don’t feel like brad pitt is a lock. He’s BRAD PITT, but the performance was not memorably, and i don’t know if many will remember it by the end of the year.