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Prognosticating the Gotham nominees

Peter Knegt at IndieWire takes a swing at forecasting tomorrow’s Gotham nominees, and comes up with this list of likelys for Best Feature.

  • The Descendants
  • Drive
  • Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Take Shelter
  • The Tree of Life

Peter names these alternative possibilities: Midnight in Paris, We Need To Talk About Kevin, Like Crazy, Pariah, Win Win, Rampart, Jane Eyre, Beginners.  Surprisingly (or not), he’s rather quick to write off  Oscar hopes for any Indies other than The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and Tree of Life.  (He lists altogether 16 films that he thinks will figure significantly in tomorrow’s Gotham categories, after the cut.)

He notes that the Gothams allow for Indies with bigger budgets — a bar that will exclude Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris from the Spirit Awards. Likewise, international indies like Shame and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy are probably ineligible for Gotham nominations because their rules stipulate films “must be directed and/or produced by a US born or based filmmaker.”

• Jonathan Levine’s “50/50”
• Mike Mills’ “Beginners”
• Maryam Keshavarz’s “Circumstance”
• Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants”
• Nicolas Winding Refn’s “Drive”
• Miranda July’s “The Future”
• Cary Fukunaga’s “Jane Eyre”
• Drake Doremus’ “Like Crazy”
• Sean Durkin’s “Martha Marcy May Marlene”
• Kelly Reichardt’s “Meek’s Cutoff”
• Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris”
• Dee Rees’ “Pariah”
• Oren Moverman’s “Rampart”
• Jeff Nichols’ “Take Shelter”
• Terrence Malick’s “The Tree of Life”
• Lynne Ramsay’s “We Need To Talk About Kevin”

Knegt’s predictions in other categories:

Best Cast Ensemble:
The predicted five:

  • 50/50
  • Drive
  • Jane Eyre
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Win Win

But watch out for:
The Descendants
Meek’s Cutoff
Martha Marcy May Marlene

Best Breakthrough Director:
The predicted five:

  • Mike Cahill, Another Earth
  • Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Evan Glodell, Bellflower
  • Maryam Keshavarz, Circumstance
  • Dee Rees, Pariah

But watch out for:
Drake Doremus, Like Crazy (though its his second feature)
Vera Farmiga, Higher Ground
Rashaad Ernesto Green, Gun Hill Road

Best Breakthrough Performance:
The predicted five:

  • Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter (or The Tree of Life?)
  • Ezra Miller, We Need To Talk About Kevin
  • Adepero Oduye, Pariah
  • Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
  • Shailenne Woodley, The Descendants

But watch out for:
Felicity Jones, Like Crazy
Brit Marling, Another Earth
Hunter McCracken, The Tree of Life
Hamish Linklater, The Future
Nikohl Boosheri, Circumstance