Movieline’s Stu Van Airsdale has got his finger on the pulse of the race, or at least of our collective perceptions of the race. You know, Academy members simply fill the house, watch the screeners, vote for what they like best. It couldn’t be more simple and yet, and yet…we know that perceptions, like them or not, play a part. We know that popularity plays a part. We know that prejudices (dislike for directors who are “too good” to win) exist. We know that votes can sometimes be swayed. We know that publicity, for the most part, helps.
Stu starts us off with Best Picture:
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. War Horse
3. The Artist
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. Hugo
9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
10. J. Edgar
It’s interesting to me that Hugo is on the list at all, let alone above Dragon Tattoo. He is smartly not giving up on J. Edgar. With positive reviews from Kenneth Turan at the LA Times and Manohla Dargis at the NY Times, etc. J. Edgar is not quite out of the race. Interestingly, it was also panned by the Ann Hornaday at the Washington Post, Stephanie Zacharek at Movieline, etc. Most are writing it off. I’m not quite prepared to yet either. There are still going to be supporters of J. Edgar to get it through the first round at least (where it needs only 50 or 60 number 1 votes). It’s the second round where divisive films will struggle. Love it/hate it ain’t gonna fly — you’re looking for films that are going to be the surplus films’ second choice – the Artist’s second choice, The Help’s second choice, etc.
He then moves on to Director:
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Outsiders: Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
I think he’s mostly right here. But there are variables. He’s listed them, mostly. I’d add Steve McQueen for Shame who, I think, actually has a really good chance to get a lone director nod, along with Terrence Malick for Tree of Life. In the DGA of old they would have had the balls to nominate directors who might not have corresponding Picture nominations – because Oscars old school really did lead with the director. I’m not so sure it does anymore. But we’ll have to see how it pans out over the next few years. If I were a voting member of the DGA I would be ashamed of myself if I didn’t put Shame on my list. But that’s just me. They’re working directors. I am just an Oscar blogger.
You have to figure all of those listen above could be frontrunners, except perhaps Woody Allen. They most sit in the if/then scenarios — Alexander Payne is way, way overdue. He is the kind of director who might win if there is a split between Picture and Director. But the secret weapon here, and I know because I met him yesterday, is the brilliant, intelligent force to be reckoned with, Michel Hazanavicius. When Academy members get a load of him he will be hard to resist. The dude knows everything about American film. God love the French. He references Hitchcock, Welles, Scorsese — his favorite director is Billy Wilder (okay, not American but made some of the best American films ever made). In fact, Hazanavicius could easily sit face to face with Martin Scorsese, Woody Allen and Steve Spielberg and yarn on and on about the greatest films ever made. Please someone make that conversation happen.
Right now, I’m counting on a win for The Artist and Hazanavicius for Director. Unless something comes along to change that.
The Artist and Hugo are partners in more ways than just the general knowledge of cinema by their adept directors.Both are about the movies. And, as Bill Desowitz pointed yesterday, they are polar opposites. Hugo is about French cinema made by Americans and The Artist is made by French people about American film. Another reporter suggested that one is a symphony and one is a lecture. But to me they’re both symphonies. It’s a marvelous Oscar year to have these two films alone in the race, let alone all of the other great ones I’ve seen — films I can’t wait for everyone else to see.
Jeremie, I agree with Julian: your list shows that Eastwood’s movies are only nominated for top awards when his films are well-received. I also feel like the Academy has sort of cooled on Eastwood in the last five years. They didn’t nominate Gran Torino for anything despite speculation that they would, and Invictus didn’t get nominated for Best Picture despite the fact that everyone was predicting it. I’m sure AMPAS’s mind can change back, but I don’t think Eastwood’s worst-reviewed film is the one to do it.
And it’s not true to say that all the top critics gave J. Edgar positive reviews. Variety didn’t care much for it, nor did Mick LaSalle or Richard Corliss.
Jeremie, I agree with Julian: your list shows that Eastwood’s movies are only nominated for top awards when his films are well-received. I also feel like the Academy has sort of cooled on Eastwood in the last five years. They didn’t nominate Gran Torino for anything despite speculation that they would, and Invictus didn’t get nominated for Best Picture despite the fact that everyone was predicting it. I’m sure AMPAS’s mind can change back, but I don’t think Eastwood’s worst-reviewed film is the one to do it.
And it’s not true to say that all the top critics gave J. Edgar positive reviews. Variety didn’t care much for it, nor did Mick LaSalle or Richard Corliss.
It is strange with this Daldry guy (an a 5/5 record would indeed be ridiculous!).
The man has made some pleasant films, but to me his films lack any real sense of artistic personality. He is not exactly a great auteur, I mean!…
Oh well, for me the final five will be something like this: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Fincher, Payne and Malick (on the fifth spot – in tough competition with Allen and Daldry)
It is strange with this Daldry guy (an a 5/5 record would indeed be ridiculous!).
The man has made some pleasant films, but to me his films lack any real sense of artistic personality. He is not exactly a great auteur, I mean!…
Oh well, for me the final five will be something like this: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Fincher, Payne and Malick (on the fifth spot – in tough competition with Allen and Daldry)
It’s hard. Maybe I should just stick to the Hazman to win. It’s the side of me that is tired of Dir/Pic going hand in hand – always waiting for splits.
It’s hard. Maybe I should just stick to the Hazman to win. It’s the side of me that is tired of Dir/Pic going hand in hand – always waiting for splits.
Dadldry wining? In the year where Malick, Fincher, Allen, Spielberg have a film out, and all other wonderful films have been released and noticed? I cannot imagine it. I just can’t. That’d be even worse than last year with Hooper.
And I don’t see two brits wining in a row, especially with such a fierce American competition (and The Artist patiently waiting).
Plus the first very early words on Extremely Lound Incredibly Close haven’t been too great. But I guess that what I said about Eastwood, also applies for Daldry. You never know with him. After The Reader’s precedent, we know that even if ELIC is a flop and doesn’t convince critics, it could still make the cut.
Dadldry wining? In the year where Malick, Fincher, Allen, Spielberg have a film out, and all other wonderful films have been released and noticed? I cannot imagine it. I just can’t. That’d be even worse than last year with Hooper.
And I don’t see two brits wining in a row, especially with such a fierce American competition (and The Artist patiently waiting).
Plus the first very early words on Extremely Lound Incredibly Close haven’t been too great. But I guess that what I said about Eastwood, also applies for Daldry. You never know with him. After The Reader’s precedent, we know that even if ELIC is a flop and doesn’t convince critics, it could still make the cut.
It is tricky. But to be fair, I’m not sure this coming weeks are going to be that helpful either. Imagine if all of them are successful (Hugo, Tattoo, Extremely Loud, Spielberg…). It might become a nightmare to pick just 5. I don’t remember any year to be that messy. But I do love it as well. It certainly makes the game more exciting.
I think Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, Spielberg are probably the safest best right now. For the 5th spot, I’d have no idea. I don’t feel Dadldry for some reason (5 out 5, come on! This has to stop at some point, it’s getting ridiculous. I’ve got nothing against the guy, he is talented, but he certainly doesn’t deserve such a resume!), Fincher is the big mystery (violent film yes, but after last year’s snub, and if the film is massive BO success, they might not be able to ignore him), and the rest is a big wide unknown (some are even starting to mention Jolie for In the Land of Blood and Honey ffs!).
I feel that critics’ lists this year are going to be all over the place.
So yep, Good luck with your article!
It is tricky. But to be fair, I’m not sure this coming weeks are going to be that helpful either. Imagine if all of them are successful (Hugo, Tattoo, Extremely Loud, Spielberg…). It might become a nightmare to pick just 5. I don’t remember any year to be that messy. But I do love it as well. It certainly makes the game more exciting.
I think Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, Spielberg are probably the safest best right now. For the 5th spot, I’d have no idea. I don’t feel Dadldry for some reason (5 out 5, come on! This has to stop at some point, it’s getting ridiculous. I’ve got nothing against the guy, he is talented, but he certainly doesn’t deserve such a resume!), Fincher is the big mystery (violent film yes, but after last year’s snub, and if the film is massive BO success, they might not be able to ignore him), and the rest is a big wide unknown (some are even starting to mention Jolie for In the Land of Blood and Honey ffs!).
I feel that critics’ lists this year are going to be all over the place.
So yep, Good luck with your article!
Also, with the above, I see Daldry winning Director. The 4/4 will not go unnoticed and The Artist getting Picture smells like a split. A foreign director whose name they can’t even pronounce. I will probably have to take this back after Hazanavicius wins all the possible Directing awards (it IS a director’s picture).
Spielberg waits for another year unless Tintin is his consolation prize in Animation. I just don’t see them splitting Spielberg/his film again. And I don’t think The Artist can be beaten by anything. Some kind of negative campaigning must occur if it was to lose.
Malick is making 2-3 pictures a year now, Academy knows this. Payne is possible, but they obviously LOVE Daldry more. And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
Also, with the above, I see Daldry winning Director. The 4/4 will not go unnoticed and The Artist getting Picture smells like a split. A foreign director whose name they can’t even pronounce. I will probably have to take this back after Hazanavicius wins all the possible Directing awards (it IS a director’s picture).
Spielberg waits for another year unless Tintin is his consolation prize in Animation. I just don’t see them splitting Spielberg/his film again. And I don’t think The Artist can be beaten by anything. Some kind of negative campaigning must occur if it was to lose.
Malick is making 2-3 pictures a year now, Academy knows this. Payne is possible, but they obviously LOVE Daldry more. And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
It is crowded. I have to make my annual predictions for this one movie magazine on the 21st when nothing has been giving out yet. And once the December issue comes out two weeks later, we are already smarter.
Right now, I’m FEELING:
-Daldry (4/4 – I was resisting the idea, but have accepted now)
-Hazanavicius (a real lock / also fills the not-so-rare foreign spot)
-Malick (unfortunately I see this as the David Lynch nominee)
-Payne (has to be a lock)
-Spielberg (it’s Spielberg, duh, and Tintin should even help)
As default, I should expect that all these guys’ pictures are also nominated – even The Tree of Life. I will add two more (cause 7 is the magic number, no?). The Help and Moneyball. This IF I had to write the article today, it probably changes in a week. But if I do the above, I’ll probably get it some 70% correct when playing this safe. Last year I got Picture 10/10, but so did every other guy. This is tough – and I LOVE IT.
Midnight in Paris – they love Allen in writing. Dragon Tattoo – probably more like Seven and Zodiac than the last two non-violent ones. If 8 spots, I see Tinker Tailor getting it.
It is crowded. I have to make my annual predictions for this one movie magazine on the 21st when nothing has been giving out yet. And once the December issue comes out two weeks later, we are already smarter.
Right now, I’m FEELING:
-Daldry (4/4 – I was resisting the idea, but have accepted now)
-Hazanavicius (a real lock / also fills the not-so-rare foreign spot)
-Malick (unfortunately I see this as the David Lynch nominee)
-Payne (has to be a lock)
-Spielberg (it’s Spielberg, duh, and Tintin should even help)
As default, I should expect that all these guys’ pictures are also nominated – even The Tree of Life. I will add two more (cause 7 is the magic number, no?). The Help and Moneyball. This IF I had to write the article today, it probably changes in a week. But if I do the above, I’ll probably get it some 70% correct when playing this safe. Last year I got Picture 10/10, but so did every other guy. This is tough – and I LOVE IT.
Midnight in Paris – they love Allen in writing. Dragon Tattoo – probably more like Seven and Zodiac than the last two non-violent ones. If 8 spots, I see Tinker Tailor getting it.
That’s because you know me well Tero 😉 (and glad to see you back, hope you recovered from the heated War Horse discussions!)
On Hugo, I don’t know either. I think Hazanavicius and Payne are safe bets (and even so I’m not that entirely convinced for the former).
After that, I don’t see Miller making the cut for Moneyball (but that’s because I’m sceptical towards the film in general, so I could be very wrong) nor do I see Clooney for Ides of March.
I think Woody Allen has actually a pretty good shot. So that would leave two spots: a surprise indie spot ala David Lynch for either Alfredson, McQueen, Winding Refn or Malick. And a last spot between Fincher and Scorsese. Both will depends on critical and commercial success. If Hugo manages to be a big Christmas hit, Scorsese could make it IMO.
So yep, right now I would say:
Payne
Hazanavicius
Allen
Malick
Fincher or Scorsese
Oh and I forgot Daldry. Don’t know what to make of him…
That’s because you know me well Tero 😉 (and glad to see you back, hope you recovered from the heated War Horse discussions!)
On Hugo, I don’t know either. I think Hazanavicius and Payne are safe bets (and even so I’m not that entirely convinced for the former).
After that, I don’t see Miller making the cut for Moneyball (but that’s because I’m sceptical towards the film in general, so I could be very wrong) nor do I see Clooney for Ides of March.
I think Woody Allen has actually a pretty good shot. So that would leave two spots: a surprise indie spot ala David Lynch for either Alfredson, McQueen, Winding Refn or Malick. And a last spot between Fincher and Scorsese. Both will depends on critical and commercial success. If Hugo manages to be a big Christmas hit, Scorsese could make it IMO.
So yep, right now I would say:
Payne
Hazanavicius
Allen
Malick
Fincher or Scorsese
Oh and I forgot Daldry. Don’t know what to make of him…
And why I was trying to prove with these numbers is what I’ve said above:
1) You should never discount an Eastwood’s film when it comes to Oscar;
and that
2) I don’t think this ridiculously low 40% is in any way representative of the quality of the film, and certainly not an indication of how the AMPAS members will react to the film.
And why I was trying to prove with these numbers is what I’ve said above:
1) You should never discount an Eastwood’s film when it comes to Oscar;
and that
2) I don’t think this ridiculously low 40% is in any way representative of the quality of the film, and certainly not an indication of how the AMPAS members will react to the film.
Eastwood won’t get in for best direction, Jeremie!
I agree, Leo is a near-lock, Hammer is a possibility (but not a big one). But direction? And who should he push out? Payne, Fincher, Spielberg, Haznavicious, Allen, Daldry…the list goes on. With a poorly received movie like J Edgar there’s a very slim chance…
Besides, what your list of his previous films show, is that Eastwood is nominated for bp and direction when he gets a good critical reaction! So you are practically delivering a perfect argument for why he is NOT going to be nominated this year! Your numbers clearly illustrate that his biggest Oscar movies are the very well-received ones (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Letters from…), whereas he fails to get individual nominations when the reviews are less than stellar. So I don’t know what you are trying to prove with these numbers….??
Eastwood won’t get in for best direction, Jeremie!
I agree, Leo is a near-lock, Hammer is a possibility (but not a big one). But direction? And who should he push out? Payne, Fincher, Spielberg, Haznavicious, Allen, Daldry…the list goes on. With a poorly received movie like J Edgar there’s a very slim chance…
Besides, what your list of his previous films show, is that Eastwood is nominated for bp and direction when he gets a good critical reaction! So you are practically delivering a perfect argument for why he is NOT going to be nominated this year! Your numbers clearly illustrate that his biggest Oscar movies are the very well-received ones (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Letters from…), whereas he fails to get individual nominations when the reviews are less than stellar. So I don’t know what you are trying to prove with these numbers….??
But yeah everybody knows that J. Edgar is unlikely to get a nomination for Best Pic (especially with the new rule this year), but it still has a million more chance to do so than HP42.
But yeah everybody knows that J. Edgar is unlikely to get a nomination for Best Pic (especially with the new rule this year), but it still has a million more chance to do so than HP42.
And thank god, WB PR team is not run by 6 yo playing tea parties.
At this point, I’d say J. Edgar is likely to get a nomination for Actor, Sup. Actor, Make-up and Best Direction. I see it in a similar situation that Changeling was in 2008.
And thank god, WB PR team is not run by 6 yo playing tea parties.
At this point, I’d say J. Edgar is likely to get a nomination for Actor, Sup. Actor, Make-up and Best Direction. I see it in a similar situation that Changeling was in 2008.
The only problem, I think, with your theories discounting J. Edgar, is that you seem to forget one big factor: Clint Eastwood. A living legend who has a respect which goes far beyond any stinky critics on RT.
I’m always suspicious when it comes to Oscar prognostics with the help of RT, Metacritic and co, and especially when it concerns Eastwood.
Let’s have a look at the films he made in the last 25 years (with RT scores and Oscar nominations)
– J. Edgar (2011) : 40%
– Hereafter (2010): 46% / 1 Nomination
– Invictus (2009): 75% / 2 Nominations
– Gran Torino (2008): 80% / 0 Nomination
– Changeling (2008): 62% / 3 Nominations
– Letters from Iwo Jima (2006): 91% / 4 Nominations / 1 Wins
– Flags of Our Fathers (2006): 73% / 2 Nominations
– Million Dollar Baby (2004): 92% / 7 Nominations / 4 Wins
– Mystic River (2003): 87% / 6 Nominations / 2 Wins
– Blood Work (2002): 53% / 0 Nomination
– Space Cowboys (2000): 79% / 1 Nomination
– True Crime (1999): 54% / 0 Nomination
– Absolute Power (1997): 45% / 0 Nomination
– Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil (1997): 47% / 0 Nomination
– The Bridges of Madison County (1995): 90% / 1 Nomination
– A Perfect World (1993): 79% / 0 Nomination
– Unforgiven (1992): 96% / 9 Nominations / 4 Wins
– White Hunter Black Heart (1990): 85% / 0 Nomination
– Bird (1988): 74% / 1 Nomination
– Pale Rider : 92% (1985) / 0 Nomination
I think that shows a few things.
First, that in the last 25 years Eastwood’s films have been nominated for a total of 37 Oscars (and have won 11). 12 of these noms were for Actors & Actresses (with 5 wins). Out of 19 films, 11 have received have received at least a nomination, and 4 have been nominated for Best Films (wining twice with Best Director). That’s quite a treat in my opinion. And I don’t think that can be ignored when it comes to the likely nomination of his future films.
The other thing we can learn from this list, is that his worst reviewed film, in 25 years, is… J. Edgar.
Which means that Blood Work, True Crime, Absolute Power… are all supposed to be better than this one according to critics (or to RT ratings), and by quite a big margin. Somehow I find that extremely difficult to believe.
But considering the general trend with younger critics and bloggers to trash Eastwood, I think this 40% score is easy to understand (and strangely all top respected critics are positive).
Mixing all that together, I wouldn’t count J. Edgar out just yet.
The only problem, I think, with your theories discounting J. Edgar, is that you seem to forget one big factor: Clint Eastwood. A living legend who has a respect which goes far beyond any stinky critics on RT.
I’m always suspicious when it comes to Oscar prognostics with the help of RT, Metacritic and co, and especially when it concerns Eastwood.
Let’s have a look at the films he made in the last 25 years (with RT scores and Oscar nominations)
– J. Edgar (2011) : 40%
– Hereafter (2010): 46% / 1 Nomination
– Invictus (2009): 75% / 2 Nominations
– Gran Torino (2008): 80% / 0 Nomination
– Changeling (2008): 62% / 3 Nominations
– Letters from Iwo Jima (2006): 91% / 4 Nominations / 1 Wins
– Flags of Our Fathers (2006): 73% / 2 Nominations
– Million Dollar Baby (2004): 92% / 7 Nominations / 4 Wins
– Mystic River (2003): 87% / 6 Nominations / 2 Wins
– Blood Work (2002): 53% / 0 Nomination
– Space Cowboys (2000): 79% / 1 Nomination
– True Crime (1999): 54% / 0 Nomination
– Absolute Power (1997): 45% / 0 Nomination
– Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil (1997): 47% / 0 Nomination
– The Bridges of Madison County (1995): 90% / 1 Nomination
– A Perfect World (1993): 79% / 0 Nomination
– Unforgiven (1992): 96% / 9 Nominations / 4 Wins
– White Hunter Black Heart (1990): 85% / 0 Nomination
– Bird (1988): 74% / 1 Nomination
– Pale Rider : 92% (1985) / 0 Nomination
I think that shows a few things.
First, that in the last 25 years Eastwood’s films have been nominated for a total of 37 Oscars (and have won 11). 12 of these noms were for Actors & Actresses (with 5 wins). Out of 19 films, 11 have received have received at least a nomination, and 4 have been nominated for Best Films (wining twice with Best Director). That’s quite a treat in my opinion. And I don’t think that can be ignored when it comes to the likely nomination of his future films.
The other thing we can learn from this list, is that his worst reviewed film, in 25 years, is… J. Edgar.
Which means that Blood Work, True Crime, Absolute Power… are all supposed to be better than this one according to critics (or to RT ratings), and by quite a big margin. Somehow I find that extremely difficult to believe.
But considering the general trend with younger critics and bloggers to trash Eastwood, I think this 40% score is easy to understand (and strangely all top respected critics are positive).
Mixing all that together, I wouldn’t count J. Edgar out just yet.
I agree that Leo’s chances are better than the film’s or Eastwood’s. Plus I think I found precedent for an actor who got nominated in lead for a poorly-reviewed film: Sean Penn in “I Am Sam.” So while I think it’s rare for a lead actor to get nominated for a role in a movie with such harsh reviews, it obviously has happened before.
I agree that Leo’s chances are better than the film’s or Eastwood’s. Plus I think I found precedent for an actor who got nominated in lead for a poorly-reviewed film: Sean Penn in “I Am Sam.” So while I think it’s rare for a lead actor to get nominated for a role in a movie with such harsh reviews, it obviously has happened before.
Robert A., I haven’t done research on lead actors in poorly-reviewed films, but I do know that Penelope Cruz was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Nine, which only got a 37% from Rotten Tomatoes. So I like Leo’s chances a lot better than the film’s or Eastwood’s.
Robert A., I haven’t done research on lead actors in poorly-reviewed films, but I do know that Penelope Cruz was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Nine, which only got a 37% from Rotten Tomatoes. So I like Leo’s chances a lot better than the film’s or Eastwood’s.
Well for personal reasons I had avoided seeing Harry Potter. I finally saw it last night and I don’t see a BP nomination for it. Too convulted and just seemed to scramble all over the place settling on action rather than content.
Well for personal reasons I had avoided seeing Harry Potter. I finally saw it last night and I don’t see a BP nomination for it. Too convulted and just seemed to scramble all over the place settling on action rather than content.
@Brett Kristen Wiig. Dont EVER confuse the two! One has talent, the other none.
But anyways My personal wish list:
Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Director: Daldry- ELandIC
Actor: Leo-J.Edgar
Actress: Streep-Iron Lady
Sup. Actor: Von Sydow- ELandIC
Sup Actress: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Im really happy no one on here so far that I have seen on this post is wanting or predicted Clooney to win Best Actor! UGHHH I really hope he doesnt win, basically anyone but him and I will be happy!
@Brett Kristen Wiig. Dont EVER confuse the two! One has talent, the other none.
But anyways My personal wish list:
Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Director: Daldry- ELandIC
Actor: Leo-J.Edgar
Actress: Streep-Iron Lady
Sup. Actor: Von Sydow- ELandIC
Sup Actress: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Im really happy no one on here so far that I have seen on this post is wanting or predicted Clooney to win Best Actor! UGHHH I really hope he doesnt win, basically anyone but him and I will be happy!
Picture: Tree of Life
Director: Terrance Malik – Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender – Shame
Actress: Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Sup. Actor – Albert Brooks – Drive
Sup. Actress – Octavia Spencer – The Help
Original Screenplay – Kristen Stewart – Bridesmaids
Adapt. Screenplay – Hossein Amini – Drive
Picture: Tree of Life
Director: Terrance Malik – Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender – Shame
Actress: Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Sup. Actor – Albert Brooks – Drive
Sup. Actress – Octavia Spencer – The Help
Original Screenplay – Kristen Stewart – Bridesmaids
Adapt. Screenplay – Hossein Amini – Drive
I think you have a point, Too Many AJs. This has been my concern with the idea of J. Edgar making it into the BP race. I’m not one of those people who pays slavish attention to RT or Metacritic, but I do think they can serve as a somewhat accurate barometer of how a movie is being perceived in general. And as you point out, a movie with an overall score as low as J. Edgar’s just doesn’t end up breaking into the BP race.
Of course, just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year. But the chances seem stacked against the movie (and Eastwood), at this point, unless the movie turns out to be an unexpected juggernaut at the box office (doubtful), and even then…
In fact, I’m still on the fence with how this affects Leo’s chances for a nomination in Best Actor. I think everyone agrees that Leo is the one who is emerging with the best reviews from J. Edgar. I’m too lazy to do the research, but I wonder if there’s ever been a nominee in Best Actor from a movie with such low overall scores? Again, if there hasn’t been in the past, doesn’t mean that this year won’t break the mold. But I’m curious…and a little antsy. If the movie is (in general) rather poorly perceived, it could drag Leo down with it if the race gets tight.
On the other hand, Sasha and Kris Tapley have seen the movie and seem petty confident about Leo’s nomination (has Ryan seen in?), and he is a big star (Leo, not Ryan, although Ryan is a star in his own right), and maybe he (Leo) can rise above the negative reception of the film and sort of get the movie’s one “big” nomination?
I think you have a point, Too Many AJs. This has been my concern with the idea of J. Edgar making it into the BP race. I’m not one of those people who pays slavish attention to RT or Metacritic, but I do think they can serve as a somewhat accurate barometer of how a movie is being perceived in general. And as you point out, a movie with an overall score as low as J. Edgar’s just doesn’t end up breaking into the BP race.
Of course, just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year. But the chances seem stacked against the movie (and Eastwood), at this point, unless the movie turns out to be an unexpected juggernaut at the box office (doubtful), and even then…
In fact, I’m still on the fence with how this affects Leo’s chances for a nomination in Best Actor. I think everyone agrees that Leo is the one who is emerging with the best reviews from J. Edgar. I’m too lazy to do the research, but I wonder if there’s ever been a nominee in Best Actor from a movie with such low overall scores? Again, if there hasn’t been in the past, doesn’t mean that this year won’t break the mold. But I’m curious…and a little antsy. If the movie is (in general) rather poorly perceived, it could drag Leo down with it if the race gets tight.
On the other hand, Sasha and Kris Tapley have seen the movie and seem petty confident about Leo’s nomination (has Ryan seen in?), and he is a big star (Leo, not Ryan, although Ryan is a star in his own right), and maybe he (Leo) can rise above the negative reception of the film and sort of get the movie’s one “big” nomination?
Of course J. Edgar is out right now. They will never nominate a film with 42% at R.T. Reviews don’t matter much… but THIS much… 42… it’s inevitable to rule it out. Even The Ides of March has a greatest shot than this and it’s reviews were not outstanding.
We still have to wait for The Iron Lady, Young Adult and Dragon Tattoo… Extremely Loud I believe is safe unless the film really sucks.
Of course J. Edgar is out right now. They will never nominate a film with 42% at R.T. Reviews don’t matter much… but THIS much… 42… it’s inevitable to rule it out. Even The Ides of March has a greatest shot than this and it’s reviews were not outstanding.
We still have to wait for The Iron Lady, Young Adult and Dragon Tattoo… Extremely Loud I believe is safe unless the film really sucks.
I’m calling right now that J. Edgar is out of the picture/director race. A lot of people are trying to make excuses for the bad reviews instead of realizing that there are plenty of other films ready to step up to the plate and take its place which don’t have so many bad reviews weighing them down.
By no means am I saying that the best-reviewed films are the ones that are nominated for Best Picture. Rather, aggregate reviews in practice act like more of a barrier to entry. No films get in if the majority of critics are saying negative things. That may be because some Academy members pay attention to Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores, or it may be that the critic scores act as a decent gauge of how the aggregate of the Academy will feel about the films, or it may be something entirely different. I mean to imply correlation, though not necessarily causation. It’s more than just a coincidence.
But the point is this. Only seven films from the past thirty years were nominated for Best Picture despite having less than 70% positive reviews, according to Rotten Tomatoes:
Babel: 69%
The Big Chill: 68%
The Godfather Part III: 68%
Blind Side: 66%
Out of Africa: 63%
Chocolat: 63%
The Reader: 62%
J. Edgar currently has 42%. Do you really think AMPAS is going to drop way down to such a low critics score? I don’t.
I’m calling right now that J. Edgar is out of the picture/director race. A lot of people are trying to make excuses for the bad reviews instead of realizing that there are plenty of other films ready to step up to the plate and take its place which don’t have so many bad reviews weighing them down.
By no means am I saying that the best-reviewed films are the ones that are nominated for Best Picture. Rather, aggregate reviews in practice act like more of a barrier to entry. No films get in if the majority of critics are saying negative things. That may be because some Academy members pay attention to Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores, or it may be that the critic scores act as a decent gauge of how the aggregate of the Academy will feel about the films, or it may be something entirely different. I mean to imply correlation, though not necessarily causation. It’s more than just a coincidence.
But the point is this. Only seven films from the past thirty years were nominated for Best Picture despite having less than 70% positive reviews, according to Rotten Tomatoes:
Babel: 69%
The Big Chill: 68%
The Godfather Part III: 68%
Blind Side: 66%
Out of Africa: 63%
Chocolat: 63%
The Reader: 62%
J. Edgar currently has 42%. Do you really think AMPAS is going to drop way down to such a low critics score? I don’t.
With the new buzz about TinTin, that could certainly shake things up…..has anyone SEEN Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Pardon the fact that I may have been under a rock if so….
With the new buzz about TinTin, that could certainly shake things up…..has anyone SEEN Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Pardon the fact that I may have been under a rock if so….
I think almost everyone is underestimating Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close… If it gets the reviews, only War Horse can beat it. Considering Alexander Payne (who is one of my favourite directors) already have an Oscar (even if it’s a screenplay one), a Daldry win would be more appealing to the Academy members. He got nominated for every single film he did… even The Reader.
And no one says a word about 2 films that actually can shake things for the nominations: The Iron Lady and Young Adult.
I think almost everyone is underestimating Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close… If it gets the reviews, only War Horse can beat it. Considering Alexander Payne (who is one of my favourite directors) already have an Oscar (even if it’s a screenplay one), a Daldry win would be more appealing to the Academy members. He got nominated for every single film he did… even The Reader.
And no one says a word about 2 films that actually can shake things for the nominations: The Iron Lady and Young Adult.
Picture: Melancholia
Director: Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Supporting Actress: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia
Original Screenplay: Meek’s Cutoff
Adapted Screenplay: We Need to Talk about Kevin
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Art Direction: Melancholia
Sound Mixing: Tree of Life
Sound Editing: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Meek’s Cutoff
Original Score: Drive
Visual Effects: Tree of Life
Picture: Melancholia
Director: Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Supporting Actress: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia
Original Screenplay: Meek’s Cutoff
Adapted Screenplay: We Need to Talk about Kevin
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Art Direction: Melancholia
Sound Mixing: Tree of Life
Sound Editing: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Meek’s Cutoff
Original Score: Drive
Visual Effects: Tree of Life
Well, this first draft is 50% wishlist/50% guess (and 90% ignorance, at this point)
Picture: The Artist
Director: Terence Malick
Actor: Michael Fassbender (counting on a rally here)
Actress: Michelle Williams
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave
Well, this first draft is 50% wishlist/50% guess (and 90% ignorance, at this point)
Picture: The Artist
Director: Terence Malick
Actor: Michael Fassbender (counting on a rally here)
Actress: Michelle Williams
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave
What’s really fascinating this year is that so many films that had “great expectations” have in some sense crashed and burned. I mean look at Hanna. Moneyball isn’t really on anyone’s lips so I don’t think it’s going to be a contender in BP. Tree of Life? Don’t see it but I guess since it’s Malik you could say that it might get considered. My Week with Marilyn is off everyones lips. I’m sticking to J Edgar because IMO the reviews are more about the critics “wanted” Eastwood to make and not what he made. Too many of the reviews are littered with “he should have made this a much more darker piece” [my words not the critics.] The reveiws for J Edgar remind me of the reviews for Redford’s Conspirator.
Top BP Contenders right now IMO
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. J. Edgar [and I have my reasons for this]
6. The Descendants
7. Extremely Loud
For Director
Payne
Hazanavicus
Allen
Speilberg
Daldry
Scorcese, Eastwood, and McQueen sitting in the wings just waiting for their name to be called.
If War Horse can capture the hearts and minds of the Academy it’ll win BP. Regardless of how much they claim to love The Artist. How many times in the last few years have we all bet on the front runner only to see it not make the envelope? Last year it was Social Network, the year before Avatar. I don’t think the Academy is as artistic enough to vote The Artist BP.
What’s really fascinating this year is that so many films that had “great expectations” have in some sense crashed and burned. I mean look at Hanna. Moneyball isn’t really on anyone’s lips so I don’t think it’s going to be a contender in BP. Tree of Life? Don’t see it but I guess since it’s Malik you could say that it might get considered. My Week with Marilyn is off everyones lips. I’m sticking to J Edgar because IMO the reviews are more about the critics “wanted” Eastwood to make and not what he made. Too many of the reviews are littered with “he should have made this a much more darker piece” [my words not the critics.] The reveiws for J Edgar remind me of the reviews for Redford’s Conspirator.
Top BP Contenders right now IMO
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. J. Edgar [and I have my reasons for this]
6. The Descendants
7. Extremely Loud
For Director
Payne
Hazanavicus
Allen
Speilberg
Daldry
Scorcese, Eastwood, and McQueen sitting in the wings just waiting for their name to be called.
If War Horse can capture the hearts and minds of the Academy it’ll win BP. Regardless of how much they claim to love The Artist. How many times in the last few years have we all bet on the front runner only to see it not make the envelope? Last year it was Social Network, the year before Avatar. I don’t think the Academy is as artistic enough to vote The Artist BP.
Best Director and Best Cinematography are probably all that Tree of Life can count on, unfortunately. If either of these is forgotten, however, there’s something wrong with the respective guild/AMPAS members.
Best Director and Best Cinematography are probably all that Tree of Life can count on, unfortunately. If either of these is forgotten, however, there’s something wrong with the respective guild/AMPAS members.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Tombeet, I’m not saying Potter’s scores will make it a BP nomineem My biggest problem is that some bloggers are denying the fact it is the most successful film of the year both critically and in twrms of box office.
Tombeet, I’m not saying Potter’s scores will make it a BP nomineem My biggest problem is that some bloggers are denying the fact it is the most successful film of the year both critically and in twrms of box office.
@JP: Well, sometimes you can’t compare the score from RT, Metacritic or IMDB to speak about its chance to Oscar. I remembered some films with low RT like Babel, The Reader, The Blind Side still get BP nomination; and more often than not some of the best reviewed films of that year just didn’t get in. (look at The Wrestler score, compared to The Reader; and imho The Wrestler was very much a better film).
Speaking of Harry Potter’s chance for Oscar, I think they will award this film for technical categories, but dismiss it in main categories.
I’m not really like Harry Potter, and I personally think The Tree of Life is the best film of this year so far. But its chance in Oscar is… low. But maybe the new 5% rule can help the Tree of Life to be BP nomination, hopefully.
@JP: Well, sometimes you can’t compare the score from RT, Metacritic or IMDB to speak about its chance to Oscar. I remembered some films with low RT like Babel, The Reader, The Blind Side still get BP nomination; and more often than not some of the best reviewed films of that year just didn’t get in. (look at The Wrestler score, compared to The Reader; and imho The Wrestler was very much a better film).
Speaking of Harry Potter’s chance for Oscar, I think they will award this film for technical categories, but dismiss it in main categories.
I’m not really like Harry Potter, and I personally think The Tree of Life is the best film of this year so far. But its chance in Oscar is… low. But maybe the new 5% rule can help the Tree of Life to be BP nomination, hopefully.
If the Academy will nominate a blockbuster it’s Harry Potter… Hugo is another story (it will get in if it gets great reviews and the most important… because it’s Scorcese’s). If there’s a blockbuster with the smallest chance possible… to get in for BP is Harry Potter.
I can hardly see The Muppets with more than 96 at Rotten Tomatoes, 380 millions in the U.S. and 1.3 billion worldwide.
And I’m really pissed of by how many bloggers are dismissing the fact that Potter is the best reviewed and most watched film of the year. You may not like the film, you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars (I think its chances are very very small)… but dismissing facts. Moneyball…8.4 average, 95% R.T… at metacritic they are both 87. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, widely called the best reviewed blockbuster of 2011… 82% 7.1 average R.T. 68 metacritic.
If the Academy will nominate a blockbuster it’s Harry Potter… Hugo is another story (it will get in if it gets great reviews and the most important… because it’s Scorcese’s). If there’s a blockbuster with the smallest chance possible… to get in for BP is Harry Potter.
I can hardly see The Muppets with more than 96 at Rotten Tomatoes, 380 millions in the U.S. and 1.3 billion worldwide.
And I’m really pissed of by how many bloggers are dismissing the fact that Potter is the best reviewed and most watched film of the year. You may not like the film, you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars (I think its chances are very very small)… but dismissing facts. Moneyball…8.4 average, 95% R.T… at metacritic they are both 87. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, widely called the best reviewed blockbuster of 2011… 82% 7.1 average R.T. 68 metacritic.
You really think Stephen Daldry is ranked lower than Woody Allen and David Fincher? The guy got nominated even for… The Reader. He only doesn’t get in if the film is a real flop.
You really think Stephen Daldry is ranked lower than Woody Allen and David Fincher? The guy got nominated even for… The Reader. He only doesn’t get in if the film is a real flop.
I agree with Geremy et al. that at this point no other film seems able to beat The Artist. It’s the film everyone loves and will love. From what I hear The Descendants has a bit of misanthropic streak and for that I’m not sure people will embrace the film wholeheartedly even if they think the film’s well-made. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks Moneyball will hold out by the end of the year and remain a strong possibility for Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, right? All those films coming out this month or next and those we’ve had high hopes for are getting not-great-but or mixed reviews, including Hugo and J. Edgar. If War Horse, Extremely Loud and Girl with Dragon Tattoo get lukewarm reception, then The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball will survive and be remembered among Academy members as their favorites of the year.
I agree with Geremy et al. that at this point no other film seems able to beat The Artist. It’s the film everyone loves and will love. From what I hear The Descendants has a bit of misanthropic streak and for that I’m not sure people will embrace the film wholeheartedly even if they think the film’s well-made. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks Moneyball will hold out by the end of the year and remain a strong possibility for Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, right? All those films coming out this month or next and those we’ve had high hopes for are getting not-great-but or mixed reviews, including Hugo and J. Edgar. If War Horse, Extremely Loud and Girl with Dragon Tattoo get lukewarm reception, then The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball will survive and be remembered among Academy members as their favorites of the year.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Max von Sidow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Max von Sidow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I don’t see anything beating The Artist this year, it’s an homage to film that everyone is gonna love, which makes it safe for the Academy. I think TTSS is going to make a play for a nomination in a big way, if it’s as good as people have been saying then it should have no trouble obtaining ~300 #1 votes. I really have no clue what’s going to happen in the Best Actress category this year. Streep, Williams, Davis and Close are all equally likely winners and there’s a good half-dozen actresses, at least, who could jump ahead at any moment. I just put Meryl because I’m hoping she gets her long overdue third Oscar.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I don’t see anything beating The Artist this year, it’s an homage to film that everyone is gonna love, which makes it safe for the Academy. I think TTSS is going to make a play for a nomination in a big way, if it’s as good as people have been saying then it should have no trouble obtaining ~300 #1 votes. I really have no clue what’s going to happen in the Best Actress category this year. Streep, Williams, Davis and Close are all equally likely winners and there’s a good half-dozen actresses, at least, who could jump ahead at any moment. I just put Meryl because I’m hoping she gets her long overdue third Oscar.
People think it’s basically either ITLOBAH or Dragon Tattoo that he was talking about. Dragon Tattoo would make sense because it has this week’s EW cover but ITLOBAH would make sense because it had a confirmed screening the same day that he tweeted. We’ll find out soon enough.
People think it’s basically either ITLOBAH or Dragon Tattoo that he was talking about. Dragon Tattoo would make sense because it has this week’s EW cover but ITLOBAH would make sense because it had a confirmed screening the same day that he tweeted. We’ll find out soon enough.
Hugo enters the best picture race and people still insist that Midnight in Paris is a strong contender. It definitely isn’t out of the race, but the fifth most likely? Come on.
Hugo enters the best picture race and people still insist that Midnight in Paris is a strong contender. It definitely isn’t out of the race, but the fifth most likely? Come on.
In the Land of Blood & Honey is going to enter soon. Some people think Dave Karger’s “mystery tweet” the other day was about that, and look who didn’t update their standings in MCN’s “Gurus O’ Gold” this week? Dave Karger. 🙂
In the Land of Blood & Honey is going to enter soon. Some people think Dave Karger’s “mystery tweet” the other day was about that, and look who didn’t update their standings in MCN’s “Gurus O’ Gold” this week? Dave Karger. 🙂
I finally, finally, got to see Tree of Life last night. I totally see what Penn was pissed about. That could have been a masterpiece if half of it wasn’t clearly missing. I have no idea whose fault that is, but man oh man.
Anyway, I’m gonna give you guys an update from the boonies. It took me this long to see that because it never played here (city of almost 100,000). And I was intending to see J. Edgar ASAP, but I looked up the schedules for this weekend and it’s not on it. This has happened a couple times now this season. I looked on boxofficemojo and was surprised that it’s going to 1,900 theaters. It looks like where I live we’re only getting movies that open to 3000 now. The reason I’m pointing it out is because it is odd. I’ve been an Oscarwatcher for more than a decade and this is the first time it’s been this bad this early. Usually you have to wait for the “smaller” ones, The Wrestler, The King’s Speech, etc. But not a Leonardo DiCaprio movie, or a Clint Eastwood movie for cripes sake. I was there on opening day for Invictus and the theater was as full as they get when I go. I know grown up films haven’t been doing that great, but this is a sudden change. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, but I think it will affect the movies that need “the zeitgeist”. I feel like if they’re going to release them to the masses at all, it’s gotta be the first week. By the second week, the damage is done.
As far as the race goes, it seems like from the buzz and dying buzz a lot of movies are getting, we might just end up with a measly 5 nominees in BP. D:
I finally, finally, got to see Tree of Life last night. I totally see what Penn was pissed about. That could have been a masterpiece if half of it wasn’t clearly missing. I have no idea whose fault that is, but man oh man.
Anyway, I’m gonna give you guys an update from the boonies. It took me this long to see that because it never played here (city of almost 100,000). And I was intending to see J. Edgar ASAP, but I looked up the schedules for this weekend and it’s not on it. This has happened a couple times now this season. I looked on boxofficemojo and was surprised that it’s going to 1,900 theaters. It looks like where I live we’re only getting movies that open to 3000 now. The reason I’m pointing it out is because it is odd. I’ve been an Oscarwatcher for more than a decade and this is the first time it’s been this bad this early. Usually you have to wait for the “smaller” ones, The Wrestler, The King’s Speech, etc. But not a Leonardo DiCaprio movie, or a Clint Eastwood movie for cripes sake. I was there on opening day for Invictus and the theater was as full as they get when I go. I know grown up films haven’t been doing that great, but this is a sudden change. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, but I think it will affect the movies that need “the zeitgeist”. I feel like if they’re going to release them to the masses at all, it’s gotta be the first week. By the second week, the damage is done.
As far as the race goes, it seems like from the buzz and dying buzz a lot of movies are getting, we might just end up with a measly 5 nominees in BP. D:
Picture: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs OR Viola Davis, The Help
Sup. Actor: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Picture: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs OR Viola Davis, The Help
Sup. Actor: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Sup Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
I don’t see The Artist losing. It’s the movie EVERYONE loves. And I don’t think Glenn Close will be able to pull it off. Her performance is too understated and the movie not quite good enough. I love Glenn Close (HUGE Damages fan), but I feel like the Oscars will play out like a Peter O’Toole situation a few years ago.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Sup Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
I don’t see The Artist losing. It’s the movie EVERYONE loves. And I don’t think Glenn Close will be able to pull it off. Her performance is too understated and the movie not quite good enough. I love Glenn Close (HUGE Damages fan), but I feel like the Oscars will play out like a Peter O’Toole situation a few years ago.
If Malick manages to make the Directing cut, I think it’s still possie he could benefit from a BP/BD split where The Artist takes the former.
I think the Academy might be more inclined to give Malick his first award than giving Spielberg his third, esp. when we know SS will be back at the dance again, maybe even next year.
Does Malick win out over Hazanavicius? Maybe. But then again this is the group who awarded Tom fucking Hooper last year and I couldn’t believe that one. Just like last year, the DGA award may be a huge indicator.
If Malick manages to make the Directing cut, I think it’s still possie he could benefit from a BP/BD split where The Artist takes the former.
I think the Academy might be more inclined to give Malick his first award than giving Spielberg his third, esp. when we know SS will be back at the dance again, maybe even next year.
Does Malick win out over Hazanavicius? Maybe. But then again this is the group who awarded Tom fucking Hooper last year and I couldn’t believe that one. Just like last year, the DGA award may be a huge indicator.
Picture: War Horse
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, The Help (if she goes supporting, they guarantee the win, imho)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: War Horse / Harry Potter VIII (and standing ovation for Kloves?)
Picture: War Horse
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, The Help (if she goes supporting, they guarantee the win, imho)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: War Horse / Harry Potter VIII (and standing ovation for Kloves?)
Personally im guessing that if there is gonna be a BD/BP split Fincher would be on the Director side of it with something softer winning Picture. Maybe The Artist or War Horse (Spielberg may win too but then again he already has two)
Personally im guessing that if there is gonna be a BD/BP split Fincher would be on the Director side of it with something softer winning Picture. Maybe The Artist or War Horse (Spielberg may win too but then again he already has two)
Jeremie, I agree with Julian: your list shows that Eastwood’s movies are only nominated for top awards when his films are well-received. I also feel like the Academy has sort of cooled on Eastwood in the last five years. They didn’t nominate Gran Torino for anything despite speculation that they would, and Invictus didn’t get nominated for Best Picture despite the fact that everyone was predicting it. I’m sure AMPAS’s mind can change back, but I don’t think Eastwood’s worst-reviewed film is the one to do it.
And it’s not true to say that all the top critics gave J. Edgar positive reviews. Variety didn’t care much for it, nor did Mick LaSalle or Richard Corliss.
Jeremie, I agree with Julian: your list shows that Eastwood’s movies are only nominated for top awards when his films are well-received. I also feel like the Academy has sort of cooled on Eastwood in the last five years. They didn’t nominate Gran Torino for anything despite speculation that they would, and Invictus didn’t get nominated for Best Picture despite the fact that everyone was predicting it. I’m sure AMPAS’s mind can change back, but I don’t think Eastwood’s worst-reviewed film is the one to do it.
And it’s not true to say that all the top critics gave J. Edgar positive reviews. Variety didn’t care much for it, nor did Mick LaSalle or Richard Corliss.
It is strange with this Daldry guy (an a 5/5 record would indeed be ridiculous!).
The man has made some pleasant films, but to me his films lack any real sense of artistic personality. He is not exactly a great auteur, I mean!…
Oh well, for me the final five will be something like this: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Fincher, Payne and Malick (on the fifth spot – in tough competition with Allen and Daldry)
It is strange with this Daldry guy (an a 5/5 record would indeed be ridiculous!).
The man has made some pleasant films, but to me his films lack any real sense of artistic personality. He is not exactly a great auteur, I mean!…
Oh well, for me the final five will be something like this: Hazanavicius, Spielberg, Fincher, Payne and Malick (on the fifth spot – in tough competition with Allen and Daldry)
It’s hard. Maybe I should just stick to the Hazman to win. It’s the side of me that is tired of Dir/Pic going hand in hand – always waiting for splits.
It’s hard. Maybe I should just stick to the Hazman to win. It’s the side of me that is tired of Dir/Pic going hand in hand – always waiting for splits.
Dadldry wining? In the year where Malick, Fincher, Allen, Spielberg have a film out, and all other wonderful films have been released and noticed? I cannot imagine it. I just can’t. That’d be even worse than last year with Hooper.
And I don’t see two brits wining in a row, especially with such a fierce American competition (and The Artist patiently waiting).
Plus the first very early words on Extremely Lound Incredibly Close haven’t been too great. But I guess that what I said about Eastwood, also applies for Daldry. You never know with him. After The Reader’s precedent, we know that even if ELIC is a flop and doesn’t convince critics, it could still make the cut.
Dadldry wining? In the year where Malick, Fincher, Allen, Spielberg have a film out, and all other wonderful films have been released and noticed? I cannot imagine it. I just can’t. That’d be even worse than last year with Hooper.
And I don’t see two brits wining in a row, especially with such a fierce American competition (and The Artist patiently waiting).
Plus the first very early words on Extremely Lound Incredibly Close haven’t been too great. But I guess that what I said about Eastwood, also applies for Daldry. You never know with him. After The Reader’s precedent, we know that even if ELIC is a flop and doesn’t convince critics, it could still make the cut.
And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
Haha, if I was an AMPAS member I reckon this argument could easily convince me.
And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
Haha, if I was an AMPAS member I reckon this argument could easily convince me.
It is tricky. But to be fair, I’m not sure this coming weeks are going to be that helpful either. Imagine if all of them are successful (Hugo, Tattoo, Extremely Loud, Spielberg…). It might become a nightmare to pick just 5. I don’t remember any year to be that messy. But I do love it as well. It certainly makes the game more exciting.
I think Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, Spielberg are probably the safest best right now. For the 5th spot, I’d have no idea. I don’t feel Dadldry for some reason (5 out 5, come on! This has to stop at some point, it’s getting ridiculous. I’ve got nothing against the guy, he is talented, but he certainly doesn’t deserve such a resume!), Fincher is the big mystery (violent film yes, but after last year’s snub, and if the film is massive BO success, they might not be able to ignore him), and the rest is a big wide unknown (some are even starting to mention Jolie for In the Land of Blood and Honey ffs!).
I feel that critics’ lists this year are going to be all over the place.
So yep, Good luck with your article!
It is tricky. But to be fair, I’m not sure this coming weeks are going to be that helpful either. Imagine if all of them are successful (Hugo, Tattoo, Extremely Loud, Spielberg…). It might become a nightmare to pick just 5. I don’t remember any year to be that messy. But I do love it as well. It certainly makes the game more exciting.
I think Hazanavicius, Malick, Payne, Spielberg are probably the safest best right now. For the 5th spot, I’d have no idea. I don’t feel Dadldry for some reason (5 out 5, come on! This has to stop at some point, it’s getting ridiculous. I’ve got nothing against the guy, he is talented, but he certainly doesn’t deserve such a resume!), Fincher is the big mystery (violent film yes, but after last year’s snub, and if the film is massive BO success, they might not be able to ignore him), and the rest is a big wide unknown (some are even starting to mention Jolie for In the Land of Blood and Honey ffs!).
I feel that critics’ lists this year are going to be all over the place.
So yep, Good luck with your article!
Also, with the above, I see Daldry winning Director. The 4/4 will not go unnoticed and The Artist getting Picture smells like a split. A foreign director whose name they can’t even pronounce. I will probably have to take this back after Hazanavicius wins all the possible Directing awards (it IS a director’s picture).
Spielberg waits for another year unless Tintin is his consolation prize in Animation. I just don’t see them splitting Spielberg/his film again. And I don’t think The Artist can be beaten by anything. Some kind of negative campaigning must occur if it was to lose.
Malick is making 2-3 pictures a year now, Academy knows this. Payne is possible, but they obviously LOVE Daldry more. And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
Also, with the above, I see Daldry winning Director. The 4/4 will not go unnoticed and The Artist getting Picture smells like a split. A foreign director whose name they can’t even pronounce. I will probably have to take this back after Hazanavicius wins all the possible Directing awards (it IS a director’s picture).
Spielberg waits for another year unless Tintin is his consolation prize in Animation. I just don’t see them splitting Spielberg/his film again. And I don’t think The Artist can be beaten by anything. Some kind of negative campaigning must occur if it was to lose.
Malick is making 2-3 pictures a year now, Academy knows this. Payne is possible, but they obviously LOVE Daldry more. And those who don’t might feel like: “let’s get it over with, so we can move on”.
It is crowded. I have to make my annual predictions for this one movie magazine on the 21st when nothing has been giving out yet. And once the December issue comes out two weeks later, we are already smarter.
Right now, I’m FEELING:
-Daldry (4/4 – I was resisting the idea, but have accepted now)
-Hazanavicius (a real lock / also fills the not-so-rare foreign spot)
-Malick (unfortunately I see this as the David Lynch nominee)
-Payne (has to be a lock)
-Spielberg (it’s Spielberg, duh, and Tintin should even help)
As default, I should expect that all these guys’ pictures are also nominated – even The Tree of Life. I will add two more (cause 7 is the magic number, no?). The Help and Moneyball. This IF I had to write the article today, it probably changes in a week. But if I do the above, I’ll probably get it some 70% correct when playing this safe. Last year I got Picture 10/10, but so did every other guy. This is tough – and I LOVE IT.
Midnight in Paris – they love Allen in writing. Dragon Tattoo – probably more like Seven and Zodiac than the last two non-violent ones. If 8 spots, I see Tinker Tailor getting it.
It is crowded. I have to make my annual predictions for this one movie magazine on the 21st when nothing has been giving out yet. And once the December issue comes out two weeks later, we are already smarter.
Right now, I’m FEELING:
-Daldry (4/4 – I was resisting the idea, but have accepted now)
-Hazanavicius (a real lock / also fills the not-so-rare foreign spot)
-Malick (unfortunately I see this as the David Lynch nominee)
-Payne (has to be a lock)
-Spielberg (it’s Spielberg, duh, and Tintin should even help)
As default, I should expect that all these guys’ pictures are also nominated – even The Tree of Life. I will add two more (cause 7 is the magic number, no?). The Help and Moneyball. This IF I had to write the article today, it probably changes in a week. But if I do the above, I’ll probably get it some 70% correct when playing this safe. Last year I got Picture 10/10, but so did every other guy. This is tough – and I LOVE IT.
Midnight in Paris – they love Allen in writing. Dragon Tattoo – probably more like Seven and Zodiac than the last two non-violent ones. If 8 spots, I see Tinker Tailor getting it.
Oh and Spielberg for War Horse of course. I’d probably swap Allen for him. Oh dear, isn’t it crowded this year?
Oh and Spielberg for War Horse of course. I’d probably swap Allen for him. Oh dear, isn’t it crowded this year?
That’s because you know me well Tero 😉 (and glad to see you back, hope you recovered from the heated War Horse discussions!)
On Hugo, I don’t know either. I think Hazanavicius and Payne are safe bets (and even so I’m not that entirely convinced for the former).
After that, I don’t see Miller making the cut for Moneyball (but that’s because I’m sceptical towards the film in general, so I could be very wrong) nor do I see Clooney for Ides of March.
I think Woody Allen has actually a pretty good shot. So that would leave two spots: a surprise indie spot ala David Lynch for either Alfredson, McQueen, Winding Refn or Malick. And a last spot between Fincher and Scorsese. Both will depends on critical and commercial success. If Hugo manages to be a big Christmas hit, Scorsese could make it IMO.
So yep, right now I would say:
Payne
Hazanavicius
Allen
Malick
Fincher or Scorsese
Oh and I forgot Daldry. Don’t know what to make of him…
That’s because you know me well Tero 😉 (and glad to see you back, hope you recovered from the heated War Horse discussions!)
On Hugo, I don’t know either. I think Hazanavicius and Payne are safe bets (and even so I’m not that entirely convinced for the former).
After that, I don’t see Miller making the cut for Moneyball (but that’s because I’m sceptical towards the film in general, so I could be very wrong) nor do I see Clooney for Ides of March.
I think Woody Allen has actually a pretty good shot. So that would leave two spots: a surprise indie spot ala David Lynch for either Alfredson, McQueen, Winding Refn or Malick. And a last spot between Fincher and Scorsese. Both will depends on critical and commercial success. If Hugo manages to be a big Christmas hit, Scorsese could make it IMO.
So yep, right now I would say:
Payne
Hazanavicius
Allen
Malick
Fincher or Scorsese
Oh and I forgot Daldry. Don’t know what to make of him…
I was sure it was a typo, Jeremie. Now – in the Hugo thread – I don’t see Scorsese getting a nomination either (even if it gets Picture).
I was sure it was a typo, Jeremie. Now – in the Hugo thread – I don’t see Scorsese getting a nomination either (even if it gets Picture).
And why I was trying to prove with these numbers is what I’ve said above:
1) You should never discount an Eastwood’s film when it comes to Oscar;
and that
2) I don’t think this ridiculously low 40% is in any way representative of the quality of the film, and certainly not an indication of how the AMPAS members will react to the film.
And why I was trying to prove with these numbers is what I’ve said above:
1) You should never discount an Eastwood’s film when it comes to Oscar;
and that
2) I don’t think this ridiculously low 40% is in any way representative of the quality of the film, and certainly not an indication of how the AMPAS members will react to the film.
Haha. That because it should have read Best ART Direction. Sorry I drove you into a frenzy!
Haha. That because it should have read Best ART Direction. Sorry I drove you into a frenzy!
Eastwood won’t get in for best direction, Jeremie!
I agree, Leo is a near-lock, Hammer is a possibility (but not a big one). But direction? And who should he push out? Payne, Fincher, Spielberg, Haznavicious, Allen, Daldry…the list goes on. With a poorly received movie like J Edgar there’s a very slim chance…
Besides, what your list of his previous films show, is that Eastwood is nominated for bp and direction when he gets a good critical reaction! So you are practically delivering a perfect argument for why he is NOT going to be nominated this year! Your numbers clearly illustrate that his biggest Oscar movies are the very well-received ones (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Letters from…), whereas he fails to get individual nominations when the reviews are less than stellar. So I don’t know what you are trying to prove with these numbers….??
Eastwood won’t get in for best direction, Jeremie!
I agree, Leo is a near-lock, Hammer is a possibility (but not a big one). But direction? And who should he push out? Payne, Fincher, Spielberg, Haznavicious, Allen, Daldry…the list goes on. With a poorly received movie like J Edgar there’s a very slim chance…
Besides, what your list of his previous films show, is that Eastwood is nominated for bp and direction when he gets a good critical reaction! So you are practically delivering a perfect argument for why he is NOT going to be nominated this year! Your numbers clearly illustrate that his biggest Oscar movies are the very well-received ones (Unforgiven, Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, Letters from…), whereas he fails to get individual nominations when the reviews are less than stellar. So I don’t know what you are trying to prove with these numbers….??
But yeah everybody knows that J. Edgar is unlikely to get a nomination for Best Pic (especially with the new rule this year), but it still has a million more chance to do so than HP42.
But yeah everybody knows that J. Edgar is unlikely to get a nomination for Best Pic (especially with the new rule this year), but it still has a million more chance to do so than HP42.
And thank god, WB PR team is not run by 6 yo playing tea parties.
At this point, I’d say J. Edgar is likely to get a nomination for Actor, Sup. Actor, Make-up and Best Direction. I see it in a similar situation that Changeling was in 2008.
And thank god, WB PR team is not run by 6 yo playing tea parties.
At this point, I’d say J. Edgar is likely to get a nomination for Actor, Sup. Actor, Make-up and Best Direction. I see it in a similar situation that Changeling was in 2008.
Nah, J. Edgar is out for everything but Best Actor…WB needs to ride the Hogwarts Express to the Oscars this year!
Nah, J. Edgar is out for everything but Best Actor…WB needs to ride the Hogwarts Express to the Oscars this year!
The only problem, I think, with your theories discounting J. Edgar, is that you seem to forget one big factor: Clint Eastwood. A living legend who has a respect which goes far beyond any stinky critics on RT.
I’m always suspicious when it comes to Oscar prognostics with the help of RT, Metacritic and co, and especially when it concerns Eastwood.
Let’s have a look at the films he made in the last 25 years (with RT scores and Oscar nominations)
– J. Edgar (2011) : 40%
– Hereafter (2010): 46% / 1 Nomination
– Invictus (2009): 75% / 2 Nominations
– Gran Torino (2008): 80% / 0 Nomination
– Changeling (2008): 62% / 3 Nominations
– Letters from Iwo Jima (2006): 91% / 4 Nominations / 1 Wins
– Flags of Our Fathers (2006): 73% / 2 Nominations
– Million Dollar Baby (2004): 92% / 7 Nominations / 4 Wins
– Mystic River (2003): 87% / 6 Nominations / 2 Wins
– Blood Work (2002): 53% / 0 Nomination
– Space Cowboys (2000): 79% / 1 Nomination
– True Crime (1999): 54% / 0 Nomination
– Absolute Power (1997): 45% / 0 Nomination
– Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil (1997): 47% / 0 Nomination
– The Bridges of Madison County (1995): 90% / 1 Nomination
– A Perfect World (1993): 79% / 0 Nomination
– Unforgiven (1992): 96% / 9 Nominations / 4 Wins
– White Hunter Black Heart (1990): 85% / 0 Nomination
– Bird (1988): 74% / 1 Nomination
– Pale Rider : 92% (1985) / 0 Nomination
I think that shows a few things.
First, that in the last 25 years Eastwood’s films have been nominated for a total of 37 Oscars (and have won 11). 12 of these noms were for Actors & Actresses (with 5 wins). Out of 19 films, 11 have received have received at least a nomination, and 4 have been nominated for Best Films (wining twice with Best Director). That’s quite a treat in my opinion. And I don’t think that can be ignored when it comes to the likely nomination of his future films.
The other thing we can learn from this list, is that his worst reviewed film, in 25 years, is… J. Edgar.
Which means that Blood Work, True Crime, Absolute Power… are all supposed to be better than this one according to critics (or to RT ratings), and by quite a big margin. Somehow I find that extremely difficult to believe.
But considering the general trend with younger critics and bloggers to trash Eastwood, I think this 40% score is easy to understand (and strangely all top respected critics are positive).
Mixing all that together, I wouldn’t count J. Edgar out just yet.
The only problem, I think, with your theories discounting J. Edgar, is that you seem to forget one big factor: Clint Eastwood. A living legend who has a respect which goes far beyond any stinky critics on RT.
I’m always suspicious when it comes to Oscar prognostics with the help of RT, Metacritic and co, and especially when it concerns Eastwood.
Let’s have a look at the films he made in the last 25 years (with RT scores and Oscar nominations)
– J. Edgar (2011) : 40%
– Hereafter (2010): 46% / 1 Nomination
– Invictus (2009): 75% / 2 Nominations
– Gran Torino (2008): 80% / 0 Nomination
– Changeling (2008): 62% / 3 Nominations
– Letters from Iwo Jima (2006): 91% / 4 Nominations / 1 Wins
– Flags of Our Fathers (2006): 73% / 2 Nominations
– Million Dollar Baby (2004): 92% / 7 Nominations / 4 Wins
– Mystic River (2003): 87% / 6 Nominations / 2 Wins
– Blood Work (2002): 53% / 0 Nomination
– Space Cowboys (2000): 79% / 1 Nomination
– True Crime (1999): 54% / 0 Nomination
– Absolute Power (1997): 45% / 0 Nomination
– Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil (1997): 47% / 0 Nomination
– The Bridges of Madison County (1995): 90% / 1 Nomination
– A Perfect World (1993): 79% / 0 Nomination
– Unforgiven (1992): 96% / 9 Nominations / 4 Wins
– White Hunter Black Heart (1990): 85% / 0 Nomination
– Bird (1988): 74% / 1 Nomination
– Pale Rider : 92% (1985) / 0 Nomination
I think that shows a few things.
First, that in the last 25 years Eastwood’s films have been nominated for a total of 37 Oscars (and have won 11). 12 of these noms were for Actors & Actresses (with 5 wins). Out of 19 films, 11 have received have received at least a nomination, and 4 have been nominated for Best Films (wining twice with Best Director). That’s quite a treat in my opinion. And I don’t think that can be ignored when it comes to the likely nomination of his future films.
The other thing we can learn from this list, is that his worst reviewed film, in 25 years, is… J. Edgar.
Which means that Blood Work, True Crime, Absolute Power… are all supposed to be better than this one according to critics (or to RT ratings), and by quite a big margin. Somehow I find that extremely difficult to believe.
But considering the general trend with younger critics and bloggers to trash Eastwood, I think this 40% score is easy to understand (and strangely all top respected critics are positive).
Mixing all that together, I wouldn’t count J. Edgar out just yet.
I agree that Leo’s chances are better than the film’s or Eastwood’s. Plus I think I found precedent for an actor who got nominated in lead for a poorly-reviewed film: Sean Penn in “I Am Sam.” So while I think it’s rare for a lead actor to get nominated for a role in a movie with such harsh reviews, it obviously has happened before.
I agree that Leo’s chances are better than the film’s or Eastwood’s. Plus I think I found precedent for an actor who got nominated in lead for a poorly-reviewed film: Sean Penn in “I Am Sam.” So while I think it’s rare for a lead actor to get nominated for a role in a movie with such harsh reviews, it obviously has happened before.
Robert A., I haven’t done research on lead actors in poorly-reviewed films, but I do know that Penelope Cruz was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Nine, which only got a 37% from Rotten Tomatoes. So I like Leo’s chances a lot better than the film’s or Eastwood’s.
Robert A., I haven’t done research on lead actors in poorly-reviewed films, but I do know that Penelope Cruz was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Nine, which only got a 37% from Rotten Tomatoes. So I like Leo’s chances a lot better than the film’s or Eastwood’s.
Well for personal reasons I had avoided seeing Harry Potter. I finally saw it last night and I don’t see a BP nomination for it. Too convulted and just seemed to scramble all over the place settling on action rather than content.
Well for personal reasons I had avoided seeing Harry Potter. I finally saw it last night and I don’t see a BP nomination for it. Too convulted and just seemed to scramble all over the place settling on action rather than content.
I see it a pretty even split
Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay The Artist
Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay TGWTDT
I see it a pretty even split
Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay The Artist
Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay TGWTDT
@Brett Kristen Wiig. Dont EVER confuse the two! One has talent, the other none.
But anyways My personal wish list:
Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Director: Daldry- ELandIC
Actor: Leo-J.Edgar
Actress: Streep-Iron Lady
Sup. Actor: Von Sydow- ELandIC
Sup Actress: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Im really happy no one on here so far that I have seen on this post is wanting or predicted Clooney to win Best Actor! UGHHH I really hope he doesnt win, basically anyone but him and I will be happy!
@Brett Kristen Wiig. Dont EVER confuse the two! One has talent, the other none.
But anyways My personal wish list:
Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Director: Daldry- ELandIC
Actor: Leo-J.Edgar
Actress: Streep-Iron Lady
Sup. Actor: Von Sydow- ELandIC
Sup Actress: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Im really happy no one on here so far that I have seen on this post is wanting or predicted Clooney to win Best Actor! UGHHH I really hope he doesnt win, basically anyone but him and I will be happy!
Personal choices
Picture: Tree of Life
Director: Terrance Malik – Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender – Shame
Actress: Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Sup. Actor – Albert Brooks – Drive
Sup. Actress – Octavia Spencer – The Help
Original Screenplay – Kristen Stewart – Bridesmaids
Adapt. Screenplay – Hossein Amini – Drive
Personal choices
Picture: Tree of Life
Director: Terrance Malik – Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender – Shame
Actress: Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
Sup. Actor – Albert Brooks – Drive
Sup. Actress – Octavia Spencer – The Help
Original Screenplay – Kristen Stewart – Bridesmaids
Adapt. Screenplay – Hossein Amini – Drive
Oops–Sasha and Kris are PRETTY confident, not petty confident. Jeesh!
Oops–Sasha and Kris are PRETTY confident, not petty confident. Jeesh!
I think you have a point, Too Many AJs. This has been my concern with the idea of J. Edgar making it into the BP race. I’m not one of those people who pays slavish attention to RT or Metacritic, but I do think they can serve as a somewhat accurate barometer of how a movie is being perceived in general. And as you point out, a movie with an overall score as low as J. Edgar’s just doesn’t end up breaking into the BP race.
Of course, just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year. But the chances seem stacked against the movie (and Eastwood), at this point, unless the movie turns out to be an unexpected juggernaut at the box office (doubtful), and even then…
In fact, I’m still on the fence with how this affects Leo’s chances for a nomination in Best Actor. I think everyone agrees that Leo is the one who is emerging with the best reviews from J. Edgar. I’m too lazy to do the research, but I wonder if there’s ever been a nominee in Best Actor from a movie with such low overall scores? Again, if there hasn’t been in the past, doesn’t mean that this year won’t break the mold. But I’m curious…and a little antsy. If the movie is (in general) rather poorly perceived, it could drag Leo down with it if the race gets tight.
On the other hand, Sasha and Kris Tapley have seen the movie and seem petty confident about Leo’s nomination (has Ryan seen in?), and he is a big star (Leo, not Ryan, although Ryan is a star in his own right), and maybe he (Leo) can rise above the negative reception of the film and sort of get the movie’s one “big” nomination?
I’m baffled.
I think you have a point, Too Many AJs. This has been my concern with the idea of J. Edgar making it into the BP race. I’m not one of those people who pays slavish attention to RT or Metacritic, but I do think they can serve as a somewhat accurate barometer of how a movie is being perceived in general. And as you point out, a movie with an overall score as low as J. Edgar’s just doesn’t end up breaking into the BP race.
Of course, just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year. But the chances seem stacked against the movie (and Eastwood), at this point, unless the movie turns out to be an unexpected juggernaut at the box office (doubtful), and even then…
In fact, I’m still on the fence with how this affects Leo’s chances for a nomination in Best Actor. I think everyone agrees that Leo is the one who is emerging with the best reviews from J. Edgar. I’m too lazy to do the research, but I wonder if there’s ever been a nominee in Best Actor from a movie with such low overall scores? Again, if there hasn’t been in the past, doesn’t mean that this year won’t break the mold. But I’m curious…and a little antsy. If the movie is (in general) rather poorly perceived, it could drag Leo down with it if the race gets tight.
On the other hand, Sasha and Kris Tapley have seen the movie and seem petty confident about Leo’s nomination (has Ryan seen in?), and he is a big star (Leo, not Ryan, although Ryan is a star in his own right), and maybe he (Leo) can rise above the negative reception of the film and sort of get the movie’s one “big” nomination?
I’m baffled.
Of course J. Edgar is out right now. They will never nominate a film with 42% at R.T. Reviews don’t matter much… but THIS much… 42… it’s inevitable to rule it out. Even The Ides of March has a greatest shot than this and it’s reviews were not outstanding.
We still have to wait for The Iron Lady, Young Adult and Dragon Tattoo… Extremely Loud I believe is safe unless the film really sucks.
Of course J. Edgar is out right now. They will never nominate a film with 42% at R.T. Reviews don’t matter much… but THIS much… 42… it’s inevitable to rule it out. Even The Ides of March has a greatest shot than this and it’s reviews were not outstanding.
We still have to wait for The Iron Lady, Young Adult and Dragon Tattoo… Extremely Loud I believe is safe unless the film really sucks.
I’m calling right now that J. Edgar is out of the picture/director race. A lot of people are trying to make excuses for the bad reviews instead of realizing that there are plenty of other films ready to step up to the plate and take its place which don’t have so many bad reviews weighing them down.
By no means am I saying that the best-reviewed films are the ones that are nominated for Best Picture. Rather, aggregate reviews in practice act like more of a barrier to entry. No films get in if the majority of critics are saying negative things. That may be because some Academy members pay attention to Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores, or it may be that the critic scores act as a decent gauge of how the aggregate of the Academy will feel about the films, or it may be something entirely different. I mean to imply correlation, though not necessarily causation. It’s more than just a coincidence.
But the point is this. Only seven films from the past thirty years were nominated for Best Picture despite having less than 70% positive reviews, according to Rotten Tomatoes:
Babel: 69%
The Big Chill: 68%
The Godfather Part III: 68%
Blind Side: 66%
Out of Africa: 63%
Chocolat: 63%
The Reader: 62%
J. Edgar currently has 42%. Do you really think AMPAS is going to drop way down to such a low critics score? I don’t.
I’m calling right now that J. Edgar is out of the picture/director race. A lot of people are trying to make excuses for the bad reviews instead of realizing that there are plenty of other films ready to step up to the plate and take its place which don’t have so many bad reviews weighing them down.
By no means am I saying that the best-reviewed films are the ones that are nominated for Best Picture. Rather, aggregate reviews in practice act like more of a barrier to entry. No films get in if the majority of critics are saying negative things. That may be because some Academy members pay attention to Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores, or it may be that the critic scores act as a decent gauge of how the aggregate of the Academy will feel about the films, or it may be something entirely different. I mean to imply correlation, though not necessarily causation. It’s more than just a coincidence.
But the point is this. Only seven films from the past thirty years were nominated for Best Picture despite having less than 70% positive reviews, according to Rotten Tomatoes:
Babel: 69%
The Big Chill: 68%
The Godfather Part III: 68%
Blind Side: 66%
Out of Africa: 63%
Chocolat: 63%
The Reader: 62%
J. Edgar currently has 42%. Do you really think AMPAS is going to drop way down to such a low critics score? I don’t.
With the new buzz about TinTin, that could certainly shake things up…..has anyone SEEN Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Pardon the fact that I may have been under a rock if so….
With the new buzz about TinTin, that could certainly shake things up…..has anyone SEEN Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Pardon the fact that I may have been under a rock if so….
I think almost everyone is underestimating Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close… If it gets the reviews, only War Horse can beat it. Considering Alexander Payne (who is one of my favourite directors) already have an Oscar (even if it’s a screenplay one), a Daldry win would be more appealing to the Academy members. He got nominated for every single film he did… even The Reader.
And no one says a word about 2 films that actually can shake things for the nominations: The Iron Lady and Young Adult.
I think almost everyone is underestimating Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close… If it gets the reviews, only War Horse can beat it. Considering Alexander Payne (who is one of my favourite directors) already have an Oscar (even if it’s a screenplay one), a Daldry win would be more appealing to the Academy members. He got nominated for every single film he did… even The Reader.
And no one says a word about 2 films that actually can shake things for the nominations: The Iron Lady and Young Adult.
“you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars”
Then why should they be talking about it? This is an Oscar website not a Harry Potter fan page.
“you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars”
Then why should they be talking about it? This is an Oscar website not a Harry Potter fan page.
Oscar wish list
Picture: Melancholia
Director: Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Supporting Actress: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia
Original Screenplay: Meek’s Cutoff
Adapted Screenplay: We Need to Talk about Kevin
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Art Direction: Melancholia
Sound Mixing: Tree of Life
Sound Editing: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Meek’s Cutoff
Original Score: Drive
Visual Effects: Tree of Life
Oscar wish list
Picture: Melancholia
Director: Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Supporting Actor: Ezra Miller, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Supporting Actress: Charlotte Gainsbourg, Melancholia
Original Screenplay: Meek’s Cutoff
Adapted Screenplay: We Need to Talk about Kevin
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Art Direction: Melancholia
Sound Mixing: Tree of Life
Sound Editing: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Meek’s Cutoff
Original Score: Drive
Visual Effects: Tree of Life
What’s silly is I imagine if Scorsese were the Potter director there would no doubting it’s chances…
What’s silly is I imagine if Scorsese were the Potter director there would no doubting it’s chances…
Well, this first draft is 50% wishlist/50% guess (and 90% ignorance, at this point)
Picture: The Artist
Director: Terence Malick
Actor: Michael Fassbender (counting on a rally here)
Actress: Michelle Williams
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave
Well, this first draft is 50% wishlist/50% guess (and 90% ignorance, at this point)
Picture: The Artist
Director: Terence Malick
Actor: Michael Fassbender (counting on a rally here)
Actress: Michelle Williams
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave
What’s really fascinating this year is that so many films that had “great expectations” have in some sense crashed and burned. I mean look at Hanna. Moneyball isn’t really on anyone’s lips so I don’t think it’s going to be a contender in BP. Tree of Life? Don’t see it but I guess since it’s Malik you could say that it might get considered. My Week with Marilyn is off everyones lips. I’m sticking to J Edgar because IMO the reviews are more about the critics “wanted” Eastwood to make and not what he made. Too many of the reviews are littered with “he should have made this a much more darker piece” [my words not the critics.] The reveiws for J Edgar remind me of the reviews for Redford’s Conspirator.
Top BP Contenders right now IMO
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. J. Edgar [and I have my reasons for this]
6. The Descendants
7. Extremely Loud
For Director
Payne
Hazanavicus
Allen
Speilberg
Daldry
Scorcese, Eastwood, and McQueen sitting in the wings just waiting for their name to be called.
If War Horse can capture the hearts and minds of the Academy it’ll win BP. Regardless of how much they claim to love The Artist. How many times in the last few years have we all bet on the front runner only to see it not make the envelope? Last year it was Social Network, the year before Avatar. I don’t think the Academy is as artistic enough to vote The Artist BP.
What’s really fascinating this year is that so many films that had “great expectations” have in some sense crashed and burned. I mean look at Hanna. Moneyball isn’t really on anyone’s lips so I don’t think it’s going to be a contender in BP. Tree of Life? Don’t see it but I guess since it’s Malik you could say that it might get considered. My Week with Marilyn is off everyones lips. I’m sticking to J Edgar because IMO the reviews are more about the critics “wanted” Eastwood to make and not what he made. Too many of the reviews are littered with “he should have made this a much more darker piece” [my words not the critics.] The reveiws for J Edgar remind me of the reviews for Redford’s Conspirator.
Top BP Contenders right now IMO
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. J. Edgar [and I have my reasons for this]
6. The Descendants
7. Extremely Loud
For Director
Payne
Hazanavicus
Allen
Speilberg
Daldry
Scorcese, Eastwood, and McQueen sitting in the wings just waiting for their name to be called.
If War Horse can capture the hearts and minds of the Academy it’ll win BP. Regardless of how much they claim to love The Artist. How many times in the last few years have we all bet on the front runner only to see it not make the envelope? Last year it was Social Network, the year before Avatar. I don’t think the Academy is as artistic enough to vote The Artist BP.
Best Director and Best Cinematography are probably all that Tree of Life can count on, unfortunately. If either of these is forgotten, however, there’s something wrong with the respective guild/AMPAS members.
Best Director and Best Cinematography are probably all that Tree of Life can count on, unfortunately. If either of these is forgotten, however, there’s something wrong with the respective guild/AMPAS members.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
It really would be a shame not having Mallick as a director-nominee. You can say about his film what you want, but the directing was beautiful.
It really would be a shame not having Mallick as a director-nominee. You can say about his film what you want, but the directing was beautiful.
Tombeet, I’m not saying Potter’s scores will make it a BP nomineem My biggest problem is that some bloggers are denying the fact it is the most successful film of the year both critically and in twrms of box office.
Tombeet, I’m not saying Potter’s scores will make it a BP nomineem My biggest problem is that some bloggers are denying the fact it is the most successful film of the year both critically and in twrms of box office.
I think there’ll be one truly indie-indie film that’ll make the cut–maybe Take Shelter or Martha Marcy May Marlene?
I think there’ll be one truly indie-indie film that’ll make the cut–maybe Take Shelter or Martha Marcy May Marlene?
@JP: Well, sometimes you can’t compare the score from RT, Metacritic or IMDB to speak about its chance to Oscar. I remembered some films with low RT like Babel, The Reader, The Blind Side still get BP nomination; and more often than not some of the best reviewed films of that year just didn’t get in. (look at The Wrestler score, compared to The Reader; and imho The Wrestler was very much a better film).
Speaking of Harry Potter’s chance for Oscar, I think they will award this film for technical categories, but dismiss it in main categories.
I’m not really like Harry Potter, and I personally think The Tree of Life is the best film of this year so far. But its chance in Oscar is… low. But maybe the new 5% rule can help the Tree of Life to be BP nomination, hopefully.
@JP: Well, sometimes you can’t compare the score from RT, Metacritic or IMDB to speak about its chance to Oscar. I remembered some films with low RT like Babel, The Reader, The Blind Side still get BP nomination; and more often than not some of the best reviewed films of that year just didn’t get in. (look at The Wrestler score, compared to The Reader; and imho The Wrestler was very much a better film).
Speaking of Harry Potter’s chance for Oscar, I think they will award this film for technical categories, but dismiss it in main categories.
I’m not really like Harry Potter, and I personally think The Tree of Life is the best film of this year so far. But its chance in Oscar is… low. But maybe the new 5% rule can help the Tree of Life to be BP nomination, hopefully.
Sorry… moneyball 8 average. Potter has 8.4.
Sorry… moneyball 8 average. Potter has 8.4.
Jon,
If the Academy will nominate a blockbuster it’s Harry Potter… Hugo is another story (it will get in if it gets great reviews and the most important… because it’s Scorcese’s). If there’s a blockbuster with the smallest chance possible… to get in for BP is Harry Potter.
I can hardly see The Muppets with more than 96 at Rotten Tomatoes, 380 millions in the U.S. and 1.3 billion worldwide.
And I’m really pissed of by how many bloggers are dismissing the fact that Potter is the best reviewed and most watched film of the year. You may not like the film, you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars (I think its chances are very very small)… but dismissing facts. Moneyball…8.4 average, 95% R.T… at metacritic they are both 87. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, widely called the best reviewed blockbuster of 2011… 82% 7.1 average R.T. 68 metacritic.
Jon,
If the Academy will nominate a blockbuster it’s Harry Potter… Hugo is another story (it will get in if it gets great reviews and the most important… because it’s Scorcese’s). If there’s a blockbuster with the smallest chance possible… to get in for BP is Harry Potter.
I can hardly see The Muppets with more than 96 at Rotten Tomatoes, 380 millions in the U.S. and 1.3 billion worldwide.
And I’m really pissed of by how many bloggers are dismissing the fact that Potter is the best reviewed and most watched film of the year. You may not like the film, you may think it has no shot at all at the Oscars (I think its chances are very very small)… but dismissing facts. Moneyball…8.4 average, 95% R.T… at metacritic they are both 87. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, widely called the best reviewed blockbuster of 2011… 82% 7.1 average R.T. 68 metacritic.
You really think Stephen Daldry is ranked lower than Woody Allen and David Fincher? The guy got nominated even for… The Reader. He only doesn’t get in if the film is a real flop.
You really think Stephen Daldry is ranked lower than Woody Allen and David Fincher? The guy got nominated even for… The Reader. He only doesn’t get in if the film is a real flop.
You know what Sasha, you also thought Eddie Murphy was still going to host the Oscars after Ratner was fired, so we’ll see.
You know what Sasha, you also thought Eddie Murphy was still going to host the Oscars after Ratner was fired, so we’ll see.
if ‘tree of life’ and malick are not nominated, i give up on the oscars.
if ‘tree of life’ and malick are not nominated, i give up on the oscars.
I agree with Geremy et al. that at this point no other film seems able to beat The Artist. It’s the film everyone loves and will love. From what I hear The Descendants has a bit of misanthropic streak and for that I’m not sure people will embrace the film wholeheartedly even if they think the film’s well-made. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks Moneyball will hold out by the end of the year and remain a strong possibility for Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, right? All those films coming out this month or next and those we’ve had high hopes for are getting not-great-but or mixed reviews, including Hugo and J. Edgar. If War Horse, Extremely Loud and Girl with Dragon Tattoo get lukewarm reception, then The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball will survive and be remembered among Academy members as their favorites of the year.
I agree with Geremy et al. that at this point no other film seems able to beat The Artist. It’s the film everyone loves and will love. From what I hear The Descendants has a bit of misanthropic streak and for that I’m not sure people will embrace the film wholeheartedly even if they think the film’s well-made. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks Moneyball will hold out by the end of the year and remain a strong possibility for Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, right? All those films coming out this month or next and those we’ve had high hopes for are getting not-great-but or mixed reviews, including Hugo and J. Edgar. If War Horse, Extremely Loud and Girl with Dragon Tattoo get lukewarm reception, then The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball will survive and be remembered among Academy members as their favorites of the year.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Max von Sidow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Actress: Viola Davis (The Help)
Supporting Actor: Max von Sidow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Supporting Actress: Judi Dench (J. Edgar)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Is there any shot that The Muppets could get a Best Picture nomination if the reviews are as good as people are indicating?
Is there any shot that The Muppets could get a Best Picture nomination if the reviews are as good as people are indicating?
No.
Is there any shot that The Muppets could get a Best Picture nomination if the reviews are as good as people are indicating?
Is there any shot that The Muppets could get a Best Picture nomination if the reviews are as good as people are indicating?
No.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I don’t see anything beating The Artist this year, it’s an homage to film that everyone is gonna love, which makes it safe for the Academy. I think TTSS is going to make a play for a nomination in a big way, if it’s as good as people have been saying then it should have no trouble obtaining ~300 #1 votes. I really have no clue what’s going to happen in the Best Actress category this year. Streep, Williams, Davis and Close are all equally likely winners and there’s a good half-dozen actresses, at least, who could jump ahead at any moment. I just put Meryl because I’m hoping she gets her long overdue third Oscar.
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Actor: Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy)
Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supp. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
I don’t see anything beating The Artist this year, it’s an homage to film that everyone is gonna love, which makes it safe for the Academy. I think TTSS is going to make a play for a nomination in a big way, if it’s as good as people have been saying then it should have no trouble obtaining ~300 #1 votes. I really have no clue what’s going to happen in the Best Actress category this year. Streep, Williams, Davis and Close are all equally likely winners and there’s a good half-dozen actresses, at least, who could jump ahead at any moment. I just put Meryl because I’m hoping she gets her long overdue third Oscar.
@Antoinette Well don’t take my word for it. 😉
People think it’s basically either ITLOBAH or Dragon Tattoo that he was talking about. Dragon Tattoo would make sense because it has this week’s EW cover but ITLOBAH would make sense because it had a confirmed screening the same day that he tweeted. We’ll find out soon enough.
@Antoinette Well don’t take my word for it. 😉
People think it’s basically either ITLOBAH or Dragon Tattoo that he was talking about. Dragon Tattoo would make sense because it has this week’s EW cover but ITLOBAH would make sense because it had a confirmed screening the same day that he tweeted. We’ll find out soon enough.
@JJ That’s interesting. I had no idea what he was talking about. He’s always right.
@JJ That’s interesting. I had no idea what he was talking about. He’s always right.
Hugo enters the best picture race and people still insist that Midnight in Paris is a strong contender. It definitely isn’t out of the race, but the fifth most likely? Come on.
Hugo enters the best picture race and people still insist that Midnight in Paris is a strong contender. It definitely isn’t out of the race, but the fifth most likely? Come on.
In the Land of Blood & Honey is going to enter soon. Some people think Dave Karger’s “mystery tweet” the other day was about that, and look who didn’t update their standings in MCN’s “Gurus O’ Gold” this week? Dave Karger. 🙂
In the Land of Blood & Honey is going to enter soon. Some people think Dave Karger’s “mystery tweet” the other day was about that, and look who didn’t update their standings in MCN’s “Gurus O’ Gold” this week? Dave Karger. 🙂
Whoops. I messed up my italics. 🙁
Whoops. I messed up my italics. 🙁
I finally, finally, got to see Tree of Life last night. I totally see what Penn was pissed about. That could have been a masterpiece if half of it wasn’t clearly missing. I have no idea whose fault that is, but man oh man.
Anyway, I’m gonna give you guys an update from the boonies. It took me this long to see that because it never played here (city of almost 100,000). And I was intending to see J. Edgar ASAP, but I looked up the schedules for this weekend and it’s not on it. This has happened a couple times now this season. I looked on boxofficemojo and was surprised that it’s going to 1,900 theaters. It looks like where I live we’re only getting movies that open to 3000 now. The reason I’m pointing it out is because it is odd. I’ve been an Oscarwatcher for more than a decade and this is the first time it’s been this bad this early. Usually you have to wait for the “smaller” ones, The Wrestler, The King’s Speech, etc. But not a Leonardo DiCaprio movie, or a Clint Eastwood movie for cripes sake. I was there on opening day for Invictus and the theater was as full as they get when I go. I know grown up films haven’t been doing that great, but this is a sudden change. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, but I think it will affect the movies that need “the zeitgeist”. I feel like if they’re going to release them to the masses at all, it’s gotta be the first week. By the second week, the damage is done.
As far as the race goes, it seems like from the buzz and dying buzz a lot of movies are getting, we might just end up with a measly 5 nominees in BP. D:
I finally, finally, got to see Tree of Life last night. I totally see what Penn was pissed about. That could have been a masterpiece if half of it wasn’t clearly missing. I have no idea whose fault that is, but man oh man.
Anyway, I’m gonna give you guys an update from the boonies. It took me this long to see that because it never played here (city of almost 100,000). And I was intending to see J. Edgar ASAP, but I looked up the schedules for this weekend and it’s not on it. This has happened a couple times now this season. I looked on boxofficemojo and was surprised that it’s going to 1,900 theaters. It looks like where I live we’re only getting movies that open to 3000 now. The reason I’m pointing it out is because it is odd. I’ve been an Oscarwatcher for more than a decade and this is the first time it’s been this bad this early. Usually you have to wait for the “smaller” ones, The Wrestler, The King’s Speech, etc. But not a Leonardo DiCaprio movie, or a Clint Eastwood movie for cripes sake. I was there on opening day for Invictus and the theater was as full as they get when I go. I know grown up films haven’t been doing that great, but this is a sudden change. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, but I think it will affect the movies that need “the zeitgeist”. I feel like if they’re going to release them to the masses at all, it’s gotta be the first week. By the second week, the damage is done.
As far as the race goes, it seems like from the buzz and dying buzz a lot of movies are getting, we might just end up with a measly 5 nominees in BP. D:
Picture: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs OR Viola Davis, The Help
Sup. Actor: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Picture: Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Director: David Fincher
Actor: Michael Fassbender, Shame
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs OR Viola Davis, The Help
Sup. Actor: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
Sup. Actress: Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Stephen Daldry will make the cut! And his film I think should be higher placed up the list too.
Stephen Daldry will make the cut! And his film I think should be higher placed up the list too.
Sasha, you’ve been writing such marvelous pieces lately. I am drooling at the prospect of seeing these two “symphonies” in the next few weeks
Sasha, you’ve been writing such marvelous pieces lately. I am drooling at the prospect of seeing these two “symphonies” in the next few weeks
Jesus Alonso:
I’m thinking it will go more like this…
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Sup Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
I don’t see The Artist losing. It’s the movie EVERYONE loves. And I don’t think Glenn Close will be able to pull it off. Her performance is too understated and the movie not quite good enough. I love Glenn Close (HUGE Damages fan), but I feel like the Oscars will play out like a Peter O’Toole situation a few years ago.
Jesus Alonso:
I’m thinking it will go more like this…
Picture: The Artist
Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants
Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Sup Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Sup Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
I don’t see The Artist losing. It’s the movie EVERYONE loves. And I don’t think Glenn Close will be able to pull it off. Her performance is too understated and the movie not quite good enough. I love Glenn Close (HUGE Damages fan), but I feel like the Oscars will play out like a Peter O’Toole situation a few years ago.
If Malick manages to make the Directing cut, I think it’s still possie he could benefit from a BP/BD split where The Artist takes the former.
I think the Academy might be more inclined to give Malick his first award than giving Spielberg his third, esp. when we know SS will be back at the dance again, maybe even next year.
Does Malick win out over Hazanavicius? Maybe. But then again this is the group who awarded Tom fucking Hooper last year and I couldn’t believe that one. Just like last year, the DGA award may be a huge indicator.
If Malick manages to make the Directing cut, I think it’s still possie he could benefit from a BP/BD split where The Artist takes the former.
I think the Academy might be more inclined to give Malick his first award than giving Spielberg his third, esp. when we know SS will be back at the dance again, maybe even next year.
Does Malick win out over Hazanavicius? Maybe. But then again this is the group who awarded Tom fucking Hooper last year and I couldn’t believe that one. Just like last year, the DGA award may be a huge indicator.
Check this out:
http://www.sonyclassics.com/awards-information/2011-2012-awards-screenings.pdf
If you scroll down and check out Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen isn’t mentioned AT ALL in the awards listings. It’s FYC for Best Picture, but not director or screenplay. Hm…I wonder…
Check this out:
http://www.sonyclassics.com/awards-information/2011-2012-awards-screenings.pdf
If you scroll down and check out Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen isn’t mentioned AT ALL in the awards listings. It’s FYC for Best Picture, but not director or screenplay. Hm…I wonder…
Right now I’m thinking:
Picture: War Horse
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, The Help (if she goes supporting, they guarantee the win, imho)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: War Horse / Harry Potter VIII (and standing ovation for Kloves?)
But still a long time to go.
Right now I’m thinking:
Picture: War Horse
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, The Help (if she goes supporting, they guarantee the win, imho)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: War Horse / Harry Potter VIII (and standing ovation for Kloves?)
But still a long time to go.
Personally im guessing that if there is gonna be a BD/BP split Fincher would be on the Director side of it with something softer winning Picture. Maybe The Artist or War Horse (Spielberg may win too but then again he already has two)
Personally im guessing that if there is gonna be a BD/BP split Fincher would be on the Director side of it with something softer winning Picture. Maybe The Artist or War Horse (Spielberg may win too but then again he already has two)