My candle burns at both ends,
it will not last the night
But oh my foes, and oh my friends
it gives a lovely light
As we barrel towards the end of the year things start to move much more quickly. I’ve been spending most of this season fretting the 1% – not as in the richest Americans 1% but the magic number a contender needs in order to make it into the first round. But thanks to Ryan’s quick thinking, I have come to accept the fact that it really isn’t about the 1% at all, but about the second round’s magic number, that 9% or 11% or whatever it is that will ensure a nomination.
Why does that matter more? If you think of the 1% as being around 50 or, better, 60 (means more people voted), you can figure many films will make that cut. You have to suck hard not to get at least 50 #1s. Most of our contenders right now will sail through that – even Tree of Life. Maybe even Drive. But after that, you’re looking at films to make number 2 and number 3 spots. This is where polarizing films run into problems.
We do have an idea of how “they” vote, for the most part, but in particular last year’s split was very telling. In the end, it didn’t come down to two movies at all; it was The King’s Speech versus everything else. Why, because The King’s Speech wasn’t LIKE anything else. It stood apart because it was, as the Weinstein’s wisely gauged, a “movie you feel.” The Social Network then was up against very popular other films like Black Swan, True Grit and The Fighter. Hard-edged, brilliant, cold, unfeeling, brazen films — one of the best years for Best Pictures. And what won in the end was the one that had no peer. There weren’t any other conventionally moving, solid dramas like The King’s Speech.
But last year’s slate was not hard to figure in terms of numbers 1s. It was easy to see who would pick King’s Speech (probably nearly everyone), The Social Network (maybe a closer second), Black Swan (a goodly amount, a lot of brazen women), The Fighter (a smaller group but well enough), Inception (enough to make the magic number), True Grit (it had a lot of support).
What movies would have been left off last year if they did it this way? I think Toy Story 3 and 127 Hours would be out. Winter’s Bone and The Kids Are All Right would have struggled. Why, because they weren’t director-driven. Maybe one of these, two at the most, would have made it in.
I still think, to find out Best Picture nominees, we have to follow the director. Even for movies that are “family films” and not maybe “serious” enough for Oscar voters to put at number 1. They only need around 50 or 60 ballots. Surely a movie, even Harry Potter, could get to that very low number. But then you have to think about the majority ballots’ second and third choices. Films that will likely trigger the surplus rule, that is, they are so popular that only 20% of their total votes (first and second round) will be counted, will have their surplus’ redistributed. I’m imagining The Descendants, The Artist and Moneyball – our three strongest contenders right now, triggering the surplus rule. And now I’m trying to figure out what movies will take their number 2 slots.
At any rate, just for posterity’s sake, let’s run down the Best Picture situation right now.
The No-Brainers – these films will have no problem sailing through under the new rule:
The Artist – a perfect film which moves along with grace and intelligence, always winking slightly to its audience, is a film that no one will actively dislike. At best they will say they “didn’t get it.” But most will love it. What’s not to love? Characters we care about, a story that feels immediate, the best medicine or a depressed populace is a cheerful movie like this one. The confident playfulness of the director does not go unnoticed in a year with so many emotionally intense films and/or highly ambitious ones. The Artist stands out not because it is a Weinstein Oscar vehicle, but because it is a damned good film done with artistic bravery, inspired choices and flawless execution. There is no reason it won’t be rewarded for its success. It will be driven by love, mostly, but no one can refuse the charm of its two leads, Jean Dujardin and his little dog too. The Artist is a movie to take the youngsters to see, even if you have to drag them kicking and screaming – it is also one that should be shown to all film students — for the simple reason that it illustrates you don’t need dialogue to tell a great story.
The Descendants – should hit with men and women, old and young. When I think of what drives this film, which most of you haven’t yet been able to see, is that it’s Alexander Payne’s most emotionally mature film to date, I’d say. He waited a good, long time after the brilliant Sideways to tell another story but this one focuses on things outside ourselves, on what it means to be a man, a husband and a father. It is also about care-taking our land for future generations. It kind of hits that sweet spot between crying and laughing that so few movies accomplish – it’s along the lines of Terms of Endearment, As Good As it Gets and Kramer vs. Kramer – movies that are as funny as they are sad in their final moments. When I saw the film there wasn’t a dry eye in the house. Alexander Payne, one of America’s very best directors to have never won an Oscar might be finally due to collect.
Midnight in Paris – when asked in Telluride what his favorite of the year was, Wall Street Journal’s Joe Morgenstern answered Midnight in Paris. The highest grossing film of Woody Allen’s career to date, wonderfully vibrant, a meditation on nostalgia, Woody finds yet another profound observation to make about the human experience. Although he’s returning to his roots in some ways, writing an absurdist comedy, he still manages to go deep with the notion that where you go, there you are — there isn’t anything but the present. Longing for a time that has passed is therefore a fruitless exercise. Midnight in Paris is not just one of the year’s best, it’s one of Woody Allen’s best for many years.
Moneyball – of all of the films released so far this year, Moneyball is 2011’s biggest success. The best reviewed film of the year so far, upwards of $70 million, capturing the zeitgeist, Moneyball feels like one of the most important films this year. Bennett Miller’s direction puts you right in the clubhouse, with what feels like the absence of the fourth wall. You can almost smell the socks dangling out of the lockers, and feel the grass on your feet on the field. The film manages to say something rather profound about the game of baseball: isn’t just about the game and not about winning or losing? To that end, Billy Beane is Sisyphus — maybe we wanted him to end the film having brought the Oakland A’s to victory, but how he changes the game only ensures that he will roll the ball up the hill only to watch it roll back down again. The script, worked on by many hands, is sharp-tongued, funny when it needs to be and ultimately moving where it must be. Brad Pitt has never fit so comfortably in a role before. What a beautifully realized performance. It’s hard to imagine Moneyball won’t be remembered by year’s end. All of the films upcoming will have to blow it out of the water for that to happen.
The Help
I’m guessing, giving the fact that Tate Taylor is mostly an unknown director, The Help could be one of the films nominated without a corresponding director nod. It is filled with brilliant performances by women, white and black women, and somehow it managed to make $160 million or so at the box office, proving that female-driven dramas can make money, even when they aren’t about romance and/or sex. The Help should give many women in the business some hope of what the possibilities might be. Of course, The Help is nothing without the two central performances of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer. It could have been fairly run of the mill, but these two are so talented, so grounded in their performances they just explode off the screen. When Viola Davis spoke at the Elle Magazine Awards she said that she always wanted to be Meryl Streep. She wanted to be able to get those same kind of roles. It is one of the great injustices that such has not been the case for black women. Viola Davis doesn’t need to pull the race card to win, nor does she need to pull it for The Help to be driven to a Best Picture nod. But it’s hers to play any time; to date, in 84 years of Oscar history only one black woman has ever won Best Actress.
The Help is a large ensemble cast. Actors rule the Academy. The Help should sail through the Globe noms, the PGA noms, the WGA noms and of course, SAG ensemble. It will very likely make the Critics Choice’s top ten. I want to say it will also make AFI’s top ten of the year. We’ll have to see how it goes but I imagine it will go that way, and an Oscar best Picture nomination will naturally follow.
The above could very easily be your Best Picture lineup, give or take.
Still to come to shake things up:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo — my early guess on this is that it, being the one that isn’t like any of the others, will have no problem gaining enough number one votes, particularly for those who aren’t inclined towards sentimental fare.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – it definitely has the stuff, the director, the producer, the screenwriter to go the distance.
War Horse — the strange screening pattern is causing the film’s expectations to wobble, but that’s a good thing. You don’t want to come into the race as the frontrunner, especially before anyone has seen your movie. So this strategy could prove quite clever indeed.
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – a big, sweeping epic for thinking people – it will sit in the same house as Dragon Tattoo. It’s not quite in the same room but it’s close enough.
The Iron Lady – Meryl Streep. It’s all about Meryl Streep.
We Bought a Zoo – still shrouded in mystery.
The jury’s still out:
Hugo – Scorsese’s masterpiece of the imagination, one of his best films and certainly one of the year’s best. I don’t kid myself that the “family movie” stigma will attach itself to this but that’s just unfortunate. I’m still hoping it gets recognized.
J. Edgar – again, not your traditional fare. Actor is a certainty and it could get into Best Picture based on that alone, along with the prestige of its director. But we have to wait and see how it does, how the critics respond.
Tree of Life – if anything, it’s safely in the #1 club. It seems likely to me it will get enough number one votes. How many beyond enough is the question.
Shame – this will be up to the critics to pull it through. The NC-17 hurts it greatly, unfortunately.
There are ways to determine a Best Picture’s chances, too. Last year, eight out of ten of the Best Pic nominees had an acting nomination – six from the lead categories, three from the supporting categories (two from The Fighter) represented. This year, it seems as though we could be covered with:
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean DuJardin – The Artist
Viola Davis (and others) – The Help
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor
Still needing an acting nod, Midnight in Paris
Then still to come:
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Max Von Sydow, Sandra Bullock Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
You never know:
Leo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Asa Butterfield, Hugo
The other way, of course, is through Best Director. Last year, all five Best Director nominees had corresponding Best Picture nominations. This year you have to start with Best Director. So we’d go:
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Clint Eastwood, J Edgar
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor
Steve McQueen, Shame
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Pick your five hottest directors and you have your five hottest Best Picture contenders.