Love this chit chat with Tom O’Neil and Dave Karger, the latter whom acts very humble considering how TOLDJA he could be about the King’s Speech. He doesn’t do that – he acts very nice about it all. He predicts only five movies for Best Pic, however, based on an incorrect assumption about the how the counting is going to go. In Steve Pond’s article, if a film gets 455 (or so, magic number time) it is automatically a nominee. But any film that gets over 20% of the total vote triggers the surplus rule. Then you move to round two. At that point, films need around 50 or 60 number one votes to make it to the second round. After that, you want your movie to have more number 1s plus maybe number 2s and 3s. A lot of people are getting this wrong – they think it has to be number ones all the way through – it doesn’t. Only in round one. I am double checking with Steve but that is my understanding.
If the Academy prefers warm over cold – how does one explain:
The Departed over LIttle Miss Sunshine?
No Country For Old Men over Juno?
The Hurt Locker over The Blind Side?
i like dave karger. and i don’t see why people think he deserves credit for NOT being braggy about his predictions last year. obviously he’s not a jerk. he probably just doesn’t take all this as mind bogglingly seriously as some bloggers seem to. it doesn’t bother him either way. he seems easy going about everything, which is why i like him. it’s not life and death, after all, it’s the oscars. he seems to have things in the right perspective
The use of “sappy” is misleading. Karger said that the Academy prefers “warm” over “cold.” A film can have warmth and still be artistically complex and intellectually challenging. I always knew The Social Network would stumble because it was so clinical and detached in its presentation.
Aaaah! Thanks Evan, I didn’t know that.
@Evan, OK that makes it clearer.
There’s a lot of confusion in this thread. There is only one round of redistribution which occurs in two parts. 1) Those films triggering the surplus rule have portions of each ballot in their pile redistributed to those ballots’ second choices; and 2) those ballots going to films that get less than 1% of #1 votes are redistributed to their second choices.
After that, all films with more than 5% of the votes or, if there aren’t many meeting that requirement, the top five films are the Oscar nominees.
There is only one redistribution per ballot, if that. Not multiple rounds.
If there are only 5, I’m confident these will be the choices based on all the guild/globe nominations/popularity. The Artist (Everything), The Descendants (DGA, GG, PGA, SAG, WGA), The Help (GG, PGA, SAG, WGA), Moneyball (GG, PGA, WGA, SAG for Pitt/Hill) and Hugo (ACE, DGA, GG, PGA, WGA).
Moneyball’s lack of a DGA hurts some, but that film has been in the Oscar conversation for months, and has mega star power in Pitt to help push it through. I do hope we have more than 5 though. I think Fincher’s name recognition will get Dragon Tattoo (ACE, GG, DGA, PGA, WGA) in the 6th spot. Midnight in Paris (DGA, GG, PGA, SAG, WGA) makes a very strong case to be in there. I think we’ll have 7. If there is one more film that makes it, I’m going with Ides of March (GG, PGA, Clooney star power). Drive and War Horse (GG, PGA) are out.
As I understand it, there is no round one or round two of vote counting. They just distribute the ballots until (1) all films receive at least five percent of the total votes or (2) there are five best picture nominees.
No?
But Sasha is right. Number one placements are not that important. It’s the first time I realise this. Number one votes are only important in the beginning of the voting proces, where the ballots with the unpopular number one films get redistributed.
After a while they just look at which films have the biggest piles of ballots. They don’t care anymore which one has the most number one votes.
This sounds probably too much like mumbling, but for me it’s a revelation…
asem4u, Midnight in Paris is in. The Help is like 90% in.
best picture(5 movies):THE ARTIST(SURE WIN),THE DESCENDANTS(SURE WILL NOMINATED),HUGO(SURE WILL NOMINATED),MIDNIGHT IN PARIS(70/100,BUT MAYBE WILL GET A NOMINATION),THE HELP(50/100,MAYBE YEA…MAYBE NOT) or THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO(BECAUSE THIS MOVIE REALLY BLOWN ME UP IN THE THEATER,80/100)………….AGREE?
I feel that if The Artist hits the 20% it will greatly benifit both Hugo and Midnight in Paris. Similar asthetics and themes. All three are about Nostalgia. But if either of those two hit the surplus who benifits?(besides each other)
The surplus rule only goes down to the next film on the ballot still eligible, which means it had to have had enough votes to not be disqualified by that point and it’s only a percentage of a vote left based on how much the film with a surplus amount of votes received. So, like, presumably The Artist will have at least 20% more votes than it needs to guarantee it a spot, so you’ll multiply its number of votes by whatever fraction it needs to get to the absolute minimum number of the cutoff line and going down those ballots to the next ranked film will get whatever percentage of a single vote is left.
Karger is cute. Okay, back to being an intellectual.
I love how every year Tom O’Neil tries to stir up a campaign for rogue nominees with pure blind optimism. It’s hilarious to see Karger wrinkle his brow and shoot him down at every turn.
Or, if after the first ballot, no movie makes surplus, and there are 5 film with at least 5%, it stops, no redistribution, we have 5 nominees. Right? Wrong?
Or, if after the first ballot, 1 or 2 movies make surplus, there is redistribution, then 3 or 4 more films make 5%, it stops, then we have 5 or 6 nominees. Right? Wrong?
Tom’s right, there’s always that pocket of indie/art film supporters in the Academy that made possible the BP nominations, when there were just 5 slots, of In the Bedroom, The Crying Game & Secrets & Lies. And last year there was Winter’s Bone, for all we know it got more than 5%. So hope springs eternal for The Tree of Life.
5 is so low, I’m going for 9.
The Artist
Hugo
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
War Horse
The Tree of Life
Moneyball or Bridesmaids
Question, how many Academy members usually participate in the nominations process for best picture?
If the number is much lower than 6000, then the chances of TOL, Drive and Tinker Tailor increase assuming that the advocates for these films are eager to cast their ballot knowing they have a small chance against the more popular candidates.
And I think the redistribution stops when there are at least 5 nominees already. For example, after the first ballot and then 1 or 2 redistributions, they come up with 4 nominees, there has to be another redistribution, now this last round could result into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or even 6 more films making 5%, depending on how close the votes are. If it’s really very close, then more films could make 5% but the nominee count stops at 10.
I don’t know that Karger misunderstood the process. It just sounds like he thinks films like Drive and The Tree of Life are going to get far less than 5% even after re-sorting the ballots.
If I remember correctly, it’s not 20% of the total vote that triggers the surplus rule; it’s 20% more than the number that guarantees the nomination. There’s a difference. Let’s say the total ballot count is 6000. The magic number there is 546. If it was 20% of the total vote that triggered the surplus rule, the number that would trigger it would be 1200, 20% of 6000. If it was 20% more than the number needed, 20% more than the magic number, the number that would trigger the surplus rule, if I’m doing the math correctly, would be 656. The surplus rule is dependent on the number that guarantees a nomination, not the total ballot count.
http://www.thewrap.com/deal-central/ind-column/counting-oscar-ballots-its-complicated-12279?page=0,3
i could not have a bigger crush on karger. what a babe.
I’d rather sappy than jaded and cynical
Funny how they forgot that Christopher Nolan was left out th Oscar race last year. Experts with short term memory.
Tom O’Neil is very unattractive… and a bit of a blowhard.
Loves how Karger scoffs when Oneil brings up annie hall.
sappy is as sappy does.
Must watch this so I can predict the opposite of whatever O’Neil says.