I assume everyone is predicting The Artist to win here, and then win the DGA and then maybe win the SAG ensemble, with some serious heat from The Help, but if you had to choose a film that might upset, which one do you choose?
Here are a few things to note. The first, for the past two years the Oscar race has seemed to have one film in mind for Best Picture until another one takes its place at the Producers Guild and from thence, to Oscar. In both of these years, we had ten Best Picture nominees in the race. The Producers Guild went to ten and then did preferential voting, just as the Academy did. The only truly horrifying step in the race last year was how the DGA shook out. One expected, with such visionary directors in the race, that the DGA would have decided to honor one of them. Instead, it chose the most conventionally made, traditional “Oscar movie” – even when almost everyone (except me) thought that Fincher would win the DGA.