Back in 1999, when Oscarwatch.com first began, the highest of priorities was to correctly predict the Oscar race. There was only one other site, for the most part, that predicted the Oscars – Tom O’Neil’s GoldDerby.com. Tom’s site collected mostly film critics who lined up to give their Oscar predictions every year. The LA Times did theirs, with the help of Kenneth Turan, and no doubt the lot of you did your own Oscar predicting. My aim as an Oscarwatcher was to understand the process. If you ever read early interviews with me, when Variety and other outlets asked me why I started my site, I would always say that I wanted to find out why, for instance, Citizen Kane didn’t beat How Green Was My Valley,when the former is now considered, by many, to be the best film of the year — in fact, one of the finest films of all time.
I don’t know if you asked Oscar voters which film they thought was the best film ever made if they’d answer Citizen Kane. I know that film critics write film history. Oscar voters don’t. And now I know full well why Citizen Kane wasn’t ever going to win the Oscar. It took me a few years, a few heartbreaks, a few happy surprises to see how things go. And by now, I can feel the tide as it shifts and I can see what’s coming. I think people assumed last year that when The Social Network lost the Producers Guild that it was a big surprise. The big surprise last year was how many awards it did win leading up to the race: no one thought it could ever win Best Picture. David Poland proclaimed The Social Network. Dave Karger, our predicting head guru, provisioned The King’s Speech instead. This race was going to be a return to the conventional “Oscar movie” and an ice cold, brilliant piece of work by David Fincher would not. But then it started winning shit? Not only did it win everything but it won where it wasn’t supposed to, sweeping the NBR and the Globes. At some point it went from no way, to maybe? To oh my god, could it? Might it? Yes, it might! Yes, it can! Yes, it will! It can’t lose! So then you have people who folded their arms in front of them and now say “I knew it would never win.” “I never fell for it.” “It was always going to be the King’s Speech.” “Oscar voters aren’t critics.” On and on it went, the weathermen taking credit for the storm they saw coming, and those explaining away how they could have missed those clouds on the horizon, the temperature shift in the air, the signs.
Somehow, in this silly little game we play, the credit for being right matters. If you call yourself an Oscar predictor you’re supposed to be able to separate your own emotions from the act of predicting. What threw me off about last year’s race was that the Oscar voters had been more ballsy in the years leading up to last year. It really did feel like things had changed, or rather, changed back to how they voted in the 1970s. But ask anyone why The Departed won (they owed it to Scorsese), or why the Coens won (they owed it to the Coens) or why The Hurt Locker won (they wanted to award a woman) and you’ll get the same overriding opinion about these voters: if given the choice, conventional films win the day. Bleak, beautifully written, insanely well-directed movies like The Departed, No Country and The Hurt Locker and yes, The Social Network are the flukes. The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, Titanic — those are the norm, the always predictably fair skies in California that reassure us we can face another day. It’s always sunny, it never rains and people are good, love stories win out, and happy endings? We eat those for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Those are the movies that give us the clear skies, the uptick, the soothing.
We used to have a saying around here that went like this, “The Oscars are about who WILL win, not who you want to win.” And believe me, had it not been for that run of great movies — a fleeting moment of greatness in an otherwise ongoing parade of temporary, fleeting glory? I would never have been lulled into believing things could ever change. Nonetheless, after so many years of this, it is less interesting than it ever has been to predict how “they” will vote. Why, because ultimately, I’ve stopped caring about how “they” will vote, because I’ve very nearly stopped caring what “they” think.
But drill down a little deeper and you come back to, “it’s not a ‘they’ so much as an ‘us.'” The Oscar voters reflect public opinion with enough of an injection of critical acclaim so as not to be the People’s Choice awards. They are a step above, perhaps, but they are still a consensus vote of a great many. The point I’m trying to make here is that being an Oscar predictor is about as important as being a weatherman. You can make a prediction that it’s going to rain today based on a few things you know about the weather, and by looking at the sky, and by stepping outside and holding out your hands to feel the raindrops starting to fall. If it rains, and you’re right, others around you will say, “wow, you predicted it was going to rain and it rained.” But at the end of the day, you’re still just a weatherman. The weatherman knows when to bring an umbrella, but he can’t see a cloudy day and take it personally. The weatherman can’t be blamed for the rain or claim credit for a southerly breeze.
I remember when Kris Tapley stopped caring. I remember the year. He’d predicted, by some fluke, that Letters from Iwo Jima would win Best Picture. He actually thought it might go that way. Making that call, taking that risk would have paid off big time if he’d been right. After that, he made a decision that he would see this as a game to be played to win. And now, he’s successfully divorced his own personal opinion from his predictions. Some still can’t do that. Jeff Wells is someone who can’t.
I’ve happily nestled back into who I was when this all began, someone who saw the Oscars as a game, and someone who loves the good movies with a fervor, an unending passion for those who reach for something different, something uncomfortable, something true.
In many ways, The Artist is one such film. It is daring in its own way, perfect in its execution, but in another way, it is everything we’ve ever known about the movies gathered into one wide embrace. All it asks of you is that you agree to watch a silent, black and white movie. If you do, you will be given back what you’ve always wanted from the movies: love and a bit with a dog. It’s every cinematic trope pieced together in a montage. Moreover, it is very likely every Academy member’s nostalgic bliss. See, this is how it used to be before things got ugly.
A better film is Martin Scorsese’s brilliant masterpiece, Hugo. Hugo towers over the Artist in every way. They are opposites – one is by a French filmmaker about American film, and the other is about a French filmmaker made by an American. Hugo is Scorsese’s most autobiographical film to date — and yet the only thing people can talk about is the money. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, The Artist will succeed because it cost nothing to make. Like The King’s Speech, like The Hurt Locker, the Oscars are now about rewarding low budgets. Yet to make the kind of movie Hugo is, or the kind of movie Dragon Tattoo is, you need a lot of money.
“You always used money to …”
“Buy things.”
For me, a good movie is a good movie is a good movie; I don’t think about the money unless the movie is bad. And Hugo is wonderful.
But The Artist is a formidable winner, to my mind. So I will not protest its victory. Were this a perfect world we would have many groups that thought differently and offered up different winners so that it was, at the very least, an exciting race. But the Oscars, they’re like the weather. They are predictable up to a point but happily unpredictable in the same way a warm day in January feels like a blessing. They happen to us. We react to them. But there isn’t a whole lot you can do except get out your umbrella and prepare for rain. Or maybe we’ll get lucky. And what’s coming next isn’t something we could see looming on the horizon.
The easiest and safest way to avoid ridicule is to predict how the general consensus are predicting. You will never get the flukes right but you will never be called “clueless” or “lame” for getting it wrong. This is how most people predict, and I dare say it’s how most people vote. One of the reasons voters keep voting for the same thing is the combination of not wanting to look stupid and the mistaken notion that because something is already winning stuff that somehow makes it more inherently valuable. Of course, it is more valuable in that people seem to agree that it’s “the best,” be that the critics idea of the best (Social Network) or the general public/industry’s idea of best (King’s Speech). An experiment was done on human nature where random people were asked which cup of coffee they preferred. They didn’t know that all three cups of coffee were the same but because they were told one was more expensive than the other two, most of the people tested invariably believed that the one that cost more was “better.”
Therefore, just by winning the Producers Guild, a major award, that automatically tags the Artist as the more expensive cup of coffee. And from here on out, it can’t lose. It will probably win the DGA, which makes Michel Hazanavicius the first director since 1968 whose film won the musical/comedy for Best Picture at the Globe and then went on to win the Oscar for Picture and Director; he really needs to win the DGA to win the Oscar. It’s easy to get caught up in the trauma of last year and think that Oscar voters will award a different director — like Martin Scorsese, for instance — or even Alexander Payne. But you can feel the undertow pulling down when a sweep is afoot — and the same way Rob Marshall won the DGA (but lost the Oscar), Hazanavicius is most certainly going to win the Directors Guild award.
Next, the Screen Actors Guild award, by some miracle, might decide to award both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer — but then give their ensemble award to The Artist, thereby sealing the deal that not only will the Artist win Best Picture but it might sweep. Of course, the King’s Speech holds the record for the least number of Oscar wins (4) for a film with 12 nominations. Even Gladiator won 5. That seems to indicate that there was sufficient blowback among the ranks. Will The Artist have similar blowback or will it win as many as Slumdog Millionaire won, which was 8 out of the 10 Oscars it was nominated for?
Is The Artist Slumdog or is it Chicago? It is already following Chicago’s pattern more so than Slumdog’s except at the box office. It won musical/comedy at the Globes, though someone else won Director (Slumdog took both). Chicago won the PGA, the DGA and the SAG – Slumdog won all of those too. Chicago split the house and barely walked away with Best Picture at the Oscars, where The Pianist (rightly) stole its thunder in the final act.
Either which way, one is always torn between predicting odd picks for the hell of it, and predicting what the general consensus dictates. I’ve never been one to hide behind the opinions of many. My nature is to resist that urge, to expect the impossible to become possible, to get caught up in the dreaded wishful thinking. Therefore, as I give you my predictions here for the nominations I am playing the role of the weatherman – these aren’t what I want to happen, but what I think WILL happen. Bundling up in a practical jacket is what a reliable weathergirl does.
And you, dear readers, don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
My Oscar Nominee Predictions:
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
If there was 8 – one of these….
War Horse
Bridesmaids
Drive
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Actor
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
George Clooney,The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Alternates:
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Demián Bichir, A Better Life
Actress
Meryl Streep,The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis, The Help
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk about Kevin
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Alternates:
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Alternate:
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Alternate
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Drive/Shame
Director
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Alternates:
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Bennett Miller, Moneyball
Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive
Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Diablo Cody, Young Adult
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
Alternates:
Will Reiser, 50/50
JC Chandor, Margin Call
Tom McCarthy, Win/Win
Mike Mills, Beginners
Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash,The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
Tate Taylor, The Help
Steve Zaillian, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate:
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
Editing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
Alternate:
Drive
Cinematography:
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Emmanuel Lubezki, Tree of Life
Bob Richardson, Hugo
Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alternate:
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse
Art Direction:
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Midnight in Paris
Alternate:
Tree of Life
Sound Mixing
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Super 8
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
War Horse
Alternates:
Pirates: On Stranger Tides
Transformers
Sound Editing
Drive
Fast Five
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Super 8
Alternate:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers
Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Harry Potter
Hugo
My Week with Marilyn
Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
John Williams, War Horse
Howard Shore, Hugo
Thomas Newman, The Help
alt: Alexandre Desplat, Extremely Loud Incredibly Close
Foreign Language Film (submissions)
A Separation (Iran)
In Darkness (Poland)
Pina (Germany)
Footnote (Israel)
Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale (Taiwan)
Documentary Feature
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Buck
We Were Here
Undefeated
Alternate:
Pina
Semper Fi: Always Faithful
Under Fire: Journalists in Combat
Animated Feature
Rango
The Adventures of TinTin
Kung Fu Panda 2
Winnie the Pooh
Cars 2
Alternate:
Puss in Boots
Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Tree of Life
Captain America
Makeup
The Artist
The Iron Lady
Hugo
Song
The Living Proof, Mary J Blige, The Help
Pictures in My Head, Muppets
Life’s a Happy Song, Muppets
Lay Your Head Down, Sinead O’Connor
Hello Hello, Elton John Gnomeo and Juliet
After my shameless cheerleading for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” in 2001, I myself learned a hard lesson, your favorite movie and what you think should win has nothing to do with predicting. People can bitch and moan over the winners, but thats the first rule people forget when they make their predictions.
Is this still a film blog site or a Ryan, CraigZ, JoshB… chat room?
Sasha… get some control yourself!
Handing things over to you, rick.
Trust you’ll keep the discussion lively while I get some sleep.
Ryan! I’m not kidding! I’m a butch lesbian! Must I play recite Indigo Girls lyrics?
i have a crush on Melissa McCarthy
It’s totally possible. I’m a butch lesbian who most people mistake for a man, but I decided over the weekend that I have a crush on Patrick Wilson. He’s just so pretty.
ack, Mel. Things are confusing enough. Stop!
Mel is not gay no matter how much of a cocktease he’s trying to be.
P.S. those aren’t all necessarily favorites…just simply the best that I could find for those respective years.
Ah, I got confused when joshb made a comment about the above post being his…Thanks to AMPASSucks, then.
Jesse, joshb didn’t make a long list of faves…I did, but before me it was Chris Price…and both of us were replying to Elton.
well alright then, it’s been interesting.
This comment board took an odd but entertaining turn. And joshb’s long list of his past faves reminds me how many films from my lifetime I still need to see. From 1967-1980 I’m gold and then after that it all falls apart. At the beginning of 2011 I made a pledge to see every quality film that came down the pike and $600 later, I came pretty damn close. The enthusiasm projected by Sasha, Ryan, and some of the more thoughtful commenters helped a lot as well, so danke.
or is Sasha really a guy?
if you’re gay then how can you have a crush on a woman?
if you’re gay then how can you have a crush on a woman?
speaking for myself, it happens. I have a crush on Rooney/Lisbeth.
you’ve made me all giggly/nervy
Sorry….I was just feeling…..gay.
oh dear
hey, it’s ok
off on the wrong foot, but we’ve all regained composure pretty quick
I’m gonna need to smooth out some rough spots in your longer comment so you don’t leave bruises on innocent bystanders, ok? we try to save the bare-knuckle stuff for Oscar Night.
Yay for Gay!
i really am gay, actually, and american too, lol. I spell better, so there. let’s make out.
American or not, I don’t know where you’re coming from
but if I didn’t think you were interesting I wouldn’t have handled this so delicately.
the dark disturbed guys are always interesting
(and you know I’m gay too, right?)
lol, cute
tonto, watson, robin, all cute
I realize im being a troll
pretty funny that somebody as self-absorbed and ignorant as me would barge in to tell anybody else how self-absorbed and ignorant they are.
fact is, I sort of have a crush on Sasha, and I’ll bet she tastes the opposite of bitter.
sorry, I’ll shut up now.
Sleep tight everyone; and especially Sasha and Ryan! Big morning/day ahead tomorrow. We’ll all be rising and shining early! Well, not us-East-Coasters so much- but still!
I can’t believe shit is hitting the fan tomorrow! Excited!
🙂
I’m surprised people aren’t talking more than they are about the whole #1 votes thing! I should think it’s a “factor X” when trying to use historical patterns as a template for discussing this years potential nominees. If there is a category for surprises it’s BP. Someone made a good point suggesting the Help isn’t so strong because who could actually say its the year’s #1 – even women, as some brave poster said, that old guy, I should think. I also find it hard to imagine many selecting Moneyball as #1(not in my top 20). Maybe MIP and the Artist could split older AMPAS members #1 votes, effectively leaving MIP on shaky ground. This #1 vote thingy makes cases arguing for the inclusion of TOL stronger, not to mention other longer shots that people are passionate about, such as, Drive, Melancholia, A Separation, TTSS, TGWTDT, and yes, even War Horse.
RobertlowercaseAora; You are an smart-aleck American, but I’m fine with that because so am I. Call me.
That Ryan guy (Sasha’s sidekick)- You remind me of self-absorbed bartender, just because you work there doesn’t give you the right to drink all night, but I find it funny.
Sasha- yer not too bitter, and besides, everyone has a tendency to be bittersweet in their respective profession and besides, in this arena, it is really quite funny, though not as funny as other bloggers because, like I said, other bloggers bitter-er.
Craig Z – Grow some balls! nothing I enjoy more than balls.
Oco300whatevaitis – Your song is just 6 words long – you’re kinda cute.
I read this site a lot, and MCN and very rarely comment on either. Thought I would as though I’m the Omnipotent Being – cuz it’s FUNNY.
I can write anything I want, and who’s to stop me?
oh yeah, since everyone is commenting on it, I think TSN was betta than TKS,but didn’t realize it ’till well after the Oscars when I never felt like rewatching TKS, but have found that TSN is very rewatchable. How to Train Your Dragon was the best of the year though.
GO Drive, Warrior, Bridesmaids, Apes, GO GO GO!!!!!!! Even HP 7.2 (don’t sit too close Ocoman)
I wrote the previous comment, there is already a poster going by josh in this thread, just thought I’d clarify, like butta
Elton Almeida says:
January 22, 2012 at 2:43 pm
I agree that the better to do when you’re playing the “Oscar’s race predictions game” is not to care so much. I love to “play” this game, but I stoped worrying long ago. Most part of the years, I don’t agree with the Academy’s decision. Moreover, I would like to know from you readers of this blog, if you were academy members what would be your votes for best pic/directing in the last years?
2010
Picture: Inception
Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
2009
Picture: The Hurt Locker
Director: Kathryn Bigelow
2008
Picture: Defiance
Director: Edward Zwick
2007
Picture: Zodiac
Director: David Fincher
2006
Picture: Children of Men
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
2005
Picture: Crash or Munich (can’t decide)
Director: Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
2004
Picture: The Machinist
Director: Brad Anderson
2003
Picture: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Director: Peter Jackson
2002
Picture: Road to Perdition
Director: Sam Mendes
2001
Picture: A Beautiful Mind
Director: Richard Kelly (Donnie Darko)
2000
Picture: Memento
Director: Christopher Nolan
1999
Picture: The Insider
Director: Michael Mann
1998
Picture: Saving Private Ryan
Director: Steven Spielberg
1997
Picture: Good Will Hunting or LA Confidential
Director: James Cameron (Titanic)
1996 (really shitty year)
Picture: Jerry Maguire
Director: Cameron Crowe
1995
Picture: The Usual Suspects
Director: David Fincher (Se7en)
1994
Picture: Forrest Gump
Director: Frank Darabont (The Shawshank Redemption)
1993
Picture: Schindler’s List
Director: Steven Spielberg
1992
Picture: A Few Good Men
Director: Clint Eastwood (Unforgiven)
1991
Picture: The Silence Of The Lambs
Director: Oliver Stone (JFK)
1990
Picture: Goodfellas
Director: Martin Scorsese
Lazarus makes very good points about Hugo Vs Mean Streets, there is no way around it.
@Chris Price–
I think it’s so interesting that we can both love movies like Hugo, Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Prophet, Children of Men and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Truly outstanding movies.
But the only one on your list I did not like all was Black Swan. I really hated every minute of that film (though I did like The Wrestler quite a lot).
Correction:
“I think the Oscar voters here do not really care about BAFTA’s choices either. “
The 250 some directors are mostly DGA members, the 200 some writers of all WGA members I am sure, and it applies to other branches. It is like a small fraction of each guild voting for something specific. All the PGA members are not Oscar voters, but the 250 some producers who vote for Oscars are PGA members, and so on and so forth…
That is why the guilds are important indicators. If Havanvicious won DGA this coming Saturday, the race is over for sure. SAG’s ensemble will probably go to The Help, but it would not hurt The Artist a bit. Unless Scoresese or Payne pulled an upset(I highly doubt it), the race is pretty much over already. Brokeback Mountain’s missing Best Picture despite winning PGA, DGA, WGA is extremely ware in the history of Oscars, it only proves that statistically you can have a film that won three major guilds and still loses the Oscars, but it rarely happens(Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13 as well).
Sure anything could happen, but at this point. The Artist is unstoppable unless its silent film format becomes a backlash which is unlikely at this point. So guys, there won’t be Payne upset, no Hugo, no Scorsese, it is The Artist all the way!!!!!!!!!!!!
“BAFTA voters don`t vote for the Oscars. OK. Neither the SAG, the DGA, the WGA, whatever, but they influence each other and of course many are members of multiple institutions.”
Not true. The Oscar voters are mostly guild members.
The reason BAFTA matches Oscars sometimes is because they come to the same conclusion and consensus. Just like critics groups agreed with the Oscars that Slumdog was the best picture of that year. I have heard from Deadline Hollywood and Tom O Neil saying there are about 500 to 1000 members who are both Oscar and BAFTA voters, but no one can be sure how many, but it is not over 1000 for sure. Even the president of BAFTA himself can’t say how many. I would have to assume the majority of the BAFTA voters don’t vote for the Oscars. If BAFTA had such influence, Titanic would have swept the BAFTA already, as I recalled, Titanic did not win one single award at BAFTA. BAFTA could only give us a sense of consensus, but not the voting pattern because it is not part of the AMPAS, and to be honest with you, I don’t think the Oscar voters here do not really care about BAFTA’s choices either. I am not trying to discredit BAFTA, but I would have to say that I have always thought BAFTA is an organization that wants to be part of Hollywood and Oscars, they want to see if they can have influence on Oscars. They don’t vote for American films as if they are part of Hollywood film industry. I just think it is kind of sad and pretentious anyway. I think they should vote for their own films and encourage their own UK movies, like Australia, New Zealand that are also English speaking nations.
@ RobertlowercaseA
Don`t be so sure brits don`t vote. Heard this many times when almost everyone thought Atonement was left out of BP and the main races. But then it still got BP, Adapted Screenplay and Sup. Actress, bumping out two better films (Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly). I personally didn`t like Atonement, but I had it in my final predictions. But again… Atonement had WWII moments just like The Reader. Tinker, Taylor doesn`t benefits from that. And I think you`re totally right about Tree of Life but sometimes the brits can make some miracles in the race.
BAFTA voters don`t vote for the Oscars. OK. Neither the SAG, the DGA, the WGA, whatever, but they influence each other and of course many are members of multiple institutions.
But I don`t think the british will push Tinker, Taylor for BP. I did not put it in my odds, but I got a feeling Drive will pop up in the BP race.
I’m also firmly in the camp (along with Sasha, Kris Tapley et al), that you cannot predict a bp/bd split, but if it’s going to happen (or even seem somewhat likely), THIS could very well be the year. Unknown French guy up against Scorsese…(but then again, when another legend like Allen is in the field, he will probably take a fair portion of votes that could otherwise have gone to Scorsese?)…anyway; this is still Hazanavicius’ to lose.
If TKS managed four wins, I can hardly see The Artist winning more than four or five (most probably for film, director, score and editing, maybe cinematography and costume if it’s really popular among voters).
I’m still not convinced that Hazanavicus will win Best Director. I really think that Scorcese may pull a rabbit out of his hat and win that one. I don’t think anyone else but Scorcese stands a chance of winning over Hazanavicus. Speilburg will be lucky if he gets a nomination and if he does it might be a combo thing with War Horse/Tin Tin/Super 8.
Yeah, The Artist will win about 4 or 5, not exactly a sweep, but major winning though.
Check this out, the tribute to Spielberg at PGA
http://www.deadline.com/2012/01/spielberg-tribute-clips-at-pga/
The Artist will be nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume, Best Score, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Art Design. It will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Score, and Best Costume. These will be shoo in wins.
The Artist: Winner of 4 Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director. I think it is just as predictable as English Patient’s sweeping. I hope I am wrong, but it can’t lose at this point. I have conceded.
well, The English Patient sweep was 9 Oscar wins. 3 or 4 wins would be a lot less sweepy. I hope it’s ok for me to expect fewer than 9 Oscars for The Artist.
I agree that they will include Glenn Close even if the nomination by itself is her award. And having seen both The Help and The Iron Lady I have to say Meryl’s performance is the one to reward, Viola is great and she’s always been but in this case I think the movie is helping her more than her performance, and Meryl WAS the movie, she was amazing and probably her best role in recent years. So, here’s hoping the Academy realize that, and Streep wins.
BAFTA voters do not vote for the Oscars, period.(Nobody knows exactly how much the membership of both overlaps)
It would have gotten at least one guild award already.
I could be wrong though.
RobertlowercaseA,
Then just continue talking about The Artist and The Iron Lady as much as you want. You know, for balance. Wouldn’t want to inadvertently overlook them.
Great choices for Oscar nominations, including your alternates, Sasha! My only reservation is in the directors’ category. I noticed that the only two directors nominated by both DGA and BAFTA, for instance, were Michel Hazanavicius and Martin Scorcese. Although there is obviously a huge British slant in the BAFTA directorial category, to me it proves that Michel’s and Martin’s work are both daring, extremely heartfelt, and mirror each other coincidentally, like you mentioned in your wonderful essay. It may also mean that we may be looking at an imminent OSCAR split: Best Picture-The Artist; Best Director-Martin Scorcese for Hugo. Let’s wait and see.
Tinker Tailor is still in the conversation, because it beat all other films at the BAFTAs. And yes, because it’s a good film.
“kind of strange that you don’t consider The Tree of Life even as an alternate for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.
I have it as alternate for BP and nominee for BD and OS. I have a feeling the academy will welcome Malick.”
The reason I believe, like many others, that TOL is out of the race is based on the lack of guilds recognition. I think it is very important to predict the Oscars based on the patter, buzz, and the amount of nominations a film has. Yes, one can “have a feeling”, but that feeling is mostly based on his or her subjective opinion about a film. TOL would have gotten at least one major nomination from at least one of the guilds. It is simple, sure, anything could happen, but at this point, I believe TOL is just as hopeless of MI4.
UK moviegoers (Liverpool, to be precise) demanding refunds because they didn’t know The Artist was a silent movie:
http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/01/18/moviegoers-ask-for-refunds-after-finding-out-the-artist-is-a-silent-film/
“A spokesperson for Odeon Liverpool One confirmed that the movie hadn’t gone down particularly well with everybody who’s gone to see it. “Odeon Liverpool One can confirm it has issued a small number of refunds to guests who were unaware that The Artist was a silent film,” said the spokesperson, who went on to intriguingly state that, “The cinema is happy to offer guests a refund on their film choice if they raise concern with a member of staff within 10 minutes of the film starting.”
“The Telegraph spoke to film-fan Nicola Shearer, 25, who revealed that she was asked by staff at the Odeon if she knew “it is a silent film.” When asking why, Shearer was told, “some people complained and asked for refunds because there is no sound and the screen is smaller.” (The reduced screen size was also intended as a homage to the silent films of the early 20th Century).”
kind of strange that you don’t consider The Tree of Life even as an alternate for Picture, Director and Original Screenplay.
I have it as alternate for BP and nominee for BD and OS. I have a feeling the academy will welcome Malick.
Well Weinstein has blitzed the media with advertisements for The Artist. It opened a bit more wide this past weekend and with all the attention and all the raving about it the box office didn’t sustain all the praise. Interesting is that Extremely Loud which got some really bad reviews did pretty well considering that the Underworld sequel opened this weekend as well. Yes the Artist will make a profit but I think what has been said all along about The Artist is true. It’s going to have a very distinct audience and that’s already being revealed. I think Weinstein played it smart holding it back until after the ballots were closed. Had they released it wider before then it might have hurt the number of nominations the film might have received. Now it won’t make any difference and whatever it gets Weinstein will play up in his advertising campaign. The Artist is really going to attract a specific audience and like it or not that’s probably what the producers already realized when they made it.
God, I can’t believe you’re still going on and on about The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech. Your mania about that movie last year is what drove me off the site. Believe it or not, some people actually thought TKS was the better film, and not because they’re a bunch of pablum-fed idiot naifs, as you continue to snidely imply.
you really made a significant opinion in your editorial….best ever…i’ve been following the OSCARS since the early 40’s, back then the studio powers ruled the winners, along with sentiment…..my first suspicion of unjust victories; joan crawford (mildred pierce) over gene tierney (leave her to heaven)….now I look for surprizes,the out of nowhere WIN…….go HUGO
I don’t understand the point of people making predictions when they list alternates anyway…
Why is Tinker Tailor still in the conversation?? It has gotten no love from any of the guilds and yet it’s still being talked about? It’s gotten about as much chatter Extremely Loud and Harry Potter, but people have wisely left these movies off their predictions. I predict 0 for this movie.
PS. The way the universe works, since I posted this it will prove me wrong and TTSS will get something, so there you go.
Why is Tinker Tailor still in the conversation?? It has gotten no love from any of the guilds and yet it’s still being talked about?
I talk about movies I love. I’ll keep talking and hoping, and even if my hopes are dashed I’ll keep on talking. I’d like to see Tinker Tailor stay in the conversation because I think it’s one of the finest movies of the year. If it fails to get a single nomination I’ll keep talking about it.
Tinker Tailor is in my conversations because I enjoy talking about things I love more than I like griping.
Plus I still think that AMPAS may be thinking of some special recognition to the Potter franchise, as BAFTA did. A farewell that actually winks the studio to make more projects like this to revitalize the industry both echonomically and creatively.
Shockers that wouldn’t be so shocking (think of City of God’s noms several years ago)…
1) Margaret appearing in the main cathegories. Specially Lead Actress (Paquin) and Original Screenplay (Lonnergan). Talk about a film that has been quietly being there earning vindications. I doubt it will pay off, but Paquin and Lonnergan are already respected names that may have some subterranean support big enough to make the cut.
2) The Skin I Live In with a surprise nom either at Director (Pedro already did so once), Actor (God knows how eager Hollywood may be to throw Banderas a bigger bone than another GG nom), Adapted Screenplay (the list of real contenders seems to be narrowed to 6, but what if this is 7th?) and Score (even thought Alberto Iglesias votes may focus on Tinker Taylor…)
3) Of course a Harry Potter nom for Best Picture. It is dead already, and after guilds it is looking even at minimum impact on the noms and zero Oscars in exchange for the whole franchise. Regardless of our opinions on the film(s), it’s quite shocking that the industry wouldn’t be eager to reward the project itself in some way, specially with up to 10 possible films nom’d for Picture. But now it’s more a longshot than any other consideration.
4) Melancholia coming out from almost nowhere to some surprising noms either at Director, Actress, Supp. Actress or Cinematography. I mean, lol, it’s not insane to think people may have actually seen the film itself and enjoyed it.
5) Some surprising performers sneaking in, specially never (or little) nominated prestige character actors as John Goodman (The Artist), James Cromwell (The Artist), Alan Rickman (Potter), and so on. Think of Alan Alda for The Aviator (not that he wasn’t great in it).
On my view, there’s only going to be 7 Best Picture nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Help and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. Everything else already falls in the longshot cathegory to me. And Fincher’s film is in, just ’cause its DGA nom, to be honest. I also think DGA will match Best Director, unless The Help’s upset Fincher… which would probably be the shocker of the nomination morning, granted, but Oscar has done weirder.
Elton, here are my faves:
2011
Picture: Hugo
Director: Martin Scorsese
2010
Picture: Black Swan
Director: Darren Aronofsky
2009
Picture: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Director: Jacques Audiard, A Prophet
2008
Picture: The Dark Knight
Director: Christopher Nolan
2007
Picture: There Will Be Blood
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
2006
Picture: Children Of Men
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
2005
Picture: Munich
Director: Steven Spielberg
2004
Picture: Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
Director: Michel Gondry
2003
Picture: City Of God
Director: Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
2002
Picture: Adaptation.
Director: Spike Jonze
2001
Picture: Memento
Director: Richard Linklater, Waking Life
2000
Picture: Requiem For A Dream
Director: Darren Aronofsky
1999
Picture: Fight Club
Director: David Fincher
1998
Picture: The Truman Show
Director: Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
1997
Picture: Boogie Nights
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
1996
Picture: Fargo
Director: Joel Coen
1995
Picture: Toy Story
Director: John Lasseter
1994
Picture: Pulp Fiction
Director: Quentin Tarantino
1993
Picture: Groundhog Day
Director: Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List
1992
Picture: The Player
Director: Robert Altman
1991
Picture: The Silence Of The Lambs
Director: Jonathan Demme
1990
Picture: Goodfellas
Director: Martin Scorsese
along with someone above I want to see surprises
esp
Viggo & Margin call & Young adult & 5o/50, or screenplay for Beginners, ToL, beautiful W.E. OST, Rooney (to me it will be a surprise, a very pleasant one)
as for seeing a movie 30 times I’m shalllow, so it probably still wouldnt make me love TSN ))) tho I adore TGWTDT & only this film made me ineterested in seeing Fincher’s other films. Im happy he made a mainstream film for ppl like me ))))
I like easy, feel good films, sentimental ones & I like seeing Oscars given to them. I love Slumdog I love War Horse I love Tintin, Midnight in Paris The king’s speech
though Hugo left me cold & I really love reading your posts Sasha cause I obviously miss something).))
agree with the predictions btw
The Artist will likely get lots & lots of noms. though Im rooting for the Descendants. we’ll see…
Jane Eyre is this year`s Zodiac but unlike the Fincher movie, will get a consolation nod.
Its Cate Blanchett! or is it Bob Dylan he he
BEST PICTURE:
The Tree of Life
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
The Artist
Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows Part 2
Bridesmaids
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Moneyball
BEST DIRECTOR:
Martin Scorsese
Michel Hazanavicius
Alexander Payne
David Fincher
Woody Allen
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Michael Fassbender
Jean Dujardin
Gary Oldman
Alt: Michael Shannon
BEST ACTRESS:
Meryl Streep
Viola Davis
Michelle Williams
Tilda Swinton
Glenn Close
Alt: Rooney Mara
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christopher Plummer
Albert Brooks
Kenneth Branagd
Viggo Mortensen
Alan Rickman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jessica Chastain
Octavia Spencer
Carey Mulligan
Janet McTiere
Melissa McCarthy
Robertlowercasea – it would appear that way but you never can tell.
No Malick film has received a nomination for acting, so the biggest membership group, the actor branch may still vote for it regardless of SAG. DGA is a worry but I have no doubt he was in the mix.
James, the race for TOL is over.
Davey, I don’t want to sound like a huge Artist fanboy cause I’m not that crazy about it but I think its kind of unfair to compair it to City Lights. That is one of the greatest movies ever maid. Thats like compairing Hugo to The Wizard of Oz just because they are both fantasy films.
There’s barely enough quality for 4 nominee slots and they’re talking about close to 10? Yikes-a-palooza! 😮
Jerry Jane Eyre was released at the wrong time if it wanted serious award consideration. would have loved to see a nom for Wasikowska
Razzies, R.I.P. Not enough is being said about the trashing of their tradition of announcing their worst the day before the Oscar nominations and the ‘winners’ the night before the Oscars themselves. What a sad day.
It pisses me off when people say that seeing a film 30 times is too many times. Who the fuck has that right? If I love a film I want to see it as many times as possible. And as the years pass and one matures you can see so many new things in masterful films. I’ve seen Nashville countless times and I’m sure THe Social Network will be up there too (only up to 7 so far but I’ve watched the opening sequence at least 20times as it acts as a master class for brilliant film openings.
OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR FILMS RELEASED IN 2011 (okay, only some of the categories…)
BEST PICTURE
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
THE HELP
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
A SEPARATION
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
BEST ACTOR
GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)
LEONARDO DICAPRIO (J. EDGAR)
JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL)
BEST ACTRESS
VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
KIRSTEN DUNST (MELANCHOLIA)
MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY)
TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
COLIN FIRTH (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
ALAN RICKMAN (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST)
KATHY BURKE (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP)
MELISSA MCCARTHY (BRIDESMAIDS)
OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
BEST DIRECTOR
TOMAS ALFREDSON (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS)
MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)
DAVID YATES (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE TREE OF LIFE
YOUNG ADULT
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE DESCENDANTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
THE HELP
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
BEST FILM EDITING
THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
Sasha, I couldn’t agree with you more. For me it’s like this: If the Artist had been released in 1929, no one on Earth would care about it. If the Artist were released in 2011 but in color and with sound, no one on Earth would care about it.
I agree you can’t argue with the Artist, you can’t say anything bad about it, it’s a good, good movie. It’s an easy movie. You can’t argue with the King’s Speech. It’s a good movie. It’s a very good movie.
But neither movie makes me want to talk to my friends about it. My dad calls me on Sundays and asks me if I have seen anything good in the last week. I’ll tell him “Oh yeah I saw a cute black and white movie.” But if I just saw The Social Network the conversation will go on for a lot longer.
So, it is what it is. They like what they like. The gimmick. The easy movie. Not the movie that makes me want to talk about it.
So 2 weeks from now, it’s Giants vs. Patriots, but tomorrow this’ll be the BP lineup:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
The lucky 9!
Tree of life is out of the race, I don’t know why there are still people who think TOL still has a chance in major nominations. No DGA, NO PGA, NO SAG, NO WGA, that is pretty telling. Anyway, I guess anything can happen, but I just think Malic’s chances are very slim. It not about who you want to win or be nominated, it is about who will win or who/what will be nominated.
However. I have conceded to the fact that The Artist will win all the major awards at the Oscars. Best Picture, Best Director, Best Costume, Best Editing, Best Score. Winner of 4 or 5 Academy Awards, including Best Picture and Best Director. Maybe there is something I missed. I felt the same way about Chicago. I hated it the first time, but I loved it upon the second viewing. Anyway, Havanavicious will win DGA next Sat(Upsets are unlikely}, The Help will win Ensemble(would not hurt The Artist a bit), just watch. I am just going to relax and see it unfolds.
“The Help” may very well end up being this year’s “How Green Was My Valley”. There is a great deal of similarity between the two films. Funny that after reading this piece I could actually see The Help pulling off a Best Picture win which I couldn’t see before. What drove Valley is basically the same thing that drives The Help. The only difference is that I don’t see anything that resembles Citizen Kane this year and Citizen Kane is not one of my favorite films. I know that should cause a stir but it’s just not. I’ve seen it once tried to watch it a couple more times and then just end up turning it off. But now that you mention Valley and I think about it and The Help now I could actually see The Help winning BP.
Best picture: The Artist, Hugo, the descendants, the help, midnight in Paris, moneyball, the tree of life
Director: Hugo, artist, descendants, tree of life, midnight in Paris
Actor: Djuardin, Clooney, Pitt, Fassbender, Shannon
Actress: Streep, Davis, Williams, Close, Swinton
S Actor: Plummer, Brooks, Hill, Pitt, Kingsley
S Actress: Chastain (help), Spencer, McCarthy, Bejo, McTeer
Craig Z–Of course you’re right that silent film actors can’t be too subtle but The Artist never got to me emotionally on the same level as a silent movie like City Lights.
Hugo did reach me emotionally but never in a sappy way. And there’s nothing in The Artist like the gliding camera shots in Hugo.
I love both The Artist and Hugo but if I had to pick, I would choose The Artist as the better film. Hugo was wonderful but it was missing something for me and I don’t know what it is. I think The Descendants is one level below these two wonderful films.
Antoinette: Well, I agree with you. There is a marked tendency for the Academy to play catch up in regards to performers who get overlooked for their best work and then when the acclaim gets too big to ignore they star in more baity films and get a nomination almost per default. Sure.
Kate Winslet is my favorite (or least favorite, depending on how you look at it) example. Her win for The Reader was a disgrace. Not so much because it was for a lackluster performance in a bad movie, but because it was a blemish on Winslet’s own formidable career that contains a long line of tremendous acting. The same can be said if Michelle Williams wins this year for the underwhelming MWWM, she did SO much more interesting work in Blue Valentine, Wendy and Lucy, Brokeback Mountain etc.
Btw, I don’t think Kidman deserved a win for neither Moulin Rouge or The Hours. But she probably deserved a win for something like To Die For. Unfortunately that kind of female portrayal is not exactly something the Academy would go for (therefore I think they are going to ignore Charlize Theron this year as well).
No Sasha, you haven’t stopped caring. Your articles don’t reek of apathy, rather, they’re impassioned as always.
I finally saw the Artist today and I have to say it was beautifully made. That said, I’ve seen better takes on the silent film era with the old Sid Caesar/Imogene Coca/Nanette Fabray skits on the Sid Caesar Show which was on TV in the 50s. They were just as good in their time and actually funnier. They also captured the silent era a little better, I think, maybe because they were made closer to that time frame so there wasn’t quite the anachronistic take on the material. I might almost accuse Hanazavicius of taking the idea from these skits. Don’t know how many here are aware of this but it is definitely interesting to me.
True and I hope Hugo wins
Isn’t Jane Eyre practically a lock for Costume Design? Pretty surprised to see it not predicted or on the alternate list. The academy LOVES to nominate and award old British period costumes. I also think 50/50 will make it for original screenplay. Everything else I agree with.
OCO, I don’t care about the box office
Davelow, I’m a huge Hugo fan but of course the acting is more subtle. Silent film actors cant really be too subtle since they can’t show their emotions with their voice.
Actually, did anyone see Hugo in theatres in 2-D? Because my biggest complaint was how the screen looked fuzzy behind 3-D images and I sort of lamented not seeing the 2-D version (thought I enjoyed the film overall). If you have any thoughts, let me know, thanks.
@Craig Z. you gotta admit alot of sequels did better than any major film at the box office.
Alan G wrote: “The only film, in my opinion, that deserves to win the Academy’s highest honor is without a doubt HUGO, so I have to agree with Sasha on that. It’s a brilliant homage to cinema, but more importantly it’s themes are so much deeper than THE ARTIST. The Kinglsey storyline has to speak to filmmakers deeply desiring for their work, their contributions, to be remembered and acknowledged. The young boy just desiring to find his place in the world…. these are traditional, classic themes.”
Totally agree with what you say, Alan G. The acting in Hugo is also a lot more subtle at times than The Artist. Some have complained that Hugo has pacing issues but it really demands that you become enveloped in its magical world. On second viewing, I noticed the scenes in which Hugo walks through the cemetery on the way to Melies’ home. Such evocative work. So much to admire. I can’t imagine what this film will be like watching in 2-D on a TV screen.
I think it’s also so rare to reach a consensus in any year. Even on this site, I’ve seen plenty of commenters group Drive, The Tree of Life, and Melancholia together as three masterpieces that deserve nominations and wins. I had problems with all three. Doesn’t make me wrong, doesn’t make you wrong. It just means we have different tastes. As long as we expose ourselves to as many films as possible and remain open to the experience and honest with our own feelings, our opinions matter. Antoniette’s right in that too many Oscar voters miss films or vote because a film feels like an Oscar winner because of a vague critical mass. But hey, it’s not like Transformers 3 is the frontrunner.
I’m sticking with “War Horse” and “Tree of Life” for best pic noms in a field of eight. I sense that there is a lot of love for those films in the Academy at large – for very different reasons. No director nom for Spielberg, but I’m going with Mallick in place of Fincher, who’s “TGWTDT” I suspect will not make good on its DGA nom.
As for number of noms: I say “Hugo” gets 12 and “Artist” gets 10. I think “Artist” becomes a low total best pic winner.
Chicago split the house and barely walked away with Best Picture at the Oscars, where The Pianist (rightly) stole its thunder in the final act.
CHICAGO WON BEST PICTURE…
THE PIANIST WON BEST DIRECTOR INSTEAD…
@julian the emperor
They behave like sheep just like the rest of us.
I don’t behave like a sheep. *shrug*
I’ve been here for a long time. And every year I watch performances and films fall through the cracks. And you know what inevitably happens? The filmmaker who fell through the cracks gets nominated either the next year or the one after that, and sometimes wins, for an inferior film or performance. I’ve always thought it was the Academy going “Whoopsie!” when they finally get around to watching the films. They vote without watching and go based on what they’ve heard. Everyone knows this happens. They catch up on the movies when they have time and then they realize ‘Gee! Nicole Kidman was great in MOULIN ROUGE!. Hmm. If I’d watched it in time I’d have voted for her. Well, she’s got a funny nose in this new movie. I’ll vote for her for that. Same difference.’
I’m not penalizing the best films just because they’re the frontrunners. That’s not the case at all. I’ve seen all of Sasha’s predictions and alternates for BP except THE ARTIST. Out of the movies I’ve seen that were eligible this year those are not the best, imo. And I think this year is crappy to boot. I’m not joining some kind of backlash. I’m not like that. I think that if the Academy did what they were supposed to do, watch the films and honestly fill out their ballots, another movie, or maybe more than one, would pop up as a “surprise” nominee.
OCO, I would not mind if HP was nominated for Best Picture. But it’s not going to happen so I’m over it. You need to get over it too.
@SC8Official yeah I do, I mean of alot of movie/film critics said alot of great things about Harry Potter 7.2, and what respect did it get from the state/city critics, BFCA, Golden Globes, and BAFTA? Craig Z. let me ask you something, don’t you think Harry Potter’s last film deserves to be nominated for Best Picture for this year’s Academy Awards (now counting it being snubbed at all those critic awards)?
Ryan, Well the first two times I said you were acting strange it wasn’t really an insult. I found your sassyness sort of amusing. The last time was my bad. I missunderstood your sarcastic tone.
The only film, in my opinion, that deserves to win the Academy’s highest honor is without a doubt HUGO, so I have to agree with Sasha on that. It’s a brilliant homage to cinema, but more importantly it’s themes are so much deeper than THE ARTIST. The Kinglsey storyline has to speak to filmmakers deeply desiring for their work, their contributions, to be remembered and acknowledged. The young boy just desiring to find his place in the world…. these are traditional, classic themes. What I liked best about it was that while the film was emotional and entertaining, it gave me a (gasp) happy ending. Nothing ambiguous, just a good old fashioned delightful ending where everyone’s story ends on a high note. I was entranced by every frame – so exquisitely crafted but at its core, just a satisfying story by one of the greatest living directors in my lifetime. While THE ARTIST is cute and clever, it pales in comparison to HUGO. For me, the damn dog was the best part. And THE DESCENDANTS, while a great movie is so fucking depressing. Just a big old bummer. WAR HORSE was sugary schmaltz, sorry, but true. The only other film that comes close to HUGO is Fincher’s DRAGON TATTOO and I also respected deeply the effort of Daldry with EXTREMELY LOUD. But for me the best film achievement of the year is HUGO. And if Scorsese doesn’t win best director, I will seriously lose it.
Sasha reminds me of a great baseball writer trying to pick a World Series winner, tempering fan love with the knowledge that your team’s bullpen kind of sucks….
Loved the article, although including Million Dollar Baby in the “sunny, reassuring” group of Oscar winners seemed off to me. First off, LA’s never looked grayer and secondly, while that film has plenty of redemption, the ending is about as bleak as it gets. Very different from Slumdog.
Ryan, sorry about the cold. I’ve had the same thing this week although for me it just meant blowing my nose through on-demand flicks I missed from earlier. Would not have wanted to sit through The Artist with sinus pressure. And yes, The Guard made me laugh a lot more than The Artist. “I’m a sociopath, not a psychopath! They explained that to me.”