A Quick Look at Box Office
As we head into the Producers Guild tomorrow, it’s a good time to look at how our contenders, or those we think will be contenders, or might be contenders, or who could be contenders are faring in this Oscar season. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will become the highest grossing Best Picture contender behind The Help (and Bridesmaids if you want to count it). It just hit the $90 mil mark and should hit $100 mil without blinking. Oscar nominations, if there are any, can only help the Dragon Tattoo but it will also do just fine without them.
1. The Help – $160 mil
2. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – $90 mil
3. Moneyball – $75 mil
4. War Horse – $67 mil
5. Midnight in Paris – $56 mil
6. Hugo – $54 mil
7. The Decendants – $47 mil
8. The Artist – $9 mil
Of course, The Artist hasn’t yet gone wide like the other films have, so it’s not a fair contest that way. But also, the only thing worth noting here is how much bloggers underestimated Dragon Tattoo and its current heat. It’s got word of mouth buzz. The producers don’t judge films on box office, really, and the thing is – it’s hard to use that as a measure of success. But I do like it that The Help and Dragon Tattoo are films with strong females in them – yet in every other way they’re opposite each other.
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Box office. Again. Sasha we get that you’re not thrilled with the Artist. But where was your obsession with box office when you pushed so vigorously for The Hurt Locker??
Hugo is a HUGE BOMB. With a 170 million dollar budget and not even a third back domestically.
Ditto War Horse, it won’t even make its budget back it seems, though it will likely benefit the most from Oscar Noms box office wise.
The Artist will make 20 million tops and will challenge Hurt Locker for the title of the floppest BP Winner ever. Compare it to last year when you had a global blockbuster take down the BP prize.
too bad there’s no sequels on that list
no offense, but is The Help (besides Bridesmaids) is the only major film that made only $100 million in 2011?
Why’d you leave off PGA-nominated Bridesmaids and The Ides of March?
It’s pretty clear to me she listed the 8 frontrunners for Oscar noms and that’s why the other films people mentioned are not on the list.
I lol’ed @ floppest BP winner ever. Some of you are too much.
Although I like The Artist a lot, I wouldn’t be surprised if The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo shakes up the proceedings at the PGA, DGA, and even possibly the OSCARS! Don’t rule out David Fincher. Considering what happened to his 2010 Social Network film, 2012 may very well be his year of vindication!
red wine: How is War Horse a bomb? It’s already matched its budget. Sure not all of that goes to the studio, but a bomb does not reach that number. Plus it’s opening in more markets worldwide, and the Oscar noms should give it more life.
@ red_wine
Are you serious? The Hurt Locker wasn’t a flop. It didn’t make a lot of money, but it was never expected to. The Artist is making a lot more money than anyone could realistically have expected a black-and-white silent French film with no A-list stars to make. It’s expanding this weekend and is expected to make plenty more dough.
Box office success is relative. Each film ought to be measured against its own expectations. The Artist cost $15 million. It’s already at way over that due to international coin, which is expected for an international film. It will also likely close with over $15 million domestic. For a film like The Artist, that’s one hell of a success. Hugo, meanwhile, is not the flop people are declaring it to be. Bear in mind, it hasn’t closed yet, and was probably never expected to earn back its budget. Studios are likely to pour money like that into a Scorsese film. We always hear how blockbusters make a lot of money which can then go into financing smaller, critic-friendly films. So what if one of those films costs $170 million? In Hollywood terms, that’s a very reasonable investment for a film of this calibre.
But then again, Paddy M, what do you define as a box office flop, if not Hugo? (I agree with you on THL and The Artist not being flops by any means). I bet you that the studio behind Hugo are not exactly happy with those numbers…
Btw; The Descendants could easily reach 75 mil come Oscar time, it has just expanded, so there should still be plenty of life left in it just yet. That is not going to have a major effect on the Oscar race (I suspect The Artist is too far ahead by now), but it certainly solidifies its runner up status and keeps its buzz alive. If nothing else that helps Payne in screenplay and Clooney in best actor…
Studio’s campaign money now is to target key awards that will boost sales. Campaign dollars now translates to Oscars.
If a film that’s released earlier has made the dough, exhausted the DVD market, then spending campaign money now is the law of diminishing returns–that cash should go to newly released (from limited to wide) film, to cover the loan, investment.
So the later films, and their categories nominated, have an advantage over films released earlier.
Also, the cheaper a film was made, the more money can be used for campaign now.
Oscar race is Hollywood’s political campaign. Studios vie for supremacy. The Oscars rewards the victors with golden spoil. That has always been since day one.
Box office. Again. Sasha we get that you’re not thrilled with the Artist. But where was your obsession with box office when you pushed so vigorously for The Hurt Locker??
I said it had not yet gone wide. Also, The Artist only cost $16 million. It doesn’t have far to go to make up its money. The Hurt Locker is one of the best films ever made. I love The Artist — but it doesn’t need the push from me that Hurt Locker did.
“Oscar nominations, if there are any, can only help the Dragon Tattoo but it will also do just fine without them.” Sasha what in the world do you mean “if there are any” Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Original Score with a good chance for a nom in Cinematography, and possibilities in Lead Actress and Sound Mixing.
Commercial success is relative. 90 million for Dragon Tattoo sounds a lot for an R-rated edgy film but the thing is that Dragon Tattoo had a budget of small superhero movie, not an R-rated edgy thriller and is not making superhero money. 90 million domestic was a lot for The Social Network even if you assume that the theatres kept their part of of it. With this one after giving the theatres their share Somy won’t be even getting the budget back domestically. Internationally, yes. Domestically, no. To spin this middling performance as a success is willfully ignoring that the movie lucked out that it can’t be considered an outright box office bomb.
The irony is that Sony has no one to blame but themselves for greenlighting a risky budget like that. And just like we did with Hugo we simply lucked out that the studios pumped money into a project that was good even if its commercial success was an uncertainty. But neither of these movies’ box office performance justifies celebration or comparisons with previous smaller box office success winners. Neither of these movies is The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, or even The Social Network. Actually, they are not even The Hurt Locker which was never aimed at mainstream success.
Dragon Tattoo and Hugo were not produced and released as arthouse movies/indies/Oscar winners. They were supposed to be blockbusters with huge releases, with a clothing line and 3D glasses. Dragon Tattoo was supposed to start a franchise. (Judging by the questionnaires Sony has been handing out in some locations – “Would you like to see a sequel?” – that might not happen and most likely won’t on another 90 million budget.) that makes their failure at that much more noticable than The Artist’s limited release 9 million.
In short: Sasha, this list needs context.
Commercial success is relative. 90 million for Dragon Tattoo sounds a lot for an R-rated edgy film but the thing is that Dragon Tattoo had a budget of small superhero movie
I never get tired of pointing out that The Departed had a budget of $90mil in 2006 (adjusted for inflation The Departed budget would be $98mil.)
It took The Departed 4 weeks to earn back its budget.
It took Dragon Tattoo 4 weeks to earn back its budget.
Need more context? Studios have figured out that R-rated thrillers don’t make superhero money. It doesn’t seem to bother them a lot.
@red_wine
Ditto War Horse, it won’t even make its budget back it seems, though it will likely benefit the most from Oscar Noms box office wise.
********************************
War Horse”s budget is 66 million and it made 69 million in 26 days. it is not flop.
In short: Sasha, this list needs context.
Here is what matters to me: how badly people want to see the movie, how good is the worth of mouth.
Here is another thing that matters to me: the level of effort put out to make a great film. Scorsese achieved that with Hugo. It is a splendid, spectacular beauty of a film, one I consider to have lasting impact….it matters to me that someone (Scorsese) and a studio took that big of a risk.
What doesn’t matter as much to me: how much a movie cost to make. The only time that matters is with movies like Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech and The Artist. In those cases, their tiny budgets ARE the reason they do so well. They have an “Oscar story” ready made.
Finally, there is one movie that is like The King’s Speech – The Help. Only no one wants to admit that.
The aim here, with Oscar, should be to reward the quality of the film regardless of the budget. The Departed had a $90 million budget, broke even and still won Best Picture. But most of the recent winners have been the ones that cost a little to make and earn back a lot more money. But the reason I wanted to do the list is because it’s ironic to me how a movie like The Artist can be the frontrunner, the film that simply can’t lose, and yet, when all is said and done, if it makes $50 million it will be a huge success.
Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Original Score with a good chance for a nom in Cinematography, and possibilities in Lead Actress and Sound Mixing.
Just hedging my bets. I don’t want to be too disappointed….
Great job, Ryan, pointing out the Departed budget comparison/ Unfortunately, I feel there was a big feeling of ‘let’s finally reward Scorcese now that he’s made a gangster film’.
I’m hoping that with the guild nominations that Dragon Tattoo can get a push and the Academy can go back to embracing films with darker themes, which reflect out times, rather than safe feel good nostalgia.
There is no doubt in my mind that a studio pumping 175 mill+ into a 3D family film was expecting to recoup that money domestically, at the very least.
It is unfortunate that commercial bombs like Hugo will continue to push the trend towards reliable franchises and sequels.
I just saw that Moneyball passed 100 million worldwide, so it’s looking like a solid double (sorry). Remember guys, the numbers above are domestic, which might matter in terms of voters who have seen the film, but not in regards to whether the movie can be defined as a flop or not. Daniel Craig and the book title are huge worldwide so, like The Departed, Dragon Tattoo should earn the same amount overseas as it does domestically. And that’s before we consider the ancillary market.
As far as Hugo goes, I take solace in the knowledge that it will get an impressive number of Oscar nominations including Best Picture, even if the public was more interested in seeing crap like the newest Twilight movie, etc. I think that it’s a good message that projects like this are worth investing in even if the general movie going public has atrocious taste.
@ Julia
‘Commercial success is relative. 90 million for Dragon Tattoo sounds a lot for an R-rated edgy film but the thing is that Dragon Tattoo had a budget of small superhero movie, not an R-rated edgy thriller and is not making superhero money.’
It’s not a superhero movie. Why expect it to make superhero money? And its box office trajectory thus far suggests not only that it’s going to exceed $100 million but that it’s going to keep going for a good few more weeks, particularly if it earns some major Oscar nominations.
Superhero money? What…like Cowboys & Aliens?
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: $91 million after 30 days
Cowboys & Aliens: $92.8 million after 30 days
I wonder which will have closed with more by the time Dragon Tattoo is out of theatres…
@Matt
If that were true, then why the hell was it dumped on 1200 screens against two other family films on over 3000 screens? Paramount was expecting LESS than the 55 million it has ended up grossing because of stellar reviews and word of mouth. Scorsese is a director whose films are always steep in the red, but for whatever reason, those who bankroll them don’t care, probably out of respect for his vision as a legendary filmmaker.
@Zach “Always steep in the red” is way off. Shutter Island, The Departed, and The Aviator we’re all hits and Gangs made a small profit in theatres despite its budget. Hugo will lose some money in theatres but it’s great reception and PG rating should let it break even with DVD and Blu-Ray sales and plenty of showings on television.
Supposedly The Descendants is now playing everywhere, but it’s still not showing in Denton, TX (a semi-college town of 100,000+ that’s 30 miles north of Dallas). Three major multiplexes nearby aren’t showing it, though one now has The Artist.
This may be mentioned in earlier posts I’ve skipped over, but will Hugo get a second theatrical push following the Oscar nominations announcement?
Wow – Sherlock Holmes has legs. Those earnings might be shy of Part 1′s, but they’re still pretty impressive for a movie people were calling a dog a couple weeks ago. And the global is already at 400.
one I consider to have lasting impact….
And it’s going to be making money way after we’re all dead.
Which reminds me. A lot of movies like THE HURT LOCKER or THE DEPARTED probably made more money on DVD after they won the Oscar or more specifically because of it. Where do we find out how much movies have made to date? I’d think they would have at least tripled their box office takes by now.
@Antoinette: The Hurt Locker made 17 million domestic, 32 million overseas, and 33 million in domestic DVD sales. At a budget of 15 million plus advertising and an awards campaign, it probably cost about 30 million bucks. That makes for, I’m estimating, a 50 million dollar profit. Without the Oscar attention? More like 5 million I’d imagine.
And The Departed made 141 million in DVD sales and gets shown on television all the time. Huge money-maker, although it’s gross has more to do with the cast and general badassery than winning the Oscar, I think.
The Departed made 141 million in DVD sales and gets shown on television all the time. Huge money-maker, although it’s gross has more to do with the cast and general badassery than winning the Oscar, I think.
I think you’re right. The Departed DVD hit stores Feb 13 — 12 days before the Oscars. Nice timing.
A lot of its Oscar heat came from the established fact that it was already Scorsese’s biggest money-maker before it got a single nomination.
I listen to the Oscar Talk podcast from Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson. A couple of weeks back they were trying to say how disappointing Dragon Tattoo was, box office wise, when it is anything but considering it’s dark content.
I think Tapley is great but lost faith in his judgement when he states that Dragon Tattoo sucks while Tin Tin is one of the years best.
The Artist is going to win the Oscar for Best Pic, and in all likelihood Best Director. Of course, it’s fun to see what could beat it but it’s approaching ‘almost lock’ status. Once it wins it will go wide and end up making decent money.
The Departed had good timing in the release of the DVD, was a huge moneymaker (for an Oscar movie nowadays) and there was the need to award Scorsese. All of this helped to compensate the weak campaign (that, by coincidence, we`re seeing all over again with Hugo) with DiCaprio getting nominated for Blood Diamond an year he could have won if nominated for the right film just like Kate Winslet.
Hugo instead was kind of weird the way it was released… in the same day as Muppets and Arthur Christmas, the 3 split and none have become a hit. Hugo should have had a limited release and then gone wide as most of the november/december releases.
Then Ben Kingsley…. how could they not campaign him properly to get a spot in one of the weakest Supporting Actor categories I can remember. One of the most respected actors ever playing an iconic role. This acting nomination can cost a lot of Hugo as well as the fact that it was a box office failure considering its high budget. Unfortunatelly.
The Artist is going to win the Oscar for Best Pic, and in all likelihood Best Director. Of course, it’s fun to see what could beat it but it’s approaching ‘almost lock’ status. Once it wins it will go wide and end up making decent money.
I know. I do know that much. The truth is I don’t even mind if it wins. I think it is a worthy title for the prize. My only slight beef with it — and it’s really a non-issue – is that it isn’t an American production. And I hate to see the Oscars reward, for the second year in a row, an international film. Call me a nationalist or a xenophobe or whatever you want – but I really feel like they need to honor their homegrown films when they are as good as they were last year, and as good as they are this year. The Artist is way way a better choice than last year’s winner….
Sasha said The Hurt Locker was one of the best films ever made…. mamma mia, is this really in the same level as The Godfather, Citizen Kane, Gone With the Wind, 8 1/2, The Seventh Seal, The Grapes of Wrath…
@ Sasha,
The Academy chose to award an international film in one of the best years for american cinema in the last 30 years (2010). Imagine in one of the weakest ones (2011). I don`t know how to explain why the American love typically british films like The King Speech or even TV productions like Downtown Abbey and British love typically american productions like The Help. It took a BP nomination from Hugo, Moneyball, Dragon Tattoo, Midnight in Paris…
Awarding US for is for the AFI, AMPAS is an international membership – isn’t it? Started by an Englishman ?
“My only slight beef with it — and it’s really a non-issue – is that it isn’t an American production.”
But it does pay homage to what is essentially an American art form. Had it been done in the style of Pandora’s Box or The Cabinet of Dr Caligari, your beef would be more legit. The musical comedy/star is born/thin man doggie style is definitely American.
Perhaps AMPAS should do what most countries do – exclude non-indigenous productions from Best Pic and put them in a separate category – Foreign Film (instead of FFL, which is dumb as it is)
I meant FLF (foreign language film)
No question that Paramount has screwed up the marketing and Oscar campaign for HUGO so far, but it’s not too late. They need to re-release the film after the nominations and reframe it not as a children’s film, but a magical tribute to the art of filmmaking. I think THE ARTIST is great, but know of plenty of people who were not impressed by it. HUGO, on the other hand, is loved or liked by most people I’ve come across. A technical and heartfelt masterpiece by a beloved director, featuring groundbreaking Hollywood craft and technology. It would be a very worthy Best Picture. There is always an audience for a great film. You just need to market it correctly. Paramount needs to step up – not only for the awards recognition, but to make back their investment.
Fox Searchlight has screwed up more than any studio this year. They insisted on truncated versions of both Tree of Life and Margaret, and then barely released either one. A Brad Pitt/ Sean Penn movie, fresh off a big win at Cannes, would have made decent money opening weekend if it had played on a lot more screens. Sure, sone people might have came away disliking it, but their money would have already been paid. Instead, Searchlight never gives it anything approaching a wide release.
The Margaret fiasco is possibly worse. If they weren’t going to support it or give it a real chance to find an audience, why not just let its few attendees (critics included) see the Director’s Cut?
Finally, we have The Descendants. Many argue that its Globe win and likely nominations this coming week make this the perfect time to go wide, and I see some sense in that (though it easily could have not done well with the Globes). But the film had major buzz months ago, including a lot of promos. But it didn’t play a lot of mid-sized cities where average people would have eaten it up. Instead, it remained primarily in arthouse theaters and huge cities for nearly 2 months while an inevitable backlash developed and other films continued to rise in stature (namely Hugo).
Sorry for the errors. Typing on my phone in back of a speeding car spells disaster.
I completely agree with steve50. Maybe Oscars should be american, foreign movies should not be nominated. oscar telecast should not be on tv in other parts of the world. american movies should not be sold abroad. hollywood should cut salaries by 50% or lay-off 50% of people. Although, there is logic in that, trying to recognize home production rather than serving as some international awards. Because then it’s funny when, like the Oscars, the Brits try to do the same with their BAFTAs, to recognize movies from around the world and present their selections as the best movies (of the world) and end up nominating mostly american movies and forgetting about their own achievements (Help versus Weekend). French would not nominate four French movies with one american that would lose and then claim that their French movie winner is the best movie in the world. And then, maybe somebody would be right when saying, Hey, Hurt Locker is one of best AMERICAN movies ever.
Dragon Tattoo is a solid hit, it will probably end over 120M in the US, and 300M+ worldwide. War Horse is decent, too, 80-90M in the US and 200M+ worldwide, and it ‘only’ cost around 70M. Sure neither are huge moneymakers when we look at the budgets, but both should be still considered at least decent performers.
On the other hand, Hugo is in big trouble. If it had managed to make over 100M in the US (and that would have been still not enough, just at least a prettier number), it could be the frontrunner by now, but the fact it will lose serious money, I think will get in the way of serious Oscar-wins. Sure, money shouldn’t be a factor…but let’s not kid ourselves, we all know it IS.
I think the film that doesn’t get enough credit when it comes to BO, is The Descendants. It is around 50M already and its widest release to date was 878 theaters…although I don’t understand why Fox Searchlight didn’t give it a considerable expansion this weekend after the big Golden Globe-win, it might have been its last prominent victory, they should have at least tried to put it to good use…according to BO, it is not only NOT getting more theaters, it is losing 100 and will be in 560 this weekend. I guess the only reason is, they didn’t want to send it up against other expansions (Loud and Close, The Iron Lady and most importantly, The Artist).
going to see TGWTDT 7th time this wkend
not from the US so cant help the BO there ))
The Help is not even released here now booo
(((
but its probably for the best that it will be out after the Oscar nominations. The Artost too.
i thought War Horse would do OK
“I think Tapley is great but lost faith in his judgement when he states that Dragon Tattoo sucks while Tin Tin is one of the years best.”
Both of them are in my Top 10 of 2011
)
I think Tapley is great but lost faith in his judgement when he states that Dragon Tattoo sucks
To be perfectly fair to Kris, he’s signed a 3-yr contract to hate everything Sasha likes, especially Fincher. And I had to sign an agreement to hate everything Kris likes, especially Jason Reitman. Guy hates everything in English (except for Cher), and Jeff Wells hates everything with a Southern accent or poor people. Craig Kennedy is responsible for hating all the films that would be never be nominated at the Gothams.
It’s a NATO alliance thing.
“Sasha said The Hurt Locker was one of the best films ever made…. mamma mia, is this really in the same level as The Godfather, Citizen Kane, Gone With the Wind, 8 1/2, The Seventh Seal, The Grapes of Wrath…”
Actually, I would place The Hurt Locker above two of the movies you’ve listed above. But I’m not saying which two…
Nice writer assessment, Ryan. I actually loved Young Adult, though.
When Sasha says The Hurt Locker is one of the best films ever made, I wonder how large a list she’s placing it on. Like how I have Dragon Tattoo on my personal “great movies” list, but it would rank near the bottom of about 140 titles.
According to Deadline, The Artist is bound to deliver an unspectacular weekend at the Box Office after getting a considerable expansion. Apparently it made around 0,8M on Friday and is expected to have a 2,5-3M weekend take. Sure, it is still only in 662 theaters and the PTA isn’t a disaster if these numbers hold, but I think it is now obvious that even the huge Oscar-buzz won’t make it a smash – although the expectations had to be limited considering it is black-and-white silent film with relatively unknown foreign actors.
On the positive side, a foreign AND black-and-white AND silent film will have a 20M+ US-total ! My wild guess, that it will end around 30-40M (maybe 50 IF it wins bp), and 100M+ worldwide…and considering it cost around 15M and was a HUGE risk, I think it will be an outstanding accomplishment.
That’s a disastrous number for The Artist. Nevermind the 15 million production budget. How much do you think they spent marketing the film and pimping it for oscars? 20 mill? 50 mill?
I’m pretty sure Hurt Locker never got a wide expansion like this especially not amid massive amounts of Oscar buzz. And if it had it would have easily done 5-10 million dollar weekends. What a joke.
The Weinstein Company shoved this film down people’s throats with the most aggressive and obnoxious Oscar campaign I’ve ever seen and it couldn’t even manage a 3 million dollar weekend playing in 500 plus theaters. Can we now discuss the ways in which every single other contender in this race is better and more accomplished than this sorry piece of euro-trash from the director of France’s equivalent to the Johnny English franchise?
Phantom, loving your assessments, as I agree with them.
“Dragon Tattoo is a solid hit, it will probably end over 120M in the US, and 300M+ worldwide. War Horse is decent, too, 80-90M in the US and 200M+ worldwide, and it ‘only’ cost around 70M. Sure neither are huge moneymakers when we look at the budgets, but both should be still considered at least decent performers”.
I also agree that ‘The Artist’ will do very good business on only a $15 mill budget; as it is poised to make a lot more $$ than anyone could have expected for a silent black and white film (domestic and overseas).
Hugo is going to do better overseas. It opens here about a week before the Oscars. Scorsese does particularly well in Europe. I wouldn’t call it a complete flop yet (it has not opened in Italy, Germany, Nordic countries, Japan, Spain and India to name a few). I think it will eventually break even on DVD/BD, but not on its theater run.
Right now we are looking at a very weird 82M in Box Office. The promotion has been way smaller than most 170M pictures would have. We don’t even know for sure if it cost that much, I have a feeling that the number is a bit exaggerated. It probably needs about 300M (350M tops) to break even. That could happen once it finds its way to people’s homes (television rights also mean big bucks). I think that it will make around 150M theatrically – unless Oscars will give it a new life (it could make 200M even).
And whoever called War Horse a flop? It’s already a success and will make a lot of money when all is said and done. It’s already at 86M and will make around 200M worldwide theatrically. That’s a great number for a film that cost 66M to make.
On related news, Tintin has made almost 350M now, and is now making profit. Spielberg already confirmed that Peter Jackson will direct the sequel (after The Hobbit films) and that he himself will return to the third one if Part II is successful enough.
Thanks, John!
Ben Z.
I liked The Artist – wouldn’t give it bp, though – and I think when all is said and done, the worldwide BO-total will be satisfactory considering the budget.
Having said that, I agree about Harvey shoving this down people’s throats. The film is a charmer and I would love to remember it that way, but now the shameless Oscar-pimping is really clouding my otherwise nice memories about this one. They brought THE DOG to the Golden Globes ? How remarkably textbook-Harvey : “look at this, adorable little dog, people, now could you say no to this precious face ? Now start voting for us, because we have a cute dog !” annoyingly manipulative and remarkably cheesy/cheap shots from Harvey, but then again, 100% expected from him.
Tero, unfortunately no matter how we spin it, Hugo flopped financially :IF it pulls off 300M+ worldwide, then it might have a shot to NOT lose money after DVD and TV sales, but anything less than that will mean it bombed…I am still hoping it will save face on the international circuit and pull off that 300M+.
It’s not a superhero movie. Why expect it to make superhero money?
This post should not be box office gross because its a meaningless number without the budget – which determines how much actual money (profit) a movie actually makes. That’s why the superhero movie budget matters as much as the not-superhero-movie gross.
Sony doesn’t care that Dragon Tattoo made 10 times as much as The Artist. No one in the industry cares. Because everyone knows that 90 minus 90 is still 0, while The Artist needs a mere pittance at this point to make profit.
It’s also not about the quality of the movie. Sasha is trying to discuss commercial success without acknowledging that gross and profit are entirely different beasts. And reframing the issue to be about quality, The Departed’s success at the Academy Awards, semantics about the “superhero movie budget” phrase, or name-dropping a random box office bomb is still not changing the definition of “commercial success” as “profit”, or Dragon Tattoo failing to deliver profit domestically at this point.
That doesn’t mean the movie isn’t good or cannot suceed at the Oscars. But you cannot talk about box office gross as if all Oscar movies were created equal. To proudly point out those 90 million as a success, as the “second highest-grossing Oscar potential” is the incorrectly characterizing the state of the race by trumping up a inconsequential factoid.
Not because it isn’t true but because unlike last year, in this particular case “highest-grossing movie” is a meaningless category.
And since Dragon Tattoo just disappeared out of the top ten this weekend, its chances of getting anywhere near those 120 million without the “Oscar bump” have virtually disappeared.
Julia, If Sony didn’t already see that Dragon Tattoo is going to be profitable, they wouldn’t be going ahead with the sequels. But, as Sasha likes to say, They are, Blanche, they are.
They’ve run the numbers, they’ve done the math. They’re not making movies for charity, they’re in the business of turning a buck. Dragon Tattoo is churning enough that they’re happy.
Try to get over your hangup for basic arithmetic and superhero booty. There’s far more to it than a subtraction problem, and it’s obviously beyond your grasp to even imagine. Leave the accounting to the experts, honey. You don’t get it.
Julia, Dragon Tattoo is already past needing an Oscar bump. It’s nuthin but gravy from here on out. The DVD and Blu are coming in 8 weeks. Try not to lose sleep over Sony’s financial situation. They’ve got a handle on it.
It’s great too look at the BO receipts but you don’t really get an idea of how a film is performing unless you look at the cost to make that film. Couldn’t find numbers on The Descendants, Tinker Tailor, or Hugo. Word of mouth is that Hugo cost over 100 million to make and with a BO of 55 million to date it’s one of the biggest bombs in film history.
The numbers below from BO Mojo are for US release only.
Girl With the Dragon Tattoo BO 91m Cost 90m
War Horse BO 69m Cost 66m
Descendants BO 49m Cost ? Can’t imagine it cost over 49m to make this film.
The Artist BO 10m Cost 15m
Hugo BO 55m Cost pick a number
The Help BO 170m Cost 25m
Midnight in Paris BO 56m Cost 17m
Moneyball BO 75m Cost 50m
Tree of Life BO 13m Cost 32m
Tinker Tailor BO 17m Cost ?
The biggest financial success is without question The Help. But I can’t imagine that Woody Allen isn’t happy with his results. Dragon Tattoo might be doing better if it didn’t have to compete with Sherlock Holmes and Mission Impossible. But I don’t think GWDT is going to break any sound barriers in the box office. Someone said quite a ways back that the Producers of Moneyball believed it would reach around 90m and that didn’t happen. But Moneyball has done quite well so BO isn’t an issue but it wasn’t as embraced as lots of people thought it would be either. The Artist will definitely recoup it’s budget once it goes into wide release. Just think it’s interesting to compare the numbers.
I think one thing that becomes clear is that somewhere there were comments made that the maker of The Help thought they had a sure fire hit on their hands before they even started filming. I might be wrong but I think I remember a comment or two like that here. If they had believed that I would think they might have edged up their budget to fine tune the film so I don’t really think the Producers of The Help really believed they had a BO smash. I think it’s great they’ve had such a good return on their investment simply because it tells us that this sort of film is still something that the public will go see. That’s good for everyone.
Of course, Dragon Tattoo is gonna make profit. It will be copyrighted for another 75 years during which it will be making money in some form or other. But the fact that if you wait long enough nearly every movie is making money, doesn’t change the fact that Dragon Tattoo barely broke even domestically before losing its spot in the top ten. Or that it made only 50 million internationally at this point despite being released in 29 territories, big ones like Russia, Germany and the UK at that.
So right now it’s overall take is 140 million. Theatres kept roughly 25 percent, probably more internationally.. but whatever. That 105 million for Sony.
It had a 90 million budget, but promotion easily added another 20 million onto the money. So it’s still 5 million in the red. Japan will have to make up for that.
By Hollywood standards that’s hardly a gravy train, that’s hardly what Sonny expected when they sunk that much money into the movie. Dragon Tattoo was supposed to be the Twilight for adults, franchise/money-wise. Twilight made nearly ten times its budget. That’s the sort of gravy train Sony wanted, that’s what this supposed to be.
So…
If Sony didn’t already see that Dragon Tattoo is going to be profitable, they wouldn’t be going ahead with the sequels.
They haven’t gone into pre-production. At this point, talk is cheap and stops uncomfortable questions on the on-going talk show tour while promoting investing money (ticket/DVD-wise) into this franchise. Meanwhile they have been handing out questionnaires to audiences of the movie about whether they would like a sequel. (Mind you that was after they announced the sequels.)
Are you seriously suggesting that they bother with that sort of measure if they were one-hundred percent sure about going ahead with those sequels?
I remember back in the old days and when I say the old days I’m thinking sometime in the sixties maybe the seventies that it was said by a lot of the production companies that in order for a film to really be profitable it had to earn back two and half times it’s production costs. I can’t substantiate that because it’s just something I recall. The reason being that so much of the BO gets impacted by future advertising and a lot of the profit doesn’t go back to the production company.
It had a 90 million budget, but promotion easily added another 20 million onto the money.
What happened to that 90+20 mil, I wonder? Did they shred it into confetti?
What everybody seems to forget in these silly equations: Every cent of that $90 million went into the hands of filmmakers — director, stars, producers, writers, crew — they all ALREADY made a Fortune off this movie.
I could live for the rest of my life on what Fincher ALREADY got PAID for Dragon Tattoo.
“In the red” my ass, Julia. Are you the corporation’s grandmother, putting pennies in a jar for a rainy day?
Unless you are a Sony Shareholder, you’re not going have to hand over that missing $5 million you’re worried about.
And in fact, If you are a Sony shareholder, then you’re doing alright for yourself. Nobody’s gonna come break your legs.
The $90 mil and $20 went towards making talented people very very wealthy. They enjoy that part of their job, a lot. The part where they ALL get to KEEP the $90 million.
Really confused by this TGWDT discussion. Julie makes some very good points. It’s not a big hit nor is it a flop. So what’s the problem? Box office “success” is relative to budget(and marketing+print costs) so why all the disagreements?
The thing that stands out most to me looking at that list is just what a big hit The Help was.
I hope Fincher doesn’t get suckered into directing the next two installments.
OK, is there a box office discussion somewhere? – Has anyone noticed that The Artist went wider, way wider, and pulled in less money than the Descendants and was on more screens?
I think The Artist might, just might, no longer be considered the frontrunner. I think it will be seen as something too elitist to vote for Best Pic. Yeah, I know that the Box Office will probably pick up when it can advertise “Nominate for Nine Academy Awards” but the Friday numbers are definitely awful.
I hope Fincher doesn’t get suckered into directing the next two installments.
Yeah I hope he doesn’t get suckered into directing any sequels either. Remember how shitty the sequel to The Godfather was? It’s a shame Coppola did that piece of shit.