Obligatory Captain Obvious Post about The Artist and Best Picture
Of course winning the Producers Guild/Directors Guild means it’s heading towards the Oscar – of course it means it’s probably going to win at least four Oscars but probably more; I am guessing it will win: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay, Best Costumes, Best Original Score. Hugo, I think, will win Cinematography and Art Direction – but if The Artist wins the SAG ensemble tonight, forget it. It will win every award, Slumdog Millionaire style.
It will win the BAFTAs too. Of course it will. I will post my own predictions fairly soon, as well as our final contest.
The only thing to watch out for is this. The last film to win Best Picture in the Musical/Comedy category was Oliver! Back in 1968. Since then, films have won the Best Picture Oscar but not Best Director. I’ll be watching to see if that rule is at last broken this year.
69 Comments
Leave a Comment
Tracker Pages
Recently on AD
Follow Us!
Tags
Gallery
[Deena Jones' wig is daring me to ban her and I just might. One more post...your anagrams are showing doctor.]
I’m still hopeful that Hugo will have a mini-sweep of the techs. That would be something at least.
I think an intervention is needed. LOL
I think they should stop at Best Picture (begrudgingly, I give in on that one) and maybe Best Score (I liked Shore’s for Hugo better though). Honestly, the movie just DOES NOT deserve to sweep all these categories. It is not the most technically impressive film and deserves none of those awards over Hugo and Tree of Life and others nor does the screenplay warrant a win. It’s crazy to think that some voters are just gonna check the box for The Artist in all 10 categories. The Academy is a bunch of fucking Weinstein shills.
There are four weeks to go, Sasha. Don’t count your chickens before they’ve hatched. A lot can change in four weeks, and as the Academy has proven this year, they’ll do whatever they wish, regardless of what the guilds do. It sounds like you’re begrudgingly admitting defeat, and it’s far too early to do that.
I am willing to accept an Artist Best Pic and Best Director win, but the fact this will win Best Score is really disapointing to me. Hugo’s score is so much more moving.
Isn’t this the same post as last year about this time, only with “The Artist” replacing “The King’s Speech?”
I recall a prediction of an epic sweep and how the Oscars don’t matter, aren’t relevant, that this site would no longer exist…
And here we are, a year later… Same old, same old.
The Artist is not going to win Best Screenplay. Woody Allen will.
“The Academy is a bunch of fucking Weinstein shills.”
It is not just the Oscar members. It is PAG, DGA, and even the people who work in the film industry in Australia, and UK. There is a reason why The Artist is so popular. I am not defending Weistein, I am just trying to be rationale. We want to find someone to blame because our favorite films aren’t winning. I am guilty of that too, but please, we should stop blaming Weistein. You think he bought votes at Cannes or you really think he bribed every individual who belong to the guilds? Like I said before, he just produces well received films that appeal to Oscar voters. Who are the shills? Nobody. We should get over it. The Artist is unstoppable at this point, and it is not just here in the U.S.
TKS didn’t win everything though which was good. It even lost a couple head-to-head with TSN. For the record, I don’t think we have another Slumdog sweep coming up just due to the limitations of it being a silent film. I hold out hope that Hugo will actually come away with the most Oscars which would be a nice claim for it to be able to make even if it doesn’t snag the top 2.
Speaking of that…what were the last few movies to take home the most Oscars but not win Best Picture?
The Artist’s success comes from its gimmicky aspect. Its baldness of creating something different, period.
I have faith in the Academy. They will not ignore that the greatest filmmaker of our time and his re-creation of the black and white era in 3D for heavens sake! Mark my words – Marty will overcome.
OK, we get it. You thought TGWTDT was the best movie of the year. But don’t you think there are people who have a different opinion. So what if a black-and-white silent movie wins the Best Picture Oscar? Is that so bad?
I understand Sasha’s frustration, and I feel the same way too, but I am actually glad The Artist is winning though because maybe the filmmakers need to be awarded for being daring and ballsy, and The Artist sort of represents that. These days, nobody would make a silent black and white film. Filmmakers are too caught up in making profit and trying to appeal to everybody. I guess that is why The Artist is winning everywhere.
The best approach is to concede to the fact that this year’s is The Artist’s year, it is Hazanavicous’s year, and the real trick is not minding!!!!
Hugo, I think, will win Cinematography and Art Direction
My thinking is that cinematography is one category where Emmanuel Lubezski (Tree of Life) had an edge. Granted, more AMPAS voters will have watched Hugo, and Robert Richardson has a more distinguished resume. But wouldn’t word of mouth over Lubezski’s amazing work count for something?
Look at the winner of Best Cinematography for the last two years. Inception and Avatar, both were stunning. I think Hugo is going to join the Club.
I think we can file this under, simply, Shit Happens. The Artist is a gimmick movie, and that’s all there is to it. And sometimes the bad guys (Weinstein) win, and we lose. Hazvanaisius will never walk this way again, I assure you. He’s shot his wad of 15 minutes here and now. Silent films had their time, and were replaced by talkies. I’m glad folks are coming around now to what I’ve been saying since October and November; 2011 was simply a suck-ass year for films. Hopefully The Dark Knight Rises and Hunger Games will make a too-big-to-ignore impact on the old fogies at the Academy.
Dane: “The Academy is a bunch of fucking Weinstein shills.”
Remember that quote always, because it’s never been truer than now.
No, Sasha, I refuse to concede best screenplay TO A FREAKING SILENT MOVIE! All the screenplay is are cue cards on the screen. Just, no. I’d even prefer Woody Allen, the mortal enemy of every sci-fi fan getting BOS than the f’n Artist.
Screenwriting is not just about dialogue.
For the last two years all the rules have gone out of the window. You can no longer look back at how Oscar HAS worked previously. We are in weird times so its totally pointless at looking back at how this beast has operated previously! But this I do know, this year will be the least watched broadcast in its history!!! With no box office power houses in the race people will be watching re-runs of Mildred Pierce on another tv channel.
Sasha is right. ‘The Artist’ has this in the bag. Don’t act like it won’t just so you can stay excited. I’m sorry. I wish I were wrong.
Where does this need come from to tell other people to stop rooting for their favorite just because it’s not likely to happen?
As a screenwriter, PaulH’s comment shows a lack of knowledge of what goes into a script. How can you think the screenplay for “The Artist” is just cue cards? Look at the 30 or so years of silent movies and say with a straight face those films, filled complex plots, scenes, characters, actions, stories, emotions, etc. had no script. Of course, since no one spoke a word, I suppose it was just a bunch of people getting together and just filming stuff to see what happens.
Ignorance is bliss, I guess…
Paul H. The Dark Night Rises is not going to be too big to ignore. They will ignore it just like they ignore TDK. Don’t get me wrong, I totally agree with you, but come on now, Harvey is not a bad guy. It is us who makes this Oscar into an Olympic game. Good guys? Bad Guys? It is just film industry, they have their opinion, and we have ours, and we are outnumbered by them.
To be honest with you. I am tired of the bloggers here who keep taking it out on Weistein. He knows how to produce films, he knows how to make films that appeal to the film industry, that’s it. He is no bad guy. THe reason The Dark Night wasn’t nominated was not because of Harvey, it was because the voters simply preferred The Reader that year. I am actually glad that the AMPAS made that decision that year because I personally think The Dark Night was totally overrated. There are not good guys and bad guys when it comes to the Oscars. Yeah, if Harvey was such a bad guy. Gold Mountain would have swept the Oscars already. The Oscar members are not shills, the bloggers are, we are our own worst enemy. We can’t accept the industry’s opinions if they are different from ours, and we bitch and whine, and we find someone to blame. It is time to get over it.
“Screenwriting is not just about dialogue.”
It is to me and the majority of moviegoers out there. Bridesmaids or Margin Call before MIP, and those three before The Artist.
That was then, Zach. It worked, back then, 80 years ago. But silent films had their day and it has long since passed. At least give screenplay to a talkie so it looks on the surface that it’s the 2012 Oscars, not the 1927 ones.
Yes, if this year is anything like the last, let alone anything like the Critics Choice Awards, the awards will be spread around.
The Artist – Picture, Director, Editing, Score. AT LEAST those 4.
Hugo – Art Direction and Cinematography. Really, the latter could go to anyone except Dragon Tattoo, given how well War Horse and Tree of Life did on nominations day. Probably not The Artist here, though. My heart says Hugo for the same reasons Inception beat True Grit last year (worthily, but surprisingly still).
The Help – Lead Actress, Supporting Actress. Unless Meryl.
Descendants – Lead Actor.
Moneyball – Screenplay. They didn’t like Descendants THAT much. On the other hand, Moneyball surpassed expectations, with key sound nominations as well as editing and supporting actor (ok, we all expected that one). I think they won’t feel the need to give Descendants screenplay too, though. But really I’m just thinking about what the BFCA did. If WGA goes to Descendants, it will be hard to predict against it.
Costumes usually go to the rightful, lavish film, so either Anonymous or Jane Eyre.
Sound awards are really unclear to me. Maybe Hugo, but sound mixing may still go to War Horse.
Harry Potter gets makeup and Muppets gets song, and the Academy feels like it’s appeasing mass audiences.
Woody Allen still gets screenplay unless The Artist love is THAT strong, or people get tired of him not showing up for his awards (remember what Nicole Kidman said at the Globes?).
Dragon Tattoo and probably Tree of Life unfortunately go home empty-handed.
I wouldn’t trust “the majority of moviegoers” to have a clue what constitutes good screenwriting.
John W with the win.
At least Nolan has a blueprint to get himself Director and Picture Oscars down the line; make a silent movie, and to double down that he has no competition, make it about the Holocaust. Hey, it worked for Spielberg, right?
My brother cried when ‘Beauty and the Beast’ lost to ‘Silence of the Lambs’ but everyone told him it was going to happen.
Just like Sasha is telling you all now that, ‘The Artist’ is going to win. And he’s right.
@Glen UK.
Using the Award show’s ratings to justify or resent The Artist’s inevitable victory at the Oscars is counter productive and getting old.
“I am done watching the Oscars”
“The ratings will be so low because nobody cares”
This kind of mentality is getting old. AMPAS voters don’t do the show, NBC and AMPAS do. You think the 6000 voters care about the award show ratings? They will continue to vote what what they like in years to come, and they have never cared about the ratings of Oscars. The low ratings of Oscars won’t and don’t effect the way they vote. What do you expect? The members won’t vote for the TV ratings, They vote for what they love. You really think low ratings of Oscars are the result of your favorite films not winning??Time to be realistic. Time to stop blaming. Just enjoy the show already and accept the inevitable outcome of The Artist at Oscars.
Zach, very realistic predictions.
Seems like PaulH is implying that “Schindler’s List” was an undeserving Best Picture winner.
Nice.
The Artist is not going to win Best Screenplay. Woody Allen wil
Right – I thought that too but history supports a strong contender winning screenplay too, almost always.
I am floored though be the sudden hatred towards The Artist! I, for one, agree that Hugo was the best film of 2011. Hands Down.
But The Artist was also a brilliant film. Full of great performances, warmth and exceptional filmmaking.
Just because we’d all prefer Hugo to win it all, should not slight the accomplishments of The Artist.
I am floored by the sudden*
How about this.
We almost had every constellation with a Pic winning the PGA and the DGA:
- a film Oscar-nominated for BP and BD but losing BP (“Saving Private Ryan”)
- a film Oscar-nominated for BP and BD but losing BD (“Chicago”,
“Brokeback Mountain”)
- a film Oscar-nominated for BP but not for BD and therefore losing both (“Apollo 13″)
A film winning PGA and DGA but only being nominated for BD or not even that are I think virtually zero
BUT. How about a film being nominated for both and losing both? That would be a completely new territory. And after last year’s BP winner with the least wins out of 12 nominations a much bigger headline.
My bitterness toward The Artist will subside soon. I actually liked it a lot. But my love for Hugo is great, so naturally I’m upset that it’s not likely to win any of the big awards.
Even so, I don’t want The Artist to pull a Slumdog style sweep at the Oscars.
If Artist wins SAG, then it will likely win the Oscar for script. But Artist can’t win WGA, so chalk up another win to Woody Allen. Plus, Midnight in Paris got an Art Direction nod, so, like Moneyball, they liked that movie more than they had to, so I think he still wins Oscar. He has the Globe and so will have swept the precursors (ignoring BAFTA, which will be key).
Woody has never played the Hollywood game and that has never hurt him before, so I don’t know why he’d lose now.
Million Dollar Baby won Best Picture but lost script to Sideways, and that was dialogue-heavy, emotionally heavy material, but Sideways was the “screenplay” movie. I think that’s how it’ll shape up this year.
I really like the comparison to 1968 – the year of The Battle of Algiers, Stolen Kisses. Fireman’s Ball, Rosmary’s Baby, Faces and, of course, 2001: A Space Odyssey. The race came down to a lightweight musical and a family drama (lion in winter) – sound familiar? – with most of the better films relegated to minor categories or pushed aside, altogether.
I wonder if the simlarity will repeat in the actress category with a tie between a vet and first time lead nom?
PaulH
Lumping yourself with the majority of moviegoers isn’t particularly self-flattering. Then again, considering your prejudice against The Artist purely on the style of its genre and the lack of intelligence you show in denying the existence of its screenplay do you enough damage.
Do you think the actors just turned up on set and made it up as they went along? It had a fucking screenplay. Perhaps you should just avoid films which challenge your conventional opinion of what a movie ought to be like; I don’t think you have the mental capacity to deal with them. Enjoy The Hunger Games though!
@RobertlowercaseA
That was some rant! Take a chill pill it was just my opinion. And of course rating matter. Does not mean the show will get dropped in the future or anything ridiculous like that. Anything put on TV is part of the ratings war. The fact of the matter is the public have nothing to root for this year so there is going to be less interest in the broadcast. Cue rant ………………….
Dujardin could pull a Benigni with Best Actor, but its Woody’s to lose for screenplay (he’s won every time his film was a Pic nominee).
Score & costumes seem likely, and it has an edge for Editing, but will probably max at 6 or 7–formidable but no “Slumdog”
I think it’s worth talking about Slumdog a little more. That was an excellent movie. The competition was weak. It didn’t have to win SAG, but its competition was Doubt (which would have been worthy, but no Best Pic nod, so no chance), Frost/Nixon (no chance), Benjamin Button (okay, sure, but the performances weren’t standouts), and Milk (a large ensemble, but it’s like The Descendants this year: other than Penn/Clooney, who else is in this cast to care about?).
Given the choice between the impoverished, loveable Indian kids in the movie that was clearly winning Best Picture, and young American actors who many probably felt weren’t quite ready for the honor of a SAG Ensemble win (think Social Network), it was easy to see why Slumdog won.
As far as the technical awards went, Slumdog was an excellently made film. The Dark Knight was the only other live-action film that could challenge it, but even so, that movie was not a traditional epic, let alone not a Best Picture nominee.
So it’s not hard to see why Slumdog won 8 Oscars. I don’t think The Artist is Slumdog. Not in a year where you have Hugo, like Inception last year.
Slumdog was not a traditional epic, but it was truly superb in the 8 categories it won Oscars in. It didn’t just sweep because it swept the precursors for the main awards.
Dane Marvin: RAIDERS and AVIATOR were the last two films to take home more trophies than the Pic winner
I’ve not yet understood the correlation between PGA and Oscar since both the noms and winners in the Oscar BP race are voted on by the entire Academy and not just the voters. Why would so many non-producers go along with the PGA voters?
If Paramount handles the expansion of Hugo to more screens (which started this weekend) properly, it could be that right around time the ballots need to be sent back, it will be “the movie” that has the most word-of-mouth and popularity as far as the moviegoing public, for what that’s worth (and depending on who you ask, it could mean quite a lot). Just looking at the head-to-head-to-head with The Artist and The Descendants this weekend at BoxOfficeMojo, The Descendants brought in more money, and is now ahead of Hugo as far as US gross, but The Artist had the best per screen average. Watching how this shapes up over the next couple of weeks could be another indicator as to which way the winds are blowing.
Should add a caveat: This is all based on the estimates from this weekend; more reliable data will be available tomorrow, of course.
Filmatelist- thanks for answer! Looks like its happened less than I thought but funny that a Scorsese film set in the same era (and dealing with filmmaking also) was the last to do it. Would love to see Hugo take home five or six oscars.
@ Butler
The Descendants grossed about twice as much as The Artist and was in over twice as many screens. It makes much more sense that it’d gross more money.
Maybe the DGA/PGA wins mean THE ARTIST is on its way to Oscar Best Picture glory–it’s certainly deserving, since The Tree of Life is apparently not going to have a chance–but before the celebration (or teeth-gnashing) begins, boys and girls can you say BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN?
P.S. Anybody else hear Sasha on NPR this morning discussing the Best Adapted Screenplay nominations? Sounding good, girl.
@Glen UK:
You are talking about taking a chill pill?
Dude. I was responding to your irrational ranting and raving.
It wasn’t just your opinion.
It was your ranting and raving.
You are too keyed up.
If any film doesn’t go your way from AMPAS voters’ perspective, they’re your enemy.
You take a cold shower, please.
“pull a Benigni”
Is that legal down there?
Also, Brokeback Mtn won more trophies than Crash (I think). Inception tied TKS with 4.
Except Inception won all tech awards.
You guys can’t use Brokeback as an example. It only lost b/c of all of the homophobia inherent to the older population voting for Oscars. The Artist doesn’t have anything like that. NOTHING like that. In fact, those old busters are gonna love the shit out of The Artist.
@Mel: hope you’re right and the geezers remember to send their ballots in, with no hanging chads.
You are absolutely right and spot on, Mel.
The Artist is no BM.
BM lost simply because the older voters could not vote for a gay film, period.
The Artist has its “slient film” format and gimmick that prevents any upset from happening.
“steve50″: 2001 was never nominated for BP.
Speaking of Hugo (not really), has anyone read this hilarious article Martin Scorcese wrote for the LA Times discussing his anger towards a snub in this year’s awards season? LOL
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-scorsese-blackie-20120129,0,5054454.story
As much as I loved The Artist, I’d like to see Marty take Best Director.
“The only thing to watch out for is this. The last film to win Best Picture in the Musical/Comedy category was Oliver! Back in 1968. Since then, films have won the Best Picture Oscar but not Best Director. I’ll be watching to see if that rule is at last broken this year.”
Huh, the wording of this is confusing. Did you mean “the last film to win the Golden Globe for Musical and Comedy and then win Best Picture and Director at the Oscars was Oliver!” or “the last Musical or Comedy to win Best Picture and Director was Oliver!”?
If it’s the latter, is not correct, because Annie Hall won back in 1977.
Steve50- CRASH, BROKEBACK, GEISHA & KONG each won 3 that year. No film won more
The Artist is great, but it will not win Original Screenplay. I just hope Woody Allen attends to collect his Oscar, his presence will really lift the show.
Scorsese WILL win Best Director! That will be the pleasant surprise. Everyone wants it. I keep posting it, I’ll post it again. Mark my words!!
If The Artist wins SAG tonight, it’s pretty much done for Pic and Director. Now, a sweeping? no way! it’s just going to be King’s Speech 2.0
I’m just waiting for a surprise
2 huge disappointments in a row? stop playing with my heart, Academy.
“Triple says:
January 29, 2012 at 11:33 am
Just like Sasha is telling you all now that, ‘The Artist’ is going to win. And he’s right.”
She’s a she, not a he. She’s a Sashi!
@Yogsss:
Whether The Artist wins ensemble or not. It is not going to affect it “shoo in” status of Best Picture and Directing at the Oscars.
Not to sound insulting because I am glad the Academy seems to be leaning this way, but if The Artist does win picture, that is the 3rd film in 4 years to be a non US film to take Best Picture (Slumdog was a UK film, ditto for King’s Speech, and The Artist is a French film). Just a interesting piece of Trivia.
…you people seriously believe Tree of Life isn’t taking Cinematography? Good God, haha. First, about 95% of you said TOL and Malick had no chance at their nominations, now you seem to believe that the most blatantly obvious lock in the entire awards ceremony is actually like third in line to win. Really good stuff.