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Oscars 2012 – Best Picture: The Sounds of Silence
17 Feb 2012
“Hello darkness my old friend.” The year started off 9 months ago with The Artist taking the early lead in Cannes. It had the early advantage in Cannes of being one of the few wholly uplifting films to screen there. A tiny tasty bonbon that melts on our tongue in …
(60 Comments)
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The State of the Race: In Gods we Trust (and Giveaway)
16 Feb 2012
[details at the bottom of the post] “They had mocked him through his misery and remorse, mocked him with how hideous a note of cynical derision! Fiendishly laughing, they had insisted on the low squalor, the nauseous ugliness of the nightmare. Now, suddenly, they trumpeted a call to arms. ‘O …
(86 Comments)
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Taking on Shots of the Year
15 Feb 2012
Kris Tapley posted Part 2 of his Top Ten Shots of the Year. It’s a great read, so check it out. My only beef with him is the number one shot of the year but the less I say about that the better. My other beef that, of all of …
(39 Comments)
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Oscars 2012: Original Screenplay
15 Feb 2012
This year, the expected Best Picture winner is again an original screenplay. While adapted screenplays seem to almost always have all of the Best picture heat, in recent years, the original script has taken over. It is one of the weirdest ironies that when the Coen brothers, writers/directors/editors that they …
(98 Comments)
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The State of the Race: Go Back to Five or Go Back to Ten
13 Feb 2012
The trick is not minding. When it was announced that the Academy was just going to toy with its fans by shaking the fuck out of the Best Picture race it was met with equal amounts of excitement and dread. Dread, because what fresh hell is this? And excitement because …
(183 Comments)
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The State of the Race: Out of the Past
12 Feb 2012
“They say the day you die, your name is written on a cloud.” “Who says?” “They.” “Never heard of them.” “Nothing in that one but rain.” “Think we ought to go home?” “Yes.” “Do you want to?” “No.” “Every time I look at the sky, I think of all the …
(27 Comments)
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Oscars 2012: The Adapted Screenplays
9 Feb 2012
Recently, I was lucky enough to be invited on NPR to talk about the adapted screenplay race. It surprised host Rachel Martin that the screenplay race, it turned out, wasn’t so much about the individual screenplays as it was about the Best Picture category. This is probably the hardest thing …
(35 Comments)
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Oscars 2012: Best Director – the Newbie Faces the Master Class
8 Feb 2012
Art and entertainment hover conspicuously like twins at a barn dance: which one do you pick? Can you even tell the difference between them? Do you pick the prettier of the two, or the one that’s more interesting to talk to? As films become more and more about the target …
(140 Comments)
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Oscar Flashback: 1968 – Oliver, a Globes Musical Comedy Wins Big
3 Feb 2012
The last time a film won the Best Picture Musical Comedy at the Golden Globes then went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture and Best Director was in 1968. The film was Oliver! Despite it being 1968, one of the most tumultuous periods of history for the US, …
(58 Comments)
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The State of the Race: The Shakedown as Final Ballots Go Out
1 Feb 2012
It takes a lot to shake the tree of discontent where the Oscars are concerned. Most film critics and media writers feel it’s borderline irresponsible to even care about such a silly contest, let alone write about it. The Oscars are then left to the hardcore fans of the Oscars, …
(180 Comments)
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Oscars 2012 – Best Picture: The Sounds of Silence
I will be very sad if The Tree Of Life is not nominated for Best Picture and Malick for director. Very sad indeed.
There’s no way to mark the Best Picture choices in order, you’re going to have to redo the form.
Same question as Dan- can’t select Best Picture choices in order.
Well…I just predicted a best Picture and director snub for The Tree of Life,a best director nod for A Separation,Kirsten Dunst for actress,Jessica Chastain nominated in supporting for both The Help and TTOL and Philip Seymor Hoffman in supporting too for the Idea of March (the academy clearly libra Jim so you never know)…not that I think that any of this happens, but ignoring the consensus from time to time os fun isn’t it??we’ll find out on tuesday!!
Why no Ides of March on the Best Picture list? I think that has a much stronger chance of getting nominated than most of the ones up there.
Here’s the quandry… do I go with something that seems “safe” and likely (I hate lists being described as “Safe”, but that’s the only word I can think of at the moment) or do I try to take some risks that I suspect will pay off? For instance, do I put Leo and Armie in Actor and Supporting Actor because of their SAG nominations, or should I substitute Leo for Gary Oldman, as my gut seems to be telling me to do? And where does that put Armie (I doubt he’ll get in if Leo doesn’t)?
My phone is playing tricks on me…I meant the academy clearly likes him…and not that I think any of this will happen..sorry!!
Okay — I’ll fix the form….hang on.
Wow… I’ve been trying to predict the Oscar noms for more than a few years and don’t think doing so has ever depressed me this much. Seriously, there are 3-4 definitive / %100 sure choices in each category. Oscars have always been predictable but 2011 takes the cake. Also, sooooo many overrated noms that I simply had to pick because they were givens and not because they even remotely deserved it.
predicted surprises for this year:
- brad pitt snubbed in lead actor (dujardin, clooney, oldman, dicaprio, fassbender (nudity gets you in that last slot, we all know this, now it is the female bloc’s turn to vote for the guy who gets naked for the 5th slot))
- viola davis snubbed in lead actress (streep, williams, swinton, close, mara)
- vote splitting means no chastain, dench, mulligan in supp actress
- 2 or less nominations for the help in all these categories together
- lots of citations for dragon tattoo and harry potter, few for the help and moneyball
you heard it here first!
Oh wait, so there’s no penalty for going all the way to 10 if you’re right up to the point of cutoff? I need to do this over, I just predicted 7 Pic nominees.
I sense that Hugo’s momentum is fading, which is sad. It could be a shocker omission, just like at BAFTA. People like and admire it, they’re just not going to give it first place votes and those are the ones that count. The only positive is if Hugo isn’t a nominee, Midnight in Paris probably has a better shot at pulling the Oscar night upset.
No Animated Picture predictions?
I chose Tree of Life fairly high, I think the movie has some lovers in Hollywood. Also only one nod for Dragon Tattoo (against what the pundits say about “momentum”) and a screenplay nod for Separation. A writer seems like a person who knows how to read (although, if I’m not mistaken, that would be the first nomination for a foreign film since Pan’s Labyrinth), and the screenplay is so much more spectacular (and more interesting) than that of 50/50 and Young Adult, this seems possible… kinda.
The actor’s branch does not allow an actor to be nominated for more than 1 picture in each catagory a rule i think should be changed . I need to see 2 films on Friday. What is the deadline?
Out on a limb (though as usual, I’ll be wrong):
*7 Best Picture noms. Artist/Descendants/Hugo/Midnight in Paris/The Help/Dragon Tattoo/Moneyball. (though I’d be elated for Tree of Life or Drive to sneak in, War Horse is the most likely to bump Moneyball)
*Bejo in her rightful place, Best Actress, with Streep, Davis, Williams, and Mara (Swinton and Close stuck on the outside, the films coming in too late in the game)
*the academy continues the love it has shown for Gosling, credits him for a 3/3 year with incredible range, and he makes the cut for Drive (w/ Dujardin, Pitt, Clooney, and Fassbender). Tough luck for DiCaprio and Oldman.
*Bejo in lead allows Mulligan (Shame) or Woodley to sneak into supporting
*War Horse and Tree of Life shut out of Picture/Director, settle for cinematography noms for Kaminski and Lubezki
*No dramas in original screenplay (Midnight in Paris. The Artist. Bridesmaids. 50/50. Win Win.)
Dan Conley, I think you are really overreacting to the Bafta snub…. Movies like Inglorious Basterds weren’t nominated for Best Picture at the Bafta’s either but were still locks. What do you mean losing momentum? That is literally the only snub it has gotten in months. Also the Bafta’a only nominated 5 films and since I doubt that Tinker Tailer and Kevin will be nominated that leaves plenty of room for Hugo.
Sasha and Ryan, I need to correct my predictions. Can I re submit? Or just tell you the thing needs fixed? It’s just one error.
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. Midnight in Paris
5. The Help
6. Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
7. Moneyball
8. War Horse
9. Bridesmaids
10. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Best Director
Michel Hazanacivious
Martin Scorcese
Alexander Payne
Woody Allen
Asghar Farhadi(going out on a limb and predicting a big suprise)
Best Actor
George Clooney
Brad Pitt
Jean Dujardin
Michael Fassbender
Leonardo Dicaprio
Best Actress
Meryl Streep
Viola Davis
Michelle Williams
Tilda Swinton
Rooney Mara
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks
Christopher Plummer
Jonah Hill
Kenneth Branagh
Nick Nolte
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer
Jessica Chastain
Berninice Bejo
Mellisa Mccarthy
Janett Mcteer
Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Bridesmaids
Best Adapted Screenplay
Hugo
The Help
Moneyball
The Descendants
Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Editing
Hugo
The Descendants
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
The Artist
Best Cinematography
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
Tree of Life
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Score (not in the contest but why not?
War Horse
Hugo
The Artist
Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
I have been pretty generous towards TGWTDT in my predictions. I somehow feel this will score more nominations than people are everyone’s anticipating.
You make sound points Craig Z, it’s true that Hugo is hitting all the guilds and should be in line for a nomination. But you’d think that a movie high on the Best Picture list would be a sure thing in the Screenplay category (it’s not) and would be in contention for at least one acting nomination. (There’s very little chatter about Ben Kingsley in a crowded Supp. Actor field.) In fact, I can’t remember the last Scorsese movie to receive so little love in the acting categories. (Kundun? Bringing Out the Dead?) If the actors are looking elsewhere to fill out their cards, they will consider those films for Best Pic too.
Having said that, Midnight in Paris is receiving surprisingly little acting category buzz for an acclaimed Woody Allen film … usually there’s a strong supporting actress candidate in the running, at least. I’m predicting a Cotillard nomination just because I find it hard to believe that the actors would shut out Paris, given its ensemble SAG nomination.
Hugo will probably be nominated for Screenplay. It was nominated for the WGA. I’m not suprised at all about the Acting Nominations thing. It’s two leads are children and Cohen is broad comedy so it’s only horse was Kingsley. Not all movies have to get their love the same way(acting nods) to be contenders
Hugo has one MAJOR thing going for it…. Martin Scorcese. He is the only threat to Hazanavicius. That’s all it needs. Also nominations at the three most important technical catagories are assured, Editing, Score and Cinematography. It may win one or two also. You are looking way too far into the BAFTA’s.
Everyone predicting The Tree of Life for Best Picture … I love that movie dearly, but it’s just not happening. It didn’t make any money, one of the stars trashed it publicly, it didn’t win any major critics awards and it’s missed one Guild after another. I’m holding out hope for Malick in the Director category and it should be up for several techs, but that’s it. I doubt that it would even make an Oscar field of 10 nominees.
WGA isn’t a great predictor of the writing categories because of all the ineligible films.
I guess my point isn’t so much that Hugo is out, I’m picking it in a list of seven, I just think it’s vulnerable and might be closer to an outright snub than winning at this point. I never would have expected this after the NBOR win.
Movies don’t need acting noms to make the list, but with rare exceptions, they do need acting nominations to be serious contenders on Oscar night. If Hugo isn’t in the mix for an ultimate win, I doubt that Marty is going to split the vote and take home a second Oscar. If you love The Artist, then you’re probably voting for Hazanacivious for Director.
No major contenders were inneligable for Adapted Screenplay this year so the WGA was fine.
Hugo is in either 2nd or 3rd place in my opinion. No chance in hell it’s missing out. Even with 5 nominees. I think one would be very hard pressed to find 5 other films that are doing worse than Hugo right now.
To recap….
The Descendants maybe but it missed Director at the Baftas and ACE
Midnight in Paris was almost completely shut out of the Bafta’s and will also probably not be nominated for any acting catagory
The Help missed the DGA and won’t be nominated for Director
Ditto Moneyball
Girl With the Dragon Tattoo missed completely at BAFTA, no picure at Globes or BFCA
War Horse…….enough said
Also won Director at the Globes and the only time I can remember the film that won that that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture was Diving Bell and the Butterfly but that was a foriegn language film so it had obvious dissadvantages.(which Hugo doesn’t)
Now I’m aware it’s probably gonna be Havanavicious. Marty most likly has no chance(only possible upset I think though) but neither doesn’t anybody else so I don’t really see how this makes Hugo vulnerable(without saying everything else is vulnerable too)
This should be interesting. I fluctuate hourly over the number of BP noms, so of course I don’t remember if I picked 6 or 7 just now – or which 6 or 7. I would be shocked if there are 10 and hysterical with laughter if there were only 4.
Agreeing with the posts that Scorsese is Hazanacivius only competition. I think we’re going to have a split – feels like Jan 2001, to me.
Steve, their can’t be only 4. There has to be at least five but no more than 10
Ah. Well, I wasn’t expecting much laughter that morning, anyway.
One more thing I’m curious about Dan. What reason do you have to believe that Hugo won’t be the kind of film to get number 1 votes?
Got plenty from the critics. The PGA has a similar voting system and it got in there. Directed by a modern master that I’m sure has a HUGE fanbase among his piers, about classic film which is probably a topic many are passionate about etc……
Steve, while I think predicting splits is hazardous(Ebert is really the only high profile case I know of of someone getting it right) I think if you are gonna compare it to a split year I would compare it to 2002. Unknown director of not too serious movie vs legendary director doing subject close to heart(now The Pianist and Hugo have really nothing in common but still….) but Marty already has an Oscar(though he should have about 3 or 4 so I still consider him due) so I guess there isn’t much of a point in comparing but oh well it passes the time.
True, I was thinking more along the lines that The Artist is the entertainment entry (Gladiator) and Hugo the more serious, complex entry (Traffic). But that same comparison hold true for Chicago and The Pianist – directors of entertaining fare start out with one strike against them.
Didn’t get to finish (or spellcheck)
In a close race, like this appears to be, the more entertaining entry takes BP ’cause everyone enjoyed it, but the director of the serious fare takes BD because just enough votes went their way. Being an unknown up against a legend, especially one who has never been awarded (Polanski), doesn’t help, either.
Carey Mulligan and Jessica Chastain could both very well suffer from split voting . . . unless Chastain has such power within the actors’ branch that at least one of her great performances will get pushed into the final five.
Personally, I think the performance for which she should be nominated was her loving wife and mother in “Take Shelter”. She and Michael Shannon both deserve to be nominated for this film. Brilliant acting by both of them.
I nominated for Best Picture
Tree of Life
The Artist
War Horse
The Help
Harry Potter 7.2
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball or Midnight in Paris
I miss doing all the categories for the official Oscar poll. Though next Tuesday seems really soon when we haven’t heard from all the guilds.
BEST PICTURE — FIRST CHOICE The Artist
BEST PICTURE — SECOND CHOICE Hugo
BEST PICTURE — THIRD CHOICE The Descendants
BEST PICTURE — FOURTH CHOICE Midnight in Paris
BEST PICTURE — FIFTH CHOICE The Help
BEST PICTURE — SIXTH CHOICE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
BEST PICTURE — SEVENTH CHOICE Moneyball
BEST PICTURE — EIGHTH CHOICE War Horse
BEST PICTURE — NINTH CHOICE Tree of Life
BEST PICTURE — TENTH CHOICE Bridesmaids
Best Director – CHOOSE ONE Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Best Director – CHOOSE ONE Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Director – CHOOSE ONE Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Best Director – CHOOSE ONE Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Best Director – CHOOSE ONE Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Michael Fassbender, Shame
Best Actor (CHOOSE ONE Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Viola Davis, The Help
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
Best Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Best Supporting Actor Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actor Albert Brooks, Drive
Best Supporting Actor Brad Pitt, Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actor Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Best Supporting Actor Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Octavia Spencer, The Help
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Jessica Chastain, The Help
Supporting Actress (CHOOSE ONE) Carey Mulligan, Shame
Screenplay – Original – CHOOSE ONE Midnight in Paris
Screenplay – Original – CHOOSE ONE The Artist
Screenplay – Original – CHOOSE ONE Bridesmaids
Screenplay – Original – CHOOSE ONE 50/50
Screenplay – Original – CHOOSE ONE Young Adult
Screenplay – Adapted – CHOOSE ONE Moneyball
Screenplay – Adapted – CHOOSE ONE The Descendants
Screenplay – Adapted – CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Screenplay – Adapted – CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Screenplay – Adapted – CHOOSE ONE The Help
Editing – CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Editing – CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Editing – CHOOSE ONE Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Editing – CHOOSE ONE The Artist
Editing – CHOOSE ONE War Horse
Cinematography — CHOOSE ONE Tree of Life
Cinematography — CHOOSE ONE War Horse
Cinematography — CHOOSE ONE Hugo
Cinematography — CHOOSE ONE Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Cinematography — CHOOSE ONE The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I have yet to see Shame so I cant really speak on Fasbenders performance, and i dont just wanna join the crowd and say ‘oh yeah, he should be nominated’ although everything he’s appeared in he’s always done a good job and i like him a lot as an actor. But if I had my way and it wont happen cuz it never does, i would nominate the following in the Best Actor category… Gosling(Drive) Dicaprio(J.Edgar) Michael Shannon(Take Shelter) Gary Oldman(TTSS) and I guess Pitt(Moneyball) I just want to add i really have a hatred for Clooney. Im in total agreement with South Park, I think he’s kind of a soap boxey actor who whenever given the chance he will talk about darfur or wherever else. No offense to anyone in darfur
Who cares about the BAFTAS?
Also, Ms Stone has made yet another mistake – Midnight in Paris should be in 3rd spot on the Best Picture form.
“Also, Ms Stone has made yet another mistake – Midnight in Paris should be in 3rd spot on the Best Picture form.”
What the fuck does that matter? You can put them in what ever order YOU want to. I think you just want to find something to bitch about.
Colin Firth in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could be this year’s William Hurt (A History of Violence).
Would you like this nominations scenario?
Best Picture: The Ides of March, George Clooney, producer
Best Director: George Clooney, The Ides of March
Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney, The Descendants
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: George Clooney, The Ides of March
Best Adapted Screenplay: George Clooney, The Ides of March
I actually have enjoyed reading a lot of the posters “surprise” predictions since I think they may be right on the money. I think Malick has a lot of love in Hollywood and I expect TREE OF LIFE to be recognized in Picture, Director and Screenplay (as much as I disliked the film, I can easily see him winning Director or Screenplay). I think that the several posters who have commented on A SEPARATION sneaking in with a Best Director/Screenplay nomination could also be right on the money.
There are some predicted nominees I just have never been sold on. Clooney/Pitt/Dujardin/Fassbender seem to be locks in my head (the first three without question) but I have never been sold on Dicaprio for J.EDGAR, the film just doesn’t have the love. I am already predicting that Dicaprio will win NEXT year in Supporting for DJANGO UNCHAINED (Tarantino is brilliant with villains, Dicaprio playing against type, could/should be brilliant) so I can see the veteran (and hard to believe never nominated) Gary Oldman getting his due.
The other “surprise” nomination I think will be in Supporting Actor with Ben Kingsley getting the nomination over either Branagh or Jonah Hill. I think that Brooks and Plummer are locks. Anyone that has seen WARRIOR should know that Nolte SHOULD be a lock (I just hope enough people will see that terrific film). I thought Jonah Hill was wonderful in MONEYBALL and seems to have the support to get a nomination. That leaves Branagh as the odd man out in my opinion. Kingsley – in my opinion – is at the heart of HUGO and delivers a wonderful performance. I do think the film has strong support in Hollywood and they would want to recognize it in at least one of the acting categories.
So we will see.
” I think that the several posters who have commented on A SEPARATION sneaking in with a Best Director/Screenplay nomination could also be right on the money.”
That’s just been me over and over lol
THESE FILMS WILL BE NOMINATED!!!!!!!!!!!!
TRUST ME!!!!!!!
1.THE ARTIST
2.THE DECSENDENTS
3.HUGO
4.MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
5.DRIVE
6.MONEYBALL
7.THE HELP
8.THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO/TREE OF LIFE
*WAR HORSE WOULD AND SHOULD NOT MAKE IT.
*LOUD AND CLOSE DEFFINATLY SHOULD NOT.
*BRIDESMATES IS NOT AN OSCAR MOVIE.
*IF DRIVE DOESN’T MAKE IT, I WONT WATCH THE OSCARS TILL 2013
WHY ARE YOU GUYS PUTTING 10 CHOICES IF THERE WILL ONLY BE 8 NOMINATIONS THIS YEAR?
Anthony, 1. You apparently don’t understand this contest and 2. Nobody knows how many nominees there is going to be
Surprise double nomination for Brad Pitt perhaps? There is something in my gut saying it could happen.
Other then that, War Horse will be shut out of the best picture line up and spielberg won’t make it to director. But the film will make it into some of the tech categories.
BEST PICTURE
THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN
THE ARTIST
THE DESCENDANTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
THE HELP
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
MONEYBALL
MY WEEK WITH MARILYN
A SEPARATION
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
BEST ACTOR
GEORGE CLOONEY (THE DESCENDANTS)
LEONARDO DICAPRIO (J. EDGAR)
JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
GARY OLDMAN (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
BRAD PITT (MONEYBALL)
BEST ACTRESS
VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
KIRSTEN DUNST (MELANCHOLIA)
MERYL STREEP (THE IRON LADY)
TILDA SWINTON (WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
KENNETH BRANAGH (MY WEEK WITH MARILYN)
COLIN FIRTH (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
JONAH HILL (MONEYBALL)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
ALAN RICKMAN (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BERENICE BEJO (THE ARTIST)
KATHY BURKE (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
JESSICA CHASTAIN (THE HELP)
MELISSA MCCARTHY (BRIDESMAIDS)
OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
BEST DIRECTOR
TOMAS ALFREDSON (TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY)
MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
ALEXANDER PAYNE (THE DESCENDANTS)
MARTIN SCORSESE (HUGO)
DAVID YATES (HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE ARTIST
BRIDESMAIDS
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
THE TREE OF LIFE
YOUNG ADULT
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE DESCENDANTS
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
THE HELP
MONEYBALL
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
BEST FILM EDITING
THE ARTIST
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2
HUGO
TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY
The reason I have not mentioned Michael Fassbender for Best Actor ‘cos I feel the nudity will put off the Academy voters (conservative types).
Where is The Guard?
“…for Best Picture you must predict in order of how you think they will be nominated.”
Does this mean the order the nominees will be announced? I know the Acadamy said up yours to alphabetizing their announcements, so I’m kind of confused.
I don’t think The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo has any shot at getting in the best picture category. I love the film, it’s one of my favorites of last year, I think it’s great, but there’s no chance it’s getting in.
Likewise The Tree of Life is an undeniable masterpiece, but there’s no way that’s getting in there for anything other than Cinematography and maybe (maybe) editing and visual effects.
The Academy loves mediocrity, so The Help, Albert Nobbs, My Week With Marylin, et al will fill in the categories that already have front-runners who are not in those films. Yes, it was incredibly when a genuinely great movie (that would normally only get noticed by cinema-obsessed types like my self, which it did on its initial release) breaks through all the shit and wins Best Picture, but it’s not a common occurrence, and I just don’t see art movies and Billy Crystal mixing this year.
I played it safe but I went with Corey Stoll in Supporting Actor in lieu of Nolte or Viggo or Von Sydow. That category seems a bit thin to me and it’s probably safe to assume that most people voting will have seen Midnight in Paris (as opposed to Warrior or A Dangerous Method or Extremely Close). I also went with A Separation and Beginners in Original screenplay since they’re prizewinners coming into the home stretch. If any voters were playing catch up on their screeners before voting ended you’d have to assume they’d check out those films over things like Win Win, Young Adult and the like.
I’d love to see Michael Shannon, John Hawkes and the real Bridesmaids MVP Rose Byrne show up on nominations morning but I’m not holding my breath.
Complete Oscar Nominee Predictions
(not necessarily what I WANT to win, but my hunches about how the academy branches will vote)
FILM – The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Tree of Life (NGNG: War Horse)
ANIMATED FEATURE – The Adventures of TinTin, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Bill Cunningham New York, Hell and Back Again, Paradise Lost 3, Pina, Project Nim
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE – Footnote, In Darkness, Pina, A Separation, Warriors of the Rainbow
DIRECTOR – The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life (ALT: Midnight in Paris)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – The Artist, Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, Win Win, Young Adult (NGNG: Margin Call)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – The Descendants, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball (NGNG: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
EDITING – The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Midnight in Paris (NGNG: Beginners)
ACTOR – The Artist: Jean Dujardin, The Descendants: George Clooney, Moneyball: Brad Pitt, Take Shelter: Michael Shannon, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy: Gary Oldman (NGNG: J. Edgar: Leonardo DiCaprio)
ACTRESS – Albert Nobbs: Glenn Close, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo: Rooney Mara, The Help: Viola Davis, The Iron Lady: Meryl Streep, My Week With Marilyn: Michelle Williams (NGNG: Martha Marcy May Marlene: Elizabeth Olsen)
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Beginners: Christopher Plummer, Drive: Albert Brooks, Moneyball: Jonah HillMy Week With Marilyn: Kenneth Branagh, Warrior: Nick Nolte (NGNG: The Tree of Life: Brad Pitt)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – The Artist: Berenice Bejo, Bridesmaids: Melissa McCarthy, The Descendants: Shailene Woodley, The Help: Octavia Spencer, The Tree of Life: Jessica Chastain (ALT: Albert Nobbs: Janet McTeer)
ART DIRECTION – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter, The Help, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (ALT: The Artist)
CINEMATOGRAPHY – The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse (ALT: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
COSTUME DESIGN – The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, Hugo (ALT: Jane Eyre)
MAKEUP – Albert Nobbs, Gainsbourg, The Iron Lady (ALT: Harry Potter)
VISUAL EFFECTS – Captain America, Harry Potter, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers 3 (ALT: Pirates of the Caribbean)
SOUND MIXING – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Super 8, Transformers 3, War Horse (ALT: Drive)
SOUND EFFECTS – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Super 8, Transformers 3, War Horse (ALT: Mission Impossible)
ORIGNAL SCORE – The Artist, Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life (ALT: War Horse)
ORIGNAL SONG – Albert Nobbs: “Lay Your Head Down,” Gnomeo & Juliet: “Hello Hello,” The Muppets: “Life’s a Happy Song,” The Muppets: “Man or Muppet,” W.E.: “Masterpiece” (ALT: The Muppets: “Pictures in My Head,” NGNG: Moneyball: “The Show”)
Hi everybody, I used to comment for this site and I still love it dearly, so I wanted my official predictions listed somewhere! Here they are:
BEST PICTURE
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Descendants
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
8. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
———-
9. Drive
10. The Tree of Life
I think they’ll have 8 nominees here with GWTDT showing strong with the guilds towards the end of the season and, I believe, the British contingent at AMPAS being enough to get TTSS the 250 first place ballots it might need … If they extend beyond 8 nominees my guess is that a movie that may have passionate fans, such as Drive or Tree of Life gets in. I am very doubtful that War Horse can break in here.
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
The Artist, d. Michel Hazanivicius
The Descendants, d. Alexander Payne
The Help, d. Tate Taylor
Hugo, d. Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris, d. Woody Allen
Tate Taylor is my out on a limb prediction. Fincher may get in, he seems to have been embraced by the establishment now and Malick is probably the wisest bet (over Taylor) given the penchant for auteurs in this category at times.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close in ‘Albert Nobbs’
Viola Davis in ‘The Help’
Meryl Streep in ‘The Iron Lady’
Tilda Swinton in ‘We Need to Talk About Kevin’
Michelle Williams in ‘My Week With Marilyn’
I’ve comfortable with this line-up.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in ‘The Descendants’
Leonardo DiCaprio in ‘J. Edgar’
Jean Dujardin in ‘The Artist’
Gary Oldman in ‘Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy’
Brad Pitt in ‘Moneyball’
Three locks here, DiCaprio seems solid as it’s the type of movie AMPAS goes for and he’s all the prerequisite nominees. Then I’m going out on a limb with Oldman. Fassbender’s movie works against him I think; Shannon can’t pull this off twice (can he?); Bechir was a SAG wildcard; Gosling is unfortunately diluting his own vote.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Berenice Bejo in ‘The Artist’
Jessica Chastain in ‘The Help’
Melissa McCarthy in ‘Bridesmaids’
Janet McTeer in ‘Albert Nobbs’
Octavia Spencer in ‘The Help’
I’m confident about this, four Globe and SAG nominees in, and then McCarthy who is just so much fun over Woodley who I think is outshone by Clooney.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh in ‘My Week with Marilyn’
Albert Brooks in ‘Drive’
Jonah Hill in ‘Moneyball’
Christopher Plummer in ‘Beginners’
Corey Stoll in ‘Midnight in Paris’
Plummer and Branagh are in. Brooks, SAG aside, looks strong … then it’s a muddle. Hammer could be welcomed to the big time with a nom; Nolte is admired as a veteran; wildcards abound here with Brad Pitt or Corey Stoll being potential surprise nominees. I’m being ludicrous I know, but I’m putting Stoll in because he’s so brilliant, the movie has fans right, and Woody often grabs noms for his actors. I’ll get burned with this but what the hell right?
BEST SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
BEST SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
50/50
The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Help
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Tree of Life
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
My Week with Marilyn
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKE UP
The Artist
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
The Iron Lady
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC, ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tin Tin
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC, ORIGINAL SONG
Albert Nobbs
Captain America: The First Avenger
The Help
The Muppets
The Muppets
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Adventures of Tin Tin
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Real Steel
Super 8
War Horse
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Hugo
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
oops … I had picked Drive and The Tree of Life, but neither are eligible for original score … here’s an update for this category:
ORIGINAL SCORE – The Adventures of TinTin, The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, War Horse (ALT: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy / NGNG: Hanna)
My final predictions on 21 of the 24 categories. I agree with Mrs. Sasha Stone about most of the possibilities, but I put some wild cards (5 nominations for “Tree of Life” despite the fact that I will geto probgably only Cinematography), specially Adapted Screenplay for “We Need To Talk About Kevin”:
Meus palpites para as indicações ao Oscar 2012:
1 –Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Tree of Life
Moneyball
2- Directing
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Michel Hanazavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne,The Descendants
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Terrence Malick – Tree of Life
3 – Actress
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis – The Help
Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close Albert Nobbs
4- Actor
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
George Clooney – The Descendants
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy
5- Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
6- Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Nick Nolte, Warrior
7 – Foreign Film
A Separation (Iran)
In Darkness (Poland)
Pina (Germany)
Bullhead (Belgium)
Monsieur Lahzar (Canada)
8 – Animated Picture
Rango
The Adventures of Tintin
Rio
Puss in Boots
Cars 2
Kung Fu Panda 2
9 – Documentary
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated
Project Nim
10 – Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Terrence Malick – Tree of Life
JC Chandor – Margin Call
11 – Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash,The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
Tate Taylor, The Help
Lynne Ramsay, Rory Kinnear – We Need To Talk About Kevin
12 – Cinematography
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Emmanuel Lubezki, Tree of Life
Bob Richardson, Hugo
Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse
13 – Editing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
14 – Art Direction
Hugo
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Midnight in Paris
15 – Costume Design
The Artist
The Help
Midnight in Paris
Hugo
Jane Eyre
16 – Original Score
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
John Williams, War Horse
Howard Shore, Hugo
Thomas Newman, The Help
17 – Song
The Living Proof, Mary J Blige, The Help
Pictures in My Head, Muppets
Life’s a Happy Song, Muppets
Lay Your Head Down, Albert Nobbs
Hello Hello, Elton John Gnomeo and Juliet
18 – Make Up
The Artist
Gainsbourg
The Iron Lady
19 – Sound Mixing
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers – Dark Moon
Pirates – On Stranger Tides
Drive
20 –Sound Editing
Drive
Transformers – Dark Moon
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Super 8
21 – Special Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Tree of Life
Super 8