The actors will chime in with their favorites this Sunday when the Screen Actors Guild awards unfurl. We can expect little surprises, I’m guessing, as the buzz for some contenders simply overwhelms the competition. It feels like a natural progression towards Oscar, this. And much will be decided. For instance, Oscar ballots are still outstanding. Who wins the DGA (cough cough Hazanavicius) and who wins the SAG will determine, very likely, how those contender fare on ballots. When the winners take to the stage did it feel well earned? Was it a beautiful moment? Or was it a tiresome slog? There are speeches and then there are speeches. Sometimes it really doesn’t matter. No one gave worse speeches than Jennifer Connelly who won for A Beautiful Mind, but that hardly mattered.
ENTER OUR CONTEST TO PREDICT THE SAG WINNERS!
But let’s go through them, shall we? We have our expected winners, our potential surprises and our upsets. Make sure to check Gold Derby, where many more pundits are making predictions.
Best Actor
DEMIÁN BICHIR / Carlos Galindo – “A BETTER LIFE” (Summit Entertainment)
GEORGE CLOONEY / Matt King – “THE DESCENDANTS” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / J. Edgar Hoover – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JEAN DUJARDIN / George – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
BRAD PITT / Billy Beane – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)
What you’re looking for in these categories, with such an enormous majority vote that the SAG offers up, some 100,000 votes, is how the house might split. When it was The King’s Speech vs. Social Network it wasn’t actually those two films. It was one of them versus everything else. It was probably The King’s Speech versus everything else. Those not inclined to vote for the frontrunner split up in what they will vote for, and it’s not always one film or one contender. In this case, George Clooney is the frontrunner. So you have to wonder who wouldn’t vote for him and why not. Maybe they didn’t like The Descendants. Maybe they like another actor better. Maybe they think Clooney is already too successful and doesn’t need the shot in the arm. Either way, I’ll bet that the two strongest pull-aways are Pitt, who is marvelous in Moneyball and has long since been overlooked, and Demian Bichir, whose win would bring down the house. But you can’t really go against Clooney here.
Sasha’s picks:
Will win: George Clooney, The Descendants
Could win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Shocker: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Ryan’s pick:
Brad Pitt
Living in Cinema‘s Craig Kennedy picks:
Jean Dujardin
Best Actress
Best Actress
GLENN CLOSE / Albert Nobbs – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
VIOLA DAVIS / Aibileen Clark – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / Margaret Thatcher – “THE IRON LADY” (The Weinstein Company)
TILDA SWINTON / Eva – “WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Marilyn Monroe – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)
Sasha’s Picks:
Will win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Could win: Viola Davis, The Help
Shocker: Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Ryan’s picks:
Viola Davis, Meryl Streep
tie! make it happen, vote-tampering mole
Craig’s pick:
Michelle Williams
Despite the growing buzz for Viola Davis, despite how much some of us personally think she should win, and want her to win, the gravitational pull towards Streep, helped along by the formidable Weinstein company and their kick-ass PR team, is simply too strong. Streep is everywhere. Davis is not. I took a walk yesterday and on the ground a xeroxed copy of Streep on the cover of Reader’s Digest. The New York Times’ Carpetbagger had a story on “Visit the Iron Lady’s hometown.” It is non-stop PR. Streep has been on 60 Minutes, every news show imaginable and she just won the Globe. Moreover, she performs in the Iron Lady, as Margaret Thatcher, in the kind of performance all actors dream about getting and delivering, yet very few get that opportunity. So we’ll celebrate Streep as she wins her second lead Oscar. The last time she won was way back in the 1980s. This will be her 3rd Oscar. By contrast, Hilary Swank has two lead Oscars, and so does Jodie Foster, etc.
What Davis has over Streep, of course, is that she stars in a Best Picture contender that is an ensemble work through and through. Nominated for Best Picture. Contrast that with The Iron Lady, which is about Streep and nothing more. It isn’t even really about Margaret Thatcher so much as it is about Streep, one of the finest actors ever. A Kennedy Center honor under her belt, it really doesn’t seem like anyone else can win, whether the Iron Lady is well liked enough or not. That probably won’t matter. Voters will feel that giving Octavia Spencer the win is how they’ll honor The Help. Which brings us to the supporting categories.
Best Supporting Actor
KENNETH BRANAGH / Sir Laurence Olivier – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)
ARMIE HAMMER / Clyde Tolson – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JONAH HILL / Peter Brand – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)
NICK NOLTE / Paddy Conlon – “WARRIOR” (Lionsgate)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER / Hal – “BEGINNERS” (Focus Features)
If voters feel the need to honor Moneyball for something, Hill could pull in a surprise win here. But no one but Plummer is really expected to take it. Plummer has been mostly ignored throughout his career, awards wise, and he’s been acting for decades. Moreover, his performance in Beginners is one of the best of the year, male or female, lead or supporting.
Sasha’s Picks:
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Might Win: Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Shocker: Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Ryan’s pick:
Christopher Plummer
Craig’s pick:
Christopher Plumner
Best Supporting Actress
BÉRÉNICE BEJO / Peppy – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Celia Foote – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MELISSA McCARTHY / Megan – “BRIDESMAIDS” (Universal Pictures)
JANET McTEER / Hubert Page – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Minny Jackson – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
We will be testing the true power of The Artist on Sunday night and one of the big surprises could be Bejo, especially if they plan to give ensemble to The Help. But watch out for Melissa McCarthy, being that many of these voters are TV actors and they know her very well for that. But Spencer will likely win, especially if voters plan on awarding Streep over Davis.
Sasha’s Picks:
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Might Win: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Shocker: Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Ryan’s pick:
Octavia Spenser
Craig’s pick:
Octavia Spender
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
THE ARTIST (The Weinstein Company)
BÉRÉNICE BEJO / Peppy
JAMES CROMWELL / Clifton
JEAN DUJARDIN / George
JOHN GOODMAN / Al Zimmer
PENELOPE ANN MILLER / Doris
BRIDESMAIDS (Universal Pictures)
ROSE BYRNE / Helen
JILL CLAYBURGH / Annie’s Mom
ELLIE KEMPER / Becca
MATT LUCAS / Gil
MELISSA McCARTHY / Megan
WENDI McLENDON-COVEY / Rita
CHRIS O’DOWD / Rhodes
MAYA RUDOLPH / Lillian
KRISTEN WIIG / Annie
THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
BEAU BRIDGES / Cousin Hugh
GEORGE CLOONEY / Matt King
ROBERT FORSTER / Scott Thorson
JUDY GREER / Julie Speer
MATTHEW LILLARD / Brian Speer
SHAILENE WOODLEY / Alexandra King
THE HELP (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Celia Foote
VIOLA DAVIS / Aibileen Clark
BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD / Hilly Holbrook
ALLISON JANNEY / Charlotte Phelan
CHRIS LOWELL / Stuart Whitworth
AHNA O’REILLY / Elizabeth Leefolt
SISSY SPACEK / Missus Walters
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Minny Jackson
MARY STEENBURGEN / Elaine Stein
EMMA STONE / Skeeter Phelan
CICELY TYSON / Constantine Jefferson
MIKE VOGEL / Johnny Foote
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Pictures Classics)
KATHY BATES / Gertrude Stein
ADRIEN BRODY / Salvador Dali
CARLA BRUNI / Museum Guide
MARION COTILLARD / Adriana
RACHEL McADAMS / Inez
MICHAEL SHEEN / Paul
OWEN WILSON / Gil
Ensemble is probably the hardest category to call. Bridesmaids is poised to upset The Help, as is The Artist. If The Artist wins, you’re going to see a Slumdog-like sweep of the Oscars. If The Help wins, The Artist will probably still win Best Picture but it won’t be as strong as Slumdog, which easily took the ensemble award.
The Descendants is the dark horse here.
Sasha’s Picks:
Will Win: The Help
Might Win: The Artist
Shocker: Bridesmaids
Ryan’s pick:
The Descendants, because Fuck Paradise
Craig’s pick:
The Help
TV – for the hell of it
PRIMETIME TELEVISION
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
LAURENCE FISHBURNE / Thurgood Marshall – “THURGOOD” (HBO)
PAUL GIAMATTI / Ben Bernanke – “TOO BIG TO FAIL” (HBO)
GREG KINNEAR / Jack Kennedy – “THE KENNEDYS” (REELZ CHANNEL)
GUY PEARCE / Monty Beragon – “MILDRED PIERCE“ (HBO)
JAMES WOODS / Richard Fuld – “TOO BIG TO FAIL” (HBO)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
DIANE LANE / Pat Loud – “CINEMA VERITE” (HBO)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
EMILY WATSON / Janet Leach – “APPROPRIATE ADULT” (Sundance Channel)
BETTY WHITE / Caroline Thomas – “HALLMARK HALL OF FAME: THE LOST VALENTINE” (CBS)
KATE WINSLET / Mildred Pierce – “MILDRED PIERCE” (HBO)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
PATRICK J. ADAMS / Mike Ross – “SUITS” (USA)
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thomson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
KYLE CHANDLER / Eric Taylor – “FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS” (DirecTV)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
MICHAEL C. HALL / Dexter Morgan – “DEXTER” (Showtime)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
KATHY BATES / Harriet Korn – “HARRY’S LAW” (NBC)
GLENN CLOSE / Patty Hewes – “DAMAGES” (DirecTV)
JESSICA LANGE / Constance – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
KYRA SEDGWICK / Dept. Chief Brenda Leigh Johnson – “THE CLOSER” (TNT)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Glenn Close, Damages
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
STEVE CARELL / Michael Scott – “THE OFFICE” (NBC)
JON CRYER / Alan Harper – “TWO AND A HALF MEN” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Steve Carell, The Office
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
JULIE BOWEN / Claire Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)
Sasha’s Predictions:
Will Win: Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson
DOMINIC CHIANESE / Leander Cephas Whitlock
ROBERT CLOHESSY / Ward Boss Jim Neary
DABNEY COLEMAN / Commodore Louis Kaestner
CHARLIE COX / Owen Sleater
JOSIE & LUCY GALLINA / Emily Schroeder
STEPHEN GRAHAM / Al Capone
JACK HUSTON / Richard Harrow
ANTHONY LACIURA / Eddie Kessler
HEATHER LIND / Katy
KELLY MACDONALD / Margaret Schroeder
RORY & DECLAN McTIGUE / Teddy Schroeder
GRETCHEN MOL / Gillian Darmody
BRADY & CONNOR NOON/ Tommy Darmody
KEVIN O’ROURKE / Mayor Edward Bader
ALEKSA PALLADINO / Angela Darmody
JACQUELINE PENNEWILL / Lilian
VINCENT PIAZZA / Lucky Luciano
MICHAEL PITT / Jimmy Darmody
MICHAEL SHANNON / Agent Nelson Van Alden
PAUL SPARKS / Mickey Doyle
MICHAEL STUHLBARG / Arnold Rothstein
PETER VAN WAGNER / Isaac “Icky” Ginsburg
SHEA WHIGHAM / Sheriff Elias Thompson
MICHAEL KENNETH WILLIAMS / Chalky White
ANATOL YUSEF / Meyer Lansky
BREAKING BAD (AMC)
JONATHAN BANKS / Mike
BETSY BRANDT / Marie Schrader
RAY CAMPBELL / Tyrus Kitt
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White
GIANCARLO ESPOSITO / Gus Fring
ANNA GUNN / Skyler White
RJ MITTE / Walter White, Jr.
DEAN NORRIS / Hank Schrader
BOB ODENKIRK / Saul Goodman
AARON PAUL / Jesse Pinkman
DEXTER (Showtime)
BILLY BROWN / Chicago Mike
JENNIFER CARPENTER / Debra Morgan
JOSH COOKE / Louis
AIMEE GARCIA / Jamie Batista
MICHAEL C. HALL / Dexter Morgan
COLIN HANKS / Travis Marshall
DESMOND HARRINGTON / Joey Quinn
MARIA DOYLE KENNEDY / Sonya
RYA KIHLSTEDT / Michelle
C.S. LEE / Vince Masuka
EDWARD JAMES OLMOS / Professor Gellar
JAMES REMAR / Harry Morgan
LAUREN VELEZ / Lt. Maria LaGuerta
PETER WELLER / Liddy
DAVID ZAYAS / Sgt. Angel Batista
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
AMRITA ACHARIA / Irri
MARK ADDY / King Robert Baratheon
ALFIE ALLEN / Theon Greyjoy
JOSEF ALTIN / Pypar
SEAN BEAN / Lord Eddard “Ned” Stark
SUSAN BROWN / Septa Mordane
EMILIA CLARKE / Daenerys Targaryen
NIKOLAJ COSTER-WALDAU / Ser Jaime Lannister
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister
RON DONACHIE / Ser Rodrik Cassel
MICHELLE FAIRLEY / Lady Catelyn Stark
JEROME FLYNN / Bronn
ELYES GABEL / Rakharo
AIDEN GILLEN / “Littlefinger” Petyr Baelish
JACK GLEESON / Joffrey Baratheon
IAIN GLEN / Ser Jorah Mormont
JULIAN GLOVER / Grand Maester Pycelle
KIT HARINGTON / Jon Snow
LENA HEADEY / Queen Cersei Lannister
ISAAC HEMPSTEAD WRIGHT / Bran Stark
CONLETH HILL / Lord Varys
RICHARD MADDEN / Robb Stark
JASON MAMOA / Kahl Drogo
RORY McCANN / Sandor Clegane
IAN McELHINNEY / Barristan Selmy
LUKE McEWAN / Rast
ROXANNE McKEE / Doreah
DAR SALIM / Qotho
MARK STANLEY / Grenn
DONALD SUMPTER / Maester Luwin
SOPHIE TURNER / Sansa Stark
MAISIE WILLIAMS / Arya Stark
THE GOOD WIFE (CBS)
CHRISTINE BARANSKI / Diane Lockhart
JOSH CHARLES / Will Gardner
ALAN CUMMING / Eli Gold
MATT CZUCHRY / Cary Agos
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick
CHRIS NOTH / Peter Florrick
ARCHIE PANJABI / Kalinda Sharma
GRAHAM PHILLIPS / Zach Florrick
MAKENZIE VEGA / Grace Florrick
Sasha’s Prediction: Breaking Bad
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
30 ROCK (NBC)
SCOTT ADSIT / Pete Hornberger
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy
KATRINA BOWDEN / Cerie
KEVIN BROWN / Dotcom
GRIZZ CHAPMAN / Grizz
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon
JUDAH FRIEDLANDER / Frank Rossitano
JANE KRAKOWSKI / Jenna Maroney
JOHN LUTZ / Lutz
JACK MCBRAYER / Kenneth Parcell
TRACY MORGAN / Tracy Jordan
MAULIK PANCHOLY / Jonathan
KEITH POWELL / Toofer
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
MAYIM BIALIK / Amy Farrah Fowler
KALEY CUOCO / Penny
JOHNNY GALECKI / Leonard Hofstadter
SIMON HELBERG / Howard Wolowitz
KUNAL NAYYAR / Rajesh Koothrappali
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper
MELISSA RAUCH / Bernadette Rostenkowski
GLEE (FOX)
DIANNA AGRON / Quinn Fabray
CHRIS COLFER / Kurt Hummel
DARREN CRISS / Blaine Anderson
ASHLEY FINK / Lauren Zizes
DOT MARIE JONES / Coach Beiste
JANE LYNCH / Sue Sylvester
JAYMA MAYS / Emma Pillsbury
KEVIN McHALE / Artie Abrams
LEA MICHELE / Rachel Berry
CORY MONTEITH / Finn Hudson
HEATHER MORRIS / Brittany Pierce
MATTHEW MORRISON / Will Schuester
MIKE O’MALLEY / Burt Hummel
CHORD OVERSTREET / Sam Evans
LAUREN POTTER / Becky Johnson
AMBER RILEY / Mercedes Jones
NAYA RIVERA / Santana Lopez
MARK SALLING / Noah ‘Puck’ Puckerman
HARRY SHUM, JR. / Mike Chang
IQBAL THEBA / Principal Figgins
JENNA USHKOWITZ / Tina Cohen-Chang
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
AUBREY ANDERSON-EMMONS / Lily
JULIE BOWEN / Claire
TY BURRELL / Phil
JESSE TYLER FERGUSON / Mitchell
NOLAN GOULD / Luke
SARAH HYLAND / Haley
ED O’NEILL / Jay
RICO RODRIGUEZ / Manny
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria
ARIEL WINTER / Alex
THE OFFICE (NBC)
LESLIE DAVID BAKER / Stanley Hudson
BRIAN BAUMGARTNER / Kevin Malone
CREED BRATTON / Creed Bratton
STEVE CARELL / Michael Scott
JENNA FISCHER / Pam Beesly Halpert
KATE FLANNERY / Meredith Palmer
ED HELMS / Andy Bernard
MINDY KALING / Kelly Kapoor
ELLIE KEMPER / Erin Hannon
ANGELA KINSEY / Angela Martin
JOHN KRASINSKI / Jim Halpert
PAUL LIEBERSTEIN / Toby Flenderson
B.J. NOVAK / Ryan Howard
OSCAR NUÑEZ / Oscar Martinez
CRAIG ROBINSON / Daryll Philbin
JAMES SPADER / Robert California
PHYLLIS SMITH / Phyllis Lapin-Vance
RAINN WILSON / Dwight Schrute
ZACH WOODS / Gabe Lewis
Sasha’s Prediction: Modern Family
Social tagging: Sag Preview
I’d be shocked if Viola Davis doesn’t win. Not only is it the better performance, but her speech at the Critics Choice brought the house to tears. Plus The Help screener was sent to every single person in SAG. The Iron Lady was not (PR campaign or not). And I would be surprised if even a majority of the membership had seen her movie. Probably far less than that.
I have a feeling that Streep will win best actress ( and Oscar too) and The Help ensemble.Clooney will win SAG (cause he never won before) and Pitt will win Oscar (cause he never won before). Plummer supporting (both awards) and I wouldn’t be surprised if they give Oscar to Jessica Chastain for her body of work last year even though Spencer’s performance is the most memorable in that movie, and SAG to Melissa McCarthy (cause tv actors like her,they gave her an Emmy).
“Wait, Rooooneeeey wasn’t nominated? Screw this…” Guy who gives far more value to his own subjective opinions than he actually should.
The acting categories will probably give us the biggest surprises since Best Picture is so locked up. I guess the results here make for our best predictors, no?
I wouldn’t leave out a possible repeat of the SAG 2003. We had two frontrunners (Penn and Murray) but Depp won. So it could go to Pitt. The clear favorite though is Clooney. Viola Davis is the favorite because clearly her movie is much more loved than Iron Lady. Streep is a godess among actors but her movie is weak.
My predictions:
The Help
Pitt
Streep
Plummer
McCarthy
TV:
Game of Thrones and Modern Family (because the latter it’s poised to win everything, despite the fact no one really thinks it deserves it)
Cranston
Margulies
Carrell
White
Pearce
Winslet
@The Dude
I like Modern Family.
@Armando- Great first season, not so much afterwards. Certainly not in the level of, say, Community and Louie.
Predictions:
Actor: Brad Pitt(in an upset)
Actress: Viola Davis(she’s very well-liked/respected); Streep recently won for “Doubt” and Close has won recently as well for “Lion in the Winter” and is nominated for “Damages”
S. Actor: Christopher Plummer
S. Actress: Jessica Chastain(in an upset due to her body of work this year and may make this category more interesting prior to the Oscars)
Ensemble: The Help or The Artist
So if the HELP wins Ensemble and possibly two acting awards will we then have to take its Best Picture Oscar chances more seriously?
@Ken
The Iron Lady was sent to all SAG members.
“So if the HELP wins Ensemble and possibly two acting awards will we then have to take its Best Picture Oscar chances more seriously?”
Huh…no.
I find it baffling and ridiculous that there’s always an argument that the voting members “haven’t seen the movie”–especially related to MERYL STREEP, the greatest living actress in the world! You would think ACTORS flocked to see her performance! And if it really is true that they do not watch films if they are not seen “screeners” then how ridiculously fucking stupid. Go out to the cinema like us regular common folk and the rest of civilization! Sorry, my little rant for the day…
@The Dude – I believe Modern Family deserves it…it’s the funniest and strongest ensemble on TV, ergo deserves it.
Bichir in a a beautiful upset to REALLY shake up the Oscars, please!
I’m sooo looking forward to seeing Michelle Williams receive her first SAG award. So well deserved, and she is a very humble speaker, so her acceptance speach should be moving.
Thank god Betty White isn’t up for a film award. She wins everything!
@Regina
Hmmm….Iron Lady was not on the original screener list. But I am looking at the SAG site now and you are indeed correct: they indicate that it was a very late screener (i.e. it didn’t arrive until THIS week). Although considering voting has been open for a few weeks and closed an hour ago today, not sure how much of an effect a late arriving screener would have.
“So we’ll celebrate Streep as she wins her second lead Oscar. The last time she won was way back in the 1980s. This will be her 3rd Oscar. By contrast, Hilary Swank has two lead Oscars, and so does Jodie Foster, etc.”
What does that mean? Is it shame that Foster has two (deserved) lead Oscars and Streep doesn’t?
I voted before the Oscar noms. Here were my votes:
Best Actor
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / J. Edgar Hoover – “J. EDGAR”
Best Actress
MERYL STREEP / Margaret Thatcher – “THE IRON LADY”
Best Supporting Actor
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER / Hal – “BEGINNERS”
Best Supporting Actress
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Celia Foote – “THE HELP”
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
“THE HELP”
I still can’t get over the fact that Clooney and Pitt are getting raves for their mediocre (average at best) work. Bah!
I hope Viola Davis won’t win, sunday and at the Oscars. I liked her performance in the Help and she is a truly gifted actress, but in my opinion in this film she was always upstaged by Octavia Spencer, B Dallas Howard, Jessica Chastain… and her role was supporting not leading. I hope she will win Sag and Oscar in the future for a really unforgettable role, leading or supporting, in the right category.
@Sasha Stone you forgot Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Clooney and Pitt are two of the movies’best actors? Oh sure.
Off-topic…
The Chlotrudis nominations are in at last. As unconventional as ever, and as brilliant
http://chlotrudis.org/content/artist-leads-pack-nominations-18th-annual-chlotrudis-awards
Yes, I am SAG and Iron Lady DVD arrived last week. No screener for Marilyn was sent.
Who did you vote for Sean???
I voted for:
Bridesmaids
Pitt
Streep
Chastain
Plummer
I love this website. Thank you Sasha for everything you do.
Clooney in the Descendants is masterful and touching and true in every shot he is in, he drives the movie. Pitt is gigantic in The tree of life and really subtle in moneyball. The both are deserving the Oscar.
Oh, to hell with it, let’s go crazy!
BEST ENSEMBLE : The Help
BEST LEAD ACTRESS : Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
BEST LEAD ACTOR : Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS : Jessica Chastain (The Help)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR : Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Although I’m fully aware that The Artist/The Descendants, Davis/Streep, Clooney/Dujardin, Spencer/Bejo are THE supposed battles here, I would like to think that remarkably talented, classically trained actresses like Close and Chastain, and (at least when it comes to individual wins) SAGless Brad Pitt with a career-best year behind him, are all AT LEAST in consideration. And even though a Bridesmaids-win would result instant controversy, I would love to see the wonderful Jill Clayburgh embraced one last time, not to mention the criminally underrated Rose Byrne would finally win something, too.
And as far as the TV-categories go, I can’t take ANY organization seriously that ignores the cast of ‘Homeland’, but oh, well.. GO Modern Family, The Good Wife, Damages ! If Glenn Close wins an award on Saturday, it will be probably another for her TV-work…too bad, considering she gave several legendary feature performances and all those still weren’t enough for a fucking Oscar!
Best ensemble: Midnight in Paris
Clooney
Davis
Plummer
Spencer
The Help
ENSEMBLE: The Descendants
ACTOR: DiCaprio
ACTRESS: Streep
SUP. ACTOR: Plummer
SUP. ACTRESS: Spencer
Ahem:
Jean Dujardin
Viola Davis
Christopher Plummer
Octavia Spencer
THE HELP
THE HELP is The Populist Choice by a million yards, and with so many voters, I can’t see it losing any of its categories. TWC makes its presence known in Lead Actor instead. Plummer continues to be unstoppable.
Guy Pearce
Kate Winslet
Kyle Chandler
Julianna Margulies
Jon Cryer
Betty White
“Modern Family”
“Game of Thrones”
“Mildred Pierce” is a true heavyweight, but I’m not counting Maggie Smith out to upset Winslet. Chandler and Margulies’s wins will mirror the Emmys. Jon Cryer gets an award for not being Charlie Sheen, and Betty White gets one for being Betty White. “Modern Family” is probably the easiest pick of the whole evening, even more so than Plummer; with four actors nominated individually, how can it lose Ensemble? And “Game of Thrones” will finally win something beyond Dinklage. It was the best thing on any channel, at any time, this past year. It was one of the greatest seasons of any TV series, ever. The only people who don’t think so are:
1. People who didn’t watch it, and
2. Genre bigots.
SAG has enough voters that reason will finally prevail.
Phantom. nice mention of the late great Jill Clayburgh – such a loss. Very game predictions. I’m with Kerchee’s predix
The Help
Clooney
Davis
Plummer
Spencer
tv: Giamatti, Winslet, Cranston, Close, Burrell, Falco, Boardwalk, Mod F
What does that mean? Is it shame that Foster has two (deserved) lead Oscars and Streep doesn’t?
Yup, Supporting Oscars don’t count, didn’t you know?
Thanks Dave, it has been a while, nice to see you back ! Well, my predictions are definitely crazy, I don’t expect to win any contests for sure
I just thought, oh hell, I am bored with predicting the SAME people every single time, some organization decides to announce awards.
Just saw the iron lady and meryl gave an amazing preformance, she did’t play thatcher she WAS thatcher! My money was on Davis becauase she gave a solid performance but after seeing meryl i thinks she’s the one of them most deserving, and yes that’s what this race should be about, who’s the most DESERVING ! there has been a number of discussions lately about skin colour, the overdue-status…but the performance is what it should be about , even if it’s sadly that way ever…..I’m crossing my finger and toes for meryl this year, this might be her last nomination ! I love Viola too but she has only had two oscar-noms and her preformance is nothing against meryl’s even though her film is better overall.
Being a SAG member i voted last week for the following:
Actor: Jean Dujardincategory ballot
Actress: Meryl Streep
Supp. Actor: Christopher Plummer
Supp. Actress: Octavia Spencer
Ensemble: The Artist
I tell you this: rumor has it in the SAG that The Artist is winning by a large vote number in every category ballot, so don’t be shocked if it’s winning Ensemble, and…well, i voted for Streep, but Viola is just winning this in the bag! Feel free to ask ask me about dvd screeners or voting system if you want
Heath87:
I have a lot of questions for you. I’m sooo curious.
1. Source of your rumor?
2. Do you have any ideas how many SAG members actually vote?
I suddenly ran out of questions. Boo. I’ll ask if I have more in mind! XD
Winners Predictions:
Ensemble: The Artist
(My Favourite: The Artist)
Lead Actor: Brad Pitt – Moneyball
(My Favourite: Jean Dujardin – The Artist)
Lead Actress: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
(My Favourite: Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn or Tilda Swinton – We need to talk about Kevin)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer – Beginners
(My Favourite: Christopher Plummer – Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer – The Help
(My Favourite: Jessica Chastain – The Help or Berenice Bejo – The Artist)
@Regina
1. I’m from Italy and, in some ways, Roberto Benigni is a very good friend of my family since decades..i’m an actor too, generally TV actor…i remember when i was asking Roberto how the voting system works, he told me that The Artist was so much beloved among actor…and that Viola Davis is poised to win! If you count that he is also an Academy member, this rumor seems true xD
2. I really don’t know the number..really…but i think 120.000, as it says on the site…but again, i really don’t know
Jenna
“I’m crossing my finger and toes for meryl this year, this might be her last nomination ! I love Viola too but she has only had two oscar-noms and her preformance is nothing against meryl’s even though her film is better overall.”
As a big Meryl-fan to another, I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt, that ‘The Iron Lady’ will NOT be Meryl Streep’s last Oscar nomination. She is only 62, she STILL works full-time and I am fairly certain that won’t change for at least the next few years or so and since it is 100% she WILL continue excelling her roles, she will be definitely back. She is destined to deliver one of her strongest performances in ‘August : Osage County’ which will be released sometime next year, and until then she has a dramedy with a December release date, and though ‘Great Hope Springs’ doesn’t seem like Oscar-bait, Streep will knock it out of the park for sure, so if her role is well-written AND the film isn’t a disaster, she could be back in the Oscar-game as soon as this year…but DEFINITELY next year.
And re: Viola Davis, it is remarkably unfair to say that she doesn’t deserve an Oscar as much as Meryl Streep, solely because she ‘only’ had 2 Oscar nominations and Streep had 17…Meryl Streep has the privilege of landing outstanding, Oscar-friendly roles basically on a yearly basis, something that is DEFINITELY not the privilege of a stunningly talented African-American actress over 40…the fact that she scored TWO roles that could garner her Oscar-nominations are REMARKABLY impressive already.
Having said that, this year I would be PERFECTLY happy with any Best Actress nominee taking home the Oscar, and I say that strictly performance-wise, I think all of them deserve to be in the final top5 and ANY of them would be a deserving winner.
The ensemble lineup of Midnight in Paris is so incomplete considering Carla Bruni is included. Before her, the following had longer screen times and more significant roles: Nina Arianda, Corey Stoll, Tom Hiddleston (who bears such a striking resemblance to Franchot Tone I thought he was some kind of visual effect), Alison Pill, Mimi Kennedy, and Kurt Fuller. I guess SAG wants Bruni to attend the awards show tagging along Sarkozy.
My Picks:
Ensemble – The Artist
Actor – George Clooney
Actress – Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer
Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer
I have no inkling whatsoever with the TV categories. I haven’t seen a single episode from any of these shows. I only watch movies, sports, news, and American Idol on TV.
I hope ‘The Artist’ won’t take Best Ensemble. It had TWO truly excellent performances, the others were basically cameos. I’m rooting for ‘The Help’, I don’t think the film was great (it was good IMO), but either you love it or hate it, I think we can agree that the cast DEFINITELY deserves praise. The supporting actress category could have been filled with ‘The Help’ ladies alone…Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Emma Stone, Jessica Chastain, Bryce Dallas Howard, Sissy Spacek, Allison Janney, Cicely Tyson all brought their A-game, not to mention promising newcomer Ahna O’Reilly and even Mary Steenburgen, who didn’t have much to do, but was still nice to see in this film.
Bottom line : I think ‘The Artist’ featured two of the best performances of 2011 BUT that doesn’t make it the best ensemble. Same goes for ‘The Descendants’, meanwhile the performances in ‘Bridesmaids’ and ‘Midnight in Paris’ though impressive, probably too ‘light’…everybody was good in these two films, but in my opinion only McCarthy, Corey Stoll and Kathy Bates were GREAT…and again, 1 or 2 outstanding performance surrounded by a few good ones, shouldn’t be considered THE most Outstanding Ensemble. But that’s just my 2 cents…
Heath87, any inside information on Chastain, if she’s well-liked, if she has any shot at all?
@Heath87
Niiiiiiiice! I just died with your response in (1). Hahahahaha
I am studying math (actuarial science, actually) and I really want to capture the voting preferences of the AMPAS and SAG, down the the last vote. That’s why I’m asking how many members really are voting.
@John…i really don’t know…i have this gut feeling that is Octavia’s to lose…but, living in Italy it doesn’t help…^^
@regina i’ll keep you informed..xD
If you want i could give you infos on how benigni votes for the academy or how i voted for SAG’s !
Actress
Will win : Viola Davis ( Viola have this in the bag and Meryl wins recently for Doubt )
Should win : Streep
Actor
Will win: Clooney or Dujardin
Should Win: Pitt or Bichir
Actrees in a suport role
Will win: Octavia Spencer
Should win: Chastain or Berenice Bejo
Actor in a suport role
Will win: crhistopher Plummer
Should win: Christopher Plumer
I forgot
best ensemble
Will win: The help
Should win: Midnight in Paris
@Vivi: I think this is a strange thing to say that Meryl Streep won`t win, because of her win in 2009! I think she has the same chances like Viola Davis and in my opinion she is deserving this award.
This will probably go to The Help for exactly the reason Phantom mentions. It’s the only true ensemble movie out of the bunch. MIP and The Artist has a lot of (charming) cameos, but they don’t seem like obvious choices in this particular category.
The only reason for a The Artist upset would be if the SAG voters feel that voting for Spencer and Davis in the individual categories (where it’s more than likely that they will come out victorious), is enough of a reward for the film. So awarding The Artist for ensemble would be akin to naming it best picture of the year (and it IS a better film than The Help, no doubt about it). Voters might feel that THREE prices in one night for one movie is a tad excessive, so spreading the wealth would be a natural reaction on voters’ behalf…?
So, basically, I see this as a 50/50 toss up between The Help and The Artist, which makes it more than a little interesting to follow…
@Vivi: I think this is a strange thing to say that Meryl Streep won`t win, because of her win in 2009! I think she has the same chances like Viola Davis and in my opinion she is deserving this award.
Wolf
I am the biggest fan of Meryl Streep and for me she wins every single award in the season, she deserves the SAG and the oscar, but sadly Viola Davis will win the SAG…
And yes, not we and the SAG members forget, Meryl Wins about 2 years ago, and this count…
Actress SAG preference in order
Meryl Streep
Tilda Swinton
Michelle Willians
Viola Davis
Glen Close
P.S.: sorry for the gramatical errors…
Phantom,
Your reasoning why The Help will most likely win the Ensemble award in my opinion is plausible and not a probability.
Only plausible because it certainly did not work for that one movie, three years ago), that had all its actors nominated (Lead Actress, Lead Actor and two Supporting Actress awards).
(pun intended) – any “Doubt?”
@Vivi:I´m from Germany so I will have gramatical errors too!!
But I see this award season different than you. Meryl Streep didn`t win every award this year! And don´t forget Daniel Day Lewis. He won in 2002 and in 2007.
@Vivi:I´m from Germany so I will have gramatical errors too!!
But I see this award season different than you. Meryl Streep didn`t win every award this year! And don´t forget Daniel Day Lewis. He won in 2002 and in 2007.
Wolf
I live in Portugal, but born in Brasil kkkk and i try but my english is not very good.
I wanna say: for me if i could vote, i give every single award for the briliantly Meryl for her permormance of Margareth Tacther…
But i am very realist, Viola Davis is very respect and the film The help is very loved, so i really think she is gonne winn the SAG and problaly the oscar…
Didn’t Inglorious Basterds win this the year The Hurt Locker took best picture?
What I think easily reflects its category is DGA and Director.. and I’m betting The Artist will win both those.
T.
my predictions:
ENSEMBLE: The Descendants
ACTOR: Dujardin
ACTRESS: Streep
SUP. ACTOR: Plummer
SUP. ACTRESS: McCarthy
T.
@Vivi: I don`t know. Maybe “The Help” is well liked, but I think the members of the Academy will honor the performance of an actor/actress. I don´t know exactly how it works for the SAG Members. But if Meryl Streep loses again this year at the Oscars it would be the biggest slap towards an actress ever. Because Meryl Streep is in my opinion so close to a possible win this year at the Oscars.
It really bugs me that every time Viola Davis is questioned it’s for reasons outside her great performance. “She shouldn’t win just because she’s black.” “She shouldn’t win just because she won’t have more opportunities.” And she’s the most frequently questioned of the candidates. I wonder why. I guess I see ghosts where there aren’t any.
She’s a deserving winner because she gave a great performance, not as showy as Spencer, not as flashy as to have boogers hanging out, but a great performance, nonetheless.
And I agree that best ensemble shouldn’t go to The Artist. If it does it will only mean they want is a BP winner. John Goodman wasn’t in his finest hour and Penelope Ann Miller part was more a cameo.
I’m a SAG member and all i have to say is that Viola is probably winning this thing…i mean, my screener for The iron Lady arrived a wek ago, here in Italy…^^
@Heath87: You are in Italy…Aha.Please tell me why you are so sure that Viola Davis is winning the SAG Award? Even you voted for Meryl Streep. And you didn`t see movie. What is the basis for your statement?
I saw both The Help AND the Iron Lady but, as i recall, the dvd screener for the latter one was sent just one week ago before the closing time of our SAG vote…i really think that many many members didn’t have time to watch Streep’s performance and vote for her..just saying..it’s not a mathematical thing of course….
O.K., but there are maybe some voters, who did see The Iron Lady and The Help at the cinema.
Diego
Sure, but The Help is no Doubt…there is no doubt about that. It is MUCH stronger as far as precursors/hype/audience-love go.
Yeah, of course…i’m just sayin’ that The Help is very much beloved among actors ^^
Just one remark by the way: Viola Davis is here,I can only speak for Germany, nearly an unknown actress. Whereas the movie “The Iron Lady” is everywhere, although “The Iron Lady” starts not until march!
Here in Italy, The Iron Lady opened yesterday ^^
Anyway, Viola Davis is also an unknown in Italy…we’ll see…i voted for Meryl of course, but i would bet my money on Viola upsetting her!
Yes, we will see.
I pray everyday that Jessica Chastain will win the Academy Award for her great work in “The Help”. The Movie was OK but her Performance was outstanding! I mean a year ago most of the people didn’t know her name and one year after she was in 6 oscar potential movies! Her best work this year was for sure in The Tree of Life. I mean to be a scenestealer in a movie with Sean Penn and Brad Pitt, i think that means something! So Mrs. Chastain i pray for you and i hope your name will be in the envelope!
Jessica Lange is going to win folks!!!! She must
Simon Warrasch
FINALLY someone who agrees with me. Considering the range she delivered with such limited screentime, I am fairly surprised that Chastain isn’t considered much more seriously. She basically brought a different side EVERY single scene : ditzy blonde I LIKE, heartbroken woman after miscarriage I FELT for, funny drunk who made me LAUGH, desperate outcast who made me CARE. She stole every scene she was in AND she made us care about her character that wasn’t even supposed to be an important one, and all that with what, 20 minutes screentime ? Now THAT’s impressive…if we strictly go by performances, I think she gave the best one in the supporting actress category. Bejo is close behind, but she is also a lead and should not be competing against actual supporting players…oh, the damn category fraud ! Having said that, I would love to see Spencer win, she was also a relevation and even though McTeer doesn’t stand a chance, it’s nice to see her in the top5, she REALLY deserved it.
lmao, Davis is winning easily. She’s a working actress with mad respect in the industry, Streep won SAG recently, Streep’s backing up Davis, Aibileen is heroic unlike Thatcher, The Help is nominated in a bunch of other places. The Help is winning in every category it’s up for. It’s basically a perfect acting showcase and nothing else. It’s outright bad logic saying that because Octavia Spencer is winning in Supporting, that means they won’t also give Lead to Davis. The fuck? If they love The Help, they love The Help. And they do. They really, really do. Sasha, I’m actually disappointed in you here. And Davis is winning the Oscar too, probably what Streep actually wants.
At some point SAG will repeat a winner in the Lead Actress category – they already have with Daniel Day Lewis in Lead, and Kate WInslet in Supp, so the notion that Streep has won already, and they won’t repeat – won’t hold for much longer.
My predictions (please note – I have no connection with SAG):
Best Actor: George Clooney
Last 7 winners of this award have gone onto win the Oscar. Therefore, I would predict on the basis of who has the best chance of winning the Oscar. (Although, it would be terrific if Leo DiCaprio had already garnered enough votes before the Oscar nominations were announced, and pulled off a coup, highly unlikely though…) Yes, Brad Pitt can definitely upset the apple-cart. We could be faced with a Mickey Rourke-Sean Penn situation at the Oscars. The person who deserves to win might not win the Oscar after all.
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, hands down.
If SAG does vote for Viola Davis, Streep is finished. For the Oscars, the Brits in the Academy obviously won’t go for Streep ‘cos Margaret Thatcher is a loathed individual (we all know how much influence the Brit voting bloc holds). Plus the ‘political correctness’ of the Academy might ensure a Davis win at the Oscars. For Glenn Close, the nomination is as good as a win here. Yes, the actors respect her…but, do they really? Didn’t a certain Gary Oldman (whom the actors ‘claim’ to be inspired by and respect so much) get snubbed by SAG itself?
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
I honestly cannot see anybody else winning this award. Not even Plummer’s fellow thespian Kenneth Branagh, or even a newbie like Jonah Hill.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Last two winners of this award (Mo’Nique and Melissa Leo) went on to win the Oscar. So yeah, Octavia Spencer gets this one. With regards to Melissa McCarthy, how can TV actors vote for film actors? Yes, they are all part of the guild, but if TV actors are so busy with their daily shooting, how do they get time to judge the performances?? (One assumes that the actors HAVE to sit through the entire length of the film and then take a call) As for Jessica Chastain, if you’re saying she would win because she was part of six films, again, do (TV) actors have time to actually see all those films? If yes, Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus) and Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) should’ve been nominated too.
Best Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture: The Help
Traditionally considered to be the precursor for Oscar Best Pic winner, and it worked last year. But sometimes, it goes by the cast itself. So, I’ll go with ‘The Help’. Honestly, if ‘The Artist’ wins this one, I’ll be shocked.
Best Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The category that no one cares about. I chose HP ‘cos the poor film’s got to win SOMETHING!!!!
My predictions for the Sag Awards:
Best Actor: George Clooney
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Best Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture: The Help
If the Sag Members voted for Octavia Spencer and the best Cast Ensemble “The Help”, I can`t imagine that they will vote for Viola Davis.
Should Davis win the Sag Award, I think that the Best Actress race is again wide open. I don´t that Meryl Streep is “finished” if Viola Davis wins the Sag Award.
If I was SAG (and I hope to be within this year) my votes would be;
Ensemble – Bridesmaids
Actor – Jead Dujardin – The Artist
Actress – Glenn Close
S. Actor – Christopher Plummer
S. Actress – Jessica Chastain
TV Drama – Breaking Bad
TV Comedy – Modern Family
Drama Actor – Michael C Hall – Dexter
Drama Actress – Jessica Lange – American Horror Story
Comedy Actor – Steve Carrell – The Office
Comedy Actress – Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie
TV Movie Actor – Guy Pearce – Mildred Pierce
TV Movie Actress – Kate Winslet – Mildred Pierce
One thing I’ve said all year: Viola Davis is a lock for Best Actress. Tonight just proved it. THE HELP, with two African American performers winning the same night for the same film will give the Academy the chance for an evening of self-congratulations that it hasn’t enjoyed since ten years ago, when Denzel Washington and Halle Berry won lead and Sidney Poitier got a special.
As for Streep, this proves something else: There has to be a movie! Streep will not win her third Oscar just for being Meryl Streep, or else she would have won two years ago, when the competition was much less formidable.
Jean Dujardin might just profit from a freak year that pits Brad Pitt and George Clooney, the defining movie actors of this era, against each other in equally fine performances, although I’d vote for Pitt. If I were either of their publicists, I would cause clips of Roberto Benigni’s Oscar speech from 13 years ago to go viral some way. Dujardin is not a moronic loon like Benigni; in fact, he’s a charming Gallic gentleman, and a star in France whose films must not translate well. But he is, like Benigni, a charismatic newcomer thrust into the American spotlight by the Weinstein awards machine. It’s doubtful that an Oscar to Dujardin would look as embarrassing a few years later as Benigni’s does. And Benigni won over a field as imposing as the one Dujardin faces. The race should have been between Ian McKellen for GODS AND MONSTERS and Tom Hanks, who gives a career-peak performance in SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, more Oscar-worthy than either of the roles he won for.
If either Brad Pitt in MONEYBALL or George Clooney (THE DESCENDENTS) were nominated without the other, he would win in a walk. Since that’s not the case, lucky Jean Dujardin had better starting brushing up his English. This looks like a classic come-between like Judy Holliday between Bette Davis and Gloria Swanson in 1950 and Maggie Smith between Jane Fonda and Liza Minnelli in 1969.