BAFTA Preview and Predictions
The British Academy of Film and Television will announce their winners as 2011 comes to a clattering, somewhat disappointing close. There really isn’t anything the BAFTA can do at this point to alter the race. The only thing that might alter things sort of would be if The Artist doesn’t hit. But we know it will so this is really just about going through the motions at this point. Let’s do it, then, shall we? We can pretend like it’s the first time.
BEST FILM
- THE ARTIST – Thomas Langmann
- THE DESCENDANTS – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
- DRIVE – Marc Platt, Adam Siegel
- THE HELP – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo
Prediction – well, we know The Artist is going to win. With Hugo out, no other film has a shot. Though if any film BUT The Artist won it would be a bizarre twist. Only three of these went on to be nominated for Oscar.
DIRECTOR
- THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
- DRIVE Nicolas – Winding Refn
- HUGO – Martin Scorsese
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tomas Alfredson
- WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay
If The Artist is following the Hurt Locker/Slumdog trajectory we have to figure that Hazanavicius has this in the bag. Only two of these went on to be nominated for Oscar.
Last year, they did the right thing by awarding David Fincher over homegrown Tom Hooper — leaving only the DGA and the Academy to live that one down. In 2006, Paul Greengrass won Best Director for United 93, which was nominated for Best British film but not nominated for Best Picture. But since the BAFTA changed their date to occur before the Oscars, no director has won without a Best Picture or Best British Film nomination. So it could be pretty much any of them BUT Scorsese but you never know. Ten years of history isn’t that long. Still–
Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Spoiler: Refn
Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Spoiler: Refn
LEADING ACTOR
- BRAD PITT – Moneyball
- GARY OLDMAN – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- GEORGE CLOONEY – The Descendants
- JEAN DUJARDIN – The Artist
- MICHAEL FASSBENDER – Shame
This is a tough one. I think Jean DuJardin is going to win the Oscar but I think the BAFTA might go a different way, maybe say Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, thereby honoring one of their own. Fassbender would also be possible.
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor
Spoiler: Jean DuJardin
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor
Spoiler: Jean DuJardin
LEADING ACTRESS
- BÉRÉNICE BEJO The Artist – Film
- MERYL STREEP – The Iron Lady
- MICHELLE WILLIAMS – My Week with Marilyn
- TILDA SWINTON – We Need to Talk About Kevin
- VIOLA DAVIS – The Help
Well it’s Maggie Thatcher so it’s gotta be Streep. I would plotz if they went for Tilda Swinton.
Prediction: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER – Beginners
- JIM BROADBENT – The Iron Lady
- JONAH HILL – Moneyball
- KENNETH BRANAGH – My Week with Marilyn
- PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – The Ides of March
I’m guessing that this is down to Kenneth Branagh and Christopher Plummer.
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- CAREY MULLIGAN – Drive
- JESSICA CHASTAIN – The Help
- JUDI DENCH – My Week with Marilyn
- MELISSA MCCARTHY – Bridesmaids
- OCTAVIA SPENCER – The Help
They seemed to like The Help and I figure Spencer can’t lose at this point, so–
Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Spoiler: Carey Mulligan, Drive
Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Spoiler: Carey Mulligan, Drive
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Simon Curtis, David Parfitt, Harvey Weinstein, Adrian Hodges
- SENNA – Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Manish Pandey
- SHAME – Steve McQueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Abi Morgan
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – _Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan
- WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay, Luc Roeg, Jennifer Fox, Robert Salerno, Rory Stewart Kinnear
Prediction: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Spoiler: Kevin
Spoiler: Kevin
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- ATTACK THE BLOCK – Joe Cornish (Director/Writer)
- BLACK POND – Will Sharpe (Director/Writer), Tom Kingsley (Director), Sarah Brocklehurst (Producer)
- CORIOLANUS – Ralph Fiennes (Director)
- SUBMARINE – Richard Ayoade (Director/Writer)
- TYRANNOSAUR – Paddy Considine (Director), Diarmid Scrimshaw (Producer)
Prediction: Coriolanus maybe
But it should be: Attack the Block
But it should be: Attack the Block
DOCUMENTARY
- GEORGE HARRISON: LIVING IN THE MATERIAL WORLD – Martin Scorsese
- PROJECT NIM – James Marsh, Simon Chinn
- SENNA – Asif Kapadia
Prediction: Project Nim (good god, the Academy blew it so bad by snubbing it)
But they might throw Scorsese a bone with the Harrison doc
But they might throw Scorsese a bone with the Harrison doc
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
- BRIDESMAIDS – Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig
- THE GUARD – John Michael McDonagh
- THE IRON LADY – Abi Morgan
- MIDNIGHT IN PARIS – Woody Allen
Prediction: Midnight in Paris
But I would die laughing if it was: The Iron Lady
And it might be: The Artist
But I would die laughing if it was: The Iron Lady
And it might be: The Artist
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE DESCENDANTS – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
- THE HELP – Tate Taylor
- THE IDES OF MARCH – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
- MONEYBALL – Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan
Prediction: Tinker Tailor
But it might be: Moneyball
But it might be: Moneyball
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- INCENDIES – Denis Villeneuve, Luc Déry, Kim McGraw
- PINA – Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
- POTICHE – François Ozon, Eric Altmayer, Nicolas Altmayer
- A SEPARATION – Asghar Farhadi
- THE SKIN I LIVE IN – Pedro Almodóvar, Agustin Almodóvar
Prediction: A Separation
ANIMATED FILM
- HE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Steven Spielberg
- ARTHUR CHRISTMAS – Sarah Smith
- RANGO – Gore Verbinski
Prediction: Rango
ORIGINAL MUSIC
- THE ARTIST – Ludovic Bource
- THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
- HUGO Howard – Shore
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Alberto Iglesias
- WAR HORSE – John Williams
Prediction: The Artist
It should be: Reznor/Ross
It should be: Reznor/Ross
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- THE ARTIST – Guillaume Schiffman
- THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Jeff Cronenweth
- HUGO – Robert Richardson
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Hoyte van Hoytema
- WAR HORSE – Janusz Kaminski
Prediction: Tinker Tailor
Might be: The Artist
Also could be: Hugo
EDITING
- THE ARTIST – Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
- DRIVE – Mat Newman
- HUGO – Thelma Schoonmaker
- SENNA – Gregers Sall, Chris King
- TINKER TAILOR SOLIDER – SPY Dino Jonsater
Prediction: The Artist
Should be: Hugo
Might be: Senna
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- THE ARTIST – Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
- HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan
- HUGO – Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana MacDonald
- WAR HORSE – Rick Carter, Lee Sandales
Prediction: Hugo
Might be: Tinker Tailor
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE ARTIST – Mark Bridges
- HUGO – Sandy Powell
- JANE EYRE – Michael O’Connor
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jill Taylor
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Jacqueline Durran
Prediction: My Week with Marilyn
Will probably be: The Artist
SOUND
- THE ARTIST – Nadine Muse, Gérard Lamps, Michael Krikorian
- HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – James Mather, Stuart Wilson, Stuart Hilliker, Mike Dowson, Adam Scrivener
- HUGO – Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
- TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – John Casali, Howard Bargroff, Doug Cooper, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley
- WAR HORSE – Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Richard Hymns
Prediction: Harry Potter
Might be: War Horse
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Joe Letteri
- HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler, David Vickery
- HUGO – Rob Legato, Ben Grossman, Joss Williams
- RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White
- WAR HORSE – Ben Morris, Neil Corbould
Prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Might be: Harry Potter
MAKE UP & HAIR
- THE ARTIST – Julie Hewett, Cydney Cornell
- HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin
- HUGO Morag – Ross, Jan Archibald
- THE IRON LADY – Marese Langan
- MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jenny Shircore
Prediction: The Iron Lady
That was fairly exhausting. ”It will all be over soon.”
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I think the most viable surprises at the BAFTAs, are Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh. I also wouldn’t rule out a Williams-upset at the Oscars, here are the 10 reasons why :
1. She won the most critics group Best Actress awards this season (10)…Streep won 4, Davis won 2.
2. She received all 4 big nominations (SAG-BAFTA-BFCA-HFPA),won a Golden Globe and is the most viable threat to upset Streep at the BAFTAs (she is also in a British-film, only a better-received one with more BAFTA nominations including Best British Film)…and just to be clear, if she pulls that off, she will suddenly have an excellent last-minute shot at winning…Cotillard-style
3. She ALSO has the Weinstein-machine in her corner. ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAzw4-jyc90 )
4. She has the babe-factor, something we should NOT underestimate.
5. She is ALSO considered overdue, this is her third nomination, second in a row.
6. Based on critics’ scores, she is in a better film than Streep AND Davis.
7. She is playing an AMERICAN (!) CINEMATIC (!) ICON…shouldn’t that hit closer to home than a British politician and a 60s era maid ?
8. She is playing a legendary actress who NEVER even received a nomination from the Academy…it could be their way of ‘awarding’ her.
9. The 50th anniversary of Marilyn Monroe’s death is this year (August 5).
10. If you look back at the Best Actress winners of the last 15 years or so, you will realize that – as weird as it sounds – she is around the perfect age to win an Oscar.
Bottom line : It will be Viola Davis…and if not her, Meryl Streep…BUT we should definitely NOT underestimate Michelle Williams…especially if BAFTA-voters still hate Thatcher enough to snub Meryl’s tour-de-force performance, and award Williams instead…a Golden Globe (comedy) and a BAFTA go a long way…just ask Marion Cotillard!
Here we go again. BAFTA awards always take place a week before the Oscar polls close,,mmm, it is obviously that BAFTA is trying to influence the Oscars and become part of this whole award season.
If ‘The Artist’ loses ONE big best picture award, it will be BAFTA…I can see them giving it to Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.
@Phantom: “Bottom line : It will be Viola Davis…and if not her, Meryl Streep…” Just for understanding (i´m not a native speaker): Do you mean at the Oscars?
There are people, who still hate Thatcher, but there are people too, who like her! And I think they can keep acting performance and reality apart. I hope you know what I mean.
I find the BAFTA’s fascinating. They tend to share the wealth a bit more and their acting categories are always unpredictable.
My predictions:
FILM – The Artist
BRITISH FILM – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
DIRECTOR – Michel Hazanicivus
ACTOR – Jean Dejardins
ACTRESS – Meryl Streep
SUPP. ACTOR – Kenneth Branagh
SUPP. ACTRESS – Octavia Spencer
ORIG. SCREEN – Midnight in Paris
ADAP. SCREEN – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
SCORE – The Artist
CINEMATOGRAPHY – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
PRODUCTION DES. – HP & The Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
MAKE UP HAIR – The Iron Lady
COSTUME – Hugo
SOUND – War Horse
VISUAL EFFECTS – HP & The Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
EDITING – The Artist
ANIMATED – Rango
Neither Williams or Davis (she’s got the least chance here) should take this away from Streep. She’s playing a British icon and is lauded for her performance, plus the film did better in the UK. It even got a Screenplay nomination, deservedly so. (You can laugh all you want Sasha but it’s clear that the film was just telling a story you didn’t want to hear).
Plus Streep didn’t win a BAFTA in a while I think. So yeah, I’ll implode if anyone other than her gets this.
Kudos to BAFTA for recognizing Fassbender and Drive.
wolf
Yes, sorry for not being clear : I meant that the BAFTA will probably go to Streep and in my opinion, the runner-up is Williams AND the Oscar will probably go to Davis, if not her, Streep, but Williams shouldn’t be underestimated, either.
@phantom: Ah, O.K. Thanks!
what does “I would plots if they go for Tilda Swinton” mean? I don’t understand the word “plots” in this context.
Thanks…
@ RobertlowercaseA
The BAFTAs already are a part of awards season. And I wouldn’t say that any other groups are any more a part of awards season either – even the guilds this year were largely ignored by the Academy.
I’ve got a feeling that Michelle Williams will win Best Actress, but I agree, Sasha, Meryl Streep is surely the frontrunner. And I’m also expecting Kenneth Branagh to win here; two major wins seems excessive for My Week with Marilyn, although BAFTA obviously loved the film, so it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.
Oh and just a shout out for Tyrannosaur. Out of all the nominated ones, it should actually win Best Debut. It’s visceral and rivetting with two exceptional peformances (Olivia Coleman was completely robbed out of a nomination, by her own people too…) It’s a toss up between Coriolanus or Tyrannosaur, both deserve it and I hope that one of them gets it.
For those who haven’t seen it, I strongly recommend it. It’s fantastic. Peter Mullan and Olivia Coleman especially are tremendous!
this has nothing to do with the BAFTAS, but check out this hilair funny or die starting Jean DuJardin….
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/6cddad07b7/jean-dujardin-s-villain-auditions?playlist=featured_videos
worth a chuckle!
Sorry – you know, plots should be spelled “plotz” — I will fix it. It just means “die”
“Well it’s Maggie Thatcher”
If Streep wins, it is because she delivered a phenomenal performance not because she is playing Maggie Thatcher.
If Streep wins, it is because she delivered a phenomenal performance not because she is playing Maggie Thatcher.
Never said otherwise. But okay Deena.
@Deena Jones’ wig: Couldn´t have said it better!
Love your picks, Sasha. Although I will add that ‘Senna’ was a huge hit in the UK, and considering it’s nominated for a second award, wouldn’t that be considered the front-runner for BAFTA? Interesting that none of these three are up for Oscar.
Yeah I don’t know why Sasha keeps underestimating Streep’s performance in this film. She must have REALLY hated everything about it, including Streep’s performance. It’s a head scratcher that’s for sure.
“plotz” = burst open with emotion, crack!
Dear friends! Wno can help me? I wonder what melody, what thing is playing on the beginning of the film The Hunter (2011) (during the first minute). Please, I’d be very grateful, if you help me
No matter how “bad” Iron Lady supposedly is, and no matter if it’s just nominated for Best Screenplay because it’s Thatcher – it’s STILL nominated for Best Screenplay! So there IS enough support out there for the film. Not everyone hates Iron Lady (or even think it just didn’t work).
“Never said otherwise. But okay Deena.”
That’s actually basically exactly what you said, Sasha.
Stop dumping on Deena.
Deena comes here begging to be dumped on every day. If she didn’t like it, she’d take the chip off her shoulder.
Deena’s hero: Mike.
Just in time for Valentine’s Day.
Awards Daily romance. How cute.
I Streep was playing a ficticious politician, it would be harder for her to win. That it’s Margaret Thatcher DOES give her an edge! Just like if Helen Mirren was playing a ficticious queen in The Queen, Streep or Dench would have won.
It ALWAYS helps playing a real person, so no matter how great Streep (always) is, don’t for a minute think she would be such a strong frontrunenr if it wasn’t Margaret Thatcher.
I’m the hugest Streep fan, but we shouldn’t be kidding ourselves. The greatest performance isn’t always enough. That’s why more than HALF of the Lead Oscars winners in this century won for playing real people.
Agree with the one who said that if Streep wins this one it will be because she made a great performance. British people rarely give an award to a “foreing”… unless they REALLY deserve it.
This is 1967.
Meryl Streep=Edith Evans
Rooney Mara=Faye Dunaway
Michelle Williams=Anne Bancroft
Glenn Close=Katharine Hepburn
Viola Davis=Audrey Hepburn
Paddym. BAFTA is not part of the Oscars, it wants to be part of them. The majiriry of BAFTA members should have awarded or recognized their own films in UK, like Ausrtralia or New Zealand in my opinion. They nominate 90 percent American films as if Hollywood is part of their industry. It is obvious that BAFTA wants to be part of the Hollywood bandwagon.
My predix for BAFTA
The Artist – Best Film
Hugo – Director
Tinker Tailor – Actor
Iron Lady – Actress
Beginners – Supp Actor
Drive – Supp Actress
Shame – Oustanding British Film
Midnight in Paris – Screenplay Orig
Tinker Tailor – Screenplay Adapted
Sel, BAFTA winners are more often non-British than British. It’s actually rare for more than one or two of the acting winners to be British.
@ Robertlowercasea
I see what you’re saying, but I don’t think you’ve seen what I was saying. BAFTA doesn’t want to be a part of Oscar, nor does it want to be a part of awards season any more than it is. It doesn’t need to try, it’s already there. Their desire to influence the Oscars remains obvious, but I prefer their approach – nominating international filmmaking rather than singling out British filmmaking, for which there are other awards.
Not so sure about that. In the past decade 5 british actors were awarded in the BAFTAS (and in the oscars… only 2). Wins like Jamie Bell over Russell Crowe… or the recent Colin Firth victory for “A Single Man” over Jeff Bridges said a lot about the BAFTAS and their sympathy towards their countrymen. I know british people (and its culture) very well, they are very parochial with their countrymen.
Sel, you may not be sure, but I am. The BAFTAs do tend to skew more British with their winners than the Oscars, understandably, but in the past ten years, 24 foreigners have won acting BAFTAs and 16 Brits. It’s a high percentage of Brits, but currently, it is better to not be British than to be British in the acting categories. Furthermore, in those ten years, not once have more than two Brits won acting BAFTAs in any one year.
I know British people and British culture very well too. I am British.
Scorsese is getting BAFTA’s highest honor this year. I think Hugo will win more than one award.
Jeff Bridges Oscar was in my op, a sentimental career Oscar – and a good one, but Colin Firth prevailing at BAFTA, not that i’ll ever know for sure, but feel it was recognising a brilliant performance – and his finest work up to that point. I don’t think it was parochial – Jamie Bell? Maybe.
@ daveinprogress
I think Colin Firth’s nationality probably did help him win over Jeff Bridges. For me, Firth gave the better performance, but the buzz was firmly on Bridges’ side heading into the BAFTAs. When he was losing other awards like the BFCA, SAG and Golden Globe, people had been considering the strength of his performance already. I doubt it was solely that which led him to win the BAFTA.
Still the percentage of brits winners is considerably higher than the percentage of the oscars. But I understand that you demand a more “british awards”. In my opinion they should have acting categories for international and british (like the Globes have the comedy/drama thing. Hahaha), in that way at least the british will not left empty handed any year
I don’t want a more British awards show, Sel. In fact, I’d rather the BAFTAs were even more international than they already are. Indeed, they’re probably the most international-skewing of all the major awards shows, but they seem somewhat stuck between honoring the Brits and influencing the Oscars, and in the clusterfuck of it all, some foreign contenders make it in.
Their desire to influence the Oscars remains obvious
Is it so obvious, though? Why?
Don’t the BAFTA’s think they are prestigious on their own? Do the BAFTAs need to worry about the Oscars in order to feel important? I think not.
Should we be asking another question: When did the BAFTAs become a single sentient entity? Are the BAFTAs like Skynet? A self-aware consciousness with needs and desires to affect the Oscars?
There’s not a secret meeting of BAFTA Illuminati who get together to plan their global awards domination, right? They’re just a few thousand individuals marking ballots in the privacy of their own homes.
Even on an individual basis, isn’t it highly unlikely that Helen Mirren sits down with her ballot and says to herself: “At last! My annual chance to influence the Oscars!” (though we know that’s what Ricky Gervais thinks, but he’s one of the few.)
Here’s another thing I find strange: Apparently every filmmaker in the UK has a mind of his own, and yet it’s assumed that Academy members are dumbfounded about how to approach their ballots unless the HFPA, BAFTA, and BFCA tell them what to do.
Everybody wants to be Svengali, hypnotizing Oscar voters to do our bidding. Zombie Academy members roaming the streets like 6000 clay Golems waiting for BAFTA to reanimate them.
Absurd, is what it is.
Why would every awards group want to “influence” the Oscars? To what end? Where’s the profit in it?
Moreover, where’s the kick? How is it any fun to exert such power over the Oscars if everybody assumes the AMPAS are a hoard of drooling nincompoops who can’t figure out who they like unless the friggen Broadcast Film Critics leads them by the nose-ring.
If YOU had an Oscar ballot would you need to wait to see what BAFTA did before you dared to pick up a pen and fill out your own favorites? Of course not.
Think about what you’re saying, folks. It’s silliness on a grand scale.
Go, Oldman, go.
I have a feeling that Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy will sweep the BAFTA’s. The film is British, it is based on a popular British novel, it has an incredible British ensemble cast, of all the films that are nominated Tinker Tailor is the highest grossing in the UK and the film received huge critical acclaim in the UK. The Artist might win but if not then Tinker, Tailor is a very likely winner.
One of the biggest obstacles working against Scorcese winning BAFTA director is, I think, the fact that Hugo was not nominated for Best Picture. Going back at least 20 years, I think there’s only been one case where a director won the BAFTA director award (Baz L, Romeo & Juliet) when his/her film was not also nominated for one of the best film awards (best film, best Brit film, or best foreign language film). Add to this that Hugo also did not get a screenplay nomination or any acting nominations…
Could Scorcese win director at BAFTA? Of course he could, but it just seems unlikely to me. I’m sensing some weak support for the film on the other side of the pond. I think Scorcese’s chances might actually be better with Oscar than BAFTA, although I don’t expect he will win either one.
I totally disagree with this that the BAFTA want to influence the Oscars. I think there`s being a confusion between BAFTA and BFCA, this one remains the biggest award which aim to influence the Oscars.
Remember: although The King`s Speech ruled the BAFTAs (and the british are obviously right to give their Best Film to a big british production… nobody can complain about that), they still gave Fincher Best Directing. The Academy (and the DGA) were the ones who thought Hooper should win. This pretty much proves the BAFTAs don`t want to influence the Oscars. What happens is that many voters are the same, many things in both awards are the same…
What`s really hard to explain is why AMPAS loves typical british films like King`s Speech and Shakespeare In Love and the BAFTA loves typical american films like The Help.
BAFTAs are great because they’re the only show before the Oscars to both have and televise all the same technical categories.
Also, it’s the first awards show before the Oscars where The Help and Midnight in Paris didn’t get many nominations.
FILM – The Artist
BRITISH FILM – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
DIRECTOR – Michel Hazanicivus
ACTOR – Jean Dujardin
ACTRESS – Viola Davis
SUPP. ACTOR – Christopher Plummer
SUPP. ACTRESS – Octavia Spencer
ORIG. SCREEN – The Artist (but I still think Woody Allen will win Oscar)
ADAP. SCREEN – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
SCORE – The Artist
CINEMATOGRAPHY – Hugo
PRODUCTION DES. – Hugo
MAKE UP HAIR – Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
COSTUME – Jane Eyre
SOUND – War Horse
VISUAL EFFECTS – Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Pt. 2
EDITING – The Artist
ANIMATED – Rango
BRITISH DEBUT – Tyrannosaur
The BAFTAs won’t be broadcast in the US, correct?
” The Academy (and the DGA) were the ones who thought Hooper should win. This pretty much proves the BAFTAs don`t want to influence the Oscars. What happens is that many voters are the same, many things in both awards are the same…”
Not true. I am talking about in general. Historically speaking, BAFTA has always nominated 95 percent of films that were produced in Hollywood. That phenomenon in itself is already an evidence that proves that BAFTA wants to be part of Hollywood. In terms of overlapping membership, it is just not true that there are many voters who have both memberships. Nobody can say exactly how many, some say 500, some say 1000. Nobody can confirm exactly what the numbers are. BAFTA is an organization not only wants to influence the Oscars, it also wants to be part of the Oscars, that is why their awards always take place a week before the Oscars. The majority of American films that get nodded every year by BAFTA is a proof of BAFTA’s attempt to jump on the American/Hollywood film industry wagon. They treat Hollywood as if it is their film industry, that is the sad part.
Paddy,
I do agree that the British voters of late have had Oscars at the back of their mind (albeit not a direct influence). The way the tabloids cover it has that flavour, of greater things to expect after London to Los Angeles.
The interconnectedness of the world, and the dominion of Rupert Murdoch in these shores.
Cin,
The BAFTAs are broadcast on BBC America, carried by a lot of cable networks (it’s possible to phone up your cable provider, have them connect you for a a couple of days, and then call again to cancel that channel on Monday if you have no other use for it.)
Time-Warner channel 117 in my area — broadcast at 8:00 p.m. ET — that’s a 4-hour delay, but it’s great to see anyway.
The ceremony is live at 9:00 pm GMT — that’s 4:00 pm ET. Unless somebody finds a stream online, we’ll be watching Twitter for instant updates to the site.
yeesh, maybe I’m the only person whose reason for following movie awards is NOT to hope everything connects to the Oscars.
I can recall the years when the BAFTAs came after the Oscars. It had the same sensation of standing around in the parking lot looking for a hookup after all the clubs closed.
It felt like a johnny-come-lately straggler event, because all the heat dissipated so quickly after the peak of glamour at the Oscars.
That’s what I meant when I joked about how it’s best to get the foreplay out of the way before the Big O.
Because the Oscars is truly the biggest Orgiastic Orgasm of Awards season — so the sole reason the BAFTAs moved the date to precede the Oscars is because everybody is tired of diddling around after the whole industry cums in our faces on Oscar night.
I ask you guys again: Why would BAFTA want to “influence” the Oscars? Why do they care to do that? What’s the point of trying to (even assuming they can exert influence — when in fact, they cannot.)
Why do we have to assume everybody in the world has influence over Oscar voters? Are they 6000 children who have no clue what to do with their ballots unless 40 other groups tell them 40 ways to do it?
Silly. In fact, it’s insulting.
Cin, BBC America is showing them at 8pm Sunday night (and again at 11:40)
Not the influence, the expectation of greater (i.e. Oscar) things to come, amidst media speculation rampant, and people queueing at the bookies hoping to make a killing in Oscar betting–the subject of jokes even amongst the BAFTAship.
I see what you mean now, Aubrey.
(You and I both have the same problem. We find strange ways to express ourselves and the simple message we want to convey can get fogged up behind the fancy phrasing.)
Why would BAFTA nominate films produced mostly in Hollywood?
It goes way back. It is the nomination process that indicates BAFTA wants to be part of the Hollywood glamour.
Again, there`s only one award during the awards season that clearly tries to foresee the Oscar result: the Critics Choice Awards.
And most people are doing a judgment based on the last 3 years. Take a look at all the BAFTA winners of Best Picture and compare to the Oscar winners. I don`t know the numbers exactly but I`d say not even half are the same.
And there`s an obvious reason why the Oscars are the last award and Ryan is totally right about this. The British Film Academy make a big television show (that`s definitely not cheap)… they NEED return. Are most people going to follow the awards season after the Oscars? Of course not. This is the same thing as the Oscars decided to handle the Best Picture trophy in the middle of the ceremony because everyone knows the winner. And leave to the finale the odd categories: the sounds, cinematography, editing, costume design, actor and actress. And I`m saying this will all the respect I have to the British Academy. They are just not hypocrites to put their show after the Oscar because the Oscar is the most waited, watched and is handled by the most powerful film industry in the world.
“Why do we have to assume everybody in the world has influence over Oscar voters?”
I think you misundstood my point. I totally agree with you. Oscar voters don’t really care about that BAFTA members think or vote. They don’t care about what critics have to say either. It is people like us who over analyze. We hear assumptions like “If so and so wins BAFTA, that’s it”.
I wasn’t saying everybody in the world has influence over Oscar voters. As a matter of fact. What I have been trying to say is that the non Oscar organisations always “TRY” to influence the Oscars. There is a difference between attempting to try to influence the Oscars and whether Oscar voters actually care about what non Oscar groups/organization thinks. The matching takes place is because Oscars and other groups come to the same conclusion. I totally agree with you about Oscar voters’ not being influenced by non Oscar groups, but I was talking about other groups(like BAFTA)that “ATTEMPT” to influence the Oscars.
“Again, there`s only one award during the awards season that clearly tries to foresee the Oscar result: the Critics Choice Awards.
And most people are doing a judgment based on the last 3 years. Take a look at all the BAFTA winners of Best Picture and compare to the Oscar winners. I don`t know the numbers exactly but I`d say not even half are the same.”
I am not doing a judgement based on the last three years. I am doing a judgement based on the history of BAFTA and its selection of films which you have ignored.
I am talking its attempt to nominated almost 100 percent of American films, actors, or writers.
As far as the attempt to influence the Oscars, it is just the same as BFCA. Just look at the nominations and categories, and the selection of films, all mostly from Hollywood.
You are missing my point here.
@ RobertlowcaseA
I understand your point. But… who do you think are the greatest english-language filmmakers alive? How many of them are British? Woody Allen, Scorsese, Spielberg, the Coens, Terrence Malick, David Fincher, Paul Thomas Anderson… Christopher Nolan is british, but all his films are American, Danny Boyle is british but half of their films are with an American cast…
And why the AMPAS chose to award a typical british production in one of the best years in the last 30, 40 years for american or mixed production films? The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Black Swan, Inception, Blue Valentine, True Grit, Winter`s Bone, The Fighter and 127 Hours (a mixed production… just like War Horse).
“I am not doing a judgement based on the last three years. I am doing a judgement based on the history of BAFTA and its selection of films which you have ignored.
I am talking its attempt to nominated almost 100 percent of American films, actors, or writers.“
I don`t get it.
Between 1986 and 2011, you know how many Americans have taken Best Actor at the BAFTA? 7
“And most people are doing a judgment based on the last 3 years. Take a look at all the BAFTA winners of Best Picture and compare to the Oscar winners. I don`t know the numbers exactly but I`d say not even half are the same.”
You are missing my point. I am talking about the nominations. BAFTA nominates mostly American films and their nominations always end up being nearly identical to AMPAS’s. I am not talking about the winning. BAFTA nominates American films, period. You can’t use the small and minor difference in terms of winners of both organizations and conclude that BAFTA is not trying to influence the Oscars. It wants to be part of Hollwyood glamour, that is why they nominate mostly American films and actors, the rest is just the guilt of the national pride upon jumping on the Hollywood bandwagon in pretending Hollywood is part of their film industry.
JP, now, you don’t get it is because you refuse to look at the general nomination. Now, you are backtracking the acting category?
Focus on the majority of their nominations. It is mostly American, not British.
“And why the AMPAS chose to award a typical british production in one of the best years in the last 30, 40 years for american or mixed production films? The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Black Swan, Inception, Blue Valentine, True Grit, Winter`s Bone, The Fighter and 127 Hours (a mixed production… just like War Horse).”
Those films you cited are all produced by the American companies that hire British directors or writers. Those films were still produced by the American studios. Yes, I agree with you that there are UK film professionals that are involved in American production, but overall, it is still American film industry that is in the dominant force. American productions also hired a lot of Canadians, Asians, and Europeans, and how come there are no organizations like “Canadian Academy Awards”, or “Asian Academy Awards”. They do have their Academy Awards, but they nominate their own films or films produced in their own country. BAFTA existence itself is already a proof that they want to be part of the Hollywood film industry, it is all about ego and being part of the most power film industry in the world.
But there`s a reason they nominate mostly American films. They nominate English-spoken films. Just like the AMPAS. But we all know which is the most powerful industry. And, as I asked, who do you think are the greatest english-language filmmakers alive?
You may be right about they wanting Hollywood`s glamour. But again, think about the filmmakers question I made. And the opposite is also true. Hollywood LOVES british glamour. There`s a reason why The King`s Speech won over that amount of great American productions, there`s a reason why Shekespeare In Love beat Saving Private Ryan, why The English Patient beat Fargo and Harvey is not the only one… he`s brilliant but not God… he doesn`t create people`s taste.
BAFTA is very similar to Taiwan’s Golden Horse Award. They nominate mostly films produced in HK, and give very little recognition to films produced in Taiwan. They have categories like “Best Taiwanese film”, just like BAFTA’s “Best British Film”. It is kind of sad as well in my opinion. Just like when Crouching Tiger got 10 Oscar nominations, and it is considered officially by AMPAS as a Taiwanese film. Immediately, Crouching Tiger got huge boost in Golden Horse Awards nominations, even Tim Squire, the American editor was nominated for best editing. It all comes to the same thing. The attempt to become part of something popular and prestigious.
“But there`s a reason they nominate mostly American films. They nominate English-spoken films. Just like the AMPAS. But we all know which is the most powerful industry. And, as I asked, who do you think are the greatest english-language filmmakers alive?”
The reason is because they want to be part of the most powerful film industry in the world. New Zealand, Australia, are also English speaking nations, how come they don’t nominate American films?(The Artist won big in Australia, but that is a rare example, just look at their past nominations)
Hollywood always loves British culture, and it extends to Americans as well, but what about the majority of Oscar winning films. How many of them are UK productions? It is still mostly American films that won the top prize, and films like “Shakespeare in Love”, “The King Speech”, are still under Weibstein’s wings. The subject matter is British, but the actual film production is not as UK as you think.
This Best British Film category I always found very weird. It has a different voting process as I learned from someone here in Awards Daily a couple of weeks ago. And the bizarre is that, for example The King`s Speech won British Film but Slumdog, Atonement and The Queen didn`t… and they all won Best Film.
It is all about ego in my opinion. It is all about wanting to be part of Hollywood, and at the same time, finding space to award something that is closer to them, like The King Speech.
There`s one category at the BAFTAS that`s absolutely better than the at the Oscars is Foreign Language Film. The Globes actually have a better foreign language film category than the Oscars too.
If Meryl Streep wins it’s because she did a wonderful performance. Better than other nominees, because if Viola Davis wins it’s because she is a great actress but of course we can’t deny the racial debt.
There’s little doubt that Hollywood admires British talent, and visa versa – i think it gets too dismissive to simplify an entire culture and amalgam of thousands of industry folk on both sides of the Atlantic, and say that they want what the other has. I have been following BAFTA since i was a boy (some 30 years) and following AMPAS some 35years. BAFTA used to be far more parochial than they are now. An example i remember most clearly was back in 1984 when Maggie Smith won Actress for a quaint and light British comedy called “A Private Function”, she won against Streep for “Silkwood”, Maclaine for “Terms of Endearment” and Helen Mirren for her Cannes winning “Cal”. Bizarre. Just Bizarre. Now at least they keep up and they nominate a spread of films and talent from all over. “The Lives of Others” was embraced in several major categories a couple of years ago.
It is impossible to assign a mindset to either group that comprises so many disparate voters. It was incredibly tellnig to me last year that Fincher prevailed over Hooper at BAFTA. That tells me that they have good taste. It would have been so easy (and expected) that they embrace their own. In rewarding the King’s Speech they actually honoured 2 Australians of the 3 Producers of that film. They also love to honour their own – every year brings proof of those existing values. AMPAS also (occasionally) has good taste – and rewards what it considers the best – i don’t believe there is a strong bias either way with either of the organisations. Sentiment prevails everywhere. The chance to reward Imelda Staunton or Carey Mulligan or Colin Firth is no more biased than the American counterparts – they were all nominated for both awards that year. We don’t know the numbers of how close any category ultimately is between winner and runner up. BAFTA have become more international in their choices overall, and i find them a far more credible awards body than some. They have their favourites, but they are a progressive body – if you look at the subjects of the nominated iflms, if not their choices.
JP, you raised something which we’re forgetting–the voting process in BAFTA, their voting procedure, correct me if I’m wrong, after nomination, to vote for winner, don’t the branches vote for their respective categories? Or is that only the technical categories?
That process is reversed of course in the Oscars which is why my 2 skypers too engrossed in their own fields sometimes ask me who they should vote for! And I never volunteer, just tell them to stick in the DVDs so lovingly sent to them.
One of the biggest obstacles working against Scorcese winning BAFTA director is, I think, the fact that Hugo was not nominated for Best Picture. Going back at least 20 years, I think there’s only been one case where a director won the BAFTA director award
You can’t really go back 20 years. You have to go back only since the year 2000. Before that, BAFTA held their awards after the Oscars and therefore didn’t really count as a precursor.
No matter how “bad” Iron Lady supposedly is, and no matter if it’s just nominated for Best Screenplay because it’s Thatcher – it’s STILL nominated for Best Screenplay! So there IS enough support out there for the film. Not everyone hates Iron Lady (or even think it just didn’t work).
Not only that but the truly terrible performance of Jim Broadbent buzzing around in the background like a fly also got nominated. The Iron Lady, save for Streep, is a complete and total disaster as a film. Sorry, but it has no redeeming qualities other than Streep’s performance.
Love your picks, Sasha. Although I will add that ‘Senna’ was a huge hit in the UK, and considering it’s nominated for a second award, wouldn’t that be considered the front-runner for BAFTA? Interesting that none of these three are up for Oscar.
Yeah, good point.
@Deena Jones’ wig: Couldn´t have said it better!
Not even going to read the comment that inspired this but how much you want to bet it has to do with Streep?
Watch the headlines in the weeks to come. Streep wins BAFTA for Best Lead Actress, she get a lifetime achievement in Berlin. Big headlines and enough steam to carry her to an Oscar victory for The Iron Lady. Trust me.
“Prediction: My Week with Marilyn
Will probably be: The Artist”
What’s the difference between “Prediction” and “Will probably be”?
@Paddy M “I know British people and British culture very well too. I am British.”
C’mon Paddy….. you know you’re Irish really!
Too bad Harry Potter’s last film wasn’t nominated for Outstanding British film
Dujardin, Streep, Plummer, & Spencer seem to be the likely winners, but it just doesn’t sit right with me. They will certainly throw a bone to an actual Brit, dont’cha think?
I think Streep and Spencer are set (with Williams being a strong possible alternative, but I will be shocked if anyone other than Streep wins this). God help me if Judi Dench wins for her “showing up to work” performance in My Week with Marilyn. I will throw up. I agree with Sasha that I would shit myself if Tilda wins. It would be so, so deserved. But that’s a pipe dream now.
I could see Branagh taking this from Plummer but I don’t think this will have any bearing on the Academy’s choice.
Best Actor will be really interesting. If not Jean Dujardin, I’d go with Sasha’s pick for Gary Oldman. If Dujardin wins, it will be hard to upset him for Oscar, I think.
Best Director definitely Michel Hazanavicius, but I’d pick Tomas Alfredson as the alternate.
Best Film will be The Artist, Best British Film will be Tinker Tailor, and I’m saying Best Debut will be Tyrannosaur, with Attack the Block as a spoiler. I’m saying Tinker Tailor also wins Adapted Screenplay, but I’m guessing The Artist upsets Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay. BAFTA didn’t seem to love the latter as much as AMPAS (wasn’t this its only nomination). I still think Woody will win the Oscar though.
Sclub. Harry Potter is not a British film.
Isn’t there something you can talk about besides Harry Potter? Gee
@Ryan
All I was trying to say was that Sasha completely contradicted herself, and it’d be nice if she’d own up to it, instead of just being a bully to someone who, in this case, has a valid point.
Bridget O’Connor recently passed over so to honor her for a job well done I think TTSS will win for adapted screenplay.
BP: the Artist
Director: Hazanavicius
Actor: Gary Oldman
Actress: Streep or Williams
Supporting actor: Branagh
Supporting actress: Spencer
British Film: TTSS
British Debut: Black Pond
Documentary: Senna
Original screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay: TTSS
Non English: A Separation
Animated film: Tintin
Original music: Artist
Cinematography: War Horse
Editing: Artist
Production: HP7.2
Costume: Jane Eyre
Sound: war horse
Special effects: HP7.2
Makeup: Iron Lady
Aubrey, the whole BAFTA membership votes for winners in Best Film, Best British Film, Documentary, Foreign Film, and the four Acting categories. All other categories’ winners are chosen by votes of the individual chapters.
Loving the intelligent debate. Coupla points:
Senna a lock for doc. Was the only doc on the Brit longlist.
I hate Iron lady like Sasha. Even Streep’s perf, which was a circus act, not proper acting. I’m afraid she’ll win though. But Olivia Colman was the “only good thing” about that film, not Streep. Desperately hoping my fellow Bafta members prove they have real independent taste and vote Swinton. Could happen.
Don’t count out Ramsay for director.
And some history. Hooper didn’t win Bafta because the Brits know him. He has a terrible reputation – cold, arrogant, unpleasant – crews hate him. Did you notice Colin Firth never directly thanked him? – just couldn’t bear to. Hooper’s failure to win bafta wasn’t about taste, it was about his personal reputation.
Y’know…the BAFTAs liked The Help more than I thought they would. They even liked the film more than the Oscars. So…I think Davis will beat Streep.
I too also think that Tinker Tailor will pick up a bunch of wins, incl. Adapted Screenplay and Gary Oldman.
But Tha Artist will get Best Picture.
Yeah, I have the feeling Meryl will loose BAFTA.
I’m trying hard to fight this feeling, but…. *sigh*
Although it’s probably her best shot in years, they could still jump on the Davis train or give it to Michelle Williams,
I don’t understimate her phantom, she still has the Globe+youth+beloved iconic role+Weinstein. If she wins the BAFTA, she becomes the threath for Davis.
But they also could give it to Swinton, a Brit.
If Meryl doesn’t win this time, she will win never again here.
Dujardin should win, period. And the Oscar too. I’ve never ever seen a performance like that. When I decided to watch the Artist, I knew nothing of this unknown French actor – and he left me spellbound.
I couldn’t take my eyes off his face, and went through a rollercoaster of emotions. I’m rooting like hell for him.
Berenice & Viola’s films are the only films that are nominated for Best film at BAFTA, and both with multiple nominations. Watch out for either of them. Just sayin…….
As a Brit it often frustrates me how bizarre BAFTA’s choices, and how little logic seems to dictate the spread. Remember Atonement taking just Best Film and Production Design, or The Pianist coming along at the end in 2002 and winning Best Film and Best Director. One thing that is finally changed this year is the voting for Best British Film which is no longer by jury but is instead by the entire voting body, so Tinker Tailor should easily collect that given its widespread support. Here’s how I think it will go, but with BAFTA you really just cannot ever know:
Film: The Artist (Thomas Langmann)
British Film: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Roby Slovo, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan)
Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer: Joe Cornish, writer/director (Attack the Block)
Directing: The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
Documentary: Senna (Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Manish Pandey)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
Adapted Screenplay: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan)
Film Not in the English Language: A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Animated Film: Rango (Gore Verbinski)
Leading Actor: Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Leading Actress: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Original Music: The Artist (Ludovic Bource)
Cinematography: The Artist (Guillaume Schiffman)
Editing: Senna (Gregers Sall and Chris King)
Production Design: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (Maria Djurkovic and Tatiana MacDonald)
Costume Design: Jane Eyre (Michael O’Connor)
Sound: War Horse (Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Richard Hymns)
Special Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler and David Vickery)
Make Up & Hair: The Iron lady (Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland and Marese Langan)
Short Animation: A Morning Stroll (Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe)
Short Film: Pitch Black Heist (John Maclean and Gerardine O’Flynn)
Rising Star Award: Adam Deacon
TALLY:
The Artist – 4
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – 3
The Iron Lady – 2
Senna – 2
1 – Attack the Block, Beginners, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, The Help, Jane Eyre, Midnight in Paris, A Morning Stroll, Pitch Black Heist, Rango, A Separation, Shame, War Horse
I think they might go for Tintin since it was a huge hit in Europe
@Sonja: You are not an optimistic person, right?
Ryan, you’re a good writer so why be vulgar?
“Dujardin should win, period. And the Oscar too. I’ve never ever seen a performance like that. ”
Why? It is about getting the emotion out of a character. Not saying Durardin didn’t. Clooney gave a really real and believable performance as well. It is not all about charming and smile. If you have not seen a performance like that, you have not seen anything yet.
@wolf
I once was…. Actually I am still thinking Meryl HAS to win this (she’s playing a damn famous BRIT for gawd’s sake!-she has won for playing a Brit 30 years ago), what makes me more and more afraid she’ll loose.
I was confident she might would win the Critics Choice-she didn’t. I was confident she has no chance for the Drama Globe-she won.
You understand my dilemma? *sigh*
I was only right she had no chance at the SAG. No one else had, really.
Thanks Byron, … but sorry, where was I vulgar? I say the f-word sometimes in normal conversation. In the comments I write in the same casual voice.
I restrain myself when I write for the main page. (I try restrain myself in the comments too, but this is just how I speak.)
(No need to show me what I said… I found it.)
I’m bad. Sorry.
@Sonja: I see! This year I´m really confused about the awards. And this year I have a better feeling that Streep can win. It´s somehow strange.
I happen to agree with Ryan’s assessment that BAFTA stands on it’s own. I don’t believe that they in any way want to be seen as an extended branch of AMPAS. They’ve always pretty much stood on their own and to insure that their films were not ignored during the award season they did create British catgories versus Universal.
I personally think Tinker Tailor is the one to watch at the BAFTA.
Best Film Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Best Director Alfredson for Tinker with a possibilty of Lynne Ramsay for Kevin.
Actor based on what’s been handed out already via critics my bet is it’s Fassbender with Oldman a possible upset. I don’t think Dujardin stands a chance. The British even though they may appear a bit more removed love gritty performances.
Actress wouldn’t surprise me if Swinton walked away with it and if she doesn’t it’ll be Streep.
Supp Actor hands down Plummer. Supp Actress Spencer. The only question in Supporting Actress is will the BAFTA members combine Mulligan’s turn in Shame along with Drive and then give her a boost. Doubt it but not entirely impossible.
British Film hands down Tinker.
Debut Film I have a feeling this is going to go to Paddy Considine for Tyranosaur.
Original Screenplay. Allen for Midnight. Adapted Tinker.
If we talk The Iron Lady isn’t a good film what happen with The Help then? Because I consider a bad movie and many people thinking it too.
Jim Broadbent did a good performance, please, Jonah Hill nominated? Come on! and Jessica Chastain por the help? and Octavia Spencer will win? please that is good taste
I think that its a coin toss between Dujardin and Goldman to Best Actor. Because Streep’s portrayal of Thatcher met with criticism, Williams and Davis will duke it out for Best Actress. Sup. Actor. will be Branagh, because he is playing Laurence Olivier, a British screen legend, and Sup. Actress seems tough, but it’s a between Spencer and Mulligan. But the Baftas have been known to surprise. We shall see tomorrow.
@wolf
Well, I don’t want to crush your hope.
I’ve just giving up mine.
I might be wrong of course, but I fear I’m not.
And I even don’t know why this gets me so much.
The world won’t end if Meryl doesn’t win. She’ll go on, so I have too.
@Sonja: Of course, the world won´t end, if Streep doesn´t win. But it gets on my nerves that they nominate her (very often!) and she loses and loses and loses (I mean the Oscar award)….
And you know what it means to stay up all night ( if it´s possible). It´s somehow exhausting.
But on the other hand, look at the actors or actresses, who did win an Oscar (Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Frances McDormand, Roberto Benigni, Adrien Brody etc.) where are they now?
I applaud Streep’s performance and think it deserved of the BAFTA, but think she wouldn’t stand a chance in this category against Davis or Williams if her role were not Thatcher. I predict her for the win, regardless.
Jeff, what do you mean “if her role were not Tatcher”?
Do you think that if she is paying an “Average Joe” she will not made an award deserving performance? Or do you mean that if Williams and Davis play Tatcher they will have more chances to win the BAFTA than Streep with an “Average Joe” character?
To each their own. I think Streep will have chances to win anyway beacuse she always squeezes her works. But of course I think that the complexity of the role has much to do with being awarded… but precisely, a complex role requires a very hardworking and talented performance.
“Jeff, what do you mean “if her role were not Tatcher”?”
I mean I think that it’s a distinct advantage (for BAFTA awards) to be British or be playing a British character. I’m not disputing that Streep was fantastic. I believe that the quality of her performance would more easily be overlooked if she had not been playing a British icon. I don’t think this is a particularly new theory.
Personal note…reading people’s comments are exhausting…I don’t understand the snark. If you don’t like the reading material don’t read it. Not sure why I have to say that every time I post on here.
As much as I wish she was wrong…Sasha is so right. this year is pretty much over. Once again all shock and surprise is most likely gone from this awards season. Its funny because some years you can just feel when a surprise win is coming. Marcia Gay Harden, Crash, Alan Arkin. This year nothing like that is going to happen. And if it does happen anywhere I bet it will be in the screenplay awards.
But the BAFTA group is a crazy unpredictable bunch. Remember Meryl didn’t win the BAFTA for Sophie’s Choice.
The Help is one of the movie that didn’t deserve the Oscar Picture nomination. As Extremely Loud and Incredible Close and War Horse.
Well The Help got the Best Picture nomination. It’s recorded in history books! GO, HELP!!!!
I would love it if the BAFTA would do what the Academy didn’t: show some love for Shame, Drive and We Need to Talk About Kevin. Fassbender deserves so much to win and I wouldn’t be surprised, since this is the only major award left that he could win. He probably won’t though, which is a shame
I would rule Clooney out in the Best Actor category, it will either be Dujardin or Oldman. Also, I don’t see how TYRANNOSAUR could lose Best debut, it was terrific.
Here are my predictions
. I would be quite shocked if Viola would have the edge and If Tilda would somehow win, it’ll be crazy good, since she was the best actress of 2011, hands down.
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER – Tyrannosaur
1) BEST FILM: The Artist (Could be TTSS also, but I guess they will be pleased with the award for Best British Film)
2) DIRECTOR: Hazanavicious, although it would be pretty awesome if Refn would win this
3) LEADING ACTOR: I’m torn between Oldman, Fassy and Dujardin, but it will probably be Dujardin.
4) LEADING ACTRESS: I think that Meryl takes this, Viola will have to conform with winning the Oscar
5) SUPPORTING ACTOR – It’ll be between Plummer and Branagh, but I have the feeling that they will award it to Branagh so that My Week With Marylin doesn’t go home empty handed.
6) SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Octavia Spencer
7) OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM – No way TTSS is losing this, right?
9) DOCUMENTARY – Senna
10) ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – not so sure about Midnight in Paris, sI’d rather go with The Artist
11) ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – TTSS
12) FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE – A Separation, but don’t be surprised if The Skin I Live In gets it.
13) ANIMATED FILM – I’m more inclined to say Tintin than Rango
14) ORIGINAL MUSIC – The Artist
15) CINEMATOGRAPHY – TTSS
16) EDITING: Senna
17) PRODUCTION DESIGN: Hugo
18) COSTUME DESIGN: This one is tough, but I will actually go with Jane Eyre
19) SOUND: Hugo
20) SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
21) MAKE UP & HAIR: Probably The Iron Lady, but could be Harry Potter.
What would make these awards exciting would be if the winners would be those who either were snubbed by the AMPAS (Fassy
) or those who don’t have too much chances of winning the Oscar, despite being nominated.
@wolf
Of course I know what it feels like seeing Meryl loosing again. I don’t even know why I still watch it. I must be really masochistic.
Although this time would still feel much less painful than last time.
Even though Katherine Hepburn has won 4 times, she had to wait 34 years (!!) to win her SECOND Oscar! Unbelievable! oO”
And yes, an Oscar can mean a huge career boost, but also could become a career killer at worst and not just a few actresses/actors had gone that way. There are so many…. Kidman and Portman are recently nominated for a Razzie.
*lol* No matter how bad reviewed Meryl’s movies were…. this is something she’d NEVER archieved. Yet.
(well, never say “never”, but I strongly doubt it)
Man, this day is just terrible. The death of Whitney and my feeling Meryl will loose BAFTA.
Ugh, I can’t WAIT for this day to be finally over!