Can Any Film Upset the Artist? And Leaders in Other Categories
It was evident by the lack of director nominees at this year’s Santa Barbara International Film Festival’s Directors Panel (like, Hazanavicius was the only one there) that most people think this Best Picture/Best Director race is done. So the questions now remain. And the first one is can any film beat The Artist for Best Picture?
The truth is that there are three but those three will divide the non-Artist vote, just like last year. In the end, I don’t think anyone is going to complain about that film winning Best Picture, which is probably what makes Oscars 2011 one of the most boring on record. It’s right up there with Slumdog Millionaire. Once that movie won the SAG ensemble, it was just a matter of waiting things out until the bitter end, when the question wasn’t whether it was going to win, but how many Oscars it would win in the end.
There isn’t anything, though, that can derail this train. The Descendants and Hugo still have the best shot at it. But each is its own problem. But just how many Oscar categories feel locked right now?
Best Picture – The Artist
Best Visual Effects – Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Art Direction – Hugo
Best Cinematography – Tree of Life (but another could win here)
Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer, The Help
Open ended:
Best Director – most likely Hazanavicius but I feel a strong Scorsese push.
Best Actress – Meryl Streep or Viola Davis
Best Actor – George Clooney or Jean DuJardin or Brad Pitt or Demian Bichir or Gary Oldman
Best Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer or Max Von Sydow
Best Adapted Screenplay – Moneyball or the Descendants
Best Original Screenplay – Midnight in Paris or The Artist”
Animated feature – Rango or a surprise
Editing – Hugo or The Artist or Dragon Tattoo
Sound – open
Sound Editing – open
Foreign Language film – open but A Separation and In Darkness appear to be strongest
Doc feature – no clue since the year’s two best docs, Project Nim and Buck were shut out.
The shorts – open
Though you can hear the long panning echo of Oscar’s Most Boring Year, there are still some races left to run.
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Short answer: no. With the (possible) exception of Supporting Actress and cinematography, The Artist will clean up at the oscars.
As for Visual Effects, I dont feel its locked at all, even though I am rooting for Apes
T.
Are we going to keep getting these Artist’ posts until the 26th? I mean how much analysis can you do about the best picture race?
I love how the Best Actor category is still wide open. Remember the Nicholson vs. Day Lewis battle? Remember who won that one? I smell a surprise.
As for your list of locks and near locks – you forgot Best Original Score and “The Artist” has that one in the bag.
Deena Jones, that’s a fair question, but it is an Oscar site’s duty to try. The answer to today’s question is: no. If it’s posed in a different way 2 days from now, the answer will be: no. I like that this article doesn’t dwell on it though – it instead highlights the races still worth mentioning. I had no idea Best Actor was so up in the air! My sense is that they will give it to Dujardin: they have a mandate to prove, with hardware, that they really DID love the film this time (unlike last year when they supposedly loved TKS but gave it no techs or artistry, for a total of only 4 awards). I think that THEY think that Clooney knows they still love him, if that makes any sense, so they will bow to him but give the award to the Frenchman. The mood could change of course.
Sacha, Plummer IS winning; Von Sydow isn’t even a threat. And I think “Tree of Life” is far from a lock for best cinematography.
Pina for doc.
Bichir’s not going anywhere near the podium on Oscar night, unfortunately. Any of the other four could take the cake and it wouldn’t be THAT surprising, but Bichir…nah.
Animated is going to Rango, no doubt.
VFX isn’t locked, I don’t think; I have a feeling the Academy may end up plumbing for HPDH7.2. I’m neutral in this race, since RotPotA did a great job of…everything, but there’s certainly sentimental value in awarding Potter the Oscar.
Art Direction is another place where Potter MAY surprise, so I don’t think it’s as locked as you claim it is. Although frankly, I’d rather Hugo here.
I can’t imagine Plummer losing to Von Sydow. I know Plummer is not one of the most liked people around, but it’s too perfectly lined up for him to lose.
I can see Moneyball winning Editing.
And I’m not too sure about The Artist sweeping. The King’s Speech lost everything outside of the majors and that was in color. The Artist could very well come away with only 3. And even 2 isn’t out of the question if Scorsese can win or if it was up to Kim Novak.
Part of my naive thinking is that THE TREE OF LIFE is loved by a lot of members of the Academy and view it as being a true “Director’s Film” and that as a result – in a total shock – Malick would be a stunning winner. But in the end – considering he has really won no other awards – that probably will never, ever happen and it will go to Hazanavicius who deserves it as well.
Yeah, Supporting Actor is locked. The same with Animated Feature and probably Foreign Language Film (although can this category really be locked?). Best Director should go to Hazanavicius as well. In my opinion, the big open categories are Screenplays (although it could easily go to The Artist and The Descendants) and the Lead Acting ones (where I think Best Actor is between Dujardin and Clooney. Bichir and Oldman have no chsnce).
The 4 acting wins from the SAG awards seem to be all locks, Picutre, Director,and Cinematography seem to be the locks at this point. The rest are just coin tosses.
In the end, I don’t think anyone is going to complain about that film winning Best Picture
Ehem. *waves* It shouldn’t win. It will but it shouldn’t. HUGO is so much better than the other nominees. But even THE DESCENDANTS is better than THE ARTIST. Maybe even THE HELP. The only one I haven’t seen is EL&IC.
I hated the SLUMDOG year, so this repeat is just wonderful. The Academy had a chance with it’s new voting system but I guess they just can’t change.
From here on out I’m going to be rooting for Gary Oldman and Max Von Sydow. I know Plummer has it sewn up but still, if someone is more overdue than him, it’s Von Sydow. Not that Nolte is getting any younger either.
Are we going to keep getting these Artist’ posts until the 26th? I mean how much analysis can you do about the best picture race?
Give me a break here. Why not just keep the Art Directors Guild winners up until Feb 26 instead?
Score: Hugo
I think The Artist and Hugo are the two most popular films (especially since The Descendants did not win a SAG) and will split the toss-up categories.
I also think Scorsese/Richardson’s success with 3D will pull the cinematography, much like Leslie’s FotR win because of his success with scale in that film. In other words, films with great art direction combined with technical innovation. Pretty pictures plus tech.
As for your list of locks and near locks – you forgot Best Original Score and “The Artist” has that one in the bag.
Yep. You’re right.
Sacha, Plummer IS winning; Von Sydow isn’t even a threat.
I disagree. One has a Best Picture nomination, the other doesn’t. Automatically Von Sydow, even if he weren’t Von Sydow, which he is, he would be a threat.
From here on out I’m going to be rooting for Gary Oldman and Max Von Sydow.
Hahaha. Wouldn’t that shake things up? I dunno. I feel as you do. Trying to find anything exciting to talk about. Oh, I know, how about I take requests. Anyone have a request of a column I should write? Me or Ryan?
I kinda agree with Deena Jone’s Wig here. Lets start predicting next years potential candidates. Or at least make a very large list of the film you are looking forward to this year Sasha
I still think THE HELP is going to upset.
Since we are in the doldrums of year, you should keep writing the Oscar Flashback articles Sasha. They are really great.
If Meryl Streep wins the Bafta does it matter in terms of winning the Oscar or does Viola Davis win the Oscar anyway? I am reminded of Marion Cotillard winning the Bafta and then winning the Oscar despite losing Sag.
It will be fun if Gary Oldman wins the Bafta.
@Sasha
“Trying to find anything exciting to talk about. Oh, I know, how about I take requests. Anyone have a request of a column I should write? Me or Ryan?”
Try Best Actor. That’s the only race that seems to be alive at this point. No matter wich way the BAFTA goes it’s still going to be open to some point. If Dujardin scores BAFTA he’s the front runner, but still it’s an european awarded by the european, so Clooney is still in the game (but it’s down to Dujardin and Clooney). If Oldman scores BAFTA (and I hope he will) shit just got real and I’m probably going to have a heart attack when I’ll see Natalie Portman open the envelope. Pitt or Fassbender scores BAFTA – open race, but not much chances for Oldman in the oscar race, so still it’s pretty much about Dujardin and Clooney. Clooney scores BAFTA – he’s the front runner and probably wins. That’s the dullest choice, but I don’t see Clooney winning BAFTA. The best thing that can happen is Oldman winning in the UK and finally, after a very very long time, we’ll have a real head to head race. That’s a thing I’m really looking forward to, because in I don’t even remember the last time anyone winning here who wasn’t a sho-in in december. Fingers crossed Gary, BAFTA Oscar and all.
Rise of the Planet of the Apes is no way a lock for visual effects. It’s likely going to be Harry Potter. And I think Dujardin will win.
I don’ think this year is boring at all.
There are so many fine acting performances in films this year. BUT, it is unusual that three of the major contenders (Hugo, The Artist, and The Descendants) have ONLY 3 acting nominees among them.
It has been the case in previous years that the Best Film nominees are filled with acting nominations. That makes this year one of the more peculiar ones (sorry, Sasha, that makes it not boring to me at all), and certainly less predictable, with room for surprises. The Best Actor field seems to be the most wide open.
My dream is that Natalie Portman opens that envelope and announces, “And the Oscar goes to . . . GARY OLDMAN for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”. Because the guy really deserves it. His is the most subtle, most surprisingly restrained performance of the year, but the character he creates on-screen is truly unforgettable.
AMPAS – please give this guy any Oscar and redeem yourselves.
Just an aside – I saw “The Descendants” yesterday. Not impressed. Clooeny and Woodley were the best things about it. Definitely not “best picture” quality in my opinion. And it isn’t even Clooney’s best performance this year (he was much better in his supporting role in “The Ides of March”).
Boring year? Naw. Not with films like “Drive”, “Take Shelter”, “The Tree of Life”, “Harry Potter:Pt 2″, “Anonymous”, “My Week With Marilyn”, “Hugo”, “The Help”, etc. I think it is one of the more eclectic, varied years in films in a long time. And many of the categories are up for grabs for Oscars, which makes it more exciting for Oscar watchers like myself. “It ain’t over till it’s over” folks. AMPAS sometimes likes to surprise us. I hope it’s Gary Oldman’s name for Best Actor that does it this year.
Why are people suddenly assuming that von Sydow is a contender? He wasn’t nominated by SAG, he wasn’t even in the conversation until the Oscar nominations. I think Kenneth Branagh stands a better chance.
How many docs have you seen this year, Sasha?
SASHA have you seen in darkness and a separation or is it just open because both got rave reviews??????????
i haven’t seen in darkness so i wanted to know if it is as good as a separation and if it could win.
Nobody is going to watch Max Von Sydow’s good but small performance in a movie that’s a box office flop and vote for it over Christopher Plummer. It just doesn’t seem possible. People will already be voting for a film with no talking for Best Picture; I doubt they’ll extend their love of muteness to additional categories.
If ‘Extremely Loud’ stood any chance of winning Best Picture, then that would certainly be different. But a film with two nominations is not going to be building any sort of momentum. If anything, given the outrage of it receiving any nominations, I think being from that film subtracts from Max’s chances.
The apple cart will be overturned in one category this year, but I don’t think it’s this one.
I still think that Oldman will win. I am just feeling it. Actress is Davis or Streep (no-one else will spoil), Supporting categories go to the usual suspects.
What is Billy Crystal up to? I saw a rehearsal video of him from a week ago, but that’s all. We should discuss this guy and possible jokes or whatever. Someone mentioned that he will joke about Jessica Chastain and the amount of roles she had in 2011. I think the opening video must be b&w and silent – in parts. Does he still have singing in him? It’s been 8 years, and he’s not that young anymore.
I think we can call Foreign Language too; A SEPARATION is a lock here.
Re: Best Supporting Actor– I do believe Plummer starting losing momentum ever since Von Sydow’s name came out of that envelope. It will be interesting to see. My money is still on Plummer though.
Nobody seems to care for Harry Potter!
It’s the final chapter of a saga which has not earned a single statuette!
Isn’t it time for it?
Especially with the ADG win, I don’t believe Hugo is a lock at all – after all, Dante Ferretti won recently for The Aviator & Sweeney Todd, while Stuart Craig’s last win was for The English Patient in 1997.
For me Makeup is a lock for Potter. No way in hell Albert Nobbs or The Iron Lady were better.
Sasha: Only disagreement is with animated, which I think Rango is locked for.
Makeup seems to be a “lean Potter.”
Actress: lean Viola, could be Meryl
Supp. Actor: Strong Plummer, could be Von Snydow
Actor: lean Dujardin, could be Clooney
Director: Strong Hazanavicius, could be Scorcese
Foreign Language: Strong Iran, could be Israel
Screenplay seems almost a lock for the Artist to me at this point.
They love the screenplay and Best Picture awards going hand in hand
“Foreign Language: Strong Iran, could be Israel.”
Politically, that would be the worst possible country to spoil Iran’s “sure-win”.
I have a problem with Harry Potter. I don’t think it’s the best in any of the categories it is nominated in, but Academy might want to give it something. Where?
@Edward Douglas
“Why are people suddenly assuming that von Sydow is a contender?”
The BP nod is very meaningful. He and Jonah Hill are the only two nominated for a BP contender, and let’s be honest – Hill is the weakest one in the line-up. The question is – if EL&IC is worthy of a BP nod, who nominate only Von Sydov? Why not Daldry? Why not screenplay? It’s obvious that Von Sydov is the one generating buzz for the picture in the eyes of the AMPAS. Beginners has no Screenplay nod or even an editing nod (which IMHO it very well deserved). Don’t get me wrong, I still think Plummer is the frontrunner and will probably win, but Von Sydov with his surprise nom (over Brooks for goodness sake) poses a real threat.
“Hahaha. Wouldn’t that shake things up? I dunno. I feel as you do. Trying to find anything exciting to talk about. Oh, I know, how about I take requests. Anyone have a request of a column I should write? Me or Ryan?”
Maybe one in which you try to predict the 2011 Razzie-nominees????? As in something very awards-related (your field of expertise) but miles away from the Oscars (so that you have a little distraction from them)……
Locks: best picture, best director (Hazanavicius obviously will win here), best supporting actor (Plummer – for sure) and best supporting actress (Spencer). And that’s all. “The Tree of Life” surely is not a lock in best cinematography – I’d rather see HUGO or THE ARTIST winning here. RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES should win best visual effects but I think that they will prefer HUGO. Best art direction: IMO it’s HUGO vs. POTTER. And I’m pretty sure that Davis will win best actress. Adapted screenplay: it’s THE DESCENDANTS vs. HUGO rather than MONEYBALL vs. THE DESCENDANTS. Best actor: Bichir and Oldman have no chance at all, Pitt – a little, but I think it’s Clooney vs. Dujardin.
Actor: Oldman
Actress: Hopefully Swinton..but wait she is not nominated ;(
Supp. actor: Plummer!
Supp. actress: Janet McTeer
Hugo better than the Artist? I dont think so
If “boring” means an excellent, broadly-liked film wins Best Picture, then give me boring. CRASH’s Best Picture win was not boring. Let’s be careful what we wish for.
One hesitancy I have about calling a win a done deal, cased closed, weeks (or months) in advance is the same paranoid trepidation I’m always wailing about every few days: Any early category lockdown becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy — and there’s a good reason why.
For busy working AMPAS members with packed social schedules and demanding careers it’s just plain impossible to see every worthy contender (and especially hard to see some of them twice, as many require before their true depth emerges). For other [insert "older"] retired, less in-touch, tired or (let’s say it:) lazy or uninitiated Academy members — some may see only a dozen movies per year. (and if you’re Ernest Borgnine, none of those can have a a whiff of The Gay about them).
So Academy members have to use some sort of filtering system to narrow down their stack of 60 screeners to a realistic 20 (or 10). The voters listen to critics, the keep an eye on precursors, and most of them are well tuned-in to the echo chamber. The echo chamber that movie writers and Oscarologists help create — and the consensus we try to honestly report, and thus sustain.
That’s the system that’s been installed for decades, and now we’re part of it.
So I’m not kidding — this makes me sad — I sincerely believe that hundreds and hundreds of Academy members chose their Must See list of movies simply by listening to what they hear about movies second- or third-hand. Some actor’s actor buddy talks about what they read in West Coast Newspaper A or East Coast Magazine B, and they talk about the buzz generated on one web site or another.
So for the actors, editors, and Joes the Soundmen who can’t see all the best movies of the year — for one of a dozen good reasons (or a dozen other shitty reasons) — they all end up with the same identical stack of 10 movies that everybody watches. They watch a film that’s a frontrunner and so long as there’s nothing too odious about it (or too gay, or too anal-rapey, or too full-frontal Fassy)… they’re ok with it.
…then they shrug and say, “Sure, why not? Looks like the buzz I’m hearing is justified. Where’s that ballot? tick, tick tick, 5 minutes, done. Call the courier. My obligation is done. Makes it official!”
So when we say The Artist is winning Best Picture since December (or hell, since Cannes, apparently, fock!) then sure enough, it does. Because 50% of the AMPAS membership never even saw Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and even less ever saw We Need to Talk About Kevin.
And let’s face it, even if they did see the more daring films, 50% of the voters would know what the professional Oscarologists and casual blog visitor knew immediately too — the daring movies aren’t “Oscar movies.” NOKD (Not Our Kind, Dear). We’re lucky they’re even BAFTA movies. We have to settle for most of the really interesting movies of the year being AFI movies and Film Comment movies. And thank god those groups exist.
The think-out-the-box movies, the listen-outside-the-bubble movies require actually living outside the boxes and bubbles. And I fear that many Academy members do not, don’t feel they need to, and don’t want to. The bubble and box are so comforting, reassuring, traditional and “safe.” So damn predictable and too often dead boring.
We wonder why we end up with a year whittled down to a dozen bland homogenized offerings — and 2 or 3 hopeful masterpieces, to cling to in the unlikely event of the rare upset.
It’s partly because we’re really quite good at predicting what 10 movies the Academy will be able to swallow. The movies with smooth edges and sugar-coatings. Nothing they need to chew on, no bitter pills to gulp down.
So we single those movies out in November — and by February 50% of the Academy has done their job: they’ve chosen the best of the year! … which boils down to the best of the 10 movies the system has already told them are the only 10 they need to consider.
Whoever gave a shout out for Sasha to keep writing her awesome Oscar flashback articles, I agree. Truly fascinating pieces.
I am trying to push for a piece on BEST ACTOR 1986 (or 1987 Oscars, how you look at it) of Bob Hoskins vs. Paul Newman. Amazing how Hoskins won every major acting award except the Oscar to my beloved Paul Newman who clearly was getting it as a Lifetime Achievement Oscar (which he won the year before). Even I gotta admit, they got it wrong big time.
“I know Plummer is not one of the most liked people around”
— Why not? The man is a legend. You may not care for him personally, but you gotta give the guy props for a pretty solid career, more or less.
The movies with smooth edges and sugar-coatings. Nothing they need to chew, no bitter pills to gulp down.
I know it seems like I’m going out of my way to be contrary, but this is just. Not. True.
Best Picture nominees from the last six years include:
THE DEPARTED
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
THE HURT LOCKER
PRECIOUS
BLACK SWAN
127 HOURS
WINTER’S BONE
THE TREE OF LIFE
And three of those were winners! The notion that AMPAS exclusively prefers soft, huggable movies is so obviously false that I’m kind of embarrassed to find myself arguing against it at any length. This shouldn’t be necessary. Why do we continue to repeat these narratives that aren’t true? What’s the benefit?
A Separation had Foreign locked up completely.
I’m glad you mentioned von Sydow. Was I the only one who heard the audience cheering when they announced his nomination?
GO SCORSESE GO! HE WILL WINN BEST DIRECTOR!
“The notion that AMPAS exclusively prefers soft, huggable movies is so obviously false”
What about Forrest Gump? Titanic? Shakespeare in Love? A Beautiful Mind? The King’s Speech? The Artist? Just these 6 examples are 6 too many
@Marcus
I still think THE HELP is going to upset.
It would really be an UPSET…the last time a film won best picture without a screenplay or directing nomination was Grand Hotel in 1932….it is therefore highly unlikely
THE DEPARTED
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
THE HURT LOCKER
PRECIOUS
BLACK SWAN
127 HOURS
WINTER’S BONE
THE TREE OF LIFE
Those movies all came certified with various Seals of Approval and each had their own reasons to rise to the MUST SEE list.
there will always be 20% of the Academy who are in touch and open-minded enough to recognize such creamy cream-of-the-crop when it bubbles to the top. 20% is all it takes. It’s a knife-edge tipping point that can tip either way. Sometimes we get lucky.
Gentle Benj, Obviously, They get it right sometimes. Obviously. If they didn’t ever make a good choice over the past 84 years, why would Sasha or me or you waste our time hoping they might someday make another awesome decision.
Besides. Do Not Kid Yourself. Don’t be deluded into thinking 6000 Academy members all saw Precious and Winter’s Bone. I’ll bet $20 that 1000 voters didn’t watch The Tree of Life.
That’s my point. And that’s why it’s impossible that it will win.
Gentle Benj, it is easier to nominate a film when you know it will not win. Also, the “uncomfortable” ones that have won in the past 5-6 years had other narratives attached to their winning.
@Emil “I’m glad you mentioned von Sydow. Was I the only one who heard the audience cheering when they announced his nomination?”
I definitely noticed that as well. There was also heavy cheering when EL&IC was announced as a BP nominee. Prevalence of studio members in the audience perhaps?
They also cheered for Annette Bening but she lost to Portman. Don’t get ahead of yourselves guys.
I still think Pitt will win Best Actor. Maybe by some sort of split between Clooney and Dujardin. Moneyball needs to get something, and it would be Pitt’s first Oscar, so great opportunity. He’s actually deserving of it. In a perfect world, Moneyball would be a Best Picture contender, but that doesn’t look possible this year.
Agree with all who said there are two other locks
:
Plummer and A Separation.
I think this could be a year when we see a Director/Picture split; Hazanavicius is no one in Hollywood. I can see Scorsese or (please!!!) Malick getting thru here on artistic merit, while people’s hearts go to The Artist for Picture.
Actor may be up in the air but I don’t see Pitt or Oldman winning. Tinker Tailor was one of my favourite pics of the year, but I think this remains a battle between the charming but not exactly acting Dujardin, the charming and finally acting Clooney, and Bechir, who could win over the hearts of Academy members.
I hope Midnight in Paris pulls out a Best Original Script. THe Artist has it charms but a layered story ain’t one of them.
And if you guys are seriously taking requests, it might be cool to set up a weekly Oscar poll, where a past category can be voted on and discussed, like Best Actor from 1975 or Best Picture from 1997. I dunno, Sasha and Ryan have come up with great stuff despite the lackluster race, so I’m not too concerned
I’ll bet $20 that 1000 voters didn’t watch The Tree of Life.
That’s my point. And that’s why it’s impossible that it will win.
Gentle Benj.
This theory has been tested, my friend. Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis were the unwitting guinea pigs.
They let the cat right out of the bag. They swore they would NOT watch Brokeback Mountain. Do you think they are the only two Academy who felt that way? Or just the only two who were ignorant enough to boast about it as something to be proud of?
Nobody is going to vote for the movies they don’t watch. That’s my point. That’s why Tilda Swinton never gets nominated unless she happens to do a mainstrean movie.
Nobody in the Academy ever SAW Juila or I Am Love. Half of them never saw We Need to Talk About Kevin either.
If you think otherwise, you must think all the Academy members are the hot ones we see on the red carpet.
Dude, there are Academy members who wouldn’t watch Precious if you clamped their eyelids open. 20% of the voters can get it nominated. And the rest of them vote for Gabby Sidibe because she was great on Jay Leno.
Bichir and Oldman don’t have a shot… you can change the best actor category
I changed my predictions a little, but i think right now it’s down to this:
PICTURE & DIRECTOR: The Artist slightly ahead over HUGO (Slightly)
ACTOR: 33% Clooney, 32% Dujardin, 31% Pitt, 4% Oldman, 1% Bichir
ACTRESS: I really don’t Know: Davis is supporting, Streep is in the worst rated film of the field… 30% Davis, 25% Streep, 25% Williams, 15% Close, 5% Mara
SUPP.ACTOR: I agree with Sasha, It’s Plummer VS. Von Sydow, Plummer slightly favourite… But I’d be very happy if it were Von Sydow!
SUPP.ACTRESS: here I think Spencer is a lock, since there is not a real, single alternative… All the others have a shot, but they’ll split votes…
ORIGINAL SCRIPT: 55% Allen, 35% Artist, 10% the other three
ADAPTED SCRIPT: The Descendants VS. Hugo VS. Moneyball… I can’t really choose.
Maybe I’m the only one, and I know Sasha sees it differently, but this looks to me one of the most interesting Oscar races ever… By the way, hoping not to bother anyone, I remember the Italian speking readers of my new Blog: AWARDSTODAY.BLOGSPOT.COM (also with Grammy analisys and predictions)
“Nobody in the Academy ever SAW Juila or I Am Love. Half of them never saw We Need to Talk About Kevin either.”
You´re kind of right, Ryan. But still, enough Academy members saw “A better life” and nominated Demian Bichir.
I guess that “Kevin” was not their kind of movie. Many saw it, but it was just too edgy or too painful, I don´t know.
The same with “Drive”: I believe enough voters swa this film, but were offended by it´s ultra-violence.
Dominik,
Good example — of a technique smart distributors use to shake things up (on rare occasions)
I mentioned a few days ago — A Better Life was in and out of theaters in June. The retail DVD was in stores by October.
It was the very first screener I got last year — arrived in the mail, regular DVD edition, mid-September. There was virtually nothing else in “the stack” for weeks.
Any voter who had any time to watch any free movies at all, would have had A Better Life and nothing else to choose from.
The same things happened with Animal Kingdom the year before. The same thing happened with Winter’s Bone last year, too. They got a head start. There was no fear of a screener leak, because the movies had already made all their money in theaters already.
A Better Life is a Summit film — and Summit is very smart about early screener saturation.
That´s intresting, Ryan- and a proper strategy for small indie distributors to stand a chance against the big powerful players in the business. Since a couple of years many producers believed it´s smart to open your film in late December and profit from the anticipation…
But anyway, let´s assume “Drive” screeners would have been in the mail, along with “A better life”. They still wouldn´t have nominate it.
Imagine the performances of Tilda Swinton or Michael Fassbender in a mainstream drama like “The Descendants” – et voila, your frontrunners!
We have readers like Stephen Holt who know Academy members personally. Stephen does a great job reporting on a certain segment of the Academy. He knows their tastes and habits.
I just know other movie writers. We talk privately too. Bloggers have friendly relationships; we confide things to each other.
Of course I won’t name names — but there are movie writers who absolutely knew what actors and actors and actresses would be winning the Oscar in recent years (and they were right, because it was ‘locked’) — and I know some writers who never saw the winning performances. But predicted them anyway.
You guys all know this yourself. You know who is favored to get nominations and who’s likely to win.
On our simulated ballot, did any of you vote for performers and films that you hadn’t seen yet?
Anybody? You don’t have to admit or confess. It’s no crime. It’s common practice, normal behavior.
We do it, you do it, Academy members do it. Voting for the names you want to be nominated — whether you’ve seen the movie or not? Happens all the time. Ballots are cast, and winner’s tallies accumulate, on the basis of votes from people who have no solid idea what they’re voting for — beyond clips and hype.
I don’t know, I saw The Artist the other day and I thought it was pretty good. But War Horse was pretty convincing to me. I think that film will be the upset. Noticed how it was the first to be called when Best Picture was announced and The Artist was second? So I think cinematography and supporting actress are locks. But picture and art direction is not a for sure thing; even though Hugo took home Art Direction this past weekend. But in the end all of theses awards are not a for sure thing. So will never know what will happen. I am actually hoping this might be another 2000-2001 Oscars, when Gladiator, CTHD and Traffic won four or more oscars, having best picture ending up going to Gladiator. So it’s going to be a very interesting show.
Gee, I wish Wim Wenders would be a lock for “Pina”.
“The Artist” was an OK film but everything but great or at least Oscar-worthy
But anyway. I wouldn’t wonder if “The Descendants” was the upset in the BP category (because I just don’t think the Academy will vote for a 3D-fantasy-adventure, deserved or not).
And by the way, I have nothing against smooth edged or sugar-coated films or films with happy ever after endings. Life’s sometimes goddamn shitty enough. And some of those apparently light films turn out to be great ones IMO (and therefore BP contenders in my heart), so that I can watch them over and over again. Period.
@Ryan Adams: No, I didn’t vote for something I hadn’t seen but that also meant that I didn’t consider anyone from Albert Nobbs, A Better Life (which I’ve since seen) or Tyrannosaur. Ignorance on my part and others probably hurt a few deserving performers in the end, especially Tilda.
let´s assume “Drive” screeners would have been in the mail, along with “A better life”. They still wouldn´t have nominate it.
Dominik, you’re right, of course.
there is no blanket rule that applies to all films. each film has its own unique advantages — or deal-breakers.
Drive falls into the category I described in such clumsy terms earlier (it’s not sugar-coated, it’s got sharp edges, it’s a bitter pill to swallow.) But the main thing: It’s difficult to fathom. It’s not immediately apparent what Drive is “driving at.” It’s an arthouse thriller. It confounds expectations.
Not to bash on Benj (but why not? he’s man enough to handle it) — but there is nothing “difficult” about The Departed or No Country for Old Men. There is nothing hard to swallow about Black Swan — no, not even the masturbation and cunnilingus. (but try showing a GUY masturbating. Try showing a guy tossing some salad with a girl. er, that’s going to cross the line for too many voters. ) A sexy girl masturbating? Call me crazy, but I’m under the impression that’s a fairly popular attraction for all the people who spent $200 million to see it.
Sure, The Tree of Life is difficult, challenging. It’s also been widely acknowledged as one of the soaring masterpieces of 2011. True undeniable genius is going to trump the difficulty factor because there will be enough voters who truly do adore a film like that. (the 20% segment of “cool kids” I’m always estimating).
Fun to point to Winter’s Bone and Tree of Life as the rare arthouse movies the Academy could partially accept. Not so fun to see them go home nearly empty-handed on Oscar night.
What is so tough to swallow about Inglourious Basterds or No Country for Old Men? They’re hugely entertaining and polished to slick perfection. Maybe not sugar-coated — that’s the wrong phrasing — but they absolutely come packaged as high-gloss silky-smooth gel-caps.
Probably wishful thinking, but I still hope Chastain has a shot. She was in the same movie and she was better, someone has to notice that eventually, right?
I also feel that The Artist IS daring and IS think-out-of-the-box and I am convinced that, if a really safe movie like The Descendants would be taking all those The Artist wins, everyone would be including The Artist in their lists of daring movies that are too out there for the conservative Academy.
“but there are movie writers who absolutely knew what actors and actors and actresses would be winning the Oscar in recent years (and they were right, because it was ‘locked’) — and I know some writers who never saw the winning performances. But predicted them anyway.”
You don´t have to see any film or performance at all the get the winners correct. Maybe it´s even more easy when your prediction is not clouded by personal preferences. I´m predicting every year with three old school buddies of mine. One of them is excellent in predicting. Me, I´m often going with some suprise choices to entertain myself a bit, but he has at least 14-15 correct, one time even 18 (out of 20, since we don´t predict the shorts and docs). He has no time at all to go to the movies, he has a family at home, is not really intrested in the movies or in the Oscars at all – he likes to gamble, that´s it.
And what he does is as follows: He sits down a couple of days before the show, checks two or three pages on the internet (probably this site too) and fills in his predictions without the slightest emotions involved.
This is how you do it!
Jesse — I’m not pointing the finger at everybody. Not all the readers, nor all the Academy members.
I’ll point a finger at myself. I hadn’t seen Shame before I voted for Fassbender. I have now, and I made a good guess. (turns out I can guess my own taste pretty well.)
Meryl is so dead in the water. Well, I guess BAFTA could go her way, but The Help is up for Best Picture and some other major awards there, despite being a distinctly American story. I don’t see Meryl winning without having swept the precursors.
Best Actor is legitimately exciting though! Who ISN’T looking for an excuse for anyone but Clooney to win again? He isn’t that fab in The Descendants, which is pretty routine for a nominated film in 2012; films like The Descendants actually winning top honors like the Golden Globe are the reason why The Artist looks fresh in comparison. Problem is he’s also up for screenplay and Hollywood never fails to kiss his ass. Pitt’s performance isn’t strong enough, and Dujardin’s isn’t exactly one for the ages either, though it certainly required more effort and artistry than Clooney playing Clooney.
When it´s true that many voters don´t watch all the movies ( at least in parts ) then why all the Oscars ? They don´t do their job properly IMHO, so maybe they should be replaced by people who will at least watch parts of the considered movies and then vote .LOL
In order to vote for Best Foreign film you have to have attended a screening for all five nominees. I wonder why they don’t do the same for Best Picture. I wonder if this is the reason why the Best Foreign Film category surprises so often. “Pans Labyrinth” had a lot of buzz and was obviously well loved, but how few do you think actually had seen “The Lives of Others” to that point? Everyone who voted had.
Hey guys,
Great writing, really enjoying this, the comments are great too. I have a question here:
What are Meryl Streep’s real chances? She is so outstanding in The Iron Lady, so much better than Davis who appears to be a lock all of a sudden because of that SAG win. How much does the SAG really matter here and how much momentum can Streep carry with the Globe and Harvey behind her? I really want her to win already.
Also, how come Pitt became such a contender all of a sudden? I thought it was Dujardin vs. Clooney with Dujardin picking up the momentum recently…
Thanks.
*******He has no time at all to go to the movies, he has a family at home, is not really intrested in the movies or in the Oscars at all – he likes to gamble, that´s it.*******
*******And what he does is as follows: He sits down a couple of days before the show, checks two or three pages on the internet (probably this site too) and fills in his predictions without the slightest emotions involved.*******
Busted!
You got me!
Sasha, Great job as always!
Ryan, Why so serious?
“What is so tough to swallow about Inglourious Basterds or No Country for Old Men?”
Not really tough to swallow, Ryan, but still remarkable choices, aren´t they? “No country” is dust-dry, has an enigmatic open end, no chance to “feel this movie” (unless you wanna get a cold), very dark.
And “Basterds”? Too postmodernistic and intellectual playful for the usual Academy voter, you could expect. But still, it was well enough admired, obviously.
I guess we have to give credit to the Academy for being a very heterogenic group of voters. But for sure, if some unconventional candidate want to get in, it needs a big push from the critics or the media.
And if you are really outside the Academys comfort zone (like “Melancholia”, “The Kid with the Bike” or – in recent years – films like “Hunger” of “Fish Tank”), it´ probably not because of being too tough to swallow, but because the aesthetic agenda (don´t know a better description in your language) of the Academy is not and never will be compatible with true challenging arthouse stuff.
“Nobody is going to watch Max Von Sydow’s good but small performance in a movie that’s a box office flop and vote for it over Christopher Plummer”
Yeah, because Beginners made more money than Avatar… Don’t be silly.
Von Sydow is a treat to Plummer because the the latter was considered a lock because (besides his great performance, of course) he was overdue, had a very long career, and is very old and unlikely to have much chances of winning again.
But Von Sydow is EVEN MORE overdue, has an EVEN LONGER and more sucessful career, and is actually OLDER than Plummer (although by less than a year), and is in a Best Picture nominee.
I still think Plummer is going to win, but isn’t certain.
The only locks are Plummer, Spencer, Rango and Hugo for Art Direction. Near locks are The Artist, Hazanavicius and The Artist for score.
I have a feeling Tree of Life won`t win Cinematography. Just like last year when everyone was predicting Roger Deakens would win for True Grit.
““Pans Labyrinth” had a lot of buzz and was obviously well loved, but how few do you think actually had seen “The Lives of Others” to that point? Everyone who voted had.”
And… this was one of the rare occasions Academy got that category right. I expected this win even when Pan’s Labyrinth had multiple nominations. So did Amélie – they don’t matter.
A Separation also has more than that one nomination, but it is still a lock to win.
@Ryan Adams: I know you weren’t pointing the finger at anyone. No worries. Like I said, I missed well-received films as well. I meant ignorance in the literal sense of being unaware, not the derisive “You didn’t see this movie and are thus a dumbass for voting for it” sense.
Can any film beat The Artist for Best Picture? Well Hugo, The Descendants, Tree of Life, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 could. I mean HP’s last film beat it and all other films in the box office and it is respected and loved by fans including critics all over the world; also it did ranked #1 in the box office/critics chart.
But foreign language film winner isn`t determined by a committee just like the nominees? If so… they have to prove they watched all the nominees. And as there are not so many voters, this is a category that I never ever call a film a lock unless the film is a BP nominee like Life is Beautiful or Crouching Tiger.
Actually there are very very few categories I would like to see ties since I started to watch the Oscars in the Shakespeare In Love year. The Lives of Others x Pan`s Labyrinth is one of them along with Shrek x Monsters Inc. for Animated Feature, Shakespeare In Love x The Truman Show for Original Screenplay and a few others I can`t remember now.
All these years the Harry Potter films should have been at least nominated for categories other than the technical awards but ESPECIALLY their last two films. I’ve seen them all, read all the books (of course the books are always better than the movies)…the movies, I’d say, are not for kids under the age of 11, at least not past movie #3 when it starts to get darker in #4 and beyond. I say 11 because that’s how old Harry is when he enters Hogwarts. I’m not saying the Potter movies would win the other categories (acting, directing, best film) but they should have been given the chance with Deathly Hallows.
9 nominees for best film while only 2 for best original song, baffling. I didn’t read up on any nomination “rules” but to the common moviegoer like me, that is weird.
One more: Howard Shore for Lord of the Rings tied with John Williams for HP in the Original Score Oscar in 2002. Two masterpieces and probably the two most unforgettable scores of the past 10, 12 years followed by Disney`s amazing soundtrack for Up.
@Tero: I agree it was the right decision, I was just making a point that if the rules didn’t require all 5 nominees being viewed it might not be the result that we got.
@JP: Reading the academy’s rules, they are nominated by special committee but when it comes to voting for the winner you just have to attend a special screening of all the films. I’d like to see a rules change that treats Best Picture the same way. If you can’t manage to somehow see them all, too bad.
If we’re taking requests, I vote for pieces about Bichir, Oldman and Von Sydow. If people aren’t familiar with their work, this is an excellent time to inspire people to watch their films — both current and past. I am frequently disappointed by who usually wins during Awards season, but the best thing about the process is finding great cinematic treasures that I wouldn’t have known about otherwise.
What about Makeup? I mean most likely will go to Harry right? And I think Harry can/will upset Hugo for Art Direction. I have a feeling they will honor the film with wins since the series has no wins. Maybe not in VFX but you never know. The Academy likes to surprise people.
I have an odd theory why we should NOT underestimate Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain : they have been top contenders from the start (strong critics awards + all 4 big nominations (SAG-BAFTA-HFPA-BCA), then SAG and the HFPA didn’t award them…BUT they also completely ignored ‘The Tree of Life’…the Academy didn’t. I think ‘The Tree of Life’ voters could easily go for Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain, simply because that’s the only way for them to award their favourite film’s stars. Sure, you could say, “nah, it only took 5% No1 to get that bp-nod, that’s not a big number” BUT it also scored the oh-so-crucial director nomination, so I think it definitely has more support in the Academy than we think.
So, Jessica Chastain probably still won’t win, simply because her co-star is THE frontrunner in the category without a strong runner-up in sight…BUT the Best Actor race is different : Clooney and Dujardin are so ridiculously neck-and-neck, that if Pitt gets the extra push from the Malick-fanbase, he could still win this in the end, especially because he is an Oscarless previous nominee…unlike Oscar-winner Clooney and first-time nominee Dujardin…thoughts ?
I can’t see a movie in recent years more locked to win anything at the Oscars, than “Separation” for Best Foreign Film.
And since in all my Oscar bets I put at least one wildcard (can’t see the fun whitout doing that), I will go with “Margin Call” for Best Original Screenplay, even considering just a OK movie.
I agree with those requesting more Oscar flashback articles. those are great! I also miss 3 Way Moviegasm and the Oscar flashback discussions within them.
I think Cinematography will be interesting. I can see a situation where any of the four – expect for the GWTDT – wins.
I think Visual Effects will be competitive as well. I can see Apes, Potter or Hugo taking it in a number of different scenarios.
As far as The Descendants, I see it taking either Best Actor or Adapted Screenplay, but not both. Which means Moneyball goes home empty handed.
I think Octavia is the only sure lock in the Acting field.
Ryan you listed some great movies like the Hurt locker, but the Artist is better than any of the films on the list.
Go Transformers in VFX…
My random predictions:
Actor: Gary Oldman. I think the difficult part was being nominated. Now he is, I don’t see AMPAS giving their top acting prize to an unknown French actor. Not even Depardieu in his career peak could get it. Not even Hollywood royalty (Pitt, DiCaprio) got it. I think Gary Oldman is this year’s Jeff Bridges, so overdue that even mentioning is embarrassing.
Actress & supporting actress: Viola Davis & Octavia Spencer. Probably everything The Help will get. There’s no way it’ll go home empty-handed and Spencer’s win would be just not enough. Plus it’s Davis year, as simple as that.
Picture: The Artist. I really like it, and I don’t really get the backlash. If it was Chris… … directing it in a remake next year, it would be said to be great
. Making a silent movie look easy and simple to make is probably one its greatest achievements. So, I suppose it’ll win without acting prizes? Why Berenice Bejo category fraud has been overlooked the entire season is beyond me, specially while Davis’ category placement is scrutinized (detailed screen time included). I don’t think it pays off anyway when there are superior & more popular performances.
Suggestion for a post: somehow related to the topic of which screeners voters will see, movies and mood. Which movies to see depending on your mood, or rather, which ones you should avoid temporarily until you can have them. Not necessarily related with the quality of the movie. Case in point: Biutiful. I suppose there’s a great performance there, but there’s no way I’m watching it. Is Shame this year’s Biutiful? Too uncomfortable to watch?
Bitch, bitch, bitch. This site is so negative. Why not write about something positive like, for instance, how the academy got it right when it selected Gone With The Wind, Casablanca and The Godfather as the best picture of their respective years? Oh, wait…that’s right. This is an Oscar-hating site.
Sasha and Ryan,
I would love to read a piece on Gary Oldman. I haven’t really seen a lot of sites covering him, so it would certainly be a breath of fresh air amongst the Clooney/Dujardin talk.
And you can go ahead and add me to the list of people hoping for an Oldman upset.
After seeing The Artist, The Descendants, and The Help (Moneyball’s on my list next, as well as others on the way), I hope it’s a surprise hodge podge of a year. Really, it so far hasn’t been a great year for movies. At least last year had most of the 10 films nominated being great films. This year is a repeat of 2009, with a bit of so-so flicks. Oh well, at least 2012 may be a better year, with The Hobbit and all.
I have huge problems with the phrase “divide the non-Artist vote” – to me it demonstrates that the writer has no clue on how the voting system works.
All an academy member has to do in this case is the following…
1) Hugo
2) The Descendants
3) The Help
4) The Artist
and so on.
There, the non-Artist vote is not divided, all three films that “can” beat it are ranked above The Artist. Nothing needs to be divided.
The problem, as I see it, is laziness, relying on a cliche as an easy explanation. It’s much easier to say, “oh, the rest of the films divided the vote, therefore none of them could win.” Frankly, I don’t even know what that means.
Instead of saying the non-Artist vote is divided, can people start phrasing it properly, something like “no other film has as much support as The Artist and that’s why it will likely win.”
Marty Scorsese is getting so many tributes this year. He had the most recent one in Santa Barbara, he got a special award at the BFCA, and he’s getting the highest honor at BAFTA this year.
And still he is the second favorite for the best director Oscar this year.
Not sure why this is playing out this way.
My friend who attended the screening of Hugo at the NYFF said that Harvey Weinstein declared Hugo “brilliant.” It’s kind of too bad Harvey didn’t handle the campaign for Hugo instead of Gangs of New York.
Iggy writes: “Not even Depardieu in his career peak could get it.”
Depardieu ruined his chances by giving an interview in a major magazine in which he revealed that he had raped someone in his youth.
Are only the titles of the Foreign Language Film nominees printed on the ballot, or does the country of origin get metioned as well?
Because forgive my cynicism, but I’m thinking of all the older Academy members weighing a film from Iran against one from Israel, and…
Don’t be so sure about A Separation’s “lock” status.
“And I think Harry can/will upset Hugo for Art Direction.”
I don’t see this happening at all.
I think Plummer for Supporting Actor and Spencer for Supporting Actress are locks. Actor and Actress categories are too close to call, though I’m pulling for Streep since her performance was far superior in the category. Best Pix and Director lean toward The Artist.
Von Sydow would be a threat for Plummer if Plummer was MUCH MUCH YOUNGER than him but they are in the same age, both of them are nominated for the second time (so it’s not like: “Von Sydow is losing much more often than Plummer so let’s reward him!”)and it’s really not important that “Extremely Loud…” is nominated for best picture and “The Beginners” are not. “Moneyball” is also nominated and do you think that Hill is “a threat” for Plummer?
And if this is so important to be from the movie that is nominated for best picture than why do you think that Oldman or Bichir might win if their pictures are not nominated? 
“Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” was not nominated for SAG and Soderbergh had two nominations in one year – and this was the year when SAG, DGA and PGA all went to different movies – so this wasn’t too suprising that Soderbergh won with Ang Lee (Scorsese’s “Hugo” has not such support as “Traffic” had – from SAG!!!). Polanski won with Marshall (recipient of the DGA – for “Chicago”) – because he directed great movie about holocaust. And besides that – “The Pianist” had late premiere in the USA (as I remember) – this can’t be said about “Hugo” – and had passionate supporters in Europe (it won BAFTA) – this surely won’t happen with “Hugo”, which is not nominated for BAFTA for best picture. The last example? Coppola – winner of DGA for “Godfather” – lost Academy Award to Fosse whose movie won EIGHT Academy Awards – still the record for the movie not winning best picture (the record that surely won’t be changed by “Hugo”) – includint two for best supporting actor and best supporting actress (and we already know that “Hugo” is not supported by actors!). So no: it’s not possible for Scorsese to win as it was not possible for Fincher to win last year. DGA is DGA – and Hazanavicius will get his Academy Award. For sure.
Besides: Academy votes almost always for director that won DGA. There were only six exceptions: Pollack and Gibson won because Spielberg and Ron Howard – both of them won DGA – were not nominated for best picture. Carol Reed won with Anthony Harvey (recipient of the DGA) because he directed the best movie of the year (according to Academy) – they chose “Oliver!” – and they chose Reed -> pure and simple.
*Pollack and Gibson won because Spielberg and Ron Howard – both of them won DGA – were not nominated for best DIRECTOR -> sorry for my mistake.
*”won EIGHT Academy Awards – still the record for the movie not winning best picture (the record that surely won’t be changed by “Hugo”) – includint two for best supporting actor and BEST ACTRESS”
I really don’t see how a race where Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director are still undecided can make for a boring Oscar night. And as other readers said, Visual Effects are not a lock at all (remember The Golden Compass just some years ago? No one, NO-ONE had predicted it to win and everyone thought Transformers was a mortal lock); and Lubezki lost for Children of Men, whose cinematography was praised even more than the job he did on The Tree of Life…
Oh.. and both Original and Adapted Screenplay are open races this year: The Artist or Midnight in Paris (or A Separation)? Moneyball or The Descedants?
So, in the end, it only comes to best picture being a predictable race? Big deal.. That happens almost every year..
Again… there`s no lock in the foreign language film category unless it`s a BP nominee. No nomination lock and no winner lock. Same for the song category.
If Harvey had Hugo it would have gotten Ben Kingsley nominated and we would probably see a sweep (and then a lot of people who love Hugo would dismiss it because of Weinstein or because it was sweeping… nothing more predictable than that). It would take Picture, Directing, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Art Direction, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.
And obviously there are no locks in best foreign language film category.
Poland and Israel might win as easily as Iran. I would not be suprised even if Canada or Belgium wins. Here everything (literally: EVERYTHING) might happen.
“If Harvey had Hugo it would have gotten Ben Kingsley nominated and we would probably see a sweep (and then a lot of people who love Hugo would dismiss it because of Weinstein or because it was sweeping… nothing more predictable than that). It would take Picture, Directing, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Art Direction, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.”
Or nothing. Do you remember “Gangs of New York”?
In my mind all acting categories are locked. Saying Von Sydow has a chance has clearly not seen much of this race. Dujardin is also on the top with Clooney a bit farther behind. Streep chances will always get hurt by her having 2 Oscars already. I know it happened a long time ago but that hasn’t mattered in recent years.
Same with Scorsese. He has one and I would say that they prefer giving it to different people. It’s 2012, not 1948.
Best picture is the real question here. The Artist seems locked but Hugo has one more nomination which puts it very close.
Best Art Direction could be a surprise as well as cinematography (not that there’s something good in that).
Coloumn idea: do a history of Meryl Streep’s wins and nominations where she came closest, why she lost, when she shouldn’t have been nominated and why she should win this year and is having another tough time.
I’m sorry .. I can’t get enough of her.
Edkargir, I have two things to say.
Ryan you listed some great movies like the Hurt locker…
1) that list was from Gentle Benj. I just repeated it.
…but the Artist is better than any of the films on the list.
2) I don’t know what to say. Speechlessness fits this situation.
If Von Sydow is a threat because his movie is nominated, then why isn’t Jonah Hill a threat?
I understand the point of making these posts, trying to keep the year interesting, but let’s face it; for the most part, every year people talk about how this could upset or this could, and then…everything goes EXACTLY like you thought it would. Don’t see this year being any different.
As far as von Sydow being a threat because EL&IC is a BP nom, the only reason the movie even got in there in the first place is due to the rule change. What would your opinion of that category be three years ago?
“Visual Effects are not a lock at all (remember The Golden Compass just some years ago? No one, NO-ONE had predicted it to win.”
That’s wrong. I and many others on this website predicted The Golden Compass. I’m sure some experts did, too.
RYAN:
Re: Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis:
“They let the cat right out of the bag. They swore they would NOT watch Brokeback Mountain. Do you think they are the only two Academy who felt that way? Or just the only two who were ignorant enough to boast about it as something to be proud of?”
Borgnine actually said that none of his friends would watch it either, presumably in the Academy, since that was the context in which he gave the quote.
So my question once again is, if a large enough group within the Academy was able to prevent overwhelming front-runner Brokeback from winning Best Picture on account of blatant, unabashed, proud homophobia, refusing to even watch the year’s far-and-away most acclaimed film, then why do you still support the Academy and the Oscars???? I know all Oscar winners and most nominees by heart since I was a a kid, a fan second to none, but as soon as I heard that, and heard Jack Nicholson announce “Crash….whoa”, that was it for me and the Oscars. Why isn’t it that way for more of you, as they are a bigoted organization?
And let me say this, if people said they wouldn’t even watch The Help because George Wallace or some other racist or vile kkk member would roll over in his grave, and the Academy condoned the comment (with silence or otherwise), would you still support them? I sure as heck wouldn’t. The proof in the Academy’s support of Curtis and Borgnine was their failure to give Brokeback Best Picture. It had even more support than The Artist (more overall prizes, plus among the majors of the precursors that The Artist didn’t win, Los Angeles, WGA (ineligible), most nominations, stronger at the Globes with director & screenplay, etc.) – yet when Sasha asks if anything can beat The Artist, of course the answer is NO. Nothing with BBM’s precursors has ever lost. Very few, if any, have had the sheer number of Brokeback’s precursors for Best Picture & Director awards among both critics and guilds, save Schindler’s List (which interestingly lost many director prizes to Jane Campion).
Back in early 2006, Paul Haggis was asked the same question – can anything beat Brokeback Mountain. His gracious answer was “No, and nothing should.” Good for him. He might have made a not-so-good film, but at least he’s honest. That’s more than I can say for the Academy, who won’t even watch all their own Best Picture nominees. Shame on them.
Nik Grape,
there’s a streep retrospective happening in “the film experience” (http://thefilmexperience.net). go and check that. with ranking and discussing of her 16 oscar-nominated performances (“the iron lady” not included).
@ Someone
Just take a look at Hugo`s reviews and Gangs` reviews. Although I think the critics exaggerated a bit with Gangs (always preferred it to The Aviator, which looks like a Tom Hooper film… everything too perfect), it was by far the worst reviewed among the nominees that year. And in a year in which all the films were epics/ historical films, it was tough for it to win. It should have won only one category: Song and could have won Daniel Day-Lewis, but was undeserving to win anything out of it.
I believe The Artist will win after all. No, I haven’t seen all of the nine Best Picture nominees; to date I’ve only seen this one, along with The Help, The Descendants, Midnight In Paris, and Moneyball. With its 11 Oscar nominations, Hugo could probably upset, along with a win for director Martin Scorsese, but I’m not sure. The Artist is not only an anomaly, or a novelty, but also a loving homage to Hollywood, period. It’s clever, romantic, tragic and ultimately uplifting. Its boldness as a silent film in the early 21st century is extremely admirable and must be too irresistable for the Academy to ignore. How it connects with most American moviegoers is another question. But from an artistic standpoint, I still believe it’s the one to beat.
These will be the winners for the Acting – SAG gets it right this time:
1) Best Actor – Jean Dujardin.
2) Best Actress – Viola Davis.
3) Best Supporting Actor – Christopher Plummer
4) Best Supporting Actress – Octavia Spencer
The Artist will win Best Picture and Best Director. And tradition speaks for itself that at least one acting prize goes to the film that wins Best Picture.
Mark my word my predictions are accurate and precise.
Apes isn’t locked for visual effects, but we’ll know for sure after the VES Awards. Hugo and Harry Potter seem like they could upset.
I think it is safe to say Plummer is still a lock.
A Separation is a lock.
Rango is a lock.
I can see Hugo picking upas few as two wins, likely in Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography or the Sound categories, with The Artist sweeping the remaining.
Definitely unfortunate, but unfortunately The Academy doesn’t seem to like distributing awards relatively evenly.
How about an article on the artisty of the Super Bowl commercials? Similar to the Oscar movies this year I see a lot of nostalgia in their choices such as the Budweiser Prohibition and American History Highlights ones.
Depardieu ruined his chances by giving an interview in a major magazine in which he revealed that he had raped someone in his youth.
I don’t have the energy, the time or more importantly, the will to defend Depardieu from himself, but here’s the story.
“I don’t understand why rape is seen as bad in this country. In [France], I’ve raped several women.” Was it a foreign language-based misunderstanding? Or did he mean it? Depardieu was once quoted in a Time magazine story suggesting he’d participated in a group rape at age nine – a mistake, it was later decided, due to a misinterpretation of what he had said in French. He’s reportedly been far more careful about insisting upon accurate translations ever since.
I know living in this cynical times, sometimes we tend to think in the past everything was innocence and happy clouds, but there were pretty ugly smear campaigns back in the 90s.
In addition to giving a mute performance, Max von Sydow is a foreign actor. The older Academy doesn’t feel indebted to him like they do to Plummer, who just got his first nomination a couple years ago. One was in The Seventh Seal, but the other was in The Sound of Music. You do the math.
as soon as I heard that, and heard Jack Nicholson announce “Crash….whoa”, that was it for me and the Oscars. Why isn’t it that way for more of you, as they are a bigoted organization?
BetteKate,
Why don’t I give up and be done with the Oscars because a percentage of the members are coarse arrogant bigots? The same reason I don’t give up and be done with America because a percentage of the population are coarse arrogant bigots.
I admire your passion, ethics and attitude — I share the same feelings, but I can’t share your reaction. I’d rather fight to try to improve circumstances I don’t like.
What does the Academy do if we give up and stop watching? They just keep catering to people easy to satisfy. What does America say if I pack up to leave? “Bye.” (I know. I’ve tried it.)
If we refuse to go away, the Oscars and America have to figure out how to deal with us.
BetteKate writes:
“Back in early 2006, Paul Haggis was asked the same question – can anything beat Brokeback Mountain. His gracious answer was “No, and nothing should.” Good for him. He might have made a not-so-good film, but at least he’s honest. That’s more than I can say for the Academy, who won’t even watch all their own Best Picture nominees. Shame on them.”
I remember reading that comment from Haggis in EW.
That was an awful year to take in. Besides Borgnine and Curtis, there were statements from women producers at studios saying they couldn’t get their male co-workers to watch Brokeback Mountain. Sarah Jessica-Parker said on Jay Leno that she hadn’t watched the movie because she didn’t want her young child to see it (that was her excuse not to watch it). And when people on the red carpet were opening saying homophobic things against the movie, somehow people connected to Crash (though thankfully not Paul Haggis). I also remember postings from gay workers in the film industry saying they didn’t like BM because it was such a depressing depiction of a gay relationship. The whole thing started to get ugly.
At least Kevin Smith stood up for the film and I believe Spike Lee.
Mark Harris recently wrote in his column at Grantland that he was present at the Oscars ceremony when Brokeback lost. He says he remembers the horror that went through the room when Crash was announced and mentions that though a lot of the people at the ceremony had voted for BM and were surprised by its loss, a lot of Academy members who weren’t attending the ceremony were at home and obviously voted for Crash.
It’s in the past now but I still think it’s fascinating that Ang Lee won that year, despite the backlash against the film in Hollywood. He certainly deserved to win hands down, IMO. Why didn’t the same people who hated BM without even seeing it vote against Ang Lee as well?
@Iggy[/i: I think you’re overestimating their love for The Help because of the SAG. It and EXIC were the only Best Picture nominees that only got other nominations for one class of voters- in this case, actors. So, it doing so well in a prize where only actors vote doesn’t mean much. If they went home empty handed at the Oscars, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
As for Dujardin, I agree with you. The last actor to come out of the blue to win Best Actor was Geoffrey Rush, for a performance that was considered a juggernaut, well above everyone else. Even Benigni and Brody had worked in some American films before (Brody in an Oscar nominee even). But I think it will be between Clooney or Pitt, though it’s possible the British voters end up making the difference for Oldman, so I don’t count him out yet.
I don´t understand why is this race “BORING”!! ?? The Artist is gonna win Best Picture, it deserves. Supporting Categories are locks. A Separation and Rango too. The Artist Score. The rest…OPEN.
I remember wanting to see Brokeback Mountain when it was first released and getting excellent reviews, but at the time I was out of town and it wasn’t showing where I was. I got back to L.A. a week later and suddenly it was “The Gay Cowboy Movie” with a bunch of lame jokes about sheep rape peppering the airwaves. I was 16 and basically lost interest because I wasn’t informed enough to check out serious critiques about its quality. When I Netflixed it a few years later, I was impressed and wholly agreed with the consensus that Crash was an undeserving winner. It’s terrible when we let lazy narratives dictate a film rather than let that film speak for itself.
And Ryan’s right about not letting a vocal minority envelop the Oscar process. Most voters are not bigoted and in any industry, there will be backward/racist individuals.
Oh and let’s not forget the Ferris Bueller’s Day off homage!
daveylow, that thing about gay people not liking Brokeback Mountain because of its depressing depicition of gay relationships is the same problem that The Color Purple and now The Help have faced. Minorities complain about their representation in film and what happens? White stories get made, and white movies win Oscars.
I think Streep will win. The SAG win for Davis was because SAG keeps awarding Streep every year. They took a break the year she’ll actually win. I just wish Streep had won for a more appealing film, like Devil Wears Prada or Julie and Julia. The Iron Lady looks like torture to sit through.
I wish Mallick would win. He pushed the medium forward. The Artist guy gazed backward. Time will prove The Artist nothing but a silly nostalgic trifle.
Zach and daveylow
At the time, I spoke to a couple of gay men who did not like BBM for the simple reason that it’s lead character was repressed, tormented and living a false life. These guys are considerabley younger than me and now live in a completely different environment – not perfect, by any means, but not in the closet. They were uncomfortable with the film and found the situation incomprehensible.
The comparison Zach makes with The Help and its AfricanAmerican detractors is bang-on – they are both viewing from positions hard-earned by others and they don’t want to look back. I guess this is just a necessary phase to the elimination of boundaries.
I say it again- you cant follow the Oscar race so closely then complain that it is predictable and boring!!
If you want surprises dont visit these websites until the award ceremony!!
@ The Dude
I think it’s precisely the close race between Pitt and Clooney the one that may open the door for a third one with a completely different profile. Wasn’t this the scenario when Brody won? And the third one in this case, imo, would be Oldman rather than Dujardin.
I don’t really buy Clooney’s frontrunner status. As much as I love him, and I’d have no problem giving him a second Oscar, I’m not sure he’s the Ampas second Oscar type of guy. He isn’t having the momentum Hanks had back in the day, and as an actor, he’s not seen at the same level as Day-Lewis or Penn.
As for The Help, I think you’re probably right. Nominations showed they don’t love it as much as it was expected, but it’s the highest grossing BP nominee, or one of the highest. And though SAG love might not be a completely reliable sign, the actors branch is still the largest voting branch.
P.S. Use these ones > instead of these [
To propose the ridiculous notion that von Sydow will beat Plummer in this race is to suggest that the precursor awards mean literally nothing. Plummer has the Los Angeles Film Critics’ Awards, the Globe, the SAG, a handful of other critics’ awards, and he’s going to win the BAFTA (which von Sydow isn’t nominated for). von Sydow has won not one award for his performance so far. I’m not saying the precursors are fully predictive of AMPAS, but they’re generally a decent indicator of what the Academy might be thinking. von Sydow is by no means neck and neck with Plummer. If von Sydow won, it would be a HUGE upset.
Locked:
Best Picture: The Artist
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Best Animated Feature: Rango
Best Original Score: The Artist
Best Original Song: The Muppets
Almost locked:
Best Directing: Michel Hazanavicus
Best Art Direction: Hugo unless they’ll go for The Artist sweep.
Most likely:
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin (he win the most difficult award for him (SAG), so he is winning the award)
Best Actress: Viola Davis (I doubt they’ll go for Streep now, we already this story before)
Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris or expecte an The Artist sweep.
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation (It wouldn’t surprise if the sionist lobby made Footnote win over the iranian film).
Best Cinematography: Tree Of Life (is this film too edgy even for cinematography)
Possible:
Best Costume Design: The Artist
Best Film Editing: Hugo
Shaky:
Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball or The Descendants
Best Sound Editing: War Horse
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: Rise Of The Planets Of The Apes is not well loved for AMPAS, this could go for Hugo.
Best Documentary: Pina or anyone.
There is one lock. The Help has no shot at winning. No Directing nomination, no Editing nomination, and no Writing nomination. Those add up to no chance at winning Best Picture.
“To propose the ridiculous notion that von Sydow will beat Plummer in this race is to suggest that the precursor awards mean literally nothing.”
Well, they don’t. They only indicate momentum, which is transient, at best. No other category is prone to as much last minute shifting as the supporting roles, either. Nobody expected Juliette Binoche, Marsha Gay Harden, James Coburn, John Mills, or Beatrice Straight. I think that Von Sydow’s age and phenomenal body of work will get a lot of votes, whether or not they have see or even liked the film.
Sclub. You are still talking about HP8? Gee. Oscar voters don’t care about box office and critics. Just becaue you think H8 deserves the nod, doesn’t mean it does. MI4 should have gotten a nod too based on your ranting and raving H8 obession. Nobody even cares about H8. It should not have been nodded, and it wasn’t as expected. Time to conceded. It is over for H8.
I’m not expecting Streep to win #3 ever, but I love the excitement…and the campaign. I’ll hire Harvey Weinstein if I’ll run for president.
zzz
The headline is great.
Answer: all talkies upset him.
How can you possibly think that Supporting Actor is not a lock for Christopher Plummer and in that same sentence think that if he had competition it would be Max von Sydow? The only competition he had all year was Albert Brooks (Winner with NYFCC, Satellite and NSFC), and since he was left off the ballot completely, it’s over. Give it to Plummer already.
Plummer wins Critic’s Choice, Globes and SAG and that’s already enough for a lock, but throw in wins at NBR, LA Film Critics and Online Film Critics, add Spirit, Satellite and BAFTA Nods along with runner up at National Society of Film Critics and that makes this one of, if the easiest predictions of the year.
Oh, and Max von Sydow wasn’t nominated all year for a SINGLE major award, let alone won anything. So, no, he has no shot.
This is year in Sup. Actor is totally different from many of the years that served as example. Totally different from James Coburn and Marcia Gay Harden. In those, the race was pretty much open and the precursors were totally split. In Marcia`s year, for example, Francis McDormand won most of the critics awards, Kate Hudson took the Globe and Judi Dench won the SAG. And I think Marcia totally deserved it. James Coburn no. It was a career achievement award. Ed Harris should have won.
And it`s not Lauren Bacall`s year. If The Artist had a strong supporting actor, it could happen. But not only it doesn`t have but it`s also no English Patient. I think nobody expects The Artist to take 9 Oscars. Juliette Binoche is a much better actress than Lauren Bacall, who was a star of her time but not a brilliant actress… it would be great and deserving to see her winning because the Oscars have to have its stars moments…. but Binoche also gave a much stronger performance in a much better film. And Best Picture winner usually takes an acting award (Tom O`Neil says this 100 times every year). I preferred Ralph Fiennes to Geoffrey Rush but Rush is great and had a more showy role.
Answer: all talkies upset him.
In the top photo, Dujardin looks so much like Douglas Fairbanks, Sr.
“Nobody seems to care for Harry Potter!
It’s the final chapter of a saga which has not earned a single statuette!
Isn’t it time for it?”
That EXACTLY what i would have loved to have seen but it says a lot about the oscar’s arcaic outdated and DEEPLY UNPOPULAR mentality doesn’t it?
So, much like an unstable child oscar leaps from one disaster to the next.
ONce again it seems the classic to be HUGO hasbeen undermined by sympathy for the little film that couldn’t but somehow did or SHOULDN’T but somehow did.
Frankly, and it not like me to let rip it s bullshit oscar honestly-
And interestingly hatrdly ANY ONE on this site has praised ‘the artist’ so doesn’t that tell you and us all the alarmingly huge gulf between public sentiment and oscar’s choice?
Oscar has LET their once revered merits be compromised but perhaps the subplot to their sinister manouverings is for the fact that Harry Potter that captured the worlds imaginatiomn for a decade, became and instant acclaimed hit, regardless of one or 2 slightly lesser movies it had a great start and an even greater finale but why won’t oscar embrace it?
For the reasons that HUGO has lost it before the race really heats up- they DON’T like fantasy, semi fantasy, or children’s stories even thought by NO MEANS both these films are great for adults as well- and this point above all exposes oscar;s greatest problem- they CANNOT embrace films where children take centre stage not since Oliver and its a disgrace.
EASILY the best made films in oscar’s calendar year not just their short lived ‘awards’ nonsense period, are Harry Potter Finale and Hugo.
Make no mistake ‘Potter’ was not just a commercial success the critics acknowledged its mark and influence on this generation following of course in footsteps of Lord of the Rings but the tree of youth in oscar’s camp is dwindling -dying almost as they obsess this year about a film that celebrates the past.
HELLO OSCAR ARE YOUR HEADS STILL SITTING ON YOUR SHOULDERS? GEEZ
HUGO IS A FILM ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF CINEMA but of course YOU cant see the bigger picture.
Isense among many bloggers a large amount of Diplomacy toward ‘the artist’ yes its great for film- to a certain point only as far as oscar is concerned that ‘the artist’ wins best director- perhaps at best that all it really deserves- on the basis that the mentality is such that oscar obsess lately about embracing ‘firsts’ well what they are about to do is something yet again that they should have done when a foreign film DESERVED IT not an ‘i owe you’
Seriously can’t everyone see how rotten and narrow and shallow oscar has become? a posterchild for bad behavior on the part of movies- misreading the REAL climate of what people rave about (and that DOESN’T mean a multi million dollar hit necessarily and sorry it simply not ‘the artist’
So i guess next year we going to have a first ever japanese director winner? no to be clear im not racist but i disgusted in oscar’s attyitude to the timing and the films which win in these certain years it simply is ludicrous- there never should have come down to a ‘breaking of the mould for female oscar winning directors it should have just happened when society modernised.
Anyway Frenchman or not a foreign director has won before.
And if i were oscar iw ouldn’t rush too much to sell out to countries that simply barely give a dman about their awards ceremony.
Yes it great for global expansion.
But what good is global expansion when they are not properly looking after their home base?
These are just some of the key plot holes in OSar’s saga. I unashamedly condemn them and i think others here do too quit holding back everyone lol
Yep, that’s right. Of course. Harry Potter ranks right up there with such Academy Award-winning best pictures as On the Waterfront; Bridge on the River Kwai; Lawrence of Arabia; and The Godfather.
Give me a break.
“Harry Potter ranks right up there with such Academy Award-winning best pictures as On the Waterfront; Bridge on the River Kwai; Lawrence of Arabia; and The Godfather.
Give me a break.”
Well, no, but Harry Potter 2 is better than some of the film nominated for best picture this year.
Sasha…
Hugo is winning special effects.
I mean, come on.
“Harry Potter ranks right up there with such Academy Award-winning best pictures as On the Waterfront; Bridge on the River Kwai; Lawrence of Arabia; and The Godfather.
Give me a break.”
who said thst? i certainly didn’t butg there no doubt that that film series has encapsulated the worlds and critics attentiobn in a unique way and few films if any have the staying power of appeal for a decade- i should point out with the harry potter films it one of the few film franchises who’s audience base matured on my observation as the series itself advanced and that speaks volumes about Harry Potter’s achievement.
But i could be wrong whoever mader the comparison to lawrence of arabia etc yeah that a bit over the top i not myself even going as far to suggest this in fact, the potter series is nowhere near as huge a cinematic achievement as the lord of the rings.
However, if the person who said that has been taken out of context, perhaps all they meant was that it deserves to be considered like some past oscar contenders were considered.
I was talking in the context of more serious consideration in taken in isolation without comparison to films which are way beyond comparison to the potter series,nobody should compare directly to Lawrence of Arabia etc should they? its like chalk and cheese really..
But i also think even if the person who said the above quote didn’t make mention of it that a film nevertheless like ‘Lawrence of Arabia’ etc have one thing in common they were hugely popular in the pre-commercial oscar era but nevertheless both popular with critics and the public.
Hence the ommission of Potter as an oscar contender at LEAST for best pic and a host of technical awards and at best to get a host of nominations to recognise consistently brilliant design and artform for cinema, etc does go to show as proof the extent that oscar are railing against the principkle they once believed in such as in LAwrence of Arabia. Embrace the degree of public enthusiasm with critical cclaim consistently not as erratically as it has been.
IT a joke and oscar treat us like a joke the ommission of Potter’s most satisfying and powerful of finales highlights the joke oscar has become.
Sory inherent in this message is that we the audience don’t carry any clout at all not even a glimmer of consideration maybe with one film out of 9 but honestly…
whatever lets get this rubbish over and done with look forward to a nerw year oscar have killed this race already i can see. lets start a new.
And what may i aske will the oscar do if SOMEHOW the Dark Knight Rises goes BEYOND a mere comic book/ graphic novel into a full blown poetic and potent drama that doesn’t hold back and as unlikely as it is but not entirely impossible exceed public and critic expectations beyond or on par with the Dark Knight?
Surely Nolan’s baby here that he shown dedication for the duration of the franchise each since batman begins has been an astonsihing achievement to transform characters from a graphic novel/ comic book into characters we cheer, and jeer and with soul and with life- that is a far and away bigger achievement than what certain oscar winners have achieved since 2001.
And what of the sure to be enormours and momentous ‘Hobbit’ everyone been waiting for it its fan base is huge and the critical acclaim was thanjkfully just as loud if not under circumstances louder than public buzz- there was nothing but praise from thoser connected to hollywood.
The extensive challenge of bringing unquestionably the most ambitious and complex and sophisticated book trilogy of all time at least surely in the modern era in cinemas probably since ‘gone with the wind’ was adapted for big screen that as far as you have to got o recall such ambitious challenges yes, different era and lesser technology with Gone with the Wind but even for its time the ‘Rings’ trilogy not only was enthused by the exsiting fan base but got others under its influence who of the few and yes there were quite a few that never heard of the trilogy (i was one of them believe it or not at the time)
Any film that transcends its appeal beyond the immediate fan base proves its worth in the memories of audiencies in the time that ensures for a generation or more- and THIS my friends here is what i mean when i talk about those films that really and truly deserve to win and those that do but don’t prove their worth.
Indeed, this is different to what some may misinterpret as me sayin its all about who makes the most gross in box office well that NOT what i saying at all. I simply saying that if a film enthuses a crowd word of mouth gets people outside of the original fanbase on board and endless generations and a mixed crowd demographgic consistently per session when the film hits its peak as it gets there and the buzz and the rave that filters from audiences to critics and vice versa.
Honestly, you really have to go as far back as ‘Gone with the Wind’ to recall the last time such excitement and enthusiasm dominated the best part of a few years and the entire year following each films release let alone the first one.
When a film is an event and lives up to expectations for both audiences and critics it BLOODY WELL SHOULD WIN NO IFS AND BUTS OSCAR
And frankly oscar should encourage and support independent films just not go to much to the other extreme we had the best part of 4 low busget films win in last 5 years as far as oscar goes it getting a bit excessive now ideally per decade at least counter that with the films that have captured a degree of critics and audience balance appeal with a bit of oscar sentiment and that why HUGO deserves to win which of course means it wont right?
well it shouldn’t be but unfortunately it is.
“Anyway Frenchman or not a foreign director has won before.”
What an obvious racist comment here. They’re not winning because they’re french but because the movie is about Hollywood old era. The Artist is a very sentimental film about voters own past.
My scattered thoughts:
Best Picture – I think it’s The Artist with only Hugo as a slight upset.
Best Director – I feel like it’s 55/45, Hazanavicius vs Scorsese.
Best Actor – so many scenarios. Dujardin is the fave after SAG, but I feel like Clooney is right there. Also, Pitt has steam from Tree of Life. And Oldman could win BAFTA and have secret bubbling support.
Best Actress – Davis vs. Streep. If Streep wins BAFTA, we have a true race. because AMPAS may just feel like rewarding Spencer from The Help. And I think Spencer’s only real competition is split in half by Bejo (Artist carry-over) and Chastain (Tree of Life carry-over).
Best Supp. Actor – Plummer with von Sydown breathing down his neck.
Original Screenplay – MiP vs. Artist (55/45 split, there).
Adapted Screenplay – Descendants vs. MOneyball (55/45 split).
Editing – The Artist, I think.
Cin, Art D. Costume – no friggin’ idea; as Artist, Hugo, War Horse seem to be jostling in most of those categories. Seriously, I could make valid points for any of them winning.
Make-Up – Iron Lady vs. Harry.
Sound – War Horse twice?
FX – Apes vs. Hugo (BP nom) vs. Harry. No clue.
Score – likely The Artist, unless Hugo is more popular than originally thought. Williams could be a spoiler.
Song – one would think The Muppets.
Foreign – one would think A Separation.
Animated – Rango.
Quite unpredictable if you ask me.
Reichdom. The ommision of H8 is not a joke. It is not Lord of the Rings. Oscar voters have their prefrenceand taste. The industry has spoken about what they think about H8. Critics gave it high rating for what it is, it does not mean the voters have to jump on the wagon with them. It is over. Mi4 also got high rating and box office, so it is a joke that the voters ignored it? It is time to be realistic.
Reichdom. H8 is not Gone with the wind. You are kidding, I hope…
Reichdome. By your standard, Jack Ass should have been a contender. It is an event, it made money, and critics liked it, and MI4 and Spiderman 2 shoul have all won.
“EASILY the best made films in oscar’s calendar year not just their short lived ‘awards’ nonsense period, are Harry Potter Finale and Hugo.”
Tree Of Life, Film Socialisme, A Separation, Mysteries From Lisbon, The Kid With A Bike, Le Havre, Uncle Boonmee, Aurora, Road to Nowhere, Young Adult, Mission Impossible 4, etc. are better films but you probably didn’t watch the majority of the films I listed above just because you’re unable to be attracted for a film without being attracted for phenomenon around the film.
Jesus christ reichdome. Longest post by a foreign speaking person ever? I think i agree with you about hp8 as being an event film, that spoke to critics. And i agree the oscars need to start awarding movies that will hold up over time, that arent a gimmick, and sometimes play to audience satisfaction. And i wouldve liked seeing it nominated for best picture.
Um id like to see more articles/story ideas about the shorts and why a certain one could win or not win. All oscar blogs and this seems true of the last ten years has over-covered the top 6 categories. And then they go “who knows about the shorts” and i loose my betting pools all the time over the shorts.
I think each year the film industry has common themes or links. Moulin Rouge is one of my favorite films and shouldve won that year. But it didnt fit that years theme. The next year it got people saying “hey its been a while since a musical has won” and that wave of thinking i think gave chicago the edge when it didnt deserve it. That year i think the theme was real life stories that told different stories: In The Bedroom/A Beautiful Mind/Monsters Ball/Training Day. This year the theme is definatly nostalgia. And the artist has the gimmick (silent film) and can be cute/sentimental/etc to mobilize the older voters. Say over the nostalgia of War Horse or The Help.
ACTOR: I feel a Gary Oldman win in both BAFTA and OSCAR.
ACTRESS: Davis, if not…Williams. I don’t think Streep is a thought anymore.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Plummer (though the Von Sydow nod intrigues me, it isn’t a threat)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Though Spencer seems to be the odds on favorite, I wouldn’t rule out McCarthy to slide in for a last minute steal.
Who I think should win (by merits):
- Picture: The Artist
- Director: Michel Hazanavicious
- Actor: Jean Dujardin
- Actress: Meryl Streep
- Sup. Actor: Christopher Plummer
- Sup. Actress: Octavia Spencer
- O. Script: The Artist
- A. Screenplay: The Descendants
- Foreign Film: A Separation
- Animated Feature: Rango
- OST: The Artist
- Song: The Muppets one
- Make Up: The Iron Lady
- Art. Direction: War Horse
- FX: Harry Potter
- Film Editing: The Artist
- Sound oscars: Transformers
Who is going to win:
- Picture: The Artist
- Actor: Jean Dujardin
- Actress: Viola Davis
- Sup. Actor: Christopher Plummer
- Sup. Actress: Octavia Spencer
- Director: Michel Hazanavicious
- O. Script: Midnight In Paris
- A. Screenplay: The Descendants
- Foreign Film: A Separation
- Animated Feature: Rango
- OST: The Artist
- Song: The Muppets one
- Make Up: The Iron Lady
- Art. Direction: Hugo
- FX: Rise of The Apes
- Film Editing: The Artist
- Sound oscars: Transformers