Oscars 2012: Final Oscar Predictions
It has all come down to this, my friends. It has been a wonderful season here in the Grizzly Maze. Our work is done. Nothing left but the last of the desperately hungry bears and you know, the end of the season. You can’t come here and do what I do. You will die up here.
Either which way, and however things worked out, our unsinkable ship set sail in May when it hit the Cannes film fest. There, everyone was talking about the “black and white silent movie.” It wasn’t yet the Harvey movie. When it became the Harvey movie, those who were left shattered by last year’s incomprehensible coup d’etat, bowed their heads and held out their palms Ceasar style. The lemmings lined up and took their place in the line. It was a forgone conclusion, anointed by Dave Karger’s very early declaration that The Artist would win.
We kept waiting for the iceberg to appear in the cold of the night but it never did. Each and every time, the unsinkable ship managed to avoid danger, never really had to turn those momentum votes around. Moreover, The Artist was all anyone could talk about on the film festival circuit. Telluride: The Artist, Toronto: The Artist, New York Film critics: The Artist, Broadcast film critics: The Artist. The Los Angeles Film critics bravely went into the water when one of the other bathers would do so and picked The Descendants, hoping to stop the unsinkable ship – but nothing doing. The PGA=The Artist, the Globe=The Artist, The DGA=The Artist, The Eddie=The Artist. It faltered only with the SAG and the ASC and the Costume Design Guild, where it was expected to also clean up.
All that’s left now is for those now outed old white coots in the Academy to anoint it the Best Picture of 2011. The BEST PICTURE OF 2011, which it will do on Sunday.
And so it goes. The Oscar race plays out like American Idol except that the public never gets a say. The one time the largest voting body in Hollywood, the SAG, voted they picked The Help instead.
That’s as close to a public vote as you’re going to get. Two questions remain. How many Oscars will The Artist win? And how long will the viewing public last watching the Oscars, knowing how it will turn out and worse, not caring?
The industry are supposedly doing the right thing – picking the best picture. That is, the film that told its story the best, put out the best effort, and won the season on merit. But the Oscar race has become more like the Presidential race. We lean towards the least likely to offend – how many great leaders had mistresses? Well, sorry. You have to be faithful to your wife or you lose. One tiny slip-up in a Best Picture contender will sacrifice daring, imagination, timelessness for the contained perfection of a mild crowdpleaser; these are not voters who want to support visionaries. These are voters who support what they “like.”
“I only liked the last 30 minutes.”
“I didn’t like Sid.”
“It didn’t have a happy ending.”
“The Oakland A’s never won the World Series.”
“It lost money.”
“I didn’t like the kid.”
“It was racist.”
“It made no sense.”
“It was boring.”
“It had third act problems.”
“It will never overcome its costs.”
What you will never hear this year:
“It was too violent.”
“I didn’t understand the ending.”
“Too much sex.”
Either which way, here we are. Sailing across the sea headed for safe landing. It’s a fine ship and it won’t make the history books. How do we think it will all turn out? Will there be any major surprises?
Let’s do this thing and put her to bed.
Best Picture
Will win: The Artist
Could upset: The Descendants
Should have been more prominent: Hugo, Moneyball
Should have been nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Best Director
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius
Might upset: Terrence Malick, Martin Scorsese
Should have been nominated: David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Actor
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Could win: George Clooney, but it’s going to depend on how much they loved The Descendants. If they loved it a LOT it might win the Oscar for editing and then Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. If they didn’t love it that much it might only win Screenplay or nothing at all.
Best Actress
Will win: Viola Davis, the buzz is uncontainable at this point. But did it happen in time for voters to catch on?
Might win: Meryl Streep, the PR has been on overdrive. If not for Davis and The Help this would be Streep’s year. Or it might be a year from now, or the year after that. Only one actress stars in a Best Picture nominee and that’s shameful for the Academy, but it also means that Davis has the edge, and should have it. By god.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christopher Plummer
Might win: Max Von Sydow in an upset; Von Sydow and Jonah Hill are the only two who star in Best Picture nominees but Plummer is the frontrunner.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Octavia Spencer
Might win: probably no one.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Midnight in Paris
But I think it will go to: A Separation
Why I’m predicting A Separation instead: it is simply a better screenplay. No, it has no chance to actually win because they will want to reward Woody Allen for this massive career achievement and if Midnight in Paris is going to win anything it’s Original Screenplay. But here’s the rub – A Separation is a hundred times better. If enough of the voters saw it they would not be able to deny this simple truth. So I personally will get this one wrong — for your office pool you should only predict Midnight in Paris.
The Artist could also win. And if it does, that will make Hazanavicius the only writer/director in all 84 years of Oscar history to win Original Screenplay and then have his film go on to win Best Picture.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Descendants – what a beautiful screenplay and film.
Might upset: Moneyball
Should have been nominated: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Best Art Direction
Will win: Hugo
Might win: The Artist
It’s between these two films. Beautiful Hugo trounces the competition here, natch, being that it’s Dante and all. But The Artist could win this in a sweep so this is an early award to watch for. And I have to say The Artist’s art direction is pretty lovely too.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Tree of Life
Might win: The Artist, Hugo
This feels like a three-way race with Tree of Life pulling ahead slightly. But the Best Picture winner could also sweep this award along with it. Hugo and Tree of Life could split the vote, leaving the popular choice to swoop in and take this award.
Best Costumes
Will win: The Artist
Could win: Hugo
Any of them could win but this feels like a gimme for The Artist.
Best Sound
Will win: Hugo
Might win: War Horse
Might upset: Moneyball, Dragon Tattoo
This is the hardest category to call. You don’t win Sound without first getting a CAS nomination. It hardly ever happens. Hugo and Moneyball are the two sound nominees that have the CAS so I figure it has to be either one of those.
Sound edting
Will win: Hugo
Might win: War Horse or Dragon Tattoo
This is what you call overthinking things and it feels like the hardest category to call right now. Lots of people are picking War Horse for both and Hugo for both, which seems like the best route to take since either film is likely to win in either category. I’m hovering between Hugo, Dragon Tattoo and War Horse right now but might just stick with Hugo in the end. What we don’t know is how much the Academy is going to like Hugo. They don’t have a history of rewarding films that lost money. And Hugo has lost a lot of money. Conversely, Dragon Tattoo made more money than any of them (except Transformers). They don’t often reward bad movies in the sound categories no matter how loud they are. It just depends how many people are going to qualify War Horse as a bad movie (I do) and how many will think it is a good movie. But many also feel like if Steven Spielberg is in the race they will want to reward him.
Basically where these sound awards are concerned — I have no fucking idea how it will go. All I DO know is that sound editing follows much the same rule as Sound mixing. It almost always has a CAS nomination to go along with it. Hugo has the edge because of that.
Editing
Will win: The Artist
Could upset: The Descendants
A surprise: Hugo
It is incredibly hard to overcome the Ace stat, where the Ace Editing award has matched up with Oscar. It’s been 100% since 2000 when Traffic lost the Ace but won the Oscar. It is an incredibly reliable stat. Since Hugo lost the Ace that makes it doubly hard to pick up the Oscar – on the other hand, we are talking about Thelma Schoonmaker here, a living legend.
Foreign Language
Will win: A Separation
Might win: In Darkness
I can’t see how they will overlook this film. But you just never know. Unlike the other branches, voters in this category have to see all five films.
Documentary Feature
Will win: Undefeated
Might win:Paradise Lost 3
I feel totally out of sorts on this category because I’ve only seen those two docs. That’s no way to predict a category where all of the voters have to see all five films.
Animated Feature
Will win: Rango
Might win: any of the other films.
Visual Effects
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Might win: Hugo, Harry Potter
This is another tough category to predict. No film in that category has lost to a Best Pic nominee since the 1970s. That makes it almost guaranteed that Hugo will take it. But this is the last hurrah for Harry Potter, might it upset in this category as a win for the series? And finally, the apes in Rise are phenomenal. I keep switching back and forth between Hugo and Rise.
Score
Will win: The Artist
Might win: Hugo or War Horse
Should have been nominated: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Dragon Tattoo (but those assholes have no taste) – I am horrified that Reznor/Ross kicked it out of the box like that, created what I think is a musical masterpiece, and it was ignored by the Academy. It’s just a bad call, Ripley.
Song
Will win: Man or Muppet but who really knows
Live action short
Will win: Raju or Tuba Atlantic
Might win: The Shore
The Shore is directed by Terry George so it has the big star factor. But it’s not the best film. Raju is way better. Many people seem to think Tuba will win but all of those seagulls bummed me out. I have no idea what will win in this category
Doc Short
Will win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Might win: Saving Face
This is another one where your guess is as good as mine.
Animated Short
Will win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Might win: Any of the other four but I liked Flying Books the best
Makeup
Will win: The Iron Lady
Might win: Harry Potter
And with that, we finally put 2011 to bed. Where it belongs. On shore. Far, far away from any icebergs.
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It’s so upsetting that Harry Potter is being treated so poorly. Especially in a year where no one is head over heels in love with anything. It’s really a shame and shows how out of touch the Academy is with reality.
Sasha, didn’t Woody Allen win Original/Picture for Annie Hall?
The Artist could also win. And if it does, that will make Hazanavicius the only writer/director in all 84 years of Oscar history to win Original Screenplay and then have his film go on to win Best Picture.
Here’s to Melissa McCarthy for the upset win!
@caseyko – Woody wasn’t listed as a Producer for Annie Hall. Charles Joffe and Jack Rollins were.
could you direct me to the link for the oscar set design by john myhre and here’s to harry potter and the deathly hallows part 2, i’mm watching it tonight hoping that it will win the oscar for best visual effects. i hope viola davis wins over meryl streep for best actress. i hope war horse picks up at least one win. maybe the best original score category for john williams. wouldn’t i be great if there was a tie in the best supporting actor category. christopher plummer and max von sydow have never won oscars before. i can’t wait to see what both the 82 year od veteran actors will have to say abbout each other’s competition on oscar night. and if woody allen wins for best original screenplay will his movie win for best picture. it’s possible. and if moneyball wins adapted screenplay that will be unpredictable, too. what f rio wins best priginal song and what if la luna actually wins best animated short film.
I should modify my response to Caseyko, by adding that The Artist is credited as Hazanavicius as single writer in the orig screenplay – Annie Hall was a collaboration with Marshall Brickman, so while Woody won director and screenplay and the film he co-wrote, and directed also won Best Picture, perhaps the achievement, should Michel also make it, will be a distinction as an individual screen writer to win for his writing, his direction and his film (although Thomas Langmann gets the prize) -would be a first.
it wouldve been interesting to watch the oscars in black and white this year since the front runner the artist is in in b + W. imagine sitting there watching it onhdtv and the kodak theaater is in black and white.
i predict billy crystal to come out st his opening dressed as jean djuardin’s character george valenti.
Best Actress
Will win: Viola Davis, the buzz is uncontainable at this point. But did it happen in time for voters to catch on?
Love how this was worded, and a damn good question….
Sasha, didn’t Woody Allen win Original/Picture for Annie Hall?
Yep but he had a co-writer. Hazanavicius is a single writer.
Sasha, didn’t you say that Buck and another film (Bill Cunningham maybe? Senna?) being snubbed was an egregious error? How can you say that when you haven’t even seen three of the films they chose over them?
Sasha, those same no-taste assholes gave Reznor/Ross the win last year. Wasn’t this pretty extraordinary? Do they deserve no credit for this at all? Were you directing the same kind of abuse at BAFTA last year for completely overlooking TSN’s score?
OFF TOPIC:
“The Artist” triumphed at the César Awards, six Awards including Bérénice Bejo in the Lead Actress category- formidable!
History is going to be made tomorrow, guys – a french silent b/w-film is going to win Best Picture, amazing!
Based on the last 3 years Oscar pattern, Meryl will not win Best Actress, since her film is not nominated for Best Picture. Period. So it will definitely go to Davis. Meryl’s time has passed. She should have won her third Oscar for Doubt, if Winslet didn’t sneak to Leading Actress three years ago.
I am crossing my finger for Mr Plummer. But I have suspicion The Academy had picked Max Von Sydow for Supporting Actor the day they announced Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close as Best Picture nominee. Remember when Winslet & Bullock were the clear winners, their films also suddenly got Best Picture nominations. Besides, Plummer’s character is gay, while Sydow’s is WWII survivor, and this is The Oscar, who are we kidding?
Well, well, well seems to me that me and OCO aren’t the only ones that think Harry Potter’s last film should be nominated for Best Picture. Also last night while I was on Facebook a very close friend of mine Davy Smitty sent me this link that proves why Harry Potter’s last film should’ve been nominated for BP Oscar (I know it’s too late but I thought I should check it out)
http://www.awardsdaily.com/2011/10/top-ranked-films-of-2011-box-office-and-critics-chart/ however some of the films released in November and December wasn’t in this
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – 89%
The Artist – 67.5% or 90% (BFCA)
War Horse – 55% or 71.5% (BFCA)
Moneyball – 87%
The Descendants – 85%
The Help – 76.75%
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close – 39%
Tree of Life – 79.5%
Midnight in Paris – 84%
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – 80.75%
I don’t if it proves why Harry Potter’s last film was snuubed out of the BP race, those critic society awards, or the Oscars but to me or anyone here that’s kinda proof right there.
“The Artist could also win. And if it does, that will make Hazanavicius the only writer/director in all 84 years of Oscar history to win Original Screenplay and then have his film go on to win Best Picture.”
Do you mean SINGLE writer, w/ no partners? But even then there’s Joseph L. Mankiewicz, who did it for ALL ABOUT EVE. Woody Allen for ANNIE HALL and Billy Wilder for THE APARTMENT did it, with original screenplays, but with partners. There’s a well-known picture of Wilder cradling all three Oscars in 1961.
It won’t happen because as a rule, Oscar doesn’t like to give the awards to the same director/writer (see Oliver Stone losing screenplay for PLATOON while winning director, or Anthony Minghella doing the same for THE ENGLISH PATIENT). Usually it takes a real icon–a Mankiewicz, a Woody, a Wilder, the Coens–to pull off both director and writing (original or not).
You really think the public has any say in American Idol?
@SC8Official I guess Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 wasn’t only the People’s Choice but the Critic’s Choice.
The important point about Annie Hall is not that Woody had a co-writer, it’s that Woody didn’t produce the film. He didn’t take home the award for Best Picture. Charles H. Joffe did.
I have to say, I’ll be happy next year when no one will be able to complain that a Harry Potter film has been snubbed by the Oscars. Those films are pedestrian adaptations of great novels. They’re not bad movies, but they’re not the kind of filmmaking I want to reward.
I’m puzzling over the live action shorts as well. I think Pentecost and Time Freak are both slight one-joke films; The Shore has the biggest names behind it and so is the most often predicted film, but it’s not actually very good; Raju and Tuba Atlantic are both excellent, but Tuba Atlantic is too bizarre and avicidal for some, so Raju will win. Raju is also the only real drama in the bunch, and I think the comedic films will split votes.
Flying Books, Raju, Hugo/Art, ToL/Cinematography and Davis add (badly needed) luster to the award.
Hazanavicius didn’t produce THE ARTIST; Thomas Langmann did. It’s sole writer/director who wins for an original screenplay, which then wins BP. Except for Mankiewicz with ALL ABOUT EVE, no one else has done that.
Does any of this matter anymore? Mark Wahlberg went and told the winners and its EVERYWHERE online now, including the New York post and Hollywood reporter. He apparently knows someone at price waterhouse who told him the winners.
I hate to burst bubbles, but the “All About Eve” screenplay is actually Adapted. It’s based on the short story “The Wisdom of Eve” by Mary Orr. Back in 1950 the categories were Story and Screenplay (Original) and Screenplay (Adapted) the latter of which Mankiewicz won.
If that Wahlberg thing is true then some people are in deep shit right now including Marky Mark.
I’ll bet Wahlberg issues an “I was only kidding” statement. Does he do it before or after the Oscars?
Yeah we’ll know with the very first award if Wahlberg was “joking” or not. Either way, I completely lost all respect for him because of this.
“Pina” will win best documentary
FINAL PREDICTIONS (1)
As Harrison Ford said in 1999 when presenting the Best Picture award, “And so in the end, as it was in the beginning …” This season, at the end as it was at the beginning, belongs to “The Artist”. The response to this independent homage to 1920s cinema, black and white and silent, has been quite phenomenal. It has been an overbearing presence throughout the season collecting awards from places as diverse as the British Academy of Film Awards, the Producer’s Guild, the Golden Globes, the Independent Sprits, the New York Film Critics, and the Cesar Awards. It is a diverse collection of Best Picture accolades and, absent a surprise that surpasses that moment when Jack Nicholson opened the envelope and remarked, with a shocked expression, “Crash”, tonight will belong to “The Artist”. The question that is frustrating so many prognosticators is, to what extent? I think it is fair to say that “The Artist” is not a Best Picture winner in the fashion of “Chicago” or “Gladiator” – both movies that lost their bids for directing and writing. Those were movies that felt as though they were being caught up in the home stretch – by “The Pianist” and “Traffic” respectively – and won ultimately by narrow margins. Not only does “The Artist” not feel like one of those movies but there is not “The Pianist” and no “Traffic” this year (or at least there doesn’t seem to be – of course we would have said that in 2000 and 2002 as well).
If I can use an analogy, I am torn between seeing “The Artist” as a “Slumdog Millionaire”-esque effort that sweeps pretty much all before it, and seeing it as “The King’s Speech”. In the former scenario “The Artist” wins everything for which it is nominated except Best Supporting Actress and Best Art Direction (seemingly in the back for “Hugo”). That makes a haul of 8 Oscars. In the latter scenario “The Artist” still ends up as the biggest winner of the night but the subtleties of its design and editing render it unable to breakthrough below the line. There were many last year convinced that “The King’s Speech” had to win 7+ awards because it had so many nominations and were ultimately proven wrong. As I’ve said before, the Oscars do not represent a big enough data sample to do complex statistical analysis and each year is distinct. I find it personally easier to reason through the nominations by way of the ‘soft analogy’ than the ‘hard statistical analysis’ – but of course people differ. After much thought, and even anguish, I’ve decided that “The Artist” feels like a (near) sweeper. Thus I am reluctantly predicting Michel Hazanivicius to collect three Oscars on one night. This is actually not as rare as people might thing. Within the past 15 years it has been accomplished by James Cameron (for “Titanic”), Joel and Ethan Coen (for “No Country for Old Men”), and Peter Jackson (for “The Return of the King”). His Best Director win is a near guarantee. His chances in Original Screenplay and Film Editing are far less certain.
For Original Screenplay one cannot ignore the success of Woody Allen both this year and in a general sense with Academy voters. The two previous times that an Allen film has been nominated for Best Picture have seen Woody collect this prize (“Annie Hall” in 1977 and “Hannah and Her Sisters” in 1986). But, as I said above, a sample size of two makes any read-off for this years’ Original Screenplay award simply redundant. More relevant to this year are Woody’s triumphs at the Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and Writer’s Guild awards – a very significant trio of wins indeed. There are still too many people out there that feel “The Artist” didn’t have a screenplay which is, as many posting on these forums have said, ludicrous. I think the sweep swallows up this category as well. For everybody who thinks “The Artist” doesn’t have a screenplay there’ll be another voter who loves the irony of picking it here. Neither group will (probably) be big enough to determine the outcome. The momentum for “The Artist” will be. For Best Film Editing Hazanivicius (and his co-editor Ann-Sophie Bonn) has serious competition from the legendary Thelma Schoonmaker for “Hugo”. Editing is a strange line-up this year. “The Artist” and “The Descendants” collected the ACE awards. But “Moneyball” and “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” had the most noticeable editing. In such a tight category, with probably a very wide spread of votes, it just makes sense to back the most popular film overall, and that makes a trio for Hazanivicius.
So that makes four. I’d add Best Actor. I think George Clooney will struggle to overturn Dujardin. To be honest, while I liked “The Descendants” I must admit that had this role been played by Paul Giamatti I doubt it would have been shortlisted. It’s a great, subtle performance and unfortunately it will fall to the gimmick that is Dujardin. That makes five. I’d also add in Best Original Score which plays such an important and central role to “The Artist” although the eccentricity of that category over recent years makes a surprise not impossible. In that event I’d look not to John Williams’ for either nomination but rather to Howard Shore for “Hugo”. But it’s unlikely. So, there we have six Oscars for “The Artist”.
Will that be all? I think so. It’s something between a “King’s Speech” and a “Slumdog” I concede but it feels about right to me. The design features simply were not flashy enough. Cinematography remains the sticking point and the stylish black and white work could well win over the voters.
FINAL PREDICTIONS (2)
Ok so with “The Artist” out of the way, let’s move on to some of the bigger categories. Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer, and Octavia Spencer are the pre-ordained winners. Is there any possibility of this being upset? I doubt it very much. People are determined to make Davis vs. Streep a big race but I am struggling to imagine Meryl Streep taking her third Oscar, and for two reasons. Reason 1: “The Help” is considerably more popular than “The Iron Lady”. Reason 2: and this is a softer reason, it can’t be quantified, but the weight of history is still heavy. With Oprah Winfrey collecting the Hersholt Award I can see the Monday morning pictures of Davis, Spencer and Winfrey. Just like in 2001 when the image of Poitier, Washington and Berry just seemed inevitable on the Monday morning papers.
If there is going to be a surprise among the acting winners it will be Max von Sydow and I say this also for two reasons. Reason 1: Scott Rudin is a tremendous campaigner and he is armed with a silent performance in the silent movie year and a movie that at least 300 voters felt was the best of the year. Reason 2: Plummer has taken a bit of time off from campaigning in the home stretch and that could be enough to have started people tilting to a rival candidate. Of course given von Sydow’s lack of nominations elsewhere (he has just a few from smaller critics associations) we simply do not know how we might fare against Plummer with a bunch of industry insiders. They haven’t been head-to-head yet and these factors, combined, make a fairly compelling case for an upset. But am I going to predict one? Of course not. And why? Ultimately, because the condensed calendar just doesn’t allow for these sort of upsets to happen anymore (or so it seems).
In the remaining technical categories I think we’re all left scratching our heads outside of the obvious calls: “Hugo” for Art Direction; “The Muppets” for Original Song. The sound categories are particularly troublesome. The logic of the year tells us to predict “Hugo” for Sound Mixing and “War Horse” for Sound Editing. But the logic of statistics tells us that is highly unlikely (with odds of 38-1). The only time, as we all know, that the awards have been split between two films that were both nominated in both categories (hope you followed that) was the “Slumdog”/”Dark Knight” split and that saw one sweeper movie which “Hugo” won’t be. So I’m siding with my general feeling that you should never underestimate war movies in the sound categories, and you should never underestimate most people’s inability to distinguish between sound mixing and sound editing. So “War Horse” it is, for both. “Hugo” is also getting considerable attention in the Visual Effects category but I cannot understand why when we have “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” with the phenomenal work on/by Andy Serkis. Kris Tapley’s interesting correlation between Visual Effects and Art Direction would still suggest “Harry Potter” winning a swan-song award over “Hugo” winning an undeserved award. Either way, I’m picking “Rise”.
Let me make a brief detour into the animated, foreign, short, and doc categories. I’m going to breeze through most of these quickly because I’m working from buzz I hear online. I’m opting for “La Luna” (although “Fantastic Flying Books” is probably the favourite) and “Tuba Atlantica” in the short categories. “Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” is my pick for documentary short although “Saving Face” is probably the safest bet. In documentary feature, having seen them, I think the emotional appeal of “Undefeated” will see it through although “Paradise Lost 3″ has its fans, and of course “Pina” is the genuine work of art here. Animated feature will go to “Rango”. Foreign Language Film seems set for “A Separation” but will this be one of those strange years in this category. If so then “In Darkness” seems ripe for the upset given the subject matter but it still seems improbable.
Rounding off the technical categories I’m going to predict “The Iron Lady” for Best Makeup although I still detect a fantasy bias in this category over recent years and suspect “Harry Potter” could take it. Cinematography and Costume Design are both crapshoots. Cinematography should go to Lubezki on merit and it may well do. However “War Horse” has exactly the sort of photography the Academy have proven to love in the past. That being said, along with Art Direction, I’m going to opt for “Hugo” in both of these categories. It was fairly stunning visually and I think the three awards will be bunbled up, “Memoirs of a Geisha” style this year (or even “Aviator” style, although that won Editing too). I would also just say that “Hugo” could well surprise in a seemingly very unsettled Adapted Screenplay category although the WGA and Scripter wins for “The Descendants” seem to suggest that train is firmly on the track. I am still remembering the win for “Moneyball” back at the Critics Choice though and I can’t help but think it really deserves the win here and was a far more challenging adaptation. But it’s been quite anonymous throughout the season, and I supect it’ll be just that tonight.
I hope everybody enjoys tonight. It’s a fairly lack-lustre year, it’s lightweight and I think we all know that. None of these 9 movies is going down in history. But it’ll still be fun (it always is, right?) …
FULL PREDICTIONS
Picture: “The Artist” (Thomas Langman)
Achievement in Directing: “The Artist” (Michel Hazanivicius)
Actor in a Leading Role: Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”)
Actress in a Leading Role: Viola Davis (“The Help”)
Actor in a Supporting Role: Christopher Plummer (“Beginners”)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Octavia Spencer (“The Help”)
Animated Feature: “Rango” (Gore Verbinski)
Art Direction: “Hugo” (Dante Ferretti; Francesco Lo Schiavo)
Cinematography: “Hugo” (Robert Richardson)
Costume Design: “Hugo” (Sandy Powell)
Documentary Feature: “Undefeated” (T.J. Martin; Dan Lindsay; Rich Middlemas)
Documentary Short Subject: “The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom” (Lucy Walker; Kira Carstensen)
Film Editing: “The Artist” (Ann-Sophie Bonn; Michel Hazanivicus)
Foreign Language Film: “A Separation” (Asghar Farhadi)
Makeup: “The Iron Lady” (Mark Coulier; J. Roy Helland)
Original Score: “The Artist” (Ludovic Bource)
Original Song: “The Muppets” (“Man or Muppet” by Bret McKenzie)
Short Animation: “La Luna” (Enrico Casarosa)
Short Film Live Action: “Tuba Atlantica” (Hallvar Witzo)
Sound Editing: “War Horse” (Richard Hymns; Gary Rydstrom)
Sound Mixing: “War Horse” (Gary Rydstrom; Andy Nelson; Gary Johnson; Stuart Wilson)
Visual Effects: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” (Joe Letteri; Dan Lemmon; R. Christopher White; Daniel Barrett)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): “The Descendants” (Alexander Payne; Nat Faxon; Jim Rash)
Writing (Original Screenplay): “The Artist” (Michel Hazanivicus)
6 – The Artist.
3 – Hugo.
2 – The Help; War Horse.
1 – Beginners; The Iron Lady; The Muppets; Rango; Rise of the Planet of the Apes; The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom; Tuba Atlantica; Undefeated.