The General Consensus Begins to Form
Scott Feinberg sent me his final predictions and I’d say they are squarely in the general consensus – he takes a few chances in the shorts categories but for the most part, it looks like what we can pretty much figure is the way the Oscars are going to go. Gold Derby are firming up theirs, and the Gurus of Gold already put in their major predictions as well.
When I finish building our Big Fat Predictions Chart, coming at you by the end of the day, you will see that Feinberg’s picks mostly match with those. I will list them here and I will note where I think the general consensus parts ways with Feinberg.
Major Categories (Feinberg has listed every award they won, but I’m only listed what I think matters most)
Best Picture: The Artist – PGA+DGA+BAFTA
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius – DGA
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist – SAG
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help – SAG
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners – SAG
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help – SAG
Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants (Scripter+WGA)
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris WGA (The Artist will take it in a sweep; I am predicting A Separation to upset both but not for the Most Likely and it isn’t the general consensus)
The Techs:
Editing: The Artist ACE+Best Picture Winner
Cinematography: Tree of Life – ASC (I part ways with Feinberg here, though I acknowledge that in a sweep this will go The Artist’s way — I think a Best Pic/Best Director nomination for Malick is enough to earn it a win here; but The Artist is absolutely possible here….)
Art Direction: Hugo (if The Artist takes this you can turn your television off, it will win every award to follow)
Score: The Artist (similarly, if The Artist loses this it will be an early indicator that it most definitely will NOT be a sweep)
Costumes: The Artist (this feels like a gimme – people keep coming at me with this whole “The Academy likes bright colors” thing, but they seem to like period costumes best, and all of those pretty dresses…!)
Sound: Hugo CAS+BAFTA
Sound Editing: Hugo MPSE for Music (with 11 nominations they will want to reward Hugo, but obviously watch out for War Horse here – it’s a war movie, for one thing, and it won the MPSE’s major award)
Visual Effects: Hugo (Rise of the Planet of the Apes should win but I feel Hugo will get many awards because they aren’t giving it Best Picture or Best Director)
Makeup: Iron Lady
Other categories:
Doc Feature: Undefeated – again, I part ways with Feinberg here because he is going against the general consensus (I haven’t see all of the films, though, so maybe there is no general consensus right now)
Animated Feature – Rango (but I sense an upset here – I just can’t figure out yet what)
Foreign Language Feature - A Separation
Doc Short – Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom – just a hunch; and an incredibly moving film.
Live Action Short – Tuba Atlantic (my personal pick is going to be Raju, I think, Feinberg is going with Pentecost)
Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore – Feinberg has picked A Morning Stroll. I have no idea what will win but most people seem to like Flying Books best.
Song: Man or Muppet
Arguing with Feinberg a bit on Twitter yesterday about we’re not really operating from much knowledge here so much as hunches, instincts and looking at how voters have voted in the past. Generally speaking, even when you hope an upset will happen, they usually don’t. Even still, sometimes the race will go the general consensus’ way, sometimes it won’t. When Return of the King swept, fans of that film ended up scoring the highest because they naturally thought it would win everywhere, but most predictors did not. Many of us thought the King’s Speech would similarly sweep last year; it did not. Though the major awards – Picture and Director aren’t really up for grabs – the tech awards and such can be the hardest things to predict. But let’s go through them. I usually do two sets – I let egg wash all over my face for my individual predictions but for this website’s purposes, and for your Oscar pools, you should follow our “Awards Daily’s Most Likely to Succeed” because we take emotion and risk out of it.
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Totally agree about Morning Stroll and If a Tree Falls.
And a few others as well…but those are the long shot choices I agree with.
B
I got a feeling that Max Von Sydow will take it home instead of Plummer.
I don’t see the sense in making final predictions until we know which films have won the CDG.
Is predicting Chastain considered a NGNG pick at this point?
THE ARTIST winning 7 Oscars just seems to much. It’s the same as with THE KING’S SPEECH. It was expected to win best picture but it wasn’t a movie that really sweeps big time. If you look back at the history of the awards, the films that sweep usually have the epic factor attached to the film. And both THE KING’S SPEECH and THE ARTIST are rather small movies. I don’t see THE ARTIST winning art direction or supporting actress. And even though I’d love THE TREE OF LIFE to be a lock in cinematography, it isn’t. A loss there would be a shame though but uglier things have happened.
Of the four acting categories, supporting actress is the one that’s really locked up. Octavia Spencer is simply such a nice human being and every interview she’s given is so much fun. And her performance – though not a performance I really like, even though I did enjoy it – is the performance Oscar loves. She’s a showstealer. It’s a loud performance but it has some quiet moments of pain as well. And of course that pie scene. Nobody would resist that.
The other three aren’t really locks to me: Jean DuJardin is probably the safest of the three, Viola Davis – the one who really could lose. Plummer is in between. He’s a great actor, respected etc but he’s up against Max von Sydow. If there’s somebody who could win on name recognition alone, it’s von Sydow. And the standing ovation at the luncheon is a sign of huge support. Not to mention that the performance’s surprisingly fresh and touching. But Plummer’s performance is simply as touching and he has more screen time and a really much better film. So what? In the case of Plummer vs. Max von Sydow, it’s not about the performances. Or it could turn out not to be. And if you look at both of them, Max von Sydow has the really far more impressive resume and it would be a shame not to give him an Oscar. And if enough people within the Academy would love to have a less predictable Oscar night, they go with him. The moment of Max von Sydow acccepting would be too hard to resist. I don’t really know.
I believe that in the end one of the acting winners will be somebody snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild. And I feel it’s supporting actor where it could happen.
“THE ARTIST winning 7 Oscars just seems to much.”
Seems too much. Is too much.
Here’s my theory about how nice likable movies can snowball into sweeps. Voters who mark their ballots considering each category on the merits of each set of 5 nominees might very well end up with a Best Picture that’s wining Best Picture and only one or two other awards.
They know that looks weird.
Even though it used to be commonplace. Casablanca won Best Picture, Director, Screenplay. Rebecca won only Best Picture and…Best Cinematography. Period. Imagine that happening today? No way.
These days, other categories tend to ride the coattails of Best Picture. When Slumdog Millionaire won Best Sound Mixing over WALL-E and The Dark Knight, we knew early in the evening that the avalanche was happening.
Voters look at their ballots and see they’ve checked off The Artist for Best Picture and Best Actor — and nothing else… They want to fix that. They want to believe that the movie surely amounts to more than a dashing smile.
So they’ll look down the list to find way to buttress their pick for BP. It’s how they justify their choice. “well, look, the… erm… the cinematography was quite nice too.”
1000 voters all finding different ways to prop up their reason loving a lightweight film.
Because nobody wants to give Best Picture a swag bag with only one or two Oscars in it.
At this point, all I have left to hope for is that Hugo doesn’t go all True Grit on us and go home empty handed, and that the Academy doesn’t screw up Cinematography (but they will).
This is going to be a train wreck.
A Morning Stroll probably moved ahead of La Luna as the film most likely to upset Morris Lessmore with the BAFTA win, but looking at the demographics of Oscar voters, I don’t quite see how the second half would appeal to then. I still think this is Morris Lessmore’s award to lose.
Then again, I predicted The Gruffalo would win last year, so shows you what I know.
I know that the trick is not minding but….
Seven Oscars for The Artist would be be a travesty. Seven Oscars puts you in a category with some of the greatest films of all time and such recognition is totally undeserved for that forgettable piece of fluff.
Rationality has to prevail. Picture, Director and Score is plenty. Leave the technical awards to Hugo — a movie of real technical achievement.
Cinematography is a category that seems to go its own way rather than falling victim to the coattails mentality. In other words, I’d be surprised if The Artist takes this category. It would take an enormous groundswell, IMO, for that to happen. I’m still predicting Tree of Life.
The question in my mind is whether sentiment for Dolores Hart (and God) will propel the short doc about her to a victory — not to mention my wonderment over who will be creating her designer habit for the red carpet.
I totally agree with Zooey, “The Artist” isn’t a sweeper. It’s a “Forrest Gump” – six awards at best. Picture, Director, Actor, Score, Screenplay (maybe), Costumes (probably).
I think “Hugo” is going to do an “Aviator” and take home a whole load of techs, possibly have the highest win count by the end of the night – Art Direction, Cinematography, Sound Mixing, Editing, Sound Editing (possibly).
If Lubezki loses, I quit.
Jack – I agree with the Hugo Aviator comparison. And I was gearing up to predict it for Editing…. but it lost the ACE?? That too to The Descendants?? … so that kind of threw a wrench in that.
“The Academy likes bright colors” => Guilty! That was me
. As I said on Twitter, I am unsure about the costumes category, although both you and Scott did a pretty good job to convince me to switch from Anonymous to The Artist 
. Yes, I know, Anonymous is pretty crappy, but if the Academy managed to look past that and still appreciate its costumes, why couldn’t they do the same when it comes to award them? Categories like Makeup and Costumes don’t seem to care too much about the overall quality of a movie (See the abysmal Norbit nominated for Makeup), although indeed, from being nominated to actually win it, there is still a long way to go and in Anonymous’ case, they might consider the nomination itself being an award.
As for visual effects, after seeing some video montages of how Hugo was made, I feel it’s a category where it can upset Rise of the Planet of the Apes, especially because they want to justify those 11 Noms by awarding Hugo several Oscars and 4 seems like an appropriate number (2 for sound, 1 for Art Direction and 1 for visual effects). I just don’t see Hugo walking away with only 2 or 3 Oscars. I always had in mind that the fourth Oscar might be for its adapted screenplay, upsetting the more obvious choice The Descendants, but an Oscar for Visual Effects is fine too.
Original Script – I still kind of stick to The Artist, simply because the logic here is: Why would I give it BP and not Original Screenplay also? After all, without the script, there would be no movie. But three Oscars for Hazanavicius in one day (night) might be too much and they like Woody, despite his constant absence at these shows. It could go either way, although I would love it if A Separation would win this. But I am not getting my hopes up; after all, in my case, these past 10 years only four times did my “Should win Original Screenplay” matched “Won Original Screenplay”, so I am getting used to seeing my personal favorite lose.
I know many think The Artist is a better movie than The King’s Speech. I’m not in that camp. If The Artist wins 7 Oscars it will be kind of a joke. It certainly isn’t such a bad year that other films shouldn’t be awarded. And it’s sad that Hugo will not get one major award.
I see Hugo walking away with Art Direction, both Sound categories and it could upset Tree of Life in cinematography but I really hope it doesn’t. Im still predicting Tree of Life there.
Lessmore will take short animated I think. It’s just too superior to all of the others though Morning Stroll was much funnier.
I think Tuba Atlantic will take short live, with The Shore a big possibility what with the household names attached to it. They both tell a similar story but Tuba Atlantic does it much better.
Saving Face i think will take Short Doc.
The acting categories are pretty interesting apart from Supporting Actress. I sincerely doubt SAG will be 4 for 4 this year. Davis and/or Plummer will be upset by Streep and/or Von Sydow. My money is on a Davis upset mainly because of the recent snubs Streep went through (Doubt and Julie and Julia)
Costume should really be going to Jane Eyre but I see the Artist picking this up with their mini typhoon sweep along with, Editing, Actor, Director, Picture and Score.
Woody should and I’m predicting will win the Original Screenplay. If anyone has the protection against the typhoon, it’s Woody.
Adapted Screenplay and Foreign Language Film are ripe for a surprise. I’m predicting Tinker Tailor in Adapted as one of the “big surprises” of the night and I still think “A Separation” will get Best Foreign Film but will not be surprised at all if “In Darkness” takes it.
Does The Artist belong with one of these groups?
6 oscars
Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve, Forrest Gump, Chicago, Oliver!, The Godfather: Part II, The Apartment, A Place Under the Sun, A Man for All Seasons, An American in Paris.
7 oscars
Going My Way, The Best Years of Our Lives, The Bridge on the River Kwai, Lawrence of Arabia, Patton, The Sting, Star Wars, Out of Africa, Dances with Wolves, Schindler’s List, Shakespeare in Love.
8 oscars
Gone with the Wind, From Here to Eternity, On the Waterfront, My Fair Lady, Cabaret, Gandhi, Amadeus, Slumdog Millionaire.
Answer: nope
I thought Sasha was predicting a Streep win. No?
I honestly can’t believe Meryl is going to lose again. I hope she doesn’t. This was supposed to be her year, just like Julie and Julia. Just like Osage Orange County. And on and on. I also don’t know how Davis is considered the front runner when Meryl has two of the three biggest pre-cursors.
Streep has yet to begin filming August: Osage County (Sept. 2012) for a 2013 release. She will likely be the frontrunner for this brillant play and role of Violet Weston. It seems almost a certainty that a Oscar win will result for this project.
Who will remember this “The Artist” movie?? No one remember. PERIOD!
@med: isn’t she? I thought so too. Sasha?
@steve50: Take out Godfather Part II and All About Eve which are clearly on a different level than all the rest, and The Artist fits right in with that first batch.
Well if that’s the case whats the point of watching the Oscars?
I bet the Academy is going to do something that’s going to shock the audiences world wide. They need a boost in the ratings.
This race has been over since December. No need to squeeze juice out of a thoroughly sucked out orange. On to the next on. Predictions for next year??
“Take out Godfather Part II and All About Eve which are clearly on a different level than all the rest, and The Artist fits right in with that first batch.”
OK, add A Place in the Sun and it’s a deal.
Consider the other candidates in the years of GFPartII and All About Eve. Those were stunning years – and they somehow managed to spread the weath a bit. 2011 was also a great year, but nobody is considering sharing anything.
“They need a boost in the ratings.”
Well, Nik, they can have all the male acting nominees perform one song and all the female acting nominess perform the other, Glee-style. That’s what the average TV audience enjoys, isn’t it?
I posted this in the WGA thread, which will quickly get buried, so I’ll share here as well.
Although I expect The Artist to be the big winner, I do see a slight chance for a surprise. The Descendants is starting to build a little momentum now with ACE, WGA, and Scripter wins. For The Descendants to win next Sunday, this is how I see things playing out.
If it wins Editing, and then goes on to take Adapted Screenplay, that at least gives us some suspense. Because those will be awarded before we get to the big 3. If Clooney does take Best Actor, I think that would then signal an upset. And it might be one of those rare splits, where The Descendants takes Picture, and Hazanavicius takes Director.
That’s alot of ifs, but it is a scenario. I say this every year, but Editing is usually an indicator on what will unfold later. If The Artist wins Editing, it’s probably safe. However, if The Descendants takes Editing, I think the night could be interesting.
I thought Moneyball was safe to win Adapted Screenplay, but it’s looking like a shutout for that film. I think Hugo and The Artist will share most of the tech awards, and Tree of Life will land Cinematography. It’s going to be another lackluster show. And not only because The Artist will likely be the big winner, but the collection of films are extremely underwhelming. This is one of the weakest group of BP nominees we’ve had in years.
2007 seems like forever ago when we had truly superb films like No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, and Michael Clayton. There’s nothing close to those in this lineup.
Art this point the only questionable category for RotK was Adapted Screenplay. I predicted it in that category for the same reason everyone is predicting The Artist for Original Screenplay…. it was winning so much else and there was not consensus alternative. Went round and round about it in the Forums with Kris and couldn’t come up with a reason to pick anything else.
If only we would have had 10 BP noms back in 2008, that was a terrific year for movies, with one of the most exciting Oscar competitions in recent years. I remember Jon Stewart saying that it was a really dark year, with bleak and bloody movies (Sweeney Todd being my favorite not to be nominated for BP). As a whole, 2008 was the year when some truly outstanding movies were nominated and in terms of Oscar surprise winners, 2003 takes the cake.
I don’t see a split. If it didn’t happen last year, when curiously enough I had predicted everything well, except 2 shorts, doc and foreign and when the buzz for TSN was bigger than the one for The Descendants this year, I don’t see it happening. It’s going to be The Artist, although I hope its sweep will leave the original script and cinematography categories alone.
What’s holding me back from thinking that The Descendants has a shot at Editing is that it was most likely was very close between that and Hugo for the ACE. And The Artist will likely have most of the votes anyway (away from a Descendants/Hugo/even Moneyball split. But what do I know?
If Clooney wins, I will shoot myself. Dujardin all the way….
Consider the other candidates in the years of GFPartII and All About Eve. Those were stunning years – and they somehow managed to spread the weath a bit. 2011 was also a great year, but nobody is considering sharing anything.
Agreed for sure. If one was to rate 2011 just by looking at the BP nominees, I wouldn’t be surprised if they said how awful the year was. In fact, the year was pretty terrific and the wealth should definitely be spread.
In an ideal world, for me, The Artist though I did really love it, would only win for Score in 2011.
@Alexandra
I think you should hold fast to Anonymous winning Costume over The Artist, Hugo and the rest. Remember how Marie Antoinette (06) and Elizabeth (07) won costume in their respective years just for the arguable fact that they were pretty to look at…despite that their films were not as well received overall? Period films set before the 20th century always do well at the Academy
Man what is with this endless Artist bashing spree on here? Name a better movie than it this year. I can’t think of one.
And number of Oscars doesn’t mean anything… you can’t say oh Artist is worse than Titanic because it only won 5 oscars while Titanic won 10 or whatever it was.. number of oscars has much to do with quality of competitors. So… just stop talking about number of oscars like it matters.
In an ideal world, for me, The Artist, Hugo and The Tree of Life would have been the only 3 movies nominated for BP, out of those 9. Let’s say maybe Midnight in Paris too, although I wouldn’t have been too pissed to see it out. The rest would have been Shame, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Drive, Melancholia, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, A Separation, with Martha Marcy May Marlene and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy being honorable mentions.
“Man what is with this endless Artist bashing spree on here?”
It’s not going to end anytime soon. They will keep going at it for months, just wait and see.
steve50- No, it doesn’t, but frankly, most of these films didn’t deserve that many awards, or any Oscars at all.
“Many of us thought the King’s Speech would similarly sweep last year; it did not.”
I don’t think The King’s Speech was as visually alluring as The Artist, which is why TKS lost out in Art Direction, Music and other technical categories.
It is for this reason that I think The Artist will win more awards than TKS. I see 6-7 wins.
@Rex
These arguments make me doubt about The Artist’s chances of winning costumes. Anonymous has the right period and the elaborate and complex costumes and the Academy loves to award that. I am not sure how not being nominated for CDG hurts its chances, but those guilds aren’t so good at predicting the Oscar winner for costumes. A quick look at the history of those awards, compared with the Oscar winners:
————————————————————-
1999 – Pleasantville wins CDG, Shakespeare in Love wins Oscar for costumes (SiL wasn’t nominated for a CDG)
2000 – American Beauty and Sleepy Hollow win CDG, Topsy-Turvy wins Oscar (Topsy-Turvy wasn’t nominated for a CDG)
2001 – Erin Brockovich and Grinch win CDG, Gladiator wins Oscar (Gladiator wasn’t nominated for a CDG)
2002 – The Royal Tenenbaums and Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone win CDG, Moulin Rouge! wins Oscar (AGAIN, Moulin Rouge! wasn’t nominated for a CDG)
2003 – About Schmidt and Chicago win CDG, Chicago wins Oscar (The first movie to win both Oscar and CDG and also the first Oscar winner to be nominated by the CDG)
2004 – The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and A Mighty Wind win CDG, LotR wins Oscar
2005 – The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events win CDG, The Aviator wins Oscar (nominated by CDG)
2006 – Memoirs of a Geisha and Transamerica win CDG, Memoirs of a Geisha wins Oscar
2007 – Curse of the Golden Flower, The Queen and Pan’s Labyrinth win CDG, Marie Antoinette wins Oscar (not nominated by CDG)
2008 – Sweeney Todd, Blades of Glory and The Golden Compass win CDG, Elizabeth wins Oscar (nominated by CDG)
2009 – The Duchess, Slumdog Millionaire and The Dark Knight win CDG, The Duchess wins Oscar
2010 – The Young Victoria, Crazy Heart and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus win CDG, The Young Victoria wins Oscar
2011 – Alice in Wonderland wins CDG and Oscar
————————————
Therefore,
5 out of 13 won Oscar without being nominated by CDG
6 out of 13 won both an Oscar and a CDG
2 out of 13 won an Oscar, being nominated by the CDG also
Now looking at the numbers, Anonymous has even more chances of winning than I thought, since especially in the first years of the CDG, the Oscar winner for Costumes wasn’t even nominated for a CDG. I am more uncertain than before haha. Can Anonymous count as a NGNG prediction? Heck, I’ll go with what my instincts tell me and pick Hugo for CDG and Anonymous for Oscar. I don’t think that period pieces ever lost at the Oscars.
By the way, here are the costumes for The Artist in full color: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/02/15/the-artist-costumes_n_1279549.html#s699541
@Matt Not to mention that if I remember correctly, some of the sets used for The King’s Speech were also used for a porn movie lol. Imagine the embarrassment if TKS would have won for Art Direction, although I think that information was leaked after the ballots were sent in. It’s not wise to bet against a Tim Burton movie when it comes to Art Direction – none of his nominated movies EVER lost in that category (Batman, Sleepy Hollow, Sweeney Todd, Alice in Wonderland). Dark Shadows maybe will win this next year
?
Best Picture: The Artist (5 Oscar)
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life
Best Film Editing: The Artist
Best Costume Design: Hugo
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Make Up: The Iron Lady
Best Sound Mixing: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Hugo
Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Music: The Artist
Best Song: Rio
Best Animated: Rango
I don’t think Anonymous will win in the costumes category. The costumes were admirable but they didn’t shimmer like the ones in Elizabeth, The Dutchess, Marie Antoinette or The Young Victoria. And one comes away from Anonymous with a feeling of dark, moody tones. I think The Artist or Hugo takes costumes.
The funny thing about Oscars is you won’t even remember who won the Oscars the following year. Who won best supporting actress last year and the year after that? See now you are googling it.
For the 1st time in quite awhile, this year’s Oscars is shaping up to a snoozefest
I am in the Anonymous camp on Costume Design.
Best Picture : ‘The Artist’
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, ‘The Artist’
Best Actor : Jean Dujardin, ‘The Artist’
Best Actress : Meryl Streep, ‘The Iron Lady’
Best Supporting Actor : Christopher Plummer, ‘Beginners’
Best Supporting Actress : Octavia Spencer, ‘The Help’
Best Original Screenplay : Woody Allen, ‘Midnight in Paris’
Best Adapted Screenplay : Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash, ‘The Descendants’
Best Film Editing : ‘Hugo’
Best Art Direction : ‘Hugo’
Best Sound Mixing : ‘Hugo’
Best Sound Editing : ‘Hugo’
Best Score : ‘The Artist’
Best Song : ‘Man or Muppet’
Best Cinematography : ‘The Tree of Life’
Best Costume Design : ‘The Artist’
Best Documentary Feature : ‘Pina’
Best Makeup : ‘The Iron Lady’
Best Animated Film : ‘Rango’
Best Foreign Language Film : ‘A Separation’
Best Live Action Short : ‘Raju’
Best Animated Short : ‘La Luna’ (This category is kinda hard to predict… I also liked ‘The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore’)
Best Documentary Short : ‘Saving Face’
Best Visual Effects : ‘Rise of the Planet of the Apes’
@RG
I think the majority of this site’s readers can name the last two supporting actress winners without Google. LMAO, what a silly thing to say.
I know Melissa Leo won Best Supporting Actress last year, but I don’t think anybody knows who won the year after that. Octavia Spencer seems like a good bet, though.
@MickySmartyMick
My guesses (choices) pretty much line up with yours.
@Dennis I’m just saying, and im no genius, so im so sorry for that. Just trying to defuse the tension.
I’m not going to throw a fit if The Artist wins BP but I will if it sweeps. It absolutely does not deserve that. I watched it on a plane. Was squished in the window seat basically trapped and still could barely keep my attention on it. And even still I never missed a beat. You could put that DVD in at home and do your chores and catch the whole thing. I don’t think that kind of movie should be winning Best Picture but it happens. But for something that boring to sweep? Come on. And it never matter that it was on a tiny screen. That’s so bad. No epicness. No grandeur. Just a boy and his dog.
So, I’m such a fan of this website and absolutely love reading all your comments. Just gotta say that.
To add to the mix-
I’m truly baffled by all the hype for THE ARTIST. Granted, I think it’s a lovely film, a very sweet valentine to cinema in its purest form. And, I absolutely think Jean Dujardin’s performance is one for the books. I very much want him to win.
Upon my second viewing of THE ARTIST, I have to say, I was really bothered by the use of the music from VERTIGO. Not that proper credit wasn’t given – and I’m certainly not in Camp Novak – but that choice seems so arbitrary. Why not an homage to someone else, such as Chaplin during those scenes? Chaplin wrote beautiful music that would have been so much more appropriate in those scenes.
But – how is HUGO not the frontrunner? It makes the “statement” that THE ARTIST makes in a much more unforgettable, beautiful, tragic, and profound way – and does so with the classiest use of the camera and sound design this year. I was so swept away by the ambition and beauty of HUGO – I am so pulling for an upset.
But – how is HUGO not the frontrunner? It makes the “statement” that THE ARTIST makes in a much more unforgettable, beautiful, tragic, and profound way – and does so with the classiest use of the camera and sound design this year. I was so swept away by the ambition and beauty of HUGO – I am so pulling for an upset.
Love this. Well said, JV.
On Oscar night I wish I could turn off the TV and just read what you guys are writing in the comments. I really think I’d enjoy that more.
THE SURE THINGS:
- The Artist for Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Orig. Score (ala last year’s “The King’s Speech”: four is enough.)
- Octavia as Best Sup. Actress (no question asked)
- Hugo winning four tech awards (Art Direction, Costumes, Film Editing, Sound Mixing) and nothing more
- Rise of the Planet of the Apes for Best Visual Effects
- The Iron Lady for Best Make-up; and
- Woody for Midnight in Paris’ original screenplay
UPSET WINNERS
- Max von Sydow (career longevity plus very enthusiastic reception during the Nominees’ Luncheon two weeks ago and “surprise” Best Pic nod)
- In Darkness for Best Foreign Language Film (WON’T HAPPEN IN MY LIFETIME… A Separation SHOULD win, and its original screenplay nomination helps, but nobody knows anything.)
- Chico and Rita for Best Animated Feature (seen it twice since 2010 and was amazed by it)
- Guillaume Schiffman for The Artist (I can see an upset… a MAJOR MAJOR upset); and
- War Horse for Best Sound Editing (the only award that it will win; its seven nods inc. Best Picture symbolize relatively huge support from the Academy.)
I’m very close to predict two big upsets:
CHICO & RITA for animated feature but I have to check if every Oscar voter is allowed to vote in the category without having to see all the films on a screening because if that’s the case, it’s RANGO.
But I’m thinking about the possibility of HUGO shocking in visual effects. GLADIATOR won that way. And THE GOLDEN COMPASS did. I believe HUGO could win there on the strength of its whole visual conception. HARRY POTTER could be the spoiler here. But RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES? It has ONE nomination. ONE. Does it have the support?!
““Man what is with this endless Artist bashing spree on here?”
It’s not going to end anytime soon. They will keep going at it for months, just wait and see.”
The King’s Speech/The Social Network thing still going on. And just imagine if Meryl Streep takes home the trophy!
I used to follow the Oscar race really closely; less so over the past 3 years. But, still gotta retain my dignity in the Oscar pool! So, is Michelle Williams really done? About 2 months ago I was sure it was a straight line to Oscar gold (playing a famous person, winning Golden Globe, the backing of Harvey), but now it seems like she is old news. Should I dare not even think of marking her down…go with Viola Davis?
2007 – Curse of the Golden Flower, The Queen and Pan’s Labyrinth win CDG, Marie Antoinette wins Oscar (not nominated by CDG)
I thought Marie Antoinette was nominated for the CDG.
@Zooey, the animated feature category does not require voters to see all of the nominees, unlike the documentary and foreign language categories. And I love how the rules specifically call out videocassette and DVD as ineligible for those two categories, leaving Blu-ray somewhat undefined (DVDs had been out for many years before they added that format to the ineligible definition).
But the main reason I’m writing is to inquire about progress on the big fat predictions chart. Has it been posted and I just haven’t found it? Thanks — that is my most useful tool every year!