Wonders in the Dark Oscar Preview
I have a few bones to pick with these guys – the first is that they say the only dark horse that can possibly beat The Artist is The Help. I don’t think any film can beat it. But it probably almost impossible for a film without a director nod nor a screenplay nod to win, even if all of the actors voted for it. They also talk director. The only reason I think Scorsese might split the vote is the Oliver stat, which says that no musical/comedy Globes winner since 1968 has gone on to win Picture AND Director at the Oscars (Driving Miss Daisy, Shakespeare in Love and Chicago all split).
The Artist might finally be that movie to break that long stat. Seven BAFTAS is insane. You have to figure The Artist for Picture, Director – probably screenplay (I’m predicting A Separation or Midnight in Paris), Actor, and then it will get some trouble from Hugo in the techs. It has costume and score walking through the door. It will probably win at least six Oscars, I figure. I don’t think the awards will split like they did last year, where the King’s Speech broke the record for the least amount of Oscars won for a film with 12 nominations. I think The Artist has a potential sweep or partial sweep of the categories headed its way. You don’t feel a backlash or much competition coming from any other movie. But who knows, right? Anyway, worth a watch:
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I just wonder about what the ratings for the Oscar telecast will be like. Will the fact the best picture winner is something nobody wants to see affect viewership? The younger TG whom the Academy is trying to attract has probably never seen a silent film and will probably wonder what the fuss is about.
Ratings for the show were great when Titanic and LOTR won. I think that even when The Artist eventually airs on TV the ratings might not be great. How do you market this film to the youth? Even Harvey is finding this tough.
Also you can forget about a split or any other film remotely challenging The Artist on Oscar night. That is what makes the top award boring unlike actress, actor, both the screenplay categories, sound.
6 Oscars? Score is a lock, and I can see Picture, Director, Actor, and MAYBE Screenplay and Costumes if they’re feeling generous. Cinematography won’t happen (probably Tree of Life), and Editing is probably somebody else’s.
The Artist WILL win
Picture
Director
Actor
Score
Thats four guaranteed. The next ones are close to beig locks but not quite yet.
Costumes
Screenplay
With that said I expect 5 oscars for Picture, Director, Actor, Score and Costumes
So that’s six possible, but now we get to the highly unlikely nominations. There have been mumblings that it will win these but, I just can’t see it happening.
Cinemetography
Editing
And these two, you can count on the Artist not winning
Art Direction
Supporting Actress
Since everything is sponsored these days, let’s have the Oscar ratings presented by Freddie Krueger, since they WILL be a Nightmare on Hollywood Blvd.
Sasha, I had no idea this interview had been posted already, as I don’t believe it is slated to go up at our site until next week. But I am thrilled for this great honor, and thank you exceedingly for it!
I also realize that THE ARTIST cannot be beaten at this point, and as a big fan of the film I welcome it’s annointment, even if at the expense of the only film this past year I rate above it: THE TREE OF LIFE. The matter of THE HELP was broached because of all the SAG love, but yes, realistically it would seem an impossibility for any film to win without a director and acreenplay nod. My colleague Dennis still holds out the possibility of it’s still happening, but I know it would be unprecedented. HUGO and THE DESCENDANTS would admittedly be the films that would be next up, but against this is one year that the verdict has been sealed.
I do see THE ARTIST winning for:
Picture
Director
Actor
Score
Editing
with several others still possible (screenplay, cinematography, costumes, Supporting Actress)
Anyway, again this was really a great honor, and thanks so much to you and Ryan!
So I’m glad that I’m not the only one who thinks that Bejo can definitely win. I don’t think it’s a lock for Octavia despite the fact that she’s won everything else.
Bejo can take it at the last minute in an Artist sweep.
There is no Titanic or Lord of the Rings nominated this year that would create higher than nominal ratings . A lot of people watch the Oscars to see what the woman are wearing. upsets are always possible. The Academy should never nominate a film just to get higher ratings.
For PaulH. The ARTIST IS A BETTER FILM THAN TITANIC OR ALL 3 LOR FILMS .
I see The Artist winning:
Picture
Director
Actor
Score
Costume
Editing OR Cinematography
I think “The Artist” already has in its bag:
1. Picture
2. Score
almost in its bag:
1. Director
2. Actor
3. Screenplay
50 % chances:
1. Costumes
Less than 50 % chances
1. Editing
2. Cinematography
3. Supporting Actress
No way:
Art Direction
Great to see Sam and Dennis featured at this prestigious site! And they are as infectious as ever. I think the idea of naming The Help as a fronrunner was to acknowledge the apparent Hollywood love for the film. I agree with everyone that The Artist is a 99.9 certainty. After all the votes for the silent film are added up it is possible that The Help might be next in total votes, even without the script and director’s nods. I don’t say I believe this myself, but certainly it is possible.
Original Screenplay is the most interesting category this year. I guess everyone probably thinks it’s now Midnight in Paris vs The Artist, but A Separation is a really big contender in my opinion.
I honestly thought Midnight in Paris’s screenplay was just good. Simply including so many legendary writers in the movie doesn’t make it a good script.
A very entertaining clip! It’s always a treat to see or hear film bloggers (e.g., Sasha, Ryan, Craig Kennedy) in podcasts or audio clips. Sam’s and Dennis’s enthusiasm and knowledge are no exception.
I don’t think Woody’s screenplay will win, though. The novelty of awarding the script of a silent film would be a statement the Academy couldn’t pass up. I think The Artist will win pic, director (sorry, Marty), actor, screenplay, score. Costumes probably, as Sandy Powell (Hugo) has won several times before and last time she won (Young Victoria) her acceptance speech might be viewed as not gracious enough.
Love the night setting outside the multiplex! Sam with that Brooklyn sound is a hoot, but a very articulate one. Dennis lends his own insights to this vibrant discussion. I’m an Artist fan, and agree with the predictions. I’m thinking Davis will edge Streep and Dujardin will triumph.
“For PaulH. The ARTIST IS A BETTER FILM THAN TITANIC OR ALL 3 LOR FILMS”
Hoo man, I want what you’re smokin, Ed!
Sam, you da man! This interview is an instant classic.
I can’t see Scorsese winning after the DGA loss, personally.
I see The Artist winning Picture, Director, Actor, Editing, Art Direction, Cinematography, Score=7
The Artist will definitely win: Pic, Director, Best Actor, Score
It has high chances of winning Best Screenplay
And lower chances of winning Editing and Costumes.
These are all the awards that it could win, it can forget about winning more than 7 awards. I would say 5, because they will probably feel that last year many people rolled their eyes with The King’s Speech which had so many noms and won only 4. Predicting the editing will be tricky, since at the Eddies, The Artist and Hugo are nominated in two separate categories and they are the frontrunners. Not so sure about the costumes, I wouldn’t bet against Sandy Powell, especially since the Academy likes to award costumes with vibrant colors, unlike those from The Artist, which didn’t really represent a challenge in terms of using the right palette. In that category, I’m between Hugo and Anonymous – yes, Anonymous, despite not having a CDG nom. Speaking about Anonymous, yeah, why didn’t the costumes get nominated at the CDGs? Not eligible? Not submitted? Not interesting enough?
PaulH , I don’t smoke . You’ve said so many stupid things about the Artist I can’t renmember which film you want to win BP AND please don’t say anything but the ARTIST.
Love these guys. They need their own show. Good stuff!
I’d watch this in one sitting if it was 17 hours long. Way to go, Sam, Denis and Jason!
I’m so sick of people knocking the Academy Awards, as if it’s the hip, sophisticated thing to do. The Oscars a sham? Ask anyone who has had the great fortune to win one whether they’re a sham. The Oscar remains the greatest and highest award in entertainment. But they’re teetering on their pedestal. Not because they’re not honoring Dark Knights or girls with dragon tattoos or a Harry Potter. But because they are trying every which way to do so.
So many people who visit this site forget (as has AMPAS’ current president and its Board of Governors) that the Oscars weren’t designed for the public. They were never intended to be a barometer of public opinion. The awarding of Oscars is a purely industry affair to which the television audience has been invited for the past 50-odd years. In retrospect, where the Oscars went wrong, I think, is exactly when they invited television to the party. The awards, televised, became an even greater marketing tool for the studios, something they couldn’t do without. Would that they could. Television destroys everything it touches because of the ratings game. If I had my druthers, the Oscars would go back to the simple, yet glamorous banquets where artists honored their fellow artists without the benefit of the TV cameras – to make the awards, once again, a purely industry affair. I am deeply concerned that the academy forgot its original ideals when it increased the best picture slate two years ago. In theory and in practice, it was a transparent attempt to increase TV ratings by nominating box-office hits that ordinarily would not have been considered Oscar-caliber. The academy, years ago, did honor box office hits (and got nailed for it, by the way). But those hits were also Oscar-worthy. The major studios of today have lost their once native genius of making films that are both popular and artistic successes. Consequently, in today’s movie climate, the academy should not be pandering to an increasingly – yes – dumbed-downed audience by embracing the industry’s dumbed-down fare. If they cave in to current popular taste, it is then, and only then, that the awards will become a “sham.”
Sam and Dennis, you wonderfully convey the excitement and fun of the Oscar race. What a great way to show how much movies matter!
Sasha,
Re: your statistic that no comedy/musical has won Picture/Director since 1968, how about Annie Hall? I know it’s not a laugh out loud comedy but Woody Allen IS known for serious comedies, it was nominated in the Comedy categories at the Golden Globes and for the Academy’s taste, it was as much a Comedy as Driving Miss Daisy i.e. a “smaller” film compared to epics like Star Wars that still managed to pull down Picture and Director.
Thanks for posting this wonderful discussion between Sam & Dennis. Great to see such passionate debate about films in a year when most winners already seem decided. Although I am still not sure about best director. Previously, I was certain it would be Scorsese but now not so sure. It will be a very close vote for the directing category though.