A major crutch has been pulled out from under Oscar voters this year and that’s their reliance on the DGA and the PGA. For now we’ll focus on how the DGA’s date change could affect the Best Director nominations, expanding on a Twitter conversation I had with Ashley Reynolds regarding Paul Thomas Anderson. The way I see it, the Weinstein Co. will get one of their directors in but they’ll have to make a choice, Sophie. Paul Thomas Anderson vs. Quentin Tarantino vs. David O. Russell.
As it stands right now, Russell has the momentum. But since we won’t see if the DGA chooses him first, we have to rely on the Academy doing that on their own. If you’ve been following the Oscar race for a while you know that there is usually one or two non-matches from DGA to Academy. That’s because the Academy’s directing branch is around 400 where the DGA membership is around 9,000. So while the Oscars might represent a select poll of first-class directors, if you multiply that sampling by a factor of 20 you’re likely to see a much broader range of taste. With that in mind, we can expect the DGA to choose titles with more popular appeal and Russell would have a better shot. PTA has a better shot with the smaller sampling, I figure.