Gold Derby now has Les Miserables back in the lead. The pundits who are now predicting it to win include: Pete Hammond (Deadline), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Ed Douglas (ComingSoon), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere) and it looks like Dave Karger, too, might be swayed to throw his vote that way. Kris Tapley is already on record predicting not just a Best Picture win but a sweep, with the potential for a record amount of nominations. It will enter the race with 12 nominations, according to Tapley and others.
The holdouts, at least for now, include myself, Anne Thompson, Steve Pond and Scott Feinberg. But who knows how that might change. Tom Hooper would have to win the DGA and Les Mis would have to win the SAG ensemble and then the PGA.
It’s a risky proposition to predict a film to win without the critics having rung in, though I feel like I’m the last person in the world who even pays attention to critics. Many are saying it won’t matter, that the raves will pour in. If true, this will mark the first year I can remember where a movie came in late, didn’t get any reviews and took the lead in the Oscar race. Does that mean the critics no longer matter?