It’s hard to believe a whole year has flown by that we were all studiously predicting The Tree of Life and Hugo to win Best Picture at the New York Film Critics only to then see that award go to The Artist. They aren’t as off base with Oscar as you might think. For instance, our trusty Nate Silver Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has compiled nominees chart that says if you win the New York Film Critics you have a 90% chance of getting of nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. 90% if you win Best Actor, and 90% if you win animated feature. Winning both, the percentage drops to 40%. Best Actor has a slightly better percentage, 42%.
To see how the winners have matched up with Oscar check out our handy dandy chart at the bottom of this post, which also features Los Angeles. Last year LA went a different way than the entire universe and chose The Descendants. But Oscar, well, he went with the status quo on down the line.
You can see that LA and NY can agree and still Oscar might go a different way but if you had to pick between the two groups, New York has a better batting average than Oscar, which means, their taste is far more aligned with the steak eaters than they probably care to admit. Well, it’s either that or they have greater influence, you know, the whole “New York is smarter than Los Angeles” mentality. Either way, we will be finding out on Monday morning what they pick for Best Film. Their awards will trickle down beginning at 7am LA time. They vote and announce, vote and announce.
Now on to the predictions. Last year I ended up going with Hugo, changing my predictions from Tree of Life at the last minute. It didn’t matter because the NYFCC picked The Artist. They usually go for the best reviewed film of the year, though not always. Let’s take a quick look at the Metacritic scores for their recent winners going back five years:
2011: The Artist – 89
2010: The Social Network – 95
2009-The Hurt Locker-94