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Los Angeles Film Critics Preview and Predictions Contest

This Sunday, the Los Angeles Film Critics will announce their awards. LA has been known to occasionally step out of the zone – they chose The Descendants last year, There Will Be Blood the year No Country was sweeping. It is nonetheless assumed that their winner will still be Zero Dark Thirty. The only possible upset, I figure, will be The Master. One of their members, and writer of the Gold Standard, Glenn Whipp, said on Twitter that he didn’t think the LA critics were going to go for Zero Dark Thirty.

ENTER OUR CONTEST!

What our Oscar wonk, Marshall Flores has to say about them:

Here are some stats and trends that may help in predicting the LAFCAs. On average, a LAFCA Best Film winner wins 3 awards total, compared to an average of 2 total at the NYFCC and the NBR. This is due to a a number of factors: Film and Screenplay are more likely to match at LAFCA (44%) than either NYFCC or the NBR (18% and 33%, respectively); Best Film gets both Director and Screenplay 3.5 times as often than at the NYFCC and the NBR. LAFCA also has additional tech awards (cinematography, production design and original score). At LAFCA, the Best Film winner gets Director 60% of the time, an acting award 51% of the time, and a tech award 27% of the time.

Regarding BP, NYFCC and NBR have matched 10 times during the lifespan of the LAFCA. LAFCA has gone along with its East Coast peers only three times (Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network). Of the 7 times LAFCA went a different route with BP, the LAFCA prevailed over NYFCC + NBR at the Oscars three times, all three occurring within the first 10 years of LAFCA’s existence. Since then, however, the coastal divergence has gone in favor of the NYFCC + NBR combo. It must be noted that a film that wins at least two of the LAFCA, NYFCC, and NBR is very likely (90+%) to be Oscar nominated; in fact, the only film to have not done so is Leaving Las Vegas.

The coastal comparison in Director is a bit more hazy. NYFCC and NBR have coincided 12 times in this category since LAFCA was created. LAFCA has gone along with them 5 times; in the 7 cases LAFCA dissented, only once did the LAFCA winner come out on top at the Oscars (Milos Forman over David Lean in 1984). NYFCC + NBR prevailed twice (Jonathan Demme in 1991, The Coens in 2007), and in the other 4 cases an entirely different director won (usually the DGA winner except in 1995, when Mel Gibson won for Braveheart). Like with BP, any director who wins at least two of the three groups is extremely likely (95%) to be Oscar nominated; the only anomaly occurred in 1995 (again!!), when Ang Lee won both the NBR and NYFCC but was inexplicably left off the Best Director lineup at the Oscars.

Sometimes when Picture and Director split, the director goes on to win Best Picture too, like Peter Jackson for Return of the King. Also worth noting, Kathryn Bigelow won Picture and Director from New York and Los Angeles before going on to win the Oscar too.

New York has a much better track record for predicting Best Picture, with 7 matches since 2000, whereas LA has only four.  Though in fairness, matching with Oscar does not appear to be the LA Film Critics’ goal.

My predictions for LAFCA (we’ll do a more thorough list before Sunday):

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Supporting Actor: Matthew McCoughaughey
Supporting Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln
Screenplay: Lincoln (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Cinematography: (something completely obscure or) The Master
Production Design: The Master
Score: The Master
Animation: Frankenweenie

The Chart

LAFCA | New York Film Critics | Oscar – Best Picture

*Also nominated for best picture

2010 Zero Dark Thirty
2010 The Descendants The Artist The Artist
2010 The Social Network* The Social Network* The King’s Speech
2009 The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
2008 Wall-E Milk* Slumdog Millionaire
2007 There Will Be Blood* No Country for Old Men+ No Country
2006 Letters from Iwo Jima* United 93  The Departed
2005 Brokeback Mountain* Brokeback Mountain* Crash
2004 Sideways* Sideways* Million Dollar Baby
2003 American Splendour Return of the King Return of the King
2002 About Schmidt Far From Heaven Chicago
2001 In the Bedroom* Mulholland Drive A Beautiful Mind
2000 Crouching Tiger* Traffic* Gladiator
1999 The Insider* Topsy-Turvy American Beauty
1998 Saving Private Ryan* Saving Private Ryan* Shakespeare in Love
1997 L.A. Confidential* L.A. Confidential* Titanic
1996 Secrets & Lies* Fargo* The English Patient
1995 Leaving Las Vegas Leaving Las Vegas Braveheart
1994 Pulp Fiction* Quiz Show* Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List+ Schindler’s List
1992 Unforgiven+ The Player Unforgiven
1991 Bugsy* The Silence of the Lambs+ Silence of the Lambs
1990 Goodfellas* Goodfellas* Dances With Wolves
1989 Do the Right Thing My Left Foot* Driving Miss Daisy
1988 Little Dorrit The Accidental Tourist* Rain Man
1987 Hope and Glory* Broadcast News* The Last Emperor
1986 Hannah and Her Sisters* Hannah and Her Sisters* Platoon
1985 Brazil Prizzi’s Honor* Out of Africa
1984 Amadeus+ Passage to India* Amadeus
1983 Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment+ Terms of Endearment
1982 E.T.* Gandhi+ Gandhi
1981 Atlantic City* Reds* Chariots of Fire
1980 Raging Bull* Ordinary People+ Ordinary People
1979 Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer+ Kramer Vs. Kramer
1978 Coming Home* The Deer Hunter+ The Deer Hunter
1977 Star Wars* Annie Hall+ Annie Hall
1976 Network* All the President’s Men* Rocky
1975 Dog Day Afternoon* Nashville* One Flew Over/Cukoo’s Nest
1974 Armacord Godfather II
1973 La Nuit Américaine The Sting
1972 Viskningar och rop The Godfather
1971 A Clockwork Orange* The French Connection
1970 Five Easy Pieces* Patton
1969 Z* Midnight Cowboy
1968 Lion in Winter* Oliver
1967 In the Heat of the Night+ In the Heat of the Night
1966 A Man for All Seasons* A Man for all Seasons
1965 Darling* the Sound of Music
1964 My Fair Lady+ My Fair Lady
1963 Tom Jones+ Tom Jones
1962 none Lawrence of Arabia
1961 West Side Story+ West Side Story
1960 The Apartment+ Billy Wilder, The Apartment
1959 Ben Hur+ Ben Hur
1958 THe Defiant Ones* Gigi
1957 Bridge on the River Kwai+ Bridge on the River Kwai
1956 Around the World in 80 Days+ Around/World in 80 Days
1955 Marty+ Delbert Mann, Marty
1954 On the Waterfront+ Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront
1953 From Here to Eternity+ From Here to Eternity
1952 High Noon* The Greatest Show on Earth
1951 Streetcar Named Desire* An American in Paris
1950 All About Eve+ All About Eve

Here are the members:

The LAFCA members:

STEPHEN FARBER, PRESIDENT
TIM GRIERSON, VICE PRESIDENT
JUSTIN CHANG, SECRETARY
ALONSO DURALDE, TREASURER

ROBERT ABELE
LEONARD KLADY
JOHN POWERS
DAVID ANSEN
ANDY KLEIN
CLAUDIA PUIG
ANDREW BARKER
ROBERT KOEHLER
PETER RAINER
CHARLES CHAMPLIN
CHRISTY LEMIRE
MICHAEL RECHTSHAFFEN
JUSTIN CHANG
EMANUEL LEVY
HARRIET ROBBINS
PETER DEBRUGE
SHERI LINDEN
JAMES ROCCHI
ALONSO DURALDE
LAEL LOEWENSTEIN
BETSY SHARKEY
DAVID EHRENSTEIN
KARINA LONGWORTH
RICHARD SCHICKEL
ANNLEE ELLINGSON
JUSTIN LOWE
HENRY SHEEHAN
STEPHEN FARBER
WADE MAJOR
BRENT SIMON
F.X. FEENEY
LEONARD MALTIN
CHARLES SOLOMON
SCOTT FOUNDAS
WILLARD MANUS
BOB STRAUSS
TODD GILCHRIST
TODD MCCARTHY
ELLA TAYLOR
MIKE GOODRIDGE
MYRON MEISEL
KEVIN THOMAS
JAMES GREENBERG
JOE MORGENSTERN
LUKE Y. THOMPSON
RAY GREENE
AMY NICHOLSON
KENNETH TURAN
TIM GRIERSON
MARK OLSEN
GLENN WHIPP
KIRK HONEYCUTT
JEAN OPPENHEIMER
CHUCK WILSON
MARK KEIZER
HJ PARK
ALYNDA WHEAT