The Los Angeles Film Critics will announce tomorrow — and soon the Golden Globes and SAG. And that will pretty much be it until the Oscar ballots go out on the 17th of December.  Between the time they are turned in and nominations announcements, the DGA and PGA will announce. So we will have no idea what movies are the consensus pick by the Academy.  We have a good sense of how they will go.  The Gurus of Gold have a pretty good track record, but get better as December winds down. Let’s take a look at this week’s:

It’s a goodly race so far this year, looking like the least predictable in a while. One straight shooter remains Anne Thompson — who says, as we’ve been saying, that it’s down to Lincoln vs. Zero Dark Thirty. Two movies about settling things. Or not. Two movies about fixing something that feels permanently broken. Bravery, heroism – America at war. So far, 2012 is one hell of a year for film. If it does come down to these two movies, they are both equally deserving. And in fact the votes might split. I suspect Zero Dark Thirty will make a decent amount of coin, too, being that it’s about the Bin Laden raid. No film, though, is going to beat Lincoln at the box office.

$90 million and still only in 2,000 theaters, Lincoln is on track to make bank.  It might even edge upwards of $130 mil.   Sure, Oscar winners aren’t always about box office, but all the better when a movie no one thought could make that much money, does. It renews faith in American audiences that if you build it, they will come.

Let’s take a look back at the Gurus around this time of year.

On December 6 of 2011, the Gurus had all 9 of Oscar’s Best Picture nominees lineup up:

1. The Artist
2. War Horse
3. The Decendants
4. Hugo
5. Midnight in Paris
6. The Help
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. Moneyball
9. The Tree of Life

December 7 of 2010, the Gurus already had nine out of ten Best Picture nominees lined up:

1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Inception
4. Toy Story 3
5. True Grit
6. Black Swan
7. The Kids are All Right
8. The Fighter
9. 127 Hours
10. Rabbit Hole <–Winter’s Bone was at number 11.  The previous week it tied with Rabbit Hole but Rabbit Hole pulled ahead.  I had Winter’s Bone down and not Rabbit Hole, for what it’s worth.

December 8, 2009 is somewhat embarrassing. We had Up in the Air, which ended up getting completely shut out of any wins at the Oscars, on top to win. And Precious at number 2. In MY defense, at least I had The Hurt Locker at 2, though I did have Nine at number 4 and An Education completely off my list.  But that shows you how different our perceptions were that Bigelow could even win back then.  Things changed after Jim Cameron won the Golden Globe.  We had 8/10 right back then, even as wrong as we were.

1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3.  The Hurt Locker
4. Invictus
5. Up
6. An Education
7. Nine
8. Inglourious Basterds
9. Avatar
10. A Serious Man

December 9, 2008 the Gurus had all of the Best Picture nominees – EXCEPT ONE.  Two people, Eugene Hernandez and Glenn Whipp had The Reader at number 5, neither (correctly) picked the Dark Knight.

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Milk
4. Frost/Nixon
5. The Dark Knight

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  • Eric

    Unrelated: But Charlie Rose had a great segment on Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal and Zero Dark Thirty a couple days ago:

  • Bball_Jake

    The Oscars are so predictable and its getting boring. Everyone always knows what the nominees are going to be. I wish they would throw in some surprises, but Im not expecting anything else than whats shown on the top ten up there.

  • SK404

    Lincoln is already losing theatres. This is as wide as it’s going to go. It’s going to top out at around $125 million or so. Pretty good, but could have been way better. They got caught off-guard by how well it did, and didn’t know what to do.

    That piece of shit may be the “frontrunner” right now, but Zero Dark is going to take it. It is far and away the better film and doesn’t rely on terrible one-liners and one note performances to win its audience over. I feel sorry for people who think Lincoln is an intelligent film. It is straight-forward, mainstream shlock.

  • SK404

    I’m sure Kubrick would have hated Lincoln just as he did Schindler’s List. Finding success stories in the holocaust and slavery is just irresponsible filmmaking. Slavery and the holocaust were about the absolute failure of society, not fucking success.

    But of course, our idiotic society just eats this shit up and calls it smart.

  • Just been out back to check my beehive. Seems I’m missing one. Keep an eye out for it, would y’all? SK404, could you see if it’s in your bonnet?

  • SK404

    That failure of a wise-crack would have fit well in Lincoln.

  • moonpie

    And of course, every society has some bullshitters like SK404 here who pretend to know what the heck he spews out and feel pretty smart for coughing out a few incomprehensible pop-words. And thank goodness, there are always only very few minority sitting in their little cells. Either he’s a bullshitter or even worse one of those southerner nutjob who still can’t get over his great greatfathers lost the civil wars and so passionately believe that the slavery will be self-ended in due time. Forget that the millions would’ve been continued to be sold and killed off like some dirt bags even in that case, after all, it wasn’t him or his great-great fathers, right? Humans are curious creatures indeed, why else keep insisting on popping on these embarrassments endlessly?

  • Mattoc

    How about…

    Just been out back to check my Gumtree. Seems I’m missing a branch. Keep an eye out for it, would y’all? SK404, could you see if it’s up your ass?

  • SK404

    What are you talking about? I’m not saying that the 13th Amendment shouldn’t have been passed, I’m saying that focusing a movie on a bunch of fat, comfortable white men and their great achievements is irresponsible. Films should focus on the complete failure of society that led to slavery, not the handful of people who responded many, many years after it began.

    You clearly misinterpreted what I was saying. Southerner nutjob? Maybe the complete fucking opposite.

  • SK404

    “Just been out back to check my Gumtree. Seems I’m missing a branch. Keep an eye out for it, would y’all? SK404, could you see if it’s up your ass?”

    And the Lincoln circle-jerk continues. Kubrick is rolling in his grave right now.

  • SK404

    People should be watching Night and Fog, not Schindler’s List where Spielberg uses the water vs. gas scenerio in an attempt at creating suspense.

  • SK404


  • Mattoc

    Would you believe “panties in a bunch”?

  • Tim

    well, SK404, state that fact, if you must. Simply saying Lincoln is “that piece of shit” give you no favor, no benefit of doubt. And of course, by no means, Lincoln is this little perfect utopia film. It’s a bloody hollywood film, made for profit, backed by individuals from a major studio to make some dough. There is no hollywood film that is perfect. Calling it a piece of shit would question your motives -and justly so. If it’s the truth you want, there’s always documentary. Sure Lincoln could’ve had slaves’ active involvement to end slavery and the list goes on and on. But the film is for 2:30 AND it’s about Lincoln and Lincoln only -and his effort to pass the 13th amendment. It’s NOT about why slavery came about or how slave’s life was like. No. That wasn’t the point. And it’s bound to be simplified if it’s for 2:30. There’s no point to argue how Lincoln wasn’t really for the end of slavery in his earlier years or he was this perfect man. What’s the point? It’s about his last 3 months of his life. Whatever his position was, by then he’s pretty dead set on ending slavery, no need to explain how his mind has evolved (could’ve helped maybe, but not necessary as it’s assumed).

  • SK404

    Thanks for the level-headed response, Tim. I can see what you’re saying, but I think there are better and more important stories to tell from that era. Sugarcoating it irks me. I’m more interested in Steve McQueen’s upcoming film.

  • I’m more interested in Steve McQueen’s upcoming film.

    You better come up for air quick before you drown in your own credibility GIRLFRIEND!!!

    And the Lincoln circle-jerk continues. Kubrick is rolling in his grave right now.

    Kubrick and Spielberg were friends. And count me out of this Lincoln circle-jerk. I haven’t even seen it.

  • Tim

    Also, gimme a break. Who do you think will go to movie theaters in United Stupid of America these days to watch some folks passing a legislative motion from 1860s when there is no vampires, no car blowing dumb-dumb is involved? Yep, “fat, comfortable” old white folks. Of course the film made for profit is tailored made for them? Do you even need to think further? If you do, you’re kidding yourself. And you think “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirsty” aren’t? Hollywood, by and large, even when no vampires and blowing shit up are involved, made for white folks, who STILL are the majority of this country who can afford to cough off $14 to sit in a dingy little room for 2 hours, even when they are no longer the absolute majority. In any case, Lincoln is by no freaking mean a piece of shit. A piece of shit is forever designated for a piece of shit like Twilight, m’okay?

  • SK404

    “You better come up for air quick before you drown in your own credibility GIRLFRIEND!!!”

    Twelve Years a Slave will destroy Lincoln in terms of quality and importance. Do you even know who Steve McQueen is? I’m guessing not…

    “Kubrick and Spielberg were friends.”

    Yeah, and Kubrick was very vocal about his hatred of Schindler’s List.

    “Lincoln is by no freaking mean a piece of shit.”

    Yeah, it kind of is. But I would expect nothing less than for Sasha’s minions to jump at the suggestion that it is.

  • Mattoc

    Steve McQueen? Everyone knows who he is. I loved him in Towering Inferno.

  • Les Mis and Django could give Lincoln some competition at the box office. Amazed and pleased at how well Lincoln has done.

  • Tim

    You’d better come up with even worse term for Twilight then. If Lincoln is kinda piece of shit, Twilight is _______. Ready, SK404? If you can’t answer this, even though I can understand your rage to a certain degree, I can’t really buy your argument.

  • Mattoc

    A ” coven” of shit?

  • SK404

    “Twilight is _______.”

    A slightly larger piece of shit.

  • Do you even know who Steve McQueen is? I’m guessing not…

    I would rather you didn’t guess things about me, SK404. I saw Hunger days after its release in the UK in late 2008. I travelled for over 18 hours by bus, ferry and train to see a screening of Shame followed by a Q&A with McQueen just a month before its release, paying for this on a very low salary. I own both Hunger and Shame on DVD; both are among my favourite films. I’m also aware of his work as a Turner Prize-winning visual artist.


  • SK404

    Then why would I be drowning in my own credibility for wanting to see one of his films?

  • helios

    I haven’t seen Lincoln but SK404 is right about Schindler’s List. There is nothing uplifting about the Holocaust. And at the end of the film, we cry for who exactly? Not the real victims I would say.

  • Jerry is projecting ZD30 to only make $55 Million total for it’s entire domestic run. I believe 100% that ZD30 can win BP but I won’t go so far as to say it will be close to the box office hit that Lincoln has turned out to be. They are pushing the film all the way until January 11th before it goes wide. Hoping a BP nomination will motivate the public to see it so they aren’t confident in it being a box office draw at all.

  • The guilds might still fall in Lincoln’s favor. The bad Les Mis reviews hurt it even there.

  • Nic V

    ***I haven’t seen Lincoln but SK404 is right about Schindler’s List. There is nothing uplifting about the Holocaust. And at the end of the film, we cry for who exactly? Not the real victims I would say.***

    You wouldn’t cry for the victims unless you could relate or had some relationship with the victims. You might empathize. You might feel a degree of discomfort by what you witness. If you’ve read any of the real life experiences of the Holocaust victims you’ll find that Schindler’s List comes about as close to actually realizing the terror imposed upon millions of people [not only Jews] during that era. And yet as Spielberg only detailed the surival of “Schindler’s” Jews the range of atrocities that existed are not even addressed. So that you still don’t or can’t even begin to imagine the full extent of the wrath of the holocaust.

    The numbers of survivors of the Holocaust are rapidly diminishing and it won’t be long before any relative source we have for the Holocaust will be the written page. For those of us who had families who “disappeared” during that time and later found where they disappeared too Schindler’s List was a very uncomfortable experience. Uncomfortable because the written word only allows the imagination to accept what it will or can handle before mind shuts itself off. Having someone splash it across the screen for you is quite unsettling.

    So before you start to trash something you cannot relate too because you have no emotional tie to the subject or the issue or the horror of it, it would seem to me that it would be wise to temper your opinion.

  • MoviePooch

    I’m sorry, but I don’t find the overall portrayal of the holocaust in Schindler’s List, and all of the senseless death and sadistic acts of murder in that film, particularly uplifting. But I do find the personal story of Oscar Schindler very intriguing, and ultimately a ray of hope for humanity during a time of such evil. So how is that a bad thing? What stands out for me is the moral ambiguity of Oscar Schindler. It’s a movie about a member of the Nazi party, an unscrupulous womanizer, gambler, and war profiteer who exploited Jewish slave labor to amass a fortune and live an excessive, hedonistic lifestyle. And somehow this man, who seemingly had no moral core, found the courage and virtue to do the right thing despite the danger to his person, wealth and influence. Quite fascinating and aspirational really, particularly because the story of Oscar Schindler is true. But hardly uplifting. There are plenty of other horrific and depressing portrayals of the holocaust out there, including several documentaries, if that’s all you want to see. Or perhaps visit the Holocaust museum or listen to the actual voices of survivors and witnesses through the USC Shoah Foundation Institute for Visual History and Education, which was established by Steven Spielberg following the making of Schindler’s List.

  • SK404

    “So before you start to trash something you cannot relate too because you have no emotional tie to the subject or the issue or the horror of it, it would seem to me that it would be wise to temper your opinion.”

    You have no idea the emotional tie I have to the subject. No idea.

    Night and Fog is really the only film about the holocaust that should be watched. It’s not made for entertainment, it doesn’t try to manipulate its way into a suspenseful situation. It’s the truth.

  • MoviePooch

    “Night and Fog is really the only film about the holocaust that should be watched.”

    What an arrogant statement.

    There are a plethora of stories both about, and related to the holocaust, both large and small, that have merit and deserve to be told. And by the way… the story of Oscar Schindler is also the truth.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    Fuck me. Someone’s angry. Get out of the house already.

  • rufussondheim

    For the record, I am none of these people!

  • SK404

    “There are a plethora of stories both about, and related to the holocaust, both large and small, that have merit and deserve to be told.”

    I agree. Unfortunately, many of these stories are bogged down by Hollywood tendencies, or aren’t told at all because they don’t fit the Hollywood bill. This is why I prefer documentaries or accounts from actual survivors.

    “the story of Oscar Schindler is also the truth.”

    Based on truth. Big difference.

    “Fuck me. Someone’s angry. Get out of the house already.”

    Not angry. Just a little frustrating to discuss with people who have no idea what they are talking about. But, it’s a fun way to procrastinate from studying for immunology exams, so whatever… I really don’t care if any of you know what you’re talking about.

  • rufussondheim

    I know what you are talking about.

  • MoviePooch

    “Based on truth. Big difference.”

    You obviously failed to notice that I wrote “the story of Oscar Schindler”, not Schindler’s List. I would expect more from someone who views themselves as intellectually superior to everyone else on this board. Oh, and by the way… Zero Dark Thirty is also “based on truth”. And it too manipulates its audience to raise suspense. All films do. They just go about it in different ways.

  • SK404

    You win, MoviePooch.

  • Night and Fog is really the only film about the holocaust that should be watched.

    I’m sure glad we defeated Fascism so you could be free to clamp down on what we should watch.

  • SK404


    You can watch whatever you please. I just have found that most holocaust films are offensive and irresponsible. I have been loosely quoting Michael Haneke throughout this discussion, so I suppose I should give him credit. He’s spot on with regard to this topic.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    We should all contribute a Top 10 Hottest Actors of 2012. Only rule should be 1 Magic Mike mention limit.

  • MoviePooch

    Not looking for a “win,” thanks. But I would like to add that even documentaries manipulate their audiences. The “truth” in a documentary is entirely based on how a filmmaker chooses to exhibit or interpret said truth. The filmmaker selects what footage they show or do not show, the accompanying narration and music or lack thereof, the pace of editing and amount of time they might linger on a shot for dramatic effect. It’s all manipulation… even Night and Fog.

  • SK404

    You win, MoviePooch…

  • SK404

    It’s a different kind of manipulation, clearly. Spielberg did it for entertainment. Night and Fog did it to be informative.

  • mecid

    Congratulations, SK404. You are now star of this blog.

  • MoviePooch

    Of course he did it for entertainment. He works in the entertainment business. It was produced and distributed for a commercial audience by a entertainment company with a 1993 production budget of over $20 million. This wasn’t some kind of film school thesis or strictly educational endeavor where no one had any large-scale investment on the line. His accompanying work for the USC Shoah Foundation was his contribution to the subject for strictly educational purposes. Alain Resnais made his film with the specific documentary intent of depicting “the horrors of war”. And it is an admirable achievement that surely achieved that goal. But commercial profit was not the guiding purpose of the producers, some of whom were convinced it would never see a theatrical release. But it was manipulation all the same, presenting its subject in such a way to elicit a particular response. I don’t fault either filmmaker one way or another, I just try and view and appreciate each film for what it is, and what it is not.

  • Matt O’Callaghan

    “I just have found that most holocaust films are offensive and irresponsible”

    That may be the case, but these films (and not just about the holocaust) need to be made. I don’t want one definitive take which no one will see. If entertainment is what is needed to get people invested, then so be it.

    As Sam Fuller once said, but don’t quote me, short of shooting everyone in the movie theatre there is no way to convey war on film.

    And SK404, how did you go from trashing Lincoln to a game of soggy biscuit to Schindler’s List?

  • MoviePooch

    And one more thing, Stanley Kubrick was very aware of his personal strengths and shortcomings. He recognized, even envied if you will, Spielberg’s ability to connect with commercial audiences. It’s the reason he pursued him to direct A.I. Artificial Intelligence. And Spielberg, recognizing his own personal limitations, hesitated until after Kubrick’s death, when he decided to direct it as a tribute to his friend. Stanley Kubrick was by no means a Spielberg hater. Quite the opposite really.

  • Pierre de Plume

    The numbers of survivors of the Holocaust are rapidly diminishing and it won’t be long before any relative source we have for the Holocaust will be the written page.

    I think it was Steven Spielberg who spearheaded a project to film Holocaust survivors telling their stories.

    I can’t comment on SK404 because I’m a Sasha minion and haven’t yet received my orders.

  • Craig Z

    Where did this SK404 jerk come from?

  • erik815

    Don’t listen to these people, SK404, you’re absolutely right to judge Lincloln in isolation by a simple, rigid standard, and then compare it to Schindler’s List and then judge that in isolation by a simple, rigid standard.

    The least Spielberg could have done was make a movie about slavery that focused on slaves, for instance by taking a story about slaves who were kidnapped and brought to America on a ship, and then make other movies about the atrocities of WW2 and the Holocaust, and create a foundation to document the experiences of as many holocaust survivors as possible.

    In fact, how dare he make a movie caled “Lincoln” and focus it on this Lincoln person? How dare he even dramatise historical events, when those should clearly only be covered by documentary films. The only thing this kind of behaviour achieves is that large audiences many of whom might not normally seek out this subject matter in very much detail are pulled into a story that can educate, and provoke further interest in their subjects.

    How dare he indeed. I, for one, find this very offensive!

  • steve50

    Well said erik815 – you almost had me (I shouldn’t skim read first).

    While I can understand SK404’s point, I don’t agree with it. Historical tragedies must be made a part of the cultural fabric if they are to be prevented from happening in the future. Yes, the purity gets diluted and manipulated and not always for the right reasons, but it is the surest way of keeping the issue in the public conscience.

    Besides, I thought Lincoln was about the pain of political process versus conscience, not slavery itself. (Maybe I was in the wrong cinema.)

    I, too, expect a more direct take on slavery from 12 Years a Slave. McQueen is gonna define it once and for all, so fasten your seatbelts.

  • rufussondheim

    I’m telling you, read The Known World by Edward P. Jones. I’m no slavery scholar, but, damn, this book seems to get it right. It’s a tough read, but when you finish, it is so worth it.

  • rufussondheim

    Shit, just did some quick research and learned that 12 years a slave is an autobiography. Sounds like I found the next book I am going to read.

  • Unlikely hood

    Shoah > Night and Fog
    and it’s not even close

  • Nic V

    It’s true film is manipulative. That’s the purpose of art. Art is supposed to reach into your essence and churn it up in some fashion. Either to repulse you or to elevate your conscience or just pull at a few strings in your heart. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a documentary or not. In fact documentaries are specifically designed to manipulate their audience simply because there is an agenda.

    And SK I may not know your connection to the Holocaust but you also don’t know the connection any other contributor here might have so I stand by my comment. Just because any of us have a connection to a subject matter doesn’t mean we always view that connection objectively. Just as we all don’t view “art” or any form of “art” objectively. Art is a very subjective experience because there are too many nuances within “art” to manipulate your impressions or to some degree what you hold as truth.

    Every director is going too pursue a projects from different perspectives simply because the subject matter is going to be personalized in some fashion. I’d like to believe that at this time in film directors are pursuing projects that they have some personal involment with not like in the old days where a director was assigned a project based on a contract with a studio to do so many films a year.

    I really dislike Tarantino films because in my subjective opinion I think he has a tendency to diminish brutality by overblowing brutality. Trying to be objective about his work I suppose I could say to myself that perhaps what Tarantino is really attempting to do is scold us for not learning how ravaging brutality really is and ignoring what we know to be the truth about brutality. Even as much as I dislike his work that doesn’t diminish the fact that in some degree Tarantino is rather brave to follow the path he follows. It’s kind of like that Spike Lee dilemna. Lee is certainly another who follows a path only Lee’s path is a lot more gritty and not as violent as Tarantino’s yet with Lee you get more a mental brutality than an Inglorious Bastards kind of brutality. Spike likes to rattle your brain without holding a gun to your head and cocking the trigger. I mean how would the public have reacted if Lee had “scalped” Danny Aiello? Might have been quite a visual but that’s not Lee’s style.

    And now LOL I’m not even sure where I was going with this.

  • SK404

    “Shoah > Night and Fog”

    Thanks for the heads up. Hadn’t heard of this.

  • SK404

    “Historical tragedies must be made a part of the cultural fabric if they are to be prevented from happening in the future.”

    Not disagreeing, just saying that very few films depicting these historical tragedies are actually good.

  • Reichdome back with AVENGEANCE!!

    I was impressed with the Hurt Locker when i saw it but i was appalled and disgusted by the manner in which it undervalued its material to the public through the producers undermining it own box office potential it not about box office per above all about how many pple really are genuinely interested in it. Unlike Hurt locker, this film has even MORE potential than the Hurt locker to appeal to a much broader audience base so the question is why is it predicted to ONLY make a smidgen more than the hurt locker? Whatever happened to the integrity and credibility of the academy back in the day where critical acclaim AND public care and value and increased appeal due to word of mouth is what REALLY is SUPPOSED TO ALWAYS determine oscar success?

    Answer it gone down the sewerage pipe of neglect and forgotten memories.

    Oscar forget time and time and TIME again that a film that talked about at large in theatres before / after films by the public THEY are the films that also have had time, energy and effort to bring them to life as well as the public cares THEY are the ones that matter to OSCAR OR SHOULD BE! They did with Gone with the Wind, they did with Ben Hur, they did with Godfather.

    No, according to oscar we do not matter anymore. we are insignificant a non- eterty.

    What reall ticks me off is how films like the hurt locker for all their brilliance were very limited in their release when they deserved to be treated as a film that could have far larger appeal. The producers/ studio may have had some limitations on money, but now, with ZERO DARK THIRTY ESPECIALLY about a content that more relevant than ever in our time bout hunting osama bin laden, this is SOMETHING that MUST and the producers should expand worldwide in at LEAST every MAJOR CINEMA.

    I said it once and i say it again i lilke and became a HUGE fan of Kathryn Bigelow. She hot and sexy yes, but more importantly she bringing and playing a fundamentally important role as she broke the glass ceiling for her gender a celiing that should have been broken eons ago but something that oscar failed to acknowledge. She is fast becoming one of the most talented directors of our generation workng off limited budgets however it does not excuse despite bigelow’s achievement undermining a films appeal by the producers and given they the SAME team who won oscar for hurt locker which gave producers and their studios “$$$$$$$$$$$$$” there is no excuse except sadly to acknowledge that the producers may? be taking advantage of the politics of oscar to their advanbtage? this tactic is shameful and hence, regardless who the director is IF indeed ‘zero dark thirty’ does not expand anywhere near as much as it film content ought to be then clearly it shows the producers only care about oscar which is a great shame cos bigelow herself she a genuine, hard working director determined to break new ground.

    I WANT TO see zero dark thiry but i deeply concerned bout the way producers handle their intended oscar contender films. I struggled to hunt for location tyo see hurt locker a few years ago. So hence, if the producers do undermine the mass importance and appeal of the themes and material and content of their own movie limiting its realease why should we all support a film most of us may not? be able to see for oscar?

    No, this year, especially with the dark knight rises does not make the cut for best picture and director noms (which it damn well should and oscar knows it given these films were so much more than blockbuster fodder, they were groundbreaking at a cinematic level in both story, performances, execution and utilization of cinema’s greateast asset for a mianstream movie- imax. far more than just a comic book movie, these ‘prequels’ since batman begins were a rarity not seen in terms of quality and public satisfaction since the godfather as a franchise everything rose to a whole new standard as the dark knight himself rose and conquered since batman begins. Given the rarity for a film to start off as a box office hype and transcend this to so much more than a mere blockbuster given how few box office event films exceed their own mandate and reach a standard that every bit as good as legitimate oscar contenders, there no excuse to snub the dark knight rises this yr at LEAST for a nomination/

    But it is LINCOLN that i am backing and my own opinion with the fear i have of undervaluing a film of as great importance as ‘zero dark thiry’ and cos of this it does not deserve to win as thngs stand imo atm….

    We have to tap into oscars; playbook to see the numerous other reasons why zero dark thirty will not win much this yr.

    1. The ‘recent director oscar win curse’ – Kathryn Bigelow won big as her producers- the same mob are now doing this film of hers- but the patterns with oscar is there has to be at least a 7 yrs gap between directors and esp for their respective pictures to win oscar.

    2. The early horse out of the gate in this case ‘zero dark thirty’ is under more pressure than other contenders nipping at it heals to keep it nose in front. historically the slower and steadier- in this case lincoln emerges as the frontrunner and deserves to be the fast starters more often than not are the slow finishers in the race.

    3. This year acting recognition and honors will be front and centre with performances from lincoln- one valuable asset that deserved to be nemasse more for saving private ryan at the time but prob where that film unfairly was weakest. Not since ‘Schindlers list’ has spielberg done a film where oscar recognition is heavilty expected for his main actor and that will carry great weight this year. It hard to see this year how zero dark thirty will win with , minimal or much lower profile performances than jeremy renner in hurt locker this year. And given actors account for majority branch of academy members..need it say more?

    4. The ‘i owe you ‘ factor. Clint Eastwood, martin Scorceses in principle where a director and their respective picture have been nominated (see mystic river, aviator, and then snubbed and oscar knows it they will make a mense for their misdeed past. That why million dollar baby and departed one big when these two directors did their next project. Combine the fact with Spielbergs weight of influence on contemporary cinema just like scorcese and eastwood with the fact that most agree saving private ryan should have won best picture and the fact the spielbeerg was unfairly snubbed with ‘munich’ ‘catch me if you can’ for instance, and the fact it been well over 10 years since spielberg won for best pic and best director and he ought to be a shoe in this year.

    5. It not just zero dark thirty that a first and clearly pple need to calm down a bit the first interpretation of VERY recent events is not always the best nor the deserved oscar winner we need to be careful not to judge esp for a film based on events that passed a little over a year ago. It way topo recent and too soon despite its importance to give oscar for this and historically, recent events as recent as a yr or two ago do NOT get embraced by oscar. more often than not. Compared to Lincoln of which its presentation and style, setting is of greater familiarity based on themese and person’s more established and over a longer period of time and arguably as a trajectory more significant at a much broader level than a recent past event- (ie look at obama’s america today compared to how issues that lincoln portray were overcome to date) so this imnportant historical tribute to modern american history which in turn almost certain to remind pple in these times of importance of cooperation and equality to treat each other and govt responsiblity to allow societies to treat each other as equal and lincoln’s legacy much more so than bin laden’s or the theme of hunting for bin laden will resonate more deeply with a public and critics especially the fact that lincoln will open wide- it word of mouth will build far more momentum then zero dark thirty.

    6. The fact a lot of people are saying that zero dark thirty is NOT better than hurt locker will subsequently as historically it does such as it did with aviator hurt that films chances for a big win. But nobody is suggesting this with lincoln. which, one anyone’s reckoning is the next most historically important and siginificant film behind schindler’s list that spielberg undertaken. add to the fact this film is likely held in higher regard than saving private ryan which was snubbed and this should be spielebergs’ year

    7. most nominated film,= win in oscar’s playbook this does still matter. though the percentage has lessened abit overall in the last 20 + yrs of oscar at least 70% or as much as 80% of oscar winners are the most nominated film that year. Hard to see how zero dark thirty will get enough in acting or esp technical whereas i suspect lincoln will be the most nominated film. Interesting point if dark knight rises makes the cut big time…it could be a dark horse the one to causer an upset i would not be against this…or few films since lotr and godfather have had such a impact and influence on critics and other films being made or the calibre or consistency of a well made film as this has. Given the themes with dark knight rises it could be the wildcard that could hurt zero dark thirty’s chances further- because it themes at a contemporary level very much intertwine with that from zero dark thirty.

    i rest my case. it deserves to be spielbergs and lincoln’s yr oscar’s chance to make a menze for the saving private ryan best picture snub too!

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