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Golden Globes Preview

The HFPA are announcing their nominees tomorrow.   With all of the dates being pushed back this year, the Globes aren’t as early as they usually are so they might actually be more useful than they’ve been in the recent past. Although the HFPA takes a lot of crap for being bought and paid for by studios, and/or foreign journalists nobody can identify, the truth is that it doesn’t really matter in the end; their nominees and winners do matter. They have as much an impact on the race as any other major critics awards, and are the second most watched awards show after the Oscars.  Winning a Globe gives you the world stage, and it ups your chances to win an Oscar significantly. Except when it doesn’t.

I’ll contend that after James Cameron won the Globe for Avatar it was an uncomfortable moment that eventually led to Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker’s victory.  Sometimes wins can feel “wrong” as much as they can feel “right.” It just depends on how much gratitude the contender decides to show. It’s always a good thing, for instance, to turn on the waterworks. People who bestow awards like to feel like they’re doing a good deed. So the wrong reaction is entitlement. The right reaction is gratitude. Hey, you asked. Well, maybe you didn’t ask but I’m offering up this theory which probably has one foot in a big pile of bullshit and the other foot in the truth. I won’t tell you which is which.

I have posted my predictions over at Gold Derby but I will go over them now.  Try to hide your excitement.

The question is what movie do well here. Many are assuming that movie with be Les Miserables. The Globes have traditionally embraced musicals and musicals with that much emotion appears to be up their street.  We shall see tomorrow.

Best Picture, Drama

Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
alts. Atonement, The Impossible

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
This is 40
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt. Hyde park on Hudson

Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Alt: Ben Affleck, Argo

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages
Jack Black, Bernie
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs

Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Alt: Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guild Trip
Bette Midler, Parental Guidance
Leslie Mann, This is 40

Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ben Affleck, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

The rest you can check out over at Gold Derby.  This is the last ugly morning until the Oscar nominations are announced.

Actor SAG 2011 GLOBES OSCAR
Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar Fassbender, Shame Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress 2011 2011
Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Rooney Mara, Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Supporting Actor 2011 2011
Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Nick Nolte, Warrior Albert Brooks, Drive Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar Viggo Mortensen, Dangerous Method Max Von Sydow, Loud and Close
Supporting Actress 2011 2011
Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help Jessica Chastain, The Help
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids Shailene Woodley, Descendants Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting GLOBES OSCAR
The Help The Help The Help
The Artist The Artist The Artist
Bridesmaids Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants
Hugo Hugo
Moneyball Moneyball
War Horse War Horse
The Ides of March
Actor GLOBES OSCAR
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jeff Bridges, True Grit Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours James Franco, 127 Hours
Actress GLOBES OSCAR
Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright Annette Bening the Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Hillary Swank, Conviction Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Supporting Actor GLOBES OSCAR
Christian Bale, The Fighter Christian Bale, The Fighter Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone Michael Douglas, Wall St 2 John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right Andrew Garfield TSN Mark Ruffalo,Kids Are All Right
Jeremy Renner, The Town Jeremy Renner, The Town Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, TKS Geoffrey Rush, TKS Geoffrey Rush, TKS
Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS Helena Bonham Carter, TKS
Mila Kunis, Black Swan Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit Mila Kunis, Black Swan Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Picture – Ensemble Acting Globes Oscar
The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright The Kids Are Alright
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Inception Inception