Lincoln has taken the lead over at Gold Derby.  I joined Tom O’Neil for a podcast last night. We thought it would be more fun than it turned out to be. We’re very very serious. Not a lot of cackling. Have a listen.





And p.s. we’ve been updating our Oscar Podcast here in case you want to listen to the latest.

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  • A

    Crash is an amazing movie. Nothing square-pegy about it.

  • A

    Tom O’Neil is remarkably wrong on Lincoln too.

    It may not be a rousing film by design but it is certainly generating a large amount of passion. Tom may not understand the difference but people understand the film for what it is. I can see it around me – and the week to week box office is a demonstration of a very strong word of mouth and increasing growth in stature. Not needing to be rousing and still have that place – that’s a sign of deep strength.

    Tom’s angle on everything is so shallow, automated and cynical it’s hard to listen to him.

  • A

    Lastly, Lincoln has a cool factor in spades. It’s the historical film that’s #2 in US after 35 days in release. I can name drop it and get nods from everyone, including hipsters.

    ZDT’s has more political baggage than cool and it’s release date makes it feel like it’s riding the coattails of the real acts that it is covering.

  • alam

    something tells me SLP is gonna do it cuz its a feel good movie and its cool i think ,never underestimate harvey and his plan the only thing is the box office numbers if that can go up then y not

  • mecid


  • John

    I don’t understand the idea that Silver Linings Playbook is not doing well box office. I don’t even love the film, but people, it’s made 14 million dollars already in only 370 theaters.

    Not 2800. 370!

  • John

    It’s per screen average is pretty darn good and I’d think that Harvey would start adding screens in the next 3,4,5,6 weeks til it’s up to 2000 or more for Oscar conversations. No?

  • A

    Tom Hooper is not in trouble. It’s a very dense field and someone was to be muscled out. Still, doesn’t mean it will happen again.

  • PJ

    Hooper’s chances of being nominated, much less winning another Oscar died after GG nominations were released.

  • Maxim

    Well, Lincoln was just under $6 thousand away from being #1 today on a significantly lower screen count. Cool has nothing to do with anything. AL:VH may have tried to have all the hipster appeal, it’s still not the same.

  • unlikely hood

    Love the business about Harvey putting too many chips on Nine and not turning to Quentin until it was too late. That is some crazy history potentially repeating itself.

    The Quentin Question is:

    Are his films underestimated in BP because they’re genre films?
    Are his films overestimated by people like Tom because even with 3x the Oscar campaign budget, they’d lose because they’re genre films?

    I loved listening to Tom’s dance, because his whole defensiveness about westerns’ viability in BP ignores the fact that that only goes back 22 years. Dances With Wolves was the first western to win Best Picture; Unforgiven was the second and last. So yeah, Django being the 3rd would be something special.

    There’s a deep irony at seeing the albatross of genre roped around QT’s neck, because of all major filmmakers, he’s really pushing boundaries of genre more than most. Sure, it’s like he’s been ticking boxes: gangster, blaxploitation, kung fu, WW2, now western. Yet he makes them indelibly his own, reminding us of Spielberg’s comments about Kubrick: “All of his films are different, yet within five minutes I know I’m in a Kubrick film.” If Tarantino doesn’t ever win, perhaps it will be that like Kubrick or Hitchcock he was too close to genre.

    The worst of it – for us fans, not for him – is that if he keeps ticking boxes, I’m not sure which genre QT can do next that will appeal to Oscar voters any more than a film like Django. A QT musical would probably be bad. Screwball comedy? Horror? Won’t win Oscar. Maybe a sports movie. He did say he thought about a bio-pic of John Brown. (Is John Brown mentioned in Django? I bet he is.)

    Anyway Sasha you made a good point on the podcast about writer-directors and Oscar. Not a lot of Annie Halls in the halls of Oscar. It’s probably jealousy. Unlike almost everyone on the Hollywood A-list, Quentin gets to live and work as an independent artist with $100 million budgets. Frankly that’s award enough for one lifetime; an Oscar (or offspring) for Quentin would just be icing on the cake. He doesn’t need either.

  • Daveylow

    People are making too much of Tom Hooper’s snub by GG. If he doesn’t make DGA then he’s in trouble. But BAFTA and the Brits in the Academy will support him.

  • Daveinprogress

    It could be that Hooper missed the GG noms, because Les Mis may not be very good. Dreamgirls, Nine, The Producers, Mamma Mia.

  • kasper

    @Sasha Stone: Great conversation you two! In regards to movie that got totally shut out from the Globes and being nominated by the Oscar, the only one I can think of is True Grit. But I think that may have more to do with when True Grit was released. The HFPA definitely had time to see Beasts of the Southern Wild.

  • evelyn garver

    Sasha, thanks for the words on love of LINCOLN by people in the real world. Here in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, it has played to sold out houses and people are sobbing at the end. You can’t get more American than Winchester, Va. Tom needs to get out more.

  • kasper

    Hi Evelyn, I know your intentions in your comment above are fine. But seriously, I think it’s kind of misguided to say one part of the country is MORE American than others. You know this half-Asian scrawny, unapologetic fag from San Francisco is just as American as any hardworking bluecollar father of two from the middle of Iowa, no more, no less. And you know what, I sobbed at the end of Lincoln too.

  • SLP had a small projected decrease in PSA this weekend. This could be the change in perception it has been waiting for. We’ll see. Tom seems right about Harvey’s marketing strategy to football fans, though. But, the holidays just around the corner and demand for the film may just now be beginning to kick in … just in time for all that work to pay off. Remember, it’s only in 370 theaters. It’s not in the Heartland, yet.

    We live in a culture where we have to see results right away, because we like to make snap judgments. Remember: The Artist got off to a slow start too.

    Sasha and Tom both commented on how she has emotionally divested herself (for now) this year. And I think it’s rubbing off on me. Being objective is so much more satisfying.

  • Just an observation, but, in this thread, Kasper schooled Evelyn on how he viewed her definition of American as limited, but then goes on to do the exact same thing.

    I didn’t cry at the end of Lincoln.

    While it was interesting, it had its weaknesses.

    And, yes, I’m an American like anyone else.

  • Sasha Stone

    Kasper I don’t think she meant it that way. She means outside the bubble of critics and bloggers. Not a nice thing to say about her, IMO.

  • kasper

    I didn’t mean that if you didn’t cry at the end of Lincoln that you weren’t more American, obviously. I just get sensitive when people say some parts of the country is the “real” American or “more” American. Looking back, she probably didn’t mean it with that resonance, so I do apologize.

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