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Producers Guild Confirms What We Knew, At Least So Far and with One Exception

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It was surprisingly easy to pick nine out of the ten Best Picture nominees for the Producers Guild, which means we will probably have a lot of winners in our contest. What this means is what it seems to mean every year: our method for finding the popular films in a consensus vote is pretty much right on. If you look at Gurus of Gold, for instance, you’ll see these same nine predicted. Only a few of them had Skyfall on their list. That last slot seemed like it could go to either The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises or Skyfall. Three franchise blockbusters that people really really liked. Skyfall, though, seems to have most of the buzz right now in that regard.

But does that mean it’s headed for a Best Picture nod? It’s tough to say. We don’t yet know how many Best Picture nominees there will be, let alone which ones make it in. We do know that if there were five right now they would be: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook/Les Miserables/Django Unchained fighting it out for that last slot. With more than five allowed, all of them should have no problem making it in. That’s a solid 7. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom also seem like safe bets, that’s nine. If you think the Academy will pick ten, you could go either for Amour or Skyfall.

For Skyfall to get in, it has to hit many voters’ number one — it can’t just be a three or a five, but a one or a two, ideally. I am fairly certain that the Academy are the only group around that counts their ballots this way. How many Academy members can you think of who will put down Skyfall at number one? It probably has a better chance placing there than The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers but still, Academy members might not be that mainstream.

In conclusion, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Skyfall will get in. If these nominations had come out a week ago, it would probably have a slightly better chance, but early on Kris Tapley‘s prediction feels more and more like a reality: that, at the very least, Skyfall might be looked at like the Bourne Ultimatum and could get in for more nominations than previously thought. Tapley thinks 9: Picture, Supporting actor, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Song and Production Design. I think Supporting Actor, Sound, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Song and POSSIBLY editing if Les Miserables gets bumped.

Right now, I still think Best Picture is down to those that keep getting onto the same lists, as illustrated below.

NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

Argo Argo Argo Argo
Beasts of the Southern Beasts of the Southern Beasts of the Southern Wild Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained Django Unchained Django Unchained Django Unchained
Les Miserables Les Miserables Les Miserables Les Miserables
Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom Moonrise Kingdom Moonrise Kingdom
Life of Pi Life of Pi Life of Pi
Skyfall
The Master
Promised Land
Looper
Perks of Being/Wall
Dark Knight Rises

2011 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist The Artist
War Horse War Horse War Horse War Horse War Horse
The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants The Descendants
Hugo Hugo Hugo Hugo Hugo
Moneyball Moneyball Moneyball Moneyball
The Help The Help The Help The Help
Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris Midnight in Paris
Tree of Life Tree of Life Tree of Life
Extremely Loud Extremely Loud
Drive Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March The Ides of March
Bridesmaids Bridesmaids
J Edgar J Edgar
Harry Potter

2010 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The King’s Speech The King’s Speech* The King’s Speech The King’s Speech The King’s Speech
The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter The Fighter
The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network The Social Network
Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan Black Swan
Inception Inception Inception Inception Inception
Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3 Toy Story 3
True Grit True Grit True Grit True Grit True Grit
Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right Kids Are All Right
127 Hours 127 Hours 127 Hours 127 Hours
Winter’s Bone Winter’s Bone
The Town The Town The Town The Town
Hereafter

*AFI special award

2009 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker The Hurt Locker
Up Up Up Up Up
Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds Inglourious Basterds
An Education An Education An Education An Education
Precious Precious Precious Precious
Avatar Avatar Avatar
District 9 District 9
A Serious Man A Serious Man A Serious Man
The Blind Side
Nine
Invictus Invictus Invictus
Star Trek Star Trek
Wild Things Are…
The Messenger The Messenger
A Single Man
Sugar
Coraline
The Hangover

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