Sloppy and Dirty Oscar Podcast, Globes Predictions Edition January 12, 2013 0 Comments Sasha Stone Posted in Oscar PodcastOscar Podcast Craig Kennedy, Ryan, Erik Anderson and I all give our reactions to this year’s Oscar’s nominations and we also predict the Globes. Have a listen. Benh Zeitlin’s short film Glory at Sea January 12, 2013 0 Comments Oscar Podcast Episode 16 January 13, 2013 0 Comments Share this About author Sasha Stone Sasha Stone has been around the Oscar scene since 1999. Almost everything on this website is her fault. Related Posts 0 Comments Oscar PodcastPodcasts mother! Podcast at Long Last! 0 Comments featuredOscar PodcastPodcasts All This and the Oscars Too – the Film Fest and Oscar Race with Special Guests Tomris Laffly and Mark Johnson 0 Comments Oscar Podcast Telluride Podcast – Flying Solo, with interviews! 0 Comments Oscar Podcast All This and the Oscars Too – Kathryn Bigelow Edition Tags Oscar Podcast Ashwin Pinto Lincoln is in the same boat as The Kings Speech. Both have 12 Oscar nominations the most for any film. Before the Guilds announced nobody thought that The Kings Speech would in. Only the lead actor was winning critics awards. Same with Lincoln. Nobody thinks that Lincoln will win the best Picture Oscar like that they didn’t feel the Kings Speech would. PGA could change things. It might actually be a good thing if Lincoln loses best picture at the Golden Globe Awards. Rarely does a Golden Globe winner end up being the Oscar winner apart from The Artist and Slumdog Millionaire. Both of those were critics darlings though. Neither Lincoln nor Silver Linings Playbook are critics darlings. Astarisborn Life so Pi on the other hand is a critics darling for Ang Lee. They love him and the fact that Pi is doing phenomenal box office business will affect the outcome with the foreign press. yaYa Counted out: New York Film Festival No Country For Old Men – Cannes – Release date: Nov 9 Slumdog Millionaire – Toronto – Nov. 12 The Hurt Locker – Venice, Toronto – June 26 The King’s Speech – Toronto – Nov. 26 The Artist – Cannes – Released: Nov. 25 Counted out: New York film Festival because it doesn’t generate buzz as much as the other festivals. This year’s nominees. Amour – Cannes – December 19 – BP, BD Argo – Telluride, Toronto – Oct. 12 Beasts of the Southern Wild – Sundance – June 27 BP, BD *Django Unchained – Dec. 25 *Les Miserables – Dec 25 *Life of Pi – November 21 – BP,BD *Lincoln – November 9 BP,BD Silver Linings Playbook – Toronto – Nov. 16 – BP,BD Zero Dark Thirty – Dec. 19 BOTSW is the only film released outside November or December to get a BD nomination. Argo, releases in Oct, failed to get a BD nomination. (Still a shocker!!) Films not yet in it’s widest release. Amour (If it will be opened at least on 500 + theaters) Silver Linings Playbook (will open at 2500+ theaters on jan.18) :::ZDT – just opened. Fascinating. The Last 5 winners are not really the “hollywood blockbusters”. Yes, a lot of it made a considerable amount of money. But the directors are not associated with the word hollywood or the directors of each film are not automatically associated with a sure money in the box office. (At least before they won) So who do you think has the momentum right now? If affleck got that Dir. nod, argo has the momentum following the BFCA win. honestly, SLP has the momentum in comparison to previous BP winners. Bling Daniel Day Lewis and Hugh Jackman are going to win which are a given. Jennifer Lawrence is going to win becuase she has no competition in her category. However I hope Naomi Watts wins best actress because I think she gave a much better performance than Jessica Chastain. Chastain is a great actress but she shouldn’t win for ZDT since she did NOTHING in the film. Also I have a feeling Argo is going to sweep since everyone feels bad about Ben Affleck getting snubbed. yaYa My Oscarmeter. BP: 1. Lincoln is not a solid number one. But a solid top 4.. Needs to win the GG tomorrow. My frontunner right now and I don’t know why. 2. SLP has the momentum. Solid number 2. 3. Argo – that PIC AND DIR. win at the BFCA just keeeps the hope alive for Best picture even w/o the bd nod. It’s strong and I can feel it. Solid top 4. 4. Life of Pi – Needs to win something big tomorrow to bump argo at number 3. 5. Zero Dark Thirty 6. Beasts of the Southern Wild 7. Les Miserables 8. Django Unchained 9. Amour dela Oh Sasha! no Silver Linings Playbook! Let’s collectively send telepathic waves to the Academy members. Who should we target first? Harvey Weinstein. Seriously, the thought of Jeff Wells bragging about it is almost tragic. He wouldn’t let go when TDK wasn’t nominated. One can only imagine what he’ll do if his pony wins. Adam Lewis Sloppy and dirty edition? Do I need to listen to it after dark with the door locked? tr Why do yall hate SLP so much? It’s a great film. steve50 Really enjoyed the podcast, guys. I think you’re right about SLP – it is gonna sweep the Musical/Comedy branch, mostly because of the TWC backing, and will become a major threat for the Oscar. There’s a wild, outside possibility that Les Mis can neuter it. I also think Lincoln will be the GG darling, but I’m surprised that nobody really thinks Life of Pi has any weight. I’m feeling (hoping, actually) that Pi will be the Chariots of Fire to Lincoln’s Reds and SLPs On Golden Pond. Reds and OGP were the well-respected that year that had an incredible number of noms, including many-to-all of the acting categories lockd, while CoF just chugged along quietly, not taken too seriously as a contender. steve50 Oscarwise, that is (the analogy)… Lincoln and SLP are locks for the GGs. Joe Clinton If Harvey Weinstein “owns” the GG’a, why did King’s Speech not win there? It may not be cool, but I love SLP and I care not who knows it. rufussondheim I can’t speak for other people about SLP but for me I hated it because of the ending. It was terrible. Truly. But the problems started midway, right after the Cooper character had that blowup about the wedding album and decided to take meds. All during the first half of the movie he complained about the side effects of the meds. But after he starting taking the meds, not one complaint, no comment or anything. It was a done issue. It was almost like the film was co-produced by Phizer and Merck. But after that it all barrelled towards that staged and insincere ending. It was almost like the moral of the story was “Do well at a dance contest and your mental illness will fade away” For the most part the film treated the idea of mental illness pretty shabbily, using it more as a plot device than anything else, something that once you find love just kind of becomes a non-issue. It’s a pretty offensive film, in my opinion. Kai I loved SLP and hopes it wins BP. The Japanese Viewer Re this podcast, quoting a snippet, “Shitty* (SLP)”. [*More or less tongue in cheek or not, the esse was there.] : ) Considering Sasha’s former Oscar poker partner Jeffrey Wells reportedly seems to be showing whole lotta love to SLP in particular while at the same time displaying disfavor towards Spielberg(?) himself, if not his films; it would be interesting if we could have one more round of their amicable, dual podcast – this time preferably face-to-face. (Sasha’s sounds of voice are savory; the phone conversation won’t do her justice.) It would be fun. Nik Another great podcast! Thanks! Here’s all things crossed for Lincoln!!! Joe Clinton Rufussondheim – re SLP I respectfully disagree. After Cooper’s violent blow-up over the wedding video, he was pretty much cornered into taking his meds – the alternative would have been being sent back to the hospital – so he made the best of it. David O. Russell has personal exprience with these mental health issues from his son (who appears in the film) and to some degree himself. He just wanted to make a positive story to lend hope and inspiration to those who have lived with similar issues. I think he succeeded. Jamie If SLP beats Les Mis for anything, they will need to redesign the award to look like Weinstein’s rear end. At least when the winners are photographed kissing their awards, we will know why. Joe Clinton Les Mis is a mess. PaulH Lets nip this Life of Pi gonna win BP in the bud right now. No acting nominations. Can’t have a BP winner without the support of the actors branch. Weren’t we told this just 3 years ago with Avatar? It would be a stunning double standard if Pi did win, and will add fuel to the belief that the 2009 result was little more than a protest vote against Cameron and the lie that performance capture would be the death panels of the acting business. Like Cameron was forced to in ’09, Mr. Lee, you’re going to just have to settle for a tech win or two. Except for VFX, which belongs to The Avengers. Jack Traven II @rufussondheim The bad thing is I can’t remember anymore Cooper’s character having taken meds again. That’s the reason why I need to see a film for at least a second time. But how about this: Love was just the right medicine for him to be cured. So, why not seeing the whole thing more symbolically? I mean, Life of Pi and Beasts were all about symbols. And for my part, I don’t mind if some of the films I like or love are partly somewhat inappropriate, senseless or implausible. Most if not all films (even the ever so masterworky ones, IMHO) share this fate. So, in this sense movies are a lot like people. They have rough edges, too. But there are also lots of reasons for loving them, too. Right? 😉 Bryce Forestieri LOL some people personally dislike David O. Russel (as if they really know him) does it have to do with him calling someone a cunt on some vid on youtube? LOLOL that’s it??? Joe Clinton Jack Traven II – Right on, brother. Pat is not shown taking meds again, although they are referred to (De Niro: “Are you taking the proper dosage of you medication.” Cooper: “Of coarse I am.”). But you are right, SLP is unabashedly a rough-edged romantic comedy; and it works. It should not be over-analyzed any more than “It Happened One Night” which is very implauseable, but I love it dearly. PaulH Bruce, Russell went ape-s on Lily Tomlin and it was caught on tape while I Heart Huckabees was being filmed, I believe. Made Christian Bale’s Terminator: Salvation rant seem like he was at library-level voice. Joe Clinton Russell admits to being a head case, which, in part, informed his screenplay for SLP. Bryce Forestieri LOL Maybe the directors identify with that little episode. I mean he was nominated for a Best Director movie for his two subsequent movies. Hardly a disliked guy. It’s just a couple of very vocal and loud people that dislike him. David O. Russel after I Heart Huckabees = 3 Oscar nominations David O. Russel disliked by “many” = Myth Voland SLP bashing continues, as usual. Erik tried to counterbalance it a bit, but all in all it feels like 3-4 persons coming together for a little talk, which rapidly turns into a takedown on SLP. Weeks ago it has been Les Miserables, because it felt more like a threat that time, and now it’s SLP, which overperformed and threatens the frontrunner-status of Lincoln. Kane Paul H, Life of Pi can win best pic without the acting branch. Look at Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire, Braveheart, The Last Emporer. Joe Clinton True that. All the ZD30 noise seems to be simmering down, too. PaulH Not when the Huff Post says Bigelow is being ‘swiftboated’: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jan-lisa-huttner/oscars-2013_b_2451017.html * * Melodrama, here we are. Jack Traven II I don’t see Life of Pi having the slightest chance. I think it might be this year’s Hugo – just in case Lincoln doesn’t clean-sweep at the Oscars (which is what I actually think it will do), of course. keifer I think this may be the year when AMPAS couldn’t give a tinker’s damn what the Golden Globes organization chooses. They’ve proven this year that they indeed have a will of their own. While I was disappointed with the AMPAS nominations in quite a few categories (Javier Bardem and Judi Dench not being nominated), I do think they showed a lot of free-thinking in some categories (“Amour”, “Anna Karenina”, and in particular “The Life of Pi”). The Globes appear to be becoming a less respected group – hell, even a joke in some areas – over the years, and, let’s face it, the Globes are kind of “cheesy” – just seems to be an excuse for rich actors to go out, party, get drunk on television, and socialize about how great they all are. As Warren Beatty said a few years ago, “The Globes is a party. The Oscars are business.” PaulH Globes, for all their faults, got it right in 2009 and 2010. The ONLY ones with enough guts to choose the true best film of 2009. phantom Cold Mountain (also an American Civil War Epic) had 8 Golden Globe nominations and only won supporting actress. Excellent point, Sasha, about The Pianist/Amour. I think Amour will win 3 Oscars (Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Actress) and from then on Haneke MIGHT surprise in BD Polanski-style. Frankly, I don’t think BD is down to Spielberg and Russell, I think it’s down to Spielberg and Haneke. Having said that, with its biggest competition eliminated with the BD-lineup (Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Django Unchained, Les Misérables), I think Lincoln will have absolutely no trouble pulling off a sweeep, Amour will win the 3 I mentioned and – dare I jinx it – Silver Linings Playbook will go home emptyhanded. It only has one viable nominee who could win (Jennifer Lawrence) and I predict she will lose to potential BAFTA-winner Emmanuelle Riva. I don’t think it has a shot in the other acting categories (well, maybe De Niro, because Supporting Actor is such a mess) NOR in Directing, Editing & Screenplay. Lawrence needs at least BAFTA or SAG, and she probably won’t have a chance at the BAFTA (they weren’t into her film) BUT she could easily win SAG, they LOVED her movie, so if she wins there, she will probably win the Oscar, too ALTHOUGH if Riva wins BAFTA (and I think she will), it will be a nailbiter once again, because in recent years when the SAG Best Actress winner didn’t win the Oscar, the BAFTA Best Actress winner did : Meryl Streep (vs. Viola Davis), Kate Winslet (vs. Meryl Streep), Marion Cotillard (vs. Julie Christie), Nicole Kidman (vs. Renée Zellweger). My money is on Watts for SAG (great industry support, though Lawrence is a VERY strong contender here), Riva for Bafta and the Oscar, Chastain for Critics Choice (duh) and probably Golden Globe (drama) and Lawrence for Golden Globe (comedy). I will ONLY consider Lawrence the frontrunner if she wins SAG and Riva loses BAFTA. Erik Anderson @Ashwin Pinto Lincoln is in the same boat as The Kings Speech. Both have 12 Oscar nominations the most for any film. Before the Guilds announced nobody thought that The Kings Speech would in. Only the lead actor was winning critics awards. Same with Lincoln. Nobody thinks that Lincoln will win the best Picture Oscar like that they didn’t feel the Kings Speech would. PGA could change things. I said this a few weeks ago and I completely agree with you. Not only do they both have 12 nominations they have the SAME nominations (save Original vs. Adapted screenplay). Lincoln is very much the American King’s Speech, in the best way possible and I think we’ll see that with DGA and PGA. Erik Anderson Bah, I am terrible at using HTML tags. I meant to just italicize your quote, not the whole thing. 😛 Patrick “Not only do they both have 12 nominations they have the SAME nominations (save Original vs. Adapted screenplay). Lincoln is very much the American King’s Speech, in the best way possible and I think we’ll see that with DGA and PGA.” Excellent observation Erik. And the fact that it’s Adapted Screenplay is important, because Lincoln is virtually locked to win Adapted Screenplay, beating out its main contenders for Best Picture: Argo, SLP and Life Of Pi. PJ I can’t believe people are still using the term “locked” post Oscar nomination. Jerry The SLP hate has finally reached The King’s Speech levels on the podcast. So I guess this means it’s going to sweep just like TKS. 😀 >>I don’t think the golden globes matter any more than the BFCA did this year. SAG, PGA, and BAFTA are what’s going to help push films forward or back. Jack Traven II The SLP hate has finally reached The King’s Speech levels on the podcast. That’s fore sure! Paddy Mulholland For the most part the film treated the idea of mental illness pretty shabbily, using it more as a plot device than anything else, something that once you find love just kind of becomes a non-issue. I agree most thoroughly. I also felt that Bradley Cooper’s shallow performance failed to illuminate any of Pat’s mental health issues. Cooper was focused on the comedy, as was Russell, and the more complex themes were shafted. And when Ryan informed me of the changes Russell has made to the plot in his adaptation, it only made me dislike the film more. Rob Y My $.02 about Best Director. If you look at our own simulation results, http://www.ellipticcurvecreations.com/2012Directing.pdf, you see something that has never happened with our simulations, it took 16 rounds before one nomination was secured. This was hardly a lock for anyone. Now I know that the Awards Daily readers are a different demographic, but in comparison to other categories that the AD readers voted in, it is clear that Director was a wide open race. Add some minor fluctuations to these results and you can get Beasts or Amour sneaking in. Add TWC to the mix and you get SLP. Scott (the other one) I enjoyed SLP as a junky Hollywood romcom — these movies are never very good, but they can be pleasant popcorn experiences. I’m wondering if Lincoln will not win Best Drama because the foreign members of the HFPA will not respond to the story and American mythology in the same way that the mostly-American Oscar voters will. I’m thinking they’ll go with Argo…. 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