The Golden Globes Preview – Testing the Sea Legs


The Golden Globes are coming off a really terrible Critics Choice broadcast. They were happy because their numbers were good — and let it be said if there is one thing of value if you’re a broadcast critic, it’s television ratings.   There is no point in taking them that seriously, after all, many of them aren’t critics and some are even awards bloggers out to strategize the race from within. They are to be taken, as most awards are, with a grain of salt.

Tonight will put some films to a tougher test — the presumed winners in each category face formidable challengers. Since the race has had three dramatic shifts in the narratives, that all came down to the director category, Best Picture seems wide open, even still.

1. Tom Hooper and David O. Russell missing the crucial Golden Globe nomination for Director.
2. David O. Russell missing the even more crucial DGA nod.
3. David O. Russell, Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin getting into the Oscar race for director but Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow not.

It goes without saying but should be said again that there has never been a year like 2012 in 65 years of DGA/Oscar history

The Golden Globes are only around 100 voters. The DGA are 14,500 and the Oscar director’s branch are 369.  That small group chose not to vote for Bigelow and Affleck but they are a crucial group, which goes without saying.

The Best Picture frontrunner will likely be revealed not tonight but when the Producers Guild, or even SAG ensemble, become the first major guild to hand out the award.  That might mean a sweep of the guilds and Oscar or it might mean it’s split up all over the place.  An unpredictable year is just that: unpredictable. Be careful what you wish for.

Stats-wise, Silver Linings Playbook and Argo have about an equal chance to STILL win, even with the director leave-off because they have the larger consensus voters in the DGA (14,500) picked Affleck, and Oscar picked Russell.  Zero Dark Thirty has always been hurt by having no SAG ensemble nomination.  Silver Linings Playbook has all four acting nominations and has suddenly been propelled to the front of the line, because it, like Lincoln and Life of Pi, seem to have the best chance to win. That might impact how people vote in the coming races, particularly SAG ensemble, and we might find further evidence of tides already turning in tonight’s Musical/Comedy Best Picture.

It also goes without saying that Lincoln is still the only one with every major stat on its side. That might mean everything and it might mean nothing — flip a coin, take a random guess, spit in the wind, it’s all the same. We don’t know the outcome yet and any film could win at this point. Films with the best chance: Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook and Argo.  But come to that, in a weird year like this, any film could take the top spot and it would almost not be that surprising.

The only reason we pay more attention to the Globes than any other precursor involving critics is that they’ve been around the longest and they have matched Oscar more than any other group, by a long, long way, even when they haven’t matched in recent years for Best Picture.

Here are the stats that effect THIS year:

1. Only one film has ever managed to win from the Musical/Comedy category with no director nomination at the Globes or DGA — Driving Miss Daisy, our favorite anomaly to trot out. 

Even WITHOUT the directors nomination, Driving Miss Daisy won Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Picture in the Musical/Comedy category.  And Born on the Fourth of July won in the drama category, went on to win Best Director at the Oscars, while Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture. That was a case of voters really liking a movie and not really caring all that much about the director. But I think, if voters REALLY LIKE Silver Linings Playbook enough to give it Best Picture over some of the best films the Oscar race, they will give it Best Picture at the Globes FIRST. If Les Miserables beats it it will need to pick up a momentum boost elsewhere, maybe at the PGAs.

If Silver Linings Playbook becomes the Oscar frontrunner, it will follow in the thematic pattern of the last three Best Picture winners the Weinstein Co brought to Oscar: leading man with damaged ego is propped up by those around him and manages to squeak out triumph over his own failings.  The stuttering King barely gives a speech but he gives a speech! The silent film star barely has a career but he has a career as a musical co-dancer. And the guy with bi-polar barely wins the dance contest but he wins big anyway.  Obviously voters like this narrative. They like the underdog winning the day — they seem to admire less characters who do bigger things, achieve greatness … because in the end they aren’t as likable, perhaps, or voters don’t feel like they’re doing a good deed when they hand over their vote.  Irrational as it may seem, this is how it apparently works.

Take Slumdog Millionaire vs. Benjamin Button – if you watch those two movies now, Button is by far the greater achievement.  Slumdog is more charming, perhaps, as it makes you fall in love with those characters and you’re so happy when everything turns out so well. But side by side, as I’m finding out now all of these years later, Button was the better movie.  But to realize that you need to dive back into both movies, something people aren’t really ready to do. Slumdog was an awards juggernaut. It won everything without blinking.  That is irrational voting at play.  It works in advertising and it works in the Oscar race and the Weinstein Co. have mastered it.  That is why Silver Linings Playbook is such a big threat to win the big thing. You’re never going to get an irrational vote of support for Lincoln.  The only way to work in irrationality is to have their be industry-wide appreciation for Spielberg’s success not just this year but for the past 40 years.  And we know from Oscar history that hardly ever happens. They either like the movie or they don’t.

2.  The only film to win Best Picture without first winning the Globes for Comedy was Annie Hall.  

That means — tonight — to really stay in the race, I think Silver Linings Playbook needs to win the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy. I think it WILL win and have predicted it to win over at Gold Derby. In this, the third year of watching this dog and pony show play out, I can see the ending coming a mile away.

In the drama category I used to think that Kathryn Bigelow and Zero Dark Thirty were going to win. This, because she did not win for The Hurt Locker. It went to Avatar instead. Then the Hurt Locker won the PGA and the race was over.  Since the Globes are calling 2012 the Year of the Woman I figured Bigelow and her film would win this year. But now I’m not so sure.

According to their website, the final ballots for the Globes were turned in BEFORE Oscar nominations. That means the Globes voters didn’t know Kathryn Bigelow and Tom Hooper would both be left off the list for Director.  That means Bigelow and Zero Dark Thirty could still win.

Many of the pundits over at Gold Derby are predicting Lincoln to win. I currently have Argo in the slot to win. But to tell the truth, I don’t know what will win in the drama category. Lincoln has yet to win a single major award. The film that leads the nominations doesn’t always win, or maybe 50% of the time it does.   But I think it could very easily go to Bigelow and Zero Dark Thirty.

The only way the Globes can directly influence the race is how voters feel when someone wins and how voters feel when someone doesn’t.  This was best illustrated in 2009 when Jim Cameron won Picture and Director from the Globes, stealing Kathryn Bigelow’s place in the sun.  In the end, Bigelow would triumph and I have always thought that things might have turned out differently if she and not he had won the Globe.

I also think Bradley Cooper will beat Hugh Jackman, now that I’ve slept on it. I think there’s a good chance Jackman will win. I think he deserves to win but I also think if Silver Linings Playbook wins Best Picture, Cooper and Lawrence will both win in their acting categories.

That will put Cooper and Daniel Day-Lewis head to head at the SAGs.  I will reserve comment about that for now.

Jessica Chastain will go up against Naomi Watts, I think, for lead actress in drama. I think Chastain will prevail but it will depend on how much they like Zero Dark Thirty. I could see that movie and Chastain winning big in the drama category.

Screenplay feels like its down to Lincoln vs. Silver Linings Playbook vs. the outside chance of Django Unchained winning.  It’s been said that the HFPA favors the Weinstein Co. and thus, I do think it’s possible that Lincoln will be upset in the screenplay category.   It’s a bit of a joke to imagine any other screenplay beating Lincoln, considering, but I know how irrational voting works so anything is possible.

To that end, here are our predictions.

Best Picture Drama
Argo-Sasha Stone
Lincoln–Ryan Adams, Erik Anderson, Marshall Flores, Ryan Adams
Life of Pi–Craig Kennedy

Best Actor, Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis–Adams, Anderson, Flores, Kennedy, Stone

Best Actress, Drama
Jessica Chastain–Anderson, Flores, Stone
Naomi Watts–Kennedy, Adams

Best Picture Musical/Comedy
Silver Linings Playbook–Adams, Anderson, Kennedy, Stone
Les Miserables–Flores

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Bradley Cooper–Stone
Hugh Jackman–Adams, Anderson, Flores, Kennedy

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Jennifer Lawrence–Adams, Anderson, Flores, Kennedy, Stone

Supporting Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio–Anderson, Kennedy
Tommy Lee Jones–Flores, Stone
Christoph Waltz–Adams

Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway–Anderson, Flores, Kennedy, Stone
Sally Field–Adams

Steven Spielberg: Adams, Stone
Ben Affleck: Anderson, Flores
Ang Lee: Kennedy

Lincoln: Adams, Anderson, Flores, Stone
Silver Linings Playbook: Kennedy

Frankenweenie: Adams, Flores, Stone
Brave: Anderson, Kennedy

Lincoln–Flores, Kennedy, Stone
Cloud Atlas–Adams
Life of Pi–Anderson

Amour–Adams, Anderson, Flores, Kennedy, Stone

Skyfall: Adams, Anderson, Flores, Kennedy, Stone



  • k-a

    is there any streaming link for this?

  • :Secret Lights in Anatolia … … Upon a Time in Anatolia, Secret World of Arriety and Red Lights ttp://

  • murtaza

    the fuck with Lincoln winning ORIGINAL SCORE, this is horrendous and if there’s any justice in Globes (which seems unlikely because they seem to award the picture with bigger canvas) they won’t let Les Mis win over SLP.
    But its Globes who gave Best Picture to Dreamgirls over Little Miss Sunshine and Sweeney Todd over Juno. They don’t like small films.

  • I’m counting on nothing this year. One way or another, a lot of precedents are likely to be broken, as they already have been, with Thursday’s nominations.

    The only film to win Best Picture without first winning the Globes for Comedy was Annie Hall.
    That means — tonight — to really stay in the race, I think Silver Linings Playbook needs to win the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy.

    Even this, I would question. This year is so random, I don’t think any film needs to win anything before Oscar. Benh Zeitlin and Jacki Weaver sure didn’t need any nominations to secure their Oscar nods.

    I think the fact that the HFPA turned in ballots prior to Oscar nominations is important. It was important with the BFCA. Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Les Miserables are still frontrunners, alongside Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook. And then there’s Life of Pi!

  • Free

    People, how long have the Critics Choice been broadcasting? They are ALWAYS terrible, less watchable than the MTV Movie Awards even. I hope Sally Field was being serious when she promised not to return. Who could blame her?

  • Jack Traven II

    Another thing I will be rooting for is Cloud Atlas winning Best Score – but only because Tom Tykwer and Reinhold Heil are fellow countrymen, since I haven’t seen the film itself. 😉

  • unlikely hood

    Ryan Adams is so sure about Lincoln on Best Drama he picked it twice! 🙂

  • CJ

    Once agaion…Speilberg has been around 40 years not 30.

  • Sasha Stone

    Would love it if Cloud Atlas won score. It deserves it. I only think Lincoln because I think they will want to give it something else other than Screenplay.

  • Reno

    Thumbs up to the BFCA diss.

    Zero Dark Thirty, anyone? I predict it’s gonna win BP drama and BD. Maybe even screenplay. That after the Globes’ failed endorsement of Avatar thinking it’s gonna be another Titanic at the Oscars.

    Oh, with regards to the recent podcast, I agree that THL was a 1,2,3 and Avatar more of a 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, hence the former won. But TKS and TSN were both 1, 2, 3s, it’s just that when all the votes were tallied, TKS ended up with a higher score.

    On that note, here’s how I see this year’s race:
    Argo = 1, 2, 3
    Amour = 1, 5-10
    Beasts of the Southern Wild = 1, 5-10
    Django Unchained = 1, 5-10
    Life of Pi = 1, 2, 3
    Lincoln = 1, 2, 3
    Les Miserables = 1, 5-10
    Silver Linings Playbook = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
    Zero Dark Thirty = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

  • Reno

    Sorry, only 9 BP nominees, so should be only 5-9 or 1-9.

  • Jerry Grant

    I agree with Reno. I think it’s a mistake for everyone to be leaving off ZDT and Bigelow.

    Another question: Why are all the movies that get so-called “irrational” voting the ones that you don’t love all that much? (Slumdog, SLP)? I think “Slumdog” is a way better movie than “Button”, and I certainly don’t think I’m irrational in my advocacy for SLP.

  • KB

    Picture, Drama – “Lincoln”
    Picture, Musical or Comedy – “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Director – Ben Affleck for “Argo”
    Actor, Drama – Daniel Day-Lewis in “Lincoln”
    Actress, Drama – Naomi Watts in “The Impossible”
    Actor, Musical or Comedy – Bradley Cooper in “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Actress, Musical or Comedy – Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook”
    Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones in “Lincoln”
    Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables”
    Screenplay – “Lincoln”
    Score – “Life of Pi”
    Song – “Skyfall”
    Foreign Language Film – “Amour”
    Animated Feature – “Wreck-It-Ralph”

  • Sasha Stone

    Oh god, CJ. THANK YOU. Why do I keep doing that? WHY? I grew UP WITH SPIELBERG I should know!

  • I never thought I’d say this, but I’m really looking forward to the Golden Globes tonight. The nominations are so diverse and the awards season so far full of surprises, that it will make for a fascinating evening. Daniel Day-Lewis and Hugh Jackman are the only two real certainties tonight.

    Les Miserables should have been a shoo-in for Best Musical/Comedy, but the American reviews were mixed. In the UK they have been superlative and everyone raves about the movie – so whilst I can easily see it winning the BAFTA for Best Film, it’s highly unlikely it’ll take the Oscar.

    Also the reason I’ve grown to like the Globes is the wonderful mix of TV and Film – so there are no uninteresting categories (unlike at the Oscars where we have to get through Best Sound Editing, Best Documentary Short, etc). I’m just as interested to see if Damien Lewis wins Best Actor for Homeland as much as whether Daniel Day Lewis will win for Lincoln.

  • Juan

    Just watch Silver Linings Playbook (maybe the hype was too high) and is this the real rival for winning the race? really? because I think it´s a nice comedy but nothing extraordinary. I hope Les Miserables wins today because this is a outstanding musical. And for the Oscar race I think Lincoln still the favorite. But please not SLP. It would be the biggest dissapointment from Crash victory. I am still don´t know how David O. Russell got the nomination.

    And today:

    Drama: Argo, Daniel Day Lewis, Jessica Chastein
    Comedy/Musical: Les Miserables (I can´t vote SLP even when I think it´s gonna win. I can´t), Hugh Jackman, Jennifer Lawrence.
    Director: Affleck.
    Supporting: Anne Hathaway, Tommy Lee Jones
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Score: Life of Pi
    Animated: Brave
    Foreign: Amour
    Song: Skyfall

    PS: Sorry for my English.

  • Diego

    Bigelow and Affleck without Oscar directorial noms remind me of Streisand getting ignored for her masterful work on the Prince of Tides.

    Perhaps the old guards found it too hard to acknowledge that Bigelow can really direct and with Affleck’s case, it could be the case of pretty young boy needing to earn your right syndrome.

    Oh, well…

  • Jack Traven II

    Sasha, do you know Tom Tykwer’s Run Lola Run? If not, check it out! It’s quite original. It’s heart-stopping, fast-paced, wonderfully acted and accompanied by the perfectly fitting music.

  • unlikely hood

    Sasha – Thank you for noticing CJ’s comment. Rufussondheim thought you were ignoring my comments (on the same topic) just to taunt me. Hey, I guess he could still be right.

  • Mattoc

    The fever-pitch reaction to SLP on the festival circuit seemed irrational.
    The idea that SLP would get nom’d with the Big 6 seemed irrational
    The fact that I agree with all the negative thoughts about the movie and yet put it in my top 5 of the year seems irrational.

    Yet they all happened.

    I loved the movie straight away but I had a hard time reconciling why I loved it so much considering the characters were not believable and the story was cheesy.

    In the end I think the characters ( narrative aside) would not be a stranger in a Solandz movie – except everybody wins for once.

  • Zooey

    @ Sasha,

    I hate playing the one who always makes these kinds of comments (or maybe I enjoy it), but it’s not the first time it happened. The Academy and the DGA were ridiculously out of sync in 1968 and 1969. Even worse than now.

  • Zooey

    I can’t understand why people say LES MISERABLES will win the Golden Globe. I saw the film yesterday and it was LAUGHABLE. It wasn’t bad. It was laughable. The camera felt like a 00’s computer game. The performances felt fake and I blame Hooper.

    SLP on the other hand worked for me. I see all the weaknesses and I’m aware they’re there. And no, Bradley Cooper, DeNiro and even Jacki Weaver aren’t anywhere near Oscar caliber work. But it’s a film that touches something in everybody without being your typical romantic comedy. To me LINCOLN will win the Oscar in the end, but tonight I believe it’ll win two Globes – for Tommy Lee Jones and screenplay.

  • Leocdc

    How much time until GG begins their transmission?

  • Bryce Forestieri

    LOLOLOL Remember when LES MIZ was the frontrunner?
    wherever the fuck that came from?! Some screening in New York where some pussies cried wasn’t it??

  • Race is more tight than ever, and bearing in mind two factors (voted before the Oscar noms were announced, and the love for glamour of the HFPA) my suspictions – more than predictions go like this:

    Picture Drama: Argo
    Actor Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress Drama: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    Picture C/M: Les Miserables
    Actor C/M: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Actress C/M: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Director: Ben Affleck, Argo
    Supp. Actor: Leonardo di Caprio, Django Unchained
    Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Screenplay: Django Unchained
    Song: Skyfall
    Score: Life of Pi
    Animated: Frankenweenie
    Foreign: Amour (but Untouchables can easily upset)

    I may be easily wrong on all counts, I’m only almost sure about Hathaway…

  • Mattoc

    It was a perceived frontrunner before it screened I think, with the release of the first trailer. The 2nd trailer killed a bit of the buzz. Since its release, apart from the Blair Witch Project crowd, it hasn’t been a frontrunner

  • daveinprogress

    My tips for Globes
    Drama: Lincoln
    Director: Spielberg
    Actor Drama: Daniel Day Lewis
    Actress Drama: Jessica Chastain
    Comedy: Silver Linings
    Actor Comedy/Musical: Hugh Jackman
    Actress Comedy/Musical: Jennifer Lawrence
    Supp Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
    Supp Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Screenplay: Lincoln

  • Panda

    Does anyone have a streaming link?

  • Bob Burns

    wonderful if we got winners for several films from all the different groups. the lockstep repetition of winners from precursor to to precursor is ludicrous. Any given year there are 5 – 10 worthy BP winners.

  • The Great Dane

    Yes, please help, ANYONE. Which site(s) will stream the Globes this year? 🙂

  • Christophe

    Quote from Amy Poehler in her pre-hosting-the-globes itw:

    “I just watched The Impossible, which is unbelievable. Holy moly, it was so good. The young actor in that, Tom Holland. Best acting I’ve seen all year. He’s not nominated for a Golden Globe, but I might accidentally read his name.”

    I so wish she does! If only the academy had watched the movie it would have received a slew of noms (actor, actress, supp actor, vfx, art direction, even bp). Now they absolutely have to award Naomi Watts to make up for their snub.

  • Streisand’s snub – twice for Yentl and The Prince of Tides – is a timeless shame for Academy.

    I guess this year Golden Globes will be so much more interesting than Oscars…

    My predictions.

    Best Picture Drama: Argo

    Best Actor, Drama: Joaquin Phoenix

    Best Actress, Drama: Naomi Watts

    Best Picture Musical/Comedy: Silver Linings Playbook

    Best Actor, Musical/Comedy: Bradley Cooper

    Best Actress, Musical/Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence

    Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman

    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

    Director: Ben Affleck, Argo

    Screenplay: Chris Terrio, Argo

    Animated: Frankenweenie

    Score: Life of Pi

    Foreign: Amour

    Song: Skyfall

  • LOLOLOL Remember when LES MIZ was the frontrunner?
    wherever the fuck that came from?! Some screening in New York where some pussies cried wasn’t it??

    Ew lol. War Horse anyone? Bitch please.

    Streisand’s snub – twice for Yentl and The Prince of Tides – is a timeless shame for Academy.

    I don’t get why people have been so pissed off about Yentl. What a dull film! It’s not sexist to snub a shit film directed by a woman.

  • zazou

    So Les Miserables was ,”laughable,”,well the poster who said that has a peculiar sense of humor. Les Miserables got its ass kicked by film critics who were determined to prevent,”an Oscar sweep of Les Miserables.” These people are supporting other films, ones they think are more worthy, at least according to them.One critic even compared Hugo’s 19th century work to Mama Mia, now that is a stretch.The fans of LM expressed their displeasure with the critical negativity. Tis the season for Oscar bad behavior.

  • Someone

    My predictions:

    Best Picture Drama: Argo

    Best Actor, Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis

    Best Actress, Drama: Jessica Chastaine

    Best Picture Musical/Comedy: Les Miserables

    Best Actor, Musical/Comedy: Bradley Cooper

    Best Actress, Musical/Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence

    Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones

    Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

    Director: Ben Affleck, Argo

    Screenplay: Django

    Animated: Frankenweenie

    Score: Anna Karenina

    Foreign: Amour

    Song: Skyfall

  • eclipse22

    good luck joaquin phoenix!!!!! good luck hugh jackman!!!
    good luck adele!!!

  • Jerry Grant

    Picture (drama): Zero Dark Thirty
    Director: Kathryn Bigelow
    Picture (comedy): Silver Linings Playbook
    Actor (drama): DDL
    Actress (drama): Jessica Chastain
    Actor (comedy): Hugh Jackman
    Actress (comedy): Jennifer Lawrence
    Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway
    Screenplay: Lincoln

  • BlueFox94

    Go “ARGO” and “WRECK-IT RALPH”!!!
    From the Globes to the Guilds to the Oscars! 😀

  • Denni

    Do you guys know if there’s a livestream? I’m at work but I got my iPad, would love some links please.

  • Bondisteve

    Picture Drama: Argo
    Actor Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
    Actress Drama: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
    Picture C/M: Les Miserables
    Actor C/M: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
    Actress C/M: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
    Director: Ben Affleck, Argo
    Supp. Actor: Leonardo di Caprio, Django Unchained
    Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
    Screenplay: Lincoln
    Song: Skyfall
    Score: Life of Pi
    Animated: Brave
    Foreign: Amour

  • Andrew

    The golden globes only tell us what that small group of foreign press liked, so even in a year where Avatar beat Hurt Locker, that did not mean anything for AMPAS.

    It is good to have stats, but they can always be twisted to suit an argument, and the awards process is not scientific, so cannot be reduced to statistical interpretation.

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