hathaway sag

jennifer sag

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK”
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

Screen Actors Guild 49th Annual Life Achievement Award

julianna moore sag

hathaway sag

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  • So far I like Kerry Washington’s dress best. And Tina Fey’s hair is perfect. I think I just saw JLaw. I heard she was supposed to be super sick though. I hope she’s alright.

  • Reno

    Skyfall wins stunt, 0 for 1 so far on my predix, I’m gunning for 0/6. The Bourne Legacy stunts were better.

  • Tufas

    Has it started? The stream is showing a red carpet event still


  • Mrs. Rochester

    Hello!! Could anyone provide a link to watch the ceremony online for those of us overseas? Thanks in advance!!!

  • 30 minutes Tufas

  • Tufas

    Thanks Ryan, wasn’t sure I was watching a live event.


  • Mrs Rochester

    Thanks guys!!!!!!

  • kasper

    I wish the TNT link was better for me because the AP interviewers are embarrassing. Total pena ajena !

  • Smoothcriminal

    Kasper, I came here to say the exact same thing, they are so awkward it’s making me really anxious watching them! How does the guy not know that he has to talk into the mic?

  • kasper

    I know! He probably wishes he wasn’t talking to his mic when he called Alfre Woodard by the wrong name, Viola Davis.

  • Reno

    Kevin is attempting suicide, Ryan do something.

  • Zazu

    Do we know if the AP stream will also be streaming the actual awards show? If not, is there another place to watch it?!

  • SallyinChicago

    I got nothing….still looking at the Red Carpet event…still don’t know WHY Gabby Douglas is on the carpet.

  • daveinprogess

    Have fun everybody! 🙂

  • Sara

    Please put the link for watching the show! I’m from Croatia, Europe!

  • Tufas

    Sadly, I think AP Live on livestream.com only does red carpet events, judging from their page there.


  • Rafael

    To watch the show:


    Have fun everybody!

  • tesh

    live stream please! not sureif AP is streaming awards show?

  • akumax

    thanks a lot Rafael.

  • Tufas

    Beware of Rafael’s link. its an ad explosion and nothing is showing.


  • Yes!!!!!!!!

    GO, ARGO CAST, GO!!!!!!!!!!

  • SallyinChicago

    I got something, I think: Daily Motion

  • carl

    Canadian TV sucks!!!!
    Global announced the broadcast and instead it’s a crappy Debbie Travis reality show… GRRRRRR

  • kasper

    Wait… did Tommy Lee JOnes win? My stream skipped!

  • Aragorn


  • Corvo

    Tommy Lee Jones best supporting actor.

  • Jerry Grant

    Yes. 1 for 1. Good start.

  • akumax

    no stream for me… any good link please? Thanks

  • kasper

    Yay @RyanAdams, I hope one of your NGNG is actually going to happen now!

  • PaulH

    No surprise about stunt ensemble. Heaven forbid any award show recognizes The Dark Knight Rises this time of year.

  • Aragorn

    Of course Anne….

  • Corvo

    Anne Hathaway!

  • PaulH

    Major props to Jennifer Lawrence, battling pneumonia, and still being there. Best dressed of the night by far.

  • Mattoc

    “and the actor goes to…”

    An actor

    Nice going SAG

  • Jay

    Anne’s speeches are so insufferable… An Oscar upset would be delightful, if only to spare us one more of these.

  • Aragorn

    If nothing else that speech will win her Oscar….

    It was a nice shout out to Dark Knight Rises

  • kasper

    I spoke too soon. Save your rehearsed tears for the Oscars, Annie.

  • If any of the above links don’t work for anyone, this one works for me:


  • filmboymichael

    carl – i’m livid – it’s been advertised all week and we get this shitty show in replace of it?

  • SallyinChicago
  • steve50

    “Canadian TV sucks!!!!”

    DITTO. Now how the fuck do I eat cabbage rolls and salad next to my keyboard?

    Screw it – Downton and Spartacus it is.

  • Backson

    Now we can stop over trivializing Supporting Actress. Anne Hathaway is clearly winning the Oscar.

    Overall, I found her speech inoffensive. But, well, it’s Anne Hathaway, so people will still hate her.

  • Max DaVinci

    Wow, I really thought Robert DeNiro was taking it, and I wanted him to.

  • Nik G

    carl, I feel the same way man I wanna break my Canadian TV or write an angry letter to Global. Fuckers.

    Missed TLJ winning, hoped it would be PSH. Oh well.

    Just saw Hathaway win, thanks to Rafael’s stream link (thanks Raf!!!) – most predictable win ever?

    Hoping there’s a surprise in store here…

  • Jd!


    go here for the show. that’s where i’m watching it! and it’s working fine 🙂

  • Hathaway. Good job, girl. Carring alone 3 hours of a ridicule film in her sholders… And less than 20 min in scene… Almost a hero!

  • kasper

    @PaulH, your thing for Jennifer Lawrence went from consistently amusing to downright creepy.

  • daveinprogress

    Well, oscar supporting actor tougher to predict all the time. I was hoping for a P Hoffman win here – oh well. Anne & Sally, puts those catty comments about the insincerity of both to bed. Very gracious all round. Academy Awards Winner Anne Hathaway.

  • Rafael

    Naomi cheering Nicole was so cute!!!

  • Well, I´m watching on stream and also on twitter.
    Bot sometimes I´ll take a look here.

  • Jerry Grant

    TLJ over DeNiro or PSH is telling, I think…I hope…
    It means it will be the only one with two acting wins before “ensemble”. It means they don’t see “Lincoln” as just about DDL? Maybe?

  • Akumax

    thank you Paddy Mulholland , your link works for me!


  • I know, right? Naomi cheering Nicole is something that will remain in my memory for the rest of my life! Currently, in fact, it is my life.

  • akumax

    again him… no

  • Gee

    Could Anne Hathaway be any more annoying?

  • Aragorn

    Enough with Alec Baldwin. Hopefully this is last time for a while

  • daveinprogress

    Enough Alec Baldwin already – 8 wins – Cripes! If Betty White wins, i’m going to have a full on tanty!

  • Jay

    Forget Hathaway… Alec Baldwin winning here is the most predictable award win ever. He’s never lost over the run of 30 Rock!

  • kasper

    Crossing my fingers for Lena Dunham or Laura Dern… oh wait…

  • Corvo

    Thanks for the link Jd! It works for me…

  • PaulH

    Kasper, what the fuck are you talking about? She’s been reported to have pneumonia, yet she’s there tonight. I said she was the best dressed one there. How the duck can you translate that into something creepy????

    You are dismissed, sir. Done.

  • kasper

    They need a new name for their award. And the Actor goes to just sounds wrong.

  • Let Tina Fey stay up there.

  • Aragorn

    You cant help loving TIna Fey

  • Matt

    Hathaway, Baldwin, Fey. So much Starfucking.

  • daveinprogress

    Love Tina Fey – another series please! So funny.
    Also loved Kerry Washington bury her way out of the autocue misread. Classy!

  • kasper

    To show up even though you have pneumonia is not commendable, it’s stupid.

  • Corvo

    Modern Family again??? Please!

  • tr

    Okay, serious question…how the hell does Baldwin keep winning this? It’s beyond absurd at this point. Even he acknowledges how silly it is.

  • Eoin Daly

    I really thought 30 Rock would win

  • daveinprogress

    Ed O’neill looked like the producers of Frasier after they won 5 times in a row the Emmy for outstanding comedy series. Bored. Thankfully Jesse was succinct, gracious and funny. Kinda like the show – It’s gonna keep on winning for many years, and hopefully without Fey/Baldwin, some individual MF actors might win a SAG, like they dominate the Emmy supporting categories.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    So happy for Tommy Lee Jones. He’s winning the Oscar too!

  • It’s good that you’re happy, Bryce. Cos you know he probs isn’t!

  • SallyinChicago

    @Corvo, I agree there are so many other shows that are constantly overlooked, like New Girl, and to have serial wins is just too much. Maybe those shows pay more SAG union dues than the other shows?

  • Liev, move!

  • kasper

    This is going to Julianne Moore, which is so great because I think around Emmy times, someone in here mentioned she’s never really accepted an award at a televised event before, which is kind of shocking. It’s funny Sarah Palin had to been unleashed on the world for it to happen.

  • SallyinChicago

    Such a terrible dress on Julianne — she needs COLOR!

  • SallyinChicago

    Such a boring awards show….so predictable!

  • Aragorn

    And hopefully one day Julianne Moore will win her Oscar. In a world where even J.Chastain is considered as overdue, J. Moore shold have won at least one Oscar by now. One day…..

  • Corvo

    I hope that’s not the reason!

  • f

    Julianne Morre, The Great, could win an Oscar for Game Change if it was made for screen…
    One day…

  • And Kevin Costner is back! 🙂

  • kasper

    This is the most glamorous union event I’ve ever witnessed.

  • SallyinChicago

    How much are SAG dues? Or do they take a % of earnings?

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I love Julianne Moore but she needs to work with a great director again and soon

  • Bob Burns

    not especially an Ann-fan, but her look is exceptional.

    Thank God for Timberlake! Break the tyranny of black tuxes! (no ridiculoua powder blue, of course) – he pulls off the finest male, fashion-forward statement in memory.

  • kasper

    @Sally, I believe it’s a sliding scale based on how much you earn. I have no idea what the cheapest due amounts to though.

  • tr

    Moore should have an Oscar already for Boogie Nights.

  • Where’s Weather Tite Mike’s SAG award? He even baked his own cookie!

  • Lana

    Well congrats to tlj……now hoping for naomi watts…….

  • Hearing the Les Mis songs without the accompanying visual makes so much clearer how out of tune they are! It doesn’t have nearly as much effect in context. I’m all for live singing in musicals, and I don’t think it affected the quality of Les Mis, on the whole, but adding emotion at the expense of technical perfection and timbre is far preferable to adding emotion at the expense of tuning. Sounds like the Les Mis cast did away with both. Shame. Better direction might have sorted that out.

  • SAG Actor

    The dues are based on both. A base fee and a % of your earnings.

  • PaulH

    Refrigerator break time…this’ll take about a half-hour.

  • Luke

    Alec Baldwin’s winning again just shows how ridiculous this award is.

  • SallyinChicago

    For a 85 yr old he looks damn good….but I said that about Ernest Borgnine last year at 95 yrs. old.

  • Elton

    Some people still haven’t realized that orange skin is really weird.

  • daveinprogress

    I haven’t seen too many 87 year olds leap up stairs in the way Dick Van Dyke just did! I’ll have what he’s having. That irrepresible smile and spirit. Amazing.

  • Corvo

    How long will this show last? It’s 3.10 am here in Italy….

  • Stacey

    I don’t think Les Mis was out of tune. Their voices were definitely not as powerful as the musical but the singing is adequate.

  • Corvo, 45 more minutes

  • Corvo

    Ok, thanks.

  • Max DaVinci

    YESSS Heisenberg, at last.

  • Nik G


  • All the oldies couldn’t be fucked going. So Dev Patel.

  • Aragorn

    “I think i am an actor, not an actress”. Well said!!!

  • Chris138

    I like Anne Hathaway and think she’s a good actress… but I just have a feeling she’s going to give the most obnoxious and annoying speech at the Oscars, especially if any of her recent wins are any indication. It might remind viewers of the time Gwyneth Paltrow won the Oscar.

  • Typo in the obits! Michael ClarkE Duncan! Not good…

  • Elton

    So happy that Damian Lewis lost this but also sad about Claire Danes. I’m so in love with Lange’s Sirster Jude that if I were a voter I would not even think about voting in anyone else.

  • Reno

    Best Recently Departed Award goes to… Celeste Holm!

  • Koleś

    I didn’t know Charles Durning passed away 🙁

  • Carlos

    “Please welcome Jessica Chast……….ain”

  • Reno

    I just realized my last 2 comments were kinda morbid… knock-on-wood.

  • PaulH

    Lets go Downton Abbey!

  • Aragorn

    Now this is a surprise. Downtown Abbey.

    ” shut the french windows”. Lol 😉

  • Celeste Holm was so luminous and special…

  • PaulH

    Enough with the Homeland, Breaking Bad and Mad Men loveliest.

  • Max DaVinci

    First surprise, Downton. :O

  • Elton



    well deserved. it’s really the best cast. such a great series, one of my favorites

  • All those years in the industry, and neither Sally Field nor Daniel Day-Lewis can remember their lines. Tut tut tut.

  • Aragorn

    Ohhh please dont let DDL to present/announc any award unless he spends 6 months preparing for it…he needs to go method for that!!

  • Nik G

    Was that Sally Field and DDL intro super awkward for anyone else too?

  • Alexander

    Best Actress… This is the one huge award of this whole race on this night, it seems to me.

  • PaulH

    OK, Jen, lets get this done…

  • Corvo


  • Aragorn

    Wawwwww. Jennifer Lawrence….

    Still it is up in the air….remember Viola Davis last year…and Riva was not nominated tonight…

  • Antoinette

    YAY! Jennifer Lawrence. WOOHOO!!!

  • J Law! #sagawards

  • Even if it’s the last thing we do!

    Gotta love it.

  • Alexander


  • PaulH

    Thanks for playing, Jessica Chastain. You are DONE. FINISHED. FINITO. As it should be. And this is as much a win for The Hunger Games as it is for SLP.

  • Aragorn

    This means one thing: Naomi Watts’ chance is dead now. She should have won this with all that supposed support from her peers…..

  • Elton


  • mel

    This is bullshit. That preview showed how bad Jennifer Lawrence is an actress. A REAL actress would have jump onto Bradley’s neck, Jennifer simply grabbed it.

  • superkk

    so glad she won. also glad TLJ got his much deserved win as well(was getting scared them for a moment).

    wouldnt mind hugh jackman winning but thats wishful thinking haha..

  • Max DaVinci

    So I guess the Academy for Best Actress is a little more predictable now. Congratulations Jennifer Lawrence.

  • Gregoire

    Jennifer Lawrence just made the case for Oscar voters to make Silver Lining Playbook its Best Picture. Paraphrased: “You made a picture for your son. But you’ve helped more than just your son.”

  • WOO

    Go Jennifer Lawrence!

  • ScottyDon’t!

    PaulH, so I guess Meryl Streep was finished after SAG last year when she lost to Viola Davis?

  • Jackio

    Jennifer Lawrence is totally going to win that Oscar now. Damnnnn

  • And this is as much a win for The Hunger Games as it is for SLP.

    Oh yeah, cos The Hunger Games got how many nominations?

  • Jerry Grant

    Looks like I’ll be going 4 for 4 on actor predictions. Let’s see if Ensemble: Lincoln pans out. Let’s go Lincoln let’s go Lincoln

  • NatNat

    Hell yeah!!!!! So glad Jen won. She’s absolutely amazing and her speech was so cool.

  • Cyrus

    Jennifer Lawrence just won her last award for Silver Linings tonight.

    EMMANUELLE RIVA IS GOING TO WIN THE OSCAR AND BAFTA!!!! Award a real brilliant performance, no more child’s play here.

  • Kane

    Did J Law’s dress just rip big time? My jaw was hanging.

  • daveinprogress

    So two young actresses to win Oscars this year – Hathaway (30) and Lawrence (22)?

  • Alexander

    Meryl Streep was an entirely different case, though, ScottyDon’t!. If anything, she had been *under*-awarded by AMPAS for years and years.

    Moreover, it’s evident that there is genuine enthusiasm among AMPAS members for Silver Linings Playbook. So… I’d say J-Law’s got this one pretty easily. Not to mention the whole Harvey factor.

  • Reno

    Yes, Jennifer Lawrence, the best thing about SLP. Congrats!

  • Aragorn

    I think all thos actors that voted her her dont know what acting should be. Otherwise why would they have voted for her????

  • phantom


    I only hope Jessica Chastain will be cast in a James Cameron movie soon, then maybe you can appreciate her for who she is : a truly brilliant actress.

  • DDL e Field changing glasses?
    So boooooooooooooooooooooooooooring…
    Kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk #fail

  • mindy

    Jennifer Lawrence won Golden Globe, Satellite Award, and now a Screen Actors Guild. Doesn’t take a genius to figure out that she’s winning that Oscar.

  • Jay

    Jennifer Lawrence was the best thing about Silver Linings. She wasn’t supposed to be likeable but she was. She was so likeable. I loved her speech too. Great actress and cool chick.

  • Mrs Rochester

    @Elton: I find your comment so unfair: Claire Danes win owes SOOO much to Damian Lewis performance!!! He was exceptional, great performance all along the season…

  • flor

    Riva will end up winning.

  • SallyinChicago

    So what does the membership have against Jessica Chastain? She can’t get a break!

  • superkk

    i honestly i keep thinking that bc rivas birthday is on the oscars she will win lol. well see what the baftas do i guess..

  • Jerry Grant

    The only one that could beat Lawrence at the Oscars is Riva

  • Aragorn

    Viola Davis. Such a beautiful and elegant woman….

  • Alexander

    That’s all very true, mindy. 🙂

  • Aragorn

    DDL…of course

  • SallyinChicago

    Why does the camera pan to Denzel Washington WHEN Viola Davis comes on stage? Why do they do THAT?

  • Antoinette

    Woot! DDL!!!

  • Brian


  • Film Fatale

    Congrats to PaulH for the most delysi

  • phantom


    Agreed, this was Naomi Watts’s last chance to emerge as a stronger than expected contender. Well, maybe Diana next year ?

  • PaulH

    Jessica Chast-ain’t indeed.

  • DDL honnored Phoenox! AAAAHHH!!!!!!!!!! #sagawards #joaquinphoenix

  • Aragorn

    DDL. Great speech….

  • Alexander

    LOL Day-Lewis! Hahaha. Love that man.

  • Winston

    Very happy for Jennifer Lawrence. She had two massive performances this year. And her performance in SLP was remarkable. Everyone keeps trying to find a way of taking the award from her, but she’s earned it.

  • Aragorn

    Why on earth Jude Law presents the final, biggest award? They usually go with a bigger name

  • Heather


  • Brian

    Argo is unstoppable.

  • ARGO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😀

  • Ismael Ibarra

    OMG :O Can Argo win without the Director nod at the Oscars. Argo is on a roll.

  • Alexander

    LOL SAG. LOL Argo. LOL “poor Ben Affleck.” Oh my God, what a ridiculous, horrid Oscar race.

  • Antoinette

    Told you. It’s their Best Picture award.

  • LaQuifa Wadley

    Thank you for making it about the Weinsteins and not the performance.

  • representDLV

    So is it all over?

  • Jerry Grant

    What? Argo? Come on

  • JP

    Sally, Viola and Danzel acted together in a very rewarded Broadway play : Fences. Both won the Tonys.

  • Corvo

    ARGO! Best Picture now is a lock!

  • Gregoire

    Hmmm, so Argo really IS the front-runner.

  • Aragorn

    So all those statistics and history notes are to be thrown out…Argo indeed may win Best Picture, despite all those stats, etc….

  • Helen

    @Paddy Mulholland, pretty sure he meant her performance in that movie, not the film itself. Which I tend to agree.

  • Anthony



  • Film Fatale

    Congratulations to PaulH for the most delusional corny of the evening — “as it should be” — yeah, right. Prom Queen did good tonight against Chastain, the true winner and consummate actress.

    Damned shame what Hollywood has come to. Once Streep won the Oscar for Sophie’s Choice and now we are about to award this fake character and unpolished new star.

  • Hawkeye

    Congrats to SAG for embarrassing themselves by choosing the worst of the five casts.

  • Fat Tony

    Argo, fuck yourself.

    You and your actors were nothing special.

  • Alexander

    Aragorn, I think whoever made that decision lives in an alternate world in which Jude Law became a genuine movie star in America after being in eighteen movies in 2004.

  • Ivan

    Argo!!! If there was any doubt that Argo wasn’t the frontrunner I guess that’s settled.

  • mel

    FUCK YEAH ARGO!!!!! Anything but SLP!

  • SallyinChicago

    Well that does it — ARGO for the win….sorry BOTSW.

  • phantom

    With all the due respect : WHAT THE FUCK ? Argo was probably the least deserving nominee in the category…and I LOVED Argo.

  • superkk

    im sorry but argo did not have the best acting of a cast. that has to be the dumbest choice and is definitely a cop out lol.

  • Free

    SAG Award. Golden Globe. Critics Choice. PGA. Not bad for a film that was made without a director.

  • FilmFatale

    “Comment” that was, not corny.

  • Aragorn

    This could easily seal the deal for Lincoln:(((

    It really needed to win this…

  • ScottyDon’t!

    If Argo wins DGA, then it’s obvious that Argo is going to be win Best Picture at the Oscars.

    I still think Best Actress is up in the air, but I can see Jennifer Lawrence winning based on the fact that she appeals to both nerds, hipsters, middling film people, and older men who all seem to have a hard-on for her and think everything she does is gold.

  • Akumax

    To all the other nominees it is time to say: Argofuckyourselves. Hollywood has decided, Argo is the best Picture of 2012…

    But How many Oscar can it win?

    of one thing I’m sure, Jennifer Lawrence is so NOT winning the Oscar for best actress.

  • SallyinChicago

    Ditto me too. I thought Argo was GOOD, not GREAT, but all bets go to Argo for Best Picture.

  • Jerry Grant

    Objectively bad choice for SAG ensemble. Very sad they are not recognizing this incredible movie called Lincoln

  • Robert A.


    You can’t stop what’s coming.

  • Tufas

    Not happy DDL zoolander version of Lincoln won, but happy for Argo. Superior movie!

    Time for bed. Ok awards (would have picked Chastain instead of JLaw and Cooper – yes, Cooper – instead of Zoolander.


  • Koleś

    Frontrunner? Right now, sure. But the DGA may well turn the tide. Remember “The Departed”?

  • Phil Boroff

    Tonight, we saw the Oscar winners in the five top categories. Only the Director award remains open, and that will be decided with the DGA Awards — probably!

  • Jerry Grant

    Lincoln needed to win these last two Guild awards, and it didn’t. There goes my #1 film of the year

  • edkargir

    So I guess the 7th best film of the year in my opinion will win BP . Ben will win the DGA on Saturday.

  • knee_play

    Let’s not forget Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, won the SAG, went into the Oscars without a director nom and lost Picture. My money’s still on Lincoln.

  • Sandy

    OMG I’m so happy for Jennifer Lawrence! Not a huge fan but this girl makes me so happy to see her success. Only 22, two huge franchises, and an Oscar winner? Can you imagine?

  • Elton

    After this is undeniable that “Argo” is the front-runner. They obviously didn’t vote for its cast, they voted for the film. They wanted to say “we like this picture”.

  • Kate

    Argo. What a joke.

  • The Great Dane

    Come on, Hawkeye, saying that Argo has the worst of the all the nominated casts. Say what you want about Argo as an ensemble movie, but the acting was impeccable.

    Just so weird that with so many movies everyone thought that the awards were gonna spread all over the place come awards shows time. But Argo is sweeping.

    With the stats being such an important factor in Sasha’s predictions every year, what happens next year if Argo wins Best Picture? Stats are seriously going out the window – every year we see awards going to someone/something that statistically can’t win. Exception is the new statistic. 🙂

  • To all those calling the race over, there are four weeks left, and Ben Affleck ain’t winning that Best Director Oscar. Another guy will, and that film will possibly be major competition for Argo, even if it wins DGA, WGA and ACE (all quite likely).

  • Suck this stupid Academy!
    ARGO FUCK YOURSELF!!!!!!!!!!!! #argo #benaffleck #sagawards
    ‘Argo’ Wins Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture http://shar.es/CexdC #SAGAwards

  • mel

    “unpolished new star” is the best description I have seen of Lawrence thus far.
    If we, as audience are forced to buy a bad actress’ hype, at least give us someone who has taken acting classes and is not proud of her lack of technique.

  • g

    Wow argo! I thought Lincoln had the best cast but I loved Argo so I’m thrilled, the sag did a great job except Jessica Chastain should of won for ba!

  • Bibi

    So happy for Jen Lawrence.

  • SallyinChicago

    Did anyone think it ODD that the STUNT Awards were announced from the REd Carpet? I mean how much time would they take up to accept the award on stage?

  • Alexander

    The only prayer Lincoln has is if Spielberg wins the DGA.

    At this point I almost wouldn’t be shocked if Kushner were to lose the WGA, though.

  • Julian Walker

    Argo wins Best Picture at the Academy Awards then???

  • JP

    Affleck’s resume: one Oscar… Gone Baby Gone, Good Will Hunting, The Town and Argo. Kathleen Kennedy’s resume: zero Oscars… E.T, Back to the Future, Munich, The Color Purple, The Sixth Sense, exec. Prod. Schindlers List. I dont get who is the victim.

  • Sallyin Chicago

    I don’t get Argo either. I think it’s a good movie, well made, but not GREAT and there was no outstanding ACTING in the movie….not even Alan Arkin was OUTSTANDING….weird and odd! And what’s with them not allowing the stunt winner(s) to receive their award on stage?

  • BB

    @mel you comment on every Jennifer Lawrence post saying she’s a “bad actress” but comment on every single Kristen Stewart post saying she’s the “best actress of her generation”. You’ve got your actresses mixed up hun.

  • Jerry Grant

    Exactly. It’s my #7 as well. In a less awesome year, it would feel like a #5 kind of movie. Really super good movie–awesome, lovable, etc. But doesn’t go to that special place. (In this way, it would fall in line with many good Best Picture winners, and it still would be a way better pick than The Artist.) Not the worst thing that could happen, but… it’s the non-challenging choice

  • Vu Dinh

    God, here we go again… People always have some kind of assumption that Ensemble meaning some flashy and crying performances of main and supporting actors or actress… Ensemble means everyone in the movie and no doubt Argo has done the best… Even the background actors in the movie have done their jobs well-done… Look at those people who were invading the Embassy in the beginning of the movie… That was fantastic…

  • Rafael

    Why do JLaw fans have to bring Hunger Games as an excuse for her “overdue” Oscar? She was good in SLP but she’s not polished yet. Chastain was a much stronger character and Watts was much more emotionally charged.

    As much as it hurts me, I have to say Naomi is out of the race now, hopefully she’ll be back next year with Diana. So now, I’m Team Emmanuelle!

  • SallyinChicago

    If you do over to deadline, one of the stunt men has a rant in the messages and threatens to quit SAG….they are an angry bunch!

  • Brian

    Well I don’t think Russell is going to win Director if SLP couldn’t mount a challenge with SAG ensemble. It seemed tailor-made for that win. For a myriad of reasons, I don’t see Zeitlin winning. So Haneke, Spielberg, and Lee will be pushing for the gold. I don’t have hopes that DGA will clear this up, so I am probably leaning towards Haneke, maybe with a win to recognize his career. I don’t know nothing. Argo’s acting? Good lord.

  • Free

    @Alexander: I’ve actually always thought Adapted Screenplay would go to Silver Linings Playbook or Argo. Of course, the Oscars clearly have their own preferences this year, but I don’t expect Lincoln to pick up more than 3 awards on Oscar night, if that.

  • Jase

    On the one hand, Jeff Wells will gloat unbearably when Lincoln loses Best Picture to Argo. But on the other hand, Sasha still gets the last laugh when SLP loses and Lincoln still ends up a bigger winner with Actor and Director. Spielberg winning his 3rd Oscar will stick in Jeff’s craw and that’s good enough for me.

  • comedywontwin

    Those are the winners of The Oscar EXCEPT Jennifer Lawrence, she will lose the oscar to Chastain…Oscars like to reward drama actresses not comedy. Chastain will win the oscar….SAG snubbed Nicole Kidman for Renee Zelweger when Kidman got better critics reviews and she won the GG….So I still think JLaw will lose to wonderful Chastain.

  • paulH

    What Winston said, re: Lawrence +1. BAFTA will be con-jobbed into giving actress to Riva merely because of her age and career achievement thing. This race is o.v.e.r.

  • parker

    Somebody talk Sasha down from that ledge….

  • AnthonyP

    Can we all hop off of the Lincoln bandwagon now and agree that Argo will be the Best Picture of 2012?

  • JP

    Argo obviously was the worst of the nominated casts. Maybe even Skyfall was more of an ensemble achievement. But one of the best films undoubtedly.

  • Adam

    Argo is not Little Miss Sunshine. It has BFCA and Globe wins for Pic/Director plus a slew of big critic wins. LMS may have had PGA and SAG, but thats pretty much it.

  • JennyL33

    Argo!!! YES!!!! That is one Guilds that I didn’t see it coming. I thought it is going to be Lincoln tonight due to Lincoln won 2 for 2 before the final category.

  • Sasha and Ryan,

    Please, post a beautuful pic of Argo´s victory here!

  • Pierre de Plume

    Tonight’s win for Argo puts the film in a strong position at least for the moment. However, the WGA and DGA I think are more important at this point for Lincoln to take the Oscar. And let’s not forget that Tommy Lee Jones won in a strong field this evening.

  • christiannnw

    Annoyed with Jennifer Lawrence, but at least I feel confident sticking a fork in Silver Lining’s Oscar chances now; no BAFTA nominations for film or director, no DGA nomination, no other opportunities to win a major award between now and February 24th. Huzzah!

  • JennyL33

    I mean 2 for 3.

  • Aragorn

    I still wanna believe that Lincoln has a chance. It should win at least BAS for Kushner and a few others. I dont thik Best Actor will be its only win..it cant be 1 win out of 12 nominations… BSA, BAS are still possibility with BD…remember there is no Affleck at the Oscars

  • Julian Walker


  • Nelson

    It’s settled then, for the third year in a row a lesser film will win the Oscar. In movies, as sometimes in life, we settle for just that thing in the middle because we are afraid of something greater. They are only humans after all.

  • Brian

    Sally, I think it was simply a joke. They copy and pasted the names from the list above.

  • Reno

    Yup 0/6 in my predix. I predicted those I didn’t want to win, I’ll do that again come Oscar time. And I didn’t just predict the longshots save for Les Miz in stunts. SLP cast, Jessica and Sally — OUT!

    Argo will be an acceptable Oscar BP winner.

  • Ian

    “With all the due respect : WHAT THE FUCK ? Argo was probably the least deserving nominee in the category…and I LOVED Argo.”

    Agreed. Argo was one of my top 3 best movies of the year. However, that does not mean it had an outstanding ensemble cast. The movie was great because of good writing, editing, and direction, but any cast could have done those roles with just as much prowess as the cast they used. Even the cast of SLP, which I hated as a movie, was more deserving based on their acting abilities than Argo. Argo and BEMH were the weakest entries of the 5. Surely thought SLP, Les Mis, or Lincoln was going to take this home….the 3 best ENSEMBLE casts of the year….

  • Paddy I respect you trying to keep the game alive, but really?

    ARGO was NOT supposed to win SAG, and it seems everyone is now headed in his direction.

    SAG is by far the biggest voting body.

    Yeah, LINCOLN is hanging in, but barely. Believe me it pains me to make this concession, though I do like ARGO quite a bit.

    Spielberg would obviously have to win on Wednesday, Kushner would need the WGA, and then there is a little hope.

    But it seems like the writing is on the wall. The director’s snub was negotiated by a very small group. It appears it could be an ARGO/Spielberg split now, if indeed Spielberg can hold off Lee and Haneke.

    Looks like DAISY’s 1989 rarity will be duplicated now.

  • Woot

    Hate on Jennifer Lawrence all you want but she’s winning that Oscar now. People tried so hard to make sure she would loose to Jessica Chastain but it didn’t work. Jennifer gave a far more dramatic, lovely, and hardcore performance than Chastain did.

  • Rafael

    This is the first time I liked the Globes better than the SAG Awards… boring show…

  • knee_play

    @ Adam “Argo is not Little Miss Sunshine. It has BFCA and Globe wins for Pic/Director plus a slew of big critic wins. LMS may have had PGA and SAG, but thats pretty much it.”

    There is so overlap from Globes or BFCA voters with the Oscars. I don’t see how those matter.

  • Jerry Grant

    If we (hastily) assume Argo wins Best Picture now…… then the interesting question is who gets the #2 prize (Best Director)? And after we guess that… won’t it be tempting to decide that movie could actually be the one to beat Argo for Best Picture?

  • Alper

    jennifer lawrence is now unbeatable.

    and I’m happy for Argo. the movie (without director nomination) will win best

    picture at the Oscars. Lincoln is not a bad movie but so boring.

  • nixon

    Told you guys Lincoln was never in the race. It will win at max 1 award at the oscars. If Argo wins Dga it will sweep oscars..and ang lee wins at oscars.Argo snub is getting sympathy votes and for god only knows reason industry seems to be against lincoln..to be honest sag should have gone les miserables or lincoln or slp.

  • Brian

    I think SLP will feel this the hardest. Lincoln came out about as good as most hoped going into the night, winning both individuals. Who they lost too was mildly surprising though. Argo kept pace, and if it wins the DGA I think the race is over.

  • daveinprogress

    Ok, so what is clearer now post SAG?

    Supp Actor: Probably TLJ, but still could go any which way. Hoffman (sheer intensity) Waltz (momentum post Globe) Arkin (Argo Momentum) and DeNiro (sentiment/momentum SLP)

    Supp Actress: Hathaway – if i were a betting man, i would place a lot….

    Actor: DDL (no worries there)

    Actress: Lawrence (much more secure – only Chastain a spoiler; low chance now)

    Best Picture: Out of the running – Les Miz (needed more than Anne here to be a threat); Zero Dark 30 (needed Jessica to win) ; SLP (it needed more than Jennifer to be a real threat. Should have taken Ensemble with that group) Amour, Beasts, Django – longshots already. SAG omissions unhelpful.

    Unknowns: Pi – only a DGA win can give it the shot; will still win techs

    Lincoln -v- Argo – the duelling pictures.

  • helios

    The most disappointing result was Lawrence’s win. Hope Chastain/Riva wins the Oscar

  • Gabriel

    Well, at this point Argo is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, if any movie is beating it comes Oscar night, this movie is Lincoln, but Argo cleary has the momentum.

    People are citing examples like Little Miss Sunshine, but are forgetting about the particularities of each year. That year was “Scorsese never won an Oscar” year. Argo is not facing anything like that. The Academy doesn’t really feel they need to reward Spielberg, they have done this twice before. And, when it comes to this, they can pretty much give him Best Director and award Argo with the big prize.

  • Koleś

    If you look at who was nominated for ensemble in “Lincoln” you kinda get the idea why they lost. I mean where the hell is Hawkes, Nelson, Harris, Pace, McRobbie, McGill, Haley, Stuhlbarg, McGiver, Goggins, Reuben, Strong and Oyelowo. How the hell, with a cast that big and each of them giving wonderful preformances you nominate only seven people. “Lincoln” has itself to blame for loosing ensemble. Same thing would happen to “Traffic” or “Chicago” if they would nominate just a couple of the big names for ensemble. Because of that I’m kinda glad “Argo” won.

  • Julian Walker


  • gbocampo

    Got 4/4 on film categories tonight!
    Argo, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Jones, Hathaway

    My final Oscar Predictions.

    Best Picture: Silver Linings Playbook (yes, you read it right)
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Licoln
    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
    Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Supporting Actor: Robert Deniro – Silver Linings Playbook
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

  • lucy

    Argo will win everything as a backlash to the oscars for not nominating Affleck for Director!:)

  • Winston

    To people that are upset that Lawrence won again (also won the AACTA award yesterday), let the bitterness flow through you. Let it sink in. Because Lawrence had the best performance this year, and I predicted a long time ago that when the guilds began to vote she would win. The only reason people don’t want her to win is because she is 22, and the hopeful spoilers have shifted from Chastain, to Watts, to Riva, and on and on. If she loses the Oscar it will be a joke.
    Argo looks like the winner now. Not sure if they had the best ensemble, but the ensemble award is essentially the best picture award for the SAG awards.
    Which means Best Director is totally up in the air.

  • unlikely hood

    I’m glad Fabinho Flapp posts here, or I wouldn’t believe anyone was passionate about Argo.

    Hey Fabinho – you’re not from Boston’s South Side are ya?

  • Ian

    “But it seems like the writing is on the wall. The director’s snub was negotiated by a very small group. It appears it could be an ARGO/Spielberg split now, if indeed Spielberg can hold off Lee and Haneke.”

    Funny how that very small group is now probably kicking themselves for not nominating Affleck. By snubbing him, they’ve generated an enormous amount of hollywood sympathy and handed Argo the best picture oscar on a silver platter…..

  • Bob Burns

    never underestimate Warner

  • unlikely hood

    Hey know-it-alls:

    Who’s gonna win the Oscar for Best Director?

  • gbocampo

    Best Director: Steven Spielberg – *Lincoln

  • JP

    Just my opinion… Argo is the frontrunner now… But sympathy may go away if they feel its winning tôo much already… Feb 8 is two weeks from now. It has dozens of similarities to Apollo 13…but Affleck is Affleck and Ron Howard is Ron Howard.

  • Brian

    If all this is because of Affleck’s snub, he should teach lessons on how to capitalize on it. If this had gone on when Spielberg was having issues with being snubbed, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest and/or Out of Africa would have been shit out of luck.

  • aAndrew

    Its been clear since slumdog won that ensemble is sags BP

  • mel

    @BB No, that must be another mel. My name is Melanie Jensen, I will start going by Melanie from now on so you don’t get me mixed up.
    BTW, best young actress is Saorise Ronan. Jennifer wishes she had natural talent like Saorise.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    SERIOUS QUESTION: Will Tony Kushner lose the Oscar to Chris Terrio?

  • Alper

    sorry guys but Riva has no chance. maybe she will win Bafta.

  • Radich

    Wasn’t Argo the frontrunner when this race started? Well, here we are, back at the beginning.

    I am not sad though, Argo is one of my favorites of the year. If is in the cards for it, good luck!

    Congrats to ALL the winners!

  • No, unlikely hood, I´m from Rio de Janeiro.
    Do you know where is it?

  • Reno

    @gbocampo, glad you’re very good in forecasting, but sadly you’re poor in math.

  • JP

    Haneke winning is ridiculous. Wont happen, doesnt deserve although a great director but… Come on… Fellini, Almodovar, De Sica, Bergman, Antonioni never had this treatment and are far and far better and more important. Why in a world they could not award hitchcock, kubrick and none of the foreigners I listed, he would be the foreigner chosen to go all the way to best director?

  • Lana

    Hmmmmmm, for some strange reason I dont see jlaw winning best actress on oscar night, but stranger things have happened! But I really hope argo does not take best pic. Like ben, but already its Overkill!

  • Guys, the 2nd great prize, the Oscar for Best Director will go to Ang Lee.

  • Brian

    Serious question, when was the last time you enjoyed how the Oscar season turned out? It has been too long for me. I kind of hoped this would be the year to break the dryspell. Perhaps I reached too high too fast.

  • BlueFox94

    Go “ARGO”!!! All the way to the Oscars!

  • Umair

    Agree w/ every award given out tonight, except the Best Ensemble award. Yes, Argo is one of the better movies of the year but that does not mean it has the best frikkin cast. Lincoln, Les Mis and SLP clearly had the best casts of the 5 noms and the award should have gone to one them and not Argo. In he end, there is diff b/w “best picture” and “best ensemble” and Argo was one of the least deserving of the 5 noms. That being said I see a potential Oscar upset happening and the Best Picture going to Lincoln or SLP.

  • Julian Walker


  • Jim

    @nelson…..what makes you think anyone is settling for a lesser film? Just because the film you like doesn’t win does not make them mediocre films. Sure that may be your opinion that they are settling, but you can’t say everyone thinks they way you do. Maybe they have it right.

  • BrandStrategyGuru

    Clearly the ensemble award gives Argo an advantage, but I would wait for the DGA to see for sure.
    People are comparing this to when Little Miss Sunshine won PGA & SAG and was nominated without a director nod. So on paper it may look similar but in reality I don’t think it is.
    Even fans of Argo would agree that it’s not the strongest ensemble when you compare it to the other nominees. The point is the SAG members vote for the movie they liked the most and not for the actual ensemble. So the fact that Argo didn’t win any acting awards and still won the ensemble means a lot. Lincoln has DDL as the rep for it. SLP has Jennifer Lawrence. Life of Pi will pick up a few tech awards. Zero Dark Thirty will take Screenplay and sound. And for a lot of people, Argo is the choice for their favorite film of the year. A crowd pleaser.
    That said, the SAG is not a preferential vote. The PGA is, but there are only 500 of them in the acdemy). So if enough people give Lincoln number 1 and number 2 votes, it can still win.
    I would say that at the moment it’s a tight race, but still open.
    But the only possible winners are Lincoln and Argo. The DGA may (or may not) clarigy things. We’ll wait and see.

  • phantom

    I don’t think the conclusion should be that Lincoln is out…I think the conclusion is that Silver Linings Playbook is out. It is THE crowdpleaser of the season yet it failed to win the Comedy Golden Globe, the PGA and the SAG Ensemble, and though this year stats are clearly less useful than usually, it’s worth mentioning that no comedy/musical contender could afford all that and then still win the BP Oscar. Having said that, I am painfully aware that the Academy loved Silver Linings Playbook considerably MORE than any other organization, so I know there is a chance that LOVE will translate into more Oscars than expected (or deserved).

  • comedywontwin

    Lots and lots of actresses lost SAG after winning Globe but then they went to win the Oscar especially if it is drama not ROM-COMEDY. SAG is always crap in predicting best actress for the Oscar, like last year Streep lost SAG but Oscar voters were smatter and crowned her the Oscar because she carried the movie not like Davis who basically wasn’t the center of the story.
    Comedy won’t win.

  • Elton

    I’m pretty much sure “Lincoln” will lose WGA.

  • Zach

    Call me crazy, but Argo winning this actually makes me think it’s MORE likely to be this year’s Apollo 13. If it had not won anything tonight, nobody would have thought anything wrong with it. No one can possibly think Argo was the best ensemble. Apart from Arkin, Goodman, and Cranston, the rest of the characters were cyphers.

    This just makes me think they’re voting en masse to spite the Academy. But will the Academy be different? Is the more overlap between the individual guilds in different fields (SAG, PGA) than there is between the Academy and any one guild? Of course Argo has swept the guilds so far, indicating across-the-board support, so who’s to say the Academy doesn’t feel the same?

    Ben Affleck speaking on behalf of the cast made it obvious that this was a Best Picture award, not a Best Ensemble award. Affleck certainly didn’t win this award on his acting skills. But SAG voters probably saw his name and couldn’t resist.

    The only hope for Lincoln or any other movie is that enough time passes between now and the cutoff date for Oscar voting that the Argo fever subsides and the Academy comes to its senses. Clearly the Academy directors don’t favor Argo, for whatever their worth.

    If I were a guild member and an Academy member who liked but did not love Argo, I might vote for Argo to win the guild award, to spite the Academy for snubbing Affleck. But would I vote for Argo again for the Best Picture Oscar? How spiteful are voters feeling? Or do they really love the movie that much? And if so, why and how was Affleck snubbed? It seems more likely that the votes are RETALIATORY than reflective of a strong inherent preference for Argo.

    As a Lincoln fan, I’d rather see Lincoln take Best Picture and Affleck win Director; I would have even called that fair, since Argo, like Reds, is a directorial triumph and it would be a way of rewarding Affleck without saying that Argo is a better film than Lincoln or every other nominee. Plus, that way, Kathleen Kennedy would win. 🙂 Instead, Best Director is ripe for a surprise, though Spielberg and Lee remain the obvious, deserving frontrunners.

    On the other hand, I think SLP is dead!

    And Lincoln is no longer the DDL show! But Homeland is once again just the Claire Danes show. 🙁

  • Yvette

    ARGO!!! Really? This is making me really resent the Affleck pity party more and more…
    It was a well-made little caper of a film.
    Bit in a year with Lincoln, ZD30, Pi and Beasts…films with some balls and real aesthetics?
    Then again, it’s Clooney – and he has somehow become more powerful than guys like Spielberg, Eastwood….
    If I have to sit through another Affleck love fest……..
    I’ll say it again: Argo is not Reds!!!
    I mean, is Clooney that powerful and beloved?
    I don’t get it. I mean, I’m rooting for Lincoln to score big at the Oscars, but if it lost to ZD30 or Lee or Beasts…I’d get it and respect that.
    But Argo?
    Please no..

  • Brian

    Yes, I think SLP could be down for the count. It is coming down to Argo vs. Lincoln, and Lincoln seems to be down 8 points with only 17 seconds left.

  • Candy

    Argo wasn’t supposed to win best picture but now it’s going to win best picture. Why? Because Ben Affleck was unfairly snubbed and people feel bad for him. Especially his peers. They’re all going to vote for Argo so they can see Ben go up on stage to accept. Also Jennifer Lawrence winning is a huge surprise because I thought Jessica Chastain was going to win. Lawrence deserved and I’m happy for her.

  • If the DGA and WGA goes to LINCOLN as is generally expected, I would agree the race is on, even if ARGO is the leader. But LINCOLN would still have a decent shot. The LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE example is a very good one.

  • unlikely hood

    I guess I deserve that minor insult based on my poor forecasting. Uh, yes, like everyone on the planet with a high school diploma, I know where Rio is. I was joking about Affleck loyalty.

    At this point I will have to defer to you. Ang Lee for Director it is!

  • Alper

    @ Winston

    agree with you 🙂 She is so perfect.

  • Hawkeye

    My goodness, SAG hasn’t f’d up this bad since they gave Best Ensemble to Slumdog over Doubt (and Frost/Nixon). I’d have to agree that the only way this would have happened was with SAG using it as their Best Picture award (which also explains Slumdog). Inglourious Basterds, The King’s Speech, and The Help actually deserved their wins, so they weren’t necessarily Best Picture picks (especially for IB, which was part of a year ruled by The Hurt Locker, and The Help, which was part of the year ruled by The Artist).

    As I said earlier, just really embarrassing, especially to pass over such great casts as Les Mis and Lincoln for one as forgettable as Argo.

  • Jay

    SO happy for Argo; after the Golden Globes and the Producers’ Guild its status as frontrunner is officially cemented. But I still can’t understand all the love for Jennifer Lawrence. If she wins the Oscar (history suggests she has a 50% chance: see last year) it’ll be a big mistake. Jessica Chastain or Emmanulle Riva should win.

  • Patrick

    Anyone else feel like this Argo sweep is a big “fuck you” to the Academy? If so, how do you think the Academy will react now? Will they say, “you guys are right, fuck us, we pick Argo”, or will they say, “fuck you back!”

    The change in the Oscar ballot deadlines were the Academy’s way of saying “we think for ourselves.” So now, Argo’s sweep is just asking for the Academy to prove that they do indeed think for themselves.

    So strangely enough, Affleck’s snub was the best thing to ever happen to Argo, in terms of the precursors. But now, Argo’s precursor sweep might just be the best thing to ever happen to Lincoln at the Oscars.

  • Zach

    If there was some concerted effort on the part of the Academy directors branch to spay and neuter Argo, then snubbing Ben Affleck is exploding in their faces. I’d prefer they just nominated him and then this race would have played out more fairly and more realistically. Affleck might have won the Oscar for directing, but the film might not have swept the guilds and taken Best Picture with it.

  • comedywontwin

    What’s funny, some people still think that Argo may lose the Oscar or DGA…I mean seriously? sometimes wishful thinking is sickening…Argo got DGA in the bag….walk in the park.

  • Mel

    SAG is strange. It is a huge voting body of union members. I know SAG members who vote and NONE, ZERO of them have acted professionally in a while and when they did it was bit parts in single episodes of bad TV shows. I’m still shocked they did not pick the actor’s actor and award Chastain over a kid who has had a stroll to everything in Hollywood for a role with zero gravitas or importance.

  • yvette

    ‘@nelson…..what makes you think anyone is settling for a lesser film? Just because the film you like doesn’t win does not make them mediocre films. Sure that may be your opinion that they are settling, but you can’t say everyone thinks they way you do. Maybe they have it right….’

    with all due respect,
    They do not have it right. They have it Clooney, the Harvey of the Hollywood elite.
    It’s not about not having your favorite film win, and I don’t what Nelson’s favorite film is…
    I think Lincoln is the best….but I also believe ZD30, Beasts, Pi and Amour are worthy films to beat it….
    But Argo is not in the same atmosphere as those film – those films were the kind of films that you marvel at, are moved by…
    Argo, it was a crowd-pleaser. It was well-made…
    In another year it would be a contender…. maybe…but not this year.

  • Winston

    I never thought SLP had a shot at best picture. I loved it but it’s an odd type of movie. It looks like Lincoln or Argo.

  • Zach

    Patrick, I hope you’re right.

    This year more than ever the Academy seemed to think itself–but it’s hard to say. Argo was snubbed for Best Director and arguably for Art Direction, but got the rest of the nominations it expected.

    Silver Linings was much more popular with the Academy than with the Globes or Guilds, but what does that tell us? That Harvey Weinstein focused his energy on Academy members, at the expense of the Guilds? (The SAG snubbed Waltz and Django too, but the Academy included them.)

    Why would there be more overlap between Guilds in different fields than between any one of the Guilds–or all of them–and the Academy? Is the Academy really going to say, Argo, fuck yourself?

  • Julian Walker


  • unlikely hood

    Formula to win Best Picture 2013 (not too late to get it into production if you act fast):

    Make well-made, patently non-offensive Hollywood-on-Hollywood historical film that begins with the letters “Ar.”

    “Arnold: From Mister Universe to Mastering the Maid”

  • gbocampo

    I still have this gut feeling that SLP will win the Oscar for Best Picture. This is the first time I’ve felt this. SLP has no major guild wins I know, but considering the fact that the academy has been very different this year, I can’t see them honoring Argo especially without that director nod.

    Let’s just conclude that Argo is not as loved by the Academy as we think it is but Argo is loved by the GUILDS. And because the Academy has been different this year, I can’t see them going with the flow.

  • Julian Walker


  • Felipe Scofield

    I am really hoping this is a “Braveheart” year.

  • unlikely hood,

    I knew it was a joke.
    It´s ok.

  • Zach

    @Mel – in the race between Hot Chick of the Moment and Actor’s Actor, they never pick the actor’s actor. Halle Berry beat Sissy Spacek, Renee Zellweger beat both Nicole Kidman and Julianne Moore (double-loser that night, 10 years ago), even Viola Davis (movie star of the moment) beat Meryl last year for a more “actorly” role/performance. They did side with Julie Christie over Marion Cotillard for the more “actorly,” less wow-worthy performance, but foreign-language performances curry little favor with the SAG.

  • Clearly the biggest winner of the night, and deservedly so, is BRYAN CRANSTON with two wins!

  • Jim

    @Yvette, you make my point exactly. Who are you to say they don’t have it right. I like you think there are many films worthy of winning, and I wouldn’t be hurt if any of them did, but for someone to say a film is lesser or they have it wrong is purely opinionated and absurd. This sounds like Social Network/Kings Speech all over again. LOL!

  • phantom

    Bryce Forestieri

    “SERIOUS QUESTION: Will Tony Kushner lose the Oscar to Chris Terrio?”

    No chance in hell. Well…I hope so anyway. And again, I think Argo had a fantastic screenplay, it’s not Terrio’s fault that he is up against arguably THE best screenplay of the last decade or so. Having said that, IF Life of Pi emerges on Oscar night, David Magee might shock.

    Winston / PaulH

    Like every SAG winner before her, Jennifer Lawrence is now officially the Oscar frontrunner, but let’s not pretend it’s a done deal. IF she wins BAFTA, now THEN it is definitely a done deal but if Chastain or Riva takes BAFTA (they loved Zero Dark Thirty and Amour A LOT more than Silver Linings Playbook), then it will be a nailbiter until Dujardin opens that envelope. In the last 10 years, the four times the SAG Best Actress winner didn’t win the Oscar, the BAFTA Best Actress winner did.

  • Brian

    I think Argo is bothering me because it is coming on the heels of Tinker Tailor, with 10 times the hype. Sigh. I wish that had gone somewhere. “What? Alfredson didn’t get a DGA nod? Confound it all, I guess it is my duty to see it win BP.” That is a conversation I wish happened last year.

  • Robert A.

    As Sasha pointed out on Twitter, Argo has now won on both a preferential ballot (PGA) and a weighted ballot (SAG). Most people were considering Argo to be about 4th in line for an Ensemble win, so the fact it won ensemble says a lot. And SAG also gave Ensemble to Slumdog Millionaire in 2008, so SAG’s ensemble award isn’t always about name recognition and the movie that has the biggest, flashiest, most “important” roles.

    Little Miss Sunshine never won PGA on a preferential ballot.

    I don’t think we can chalk up all this Argo success to just the Academy feeling bad about Affleck not getting nominated for director. It may have helped feed the Argo fire somewhat, but my guess is that even if Affleck had been nominated for director, we’d still see Argo winning PGA, at the very least.

  • Felipe Scofield

    And I must agree with some comments here.
    Enough with the “pity Affleck party”.

    Argo was not as bold nor as visionary as Pi or even Beasts!

    Again, I need to profess my love to Pi. Would love to see Ang finally having a best picture.

  • jim

    @yvette…sorry, I didn’t mean to come across as rude….I love all the films, including Argo. And that is just my opinion, as you have yours.

  • Brian

    I said 10 times the hype, but I meant 10 million.

  • Zach

    I know there are a lot of Argo fans, but in 10 to 20 years, which movie do you think most people on the street who don’t know/don’t remember would guess won Best Picture? Argo or Lincoln?

    I wasn’t old enough to follow the race at the time, but Braveheart seems like a typical Best Picture winner. Like Lincoln, though perhaps even more so, it seems like the film that was ‘winning all along.’ I think it’s no better than Apollo 13–and the most lasting film from that year is probably Toy Story, frankly–but Braveheart had more of a cultural impact than Apollo 13 and moved more people. Ron Howard was criminally snubbed by the Academy, but Apollo 13 didn’t deserve the SAG. Perhaps the across-the-board, off-the-wall guild wins for Apollo 13 were in retaliation against the Academy for snubbing a popular actor-turned-director. Seeing the parallels here?

  • Robert

    Lawrence is great in SLP, but she is not considered a lock for the Oscar yet. Based on the nominations, I think the BAFTA is between Chastain and Riva, and after that winner, we will have a real race.

  • Danemychal

    How weird would it be for Lincoln to win Director, Actor, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor…and NOT BP? Voters would have to check themselves, wouldn’t they? I guess not because it would win not on the strength of first-place votes but on those crucial second place ones. That scenario could easily happen. Have to think Argo as front runner for BP & Editing only at the moment. WGA and Scripter should clear things up on Screenplay. But no one deserves an Oscar more than Kushner this year.

  • Pierre de Plume

    Funny how that very small group [director’s branch] is now probably kicking themselves for not nominating Affleck. By snubbing him, they’ve generated an enormous amount of hollywood sympathy and handed Argo the best picture oscar on a silver platter…..

    I think we’re rushing to judgment about Argo winning the SAG ensemble. There’s enough time for AMPAS voters to mull over what’s been behind Argo’s recent successes. Tonight’s win for Tommy Lee Jones is a sign of strength. The DGA and WGA are key indicators, now, and Lincoln is anything but DOA. Let’s not call the priest just yet.

  • phantom


    “even Viola Davis (movie star of the moment) beat Meryl last year for a more “actorly” role/performance. ”

    With all due respect, how is two-time Tony Award winning Juilliard alumna Viola Davis NOT an Actor’s Actor ?

  • Winston

    @Mel-With all due respect Lawrence had nothing handed to her. She started out at 14 with no connections. She did commercials. She appeared on Monk as the Tiger mascot. (If an aspiring actor ever needs an ego boost, look that up online). She did Medium and Cold Case. She was on the Bill Engvall show for three years. She started her career in indies like Poker House, Burning Plain and Winter’s Bone, winning major awards. For a while she could not get cast in a major film until X-Men. She then beat out every young actress in Hollywood for the Hunger Games. She is just a phenomenally talented actress and she earned her accolades.
    She will probably be back again with Serena next year.

  • Jerry Grant

    “I don’t think the conclusion should be that Lincoln is out…I think the conclusion is that Silver Linings Playbook is out. It is THE crowdpleaser of the season yet it failed to win the Comedy Golden Globe, the PGA and the SAG Ensemble, and though this year stats are clearly less useful than usually, it’s worth mentioning that no comedy/musical contender could afford all that and then still win the BP Oscar.”


  • Brilliant tweet I saw now:

    Steve Pond ‏@stevepond

    ‘Argo’ won PGA using preferential count, then SAG with almost 100,000 voters. How can it not be the consensus fave that the Oscars look for?

  • Julian Walker


  • PJ

    I don’t get this Argo love. I probably won’t hop on board the Argo train till the last minute especially considering the last time when there locks upon locks that ended up not being locks at all. But it’s nice to see Jennifer Lawrence cement her frontrunner status for Oscar.

  • Zach

    @phantom, that’s fair, and that one was a real stretch. But though my wording was inelegant, I guess what I was trying to say is that the SAG goes with the movie they love over the actor they love, and the actor they love over the actor they respect. In Viola Davis’s case, she was respectable AND popular AND in a movie the SAG loved. By comparison Meryl — the ultimate film actor’s actor, regardless of Viola’s impressive two Tonys — Meryl was, compared to Viola, the actor’s actor in that race.

  • Gareth Lindsay

    To all above people saying comedy actresses don’t win Oscar

    What about the following:-

    Cher (Moonstruck)

    Helen Hunt (As good as it gets)

    Gwyneth Paltrow (Shakespeare in love)

    All comedy movies with best actress winners!!!!!

  • mecid

    I don’t get why people think Lee will get BD Oscar. His film isn’t winning anything. But Lincoln at least winning actor and screenplay awards.

  • superkk

    viola davis: “the hot chick”. ive heard it all. buawhahaha. you people crack me up sometimes with your conspiracies on why someone wins for this and that. good god. could it actually be that lawrence was just a wee bit better? i think she was. doesnt have anything to do with her being “hot” or crusty old academy men having a hard on. every year its some excuse lol.

  • Winston

    Btw, what is an “actor’s actor”? Acting isn’t rocket science.

  • Mel

    Zach said: in the race between Hot Chick of the Moment and Actor’s Actor, they never pick the actor’s actor.

    Yeah, when I got to thinking that I bet the majority of SAG voters aren’t even working actors, they probably might want to vote for the “hot chick” or less classically trained option b/c it is like voting for themselves. Trying to make sense of it is so hard, but that is all I can imagine. And Argo, come on, directed by an actor, that had to have given it an edge…..I’m not putting a lot of stock in the SAG for when it comes to a much smaller and more elite voting body like the Oscars. But I guess we will see.

  • Brian

    I come to bury Liincoln, not to praise him. The noble Hollywood has told you that Lincoln was boring. If true, that is a grievous fault, and grievously has Lincoln answered it. Hollywood said Lincoln was boring, and Hollywood is honourable, for they are all honourable men and women.

  • Julian Walker


  • Zach

    I don’t get how Kushner could lose the Oscar, but I don’t see Affleck losing the DGA after all this.

    Unless the directors are universally opposed to him.

  • yvette

    I didn’t take what you said as rude at all….no worries.
    But damn, I just don’t think Argo is in the same league as the other films nominated. Not this year….
    There is a real sense that Affleck is riding that ‘snub’ a really long way. Spielberg has been snubbed more times that Affleck has made movies….and he never got this kind of sympathy and traction out of it…
    I like Argo too, but it’s not bold, daring, original, visionary….
    It’s just not.

  • Robert A.

    “Steve Pond ‏@stevepond

    ‘Argo’ won PGA using preferential count, then SAG with almost 100,000 voters. How can it not be the consensus fave that the Oscars look for?”



    I don’t think Lincoln is completely out of the BP hunt yet, frankly, but it feels like it’s moving closer and closer to life support.

  • Gabriel

    About Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence is the favorite. The SAG put her in the front line, but agree that she’s not a lock at all. Still, my money is on her. If she wins the BAFTA, then it’s a done deal.

  • ARGO appears to be a lock, unless its the second coming of APOLLO 13. DGA could change nothing or little. Three actors are locks: DDL, a well-deserved Lawrence & Hathaway. Jones is the front runner for Supporting Actor but who knows. Should be fun!

  • Brian

    Maybe directors are scared the hot people who work for them will turn on them and become greater than they are behind the camera. They preferred little Ronnie over Mel in 1995, waited until Eastwood was near dead. Affleck might have to wait until he grows a few chins.

  • Zach

    @superkk, it isn’t rocket science, but hey, I at least got the 4 acting winners right. Viola may not be the hot chick but she WAS the Prom Queen last year, even if Meryl was always the real one. Jennifer Lawrence? Definitely Prom Queen. Harvey is helping her. And I get the sense that many of them would love to vote for Chastain for having the best role on paper, but the part isn’t flashy enough in execution, so they pick Lawrence.

    @Winston, “actor’s actor” is code for: Not the Hottest Chick in the Category. But really, Julianne Moore is an actor’s actor. Halle Berry is first and foremost a movie star. Get the difference?

  • helios

    a well-deserved Lawrence

    I think you’re a bit insecure about this one lol

  • Mel

    Btw, what is an “actor’s actor”? Acting isn’t rocket science.

    Someone classically trained. Chastain is a Julliard graduate and comes from the stage…..hell is actually on Broadway at this moment. She studied and trained and has worked her ass off, she didn’t just beg her Mom to move with her to LA for pilot season when she was 14 and get a role on some cable sitcom that rolled into two Oscar nominations at the age of 22. Lawrence was my favorite two years ago. I thought her performance in Winter’s Bone was fucking brilliant. Silver Linings? I just don’t get it. I am completely baffled by what people are seeing in it and I’m a big fan of Jennifer Lawrence she just does not deserve this, not for that performance.

  • Zach


    “There is a real sense that Affleck is riding that ‘snub’ a really long way. Spielberg has been snubbed more times that Affleck has made movies….and he never got this kind of sympathy and traction out of it…
    I like Argo too, but it’s not bold, daring, original, visionary….
    It’s just not.”

    ^ This. I can’t add anything except that I hope these wins are a product of momentum that will die down once loving Argo becomes as objectionable as hating it.

  • yvette

    This could be the best thing to happen to Lincoln and ZD30….
    Those two films become the underdogs and the ‘Argo-is-overrated’ backlash begins.

  • Alper

    @ Phantom

    I think Jennifer Lawrence is very strong now. What do you think about Riva?

  • Lynne

    I’m disappointed Julianne Moore forgot to thank me during her speech!

  • Thomas

    I think SAG awards did a very good job at giving those that really did have the best performance of the year in their respective categories the award. At least for the motion picture portian of the awards show. I was a little surprised however, with Actor and Actress in TV comedy series going to 30 Rock. Even though, it is the final season of a funny show I would have thought the increasing popularity of Modern Family would have taken those awards as well. One thing is for sure Jennifer Lawrence is definately the front runner going to Oscar night, and as long as the movie continues to do well she will probably be the winner.

  • SAG Actor

    Little Miss Sunshine won the SAG Ensemble and the PGA. Just sayin’.

  • Winston

    @Phantom-There are no done deals until it’s over. But there is no way objectively that Chastain or Riva or Watts or whomever deserve it over Lawrence. I saw what I saw. A lot of critics groups agreed. The AACTA agreed. The SAG agreed. It’s all about certain people not wanting a 22 year old to win. (That would make her the second youngest in history and Maitlin was a special case). If she loses that the will be the reason.

  • I have given the matter further thought, and I think I reacted a bit too impulsively when ARGO won Ensemble.

    ARGO and LINCOLN are now is a dead heat, and depending on a few other guild reports it can still go either way.

    I do think SILVER LININGS is done. The SAG Ensemble was essential to it’s chances.

  • Mel

    No, if she loses it will be because her role had zero gravitas and it wasn’t even a lead role. She played a dumb girl chasing after a mentally ill man, trying to manipulate him and lie to him the whole time. She was a fucking soap opera character.

  • christiannnw

    Some people here need to take a chill pill. Or quaff a glass of something strong, but not while taking the chill pill please!

    I don’t quite get why everyone is in such a rush to declare on film a winner so prematurely, especially a film like “Argo”, whose achilles heel is so obvious (lack of a directing nomination) yet we’re willing to overlook it due to a few major wins in a relatively short period of time. These victories give “Argo” momentum and makes it look like the film that WILL win at this moment, but the real test it will face is whether or not it can sustain this momentum while Academy members are filling out their ballots.

    Also, if learned anything from this nominations date change it’s that being overly-presumptious about the certainty of something can be really dangerous; just ask Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow. If Academy members buy into the logic that “Argo” is an unstoppable frontrunner, they could be inclined to move it to a lower spot on their ballots (and I’m talking fifth or sixth, not second or third) since they may feel that other films can use the assist. This is where “Lincoln” or, God forbid, “Silver Linings Playbook” might squeak in as the default choice.

    But for now, “Argo” is in the lead. If it wins the DGA it will be even more so. But when February 24th comes and it’s lack of Directing nomination feels freshly egregious, and it’s lack of winning prospects in the techs outside of Editing and Score becomes apparent, I think that is when an other film could surge to the win.

  • christiannnw

    *”Also, if we” for the third paragraph. My bad!

  • Lynne

    I hope Anne Hathaway’s Oscar speech is 6 minutes long! I love the meltdowns people have over her on the internet! Her just breathing irritates people, love it. Queen Hathaway FTW!

  • Jim

    @yvette….Great..no worries…just talking shop.

    It is OK to differ on opinions. Argo is near the top of my list. I put it up there for the same reason you put what you like up there. ZDT was awesome, but I thought Beasts, SLP and Lincoln were good, but were lacking. I am just saying that opinions aren’t fact. And stating that the Academy is settling is very broad and generalizing, and based on nothing but opinion.

    I do agree with you that Argo is riding a wave from being snubbed. But I thought Argo was Best Picture material before nominations were out, who knows how things would have played out if Oscar nominations were due in at the previous time…we would be saying Argo is the frontrunner and probably can’t be caught.

    But as it stands, Lincoln has 12 nominations backing it, the race isn’t over by any means. Going to be fun!

  • helios

    It’s all about certain people not wanting a 22 year old to win. (That would make her the second youngest in history and Maitlin was a special case). If she loses that the will be the reason.

    What a delusional comment. The reason, as has been pointed out here by one of his fans, is that her (supporting) performance was nothing special. Of course you need to remove your head from her anus to see that.

  • Winston

    @Mel-So you have to be classically trained now to be an actor? I think they call that credentialism. All the training in the world is not a substitute for talent, and training can take many forms, including pratical experience. Really this idea of training is a crutch. A performance is a performance. Fact is that Lawrence worked hard at her craft and is an exceptionally talented actress. Chastain could go to Julliard a thousand years and she still will be the less talented. While she was in Juliard Lawrence was winning outstanding performance from the LA film critics at 16 for Poker House. While she was in Juliard Lawrence was winning an award for the Burning Plain from the Venice film festival. While she was in Juliard Lawrence was getting an Oscar nomination for Winter’s Bone. While she was in Julliard Lawrence was appearing in Like Crazy that won the grand prize at Sundance. So Chastain is an actor’s actor because she went to Julliard but Lawrence isn’t because she pulled off great performance after great performance while actually acting? That doesn’t make any sense. I think you just resent Lawrence’s achievements at such a young age. Nothing stopped Chastain from taking a similar course if she could.

  • JP

    As much as I loved Argo, this ensemble award is as embarrassing as Affleck’s snub. And this could actually hurt the poor Ben moment.

  • Andre

    though I disagree with Argo’s win, I’m not too mad over it… in fact, save for some choices, this year was such an embarrassment of riches that I don’t even care so much for the awards… as Sasha said before, “the films themselves are their own rewards”. =)

    so stop getting so mad, everyone!

    and, I have to say… with that face, those beautiful eyes, those amazing red lips and those perfect teeth, Anne Hathaway is a sexy cartoon come to life!!!

    so sad she’s married! Amanda Seyfried, you shall be mine someday!!!! =P

  • PJ

    I dont get the comments that think Lincoln still has a chance in this race? Did we all forget the PGA yesterday?

  • Winston

    @helios-Yes nothing special except in the opinion of the SAG voters. And the AACTA voters the day before. Can’t even imagine how she won so many critic’s prizes and even got an Oscar nomination.
    I’d say her being 22 is very significant factor as to why this is even a race and why some people seem so butthurt by her winning. Too bad.

  • Brad

    The one thing that people may be forgetting is that Argo has some of the greatest working character actors in it – something SAG voters notice. SAG also has many, many TV actors, and Argo has some powerhouse TV actors. Victor Grber, John Goodman, Alan Arkin, and Bryan Cranston have had long careers and have worked with everyone. Kyle Chandler, along with Tate Donovan, Goodman, Arkin, and Garber, have had much success in TV. Add to that up and comers, Chris Messina, and Scoot mcNairy, the familiar faces of Clea DuVall, Bob Gunton, and Zelko Ivanek and the Starpower of Ben Affleck……This is not anything like Slumdog – a cast of unknowns.

    And, to be quite frank, it is truly an ensemble piece, much like The Help last year. Where Lincoln and Les Mis, and even Silver Linings (great Ensembles in their own right, but have become more about the individual performances of rady Lewis, Jackman and Hathaway, and Lawrence), Argo is a true ensemble piece in the sense that its not carried by star power. This is a win for the character actor – the “oh I’ve seen that guy in another movie” kind of actors.

    Although not my favorite movie of the year, Congrats to Argo on their deserved win for Best Ensemble.

  • Mel

    Winston, you are just being ridiculous. Don’t ask what an “actor’s actor” is if you aren’t looking for the answer. P.S. Chastain is 36 years old next month, she wasn’t in Juilliard while Lawrence was doing shit except maybe sitting in grade school.

  • Reno

    Winston, great great rebuttal! Simply put, Chastain’s Julliard training was never evident in ZD30.

    Forgot to give a shoutout to other hottie, WAY TO GO ANNE HATHAWAY!!!

  • Andre

    also, is anyone else sad that “Mad Men” stopped its winning streak after what was (in my opinion) its best season yet??

  • Brad

    EDIT –

    Where Lincoln, and Les Mis, and even Silver Linings have become about singling out certain performances, Argo is a true ensemble piece…

  • Disney17

    “I dont get the comments that think Lincoln still has a chance in this race? Did we all forget the PGA yesterday?” Seems as though you have forgotten that Affleck is not nominated for best director at the Oscars. That was huge! That was the Academy sending Benny boy a message.

  • efe

    @Andre I agree. Season 5 was so underrated. It was hell of a lot better than Season 2 or Season 4 and people treat it like it ended MM’s legacy.

  • helios

    She’s got Weinstein on her side which is probably the only reason she is in this position in the first place. What is more intriguing is that you seem knowledgeable enough to write her autobiography. I’m so f.cking tired of these fangirls/boys ruining everything that might resemble a discussion with their blind support. This happens everywhere…

  • Mel

    also, is anyone else sad that “Mad Men” stopped its winning streak after what was (in my opinion) its best season yet??

    I know! I feel like the contract squabbles between Matthew Wiener and AMC that forced the nearly two year absence of Mad Men really harmed its roll and the public’s fascination waned. Homeland became the new obsession. Season 5 was outstanding though and I can NOT wait until April.

  • Reno

    @Mel, Winston was being sarcastic with the “while she was in Julliard, Lawrence was this and that” because it has become tiresome how people keep on invoking Chastain’s Julliard training.

  • Mohammed

    The Lincoln supporters are realy losing it. You can shout as long as you like in the woods that Lincoln is the greatest thing since sliced bread (calling it a Masterpiece and all), but clearly a sea of people out there don’t agree. Appart from DDL who is always great, the film is the usual Spielberg product; Nothing challenging.

    The man doesn’t want to touch controversy, something the modernization of Lincoln is a clear proof of ( the man was as racist as his contemporaries).

  • KT

    The race for Best Picture is OVER!!! ARGO has won the weighted SAG ensemble ballot AND more importantly the preferential ballot (PGA Award — 100% predictor of Best Picture since its preferential ballot was installed in 2010–Little Miss Sunshine took place before that).


    ***1. BEST DIRECTOR: This is a SHITFEST!!! NO ONE will know anything, even after Ben Affleck wins the DGA Award next weekend. Will it be Spielberg?? I don’t think he can win without LINCOLN winning Best Picture. He’s won before, and the Academy will not give him a third Oscar while others go under-recognized or unrecognized at all. DO NOT COUNT OUT DAVID O. RUSSELL!! Huge Actors-branch support without Ben Affleck nominated, and 7 acting nominations in his last two films. Ang Lee is looming, of course–a brilliant director-driven film–and he too may have a sympathy vote from Brokeback. AND Haneke can darkhorse himself to a win, the auteur from abroad.

    2. BEST ACTRESS: A Jennifer Lawrence win is not yet guaranteed. Watch to see who wins BAFTA, which I don’t think Lawrence can win. If it is Jessica Chastain, she can come back to win the Oscar (a la Meryl Streep, Tilda Swinton, Marion Cotillard). If it is Emmanuelle Riva, well then the Oscar will be a nail-biter. THIS WILL BE VERY VERY CLOSE. I’d like to see Chastain take it, but Emmanuelle Riva winning would be an amazing moment and quite an incredible birthday present.

    3. BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: VERY LIKELY Tommy Lee Jones. But up in the air, since Christoph Waltz won the Globe and Phillip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice. SAG is the best indicator, but Waltz wasn’t nominated. Watch to see who wins BAFTA, though De Niro isn’t nominated there. But even if Tommy Lee Jones doesn’t win BAFTA and Waltz takes it, I slightly favor Jones. Waltz won for another Tarantino role only three years ago–voters will think same old same old. Waltz also doesn’t have a filmography to match some of the other nominees. De Niro has been very inconsistent over last 20 years, which I think hurts him. Hoffman is in a movie with no passion behind it. And Arkin, well, maybe he could win riding Argo-love, but that’s not as likely as Tommy Lee Jones winning after many solid performances between Fugitive and Lincoln.

    4. BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: In an ideal world, Tony Kushner would have this sewn up. Beautiful script, took many years to write, wonderful Pulitzer-Prize worthy achievement. But Argo winning Best Picture means it will have to carry other categories. Winning screenplay seems very likely. Silver Linings Playbook is also a major contender. Watch for WGA for some indication, though that lineup doesn’t completely match this one.

    5. BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Very tight between Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, and Amour. Moonrise Kingdom COULD spoil. I’m leaning more toward Amour. Think Zero Dark Thirty controversy will prevent it from winning, as that controversy most directly stems from the script itself. Django is hot too, but love for Tarantino may be too strong to let him go home empty-handed.


  • JP

    Brad, You pointed some interesting things… But you mention star power… For a moment I thought the SAG had gone to Beasts of the Southern Wild. Those great TV actors are not the fact that carried Argo. What did was and Will likely be Affleck for the rest of the season. Want more star power than that? They are repairing Affleck over and over. They dont feel the need to repair Kathleen Kennedy… And Gandhi over E.T… Is, well, much bigger than Argo. Lincoln is not ensemble piece? Poor James Spader, Hal Halbrook, David Strathairn, Michael Stuhlbarg, John Hawkes. What about the only film nominated for all 4 acting oscars in more than 3 decades? Tôo individual? Even Les Mis… Acting was so great.

  • JJ

    I get why Argo won ensemble. Looking at that cast up close and personal (yes, at the awards show, which I just got home from), it is a large and random sampling of journeymen actors and actresses. People like Clea DuVall and Rory Cochrane and John Goodman – they’ve all been working for years- same with Affleck – without major awards or attention. And they have a low media presence, which makes them seem more humble. Another thing – all those actors WORKED together on screen through a lot of the movie. Not apart. So there’s that true ensemble feel.

    Honestly, I’m shocked SLP didn’t win. But I think Lawrence can and should win – she gave so much more on screen than Chastain did. And I’m SO over the Daniel Day Lewis and Anne Hathaway guaranteed wins. YAWN.

    Hmmm. My guess right now – gut feeling – is: Lincoln best picture, Spielberg best director, DDL best actor, Jennifer Lawrence best actress, Anne Hathaway best supporting and Robert DeNiro best supporting. I think Argo has peaked. The win tonight felt like the end of the road.

  • Mel

    Yes, I imagine it is tiresome when people keep invoking someone’s seriousness, hard work and dedication to become he best they can at their chosen profession. Again, if Winston did not want to hear it, don’t ask what an actor’s actor is and then cry like a baby. Doesn’t make her better or give her more talent it just means she dedicated her life to training and refining her craft. She found it important. She takes it seriously. Tis all. You fanboys can seriously continue to go whack it to stills of JL from Silver Linings and stop embarrassing yourselves.

  • Brian

    I can abide people finding Lincoln boring. I may not understand it, I may think something is being lost in translation, but I am fine with it. But this tearing down of Lincoln the person is too much. The film didn’t portray him as a 21st-century whitewashing, and if upset it failed to portray him as racist as slave-owners, that is probably because your grasp of history is off. The film portrayed a man who had no firm grasp of freed slaves role in his country, yet a desire to see slavery ended. That is about what the record of the historical man shows.

  • Mel

    When people say Chastain didn’t give as much as Lawrence, they mean she didn’t act like a dumb, melodramatic, stereotypical bitch. Her performance was far too daring for many men to applaud. Maya isn’t the girl who fucks.

  • Todd

    The In Memoriam segment misspelled the names of both Michael Clarke Duncan and Susan Tyrrell — Oscar nominees both. For shame! If you did enough research to discover that they died, how can you possibly misspell their names? At least “In Memoriam” was spelled correctly. [Sigh].

  • Well, I don´t understand people stil trying deny that Argo is the frontrunner.
    Argo won dozen awards, CC Awards, Golden Globe Drama and Director, PGA, SAG Emsemble.
    And will win (does anybody can be so fool to deny? Oh, sure, some will…) DGA.
    Is aRGO an Oscar Winner? Not yet.
    We´ll know it in February. But it´s walking day after day, step by step, to victory!
    It´s an unpredictable year, an unpredictable year because Academy went crazy nominating Russel and that travesty Benh Zeitlin (and his unbearable stupid movie) over Affleck and Bigelow.
    And it seems to me so much people are forgetting that ARGO WAS THE FRONTRUNNER BEFORE ALL THIS SHIT.
    So stop this booooring thing “Poor Affleck”.
    If a second movie could be fighting against Argo, it should be “Life of Pi”. Not “Lincoln”… It´s a good movie, nothing but this. It´s not a masterpiece, it´s not the best of Spielberg.
    “Argo” is going to win. Accept this. It´s a great movie. It´s not Rocky, Braveheart, Gladiator ou Crash.
    Move on!
    Go ahead!

    I must sleep.
    Whit all my respect, ARGO FUCK YOURSELF!

  • KT

    Why has the title of this thread changed??? I’m pretty sure the BIG NEWS is ARGO WINNING SAG ENSEMBLE. Yes, Lincoln won two awards. BUT the Oscar race for Best Picture is OVER.

  • Daveyloow

    Argo may not be overrated but it sure is over-awarded. In a season of excellent movies, I think Argo has already gotten too many awards.

    Argo is one film I watched that I liked but had no desire to watch again. But nothing would be gained for another viewing. No mystery in the film whatsover.

  • Goodvibe61

    This result is just amazing to me. When I look at all these films up for Best Picture, or SAG ensemble, I felt the cast of Argo was the one that had the least chance to win.

    Having watched the film twice now, I just didn’t feel the gravitas from any particular performance. I kept thinking of how interchangeable so many of the roles could be played by so many different performers. It just feels so “competent” in every way. From Affleck’s role all the way down to the lesser roles I just felt there was very little meat on the bones of those roles, and the actors did a uniformly fine job and that was about it. I’m still pretty shocked that Mr. Arkin got nominated, it’s basically a walk on role, the only nomination that surprised me more was Jacki Weaver, and none of the characters left an indelible impression on me even after that second viewing. I will love to hear what many of the actors have to say about the performances in this film, and what they felt made it stand out from either Lincoln or ZDT.

    It really makes me feel that the SAG ensemble award goes to the MOVIE the actors liked the best, and not necessarily the acting ensemble. They’re spreading the wealth around. They loved Lewis and Jones individually, they BOTH win the SAG award for the best performance by an actor, but the film doesn’t win the ensemble? Really? It seems crazy.

    And I’m gobsmacked, just really surprised, about Lawrence. I adore her. I just don’t think that movie works in any way. It rings utterly false to me. Clearly I’m just missing the boat on this. I don’t even think she’s cast correctly for this performance. I don’t buy it, not any of it, that she’d ever be the slightest bit interested in Cooper in that situation, that she says she hates football one moment, and then starts reciting obscure NFL records an hour later, it all rings so unbelievable, that big “Oscar moment” in the diner, the movie drove me crazy via the phoniness of it all. Oh well; I never got As Good As it Gets either, I guess sometimes it happens that way. I still keep thinking the Academy would give it to ANY of the other 4 nominees, who I felt were superior. Evidently not, we’ll see.

    I guess it continues to be a good run if you’re a Spielberg hater, despite the multiple wins for the film.

  • Mel

    Argo is well made. It is fun. It captures that moment in time extremely well. It isn’t the most challenging film and it is probably the single least moving/emotional picture of the entire field. It’s TKS of 2012, which probably means it will win. It’s better than TKS though and definitely more fun. Worse films have won. Lincoln will be remembered as a classic forever though. We underestimate hoe much people love Lincoln. Look at the box office on it! No one was expecting that, I assure you.

  • lily

    so, is spielberg the frontrunner for BD without the movie winning BP? that’s the only scenario i can see at the moment, which is bizarre. but lincoln does seem like their second choice- with DDL AND TLJ it clearly has support from the actors as well

    and is that going to change anything when people are voting? will argo win just picture and editing? and lincoln take director, screenplay, actor and supporting actor? that’s nuts

  • Helen

    What is with all the rude comments aimed at Jennifer Lawrence? Based on some of the comments, it seems to stem from the fact that she’s gaining so much success at such a young age and that she’s “unpolished.” If so, you should be ashamed. The girl is incredibly talented, and the apparent jealousy from some is revolting.

  • KT

    I think the problem is the PREFERENTIAL BALLOT. This system will NEVER EVER reward a film with baggage or controversy. Such films as Silence of the Lambs, Midnight Cowboy, The Deer Hunter, The Departed even–would NEVER have won Best Picture this way. Argo is the antithesis to these films, as many of you argue.

    YES, I know Argo has also won SAG’s weighted ballot—but that may indicate a larger issue with the movie/entertainment industry when it comes to awards: IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO STEP BACK AND OBJECTIVELY JUDGE THE QUALITY OF ART. Politics, campaigning, who’s hot/who’s not, the desire to be on the winning team—THESE AWARDS DO NOT JUDGE QUALITY, BUT RATHER WHO HAS THE INDUSTRY GOODWILL AT THIS PARTICULAR MOMENT. Please remember that.

  • Aaron A

    I cannot gush enough with love for Lincoln. It is easily the best film I’ve seen this year. I’ve seen it 3 times in the theater and I never see a movie that many times this enthusiastically. I would love nothing more than for this to win Best Picture.


    We all know that Argo will win. Those who are trying to quell any notion that it’s over with are just kidding themselves. Hollywood loves it when Hollywood portrays Hollywood in heroic fashion. I mean, these awards are mainly about patting themselves on the back and boy howdy are they patting themselves on the back with this love for Argo.

    I haven’t seen Argo. I do want to see it; i’m sure it’s a wonderful movie. But I’m bummed that Lincoln doesn’t have a shot anymore.

    People keep citing the best director snub as reason that Argo is not as strong a BP candidate as everyone thinks, but we must remember that we have had BP categories with more than 5 for just a couple years now, so this means that rules could very well be broken this year.

    I like Ben Affleck and I am happy for how well he’s doing, but I almost resent this movie if it will win Best Picture for any other reason other than that it was the best film of the year. And by the way it sounds by a lot of you on this site, it’s not. In the end, what should matter most to me is that Lincoln is my Best Picture of the year and I will treasure it for as long as I live.

    I appreciate all of the pro-Lincoln commenters that try to make us feel better that maybe Lincoln might have a shot, but I’m no longer convinced that it does. Ultimately we will find out on Oscar night.

    Oh, and one more thing… to those of you who found Lincoln “boring”, I find you as hard to understand as a teenager who decides to get his pecker pierced.

  • Daveylow

    All this because Ben Affleck was snubbed for an Oscar director nomination? Really, this is absurd. Please Oscar voters rewatch the films nominated before you vote.

  • Greg

    Congratulations to all the winners tonight. Lincoln and Argo basically walked away as BP leaders. Both films now have 2 major Guild awards on their side.

  • Daveylow

    @Mel – I don’t agree. I don’t think Argo is better than The King’s Speech at all. And if anything, The King’s Speech’s strength is in its acting. Can’t say that about Argo.

  • Brad

    JP –

    I think you are completely underestimating the SAG voters. This is not about repairing Affleck. Argo is a well acted film that not only has the actors I previously mentioned, but it also gave them credit at the SAG awards.

    for Lincoln, the only actors eligible to win were Day Lewis, Field, Jones, Strathairn, Gordon Levitt, Holbrook, and Spader. You mention Stuhlbarg and Hawkes, and add to that Lee Pace, Gloria Reuben, Stepen McKinley Henderson, Joseph Cross, Jackie Earle Haley, Jared Harris, S. Epatha Merkerson, etc….. But none of them were eligible. The majority of the acting ensemble, the people that help make this movie so great, weren’t able to get an award.

    I do agree that Silver Linings and Les Mis are great examples of A great ensemble. I was just pointing out that campaign-wise, Les Mis has become about Hathawy and Jackman and Siver Linings has really been about Lawrence.

    And, if you do the research, the last movie to win Best Picture with a nominee in all four acting categories was From Here to Eternity in 1953.

    As far as the ET over Ghandi, Kennedy never winning (which I do think she deserves at least one Oscar), righting the previous wrongs….. That’s for Oscar to take care of, not SAG.

  • Andre

    to me, the biggest tragedy of this awards season, as of this week, is that I’ve FINALLY got myself an avatar and put my own best looking photo (IMO) on it and, despite all the talk about good looking avatar pictures on this site, NO ONE has complimented me on mine so far! c’mon people, I’m still getting over a traumatic breakup! I’ll take compliments even if I have to fish for them! =P

    in all seriousness, though, I know the tone and rhetoric here has been quite hostile recently around here but, as a peaceful (mostly – I recall ONE angry and shamefully rude post back in ’08 for which I still feel bad) poster here, can I be the “kumbaya” guy (as I tried to be back in the “Social Network”/”King’s Speech” aftermath) and remind everyone of the AMAZING slate of films we got this year? Oscar nominated or not? Holy Motors, Rust and Bone, Central Park Five, Arbitrage, Compliance, Cloud Atlas (my favourite of the year, probably)… these are just a few of the films that were not even on Oscar’s radar this year, and weren’t they lovely?

    I know passions and tempers run high this time of the year, but one thing that has kept me coming back to this site – and, most importantly, this comments section – is the deep love we all feel for films. let’s remind ourselves that, even if we don’t love the same films, we still DO SHARE a love of cinema in general. and that is why we are all here talking to each other. people from all parts of the world who will probably never meet each other having passionate – though most of the times, sadly, not cordial – discussions about our times’ most eminent artform.

    forgive me if you disagree, but it is in THIS point where the true power of cinema lies: its potential to engage all peoples and cultures of this world. and not upon whom its elites decide to place its golden statues. =)

    even if there were no Oscars, I’d still want to have this space to discuss movies with you all. that is the TRUE prize. for me, and for all of us.

  • Daveylow

    Brad wrote: “And, to be quite frank, it is truly an ensemble piece, much like The Help last year. Where Lincoln and Les Mis, and even Silver Linings (great Ensembles in their own right, but have become more about the individual performances of rady Lewis, Jackman and Hathaway, and Lawrence), Argo is a true ensemble piece in the sense that its not carried by star power. This is a win for the character actor – the “oh I’ve seen that guy in another movie” kind of actors.”

    I don’t see the logic in this at all. Four of the five films nominated had amazing cast. Argo had performances that you forgot after you left the theater.

  • Dustin

    This is all one big FU to the Academy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Argo goes completely shut out on Oscar night.

  • Greg

    “Fabinho Flapp / January 27, 2013

    Well, I don´t understand people stil trying deny that Argo is the frontrunner.”

    If it is the front runner, then it is a rather weak and vulnerable front runner. Lets pretend it won for Best Picture. The next question would be: what else does it win? The Academy has a habit of checking all the boxes.

  • Brian

    I was never a hater of King’s Speech in that scorched earth war that took place, but it had it’s flaws. Is Argo a better film? Well, it was more enjoyable. I think I shall remember King’s Speech longer if only because of the acting from the 3.

    My problem with Argo is not that it is bad. It is that it is forgettable fluff. It literally has nothing going for it besides being well-made. It is an enigma to me. We aren’t talking terrible, we are talking meaningless. I could see Crash coming. Even as I hoped beyond hope that Capote or Munich would surprise, or that Brokeback would hold on, I could understand what drove voters to Crash. It was the basest and crassest instincts to be sure, but it was discernible. I don’t know what Argo is. It is a well-made thriller. It doesn’t pull at your heart, it doesn’t appeal to your inner child, it doesn’t stimulate, it isn’t charming, it isn’t much of anything. Palatable to be sure, but I can’t understand it. This Oscar season makes me long for uggie.

  • daveinprogress

    I get what you’re saying, Andre. Nice sentiments. And nice pic too – but you probably want to hear that from a woman, not a bloke!Cheers.

  • Reichdome back with avengeance

    What raises serious doubt that argo will sweep and win big at oscar is the fact the sag is so split.

    Surely the fact the acting branch of the oscars still dominant amongst all members by far have involvement in the guilds, gave lincoln BOTH SUPPORTING ACTOR AND ACTOR

    And if oscar truly restore some sense of dignity in their occassion, some form of prestige rather than celebrity trash shallow crap reasoning,

    Then lincoln will win it is stil:

    and reinforced by it big win in sag

    the lead frontrunner in the acting branch in oscar.

    The big problem for Argo is it has to overcome the total or near total lack of acting wins in sag yes it won ensemble but with only one oscar nomination in acting….it NEEDS to win the supportying actor oscar in order to win the best picture.

    What make it harder for it is it only has 7 oscar nominations- and that is low for a film that supposedly ‘the one to beat’ and it says a lot that it not the most nominated film.

    If an upset is justified and this year it most certainly is. but sometimes when there good reason to which this year is not! then sure the most nominated film should not win.

    Setting precedents of new things for sake of oscar doing something different is NOT the way to evolved their tradition.

    If argo does not win it best supporting actor amd ES[ECIALLY as you damn well hope it does not beat lincoln a script that was more ambitious, challenging than anything argo cooked up., but if the major oscar winner does not win either screenplay and picture or director and picture and either most technical noms it was nomnated for or direct5or, picture and supporting actor it not wiorth it weight in the win.

    Are oscar seriously gonna break with the one key asp[ect of their tradition i all for?? embraing the film that BOTH strong in acting, in technical mastery in written brilliancE? or have oscvar been asleep at the wheel for too long to embrace the msot nominated film? that earnt it wieght in gold in lincoln?

    So to understand
    Argo could well win best picture on the presses distroted logic without winning supporting actor, ruled out of director, and probably liikely without a screenplay win??

    Lincoln MUST win the writers guild at least the dga going speilebergs way is critical.

    But ti really would go to the hear of oscars credibility crisis if affleck wins the dga for a unambitious safe conservative film. when he not been nominated for oscar for best director?

    Itjust sheer lunacy what crap oscar are cooking up this year.

    When i say evolve or enhance tradition and break conservatist ideals i mean to embrace films of a genre that never won before
    like they should have with avatar and they most certainly should have with the dark knight or dark knight rises.

    I never have and nor do i condone the gross violations of the principles that establish oscar with far more public reaspect in tyhe old days then it gets today: that they would break there core guide for a film to win best picture without director nomination (regardless of the balloting p0rocess blah blah blah.

    The pga is not as accurate as it used to be the sag is.
    It probably would have helped if lincoln won the sag
    but then again it was dominant in key acting categories. and that would more than make up given it status in acting categories for bnot winning acting ensemble.

    Oscar are playing with fire. they will surely get themselves burned to ignore the first and superbly crafted precedent setting historic epic of americas most nation defining president the first time in hollywood history it been done to the length the film goes for.

    Good luck oscar if you keep going down this path your respect in the public eye will totaluly vanish and it serves you right. now you abandon your own protocol
    your own tradtion within the voting system. Complete, utter stupidity.

  • Mel

    Daveylow wrote: @Mel – I don’t agree. I don’t think Argo is better than The King’s Speech at all. And if anything, The King’s Speech’s strength is in its acting. Can’t say that about Argo.

    I guess to me it is better for watchability. I really enjoyed watching Argo and could watch it again and probably will watch it again. After TKS I had no desire to see it again. I liked it alright, but nothing made me want to see it again. Argo was more “fun” to me….it was pretty flawless, the only flaw I could find is that it had pretty much zero emotional impact. They could have worked that angle if they wanted and I am not sure but I think I even appreciate that they didn’t.

    P.S. Crying fanboys, saying JL does not deserve a Lead Actress Oscar for the supporting and stereotypical, unbelievable, soap opera caliber role of Tiffany is not hating on her, especially not when everyone massages your balls by admitting she is talented but that role is just NOT worthy. Hell, I was screaming for her to win for Winter’s Bone and she was even younger then. So please, save it.

  • Daveylow

    Winston writes: “The only reason people don’t want her to win is because she is 22, and the hopeful spoilers have shifted from Chastain, to Watts, to Riva, and on and on. If she loses the Oscar it will be a joke.”

    No, some people actually believe Chastain, Watts and especially Riva, gave better performances. I can’t believe Kate Winslet had to wait many years to win an Oscar and Lawrence will get an Oscar for making a few films?

  • christiannnw

    I feel like I have to come in here and write a brief rebuttal to commentary poking fun at Jessica Chastain’s Julliard training. As someone who has made a commitment to a craft by attending art school, I do get slightly annoyed when someone in my field achieves momentary recognition in the community by self-consciously cow-towing to popular tastes instead of creating impressionable work that is personally affective.

    While this may sound rather harsh, I believe Jennifer Lawrence has shoehorned herself into this type of artist, somebody who has garnered popular acclaim from the world at large due to her demonstrative (and chillily businessman-like) acumen in choosing roles that can garner her maximum recognizability. All of that has come at the expense of personal growth and maturity, and rewarding her for an acceptable portrayal of a thinly-written, “likable” character will probably convince her to coast on her laurels for the rest of her career. She hasn’t acquired the skill-set that enables versatility and thus career longevity, unlike Jessica Chastain, who has turned in so many varied performances in so little time that it puts many of her elders to shame. Chastain made a serious commitment to her craft, one that not only required many hours of practice at Julliard but also the subsequent professional struggles that develop personal fortitude and maturity; finally, at thirty-five years old, Chastain has WORKED her way onto a stage so many actors only ever dream of, and if the Academy were to reward Lawrence’s meteoric, calculated ascendancy over Chastain’s slow, toiling efforts, it would be a damn shame.

    And finally, why I think Chastain’s performance is Oscar-worthy: her insistent, impersonal control over the film’s proceedings, that, at the film’s conclusion, collapses into a moment of paralyzing doubt, a moment that can only occur following the conclusion of a prolonged period of stasis. It’s a hell of a cold performance, but one that I believe is entirely intentional, and Maya’s final moment of personal indecisiveness acutely reflects our nation’s future following the death of Osama Bin Laden. I mean, what other performance this dares to push the envelope as much as Chastain’s inadvertent suggestion that the United States would be better off if Osama Bin Laden remained an active worry of our collective conscious? Certainly not solow-sporting Tiffany.

  • Brian

    I have no horse in the race for actress, but I will say that it is amazing to me that the girl in Winter’s Bone was the same one in Hunger Games and SLP. One of these things is not like the other.

  • Daveylow

    Mel writes: “Argo was more “fun” to me….it was pretty flawless, the only flaw I could find is that it had pretty much zero emotional impact.”

    Why would you want to watch a film again that has zero emotional impact — which I do agree with you concerning Argo!

  • PaulH

    Winston, and other J-Law fans on here…haters gonna hate.

  • christiannnw

    *”what other performance this year dare” in the third paragraph. Gosh I gotta start proof reading.

  • PaulH

    And besides, Lawrence’s win is for a Philly film – SLP was filmed in parts of Philadelphia and Delaware County.

  • Andre

    hahahahah thanks dave. I have no problems taking compliments from guys. I’m quite flattered by them, in fact. the dudes from Ipanema here are better looking than most movie stars I’ve met, so when a guy tells me I look good, I do take it to heart.

    glad you liked what I had to say about the tone of the comments section, though. I’ve been following this site for at least 10 years, and even when I disagree with Sasha, Ryan, and many of the other commenters, I still try to keep a respectful atmosphere over the whole thing. I know I am about to go all pollyanna here, but I do think that this site does have more to give than simple analysis of the awards circuit. I hope Sasha and Ryan (both of whom have helped me through a particularly ROUGH time in my life, and whose help will never cease to move me) agree with me that, though this might have started as a blog upon which Sasha was allowed to post her opinions on, it slowly became a gathering point for us weird, film-school-big-heart-over-passionate weirdoes to get our kinks out. and, honestly… regardless of your love for Lincoln, Les Miz or SLP or anything else… IS THERE ANYWHERE ELSE you would rather be discussing these films other than here?

    threat. play nice, or I’ll post a shirtless photo of my buff but inversely appealingly pale physique!:)

    maybe this can elevate the discourse regarding oscar films AND make me feel like not such a waste of human space hahahahahah

    thank you all, and Ryan and Sasha, please delete and edit my posts to whatever extent you might feel content. disrespect is never my intent when I’m playing in someone else’s playroom. =)

  • Brad

    Daveylow – SAG is not the Star-lovers that the Golden Globes have been known to be. SAG tends to acknowledge the quality of the work, rather than the star power involved. Now, that’s not to say that Stars in a movie equals bad acting. Quite the contrary. Just remember, the majority of SAG voters are not A-List stars. They are the Bryan Cransotns, the Clea Duvalls, the Zelko Iavneks of the business. People who consistently work, who the average moviegoer may not know their name, but know their face. The SAG voters like to reward these kinds of casts – the kind of casts that really represent the members of SAG (The Help, The Full Monty, Sideways, Gosford Park, The Birdcage, Traffic).

    To say that the performances in Argo are not memorable is not exactly true. To say their faces are forgettable I can believe. But there are many great acting moments in the movie. No scenery chewing, no epic amounts of tears, but good, solid acting. Personally, i think Cranston gives an award worthy performance and would have been my choice for an individual nominee for this movie.

    And, to those of you who may be more cynical, SAG voting closed after the critics choice and golden globes were given out. Perhaps some voters just wanted to e part of the “in crowd” and be on the winning team come Oscar night

  • Mohammed

    @Bryan: Perhaps you should reconsider you taste of film ? It’s simple. Either all these critics and film professionals are wrong, or you are wrong.

    Lincoln is the usual hit-piece that Spielberg makes every other year and that gets nominated. But he isn’t the kind of filmmaker that challenges his audience. Haneke is. Farhadi is.

    I can understand that it hurts to see Lincoln lose again and again. But that’s the way of the game.

  • Brian

    Hey Mel, if I had to choose between rewatching Citizen Kane, 2001 Space Odyssey, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and Muppets Treasure Island, I’d choose Muppets without even thinking twice. It is (to me) easily more entertaining. But I’d hope there was more thought put into choosing the best of by the Academy. Even if I disagreed with the logic, I’d hope there was something else put in. Some emotional connection, some amazing acting, something that strikes a chord with the Academy beyond most entertaining, least divisive.

  • Andre

    also, dave:

    Raoul Silva: [caresses Bond] There’s always a first time…
    James Bond: [tied to a chair] What makes you think this is my first time?


  • phantom


    Fair enough.


    “I think Jennifer Lawrence is very strong now. What do you think about Riva?”

    I think Naomi Watts is unfortunately out and Lawrence is the frontrunner, but if Riva wins BAFTA it will be a nailbiter come Oscar night. If Chastain wins Bafta (they LOVED Zero Dark Thirty), then Riva is out and we are back to the Lawrence-Chastain duo. And ONLY if Lawrence wins Bafta, is the Best Actress race a ‘done deal’, until then we have a frontrunner (Lawrence), a close runner-up (Chastain) and a remakably strong dark horse (Riva).


    “But there is no way objectively that Chastain or Riva or Watts or whomever deserve it over Lawrence. I saw what I saw. A lot of critics groups agreed. The AACTA agreed. The SAG agreed. It’s all about certain people not wanting a 22 year old to win. (That would make her the second youngest in history and Maitlin was a special case). If she loses that the will be the reason.”

    Well, guess what, there IS a way considering film as any other art form couldn’t possibly be anything but subjective, and most certainly NEVER objective. And the “A lot of critics groups agreed. The AACTA agreed. The SAG agreed.” line is completely unnecessary because then I can just say about Chastain’s performance ” A lot of critics groups agreed (12 for Chastain, 12 for Lawrence). The HFPA agreed (8 of the last 10 Drama Actress winners and only 2 Comedy/Musical Actress winners went on to win the Oscar). The BFCA agreed (6 of the last 10 of their Best Actress winners won the Oscar, the exact number of the SAG/Oscar winners in the category in the last 10 years)” and in the end it wouldn’t change a thing : Lawrence has the edge because she won SAG and her film is a big hit with the Academy; Chastain is close behind but if she doesn’t win BAFTA, she is out; and Riva can only end up in the top2 if she wins BAFTA and her film wins at least 2 additional Oscars (Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film).

    Also worth taking into consideration : Chastain is still in the race despite nailing a though brilliant and complex but astonishingly NOT Academy-friendly (=not flashy, not sympathetic) role in THE most controversial BP-contender in recent years, meanwhile Lawrence is the frontrunner in Best Actress (!) as the scenestealing supporting ‘wife’ character in THE crowdpleaser of the season backed by Oscar-magician Harvey Weinstein. The fact that despite all this, this category hasn’t been a clean sweep – and make no mistake, it hasn’t – is a surprise and accomplishment already.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Lawrence was phenomenal in Silver Linings Playbook (and I didn’t even like the film), I just don’t think she belongs in the lead race. I would have had no problem with her sweeping in supporting or winning lead for Winter’s Bone or getting a lead nod for The Hunger Games, my sole problem is that her supporting part in an arguably overrated film secured her frontrunner-status in LEAD actress. My two cents.

  • Brian

    Muhammed, if Argo is what is topping Spielberg, there is no reason to bring up his inability to challenge his audience as a negative. Obviously that would be a dead letter.

  • christiannnw

    And I also should say (because my post above does seem awfully mean-spirited) that I think Jennifer Lawrence is a natural acting talent, and that I wish she would take the time to personally develop her craft rather than choosing certain roles just to increase her popularity. What happened to the raw, unpretentious Ree Dolly from “Winter’s Bone”, an Oscar-worthy debut if there ever was one, and one that arguably deserved the statue (Annette Bening and Michelle Williams were equally deserving). I’m afraid that an Oscar win at such a young age will discourage her from broadening her acting horizons and instead encourage her to stick to what Hollywood approves of; this reeks of Gwyneth Paltrow and Reese Witherspoon!

  • Winston

    @Mel-You are accusing everyone else of being a fanboy yet you seem absolutely devastated by Chastain losing. Look I like Chastain but why did it take her until her mid 30s to emerge? You can rationalize her “working on her craft” all you want. I’m sorry but if she is so talented then why didn’t she go out and prove it 15 years ago? Because she is a true student of her craft? Come on. If you have the talent and the guts you kick the door down instead of waiting in the wings.
    Chastain is now a respected actress in Hollywood. Take solace in that.

  • daveinprogress

    SAG’S ‘Outstanding Performance by a Cast’ category has always bemused me. I have always seen it as ensemble acting – an intersecting of many performers within scenes and action; not just the leading players strutting their stuff; but pure ensemble work, as often seen more in theatre or tv sitcoms and dramas; where players bounce off each other and as a group contribute to the end product. Looking back at SAG’s winners, films like The Full Monty (a group of ordinary fellers forming a stripping act); Gosford Park (upstairs/downstairs with a plethora of amazing character actors together); Little Miss Sunshine (a dysfunctional family road movie) – these are the best examples to my way of thinking of ensemble casts. There are no leads in these movies. So too with The Help.

    But then you get the films with multiple storylines – Crash, Traffic and Inglorious Basterds. And films they nomniated but didn’t win were Bobby, The Hours that were made up of disparate stories and groupings of actors. There were impressively large casts but they didn’t all intersect or work as a group. They were part of something bigger and bolder; but they too impressed SAG – are they size queens? Do they think that bigger is better? The King’s Speech had 3 main characters; a couple of true supporting players, and a host of bit parts but hardly ensemble work. That, they liked. No Country they liked. They like what they like.

    I think that the award means different things to different people each season. It is no different to the other award bodies. Best Picture Oscar, Best Production (PGA), Best Drama, Best Comedy/Musical (how idiotic is this grouping still?)

    I’m not convinced that the SAG cast award is the equivalent to Best Picture, but it seems to be evolving that way, by and large. The spin doctors with the millions of bucks in advertising are further diluting the appraisal of this artistic form. Or maybe it is what award shows have always been flippantly branded ‘Back slapping exercises’. They are rife with biases and favourites.

    We seek our own meaning and validation from THEIR choices, rather than just being passers by or observers to their hoopla – we take great offence if Argo is seen as a better cast than the musical maestros of Les Miz; or the British luvvies in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel or the elegance of Spielberg/Kushner’s performers in Lincoln.

    Another commenter observed that the other 4 casts were all superior – possibly, but evidently that is not how the SAG members voted overall. There are arguments to be had for all the 5 – doesn’t make any of them better or worse – just unrewarded by that group.

  • Roberto

    This is a dissapointment. Argo cast over Lincol’s? Even SLP and Les Mis were much better!

  • Brad

    Many people keeps referencing Affleck’s snub at the Oscars, and while I understand what people are saying, you cannot compare it to the years with five best pictures. In years with 5 Picture and 5 Director, a lack of Director nomination would be very detrimental to a film’s chances.

    Since the expansion to 10, or 5-10 nominees, we have not had a year with more than five potential nominees for best director.

    2009 – Cameron, Bigelow, Tarantino were definite, with Reitman, and Daniels as strong possibilities. All five were nominated

    2010 – Fincher and Hooper were definite, with Aranofsky, Russell, Nolan, and The Coens as possibilities. Fincher, Hooper, Aranofsky and Russell were nominated at both, while Nolan got DGA nod, the Coens got AMPAS

    2011 – Scorsese, Hazanavicius, and Payne were locks, with Malick, and Allen as strong possibilities, Taylor, Fincher, Miller and Daldry as possibilities. The locks and strong possibilities were nominated at AMPAS. Fincher took Malik’s spot at DGA.

    In 2012, we had an embarrassment of riches as far as films are concerned and any of their directors could have been nominated: Spielberg, Affleck, Bigelow, Hooper, Ang Lee, Zeitlin, Haneke, Russell, P.T. Anderson, Wes Anderson, Tarantino, and possibly to a lesser extent, past winners such as Mendes, Zemeckis, and past nominees such as Madden and Nolan and helmer of past best picture nominee, Wright. That’s 16 directors. In theory, the DGA and the Oscars could have had completely different nominees.

    Because the number of Picture and Directing slots are not the same, in a year with such a large number of great, award worthy films, someone was bound to get snubbed. I think Affleck’s snub was less about the academy’s lack of support for Argo and more about making sure the director’s passion choices (Zeitlin, Haneke, and to some extent, Russell) made it in and people figuring someone else would vote for Affleck. Everyone, including academy members, seemed genuinely shocked by the omission of Affleck’s name from the list.

    Quickly, to some other people’s points:

    The Little Miss Sunshine Comparison is a stretch. Sunshine was a light, quirky comedy that would never have won against the “lets give Scorsese his overdue Oscar” win of The Departed.

    Apollo 13 is probably the best example of how Argo could still lose, but the are a few differences. Apollo 13 did not win the Golden Globe for Drama. And, by this point in the race, another director had won a major award ( Gibson won the Globe).

    I think Argo is now officially the front runner for the Oscar. although not my choice for Best Picture, i would not be completely upset with an Argo win (a sentiment I feel is very prevalent in Hollywood).

  • Brian

    And I wish critics would not be mentioned once you get beyond a certain threshold of being non-divisive. Because critics voting are much like anyone else voting as a bloc, full of limitations and quirks. And not all critics are equal, so because someone in Albuquerque liked one film and not another doesn’t mean his vote is what makes that movie better than the other. And critics aren’t the barometers for whether a film is good or not, they can only state their case, and perhaps give one form to draw out their own opinions. This isn’t a right or wrong with critics lined up against all who should disagree on Argo.

  • KT

    Christian–I really enjoyed reading your post on Jessica Chastain. I have great amount of respect for her, and have had similar experience in how hard it is to get noticed in Hollywood, even if you have connections. I see much of my own journey in her, weirdly.

    I would LOVE to see Jessica Chastain win. I met her after a performance of The Heiress last week and she is soooo nice. She was hugging everyone who waited (it was soooo cold!!) and was tremendously generous of her time–an absolute pleasure (and the sign of a new actress). I absolutely love her and hope she stays this way. If she doesn’t win this year and Zero Dark Thirty is too hot to carry her to a win (which it may be, sadly), she’ll have plenty of opportunities in the future.

  • Brad

    Davinprogress –

    Great post. I completely agree – that’s very similar to the point I was trying to make earlier.

  • Mel

    First: christiannw, very wonderful analysis. I dare anyone to come up with anything a fraction as compelling in the case for JL’s performance.

    Second: daveylow Why would you want to watch a film again that has zero emotional impact — which I do agree with you concerning Argo!

    I just mean as mindless fun. I don’t only enjoy movies that move me and challenge me, I like my fluff too. I enjoyed the music, tension and aesthetic of Argo. I’d watch it again in that way. I don’t think it belongs as a BP winner and will be disappointed if it is, but far less than if SLP were to take it. That would sicken me. That film is just a damn mess.

  • daveinprogress

    Yes Brad, it took me so long to write mine, that by the time i posted it, and went back to read all before me, i saw you were saying very similar things.
    Cheers! 🙂

  • phantom


    “It’s all about certain people not wanting a 22 year old to win. (That would make her the second youngest in history and Maitlin was a special case). If she loses that the will be the reason.”

    Come on, Winston, it’s time to get real. So Lawrence’s performance is so universally/academically proven as THE best that there is simply no way that anyone could possibly consider anyone else’s BETTER unless they imdb-d her age and decided that they will discriminate against her because of her youth ? You do know that all this is ridiculously subjective, right ? And you do know that the ‘hot YOUNG babe’ of the category almost always wins the Best Actress Oscar, at least in recent years, so being young(er) in THAT category is actually an advantage ?

    1997 – Helen Hunt vs. Judi Dench
    1998 – Gwyneth Paltrow vs. Cate Blanchett (Young top2)
    1999 – Hilary Swank vs. Annette Bening
    2000 – Julia Roberts vs. Ellen Burstyn
    2001 – Halle Berry vs. Sissy Spacek vs. Judi Dench
    2002 – Nicole Kidman vs. Renée Zellweger vs. Julianne Moore (Youngish top3)
    2003 – Charlize Theron vs. Diane Keaton
    2004 – Hilary Swank vs. Annette Bening vs. Imelda Staunton
    2005 – Reese Witherspoon vs. Felicity Huffman
    2006 – Helen Mirren vs. Meryl Streep vs. Judi Dench(ONLY veteran top3 in recent years)
    2007 – Marion Cotillard vs. Julie Christie
    2008 – Kate Winslet vs. Meryl Streep
    2009 – Sandra Bullock vs. Meryl Streep (rare veteran top2)
    2010 – Natalie Portman vs. Annette Bening
    2011 – Meryl Streep vs. Viola Davis (rare veteran top2)

    I guess in a way the Lawrence/Chastain battle does remind me a little of the 1998 race : twentysomething Gwyneth Paltrow winning for a Weinstein crowdpleaser for a co-lead role at best, meanwhile the few years older classically trained Cate Blanchett who had to carry her film, ends up in second place. The two HUGE differences that I loved Shakespeare in Love and to this day consider it a remarkably well-made film in every aspect AND Paltrow’s performance (though IMO not as strong as Blanchett’s) was iconic, worthy and a true co-lead, meanwhile I honestly don’t think Silver Linings Playbook has anything to offer with the exception of a few good/great performances AND I also don’t think the Tiffany role would have ended up in the lead race, had an average looking, middle-aged relative unknown been cast and nailed the role, and for the record, based on the book THAT would have been the faithful casting.

  • Mel

    You are accusing everyone else of being a fanboy yet you seem absolutely devastated by Chastain losing.

    I am not devastated, I was initially surprised until I thought about, most SAG members are banking on or dreaming of a break like Lawrence got. If I was an immature fanboy like you, I’d just keep calling you guys “haters” simply b/c you don’t think Chastain’s performance was as good as Lawrence’s. Your assertion that Chastain must not be that good b/c it took her so long to emerge is laughable. Good GOD do you understand Hollywood at all? Forget it. You don’t. Why don’t you come up with something half as astute as christian’s case for Chastain but do it for Lawrence. You won’t. You can’t. All you can do is flap that anyone who doesn’t think Lawrence deserves it is a “hater” and blow a bunch of smoke. I mean, I’d even accept “she gives me boners” as a better and more discussion worthy argument than, “You are just a hater critics like her!”

  • Brian

    My poor Cate. Will she ever get her Actress Oscar? Besides prying it from Gwyneth’s cold dead hands I mean.

  • The J Viewer


    Missed the entire event but hopefully with the power of the internet, anything is possible to enjoy LATER (I guess). (**Please post the links if any, if that’s literally not a trouble.**)

    Anyway, I was lucky and had it all correct re the theatrical motion pictures (all categories).

    Congrats to all the winners in all categories from big-screen through to stunt ensembles, as well as “Life Achievement” Award. And, perhaps, we need to reconsider Argo once again following this very ENSEMBLE win.

    Looking forward to Sasha’s thoughts. (And then I’ll be sending my AD Oscar predictions. Thanks….)

  • Sammy

    Lawrence’s win opens the door to Emmanuelle Riva at the oscars. Her biggest opponent was Chastain and she lost the SAG. If Riva wins the BAFTA, it is all over.

  • Sammy

    Lincoln needs a DGA win to stay in competition with Argo. But that is unlikely especially losing all the big awards up until now. Spielberg’s chances of getting a third oscar is diminishing.

  • mecid

    Mohammed, you are very ignorant. From Spielberg’s 7 noms which is undeserved?

    I think 7 noms are even less than he deserves.

  • Watermelons

    “I can’t believe Kate Winslet had to wait many years to win an Oscar”

    This is the first sensible thing I’ve read all day!!

  • Mel

    I really love Watermelons (Awards Daily Comments).

  • Terometer

    I feel sorry for team Lincoln. Oh, they dreamed a dream…haha.

  • Still wondering why some people hating a particular good movie just because it won buzz on some awards. It’s just awards. It’s all about personal choices and momentum. Geez.

    I’m on #TeamArgo though.

  • Bball_Jake

    NOOO! Sag got it wrong by awarding Argo the Best Ensemble of the year. I still think TDKR has the best ensemble of the year! And of the ones nominated, Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln and Les Mis obviously have the best ensembles. If Argo wins Best Picture, which it probably will because the Academy is never very surprising in their picks, then 2012 will go down as a horrible year of Oscar for me.

  • PiersD.

    What if all the sudden Argo f*** fest is a reaction (backlash) to Affleck’s directing snub by the Academy? What if the Academy will realise this, maybe even on a subconscious level and “not” vote for Argo since they don’t like to be told what to do?! One can hope.
    I did like Argo, but compared to Zero Dark Thirty and specially Lincoln it is not deserving of a best picture award. And that was never a best cast than Lincoln.

  • dinasztie

    I’m very happy for Jennifer, fine with DDL and TLJ and so-so about Hathaway (I didn’t like her performance, but I liked her speech).

    I suppose these SAG winners will turn out to be the Oscar winners.

    I was more satisfied with the tv winners but that belongs to a different blog.

  • brian_CA

    Argo for best ensemble?
    WTF, are you kidding me?

    The actors played themselves for the most part. Total crap.

    SLP should’ve won best ensemble by a landslide.

  • The J Viewer

    (My original second comment – sort of a response to one of Sammy’s comments about Riva’s possible Oscar win – I believe has been abducted by extraterrestrials already and so will never return……….) xD

    (My second comment) As for Best Actress Oscar, for now I believe it’s the race between Lawrence and Madame Riva.

    I need to rethink Argo (I picked it for SAG Ensemble win – correctly – but it’s a different game for the Oscar, not to mention Lincoln’s most Oscar noms, etc.) and see how it fits in the entire Oscar race picture. Argo’s back again as the frontrunner in BP though. (Some might say it’s never been gone….)

  • Candy

    If Jennifer Lawrence wins an Oscar right now, her career isn’t going to end like most actresses’ have after they won an Oscar. She has 3 more Hunger Games and XMen movies for the next 5 years at least. She also has movie offers piling up at her door step, a Dior endorsement contract, and millions from her big blockbuster films. I’m sure we don’t have to worry about her career failing anytime soon.

  • The J Viewer

    *Spotted Candy’s comment*

    I do agree with Candy about Lawrence re big-name franchises.

    Plus, the obvious: she’s (still) young, pretty and, more importantly, another talented one as well. Win or not, I believe she’s here to stay. (I consider myself a brand new good fan, but I am not saying from a fan-boy point of view at all – I will have to see Hunger Games yet, to begin with.)

    *Signed out for today*

  • Gage Creed


    Actually 2006 was Helen Mirren vs Helen Mirren vs Helen Mirren

  • Tony

    This is a strange year for me, because I’m not “in love” with any of the BP nominees, nor do I “hate” any of them. I will be a very relaxed viewer on Oscar night.

    While the race does seem to be “Argo” slightly ahead of “Lincoln,” “SLP” isn’t that far behind them. AMPAS clearly liked “SLP,” as evidenced by nominations in all 8 of the major categories. Dr. Faustus, er Harvey Weinstein, knows how to score with AMPAS. And, voters get an “SLP” reminder every week with box office news. “SLP” was #3 at the B.O. last weekend. It is #3 this weekend. It probably will be #3 next weekend.

  • Zooey

    Day-Lewis will beat the more deserving Phoenix.
    Anne wins for sure.
    Tommy Lee Jones wins.
    And then Lawrence loses to Riva.

  • Watermelons

    Love (The Heart, The Soul) ya too!

  • Watermelons

    that’s to Mel, of course!

  • Sammy

    Argo’s late surge has made the Best Director race wide open to the likes of Haneke and Lee especially if Spielberg loses DGA which obviously is not a long shot.

  • Koleś

    As much as I would like to see Riva win, “Amour” most likely will swipe at least one (foreign) or maybe even two (o. screenplay). Third Oscar to a movie with only 5 nods (and far from being a frontrunner) in major categories is just too much. SLP is going to bomb at the Oscars, but with 8 nods it’s bound to win at least one and that’s Jennifer Lawrence. I have no idea who wins director, but I’m pretty sure O’Russell is out of the race, same goes for Zeitlin. So it’s Haneke vs. Lee vs. Spielberg. Haneke gets foreign and possibly screenplay, so he already has plenty. Lee can only win if he gets some love from the DGA, but that’s not very likely to happen. So my guess is that Spielberg wins. Right now my predicts look like this.

    Picture – Argo
    Director – Spielberg
    Actor – Day-Lewis
    Actress – Lawrence
    S. Actor – Jones (still not sure about this one, but SAG helped him a lot)
    S. Actress – Hathaway
    O. Screenplay – Amour
    A. Screenplay – Argo
    Cinematography – Life of Pi
    Editing – Argo
    Art Direction – Les Miserables
    Costumes – Anna Karenina
    Make-up – Les Miserables
    Score – Life of Pi
    Song – Skyfall
    Sound Mixing – Skyfall
    Sound Editing – Skyfall
    Visual Effects – Life pf Pi
    Foreign – Amour

    Argo – 3
    Lincoln – 3
    Life of Pi – 3
    Les Miserables – 3
    Skyfall – 3
    Amour – 2
    SLP – 1
    Anna Karenina – 1
    Zero Dark Thirty – 0
    Django Unchained – 0
    Beasts of the Southern Wild – 0

    If the DGA and WGA goes Spielberg’s way, then “Lincoln” wins also Picture and Screenplay and “Argo” looses editing to “Zero Dark Thirty” ending up with no Oscars. We’ll see.

  • Koleś

    Best acceptance speech of the evening? Tommy Lee Jones or Kevin Costner, I can’t decide.

  • rufussondheim

    Christiannw wins comment of the day! Way to go!

    This is not a hard and fast rule, but it seems the most thoughtful people here like Chastain, and the poorly thought out comments generally favor Lawrence.

    I, of course, am the exception to the above rule.

  • rufussondheim

    Does anyone here want to read what is likely a very good book (since it’s written by Ron Rash) that is the source for one of the more high profile Oscar Bait 2013 movies that will star one of tonight’s four feature film acting winners?

    Seems I have a spare copy of “Serena” by Ron Rash for the Kindle (weird how things work out) and I can forward it to someone who wants to read it. If you want the copy, not sure exactly how I or Ryan will get it to you, but one of us will get it to you. (You see, Ryan has access to your e-mail, I do not)

  • Sonja

    Congratz to all the winners of SAG!

    J-Law’s now the youngest SAG winner! Harvey did it again. Like it or not, but she’s the frontrunner now.
    I doubt anyone can beat DDL and Hathaway. TLJ got a huge boost, but it’s not that secure at all. In that case maybe the BAFTA will tell.
    Although the category is full of previous winners, so one of them will win a second Oscar. How crazy is that?!

    I’m not sure if the BAFTA win for best actress is a game changer this year, even if Riva wins it (and she’s the most likely imo right now).
    Last year it was of course. If you’re playing a real person, a combo of Golden Globe+BAFTA can even overpower a BFCA+SAG combo. It happened three times now and I’m curious if it happens again.

  • When is the DGA?

    Wouldn’t it be nice if Ang Lee wins that, and suddenly everything becomes truly wide open for Picture / Director / Screenplay ?

    Locks seem DDL and TLJ for Lincoln, though I would pick other performances for those categories.

    Argo is a perfectly executed film, with a perfect script and a perfect cast. It never gets boring and never outsays its welcome.

    That being said, it was a wonderful year for the movies – foreigns and documentaries included – which will be hard to top. My favorite is Life of Pi, but I am OK with it just walking away with all those nominations, without a win. But I sure do hope it does a “Hugo” and takes over the techs (and, please, screenplay and director). But even it doesnt, everyone got thrown a bone this year, between the guild awards, the baftas, the globes, the critics and the academy.

    All except maybe “Tabu”, from my country, which I think could have been pushed for awards season but wasn’t.

    I too will, like Tony above, will be somewhat relaxed come Oscar night. Unless Lincoln sweeps, then I’ll turn into a raving bear and storm into Hollywood and paw everyone


  • david b.

    I know this likely doesn’t count but when Argo won for ensemble, I didn’t see the reaction of the crowd that I was expecting to see. It was not like their stunned for a good reason, it was just a bland reaction from the actors around. Remember, 2000+ actors are assigned for the nomination. For selecting the winners, 160,000+ “actors” are allowed to vote. Even MARIA SHARAPOVA, is a member of the SAG-AFTRA union. If I’m not wrong, the union was just merged on MARCH 2012.
    I predicted Argo so I wasn’t that surprised. I predicted 4/4 in films. I predicted Argo because of its international appeal. Remember, there are 160,000 members of the SAG-Aftra union around the WORLD, and some of the films released haven’t even opened on other territories that might be a factor why SLP or Lincoln lost. Les Mis is not everyone’s cup of tea but majority of people loved it while Argo, is consistently like all around. But it is still a surprise when Argo won mainly because it is not the strongest “ensemble” among the nominees.
    So my point exactly is that, let’s imagine that the 2000+ nominating committee, were the only allowed voters to choose the winners. And let’s say that the 2000+ actors are members of the Academy, would they still vote for ARGO? I don’t think so. If they were the only allowed voters, I think Argo would not win considering SLP’s popularity among the actors.

    I’m still not convinced about ARGO winning the Oscar and that’s only a gut feeling. The Academy is surprisingly very different this year, so I consider them not going with the flow. They chose good films to nominate and some of them might even think that it will be a fluke if they will just vote ARGO considering the fact that they nominated a lot of films that voting Argo would be such a waste of time on the nominations that they have worked hard for.

    This is a brave thing to say, but ARGO will not win the OSCAR. I don’t follow stats this year and I assume that it will not translate to BP.

    I’m not fan of any films but I still think that it’s Lincoln vs. SLP at the OSCARS.

  • PaulinJapan

    @phantom. You totally nailed it with your reading of the Best Actress race. Couldn’t agree more with your analysis. Also worth noting that SAG didn’t receive screeners of ZD30. Last year they got The Help but not Streeps movie, and we know what happened then.

  • Rodrigo JP

    Argo is one of the year’s best and surely deserved the SAG!

    My predictions:

    Picture – Argo
    Director – Spielberg
    Actor – Day-Lewis
    Actress – Lawrence
    S. Actor – Jones
    S. Actress – Hathaway

  • Vitamin168

    david b;
    ” I predicted Argo because of its international appeal.” What is its international appeal? Argo is having something 70 something international box office and many other best oscar film nominations have already topped that. Not to mention Life of Pi with a hefty 424 million international box office, that is an art house movie with a real international appeal.

  • Andrew

    Is the title of this thread serious? The biggest news is Argo for ensemble not Lincolns two awards. Your cheerleading for this film is embarassing guys

  • Karl

    What? Lawrence won? If she wins the Oscar will be one of the worst Oscar gave ever, like Reese Whiterspoon or Sandra Bullock.

    Please Academy, give the Oscar to Jessica Chastain, Emmanuelle Riva or Naomi Watts.

  • Kane

    Karl, I’m sorry to disagree with you but Lawrence doesn’t deserve to be named alongside Witherspoon or Bullock as mistakes. Witherspoon should’ve contended in supporting and Bullock shouldn’t have gotten further than a GG nod. Lawrence did some very fine work for someone of her age, exceptional even. Did she give the best female lead performance of the year? Probably not, I haven’t seen Amour to even make a call. But they could award worse people than her. I have a feeling when SLP comes out on DVD and I watch it again the 2nd time, I’ll be greatly rewarded. After seeing some of those clips last night of the ensemble, De Niro, Cooper and Lawrence I had forgotten how great the movie is.

  • david b.

    @ VITAMIN168

    We are talking about the SAG here. Life of Pi didn’t even feature an ensemble cast. would you nominate the tiger and the fish? It is a movie that is well told and visually brilliant and it featured a small cast. Not to mention that the story just revolved in a single person.

  • AD

    The only real disappointment was the win for Jennifer Lawrence This has nothing to do about her performance but has everything to do with Harvey’s push. She is a good actress but this performance is not an Oscar worthy one. I hope there are some surprises on Oscar night. It looks like Argo is in the lead to get Best Pic.
    PS: feel bad for the people sitting next to Jennifer Lawrence last night since she has pneumonia (and yes it is contagious). Between the two awards who knows how many people she got sick (she had the flu at the GG)

  • terri

    Really loved Argo so I am very pleased that it won. Surely Argo winning is the Big news of the weekend and not Lincoln winning two awards. Bias much?

  • True Finn

    Why is Argo not in bold font?

    Argo – 4 stars – Decent, but not great. But, this has been a year of mediocrity, and this is the most watchable mediocre movie of the year.
    Lincoln – 2.5 stars – Boring. Not engaging in any way. Cliched in terms of story telling and music. Tommy Lee Jones is the only stand out. I’d venture to say DDL won’t with the Oscar either.
    Life of Pi – 3 stars – Alright.. didn’t enjoy it much.
    Les Miserables – 4 stars – The most passionate movie of the year. A true epic. Good performances too. I am tempted to predict Hugh Jackman for the Oscar ahead of DDL.
    Django Unchained – 4 stars – My favorite movie of the year so far. The most fun to watch.

  • True Finn

    Best Actor: Hugh Jackman
    Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
    Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
    Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

  • Bob Burns

    Discussion of the relative meits of Lawrence and Chastain is like discussion of the relative merits of Argo and SLP…. meh vs meh.
    Why should we care if either wins?

  • JLaw!

    After reading some disparaging remarks about why Chastain hasn’t “made it” until her mid-30s while Lawrence is kicking doors down now and kicking ass as a true measure of Lawrence’s talent…I have to state the obvious.

    Studios are pushing for Lawrence and her career. She has turned into a commodity now with her hit blockbuster franchise coming up, and it will behoove the studios to reward her while the iron is hot. It’s like the Grace Kelly thing where she signed up for like five new movies before the Oscars and therefore had Hollywood studio support.

    She’s a studio’s dream. She has the hipster crowd who thinks its cool to like her and her irreverent attitude, she has the male demographic who just ogles over her (look at David O. Russell’s camera work in SLP), she has the tween vote (omg, Hunger Games is like the best book ever!), and she has the young adult vote (like, I have a mad crush on her as Mystique!). I think a lot of the critic groups are full of nerdy guys or pervy old men who are just lusting after her. As for SAG, well, let’s just say some of those bit actors probably fantasize about her and her meteoric rise, while some of the veterans think she’s a cute young thing and it’d be great to give her an award just for being herself.

    Too bad all this success comes with a premature Oscar nomination and critical acclaim.

  • JLaw’s estimation is revelatory! Great job!

    Lawrence does indeed look like the winner for nearly all these reasons, but we can all still dream of Riva, Watts or Chastain walking up to the podium!

  • Koleś


    “As for SAG, well, let’s just say some of those bit actors probably fantasize about her and her meteoric rise, while some of the veterans think she’s a cute young thing and it’d be great to give her an award just for being herself.”

    So what does that say about them awarding Daniel Day-Lewis? There was this guy from Wolverine who is cute and is singing, why didn’t they give it to him? Or Tommy Lee Jones for that matter? He’s just an old timer with a grumpy cat face. Why not award the ultra-cute Bardem?

    The way I see this, if you want to find a shit reason for some group awarding someone you don’t aprove of you’ll find it without any trouble. These guys are assholes, those guys are perves, “so called actors, what do they know” ect. So go ahead, keep digging this funny shit up. See how far you’ll get in changing reality with these funny facts that’s only purpose is to justify that ABOVE ALL YOU ARE RIGHT!!!

    Good luck, have a safe trip.

  • Chris

    Argo winning the SAG ensemble and PGA are the only sympathetic votes for Ben’s snub at the oscars. The Critics Chouce and Globes final ballots were out before the Oscar nods but these wins are very deserving.

    This will be a picture/director split year.

    Ang and Steven are not due at all. Spielberg has 2 oscars and ang has one. Drop it.

    Jen’s win makes her front runner and can easily win the BAFTA. Even if she loses, the movie will win an Oscar somewhere with all it’s support in nominations. She’s the best chance and the “it girl” right now. And she should have won for Winters Bone and we know how the Academy loves to make up for those awards.

    Also, if Anne and Jen win next month, maybe it’s fur their year they had in great films. Anne for Dark Knight and Les Mis and being the best thing about both films, and Jen for Hunger Games and SLP. Think about it.

  • Zach

    I agree with JLaw though. There IS a double standard when it comes to awarding actresses, whereas Actor and Supporting Actor almost always go to the strongest, richest performance. And certainly this year, it’s not hard to imagine voters recognizing the typical brilliance of Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones, but in the Best Actress category, they are stuck with Lawrence because she’s the only one with a fully fleshed-out character. I have a feeling many of them would actually prefer to award Chastain, based on her age, training, and slow-rise backstory, and the fact that her character on paper is the best one, but the role isn’t meaty enough, and now the movie is untouchable. One would hope that they are itching to award Naomi Watts, too, let alone Julianne Moore and Claire Danes, if they ever acquire the right film role.

    The sad thing is — and I know you’re not supposed to do this — that anyone could have played Lawrence’s role in SLP. Bradley Cooper to his credit had the more challenging role. 10 years ago Naomi Watts would have aced the role, and what the movie would have lost in tween cred it might have gained in emotional depth. Hell, even Chastain might have pulled it off; she seems to have the dramatic chops for it, and The Help proved she can do light comedy, but she just doesn’t have the look or appeal. Lawrence was good and she was certainly well suited for the part in terms of her looks, popularity, and sardonic personality, but it just isn’t a well written or very unique role that should be winning Oscars. She was so much more interesting and impressive in Winter’s Bone, and I’m sure she’ll go on to bigger and better projects in the future.

  • JLaw!


    How astute you are. Now we should use the scientific method to figure out how these things work as opposed to hypotheses and defenses of a decision based on supposition (no matter how close the person is to the industry) that…EVERYONE who talks about awards tend to use.

  • Bryce Forestieri

    I don’t mind being a contrarian. Otherwise this will be a borefest until Cannes.

    Assuming Argo wins the DGA and even the WGA, which I don’t think will happen but for the sake of theorizing, Current and possibly final prediction-desires hybrid

    Best Picture: LINCOLN
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg,LINCOLN
    Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN
    Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva, AMOUR
    Best S. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN
    Best S. Actress: Anne Hathaway, LES MIZ
    Best Original: Michael Haneke, AMOUR (alt: Quentin Tarantino, DJANGO UNCHAINED)
    Best Adapted: Tony Kushner, LINCOLN
    Best Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, LIFE OF PI
    Best Score: John Williams, LINCOLN
    Best Editing: William Goldenberg, ARGO
    Best Production Design: LINCOLN
    Best Costume Design: MIRROR MIRROR (alt: LINCOLN)
    Best Make-up: THE HOBBIT
    Best Sound E.: LIFE OF PI
    Best Sound M.: LIFE OF PI
    Best Visual Effects: LIFE OF PI
    Best Foreign Film: AMOUR
    Best Animated Film: FRANKENWEENIE (Alt: WRECK-IT RALPH)
    Best Documentary: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
    Best Song: SKYFALL (throw up a little in my mouth)

  • I know this likely doesn’t count but when Argo won for ensemble, I didn’t see the reaction of the crowd that I was expecting to see.

    My theory. Argo doesn’t feel like an overwhelming favorite. Argo did not win like this:
    55% Argo
    25% Lincoln
    15% SLP
    5% Other

    No, Argo won more like this:
    25% Argo
    24% Lincoln
    21% SLP
    20% Les Mis
    10% Marigold

    We didn’t see half the SAG crowd hoop and holler when Argo won because when Argo won 75% of the crowd were thinking, “oh, ok, but that’s not what I wanted.”

    What we are seeing, I think, is verification of what many of us have already sensed for weeks. In light of Best Director confusion, there’s a waffling at the top of the BP stack between 3 popular contenders running close beside one another. That’s where the preferential system edged Argo ahead with the PGA, but the actors seem less enthused thatn the producers guild and there are more far actors in the Academy than anybody else.

    There’s a phrase for a situation when two alternatives show nearly equal support: it might almost come down to a coin toss.

    The only thing we can say for 100% certain is the Ben Affleck is not winning an Oscar for Best Director.

  • Zach

    I like your predictions except that they may be optimistic, and also Anna Karenina will win Costumes. Not sure about Wreck-It Ralph vs. Frankenweenie, or those pesky sound categories.

    I just have to say:
    Argo won SAG — Ben Affleck is an actor
    Argo won PGA — Ben Affleck is a producer
    Argo won the Globe — Ben Affleck is a star
    Argo won the Critics Choice — Ben Affleck is a popular, likable star who was considered one of the Oscar frontrunners before the nominations
    Argo will win the DGA? — Ben Affleck is the director
    Argo will win the WGA?? — Ben Affleck didn’t write the film, but he has an Oscar for writing
    Argo will win multiple Oscars??? — It isn’t the best film nor the best in most categories for which it’s nominated. Does the Academy care about who Ben Affleck is??

    Ron Howard was a boy wunderkind everyone had grown up with on Happy Days, who went on to make comedy hits like Splash, but that didn’t make the Academy listen to the guilds and vote for Apollo 13 (a superior film to Argo and much more challenging) over a popular, epic film and star they preferred.

    Grasping at straws here. Does Lincoln have the juice to do what Braveheart did?

  • Koleś


    Sure, we could do that. We really could do a lot of things. Find out more about their favourite shampoos and see how that influences their picks. There is really a shitload of things that you can dig up to discredit the choice of any group for that matter. The question is – why? If the Critics are nor Critics anymore, if the guilds are just a bunch of people who don’t know jack shit about movies and if the Academy is just a bunch of 50-60 year old white men, then I have to ask you. Why bother? Why do you still comment on these awards? You know what movies you liked and didn’t, that’s your chocice. Why crap all over a group of people who don’t seem to share your opinion? Do you need them to award the movies you likes? Are you that insecure about your choices? Live and let live for fucks sake. Instead of being on a constant quest to undermine the reason for the decision of SAG, DGA, PGA or whatever do what a person who doesn’t seem to care about their opinion should do. Leave it be. Don’t like their choices? Fine, you know what movies you liked. Why care about the people, who don’t share your opinion. I guarantee that they sure as shit don’t care about yours.

  • Zach

    Ryan, I so agree with that theory that Argo can’t possibly be leading by that much. But to be fair, the SAG crowd wasn’t particularly excitable last night anyway. There was hardly a standing ovation for Daniel Day-Lewis. And as much as it confuses me to think that Argo could be an across-the-board industry favorite like ROTK, Slumdog, and Chicago, how has it won every televised award, even ones it plainly doesn’t deserve like SAG, if it’s not an overwhelming favorite? So the question then is not how strongly the guilds prefer Argo but how closely the Academy vote will resemble theirs.

  • Before everyone jumps over to the new article and topic of discussion (why Argo is winning everything) I just wanna say that

    Jennifer Lawrence winning last night was predictable and disappointing. JLaw! pounds the nail on the head that gets more and more lodged inside a reasonable brain: she’s winning because she’s the IT girl at the moment. And that pisses me right off.

    Here’s hoping Riva or Chastain pull the rug right under her and Harvey on Oscar night.

  • phantom

    At the risk of sounding remarkably cynical, what’s the source for this Lawrence-pneumonia story ? Because I’ve had pneumonia last year and when I wasn’t coughing my tonsils out I was lying in bed half dead with a horrible, barely existent version of my voice and she looked just fine to me, no sign of any sickness at all, definitely no sign of something as serious as pneumonia. Frankly, the moment I heard about this, my instant first thought was : classic Harvey. The brave little trooper attends the event then ‘ohmygod’ she even wins, gets the award from her acting legend co-star (who else ?) and then delivers a bland, completely uncharacteristic (=overly calculated and respectful), though still occasionally funny speech that once again reeks of Harvey who clearly felt the need to do some SNL-damage control and ordered her to tone it down and class it up. Again, I can’t blame her or anyone else for ‘playing the game’ and campaigning HARD for an Oscar, I’m just saying this was my impression. Whether it was the truth or not, now that we’ll never know. What we do know that Lawrence has been campaigning her ass off, so we can’t really pretend that she doesn’t want this bad, because she clearly does…and there is nothing wrong with contenders who publicly WANT it, it’s more annoying when they claim they don’t and it’s obvious they do (Mr. ‘awardsarethedevilbutiwillstillattendeveryceremonyifiamnominatedjustincase’ Joaquin Phoenix, whose performance I admired, his attitude ? Not that much.)

  • rufussondheim

    Ryan’s theory is unsubstantiated but probably correct. I think all of the top films are ridiculously close in terms of overall support. That Argo keeps winning could be a statistical curiosity just as easily as it is a runaway leader.

    I suspect the lack of enthusiasm is due to the fact that these poor Hollywood folks were all attending thier third awards ceremony in three weeks. As much as it sounds like fun to us, to them it must be horribly dull. Especially for the people who have to do this on an almost annual basis. I bet January is Meryl Streep’s least favorite year.

  • keifer

    AMPAS has a mind of its own.

    Argo has peaked, and there will be a knee-jerk reaction to put Spielberg in the spotlight again.

    Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. It has all the “King’s Speech” elements that AMPAS likes: historical sweep, perfect casting, screen adaptation from beloved biographies, technical savy, some good acting, and, most importantly, it is now the underdog.

    AMPAS likes to reward the underdog, even though the movie has made a zillion fucking dollars.

  • Jerry Grant

    Here’s the honest truth. Lincoln is the #1 most likely to win in the following categories:
    Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Supporting actor.

    How strange it is that it is also not in the lead to win Best Picture.

    I think Ryan is right (above) that the breakdown was probably (almost certainly) VERY close.

    Lincoln is certainly still in it.

  • rufussondheim

    Jerry Grant, now that you’ve given us the honest truth, I was wondering if you could give us the dishonest truth?

  • Winston

    A bunch of comments to respond to:
    @Phantom-This is subjective, but in that case you cannot tell me that Lawrence being 22 and also the lead in a major franchise is not a factor here. In fact it drives the hipster wannabes crazy. So now Riva is the great anti-Lawrence hopeful? I guess we should overlook that Lawrence just beat her head to head at the AACTAs. Lawrence simply outacted her peers, and without any of the standard Oscar trappings. Take it or leave it. People are certainly free to disagree. However instead people are acting like the very idea is inconceivable and are therefore trying to find other explanations that are delusional and insulting. Weinstein bribed everyone. Or voters are a bunch of dirty old men with sexual fantasies. (Why shouldn’t that also apply to Chastain who is very attractive?). The simplest explanation, that maybe Lawrence is a phenomenal actress, cannot possibly be true, right?
    @Mel-Name one major female acting talent that first emerged when she was in her mid 30s. Chastain is a good actress. But it seems she gets a lot of hype based on issues of pedigree.

  • Karl

    If Jennifer Lawrence wins the Oscar will be one of the worst Oscar gave ever, like Reese Whiterspoon or Sandra Bullock.

  • Winston

    Oh I missed one. @JLaw!-So studios have pushed Lawrence’s career Let’s see. She won outstanding performance from the LA film critics for Poker House. What studio was associated with that? Skipping ahead, she received her first Oscar nomination for Winter’s Bone. Again which studio pushed her forward? In fact in both cases these were dirt cheap indies that had no studio backing.
    So now we have theory No. 3-She is just some grand studio creation. Could she just be extremely talented? Nah. `
    If you have the talent you make your own breaks.

  • Mel

    Listen guys, JL is gonna win b/c, AACTA! Because, Winter’s Bone! Because, better! Yet nothing of substance in her role or performance…..just because. She’s winning because.

    We got your argument, Winston. If you aren’t gonna say anything new or different or meaningful, stop wasting bandwidth and comment space.

    The pneumonia claim last night took the fucking cake. Lie of fucking lies. Anyone who has had pneumonia or been close to someone with pneumonia knows it doesn’t just go away without a trace for special occasions. They know she isn’t the strongest, so they are cultivating the Oscar in all the old dirty ways. It is sad really, b/c Lawrence doesn’t need it. She’s so very young and has more Oscar bait out next year. But if they want to shoot her wad on this mess, cool. I guess her people would rather she be a Gwyneth instead of a Meryl.

  • phantom


    “Lawrence simply outacted her peers, and without any of the standard Oscar trappings (…) The simplest explanation, that maybe Lawrence is a phenomenal actress, cannot possibly be true, right?”

    See, you just simply don’t want to understand that no matter how many times you claim things like she ‘simply outacted her peers’ it will still remain your very subjective, very arguable personal opinion and not some kind of fact that should secure Jennifer Lawrence the Oscar. I don’t doubt for a second that she is a “phenomenal actress” with a long and bright future ahead of her and that still doesn’t mean I automatically have to consider her the best and most worthy Best Actress contender this year. And with all due respect “without any of the standard Oscar trappings” ? Are you kidding me with this ? Tiffany is a TEXTBOOK Best Actress performance – hot, likable, endearingly neurotic with a few VERY Academy-friendly flashy crazyscreamingcrying Oscar scenes. You know whose performance isn’t typical Oscar-bait ? Jessica Chastain’s, a tough, unlikable, no-nonsense, emotionally crippled female who has to convey emotions with silence and only a look or a muscle in her face. She doesn’t have the luxury of just losing it big time in a diner and with teary eyes fall into the arms of her big strong male love interest. You know who else don’t have those luxuries? Naomi Watts and Emmanuelle Riva. They had to deliver their performances from the neck up and were truly remarkable. All three of Lawrence’s closest ‘rivals’ delivered expertly executed, outstandingly difficult performances playing strikingly strong female characters, so no, I do not think Lawrence gave the best Lead Actress performance this year, first of all because I don’t consider Tiffany lead, and second because she nailed a complex performance that had the advantage of remarkably Oscar-friendly (=calculated) writing and execution, something Chastain, Watts and Riva didn’t have and in my opinion, that’s exactly why they ended up delivering considerably stronger and more memorable performances.

    P.S. If someone like Parker Posey or Amy Ryan had played Tiffany (the character in the novel is that type, not a 21 year old bombshell), I can guarantee you the actress in question wouldn’t have ended in the Lead race. Lawrence did because she is a huge movie star now and has Oscar-magician Weinstein in her corner who didn’t have any other viable Best Actress contenders this year. If he had Zero Dark Thirty, as well, I’m fairly certain he would have placed Lawrence in supporting so he can win both actress categories. Just a theory.

  • If we were at some kind of public event, I’d stand up and clap very loudly after hearing what phantom just said.

    Well said sir. Well said.

  • Winston

    @Phantom-Chatain played the woman who tracked down bin ladin. Watts played a woman in the aftermath of a tsunami. Riva played a woman struck by the ravages of old age. Heck, Cotillard played a woman tragically confined to a wheelchair. There is a lot more of the usual oscar bait in those roles that Tiffany in SLP. Lawrence even outacted Chastain in the Hunger Games. None of her rivals have the skill to do what she does. Sorry.

    But all of this misses the point. You are entitled to your opinion right or wrong. But so are the SAG voters, the AACTA voters, the voters from numerous critics groups and individual film critics. I think Lawrence delivered the best performance. I don’t think Chastian’s performance was any better than the role and the role was petty flat. The SAG voters shared my opinion. But rather than just admit that the numerous people and voters who disagree with you may have a valid point, instead we get nonsense and conspiracy theories. Apparently a lot of people that matter do not agree with you. Nor should they. If people can’t handle that then don’t watch the ceremony.

    Life is full of disappointments.

  • Winston

    Btw-Is it possible that Chastain didn’t have the “luxury” of expressing her emotions more forcefully because her role does not require the same degree of emotional range? Exactly. The rationzlizations are endless.

  • phantom


    “Chatain played the woman who tracked down bin ladin. Watts played a woman in the aftermath of a tsunami. Riva played a woman struck by the ravages of old age. Heck, Cotillard played a woman tragically confined to a wheelchair. There is a lot more of the usual oscar bait in those roles that Tiffany in SLP.”

    TRANSLATION : Female performances in two genre films and two foreign language films are MORE Oscar-bait than the uberlikable hottie in THE crowdpleaser (Sandra Bullock, Reese Witherspoon, Julia Roberts, Gwyneth Paltrow, Helen Hunt). Clearly you base that on the (non-existent) fact that there are so many Best Actress winners from historical thrillers, disaster films and foreign language films. Well, that theory won’t fly.

    “Lawrence even outacted Chastain in the Hunger Games. None of her rivals have the skill to do what she does. Sorry.”

    I didn’t know Chastain was in The Hunger Games, well, I guess you learn something new every day. And once again, “none of her rivals have the skill to do what she does” is ridiculously subjective and if you want to hear MY subjective response here it is : as talented as Lawrence is, her range and skill set doesn’t even come close to Chastain’s. Not for now at least.

    “You are entitled to your opinion right or wrong.”

    And here I thought an opinion is ONCE AGAIN subjective therefore cannot be flat out right OR wrong…

    “But so are the SAG voters, the AACTA voters, the voters from numerous critics groups and individual film critics.”

    With all due respect, have you EVER gave a fuck about AACTA before Lawrence won it ? I have a hard time understanding how that is an award worth bringing up over and over again in an Oscar-conversation. NBR is a stronger Oscar-predictor and that went to Chastain. The HFPA awarded Chastain, too, and in a much more competitive category (Lawrence run basically unopposed), and 8 of the last 10 Best Actress Oscar winners were GG Drama winners, and only 2 were GG Comedy winners. The BFCA awarded Chastain instead of Lawrence and their Oscar-track record in the category is identical with SAG (6 out of 10 in the last 10 years). Sure, Lawrence won SAG, THAT is why she is the frontrunner at the moment. My problem is that you are trying to convince everyone that she doesn’t have competition when she so clearly does. And I wouldn’t bring up critics groups, if I were you, Chastain has as many wins as Lawrence, only these groups awarded ZD30 Bp/Bd wins, as well and they weren’t that into Silver Linings Playbook.

    “I think Lawrence delivered the best performance. I don’t think Chastian’s performance was any better than the role and the role was petty flat.”

    That’s your take, my highly arguable personal opinion is that ‘Maya’ had more dimensions and layers than the four SLP principal characters combined. And for the record, I did love those four performances, even though I didn’t like the film.

    “But rather than just admit that the numerous people and voters who disagree with you may have a valid point, instead we get nonsense and conspiracy theories.”

    Are you even attempting to listen to what I’m telling you or you are just answering without reading my comments ? I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.

    “Apparently a lot of people that matter do not agree with you.”

    Big whoop. A lot of people that matter do not agree with YOU, if they did, Chastain wouldn’t have won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and 12 (!) critics awards. You do realize that I am ONLY trying to convince you to admit that Lawrence isn’t the only strong, viable BA contender this year, right ? Because that’s my sole problem with you. You act like Lawrence is alone in her category. She isn’t. Nor should she be. Not in a year like this.

  • phantom


    “Btw-Is it possible that Chastain didn’t have the “luxury” of expressing her emotions more forcefully because her role does not require the same degree of emotional range? Exactly. The rationzlizations are endless.”

    You nailed your problem on the head, Winston. Now I’m certain you have this lazy idea of acting that only big flashy scenes can express emotions well and that’s just ignorant. The skill set and nuances ‘Maya’ required, INCLUDING conveying emotions in a low-key yet effective and powerful manner, is something only the best actresses could have pulled off.

    And you’re right, the rationalizations ARE endless…and it would be refreshing if you didn’t pretend that yours aren’t part of it.

  • Lynne


    FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION – Anne Hathaway reminds the Academy why she must (and will) win the Oscar: http://youtu.be/y4yxsRRnvkE

    LOL, I can’t breathe!

  • phantom


    H-I-L-A-R-I-O-U-S 🙂 Sasha or Ryan should post it on the main page 🙂

  • Winston

    @Phantom-We disagree over the roles, the quality of the performances, which actor showed “nuance.” Now my initial point seemed harmless enough. I claimed that I believed Lawrence had the best performance, but that whether anyone agreed or not, the conspiracy theories were nonsense. You responded with a post that Lawrence’s role was not so tough, that all her rivals were better, etc. You also contributed the claim that Lawrence being under the weather was some devious stratgem. No offense but LOL.

    My response was that I disagreed. In reply to that, you offer a post again insisting that your favorite had the tougher role and the better performance and adding terms like “uberlikable hottie”.

    Sorry, but between conspiracies about faking illnsses and claims that Lawrence garner’s votes because she is attractive and not on the merits (who knew Chastain was so ugly?), it seems like you were the one that kept insisting that there is no bona fide competition and that no one can reasonably disagree with you. As I pointed out, SAG did. The AACTA did whether you care or not. And the critics groups were split despite ZDT being the critic’s darling in the run up to the Oscars. Even the Critic’s Choice was a wash as they would not give Lawrence all three critics awards. And the GG involved no direct competiton.

    Point is I clearly stated that I was expressing my opinion, that people were free to disagree, but that the conspiracy theores were nonsense. Forgive me if between claims of fake illneses and Weinstein machinations and Lawrence’s supposed hotness I misunderstood. (Incidentally, my point was that I think Lawrence was better in the HGs than Chastain in ZDT). I will take you at you word: “I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance.” That’s all I ask.

  • rufussondheim

    Yeah, that video had 53 views when I caught it. I bet it has a million by the end of the week.

    Very nice performance by whomever that woman is. It just shows there is a lot of talent out there that never gets recognized. But then we all knew that anyway.

  • phantom


    “You also contributed the claim that Lawrence being under the weather was some devious stratgem. No offense but LOL.”

    Problem with that is, that I might not have any proof that the pneumonia-story was a publicity stunt, but you don’t have any that it wasn’t, although few would argue that her appearance yesterday was anything but sickly and especially not pneumonia-sickly. That’s probably why I didn’t try to sell my take as a fact and quickly said : “Again, I can’t blame her or anyone else for ‘playing the game’ and campaigning HARD for an Oscar, I’m just saying this was my impression. Whether it was the truth or not, now that we’ll never know.” For the record, I HAD my first ever pneumonia very recently, I was coughing my tonsils out, I lost my voice and was weak like a bird. Lawrence didn’t cough, had her voice and looked rather energetic on stage. My guess is she had a running nose the day before and Harvey decided to exaggarate a little for dramatic effect, and that’s not a conspiracy theory, just an educated guess considering Weinstein LOVES those little stunts, his most recent ones involved a dog called Uggie and a Cinderella-moment for Meryl Streep co-starring Colin Firth.

    By the way, I didn’t reference Jennifer Lawrence as ‘the uberlikable hottie in THE crowdpleaser’, I referenced her CHARACTER which is the type of character that tends to win Oscars…ask Helen Hunt, Gwyneth Paltrow Julia Roberts, Reese Witherspoon, Sandra Bullock!

    Let’s just agree to disagree on this one but for future reference, don’t take my words out of context especially when you leave off my whole point stated in the same sentence you quote : “I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.

  • PaulH

    The meltdown on here if/when Lawrence wins the Oscar is going to be a sight to behold. Anyone who thinks a Riva win would spike ticket sales for Amour is not thinking clearly. It will be as much a what the eff decision and a backlash at the ticket window as some of Oscar’s other howlers over the years. It would be reverse ageism at its most venal if they go the career achievement route and give it to Riva.

  • Mel

    rufussondheim said: Very nice performance by whomever that woman is. It just shows there is a lot of talent out there that never gets recognized. But then we all knew that anyway.

    It is true. Guess who acknowledged that on her Facebook page today? Where she also happens to answer everyone who posts there? Clue: It was not Jennifer Lawrence.

    It was such a great experience being at the SAG awards yesterday and it made me think about all of the yet to be recognized actors out there who do the work while they think no one is watching. We are a community, a family – and I’m watching. I root for you. xxjes

  • name

    claire danes rly???
    Jessica Lange should have won!

  • Helen


    “Jessica Chastain’s, a tough, unlikable, no-nonsense, emotionally crippled female who has to convey emotions with silence and only a look or a muscle in her face…”

    That sounds a lot like Jennifer’s performance in THG. Carrying the film with just subtle emotion in her face reflecting the character’s thoughts.

    So you see, don’t say Lawrence doesn’t have range.

  • A.P


    It was such a great experience being at the SAG awards yesterday and it made me think about all of the yet to be recognized actors out there who do the work while they think no one is watching. We are a community, a family – and I’m watching. I root for you. xxjes

    Would that be Jessica Chastain???

    She’s such a class act… = )

  • phantom


    “So you see, don’t say Lawrence doesn’t have range.”

    That will be easy considering I never said that. I said :

    “I don’t doubt for a second that she is a “phenomenal actress” with a long and bright future ahead of her and that still doesn’t mean I automatically have to consider her the best and most worthy Best Actress contender this year.

    (…) as talented as Lawrence is, her range and skill set doesn’t even come close to Chastain’s. Not for now at least.

    (…) I NEVER doubted that Lawrence is the frontrunner or that she gave an excellent performance. Yes, voters do have a valid point when they are recognizing this performance…only they are doing it in the wrong category.”

    Just because I consider Jessica Chastain the more accomplished actress doesn’t mean I don’t have great respect for Jennifer Lawrence.

  • JLaw!

    My problem with JLaw is that she often looks dead behind the eyes. Eyes are a selling point for any film actor, she’s usually so vacant and has to rely of blinking multiple of times or pouting her face to convey emotion when she’s not screaming something “I volunteer!” or crying.

    The only time I felt something real about a performance of hers was in Winter’s Bone’s climax when she had to hold on to her father’s hands in the water. Now, that’s the JLaw I enjoyed.

  • JLaw!

    Speaking of range, not saying this is a true measure of it, but JLaw! was God-awful in SNL. She really lacked the skills and comedic timing to sell any of the jokes.

  • Ekim

    SNL was atrocious but not all can be placed on JLaw – the writing was terrible. That show should have gone away years ago…

  • Akari

    I’m a JLaw fan but I don’t want her to win an Oscar this year, her performance was outstanding but Jessica’s and Emmanuelle’s performance was more stronger. I rather have JLaw have a similar career path as Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams or Kate Winslet(a lot of nomination) than Gwyneth Paltrow and Sandra Bullock (one win and never again nominated.) She is too young to win an Oscar.
    I do hope Chastain or Riva wins the Bafta. JLaw is a excellent actress.

  • Akari

    I don’t want JLaw to win even though her performance was outstanding. She is too young to win. I believe Chastain or Riva might win the Oscar because their performances were more stronger. I rather JLaw have a similar career as Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Kate Winslet rather than Halle Berry, Sandra Bullock and Gwyneth Paltrow. I’m a JLaw fan.

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