When Argo beat Silver Linings Playbook for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards last night, an award that movie should have had in a walk, and Lincoln took home two SAG Awards for its pair of actors (it was only expected to take one) it suddenly became obvious that a three-way split is going on in the awards race and Argo is benefiting from it.
This is somewhat reminiscent of 2010: it wasn’t The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network. It was The King’s Speech vs. The Social Network vs. Black Swan vs. The Fighter. Each film represented a specific group, or type of person, if you will. And none of those voting blocks could be convinced to drop their support of the one they loved and affix it to the only one that could have beaten The King’s Speech. Moreover, in that type of scenario, LEAST OFFENSIVE wins the day. No one hates Argo.