I have been all that good at predicting the BAFTAs. They are like herding cats in many ways, unless they have aligned themselves with Oscar, which happens on occasion, and especially has been recently since Oscar pushed the date back. Very little wiggle room. A consensus vote tells us which films are getting the popular vote at a given moment in time. And that’s what we’re faced with now and it looks like Argo has that vote locked up. At least, with the BAFTAs, but maybe the Oscars too – who knows. By this point I might even have to add, who cares. The BAFTAs will likely be a day for Argo fans to celebrate because they nominated Ben Affleck in the acting category, which tells us they really liked the movie.
But this guy at the Guardian believes that the most nominations might mean something at the BAFTAs – it didn’t mean anything at the Globes, nor the Critics Choice and probably not at the Oscars either — and what a shame that is. He keeps hope alive over there at the Guardian, even calling Lincoln “the favourite.” But alas.
The real question on many people’s minds is whether Emmanuelle Riva can pick up some buzz at the BAFTAs. Remember, she’s 85. Oscar campaigning is going to be very difficult for her. I suspect she is rather amused by the dog and pony that it is. You live that long and almost everything amuses you. It would be a funny screenplay idea to follow her around with all of the publicists trying to talk her into doing stuff to get the win. Maybe it is a high honor to win an Oscar. Maybe, in the end, it might not be, not after all we know about them.
It is a little depressing to see these awards always lean towards Oscar. I am sure the BAFTA could unhinge themselves from Oscar if they wanted to but you can’t get the same attention from the press or the public unless you’re part of the “contest.” And so this is the house that Jack built. And we live in it.
Let’s go through the categories one by one.
- Argo –Sasha Stone, Marshall Flores
- Les Miserables
- Life of Pi, Ryan Adams
- Zero Dark Thirty
Argo should handily win since it has all of the buzz right now. I have to stop predicting Lincoln to win because at this point it is no longer good for my heart to do so. I have to force myself to say Argofuckyourself. ARGO. ARGO will win. ARGO. Alt. Life of Pi.