I thought it might be worth combing through the Oscars category by category. What is most likely to win, what might win and what the dark horse could be. I come at this three ways. First, what the general consensus is based on previous wins, Second, what the shifting buzz seems to be indicating, and third what the potential upset might be.
This weekend, is the WGA, the Eddie, the CAS and the MPSE. They will probably confirm what we already suspect, that the industry has determined its winner and that winner will go on to be confirmed at the Oscars. It’s all over but the shouting.
One important thing to note about this year is that it might be the first time ever that the Oscars had their ballots turned in before the major guilds announced. That seemed to throw the race into a kind of flux we’ve never seen before. The pundits seemed more confused than ever, switching predictions each week – it’s Argo, no, it’s Silver Linings Playbook, no, it’s Les Miserables, no, it’s Life of Pi, no, it’s Lincoln, no it’s back to Argo. After Argo won the PGA, then the SAG, then the DGA and then the BAFTA it became unstoppable. Whether it was due to Affleck’s snub, Zero Dark Thirty’s demise or it being a really likable movie — it turned out to be the magic formula and now Ben Affleck is set to make Academy history on one week.