One of the first Oscars of the night will be for Supporting Actor. At that point, we may have an idea as to where the night is headed. De Niro could signal a POSSIBLE Silver Linings leaning. Tommy Lee Jones may show they like Lincoln better than people thought (or not), Christoph Waltz shows an Academy in conflict, Philip Seymour Hoffman might signal a split up group of winners. But if it’s Alan Arkin, I think you can expect Argo to win what it can as voters throw awards at it.
After all, you haven’t seen a film win this many awards heading into the race since Slumdog Millionaire. In both cases, the film won the Critics Choice, the Globe, the PGA, the DGA, the SAG, the WGA and the BAFTA. That’s a hell of a haul for a movie without a director nom and there’s a very good chance what’s driving it may be more than the usual assumptions: Affleck’s snub and it being about Hollywood.
Clearly, Argo is a movie a lot of people really like. That means voters may vote with affection and I’m starting to wonder if that might mean Alan Arkin is swept up in the enthusiasm. A different actor has won every time so far, except Christoph Waltz, who’s won two. Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG. But it feels like anyone’s game. Actually, the last list I looked at with wins made me think that, if Argo wins, there is a good chance it has to win more than just Picture, Screenplay, Editing. If they really like it they will remember one of the best things about it – and that’s Arkin. No, it isn’t a virtuoso performance but it’s a lot like Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love – a premium showstopper.
It isn’t part of groupthink, I know, because most are swirling around Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. In fact there is an active narrative over at Metacritic that believes Silver Linings could take the whole night with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Screenplay and Actress. Stranger things have happened. Okay, no, they haven’t. They never have.
I sort of wish there were more people taking bigger risks with their predictions. Like, if you’re predicting Ang Lee why not also predict Life of Pi? If you’re predicting David O. Russell, why not also Silver Linings Playbook for Picture?
When I looked at films with 11 nominations that won a max of 5 Oscars, as many are predicting Life of Pi to do (or Lincoln, with 12) the film that won Best Picture instead took acting prizes with it. That makes it seem like Arkin would have the edge. You know, just saying.
The Aviator won 5: Art Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Best Supporting Actress
Million Dollar Baby won 4: Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor
Hugo won 5: Art Direction, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects
The Artist won 5: Picture, Director, Actor, Costumes, Score
Saving Private Ryan won 5: Director, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Sound Effects Editing
Shakespeare in Love won 7: Picture, Actress, Supp. Actress, Art Dir, Score, Screenplay
While Director is one of the strongest wins matched with Best Picture, acting wins have the second highest percentage after director – so if there’s no director win, well, Arkin could prevail, as this Marshall Flores charts proves:
I don’t think any Academy member who has witnessed DeNiro crying on Katie Couric’s show could resist giving him the Oscar. Besides, this is his first nomination in 21 years! A win could be a way of telling him the nightmare represented by those Focker flicks and things like “Hide and Seek” is over. The message is: “You were great. You still are great. It’s just that most of your movies in the last two decades have not been great. Go back to making great movies.”
I would like to see Hoffman win. While all 5 are previous oscar winners, Hoffman is the only one without a supporting actor win. Hoffman is also a somewhat personification of the great supporting actor.
TLJ would be okay, he has been consistent for the last decade, ever since The Hunted/Estrada. Aging like wine, and an interesting performance from him as well. If Lincoln loses to Argo, a Day-Lewis/TLJ double would suffice (with a possible win for Spielberg).
A 3rd oscar for Spielberg would be the biggest moment of the night (even though I much prefer Day Lewis & De Niro). Winning 3 director oscars puts him in rare company. My memory is a little foggy, but William Wyler is the first to come to mind.
The other 3 im not keen on. A 2nd oscar for Waltz already feels premature. While I thought Arkin was pitch perfect and deserving of a nom, I dont like him as a double oscar winner though. And De Niro’s performance just isnt oscar worthy, the nom should be enough.
While I don’t think Hoffman is quite as good here as he was in Capote, I think he would be my choice to win. If for some ungodly reason Arkin wins, I probably will turn off my tv for sanity’s sake. “Serenity Now, Serenity Now!”
OK Kane I’m gonna pick it up and I’ll watch it. I actually like the cast in the film. I’nm not a big Phoenix fan but he’s done some pretty good work and I appreciate his talent. I’ve loved a lot Amy Adams work and I’ve hated some of it. Hoffman even though I think he’s brilliant as I said seems to be caught in the same performance over and over. But I’ll try it. I have a couple other I want to pick up so I’ll pick that one up at the same time.
“Alan Arkin is NOT Dame Judi Dench.”
Have you ever seen them in the same room at the same time? …eh?
Alan Arkin is NOT Dame Judi Dench. End of discussion.
@NicV: “Here’s my problem with Hoffman. I think he’s a brilliant actor. But he doesn’t make me forget I’m watching Phillip Seymour Hoffman.”
I am not a huge Hoffman fan and sometimes his acting is too self-conscious which is painful. He can be wonderful, like his performance in The Savages, and then horrible, like his stage performances in The Seagull and Long Day’s Journey Into Night.
I hated The Master but even I have to admit, Hoffman was probably the best thing about that movie, next to Amy Adams. (I didn’t like Phoenix’s performance, one long pained expression for two and half hours). Hoffman deserves to win for his performance but I don’t think it’s going to happen on Sunday.
I’m not sure if he could win but, at least in my opinion, he should not win…
Still thinking Argo is only going to win 2-3 awards and that is all it deserves actually.
I think Alan Arkin is the least likely to win supporting actor on Sunday. Did anyone find his acting much of a stretch in that film?
Why are people not predicting a win for best picture and best director for Life of Pi?
Because Life of Pi has won hardly any best picture awards anywhere. The same for Ang Lee, which is surprising to me personally because Pi is so obviously a director’s movie, even more so than Argo.
I am going to be very sad if Ang Lee doesn’t win on Sunday, though if he does, I anticipate a very warm reception from the audience.
I do hope Lee does a film with a lot of actors next time around so he finally has a chance to win best picture. Too bad he didn’t direct Anna Karenina.
“Remember when many predicted Melissa Leo would lose the Oscars after that campaign advertisement and despite the fact that she won most of the key precursors.
I think the same thing is happening with Tommy Lee Jones… people are dismissing him very easily here.”
Well, Melissa Leo won many more key precursors than TLJ has. Leo won the New York Film Critics, then went on to win BFCA, Globe, and SAG. Tommy Lee Jones has only won SAG. Still, SAG is a huge one to have under your belt. I agree that no one who has won SAG should be ignored as the possible Oscar winner.
“I almost believe Hoffman is better in this than Capote (and I loved Capote).”
I agree with this^.
Regarding the category itself, I don’t care. It isn’t going to propel anybody’s career, they’ve all won before, most are not the best supporting performances of the year, and winning won’t “finally reward a wonderful, but overlooked career.”
So, I honestly don’t give a fuck who takes this one.
JP! I think it’s the same thing. It would have been SO easy for them to just throw the Oscar to HBC, based on her consistency and longevity in the industry and her appearance in the Best Picture favorite. But they went with the strongest performance in an okay, not particularly competitive field. This year’s Supporting Actor is considered more competitive, but only Jones gives a prototypical Supporting Actor Oscar-winning performance. (OK, I haven’t seen Hoffman.)
Remember when many predicted Melissa Leo would lose the Oscars after that campaign advertisement and despite the fact that she won most of the key precursors.
I think the same thing is happening with Tommy Lee Jones… people are dismissing him very easily here.
I think everyone is overreacting to the Argo hoopla. Yes, Argo will probably win Picture, and yes, it’ll probably take Screenplay along with it, especially if they think Lincoln is boring. And Lincoln may only win Actor if they think it’s the DDL show and nothing more. But the awards are going to be spread out this year no matter what. Given the quirks of the preferential ballot system and that many films of the 1930s and 1940s walked away with Picture and not much else (even Casablanca!), very little will surprise me this year. I think the Academy voters have enough common sense and free will to spread some goodwill to other films rather than award Argo in places like the Sound categories, Supporting Actor, or Score.
@Nic V, on Tuesday go pick up The Master, or rent it. If you like Paul Thomas Anderson, or anything resembling Kubrick/Malick then I’m sure you’d, at the very least, find the performances something from another world. I almost believe Hoffman is better in this than Capote (and I loved Capote).
@Rufus, I feel the exact same way. Hoffman deserves this. I feel so iffy about best actor because I loved Day-Lewis as Lincoln but I feel the best of the year was Phoenix. Who didn’t see Day-Lewis knocking this out of the park? No one. But who saw Phoenix knocking this out into the stratosphere? Not many until the first trailer appeared. I believe Phoenix went through a bigger transformation (as an actor and his character) and created something wholly original. He was a walking tank of gasoline juggling five lit torches just for the fun of it. So it’s hard for me to deny Day-Lewis a third Oscar because he deserves it more than anyone else alive, but it’s also difficult seeing Phoenix top this performance.
I think at this point in order for Arkin to win there would have had be another acting nomination for the film in some other category. The omission of Affleck [deservingly omitted by the way] from the Actor category weakens Arkin’s position in Supporting. For quite awhile I was behind Arkin but then Jones came along. Arkin is that breath of fresh air in Argo when you look at the performances. He and Goodman really steal the show. But with that said I don’t see at this point him being able to sustain the support he had early on in the process. I have too agree there were too many other performances in film in this particular category that were overlooked simply because of the momentum for Argo. Miller, Fassbender, Spader, Hardy and a host of others. It’s fascinating to me now to look at Argo and realize that the truly weakest element of this film is the acting. This is not an actors driven piece. Whereas when you look at all the others except Pi they are driven by performances.
De Niro certainly is in the same position as Field in Lincoln. Old timer who’s career of late has not been particularly illustrious. Many in fact would look at De Niro’s work in at least the last ten years and ask themselves is the same man who starred in the Deer Hunter, Raging Bull, and Taxi Driver. I just don’t know how much of all the campaigning will help him to win his third.
Honestly I enjoyed Jone’s performance in Lincoln but in retrospect I think I like Spader’s performance more. Even with that said Jones is certainly my choice in this category and his performance is memorable.
As for Waltz I haven’t seen Django. I had great expectations for Django and then as the word began to filter down I became less and less interested. Then when the details of the script became even more apparent I refused to even see it. So any opinion I had on Waltz would be based on what I’ve read and weened from other commentators. I could see where Waltz wins by default.
Here’s my problem with Hoffman. I think he’s a brilliant actor. But he doesn’t make me forget I’m watching Phillip Seymour Hoffman. When I saw Perks of Being a Wallflower I was amazed by the the ability of Logan Lerman, Erza Miller and Emma Watson to erase from my mind previous work. There was no sign of Kevin in Miller’s performance, there was absolutely no sign of Percy in Lerman’s performance and Watson was the biggest revealation for me. After ten years of seeing her as Hermine she completely removed that from my perception. Hoffman hasn’t done that for me for a long time. It’s like I keep seeing the same character reguritated over and over lately. I haven’t seen The Master so my comments are based on what I’ve seen of Hoffman since Capote. Not including Capote but since Capote. The only piece where I thought I was given something different from Hoffman was in the Radio piece with the ship and all the rock music. And then you have the issue of Hoffman as a Supporting Actor when he’s really billed as the equal of Phoenix.
I think Arkin could pull it off but then it would be one of the weakest wins of the year. If Jone’s is going too loose then I’d prefer it be Hoffman.
After watching Argo again the other night it hit me, regarding awards. 1) Argo is in my top 3 choices for BP (behind ZD30 and then Beasts) 2) I found the editing much better now that I really paid attention to it and 3) Alan Arkin was in less of the movie than I remembered. It’s a fine performance for what it is, a few shades different than Little Miss Sunshine. Argo moved at such a fast pace that I feel it should’ve been at least 20-30 minutes longer to slow down and feature more of Arkin, Goodman and Cranston and the picture itself wouldn’t lose a thing. However I now feel that Arkin sort of coasted his way as 5th place throughout the entire season with late comers like Waltz and DiCaprio sprouting up here and there. Somebody else could’ve taken Arkin’s place and I wouldn’t feel bad, like DiCaprio, Bardem, Jason Clarke or even James Badge Dale from Flight did more in 5 minutes than half of the actors in Hollywood did with entire trilogies.
“Jones is dead in the water right now.”
Uncle Jay: I must say that is a very curious statement you make here. How is it possible for an actor who just won the Screen Actor’s Guild Award just a few weeks ago -an organization that by leaps and bounds has the largest membership in the Academy- be “dead in the water” Are you serious? Jones in the end may be edged out by Hoffmann, Waltz or even De Niro, but he must surely be seen now as at least a narrow front runner, based on the most compelling indicator we have to this point.
“Dead in the water” is not the expression that applies here to say the least.
And yes, I also agree with ‘Gage Creed’ that a De Niro win does not indicate anything larger afoot. A De Niro win is a stand alone in a category that everyone knows is a barn burner from the outset. There are no residual benefits. It only means that SLP will come away with one award or possibly two is Lawrence triumphs as many expect her to.
On the other hand, if Arkin were to pull one of the biggest upsets in Academy Award history, well then you would see a huge night for Affleck’s film. But I think we have better chances to win the Power Ball jackpot of get struck by lightning.
I just can’t see it. Arkin appears to be the ONLY one of the five who cannot or won’t win, ARGO or no ARGO.
Any of the other four can win, and I guess it depends on what day leading in to the big night on Sunday one is asked to get a different choice each time.
Today I am thinking Jones. If Jones wasn’t the kind of actor who rubs some people wrong, I think he would have locked this up a while back. Even so, he seems to be clinging to a very narrow edge.
I think the BAFTA wins by Waltz and Tarantino will carry them to the Oscar on Sunday. I don’t think Arkin has won a single award for his Argo performance. He suddenly wins the biggest prize? No chance.
If people had time to watch the films then Hoffman will win.
Even if you didn’t fall in love with The Master, you have to be spellbound by Hoffman’s performance.
I still think he’s going to win.
Even if DeNiro wins like many are predicting him to, it doesn’t necessarily mean that SLP will “rule the night”. I recall that Little Miss Sunshine was predicted by many to win Best Picture, and after Arkin surprisingly won many people could think the movie would actually win too, but it didn’t.
Many people love Jones. No Country for Old Men. In the Valley of Elah! Everyone seems to think he’s a grump, but with someone of his stature, do they really care?
Most people who aren’t predicting Jones, I’m curious: is it because (1) you prefer another performance, (2) you think Jones is playing himself, (3) you figure they don’t like Jones, (4) you figure they don’t like Lincoln, or (5) you think sentiment (a la De Niro/Arkin) will rule the day? Any predominant reason?
Sasha I hope u theory is wrong very wrong.
If it does it confirms many of our worst fears that mre disastrous for Oscars public eroding reputation, to award a mediocre film over one particular much more worthy one inLincoln. But are Oscar that infatuated with celebrity status which is the only reason Argo will win. That they have a need to embrace all actors involved nominated for one film?
Give me a f#%$n break! Akin to a red with rage steam coming out of their ears furious dragon desperate to release their firey rage , I full of resentment of Oscars pretentious fanciful ways and there obsession of kicking the deserved best film in the. Guts. So no I strongly believe Argo will not get up for acting. No comparison to Judi dench performance either sorry. Her performance had a authenticity and prestige her presence lifted film to me above average. Arkin shoulda won for aviator. Even then his snub then doesnot jjustify a truly weak performance of the weak as hell Argo as a contender pffftt even I admit the overrated chcago and beautifhul mind even crash and hell mdb were more deserving than Argo
Then again, the winner could also be Waltz. And then we’d have a new AMPAS rule: “in order to win the award for Best Supporting Actor, your name has to start with ‘Christ'”. LOL
No, and to be honest Sasha, your whole strategy is off….especially this year.
I do think “Argo” will win Picture/Adapted Screenplay/Editing and possibly Sound Mixing. But Arkin will not win…
Waltz is on a nice roll right now and will be triumphant here, as he should. Globe and BAFTA awarded him, and the only reason SAG didn’t nominate him is because “Django” wasn’t screened at the time of the balloting. Let’s not take away the fact that Waltz DESERVES it. It’s a brilliant performance.
The only way I can see De Niro winning, is if they went for a “Silver Linings” sweep, which it will not. Lawrence will be the only win there.
Jones is dead in the water right now. With “Lincoln” losing its steam in favor of “Argo” and Globes and BAFTA going another route with Waltz…Jones’ chances have significantly dropped. Spielberg and Day-Lewis will cover this ground.
Hoffman, while great, the nod is the award (same for Phoenix and Adams).
TY Zooey!
“You’re worried about the Ayatollah? Try the WGA.” For that cringe-worthy line alone, Arkin and Chris Terrio should just be thankful they were nominated.
Alas, Murph, it’s because of that line that they will win. Voters eat that shit up with a spoon (Hello, guilds!)
I’ve been calling Arkin to win this category for a while now. I think Argo has to take home at least four Oscars for it to be a meaningful Best Picture winner (Film, Screenplay, Editing, Sup. Actor)
I hate it, but that’s the race this year and as we say now, Fuck.This.Shit.
To convince myself that I’m not crazy I watched Lincoln again yesterday. Man. Why James Spader wasn’t nominated. And what that cast — film Gods, respected stage actors — all turning in remarkable performances, it is a disgrace it didn’t win SAG.
Don’t even get me started on Kushner and Kennedy. Agh! Blood Boiling.
Like Sasha wisely said a few years back, recent Oscar editions have proved that in fact we know nothing. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised if Arkin won. But if that happens, I’ll think of him as the guy who wins 2 Oscars by doing NOTHING.
Andre is right on the mark. The “old” repeat guys are nom’d again? WTH? The least exciting part of the race, and they should get it over with right away during the awards. I am so po’d about this category, all of the men have won before — it almost seems like a MAFIA set up doesn’t it? When is Hollywood going to think outside the box and start giving noms to the young folk? I thought Dwight Henry was absolutely outstanding. Leo DiCaprio deserved a nom. Actually, James Gandolfini in ZD30 in a smallish role was BIG and I remember HIM as much as Chastain.
I hope all the industry people are reading these comments — you all should be ashamed for these repeat noms, they’re getting boring!
Well, if you believe the Hollywood Reporter “anonymous” voter article, Phillip Hoffman is going to win. He hardly shows up on anyone’s radar, but it could happen. And like the anonymous voter wrote, he doesn’t know how Arkin is in the nomination. His performance was NOT, REPEAT NOT, outstanding, or anything that any 2-bit comedian couldn’t do.
@ Paddy,
we’ll have the running order by tomorrow evening. It’s always this way. Last year we knew it. The year before as well. I guess they’ll start with supporting actor. They don’t keep the most wide open category for later as somebody wrote.
In the last few years there have been a few trends in terms of awards. More often they start with supporting actor followed by some 5-6 awards (one of which is animated feature film) and then go to supporting actress.
Another option is a couple of awards (most likely costume design or production design and maybe visual effects) and then go one of the acting awards.
There have been times when they start with one technical award and then go to an acting award – they did that in the Million Dollar Baby year.
And there was the No Country For Old Men year and last year and some other year when they present some 4-5 awards before the first acting Oscar.
My guess is they’ll keep supporting actress for later because Anne is a big star now and they won’t start with her.
“just because” voting. Arkin, just because.
my NGNG is Desplat, just because.
when a film wins BP it gets extra votes down-ballot, just because.
“…it just doesn’t make sense that tens of thousands of people are voting for Argo solely because they want to avenge Ben.”
“I think they’re voting for the movie because they like it quite a bit.”
AD seeing the truth, finally?
Do we know the running order? I’d be interested to know when Film Editing will be. If it’s early and it doesn’t go to Argo, we could be in for a very strange night!
If The Master had been able to get a BP nod then PSH would have been the favorite in this category. Now it is TLJ I think. He got many good performances under his belt (e.g. No Country for Old Men) unlike Arkin and DeNiro and it would be nice to see him up there.
Finally saw Argo last night — the very definition of serviceable Hollywood entertainment. There is nothing unique about it whatsoever. And seeing Kyle Chandler in both Zero Dark 30 and this just made me keel over in hysterics.
Am I the only one that enjoyed Alan Arkin’s performance? Sure it wasn’t acting heavy or dramatically sound as the other four nominees but Arkin brought an entertaining gravity to a pretty tense movie. The nomination is definitely deserved because he steals every scene he’s in and to me it was perfect. I wouldn’t be unhappy if he wins and secretly I kinda want him to win (even though my money’s on Tommy Lee Jones – most likely to award him for a role that’s deserving of the win, unlike say for The Fugitive where it was obvious to ANY ONE that year that Ralph Fiennes gave the BEST ACTED PERFORMANCE).
Thank you Sasha for some thoughts.
—
One of the main reasons I still haven’t submitted my AD prediction is that I am still torn in a few categories. Two of them being Best Director and Best Picture.
Personally, I’d like to see Pi and Lee win. But my head — mind – oddly enough considering the Argo buzz, still sees Lincoln win the BP (and possibly Spielberg/Lee for Best Director as well).
I love this season partly because at the end of the day one of these nine films will win the big award and, speaking for myself, I can’t complain. [The Braveheart year for good measure was lukewarm to me; I recall myself being a bit surprised for Babe to be nomed for BP, and mostly disinterested (disinterested) when Braveheart was announced the big winner of the night/(my) morning – mainly because while I was not rooting for Braveheart, a relatively good film, I felt nothing passionate enough at that time for Sense and Sensibility either. (But I still enjoy S&S nowadays more than the first time, when it comes up on cables.) However, to begin with, this year there’s something for everyone.]
By the way, I don’t believe Arkin can win this year given obviously stronger rivals like these.
I feel pretty confident that this is a toss-up between Waltz, Lee Jones and De Niro. I don’t think Hoffman’s performance stand a chance among 6,000 academy members (as opposed to minor groups of critics, where he is bound to do much better) and Arkin? No way. Just, no way. His role is the definition of charming, but insubstantial.
i love that people mention Walter Brennan on this site. still wish Eddie Redmayne and Tom Holland or Ewan McGregor were filling in for DeNiro and Arkin. it would be a pity if Arkin won again for a minor effort (as he did for SUNSHINE). he’s given such terrific performances in the past. giving him an Oscar for trivial work is an insult to him and cheapens the honor.
Arkin can’t and won’t win. The Judi Dench argument may seen valid, but Arkin wan’t snubbed the previous year like Dench. On the contrary, he won very recently, not being the favourite. Shakespeare had 4 acting nods, Argo has 1. If by some miracle they squeezed Affleck for lead, with two acting nominations Arkin might have bigger chances. With 1 and in this crowd no way can he win. However, the Dench scenario might apply to De Niro. Everything seems to be in place – part of a huge ensemble, 4 acting nods, Harvey Weinstein, lock (or near lock) for Best Actress, feel good movie, father/mother figure. He wasn’t snubbed like Dench, but hasn’t been in the game for a long time, so that kinda works the same way. And all things considered, he really does a great acting job. He can’t really spread his wings with this rather standard and bleak character, but De Niro still has the chops and manages to squeeze as much juice out of Pat Solitano Sr. as he can. I’m not a big fan of Lawrence’s character, Cooper is not bad, but the Oscar nomination feels a bit over the top for what he did. It’s De Niro that’s the most fun to watch and his scenes really shine. People praise Lawrence for standing her ground against De Niro, that she wasn’t outshone by the legend. Bullshit, she just outshouted him.
I think if Alan Arkin doesn’t win, he’ll probably think:
“Ar-go-fuck-yourself Academy!”
I would be flabbergasted if Arkin won. It’s easily the weakest performance of the nominee, and frankly he should just be happy to be there when he was chosen over much finer supporting work from Ewan McGregor, Ezra Miller, Javier Bardem, and Samuel L. Jackson.
This category is seriously a toss-up. Obvious consensus would be Tommy Lee Jones since he’s won the SAG and has been considered a frontrunner this season. But Lincoln has suddenly turned into the “uncool” film to vote for this season, and I don’t know how to deal with the ridiculous assertion that Jones will lose votes because he’s “prickly” or whatever. I’m still predicting him, but very, very hesitantly.
Hoffman gives my favorite performance in the category (even though it’s fraudulent. In what universe is his role “supporting”? Ditto Waltz). But outside of the actors branch, The Master was virtually ignored, making me think that this film just doesn’t have widespread support. I just can’t buy De Niro, either. Weinstein has been clever in crafting this “he’s due” backstory throughout this campaign and the media bought into this hoopla, as a sort of “career honor” for him. I know De Niro is a legend, but it took Meryl 30 years, with multiple nominations and statue-worthy performances along the way to finally get that third. I just don’t see the Academy throwing him a third just yet for this performance that pales in comparison to his previous legendary work. Plus, they’re already giving Day-Lewis his third, so that may be enough for them.
If there is a surprise it will be Waltz, and part of me feels like everyone is underestimating him. Globe + Bafta is a big deal (just ask Meryl last year). He didn’t get a SAG nod but supposedly the guild didn’t even receive screeners of Django. Plus, it’s a showy, lead role. But he won SO recently and it’s in the same veins asTarantino’s other exploitative, history revisionism that he just won for. So I don’t know what happens with him.
You have great taste Andre – they are two of the greatest screen actors.
I’m still WTFing at Leo not being a part of this conversation.
True, Dave… Guess I’d just like to see Hoffman and day-Lewis win so two of my favourite living actors can win Oscars on the same night.
Also, the Hoffman/Anderson collaboration is a meaningful one and to see that rewarded would be lovely as well.
Yeah, Best Supporting Actor comes 90mins into the show. An hour after Hathaway has won.
Stephen- No, Arkin isn’t playing a real life character.
“Is Hoffman too young? ”
He’s older than De Niro himself, Hanks (and Crowe would have won without his shenanigans too), and in the same age range as Denzel, Penn, and Jack when they got their 2nd Oscars, so I don’t see why age would be a factor.
Yes, Alan Arkin COULD win. He’s the best performance in the film. He’s playing the heart and soul of the Academy. And yes, he’s playing a real life person, yes? A producer. This film won the PGA. It’s all about how great producers are. No WOnder.
And yes, I think they’ll give out Best Supp. Actress first. Because holding back the mystery category ~ Best Supporting Actor, builds tension, if not suspense. They’ll give it later.
I don’t know if this means anything, but not too long ago, the academy nominated Tommy lee jones for best actor for a movie no one likely heard of, let alone one everyone was surprised when hearing the nomination. It seems the academy really does love jones, and now that he’s in a category where any one can win, he’s got a huge shot.
Andre, i wonder if enough AMPAS members mirror your thought about not being too enthusiastic about rewarding the supporting actors with a repeat Oscar. (Mind you, they nominated them in the first place). They mightn’t give a shit about the films, and just go on a matter of perceived entitlement. Who is entitled to a 2nd Oscar? Waltz? (too soon/too foreign?) Arkin? (too slight a role/too soon after 1st win?) Is Hoffman too young? It would come back to a guy with a 35 year career or one that is 40 years and two Oscars already.
If the show producers are smart, they should schedule this category later not sooner. Go Supp Actress early this year.
“… these GUYS’ careers…”
for an english teacher, I sure as hell make a lot of mistakes here!!!!
the fact that they’re all second-or-third-time winners makes me significantly less excited for this race.
I mean, how would this Oscar actually change any of these guys’ careers at this point in any of their careers?
rooting for Hoffman, but not too passionate about this one… and most of the other categories, for that matter
People predict every single other category based on precursors win and nominations, but at this most are predicting De Niro. Meh.
Again i think it is so telling that this close to Oscar night, there is so much equivocation about the winners. We really know very little.
Re Supp Actor. My favorite – Philip Seymour Hoffman (every little thing he does is magic). My least in this category – Alan Arkin. The safe bet would be Waltz – as he has the precursor wins that seem to matter (although Jones’s SAG is compelling), I have been vascillating with this category for weeks.
At one time I thought DeNiro would get the sentimental vote. But i dunno.
The ‘Spielberg directing actors to an oscar drought’ is about to be quenched. But with 1, 2 or 3? I do think Hathaway is a sure thing, but we just don’t know how deep the Lincoln love at AMPAS runs. It feels like an eternity since the nomination day, and 12 nods for Lincoln is nothing to sneeze at!
Hmm to predict from the head or the heart? Head says Waltz or Jones. Heart says Hoffman or DeNiro (even tho i really didn’t like SLP), the guy is a fucking legend and just still lights up that screen with such intensity. Can he be denied? Flip a coin – anybody but Arkin.
There I’ve answered the question. Sorry it took me so long.
Life of Pi isn’t wining more than 4 including Director.
here I have no clue… I’d personally vote for Hoffman, since I found his character to be the most compelling and challenging of the 5. Jones would be a close second for his wit and beautiful delivery of Kushner’s dialogue (no easy feat, obviously).
can’t say that I care that much about the other 3. the problem here is, even though this win is early on in the night, it might give off 2 very opposite signals:
1 – ooo “x” actor from “x” movie won, that signals a sweep
or
2 – “x” actor’s win is the Academy’s way of rewarding “x” film. it won’t win anything else.
therefore, I refuse to bash myself over the head with this category hahahahaha
Nope. Arkin as a two-time winner sounds as good as Hilary Swank, two-time winner, and I like Arkin a lot but what amount of effort did those roles require?
This category was loaded with so many possibilities and I feel like the inconsistencies just reek of buyer’s remorse. I think voters felt like they **had** to pick previous winners and actors from these certain films whereas work by McConaughey, Clarke, Jackson, DiCaprio, and even Goodman (I could easily envision a much better campaign on his behalf just because he invokes the memory of John Chambers) got ignored yet either easily could have slid in to make an interesting race. For the record, I thought Waltz had a lead role, PSH arguably was too but was outstanding as was Jones. DeNiro is in there because ‘3-time winner’ is the word and he is not getting any more chances at another one while Arkin had to be the representative of Argo on the actor’s front (even if Goodman was far more interesting). Arkin as a stand-in for every Hollywood producer was catnip early on but I think that changed when voters actually watched their screeners and realized the depth in the category for what was nominated alone.
It’s DeNiro vs. Waltz vs. Jones
Christoph Waltz as a two-time winner is bizarre but he is being positioned as a Dianne Weist type of actor for Quentin. DeNiro won no precursors but again a 3-time winner with Harvey Weinstein on his side. Jones’ positioning may depend on how well Lincoln does elsewhere in the voting.
If Daniel Day-Lewis & Robert De Niro win, there will be 4 actors with 3 Oscars but the category combinations are different:
DDL: 3 leads
Jack Nicholson: 2 lead, 1 supporting
De Niro: 1 lead, 2 supporting
Walter Brennan: 3 supporting
Nice, eh?
I just hope the directors don’t make the stupid decision to put the Supporting Actor category in the beginning of the ceremony. Hope they put it in the end… before original song, which I assume will be more towards the end, and the big 6 categories.
Best Supporting Actor is probably the toughest category to call. The only thing that’s easy to surmise is that Arkin has no chance. Even if Argo wins big. The other four nominees all have a shot though.
Dench’s situation in 1999 has nothing to do with Arkin’s. He won in a year in which he did not give the best performance and that time it was considered a lifetime achievement award. Dench lost one year before for Mrs. Brown, which she should have won or at least she deserved more than Helen Hunt, an actress I like a lot but that just wasn’t better than Dench was in Mrs. Brown. Dench was more of a consolation prize.
“That’s a hell of a haul for a movie without a director nom and there’s a very good chance that what’s driving it may be more than the usual assumptions: Affleck’s snub and it being about Hollywood.”
Exactly, Sasha. I’ve thought this all along. To think that all the guilds, with thousands of voters in each one (in SAG’s case, over 100,000, I think) would just drop their favorites and flock en masse to Argo because Ben Affleck didn’t get a director’s nomination just seems…well, sort of illogical. I always ask myself: if I were an Academy voter, what would I do in this situation? Amour is my #1 of the nominees. Would I be so outraged that Affleck didn’t get a nomination that I’d just switch my BP vote to Argo as some sort of Ben appeasement? No, I wouldn’t. And I think most of us, if we have favorites (Lincoln, ZD30, Pi, what have you), wouldn’t just flush that movie down the toilet and switch over to Argo to protest Ben’s exclusion in director. So why do we think so many of the real voters would? I could see some guild/AMPAS voters perhaps being swayed by that if they were ambivalent and didn’t have a strong favorite anyway, but it just doesn’t make sense that tens of thousands of people are voting for Argo solely because they want to avenge Ben.
I think they’re voting for the movie because they like it quite a bit.
I also agree with Sasha about best supporting actor. In a category that’s this much of a clusterfuck, I don’t think anyone can be discounted for the win. With that said, I don’t think Argo’s coattails are large enough to suck up Arkin. BP, adapted, editing, maybe sound editing, yes. Anything else for Argo would be fairly surprising. I agree that if Arkin somehow wins, Argo will be pretty much cleaning up in most of its categories.
I wish I had the balls to predict Philip Seymour Hoffman.
Like, if you’re predicting Ang Lee why not also predict Life of Pi?
Don’t ask me. That’s what I’ve been saying all this time. All you guys seemed to decide on a split a while ago because of the ARGO momentum. Then after that it was ‘okay well then, who will win director?’ As if ARGO was definite, making a split definite. I think you guys hypnotize each other.
Robert De Niro is winning.
I agree with Hawkeye–Arkin and Waltz are definite “no”s. De Niro isn’t good enough, and to demonstrate that, he hasn’t won any precursors. Tommy Lee Jones’s performance is indeed outstanding, and it’s an outstanding and central role to the film, and he’s quite different than he often is in films (“Fugitive,” “Men in Black,” “No Country”). He won most of the critics awards, and the SAG. It’s not definite, but it’s not a toss-up either–this one’s definitely leaning to Mr. Jones.
To answer the question simply: not by a long shot, especially since he wasn’t particularly memorable in the film. Another part of it is kind of the same reason I think Waltz isn’t going to win either: they both won not too long ago, and in the case of Waltz, it was for a very similar performance. Add to that the fact that Hoffman won Best Actor merely seven years ago, while it’s been 19 years since Jones won. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Jones gave an outstanding performance in Lincoln, won the SAG award, and won several critics awards for the performance throughout awards season, making him the clear frontrunner. I’m still mystified as to why the Big Chart says De Niro is the consensus when he’s clearly not. It’s true that it’s been a while since he won his second Oscar, but I highly doubt the Academy is going to give him a pity Oscar for his completely forgettable performance in SLP. It would be really sad if they did.
Q: Can Alan Arkin win for Argo?
A: No.
Next question.
“You’re worried about the Ayatollah? Try the WGA.” For that cringe-worthy line alone, Arkin and Chris Terrio should just be thankful they were nominated. While Arkin was a solid source of comedic relief, this performance doesn’t hold a candle to any of the other four nominees, along with other supporting actors this year such as Jason Clarke, Ezra Miller, Leonardo DiCaprio, Samuel L. Jackson, and Tom Hardy.
One can go a little crazy in considering Oscar predictions, trying to make sense of the stats this year. But you can’t shift your eyes away from reality. There was a (surprising but understandable) reason Ben Affleck isn’t in the top 5, and there is a (somewhat understandable) reason why it is the frontrunner for Best Picture. But there is no shred of a reason why Alan Arkin would win this award.
Sasha:
The Argo screenplay mentions the Oscars, the Golden Globes, and the WGA.
Talk about salesmanship.
If Supp. Actor is one of the earliest awards presented and Arkin pulls it off, it’s going to be a long night for anyone else in categories competing against Argo, because Arkin faces probably the stiffest competition in any category–arguably.
I forgot to add, Blanchett as I recall was also considered the frontrunner that year.
No, [Arkin’s] isn’t a virtuoso performance but it’s a lot like Judi Dench in Shakespeare in Love – a premium showstopper.
I know you’re trying to look at this category objectively – and that’s a really good idea given the muddled signals – but I’d be quite surprised to see Arkin win. Your example, Dench, doesn’t seem to me to be relevant here because Dench was helped along by her previous performance as Queen Victoria and that she’d never won before. Arkin has won before, and that win arguably had as much to do with the Eddie Murphy brouhaha as it did with Arkins performance in LMS.
My reaction to the other examples cited is that these victories had clear impetus behind them other than coattails:
Blanchett’s win was for a real-life character, one revered by Hollywood; Blanchett also had goodwill from her highly regarded work in Elizabeth. Likewise, Freeman was seen as due for an Oscar as he was highly regarded and had never won one after having turned in awards-worthy performances prior to MDB. Both Paltrow and Dujardin were considered frontrunners.
Even though Argo may pick up a statuette or two along the way, my view is the more likely scenario(s) would include sound editing and score. I just don’t think Argo is strong enough to pull Arkin along with it without comparable compelling factors that led those actors cited above to an Oscar win.
I do feel, however, that it’s wise to consider the possibility given the murky circumstances.
Given how hard SLP peeps hit the campaign trail–de Niro seemingly more “obvious” than others–I think he’ll win it, but it might not lead to a BP win.
Sasha,
The Artist won five Oscars, not four.
Thanks Scotty!
Sasha,
The Artist won five Oscars, not four.
Hugo won 5 Oscars too.
Posted previously in “Who Controls the Oscars?”:
It’s not film versus film, but campaign team A against B.
Best Supporting Actor–Tommy Lee Jones has enough support to be the frontrunner, against the popular Waltz, so Weinstein campaign targets the veteran vote to erode support for Tommy, in favour of De Niro.
As some of the older members flock to De Niro, at the expense of Tommy, this strengthens Waltz. If enough go to De Niro, he wins. If not enough, Waltz is safe and comes through.
The game is to beat Tommy Lee Jones by using De Niro, so either Waltz wins or De Niro wins, it’s a Weinstein win.
So think not film versus film, or actor versus actor, etc, think of rival campaign teams.
The Argo-Weinstein coalition, they’re campaigns actually complement, not counter each other. Any negativity on their opponent inadverdantly helps their competing category. They’re on the same team.